NBA Offseason 2014 Style

[Latrinsorm]

After Team USA's exhibition against Brazil, a few thoughts, keeping in mind that the broadcast only started when 4:08 was left in the 1st quarter:

Derrick Rose is back, and no more. This is not a good thing for Chicago. By my count Team USA put up a 61.3 ORtg in half court plays with him on the court, which means they put up a 144.3 in all other possessions. It's a small sample but it's still a big deal. I did not keep exact track of ± and can find no one who did but he played most of his minutes in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, which Team USA lost. I saw him attempt one jump shot, which he missed, and which still had the terrible form he has always displayed on jump shots.

Outside the box score, I saw several bad habits on display:

-Offensively he doesn't usually but will sometimes hang around in the space between the three point corner and the paint. This is a no-no, because it cramps the spacing. On one play in the second quarter his doing this allowed his defender to rotate over and try and draw a charge on Anthony Davis. Davis traveled anyway, but if Rose had been in the corner it would have been much too far for the defender to go: it's farther in distance, and the defender has to stay closer because 3s are worth more than 2s. Wandering one step into the long 2 point void thus gives his defender a three step head start, that's death.

-Defensively guarding the ball handler on a post entry pass to Anderson Varejao covered by I think Faried. He contests the entry pass reasonably well but as it goes by he for some reason turns to look directly at Varejao. With his head turned and his arms down it is simple for the Brazilian point guard to back cut him for an easy layup. The defensive scheme of Team USA in general was a little hard to figure out, but regardless of scheme this was a breakdown. If he was supposed to double the post, he didn't do that. If he was supposed to let Faried fend for himself or someone else double the post, he didn't do that either.

-On a rebound he completely lost the man he was supposed to box out, giving him a free offensive rebound. I didn't write down what happened next but it doesn't matter.

These aren't terribly egregious sins, but little things sum to help explain why such an electric one-on-one player has such modest on/off splits. Again the samples are small, but by my count the splits went like this:

6 points on 10 full touches (finishing the play with a FGA, FTA, TOV, or assist attempt)
11 points on 11 half touches (doing something during the play: handling, passing, screening although he didn't set a single screen)
2 points on 10 no touches (not directly impacting play)

These are troubling splits. The breakdown in full/half/no is certainly not what we expect to happen in Chicago, which does not employ Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and other ball handlers that Team USA boasts. The points per play are very much liable to change... but still, 2/10 really shows how bad an idea it would have been for LeBron to go to Chicago in 2010 or 2014. Rose has to have the ball in his hands, that's all there is to it, and even then he doesn't maximize his team's potential.

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With Durant's absence Anthony Davis is primed to be the #1 player on Team USA, but even he still has a lot of the same problems. His jump shooting form is excellent, which stands in sharp contrast to Derrick Rose's. His timing also looks excellent: on one play early in the fourth quarter he jogged towards the back court to relieve the full court pressure on Kyrie Irving, Irving broke the pressure on his own anyway giving Team USA a 4 on 3 on the other end, and instead of sprinting full speed to the basket Davis timed his first several steps so he would be in full stride with Irving, resulting in an easy alley-oop for two points. So many young guys just sprint towards the basket whenever they see an opening, Mason Plumlee for example did this about 100 times with Brooklyn last year, and while alley-oops are fairly uncommon the pick and roll is not. This sort of timing is critical to modern NBA big men, and Davis seems to have it down.

It's not all roses: his defense is still very questionable. Also early in the fourth quarter he was put in a pick and roll, tried to sink to the foul line to corral the penetration but left too early, taking a full step back towards the screener who was popping for a potential long two. This was just a terrible defensive breakdown... but he's so ridiculously long and athletic that he was able to explode back towards the point guard and reject his layup. "Aha! All's well that ends well!" you might declare, but no. He's gotta learn how to defense the pick and roll. Like I said above, the Team USA defensive scheme seemed a little haphazard so it may not just be on him, but like I also said above he's at least got to execute whatever he thinks he's supposed to. He wasn't in position to cover either man as he played it, and a cagier point guard can easily exploit a lunging defender. He also gambled for a steal later on that left Harden to defend both Splitter and Nenê at the rim, that obviously ended up badly.

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They're both going to make the 12 man roster and deservedly so, and they're both going to make numerous highlight plays. All I'm saying is that if you're looking at an 82 game season and 7 game series, all the non-highlight plays count too, and in Rose's case they weigh heavily. Davis' shortcomings only make his inevitable All Defense selection ridiculous, he will be a strong asset to any team he's on for years to come.

[Keller]

With Lebron, Durant, and Paul George not on the squad - Anthony Davis is by far the best player on that team.

[Latrinsorm]

I think James Harden's play is going to change a lot of minds, but the highlight reel is going to be Anthony Davis all tournament long.

[Keller]

Too bad none of the best players in the league could be on this team. I still think we're going to win the cup, but it's going to be a lot harder.

[Latrinsorm]

Rose misses two days of practice and a game due to knee soreness. Chicago fans will be quick to remind you this is VERY DIFFERENT from how Dwyane Wade constantly missed action because of ongoing knee soreness. I didn't get to see the game because NBATV is some old bs, but going by the box scores here's how I'd make team USA:

point Irving Wall
wing Curry Harden Thompson Korver Parsons Gay
big Davis Cousins Plumlee Drummond

Wall of course was inexplicably bounced, so I guess put Rose in his place. I haven't seen anything from Lillard, and a team with so much handling on the wing plus Boogie only needs two nominal point players. Faried is so energy much effort, but he's a butcher from the line and has no jump shot. We can get the same limitations plus legit size with Drummond, so no Faried.

