Gelston and Keller's CFB Top 10

[Keller]

Continuing our productive collaboration judging FSU/Auburn's performances in last year's MNC game (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?87295-NCAA-Football-discussion/page4), we will be bringing you a weekly top 10 of division one college football teams.

Without further ado

1. FSU - undefeated reigning champions.
2. Alabama - most talented team with the best coach in America
3. Notre Dame - outplayed FSU in Tally for their only loss
4. Auburn - Offensive mastermind with system QB that decimates weak conference opponents
5. Oregon - Only loss to a tough Arizona team; beat another top 10 team handily
6. TCU - Sneaky good; few good wins and playing like the best team in America
7. MSU - Only loss to a very good Oregon team after leading most of the game.
8. Mississippi State - Good resume on paper; fails the eyeball test in an overrated conference. Still undefeated.
9. Ole Miss - Loss to LSU really hurts their resume; here simply because they beat Alabama.
10. Ohio State - Very impressive team given loss of Braxton before the season began. Will be consensus #1 entering 2015.

[WRoss]

Where the fuck is Florida on here? I mean they beat Idaho and kinda almost kept up with Bama for 2 and a half quarters as well as giving LSU a nice win.

[Keller]

Where the fuck is Florida on here? I mean they beat Idaho and kinda almost kept up with Bama for 2 and a half quarters as well as giving LSU a nice win.

Florida isn't even in the top 10 of the SEC.

[Gelston]

Florida isn't even in the top 10 of the SEC.

It is called sarcasm.

I'm not going to do 10. They don't matter. I'm going to do 4, which may or may not change every week.

Right now I'm going with-
Miss St- Still some tough games ahead of them, but I think they can pull it off.
FSU- They'll probably stay undefeated. Even though I don't feel they are the strongest team this year, definitely not where they were last year, you can't keep out an undefeated team that is the prior years NC.
Oregon- Yep.
Auburn- I'm confident with them over Ole Miss, and I feel they can take Alabama.

Others that could move up: (In no order)
Alabama- If they beat Miss St and Auburn, then of course.
Georgia- Well, they are a bit iffy. If they stay 1 loss and win the SEC championship, I think they have a shot. Note: they have to beat Auburn to stay 1 loss.
Notre Dame- As long as they stay 1 loss, I think they have a shot. Not having a conference championship to play in hurts them, IMO.
Ole Miss- I don't think they are going to make it. They have Auburn next and then their rivalry against Miss St coming up. I don't think they are going to win either of them, but if they do they'll be going to the SEC Championship. Win that, I think they'll be in.

[Buckwheet]

Gelston,

Auburn plays Georgia regular season what chance do you think they have to go to the champ game?

If Auburn and Alabama win out to Iron Bowl but Alabama loses in a close game(field goal or less), Auburn beats Georgia handily in the normal season and the SEC Champ game. Would you see Alabama getting a shot in the play off as a 2 loss team?

[Keller]

Auburn plays Georgia regular season what chance do you think they have to go to the champ game?

If Auburn and Alabama win out to Iron Bowl but Alabama loses in a close game(field goal or less), Auburn beats Georgia handily in the normal season and the SEC Champ game. Would you see Alabama getting a shot in the play off as a 2 loss team?

I would hope so because Alabama is the class of the SEC, but I think it comes down to what everyone else does.

If FSU is undefeated, and two of Oregon, MSU, OSU, or ND are still 1-loss teams, I think Alabama gets left out.

[Buckwheet]

I would hope so because Alabama is the class of the SEC, but I think it comes down to what everyone else does.

If FSU is undefeated, and two of Oregon, MSU, OSU, or ND are still 1-loss teams, I think Alabama gets left out.

Yeah I think thats horseshit. I would love to see them test the "SEC is overrated" theory and match up ND and Alabama again even if ND is perfect and Alabama is a two loss team. I think Alabama would crush ND again.

[Gelston]

Gelston,

Auburn plays Georgia regular season what chance do you think they have to go to the champ game?

If Auburn and Alabama win out to Iron Bowl but Alabama loses in a close game(field goal or less), Auburn beats Georgia handily in the normal season and the SEC Champ game. Would you see Alabama getting a shot in the play off as a 2 loss team?

Bama can't lose anything, nor can Auburn. I really do not think a 2 loss team is going to be in the playoffs this year. It is possible, I suppose, but that is when you get down to praying for other teams to lose.

Again, it does all come down to a panel of (now 12) folks... They could vote in a 4 loss team if they wanted, but I imagine for the 1st one, they'll try to keep it safe and a minimum of controversy. If you have a bunch of 1 loss teams that have played decently all year... I don't think they'll vote in a 2 loss.

