2016 Election Prediction Thread

[Kembal]

Alright, let's get this going. We're predicting the Presidential race's electoral map, the new Senate's final count, and which party will end up controlling the House.

Presidential:

We're using maps from www.270towin.com. Go there first and fill out your map. Use the Map Options button in the lower left and make sure you're set to only Safe and Tossup - we don't care whether you consider a state likely or leaning. If you wish to give a state to a third party or independent candidate, leave it gray (like it's a Tossup). You may not leave a state as an actual tossup.

When you're done filling out your map, click share map, then click the icon to the left of map options (shows a small picture mountain). This will bring up the HTML embed code. In that code, copy the link referred to in the img src tag in the html code (it'll end with a png extension). Don't copy all the embed code. You then have two options:

1. Just paste the link in your post and use an (img) tag. That'll serve it up from the 270towin.com server.
2. Put the link in your web browser, bring up the map, download it, and then upload it in your post.

Senate: Pick final outcome (like 51-49 D, or 52-48 R). For these purposes, we'll assume that Sen. King (I-ME) and Sen. Sanders (I-VT) will continue to caucus with the Dems.

House: Pick whether the Dems or the GOP will control the House.

Predictions need to be in before Nov. 7. (for obvious reasons)

[Tgo01]

I'm 99% sure on this.

Okay good chance Florida will go the other way and MAYBE NC as well, but other than that I am 99% sure.

[time4fun]

270towin.jpg

Clinton: 352
Trump: 186

-Dems pick up Arizona by a hair by focusing a lot of attention on it for the next few weeks with their A-List.
-Trump barely takes Utah and also takes Iowa but loses the other swing states through a lack of ground game, because the RNC will stop providing anything more than the minimum amount of support needed for optics, and because Trump will continue to dig into "the entire thing is rigged" which will end up hurting enthusiasm in his own base while ticking enthusiasm up in voters who oppose him.

Senate: Dems pick up NH, IL, IN, MO, WI and keep NV. GOP keeps PA and NC by the barest thread, in part because both incumbents will start running heavily as a needed check on a Democratic President (i.e. they'll run as though Trump has already lost) Final count: D51:R49

House: Dems pick up somewhere between 13-18 seats, but the GOP retains control over the House- in large part because down ballot candidates will be given the official thumbs up to run against Clinton's Presidency in the few districts that aren't so gerrymandered that they're beyond contesting.

[Wrathbringer]

Clinton in a landslide.

[Ardwen]

I predict Trump explodes when he hears how badly he loses and runs out of Trump Tower groping pussies all down the street

[Back]

Jesus. Even in this situation Clinton will win.

[Latrinsorm]

Shamelessly copied from 538 with a little regression towards Trump. Senate Dem (narrowly), House GOP.

I'm 99% sure on this.

Okay good chance Florida will go the other way and MAYBE NC as well, but other than that I am 99% sure.

It's interesting to see you go Ohio blue and Florida red, the polls I've seen and the general demographics are vice versa. What made you go this way?

[Tgo01]

Shamelessly copied from 538 with a little regression towards Trump. Senate Dem (narrowly), House GOP.It's interesting to see you go Ohio blue and Florida red, the polls I've seen and the general demographics are vice versa. What made you go this way?

I'm God.

[Latrinsorm]

I'm God.

St. The Right Honorable Thomas Aquinas (Ret.) tells us that God wouldn't make a prediction so bad even He couldn't make it come to pass. Your claim is suspect!

[Tgo01]

St. The Right Honorable Thomas Aquinas (Ret.) tells us that God wouldn't make a prediction so bad even He couldn't make it come to pass. Your claim is suspect!

You calling my greatness into question? I can have you beheaded for that.