[Latrinsorm]

Lillard, Parsons, Korver, and Hayward have been cut. Lillard and Hayward were never going to make it. Cutting Parsons and Korver in favor of Faried and DeRozan is moronic. Korver would have been the only guy on the team actually playing his role: third option, run around and hit 3s. DeRozan and Faried both think they should have the ball way too much in the NBA, a problem that is only magnified playing on a squad with 9 other guys who think they should have the ball more and Plumlee. Whatever. When Team USA gets shut down by a zone and people ask why we don't have enough shooting, this is why.

Rose was much better than he was against Brazil:

16 points on 10 full touches (very good), 11 points on 10 half touches (okay), 4 points on 3 no touches (good) in the half court. The first thing that jumps out is that his relative proportion of no touches dropped dramatically, which is good because he's more involved but not good if it's because the coaches think of him as a dead weight if he's not touching the ball. The Rtgs would all be excellent numbers in the NBA, but when the team otherwise has a 134 ORtg the bar is high, even taking into account that transition numbers swell that figure. Of greater concern was his ±: +5 in 10.5 minutes without Anthony Davis, compared to Anthony Davis +22 in 18.5 minutes without Rose and +2 in 4 minutes together.

Both players played some questionable defense here and there, but generally tighter than in the Brazil game. Rose's only egregious play was forcing Carlos Arroyo hard to the left, shading him by about 60º... except Arroyo was making an entry pass to the left, so his play was absolutely uncontested. Davis is still the defender he's been in the past: if you dare him to block a shot, he's going to make you regret it. If you make him defend in space on the perimeter and especially in pick and roll, you can put him on roller skates. His unbelievable length and athleticism can help him recover anyway, which ironically makes the defensive error into a spectacular-looking play, but it's a fundamental problem he needs to address if he's going to become the next #1 player in the world. He's going to be a top 5 guy regardless, just like pre-injury Amar'e, and it'll be sad if (just like Amar'e) he never figures out how to play defense with his brain.

[Latrinsorm]

Another really iffy showing by Rose.

Box score: 3 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 3 turnovers, 0 for 3 from the field, 3 of 6 from the line.
±: Rose 16 minutes -3 (!!!!!), Davis 13 minutes +33 (!!!!!), Davis and Rose 5.5 minutes -1 (!!!!!).
Team points per possession: 29/33 = .879 in the half court with Rose, 72/51 = 1.405 otherwise.
Rose on jump shots: N/A (didn't take any)

Overall for three exhibitions:
30/29 = 103.4 on full touches
43/41 = 104.9 on half touches
6/17 = 35.3 on no touches
Team USA average = 127.7

It's still a small sample, but it's really important to remember that Team USA winning by 30 doesn't mean every player was doing great. Fran Fraschilla keeps talking about how the 2010 World Championship was a springboard for Rose's 2011 MVP, and it's the same flawed reasoning. Team USA annihilated the 2010 World Championship, but Rose was not the reason. (Maybe he's being sarcastic and pointing out that Rose wasn't the reason for Rose's 2011 MVP either, but I doubt it.)

It's also fair to point out that his not being an elite player on Team USA doesn't mean he can't be an elite player in the NBA, but I think that cuts more against him than for him. James Harden and Kyrie Irving aren't playing for the Bulls next year, there aren't going to be many plays where Rose dumps the ball to someone else on the perimeter and they create a good look for the team. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson aren't going to be draining 3s off of Rose passes, Anthony Davis and Kenneth Faried aren't going to be annihilating 6'5" power forwards on the boards. Team USA does a lot to hide Rose's weaknesses, and they're still dramatically worse off with him on the court.

One other thing that could explain away the precipitous drop-off is fatigue: Rose was going at quarter speed by the end of the game, so if he gets in better shape by NBA time he'd have an advantage there... but he played 20 friggin' minutes last night, and only 5:30 in a row to close the game. My guess was he was just dogging it, which isn't a big deal being up 30 in an exhibition game, my point is just that "oh he'll get in NBA shape" is starting to sound like "oh he'll learn to make a jump shot"... excuses.

[Latrinsorm]

Quick hits on Finland and Turkey:

Finnish fans are ridiculous. They were so boisterous throughout that the cameras shook.

FIBA is ridiculous, so much so that the announcers openly accused them of corruption for Finland's participation.

Yeah it's a blowout, but Rose played well for once so it's worth nothing: +37 on 21.5 minutes, compared to Davis at +15 in 13.5 and +4 in 1 minute together. This mostly took place on the defensive end so it's not as good as it could be:
10 points on 10 full touches
17 points on 15 half
5 points on 7 no
total of 32/32 = 100.0 ORtg in the half court.

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Turkey's zone was super effective mostly because Coach K sent out really stupid lineups. Rose - DeMar - Klay - Gay - Cousins, Klay is the only shooter, of course the zone crushed them. Korver in Gay's place would have changed the game completely, and the counterclaim that Korver stinks at defense is irrelevant when Gay was just as bad.

Another odd move by Coach K was drastically changing his rotation, keeping all but Harden from the starters in for 9m of the third quarter instead of the usual 5m. Maybe this was because the reserves had logged (relatively) heavy minutes against Finland, but it felt more like he just didn't trust the reserves, and with good reason.

Rose continues to look exhausted at the end of games, even though his minutes are very low and he's doing much less than he would in Chicago.

The ± was far less kind: Rose -10 in 12.5, Davis +22 in 21, together +9 in 4.5. The half court touches were even worse:
0 points on 6 full touches (!!!!!)
21 on 19 half
13 on 6 no
total of 34/31 = 109.7, but if your nominal point guard can't finish a single play that's not a good sign. Clearly these numbers can change a lot game to game so I wouldn't read too much into them until we're through with the tournament, but like I've said before the burden of proof is on Rose being a great player, and I haven't seen anything to demonstrate that yet. Another worrisome sign is that Rose went 1 for 4 on jump shots over the two games. He's going to have to take and make a lot more to be a superstar in the NBA.