[RichardCranium]

Keller, what are your feelings on the committee's initial playoff rankings? How do they stack up to yours? Their reasoning seems pretty sound, if you ask me.

[Gelston]

Keller, what are your feelings on the committee's initial playoff rankings? How do they stack up to yours? Their reasoning seems pretty sound, if you ask me.

It makes ME feel all tingly inside.

I don't expect there to be 3 teams from one conference(let alone one division) in the final playoff list though.

[Parkbandit]

1. Mississippi State (7-0)


2. Florida State (7-0)


3. Auburn (6-1)


4. Ole Miss (6-1)


5. Oregon (6-1)


6. Alabama (7-1)


7. TCU (6-1)


8. Michigan State (7-1)


9. Kansas State (6-1)


10. Notre Dame (6-1)


11. Georgia (6-1)


12. Arizona (6-1)


13. Baylor (6-1)


14. Arizona State (6-1)


15. Nebraska (7-1)


16. Ohio State (6-1)


17. Utah (6-1)


18. Oklahoma (5-2)


19. LSU (7-2)


20. West Virginia (6-2)


21. Clemson (6-2)


22. UCLA (6-2)


23. East Carolina (6-1)


24. Duke (6-1)


25. Louisville (6-2)

Here is the current top 25 via the College Football Playoff Committee

[Keller]

Keller, what are your feelings on the committee's initial playoff rankings? How do they stack up to yours? Their reasoning seems pretty sound, if you ask me.

They are buying what ESPN is selling.

[Keller]

Yeah I think thats horseshit. I would love to see them test the "SEC is overrated" theory and match up ND and Alabama again even if ND is perfect and Alabama is a two loss team. I think Alabama would crush ND again.

I know the south is not known for its public education, but would you guys acknowledge that I agree Alabama is the class of the SEC?

Without Alabama, the SEC is the Big 12 - and there is no way we would take the Big 12 seriously this year if Kansas were their "best" team. So why are we taking the SEC seriously when Mississippi St is their "best" team?

[Parkbandit]

I know the south is not known for its public education, but would you guys acknowledge that I agree Alabama is the class of the SEC?

Without Alabama, the SEC is the Big 12 - and there is no way we would take the Big 12 seriously this year if Kansas were their "best" team. So why are we taking the SEC seriously when Mississippi St is their "best" team?

3 of the top 4 teams are from the SEC.

Not sure how you believe the SEC shouldn't be taken seriously.

Alabama isn't even one of those teams.

[Keller]

Not sure how you believe the SEC shouldn't be taken seriously.


You're too smart to actually not understand.

Early Alzheimers, or trolling?

[Warriorbird]

3 of the top 4 teams are from the SEC.

Not sure how you believe the SEC shouldn't be taken seriously.

Alabama isn't even one of those teams.

He's trolling because he's bitter about Notre Dame.

[Parkbandit]

You're too smart to actually not understand.

Early Alzheimers, or trolling?

ND and Alabama losses really hurt you.. didn't they?

I guess I have to wait a couple more days for your shart rep.. since you just got me yesterday.

[Keller]

I guess I have to wait a couple more days for your shart rep.. since you just got me yesterday.

Now I am curious, what was the rep you thought I gave you yesterday?

[Keller]

Now I am curious, what was the rep you thought I gave you yesterday?

I gave you green rep and you're not even going to tell me?

[Gelston]

ND and Alabama losses really hurt you.. didn't they?

I guess I have to wait a couple more days for your shart rep.. since you just got me yesterday.

This entire season so far has been a keller whineathon. It'll go to epic proportions when ND doesn't make it to the CFP and the SEC wins it.

[DoctorUnne]

As an impartial observer, I side more with Keller. The SEC is the best conference, but I think the ratings are too generous to it. I don't believe four of the top six teams in the country reside in the SEC. There are always going to be some teams from the SEC who have a great division record, and having those teams constantly be ranked super high without any consistency in who those teams actually are lends strength to the argument that the SEC gets high rankings by default. I'm supposed to believe that MSU and Ole Miss, two perennial cellar dwellers in the SEC who probably have lost out of conference games and bowl games over the past couple of years with largely the same team/coach, are now all of a sudden juggernauts? I find it more plausible that there's more strength in the SEC top-to-bottom than in other conferences, which creates the parity we see, but that the best teams are only marginally better than other conferences' best teams.

