Latrinsorm
08-19-2014, 11:48 AM
The Love situation has so many dimensions to it. One that I think has been under reported so far is the response of certain analysts Golden State fans: that while Love is an objectively better player than Thompson, the continuity of keeping the core intact makes the Warriors better off with Thompson than Love. On the surface this seems reasonable enough, but the Warriors only finished with the 6th best record in the West the past two years, so I wondered...
How much growth can cores achieve?
Almost all teams that acquire FMVP caliber players through the draft do so because they were terrible the year before. There are exceptions historical (Bird, Magic) and contemporary (Ginobili, Leonard), but it's easy to assume that most every core started from the basement and gradually worked their way up, thus the pedestrian performance of the Warriors thus far is of no great concern. We have no need to assume, though, we can look at the records for ourselves. If we start in 1985 (the first salary cap year) and look at the standing of championship teams in the first year their FMVP played for them, we get this list:
4 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
1 Larry Bird
1 Magic Johnson
1 James Worthy
5 Joe Dumars
7 Isiah Thomas
7 Michael Jordan
3 Hakeem Olajuwon
5 Michael Jordan
4 Tim Duncan
4 Shaquille O'Neal
1 Chauncey Billups
4 Dwyane Wade
2 Tony Parker
12 Paul Pierce
4 Kobe Bryant
11 Dirk Nowitzki
2 LeBron James
1 Kawhi Leonard
Michael is listed twice because his team technically acquired him twice. The average of these 19 is 4.16, but there's clearly a broad distribution. At the same time, the Celtics championship core was not Pierce, but Pierce Garnett and Allen. FMVP is an objective criterion (even though it is not determined objectively), so we necessarily introduce some vagueness with "core", but I think the list will meet with general approval:
1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (w/ Magic Johnson)
1 Larry Bird
1 Magic Johnson
1 James Worthy
3 Joe Dumars (w/ Dennis Rodman)
3 Isiah Thomas (w/ Dennis Rodman)
3 Michael Jordan (w/ Pippen/Grant)
2 Hakeem Olajuwon (w/ Robert Horry)
1 Michael Jordan (w/ Dennis Rodman)
1 Tim Duncan (w/ Mario Elie)
3 Shaquille O'Neal (w/ Robert Horry)
1 Chauncey Billups
1 Dwyane Wade (w/ Shaquille O'Neal)
1 Tony Parker (w/ Manu Ginobili)
1 Paul Pierce (w/ Garnett/Allen)
1 Kobe Bryant (w/ Pau Gasol)
3 Dirk Nowitzki (w/ Tyson Chandler)
2 LeBron James
1 Kawhi Leonard
I assume that the biggest stretches people identify will be Dennis Rodman for the Pistons and Mario Elie, but Rodman was 2nd on the Pistons in WS for both 89 and 90, and Elie was 3rd on the 99 Spurs. The rest I think pass by acclamation. Now the average is 1.63, and the lowest value is 3rd best record in the conference. This casts the current Warriors core in a very poor light indeed. Obviously many (w/) players on the list were obtained via draft, and it is obviously possible that another trade (or free agent) will become available for the Warriors to become a championship caliber team, and it is even possible that the Warriors with Klay Thompson could be a more attractive free agent destination than the Warriors with Kevin Love because attraction is ultimately in the eye of the beholder. But the bottom line is this:
Cores only organically grow so far. They either have to be very good to start with or require artificial growth via outside acquisition to become a great team.
How much growth can cores achieve?
Almost all teams that acquire FMVP caliber players through the draft do so because they were terrible the year before. There are exceptions historical (Bird, Magic) and contemporary (Ginobili, Leonard), but it's easy to assume that most every core started from the basement and gradually worked their way up, thus the pedestrian performance of the Warriors thus far is of no great concern. We have no need to assume, though, we can look at the records for ourselves. If we start in 1985 (the first salary cap year) and look at the standing of championship teams in the first year their FMVP played for them, we get this list:
4 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
1 Larry Bird
1 Magic Johnson
1 James Worthy
5 Joe Dumars
7 Isiah Thomas
7 Michael Jordan
3 Hakeem Olajuwon
5 Michael Jordan
4 Tim Duncan
4 Shaquille O'Neal
1 Chauncey Billups
4 Dwyane Wade
2 Tony Parker
12 Paul Pierce
4 Kobe Bryant
11 Dirk Nowitzki
2 LeBron James
1 Kawhi Leonard
Michael is listed twice because his team technically acquired him twice. The average of these 19 is 4.16, but there's clearly a broad distribution. At the same time, the Celtics championship core was not Pierce, but Pierce Garnett and Allen. FMVP is an objective criterion (even though it is not determined objectively), so we necessarily introduce some vagueness with "core", but I think the list will meet with general approval:
1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (w/ Magic Johnson)
1 Larry Bird
1 Magic Johnson
1 James Worthy
3 Joe Dumars (w/ Dennis Rodman)
3 Isiah Thomas (w/ Dennis Rodman)
3 Michael Jordan (w/ Pippen/Grant)
2 Hakeem Olajuwon (w/ Robert Horry)
1 Michael Jordan (w/ Dennis Rodman)
1 Tim Duncan (w/ Mario Elie)
3 Shaquille O'Neal (w/ Robert Horry)
1 Chauncey Billups
1 Dwyane Wade (w/ Shaquille O'Neal)
1 Tony Parker (w/ Manu Ginobili)
1 Paul Pierce (w/ Garnett/Allen)
1 Kobe Bryant (w/ Pau Gasol)
3 Dirk Nowitzki (w/ Tyson Chandler)
2 LeBron James
1 Kawhi Leonard
I assume that the biggest stretches people identify will be Dennis Rodman for the Pistons and Mario Elie, but Rodman was 2nd on the Pistons in WS for both 89 and 90, and Elie was 3rd on the 99 Spurs. The rest I think pass by acclamation. Now the average is 1.63, and the lowest value is 3rd best record in the conference. This casts the current Warriors core in a very poor light indeed. Obviously many (w/) players on the list were obtained via draft, and it is obviously possible that another trade (or free agent) will become available for the Warriors to become a championship caliber team, and it is even possible that the Warriors with Klay Thompson could be a more attractive free agent destination than the Warriors with Kevin Love because attraction is ultimately in the eye of the beholder. But the bottom line is this:
Cores only organically grow so far. They either have to be very good to start with or require artificial growth via outside acquisition to become a great team.