[Stretch]

I wouldn't put too much stock into what you're seeing in off season play. I think I actually saw James Harden run back on defense and not lose his guy.

[Latrinsorm]

James Harden is absolutely tailor made for the international game. His absurd foul drawing ability is even more valuable with a five foul limit, he's above average in size in that arena and therefore his gambles pay off dramatically more often (c.f. his leading the team in steals and tying for second in blocks in the exhibition schedule), he's a good NBA 3 point shooter but can really kill it from int'l range. Anthony Davis is going to lead in WS when all's said and done but Harden has a very strong chance of finishing second (although Irving is the actual second best player).

Bottom line: the best players in the last five global competitions were Durant, Durant, Wade, Carmelo, Duncan, the best player overall was LeBron. This souped up preseason may not mean everything, but it does mean something.

[Latrinsorm]

Another easy win for USA, another iffy showing by Rose. It's especially worrisome because he played with the starters in the second half. This game turned out to be an even smaller sample size than normal because for whatever reason Team USA got out in transition a lot more and therefore played a lot less in the half court, but still:
2 points on 4 full
7 points on 8 half
6 points on 8 none

Rose +6 in 2 minutes
Davis +17 in 7.5 minutes
Both +23 in 14.5 minutes

His personal ± looks great because of all the minutes with Davis (et al), the half court numbers are horrible and it's even more troubling looking into the details: Rose ran one pick and roll all game. One!!! He was on the court for sixteen half court possessions and he ran one pick and roll. Davis is a pick and roll monster, he can pop at a decent level and annihilate as the roll man, especially against a bunch of 6'8" guys who can't jump. Absolutely unguardable. Even Faried is above average in this context, where his rolls are similarly unguardable by this competition.

A lot of it is that Derrick Rose isn't really playing point guard for this team. He brings the ball over half court and almost all the time dumps it off to Harden, Curry, or Davis(!!!) to run the offense. Fran insisted that Davis functioned as a Dirk-like hub from the elbows, and although he hasn't facilitated too terribly much from there he can get his own look whenever he wants (again, against a bunch of 6'8" guys). This begs the question, though... if he's not playing point and he's scoring 5.7 points a game on 22% shooting, what the heck is he contributing to the team? That's not 22% from 3, it's 22% from the field. It's not good.

He also went 1 for 4 on jumpers, including 3 pull ups in transition, which... YOU'RE DERRICK ROSE. Your only strength is your ability to blow by people and finish, what the heck are you doing pulling up for a jump shot that you're terrible at? He also alternates between his crazy leg twisting form and a more sedate/traditional form... which is even worse than sticking with the crazy form. You can't be changing things up every time. You should obviously be always using the traditional form, but still.

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Some other thoughts:

Irving's finishing touch is AMAZING. He can fill at least that strength of Wade.

Curry's passing is TERRIBLE. I have no idea how he managed 8 assists a game last year, although his leading the league in turnovers per game probably explains it (Westbrook didn't play enough to qualify). He's constantly throwing the ball away, making bad passes. Coach K experimented with Klay Thompson as the third PG in the exhibitions, but in the tournament he's gone with Curry, which works well enough but still. Late in the second quarter there was a play where he ran a pick and roll with Davis, who of course was wide open for the alley oop, except Curry undershot the pass by 4 feet. Any other player but Davis (or Durant) it would be a turnover, but his length is so ridiculous he managed to tip it to himself and gather entirely behind the backboard. A year or two ago he'd be done, but now he's added enough strength to power through the defenders trapping him for the easy layup. Length and strength, very impressive.

The video direction or production or whatever is TERRIBLE. They routinely miss action with useless graphics or closeups of players/fans. I've never seen a basketball game in Dutch angles before, which they inexplicably used for the Team USA bench. I know Coach K is a villain, I don't need crude cinematography to convince me of that. On one of their useless graphics they listed the Group D standings with two undefeated teams: Lithuania and Solevina [sic]. Really??? You're gonna miss three typos in a single country's name? And especially one that's not even that hard to spell and is (obviously) a big deal in basketball. Pretty sad. Hopefully they'll get their reps and make it work later on.

[Androidpk]

Did you see that weird dance the New Zealand team did to try and intimidate the US team?

[Latrinsorm]

DDO used the haka as a dance emote for half-orcs, which might be super duper racist but regardless I am familiar with it. I think it's less about intimidation (especially in a sport where you can't really hit people) and more just honoring tradition.

[Latrinsorm]

Rose Report:
Decent game against the DR. 15/17 in half court, 0 for 2 on jumpers, but good ± at 22 in 12 minutes. Team USA showed crisper attacks against the zone, but a lineup of Irving Curry Harden Gay Davis is better spacing anyway.

Mediocre game against Ukraine. 26/28, 0 for 2, only +4 in 12.5 minutes. (This counts the last minute he played after Irving got hurt.)

Overall in pool play, the numbers aren't bad as it looked like they were going to be...
27 points on 36 full touches - 75.0 Rtg is terrible, but it's not catastrophically low.
69 points on 65 half touches - 106.2 Rtg is good.
26 points on 27 no touches - 96.3 Rtg is mediocre.

+59 on 60.5 minutes is quite good, working out to +39 per 40 minutes compared to Davis' +43/. Also interesting is that in the comparatively brief time they've played together they're at +60/.

5 points on 12 jumpers (.417 points per) is catastrophically bad. Josh Smith manages .538. Obviously if he drains a 3 tomorrow his figure jumps considerably, but so far no good.