The right way to look at this would be to aggregate SEC out of conference games (including bowl games) against other power conferences over the past several years. Or look at talent currently in the NFL. If those analyses still scream that the SEC should have 4 of the best 6 teams and 5 of the best 11 teams then I stand corrected, but I'm skeptical. Looking only at BCS championship games is retarded because it's such a small sample size.

[Gelston]

The right way to look at this would be to aggregate SEC out of conference games (including bowl games) against other power conferences over the past several years. Or look at talent currently in the NFL. If those analyses still scream that the SEC should have 4 of the best 6 teams and 5 of the best 11 teams then I stand corrected, but I'm skeptical. Looking only at BCS championship games is retarded because it's such a small sample size.

They do side with the SEC. More NFL players are from the SEC then any other conference. More current players came from LSU then any other team.

The SEC also had more out of conference wins in bowl games for the last few years than anyone else as well.

Heck, LSU hasn't lost an out of conference game in like, 40+ games. This includes when they played Oregon and Wisconsin.

[DoctorUnne]

I believe you, but how significant is the advantage? I don't have time to run the numbers, but I don't think the winning % would be any higher than 55-60% and that's the equivalent of a 2-3 point line

[Gelston]

I'll also add in that from 1933 to 2014 the SEC has the highest win % of any conference, overall, at .588%. the next is Big 12 with .573, but that is from 1996 to now.

The fact is, the SEC gets more 5 star prospects then any other conference. That makes a difference.

The Pac 12, that most of the anti-SEC people seem to have a boner for, on the other hand, is .550 (from 1916 to now).

The SEC hasn't had a losing bowl season since 2002 either.

[Parkbandit]

As an impartial observer, I side more with Keller. The SEC is the best conference, but I think the ratings are too generous to it. I don't believe four of the top six teams in the country reside in the SEC. There are always going to be some teams from the SEC who have a great division record, and having those teams constantly be ranked super high without any consistency in who those teams actually are lends strength to the argument that the SEC gets high rankings by default. I'm supposed to believe that MSU and Ole Miss, two perennial cellar dwellers in the SEC who probably have lost out of conference games and bowl games over the past couple of years with largely the same team/coach, are now all of a sudden juggernauts? I find it more plausible that there's more strength in the SEC top-to-bottom than in other conferences, which creates the parity we see, but that the best teams are only marginally better than other conferences' best teams.

The right way to look at this would be to aggregate SEC out of conference games (including bowl games) against other power conferences over the past several years. Or look at talent currently in the NFL. If those analyses still scream that the SEC should have 4 of the best 6 teams and 5 of the best 11 teams then I stand corrected, but I'm skeptical. Looking only at BCS championship games is retarded because it's such a small sample size.

How many years of data do you believe is required to judge the 2014 Auburn team on how they are playing other 2014 teams?

It doesn't make sense to do that in the pros.. and it makes much less sense to do it for colleges.

[Latrinsorm]

As an impartial observer, I side more with Keller. The SEC is the best conference, but I think the ratings are too generous to it. I don't believe four of the top six teams in the country reside in the SEC. There are always going to be some teams from the SEC who have a great division record, and having those teams constantly be ranked super high without any consistency in who those teams actually are lends strength to the argument that the SEC gets high rankings by default. I'm supposed to believe that MSU and Ole Miss, two perennial cellar dwellers in the SEC who probably have lost out of conference games and bowl games over the past couple of years with largely the same team/coach, are now all of a sudden juggernauts? I find it more plausible that there's more strength in the SEC top-to-bottom than in other conferences, which creates the parity we see, but that the best teams are only marginally better than other conferences' best teams.

The right way to look at this would be to aggregate SEC out of conference games (including bowl games) against other power conferences over the past several years. Or look at talent currently in the NFL. If those analyses still scream that the SEC should have 4 of the best 6 teams and 5 of the best 11 teams then I stand corrected, but I'm skeptical. Looking only at BCS championship games is retarded because it's such a small sample size.Going by this site (http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/tvc/), using 2010s, and using ACC/B10/B12/PAC as the other power conferences, we get 54 and 26: 68% ± 10%. Using 2000s, we get 94 and 73: 56% ± 8%.

[DoctorUnne]

54-26 is pretty dominant

[Gelston]

Ole Miss is a two loss, they are probably knocked out of the discussion for now. Depending on what happens with other teams that is. If they don't lose anymore, and others do, they have a chance I guess.

[Keller]

So is Arkansas good, are Alabama and Mississippi State not that good, or both?

[Gelston]

So is Arkansas good, are Alabama and Mississippi State not that good, or both?

Arkansas' only loses are to other SEC teams. They aren't horrible.