2016 Election Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by time4fun

If the consequence of their vote was getting Trump elected with control over the Legislative Branch and incredible power over the Judicial branch while bringing down liberal wrath on third party candidates- then they have accomplished the opposite of their vision.

They indulged in their fantasy, and the rest of us are paying for it. You can justify that on principle all you would like, but that is the lived reality.

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You are laying the blame in the wrong place. You should be mad at the Clinton campaign, they fucked this up so bad its not even funny. She lost Pennsylvania where she put a lot of effort in the final days. She lost Wisconsin because she didn't visit once since her primary win. She had to many rallies with "A listers" and assumed because people were excited about X person, they were excited about her. Even without the Green Party she would have lost in states she was expected to win.

Not to mention the shitty Primary system that democrats have, they have made it un-democratic. I really believe Sanders could have run away with this. He had the energy and enthusiasm from his base that could have matched Trumps. Instead because of this stupid system from day one she had all these votes for her that shouldn't be announced until much later in the primaries. People jumped on the bandwagon and basically fucked themselves out of the White House.

You have no one to legitimately blame but your own party.

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Originally Posted by Stumplicker

Nothing to say for or against the other parts of what you said, but there's a very real threat that the vice president can and will wield power. With Trump, that makes 45 US presidents. 8 of them have died in office. 4 of natural causes. 4 of assassination. For the mathematically disinclined, 8/45 makes 17.7%. For as polarizing a figure to be in the front as Donald Trump is, and being an* old dude, as most presidents are, there's a very real chance that Pence does take the reigns at some point. Not a huge chance, but enough that someone worried about Pence's stance on things can legitimately worry about him.

* - Corrected spelling error.

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That's not how time4fun illustrated her fears though. She said Pence is already looking forward to which rights he can dismantle, this would mean he's already looking forward to Trump dying/being impeached so he can take over and then start dismantling rights. That's a bit of a stretch I'd say.

Either that or the fear is Pence honestly thinks Trump gives a single shit about his opinion. Trump strikes me as the type of person who chose a running mate simply because he had to, he probably would have did the whole thing solo if he could, I highly doubt Pence is going to be in his ear about things.

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I have a brother who has lived here most of his life. He's here illegally from the Philippines, and today I sat around and wondered how many more times I'm going to get to see him. If Trump does what he promised- will my brother be forced to leave? He barely knows the Philippines- this is his home. Where would he even go? He barely knows the family over there. And I know some of you here can't wait for my brother to leave because you feel like he's taking something from you, and he deserves it. And some of you will just find this so hilarious. But he's my brother. And I love him. And now I find myself wondering if in two years, he'll be at Christmas with us.

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If America is this evil actor on the worlds stage, why the fuck would you want your brother to live here?

What's the opposite of the word liberal?

Answer: Logic

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Originally Posted by Tgo01

That's not how time4fun illustrated her fears though. She said Pence is already looking forward to which rights he can dismantle, this would mean he's already looking forward to Trump dying/being impeached so he can take over and then start dismantling rights. That's a bit of a stretch I'd say.

Either that or the fear is Pence honestly thinks Trump gives a single shit about his opinion. Trump strikes me as the type of person who chose a running mate simply because he had to, he probably would have did the whole thing solo if he could, I highly doubt Pence is going to be in his ear about things.

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I don't think even Pence thinks his opinion is valued. Trump isn't a "God & Guns" type of guy, so he needed a way to secure the religious vote. That's what VP picks usually are, as you know: a way to reach a voting base your candidate otherwise wouldn't reach. Regardless of what time4fun did or didn't illustrate, I personally, even having voted for Trump, am a bit scared of the possibility of a Pence presidency, even if it's only 17.7% historically. Or if I'm being technical, 45 counts Grover Cleveland twice since he split terms, so the realistic number is 18.2 (8/44). The guy has some seriously backwards views.

There's a broad belief that Pence will be running domestic policy/the country because of the VP offer made to Kasich. That contributes to peoples' belief that Pence will erode gay rights and be Trump's tool to dismantle abortion.

I tend to think Trump won't let that much go to his Vice President but who knows?

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Originally Posted by time4fun

Lucky.

I have a brother who has lived here most of his life. He's here illegally from the Philippines, and today I sat around and wondered how many more times I'm going to get to see him. If Trump does what he promised- will my brother be forced to leave? He barely knows the Philippines- this is his home. Where would he even go? He barely knows the family over there. And I know some of you here can't wait for my brother to leave because you feel like he's taking something from you, and he deserves it. And some of you will just find this so hilarious. But he's my brother. And I love him. And now I find myself wondering if in two years, he'll be at Christmas with us.

A colleague of mine showed up to work on the edge of tears today. Mike Pence is already talking about the LGBTQ rights he's looking forward to dismantling, and he's one of the most anti-gay elected officials in the country. He's responsible for one of the freedom to discrimination/freedom of religion bills. Her sister called her up sobbing, terrified of what this is going to mean for her. I broke down too- what does this mean for my other brother who happens to be gay? What about all of my friends?

I get how this is some major political victory for some people here. And how it's just hysterically funny to others. And I get how some of you just feel like this is no big deal- because for you it may not be.

But for some of us- this is beyond terrifying. I'm so scared for my family that I'm literally sick to my stomach.

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All ribbing aside, I would recommend you start the process for your brother. Better late than never. Does your family also live in CA? If so, I think you are making a mountain out of a mole hill regarding the LGBTQ. Either way, I hope you can figure out something so that your family can stay here legally.

You know what's gonna be real funny? When all the fear and bitching and moaning from the Democrats turns out to be all for nothing and literally their rights are just fine. Just calm it the fuck down. Go to work, continue to work, and go about your normal lives. The left's lived through GWB for 8 years. The right's lived through Clinton and BHO for 8 years each. The world didn't end, and it's not going to now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grD_IINiH9c

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Originally Posted by Stumplicker

I don't think even Pence thinks his opinion is valued. Trump isn't a "God & Guns" type of guy, so he needed a way to secure the religious vote. That's what VP picks usually are, as you know: a way to reach a voting base your candidate otherwise wouldn't reach. Regardless of what time4fun did or didn't illustrate, I personally, even having voted for Trump, am a bit scared of the possibility of a Pence presidency, even if it's only 17.7% historically. Or if I'm being technical, 45 counts Grover Cleveland twice since he split terms, so the realistic number is 18.2 (8/44). The guy has some seriously backwards views.

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I'd love for you to be right, but you're assuming a lot here. The GOP controls two of the three branches of government, and they have already made their intent clear. It's asking a lot of someone to say "Oh don't worry about it, I doubt anything will happen."

I get that for you this is an interesting academic discussion. The consequences if you're wrong don't fall on your shoulders- they fall on me and my family. (And a lot of others) My family isn't math. We're not a fraction or a probability. My brothers are people. They've got a lot to lose and people promising that they'll lose it. The fact that there is a credible risk here means they've already lost some of it.

You look at some of the gross, soulless responses to my family's situation. And yeah, we know that some of these people here are just genuinely bad people. But there's a whole country of them out there- many of whom want these things to happen. And even more who don't really care either way and will just let them happen. (And have)

Anyone in our situation would worry. We'd be insane not to.

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Originally Posted by Stolis

Go to work, continue to work.

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rofl