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I was way off on Faried. He is cramping spacing (especially on Davis post ups), but his run around shtick is playing fantastically well in FIBA. The looming matchup with Spain ironically is going to feature way more 3 point shooting from Spain bigs (Pau and Ibaka). The only one of the five on USA is Gay, and while he's the best NBA 3 shooter he's a bricklayer from 16-23, so in FIBA terms he's the third best of the three. This puts an enormous amount of pressure on the USA perimeter players, and that's been a pretty mixed bag so far. Curry and Thompson have by far the most volume and are finally over 40% so that's good, Irving is picking his spots with 5 for 10, then Rose DeMar and Gay have combined to go 2 for 18(!!!!!) and Harden isn't much better at 3 for 13.

DeMar probably (hopefully) won't play at all and Rose will play little, so that'll help, but getting back to Faried I looked back at the other NBA players to excel in FIBA: Barkley, Wade, Durant... obviously they are all much better than Faried and therefore their better was better than his better, but there is a common thread to all four. Undersized! Barkley was a "six foot six" (6'4") power forward, Wade was a "six foot four" (6'2") shooting guard, Durant is a "240 pound" (210 MAYBE) small forward, Ken Faried is a "six foot eight" (6'6") power forward. Basketball is fundamentally easier when you're bigger relative to the competition, thus going against an undersized field offers these guys an advantage that isn't there (or is muted) for guys like LeBron or Shaq who are already the biggest at their positions. LeBron and Shaq still put up great numbers, obviously, but they didn't dominate their international teams the way they dominated the NBA.

Of course, Faried might put up 2 points and 1 rebound against Spain and wreck his averages, so who knows. But I think it's a useful thing to keep in mind when making an international team, as so many of us here do.

[Latrinsorm]

Poor game from Rose. 18/26, +2 in 15 minutes (again submarined by garbage time), 0 for 2 on jumpers. It's not turning around.

I was sure Davis would lead in Win Shares, but Faried is pushing him pretty well. He's definitely ahead in OWS, but Davis crushing it in blocks and steals probably puts him ahead enough in DWS to tip the balance. #3 right now is probably Cousins, Harden leads the team in assists but WS doesn't respect assists unless you're getting them about 4:1 to turnovers, which Harden is not doing. We'll see how it all shakes out. Harden probably would have made up ground if we played DR, but Slovenia's got nobody to slow down the bigs.

[Latrinsorm]

Decent game for Rose. Made a (two point) jump shot! Missed two others. Reached 1.000 PPP in full touches and overall touches for the first time since Finland (oddly, all four values are exactly 1.000). Decent ±. The only thing that really stood out was a play late in the third quarter:

Brings the ball up, dumps it off to Harden, floats to the right wing where the ball eventually finds him wide open for 3... for a reason. Faried (I think) is posting up uselessly on the right block, and instead of shooting or passing Rose decides to drive at his man and Faried's man at the same time. Whatever he expected to happen did not, and he coughed the ball up for a turnover. This isn't the last time we'll see a play like this, and it's the kind of thing that's keeping Rose from being an elite player. He's got to learn how to shoot a jump shot or how to play defense, and while it's hard to say quantitatively it seems like the odds are against him doing so after age 26 and four seasons in the league.

[Latrinsorm]

Interesting game for Rose. ± very good, half court offense atrocious, jumpers atrocious. Also a very odd rotation used by Coach K:

Curry and Thompson get in foul trouble, and instead of using DeRozan at the 2 or going big with Harden 2 and (e.g.) Gay 3, he decides to use Rose at the 2... which with no third point guard means Irving has to stay in the game when he'd normally be subbed out for Rose. That isn't the odd part, although it does further bury the idea that we should have brought Drummond instead of Korver/Parsons/etc. The odd part is that Rose played 0 minutes in the fourth quarter to Irving's 10(!!!). Irving played 35 minutes for the game to Rose's 15, wouldn't it have made more sense (especially with the game WELL in hand) to have played Rose the last ~5 minutes of the fourth quarter? That would put Irving at a much more manageable 30 and Rose at a still very modest 20. Really odd.

Stats: 18/28 in the half court and 0/3 on jumpers (not counting the end of first half heave for obvious reasons), but +14 in 11.5 minutes. His ± per 40 minutes is now 36 to Davis' 41, which in this sample size is almost certainly too close to call, which is a real surprise to me. My guess is the following:

1. Derrick Rose is an average defender at best, but that puts him ahead of Kyrie.
2. Rudy Gay is an average shooter at best, but that puts him ahead of Faried.
3. Anthony Davis has as many blocks as the next FOUR(!!!) Team USA members put together, but he's not a defensive upgrade over Cousins.
4. International benches are really, really, really weak.

Rose's 1 for 8 tonight puts him at 15 for 55 on the tournament for 27.3%. From 1992 to the present, the lowest FG% for any Team USA player with as many FGA is Mark Price(!!!) at 25/82 = 30.5%. Rose is averaging 7 FGA per game, if he goes 4 or better for 7 he'll pass Price, which is very plausible. Still, I think it's a pretty bad sign that Rose's comeback tour boils down to "it's plausible he won't have the worst FG% in 22* years". His jump shot might be even worse than it was pre-injury too, 3 for 20 is 15% ± 16%.

*I've mentioned before how FIBA World Cup stats only go back to 1994 so we could have had some bricklayers in those tournaments. The earlier Olympic tournaments were 30 second shot clocks too so the "55 FGAs" requirement rules almost everyone out, but I can't find anyone from 1964-present with more than 13 FGAs who has shot so poorly.

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Highlight for me was a little Boogie being Boogie and Jonas making the worst (elbow) and then best (gtfo of there) decision I've ever seen him make:

https://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/865933972.gif?1410464957

[Latrinsorm]

Good news - Rose didn't sustain any injuries!

