NBA 2014 Offseason: Redecision, Dedecision, Indecision?

[Latrinsorm]

LeBron once again looms over the NBA offseason, but free agency doesn't start until July 1st (although opt-out dates start about a week earlier), so instead let's look at a cool stat:

NBA players with 20+ WS and 30+ PER on a team with 60+ wins.

.

.

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annnd, time.

Michael Jordan 1991.
LeBron James 2009.

Obviously that was Michael's coronation, and a well-deserved one. Looking back at the reporting of LeBron's loss to the Magic offers quite a lot of hilarity:

"Howard had seemed to lack maturity both on and off the court. In this series, the 23-year-old center has grown up before our eyes." Sheridan (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-090531)

"Orlando's total of 62 3-pointers in the conference finals tied the NBA record for 3-point field goals in a six-game playoff series. The Warriors had canned 62 3s in their upset victory over the Mavericks in the first round of the 2007 playoffs." Elias Sports (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-090531)

I'd been meaning to do this for awhile, and this factoid cinches it: I'm going to go back through all the NBA series and see if 3Pr has any correlation with upset rate. If so, it puts an interesting spin on favorites that win with unusually high 3Pr.

[Warriorbird]

OMG. What team will Latrin become a fan of next?

http://deadspin.com/lebronapocalypse-1595238462

[SHAFT]

I hope he goes to tel aviv. They're pretty good. Screw the nba. Plus, you have the added bonus that your house could be bombed at any moment living in Israel. Imagine the excitement!

[Keller]

We already have an offseason topic.

http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?90451-The-Decision-DO-OVER

@anticor - please delete this duplicate thread.

[Latrinsorm]

LeBron opts out, as I predicted. It was nice of him to give Carmelo a few days of being the most highly sought free agent, though.

Duncan opts in, indicating that he won't retire, but it's a long way to October. I say it's 50/50 whether he comes back next year.
So what does Miami's starting 5 look like going into next year?

C - Joel Anthony
PF - Bosh
SF - Beasley
SG - Lance Stephenson
PG - Norris ColePat Riley and I traded Anthony to the Celts to get Toney Douglas. Anthony has a player option for next year that he will almost certainly take, because he's not getting $3m on merit. Plus he has to get signed by the Mavs somehow so we can get another Sad Dirk tweet.

I saw an espn poll earlier today saying Chicago was the best fit for Melo too, which... guys. LeBron James wouldn't be able to make that fit work, and he creates for others. Carmelo did take more catch and shoot shots, and although he wasn't at LeBron's elite level he was still quite good. This sounds like a good thing, and it would be on a real offense, which the Bulls have 0% chance of having with Rose and Carmelo sharing the floor.

[Sorcasaurus]

....Pat Riley and I traded Anthony to the Celts to get Toney Douglas....

Two things:

1) use of I!?

2)Please keep him away from Boston

[Latrinsorm]

Incredible but true fact: Kevin Love is younger than Steph Curry (seven months). He's also played 13 less regular season minutes and as you may have heard has never made the playoffs. Very interesting when considering Golden State's interest in him.

[Latrinsorm]

Glad to see you finally made it into the official 2014 NBA offseason thread.Glad to be here, boo.

[Latrinsorm]

Spencer Hawes is 26 and an unrestricted free agent. He made 42% of his 3s last year, and Zach Lowe reported today that 61% (http://grantland.com/features/kevin-love-klay-thompson-golden-state-warriors/) were contested, so it's not like he was simply cashing in on the extraordinary Philadelphia offensive machine. His defense was credible in Philly at +1.6 (+ is bad, but it's only a little +) before becoming atrocious in Cleveland for some reason. He also made his teams very slightly worse at rebounding on both sides, but still: the only players to match his volume and % from 3 were Afflalo, Calderon, Curry, Danny Green, Korver, Patty Mills, and Klay Thompson. You might notice that none of them are centers.

Now, he hasn't gotten a big contract yet and might like to be untouchably rich for the rest of his life, but he has made $28.6m so far in salary alone which is a pretty damn good start. He could very significantly shift the balance of power for a lot of teams: what if Indy can get him for an exception (~$5m) and replace the offensively inept Ian Mahinmi? They won't, because they haven't quite caught up to the "three point shot" concept yet, but what if they did? Totally reshapes their team.

I would very strongly focus on him if I was Golden State. Love is clearly better, but he's not better than Hawes and Thompson and not paying Kevin Martin.

[SHAFT]

Incredible but true fact: Kevin Love is younger than Steph Curry (seven months). He's also played 13 less regular season minutes and as you may have heard has never made the playoffs. Very interesting when considering Golden State's interest in him.

Cause he puts up fat numbers yo

[Androidpk]

Please keep him away from Boston

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[SHAFT]

.

I always knew Boston fans were losers. Of course Boston fans don't want the best player in the world.

[Androidpk]

I always knew Boston fans were losers. Of course Boston fans don't want the best player in the world.

Michael Jordan is long retired. I'll gladly welcome Ray Allen back though.

