Latrinsorm
09-30-2014, 03:43 PM
I've been having some very reasonable and measured conversations with Bulls supporters in the espn.com comments sections, and one point of contention is the expectations for Doug McDermott. I have very politely pointed out that a player leading the NCAA in scoring with a fortysomething 3P% is no guarantee of success; after all, Adam Morrison did the same and even pre-injury couldn't hack it in the NBA. Their combine measurements are even very similar: Morrison is slightly taller and longer, McDermott has a large jumping advantage that gives them the same fingertip height from a standing jump. I also noticed that McDermott played four years in college, and wondered how frequently such players pan out in the NBA. One way I thought of to look into this question was to chart the years in college for All-Stars (not counting injury replacements), and here's how that looks:
49 players have been awarded All-Star status in the past five years. Of these...
13* had 0 years in college,
12 had 1 year,
11 had 2 years,
7 had 3 years, and
6 had 4 years: Tim Duncan, Roy Hibbert, David Lee, Damian Lillard, Steve Nash, Brandon Roy.
*6 of these were foreign (Marc and Pau Gasol, Ginobili, Yao, Dirk, Parker), and all but Parker (who debuted at 19) probably would have played in college had they been American, but they didn't so I put them as 0. Also, just for reference the one and done rule was implemented in 2006.
On average, a player who was ever an All-Star in this span played 1.61 years in college. We can also weight the average by number of All-Star appearances, in which case the average All-Star played 1.46 years - thus the longer tenured players were on average less likely to repeat than the shorter.
Thus, while it is still possible for a player to spend four years in college and be good (Tim Duncan is one of the ten greatest of all time, Nash has two MVPs) it appears to be less likely.
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A side note to end on: which players do you suppose made the All-Star team all five years of the sample? Team of the half-decade, if you will.
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Anthony
Bosh
Bryant
Durant
Howard
James
Paul
Wade
Not a bad squad, and reinforces the main point: three players with 0 years, three with 1, two with 2, none with 3 or 4.
49 players have been awarded All-Star status in the past five years. Of these...
13* had 0 years in college,
12 had 1 year,
11 had 2 years,
7 had 3 years, and
6 had 4 years: Tim Duncan, Roy Hibbert, David Lee, Damian Lillard, Steve Nash, Brandon Roy.
*6 of these were foreign (Marc and Pau Gasol, Ginobili, Yao, Dirk, Parker), and all but Parker (who debuted at 19) probably would have played in college had they been American, but they didn't so I put them as 0. Also, just for reference the one and done rule was implemented in 2006.
On average, a player who was ever an All-Star in this span played 1.61 years in college. We can also weight the average by number of All-Star appearances, in which case the average All-Star played 1.46 years - thus the longer tenured players were on average less likely to repeat than the shorter.
Thus, while it is still possible for a player to spend four years in college and be good (Tim Duncan is one of the ten greatest of all time, Nash has two MVPs) it appears to be less likely.
.
A side note to end on: which players do you suppose made the All-Star team all five years of the sample? Team of the half-decade, if you will.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
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.
.
.
.
.
.
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.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Anthony
Bosh
Bryant
Durant
Howard
James
Paul
Wade
Not a bad squad, and reinforces the main point: three players with 0 years, three with 1, two with 2, none with 3 or 4.