Bad news - Rose posted by far the worst FG% of any professional in Team USA history (25.4% to 30.5%), by far the lowest WS of any professional with as many minutes played (.152 to .343), shot 3 of 22 on jump shots which incredibly means he has probably gotten worse than his poor pre-injury form (same with his unbelievable .254 free throw drawing rate), had the worst ± of any rotation player on the 2014 squad, led the team in turnovers despite playing the seventh most minutes, finished 11th on the team in total rebounds.

Rose never deserved the MVP. Some people still insist he did, and the same people will insist that his form is of superstar caliber because look at how quick he is! He's very very quick! And this skill remains... but so too do the horrible jump shooting, the inability to draw fouls, the good but not great finishing at the rim, the average defense. People expecting a Chicago renaissance are going to be very disappointed, and it is a real shame that they'll eventually turn (hard) on Rose. He didn't vote for himself for MVP, he didn't say the 60 win teams were his doing, he certainly didn't ask for multiple catastrophic knee injuries that robbed him of the time needed to develop an overall game. Sad story.

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Happy story! Tournament MOP went to Irving because asking people to vote on that award minutes after the last game ends is moronic. Of course they're only going to remember the transcendent performance in the last game. Here are the Win Shares for Team USA 2014:


1.265 K. Faried
1.221 J. Harden
1.137 K. Irving
1.061 A. Davis
1.050 K. Thompson
0.957 S. Curry
0.843 D. Cousins
0.491 R. Gay
0.411 D. DeRozan
0.215 A. Drummond
0.197 M. Plumlee
0.152 D. Rose
It's not a complete travesty that Irving got the award. Win Shares only uses the box score, so it can be fooled by players who get a lot of steals and blocks but don't actually play good defense (Harden, Irving) and it can also be fooled by players who have very strong individual offensive numbers but cripple their teammates' offense due to spacing/passing ineptitude (Faried). You could really give it to any of those 3 and have it be within reason:
-Faried led the team in rebounds by a pretty wide margin of 11, was third in points, shot 64% from the field.
-Irving led the team in minutes assists and ast/tov ratio, second in ±, shot 56% from the field and an incredible 61% from 3 on 23 attempts.
-Harden was the team captain and most bearded, led the team in points steals and ±, was second in assists, drew nearly as many free throws as #2 and #3 combined. His shooting %s are a very appealing 53% and 41% but obviously he loses that to Irving.

I am very surprised Davis didn't do better in this tournament, but it doesn't change my opinion of him. He's an offensive centerpiece and a block machine, he can play for a decade on the strength of that alone, and he's only going into his 3rd NBA year.

Six weeks to the NBA!!!

[Androidpk]

Considering your high level of psychosis and fondness of black male athletes I can only deduce that you smoke fat blunts 'err night.

[Latrinsorm]

Herr night? Kerr night? Aaon Baaa night?

[Androidpk]

Hmm, I did nazi that coming. You were reich the first time.

[Latrinsorm]

Should LeBron take games off to rest?

Yes, of course. What are you, a maroon?

.

LeBron is going into his twelfth season. In NBA history, the most minutes played over a player's first 11 seasons (regular season + playoffs) goes like this:


42719 Wilt Chamberlain
41502 Elvin Hayes
40281 Bill Russell
39993 LeBron James
39056 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
38630 Oscar Robertson
37909 Karl Malone
36645 John Havlicek
36197 Elgin Baylor
35623 Walt Bellamy
The three players ahead of LeBron played 9 full seasons after their respective eleventh years. None of them reached the PER of their eleventh year. 0 for 9. Five of the six players behind LeBron played 19 full seasons. Kareem and Baylor managed to retain that value for one year, the rest had none: 2 for 19. All told, 2 for 28. The only outlier is Karl Malone, who didn't even reach his peak until his twelfth year but went down all 6 years following it. He is perhaps the best physical comp to LeBron, and the Kyrie-Stockton comparison is suggestive so there is some very short term hope there, but the outlook is still pretty bleak.

Notably not on that list is Tim Duncan, who just completed his sixteenth season. There are only twenty players in NBA history with a sixteenth season at all (of 2000+ MP), and of them only one other posted a PER within 90% of their peak (John Stockton). Duncan last played 82 games in his fifth season, since then he has played 884 of a possible 968 and hasn't been over 37 minutes a game since 2003. Why is 37 minutes a game important? Because LeBron has never been below it.

As an added bonus, LeBron is the all time leading player in professional Team USA minutes played with 708. You might expect his fellow four-time Team USA player Carmelo Anthony to be second, but he amassed only 558 compared to Chris Paul's 591. (David Robinson is probably second in overall Team USA minutes played, as he played two as an amateur, but records are incomplete for the 1986 season so it's hard to say for sure. A mere 20 minutes a game would secure him second place, though.)

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Sitting players works.
LeBron's workload is literally unprecedented in NBA history when you combine league and international play.
LeBron should take games off to rest.

[Latrinsorm]

There's always someone who wants to insist Rose deserved the 2011 MVP. Today I found someone who made the argument that Dwight had the best stats in 2011, which struck me as odd because it's completely wrong, and in the course of looking up every stat I could (LeBron led them all, natch) I came across a website that has ± for the years from 2003-present, and I thought the list was interesting:

2003 - Dirk
2004 - Garnett
2005 - Duncan
2006 - Tayshaun
2007 - Duncan
2008 - Pierce
2009 - LeBron
2010 - LeBron
2011 - LeBron
2012 - LeBron
2013 - LeBron
2014 - Curry

[RichardCranium]

No Chris Paul. List is shit.

[Latrinsorm]

No Chris Paul. List is shit.CP3's strength is in on/off. His teams were negatives (usually hugely so) when he sat in New Orleans and even the first LA year. When that's the case you can't compete with the other elite players who happen to be on the elite teams. Curry is an interesting outlier which has to do with Rev. Jackson exhibiting an unusually high level of collinearity in his rotation: the starters played with bench players much less than the NBA average.

