He didn't promise. This is like the spin that Trump called all Mexicans rapists and murderers.
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His internal polls and fox news polls that show democrats beating him in the election.
The only president with a lower approval rating than him at this time in their presidency was Carter. Add in his own polls showing him losing, and he's going to continue going off the rails. I hope not, but he's been bat shit crazy today with his fox news interview and his twitter feeds.