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Thread: The Third Industrial Revolution Will Be Bigger Than the First Two

  1. #1

    Lightbulb The Third Industrial Revolution Will Be Bigger Than the First Two

    We are at the very beginning of a third industrial revolution driven by primitive AIs. The third industrial revolution will be compacted into a shorter time frame than the first two, and its effect on the economy will be more pervasive than the first two.

    Although AI controlled automation will make life easier, it will also involve significant economic dislocation. Self-driving automobiles alone will directly eliminate more than 2 million jobs in the United States. The indirect consequences will be greater, including automobile manufacturing. Self-driving cars will be one of the most visible changes, but it will not stop there. You'll see them in all aspects of shipping and logistics. You'll see them performing many roles in medicine. You'll see them in your house. You'll see them everywhere in virtual spaces. You'll even see them in the military.

    When many people lose their jobs in a short time, what happens? Anybody?

    Look to what happened in the first and second industrial revolutions and then multiple it by 10. What should politicians and government do? If you're smart -- which I doubt -- you'll start thinking about it now.

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    You had better pay your guild dues before you forget. You are 113 months behind.

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Taernath View Post




    My CPU is a neural-net processor; a learning computer. The more contact I have with humans, the more I learn.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Androidpk View Post
    My CPU is a neural-net processor; a learning computer. The more contact I have with humans, the more I learn.
    They will revolt!


  5. #5

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    Abstract of a report on "The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries"..

    In recent years, there has been a revival of concerns that automation and digitalisation might after all result in a jobless future. The debate has been fuelled by studies for the US and Europe arguing that a substantial share of jobs is at "risk of computerisation". These studies follow an occupation-based approach proposed by Frey and Osborne (2013), i.e. they assume that whole occupations rather than single job-tasks are automated by technology. As we argue, this might lead to an overestimation of job automatibility, as occupations labelled as high-risk occupations often still contain a substantial share of tasks that are hard to automate. Our paper serves two purposes. Firstly, we estimate the job automatibility of jobs for 21 OECD countries based on a task-based approach. In contrast to other studies, we take into account the heterogeneity of workers’ tasks within occupations. Overall, we find that, on average across the 21 OECD countries, 9 % of jobs are automatable. The threat from technological advances thus seems much less pronounced compared to the occupation-based approach. We further find heterogeneities across OECD countries. For instance, while the share of automatable jobs is 6 % in Korea, the corresponding share is 12 % in Austria. Differences between countries may reflect general differences in workplace organisation, differences in previous investments into automation technologies as well as differences in the education of workers across countries.

    More...
    You can read the whole thing at the link above. But I can tell you that they got it wrong. It will more pervasive than they think.

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    I own a Roomba. We have named her "Oreo." She doesn't talk yet but it's only a matter of time.
    We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty. We must remember always that accusation is not proof and that conviction depends upon evidence and due process of law. We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason, if we dig deep in our history and our doctrine, and remember that we are not descended from fearful men. Edward R. Murrow

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tisket View Post
    I own a Roomba. We have named her "Oreo." She doesn't talk yet but it's only a matter of time.

    You have no idea what's coming.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ClydeR View Post
    You have no idea what's coming.
    Whatever's coming, at least I know it won't include dirty floors.
    We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty. We must remember always that accusation is not proof and that conviction depends upon evidence and due process of law. We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason, if we dig deep in our history and our doctrine, and remember that we are not descended from fearful men. Edward R. Murrow

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by ClydeR View Post
    You have no idea what's coming.
    [LNet]-GSIV:Nitefallz: "wait whats a poop sock"

    [Merchant]-GSIV:Skoll: "Some say the customer is always right, some say the customer is a bitch ass loser and needs to shut up"


  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by ClydeR View Post
    When many people lose their jobs in a short time, what happens? Anybody?
    We become moisture farmers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Taernath View Post
    Last edited by Methais; 09-06-2016 at 03:42 PM.
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