[Latrinsorm]

Durant out two months.

If he's out through exactly December 11th, he'll miss 22 games and therefore can only play 60. The only MVP in league history to play that few (in non lockout years) was Bill Walton in 1978 and the Thunder probably aren't going to go 9-13 while Durant's out and 50-10 when he's in. So the question becomes, who's going to be the MVP?

A team almost always has to be a top 2 seed to garner an MVP player, so...

Cleveland has LeBron, but between his reduced touches, general decline, and general boredom with voting for him he's unlikely.
Miami has Bosh, and people are going to want a reason they were so wrong about Miami, but he's never cracked 11 Win Shares and it's going to take more than that.
San Antonio is still San Antonio, they didn't even have anyone break 8 last year.
OKC only finished 2 wins ahead of the Clippers last year, and a 20 game Durant absence combined with 20 more CP3 games will easily push them behind...
The Clippers! Blake for 2015 MVP, you heard it here first. He finished 3rd last year anyway, and look at the names behind him:

Noah - nope, the few Chicago MVP votes are going to Rose.
Harden - MAYBE if Houston really puts it together, but they've got a long way to go.
Curry - nope.
Paul - nope, voters hate Paul for some reason.
Al Jefferson - nope, Lance is getting all the Charlotte votes.
Paul George - nope, DNP. (Also, PAUL GEORGE finished behind AL JEFFERSON in MVP voting. smh.)
Aldridge - nope, Lillard is getting all the Portland votes.
Love - nope, on Cleveland.

The only thing in Blake's way is vote splitting with Paul and as stated above the voters just don't care for Paul. Another possibility is that LeBron is averages a 20/10/8 or the Cavs win 65 or something, but I doubt it.

[Wrathbringer]

Durant out two months.

If he's out through exactly December 11th, he'll miss 22 games and therefore can only play 60. The only MVP in league history to play that few (in non lockout years) was Bill Walton in 1978 and the Thunder probably aren't going to go 9-13 while Durant's out and 50-10 when he's in. So the question becomes, who's going to be the MVP?

A team almost always has to be a top 2 seed to garner an MVP player, so...

Cleveland has LeBron, but between his reduced touches, general decline, and general boredom with voting for him he's unlikely.
Miami has Bosh, and people are going to want a reason they were so wrong about Miami, but he's never cracked 11 Win Shares and it's going to take more than that.
San Antonio is still San Antonio, they didn't even have anyone break 8 last year.
OKC only finished 2 wins ahead of the Clippers last year, and a 20 game Durant absence combined with 20 more CP3 games will easily push them behind...
The Clippers! Blake for 2015 MVP, you heard it here first. He finished 3rd last year anyway, and look at the names behind him:

Noah - nope, the few Chicago MVP votes are going to Rose.
Harden - MAYBE if Houston really puts it together, but they've got a long way to go.
Curry - nope.
Paul - nope, voters hate Paul for some reason.
Al Jefferson - nope, Lance is getting all the Charlotte votes.
Paul George - nope, DNP. (Also, PAUL GEORGE finished behind AL JEFFERSON in MVP voting. smh.)
Aldridge - nope, Lillard is getting all the Portland votes.
Love - nope, on Cleveland.

The only thing in Blake's way is vote splitting with Paul and as stated above the voters just don't care for Paul. Another possibility is that LeBron is averages a 20/10/8 or the Cavs win 65 or something, but I doubt it.

Durant could be back in a week with marijuana, but the organization doesn't want to risk him developing schizophrenia over that time period. Wise call.

[Drew]

My guess is Durant or Rose for MVP this year.

[Wrathbringer]

My guess is Durant or Rose for MVP this year.

It'll depend on who smokes more weed between now and then, but I'm leaning towards Rose.

[Androidpk]

It'll depend on who smokes more weed between now and then, but I'm leaning towards Rose.

I'm leaning towards Rose as well since its easier for him to get weed where he lives.

[Wrathbringer]

I'm leaning towards Rose as well since its easier for him to get weed where he lives.

I dunno, I just spent an inordinate amount of time researching this claim and I've managed to locate what amounts to a buttload (roughly) of circumstantial/anecdotal poorly correlated facts?/evidence? of something possibly related to a similar type of study that was poorly conducted, but kind of has to do with what we're discussing that seems to maybe imply that Durant gets weed more easily. I didn't ask for these gifts.

[Latrinsorm]

My guess is Durant or Rose for MVP this year.You think he'll recover that quickly? Or voters just won't care?

After the 2011 debacle I can see it going two ways: double down and give Rose another to justify the fraudulent first, or give Rose an unfairly high bar to REALLY prove it. I don't think the Bulls will be good enough to make it a reasonable argument anyway, though.

[Latrinsorm]

Durant could be back in a week with marijuana, but the organization doesn't want to risk him developing schizophrenia over that time period. Wise call.Too true.
I didn't ask for these gifts.Two trues.

[Androidpk]

I dunno, I just spent an inordinate amount of time researching this claim and I've managed to locate what amounts to a buttload (roughly) of circumstantial/anecdotal poorly correlated facts?/evidence? of something possibly related to a similar type of study that was poorly conducted, but kind of has to do with what we're discussing that seems to maybe imply that Durant gets weed more easily. I didn't ask for these gifts.

Even IF he has an easier time scoring Derrick Rose's networth is $10m higher. If look at the historical values of marijuana in their respective living areas you can clearly see that Rose's extra networth can buy a lot more than Durant can, even with Oklahoma's cheaper prices. I'm not sure why you can't understand this.

[Latrinsorm]

Just saw a stat c/o Royce Young: Westbrook played 41 minutes without KD last year. He took 35 shots. :o

Looked it up myself for more info, and the stats I found say 39 minutes, 33 shots, 17 FTAs, 4 turnovers... 44.9% USG.
For some insane reason, he played another 39 such minutes in the playoffs: 27 shots, 18 FTAs, 3 turnovers... 44.3% USG.

Between Russ and Kobe, get ready for some CHU-CKING in the West this year. Unfortunately they don't play each other until Dec 19th, and Durant will probably be back by then.

[Wrathbringer]

Just saw a stat c/o Royce Young: Westbrook played 41 minutes without KD last year. He took 35 shots. :o

Looked it up myself for more info, and the stats I found say 39 minutes, 33 shots, 17 FTAs, 4 turnovers... 44.9% USG.
For some insane reason, he played another 39 such minutes in the playoffs: 27 shots, 18 FTAs, 3 turnovers... 44.3% USG.

Between Russ and Kobe, get ready for some CHU-CKING in the West this year. Unfortunately they don't play each other until Dec 19th, and Durant will probably be back by then.

I expect he will be back by then. He owns a dispensary in Denver for situations such as this.

[Androidpk]

Denver Nuggets :lol:

[Wrathbringer]

Even IF he has an easier time scoring Derrick Rose's networth is $10m higher. If look at the historical values of marijuana in their respective living areas you can clearly see that Rose's extra networth can buy a lot more than Durant can, even with Oklahoma's cheaper prices. I'm not sure why you can't understand this.

Maybe Rose can buy more, but that doesn't mean he can smoke more. Durant' s superior lung capacity should lead to a sizable advantage per toke, getting Durant way higher in less time with less weed. It's going to be a chess match, for sure, but you must admit my logic is flawless.

[Androidpk]

Maybe Rose can buy more, but that doesn't mean he can smoke more. Durant' s superior lung capacity should lead to a sizable advantage per toke, getting Durant way higher in less time with less weed. It's going to be a chess match, for sure, but you must admit my logic is flawless.

Granted Durant does have increased lung capacity but while he is huffing and puffing Rose is eating edibles that have far more THC content. The law of science says you can eat a cookie faster than you can smoke a blunt and as we all know science doesn't lie.

[Wrathbringer]

Granted Durant does have increased lung capacity but while he is huffing and puffing Rose is eating edibles that have far more THC content. The law of science says you can eat a cookie faster than you can smoke a blunt and as we all know science doesn't lie.

Please. How can you continue this farce? The science says thc is absorbed more quickly by the lungs, and besides, rose is in trouble when the munchies hit as by that time he's already full and Durant has already cleaned out the cabinets anyway, being stoned so much faster. Clear advantage to durant for mvp. Do you even weed, bro?

[Androidpk]

Please. How can you continue this farce? The science says thc is absorbed more quickly by the lungs, and besides, rose is in trouble when the munchies hit as by that time he's already full and Durant has already cleaned out the cabinets anyway, being stoned so much faster. Clear advantage to durant for mvp. Do you even weed, bro?


http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/10/11/355126926/frozen-poop-pills-fight-life-threatening-infections

I rest my case.

[Wrathbringer]

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/10/11/355126926/frozen-poop-pills-fight-life-threatening-infections

I rest my case.

You make a strong argument. I'd somehow managed to forget about poop pills, but I think as long as durant stays hydrated throughout, rose won't be able to down enough poop to compensate since he's also downing edibles. I did some quick math. Here it is:

448+;($354:7)= 4

I'll accept your resignation now.

[Gelston]

I calculated it comparing all inflations. The numbers are in no way arbitrary, they are the result of a regression - go ahead and run it yourself if you think I made it up. Comparing the lowest and highest inflation makes no sense because this is a second order polynomial. If the lowest and highest are equally far from the mean, such a polynomial predicts equal GDP change. It so happens that our sample has the highest much further from the mean than the lowest (we've had much higher inflation than deflation) so the comparison makes even less sense."it is lower than the desired rate of 2%"You say that buuuut then you say...There's nothing to be sorry about. I do hope you see the humor in this juxtaposition: when someone without your managerial experience criticizes your managerial process, you're OUTRAGED that they would dare. When you without your scientific experience criticize my scientific process, YOU'RE outraged that I would dare. That's pretty funny! No?Well, a few things.
1. My analysis used quarters rather than years, because Moar Data is Good.
2. You should use real (inflation-adjusted) figures. That gives you eight years with GDP decline, but it doesn't really matter because...
3. You keep looking at subsets of the data. This is bad, because Moar Data is Good.
4. I'm sure someone besides me HAS figured this out by now. How else do you think the Fed arrived at their target?
5. What discussion do you speak of?Least squares regression is a process where (essentially) the total error is minimized. You can't see this in qualitative terms (such as "even remotely"), you have to get down in the numbers nuts and bolts.Really? Okay.
1. I analyzed inflation vs. real GDP growth.
2. You criticized this on the grounds that GDP doesn't represent everything about an economy.
3. To that end, you cited a source that said that.
4. But I didn't use GDP, I used real GDP growth.
5. Which your source says necessarily tells us about the state of the economy.

[Androidpk]

You make a strong argument. I'd somehow managed to forget about poop pills, but I think as long as durant stays hydrated throughout, rose won't be able to down enough poop to compensate since he's also downing edibles. I did some quick math. Here it is:

448+;($354:7)= 4

I'll accept your resignation now.

Foiled.

[Latrinsorm]

I calculated it comparing all inflations. The numbers are in no way arbitrary, they are the result of a regression - go ahead and run it yourself if you think I made it up. Comparing the lowest and highest inflation makes no sense because this is a second order polynomial. If the lowest and highest are equally far from the mean, such a polynomial predicts equal GDP change. It so happens that our sample has the highest much further from the mean than the lowest (we've had much higher inflation than deflation) so the comparison makes even less sense."it is lower than the desired rate of 2%"You say that buuuut then you say...There's nothing to be sorry about. I do hope you see the humor in this juxtaposition: when someone without your managerial experience criticizes your managerial process, you're OUTRAGED that they would dare. When you without your scientific experience criticize my scientific process, YOU'RE outraged that I would dare. That's pretty funny! No?Well, a few things.
1. My analysis used quarters rather than years, because Moar Data is Good.
2. You should use real (inflation-adjusted) figures. That gives you eight years with GDP decline, but it doesn't really matter because...
3. You keep looking at subsets of the data. This is bad, because Moar Data is Good.
4. I'm sure someone besides me HAS figured this out by now. How else do you think the Fed arrived at their target?
5. What discussion do you speak of?Least squares regression is a process where (essentially) the total error is minimized. You can't see this in qualitative terms (such as "even remotely"), you have to get down in the numbers nuts and bolts.Really? Okay.
1. I analyzed inflation vs. real GDP growth.
2. You criticized this on the grounds that GDP doesn't represent everything about an economy.
3. To that end, you cited a source that said that.
4. But I didn't use GDP, I used real GDP growth.
5. Which your source says necessarily tells us about the state of the economy.I never noticed how rugged your hair is, Gelly. It's... it's really something.

[Androidpk]

I calculated it comparing all inflations. The numbers are in no way arbitrary, they are the result of a regression - go ahead and run it yourself if you think I made it up. Comparing the lowest and highest inflation makes no sense because this is a second order polynomial. If the lowest and highest are equally far from the mean, such a polynomial predicts equal GDP change. It so happens that our sample has the highest much further from the mean than the lowest (we've had much higher inflation than deflation) so the comparison makes even less sense."it is lower than the desired rate of 2%"You say that buuuut then you say...There's nothing to be sorry about. I do hope you see the humor in this juxtaposition: when someone without your managerial experience criticizes your managerial process, you're OUTRAGED that they would dare. When you without your scientific experience criticize my scientific process, YOU'RE outraged that I would dare. That's pretty funny! No?Well, a few things.
1. My analysis used quarters rather than years, because Moar Data is Good.
2. You should use real (inflation-adjusted) figures. That gives you eight years with GDP decline, but it doesn't really matter because...
3. You keep looking at subsets of the data. This is bad, because Moar Data is Good.
4. I'm sure someone besides me HAS figured this out by now. How else do you think the Fed arrived at their target?
5. What discussion do you speak of?Least squares regression is a process where (essentially) the total error is minimized. You can't see this in qualitative terms (such as "even remotely"), you have to get down in the numbers nuts and bolts.Really? Okay.
1. I analyzed inflation vs. real GDP growth.
2. You criticized this on the grounds that GDP doesn't represent everything about an economy.
3. To that end, you cited a source that said that.
4. But I didn't use GDP, I used real GDP growth.
5. Which your source says necessarily tells us about the state of the economy.

I knew underneath that layer of redneck there was a scholar hiding. Butt yourself a corona.

[Gelston]

I knew underneath that layer of redneck there was a scholar hiding. Butt yourself a corona.

You just called Latrin a scholar.

[Androidpk]

You just called Latrin a scholar.

I also told him to put a beer up his ass. It balances out.

[Androidpk]

Lebron forgets what team he's on and sets a pick for ex-teammate. I have it on very good authority that Lebron was high as a fucking kite and was immediately drug tested after the game. His mom isn't going to be happy about this. Are we witnessing Lebron's complete meltdown here?

[Drew]

You think he'll recover that quickly? Or voters just won't care?



I think if you give it to someone in the West you have to give it to Durant, anyone else will seem ridiculous in comparison. Harden for MVP? I think not.

I think the West will be very competitive and drag each other down, whereas the East is wide open and I think the Cavs won't have a very good year which will preclude LeBron from winning it. If the Bulls make a really strong run in the East you have the "He showed up LeBron" angle and the "Congrats we didn't totally blow it with the original award" angle. Plus he might end up with really gaudy stats because of the weak conference. So I think it's Durant or Rose. My money is on Durant.

[Latrinsorm]

I guess we'll have to see how long he's really out. Some medicos are saying it could go up to 3 months, there's just no way you can give MVP to a guy who plays that little.

[Latrinsorm]

I also came here to post a hilarious shot chart from the Laker game from John Schuhmann (by way of Zach Lowe):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bz0wLyDCQAEYk_J.png

Three three pointers attempted! None from the corners! Cats and dogs living together! Mass hysteria!

The Lakers are attempting 8 per game so far in the preseason. That works out to 656 in an 82 game season, which would be the lowest mark since the 2003 Jazz and 2000 76ers... and Carlos Boozer ain't exactly Karl Malone, and 36 year old Kobe Bryant ain't exactly prime AI. Note also that this isn't even prorating the 2012 season. All 30 teams attempted more three pointers in 66 games than the Lakers could in 82! Byron, Byron, Byron.

[Gelston]

What inquiry are you suggesting, specifically? That rats can develop schizophrenia? That we need brain cell analysis to confirm a diagnosis that is 99% reliable?Direct quote from Zammit: "a shared risk factor (be it biological, genetic, or through personality traits) for developing schizophrenia and for using psychoactive substances does not adequately explain the association observed." He explicitly and definitively shuts down that criticism.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v456/johnnyoldschool/CigsCancer_zps84f34961.png

Here's your population study, WB: rate of smokers and rate of lung cancer deaths. Explain to me how this is good evidence.

[RichardCranium]

Go home drunk, you're Gelston.

[Gelston]

Go home drunk, you're Gelston.

Go Cranium, you're Druchard.