[Latrinsorm]

I didn't notice before but LeBron opting out will keep him from making $20m in a year at least for now, which he so far has never done. I wondered: who has? The NBA salary cap first reached $20m in 1996, and wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest-paid_NBA_players_by_season) has tallied the highest player salaries since 2000 ($34m cap). Jordan famously made $30m+ in 97 and 98, which in retrospect seems pretty impossible. Some other bizarre salaries include Patrick Ewing going from $4.5m to $18.7m to $3.0m to $20.5m from 95-98, it was apparently the Wild West back then when it came to salaries. I looked through some other credible suspects (Malone, Robinson, Payton, Barkley) but none made it. This makes the list:

9 Shaquille O'Neal
7 Kevin Garnett
6 Kobe Bryant
3 Tim Duncan
2 Dirk Nowitzki, Jermaine O'Neal, Michael Jordan, Tracy McGrady (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1997-06-29/sports/9706290380_1_salary-cap-salary-cap-bulls)
1 Allen Iverson, Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Jason Kidd, Joe Johnson, Juwan Howard, Patrick Ewing, Rashard Lewis, Shawn Kemp, Stephon Marbury

Total of 44 seasons for 19 guys.

[Latrinsorm]

And it's go time.

Knicks trade (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11135060/dallas-mavericks-acquire-tyson-chandler-raymond-felton-new-york-knicks) Chandler and Felton to the Mavs for Calderon, Dalembert, Larkin, Ellington, and two 2nd round picks, because nothing says "Carmelo you should stay" like trading away the team's second best player for Calderon and a (collective) washing machine. I like Calderon and think he's a great role player on any contender, but he's not at Chandler's level, and the Knicks only add to their surplus of small players. Last year their bigs were Carmelo, Kenyon Martin, Chandler, Amar'e, and Bargnani. The Zen master looked at that (and Kenyon Martin presumably retiring) and decided he should further downgrade the bigs in favor of adding even more good shooting / poor defense guards. Their current roster looks like:

point Calderon, Larkin, Prigioni
wing Smith, Shumpert, Hardaway, Ellington, Carmelo (maybe), World Peace
big Dalembert, Amar'e, Bargnani

How are you supposed to make a rotation out of that? 5 of your 6 best players are guards, the other is a small forward. At the same time, Phil may be going for the Rio Grande style offense where you turn every game into a track meet and bomb 3s 50% of the time, which would be amazing to watch at least.

It's a bad move for the Mavs too. Chandler is an upgrade over Dalembert, but Calderon provided crucial spacing to a team starting Ellis and Marion. The trade leaves Dirk and Vince Carter as the only credible shooters on the team. At the same time, Dallas has huge cap space and so the team they had last year could be totally irrelevant, plus they don't have to play Felton.

.

It was rumored that Cleveland was willing to trade the #1 pick to Orlando for the #4, #12, and Arron Afflalo. Instead the Magic traded (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11139109/denver-nuggets-acquire-arron-afflalo-orlando-magic-according-sources) him for Evan Fournier and the #56, because... huh? He's a good defender and competent on offense with a legit 3 point shot, it's insane that they ended up with a backup PG and a worthless pick for him. It doesn't seem like a great move by the Nuggets either, because they need a heck of a lot more than Arron Afflalo to make the playoffs in the West, let alone compete for a title.

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The Rockets have finally traded (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11137117/houston-rockets-agree-trade-omer-asik-new-orleans-pelicans-according-sources) Asik, to the Pelicans for their first round pick next year with some protections. It's a fine move by both teams: the Rockets couldn't make Asik and Howard work, the Rockets want cap space, the Pelicans were playing Greg Stiemsma as backup center last year. Davis is a poor jump shooter, but compared to Dwight Howard he's Chris Bosh so they can play Davis and Asik together if they feel like it.

[Kembal]

Now to trade Lin, clear out a little bit more cap room, and go get LeBron. Gonna miss Asik though....he was a good center.

[Ker_Thwap]

I always knew Boston fans were losers. Of course Boston fans don't want the best player in the world.

Boston fans watched him quit on his own team in the playoffs when he was at the height of powers.

[Latrinsorm]

Boston fans watched him quit on his own team in the playoffs when he was at the height of powers.It's pretty incredible how people remember things. The black mark on his record is 15 points, 6 boards, 7 assists? He got to the line 12 times by quitting? Really? Crazy.

The Heat trade up 2 spots which seems pointless, but they only give up the 56th pick and 2nd rounder from 2019 so whatever. Shabazz Napier played 4 years of college so he should be ready to go, plus if they let Chalmers go they'll carve out another few million in cap space. Upgrading the sixth best player on the team isn't a big deal, no matter how much LeBron likes him.

[SHAFT]

Boston fans watched him quit on his own team in the playoffs when he was at the height of powers.

What does that have to do with lebron being the best player in the world right now? If he signed with Boston, are you telling me Boston fans would be upset?

[Ker_Thwap]

It's pretty incredible how people remember things. The black mark on his record is 15 points, 6 boards, 7 assists? He got to the line 12 times by quitting? Really? Crazy.


You left out turnovers stat boy. You have no soul. You watch a man's face, his body language, you see his deer in the headlights panic as he turns it over, you watch him not even bothering to foul someone in a three possession game, he pouted when after average 1.5 fouls a game for the season while bulling his way violently over defenders in solid position, he suddenly got 3 in one game. He quit, quit, quit. He's a quitting quitter, once a quitter, always a quitter.

Don't be a quitter enabler.

[Ker_Thwap]

What does that have to do with lebron being the best player in the world right now? If he signed with Boston, are you telling me Boston fans would be upset?

Boston fans are not Borg. But yes, I'd be upset. It's less about winning, and more about enjoying the long term players on your team. Hondo, Yaz, Dewey, Cashmen, etc. Call me a dinosaur, but these were the kind of guys I grew up watching.

[Latrinsorm]

You left out turnovers stat boy.If 3 turnovers is a sign of quitting, I mean...
You have no soul.All the better for my objectivity, no? ;)
You watch a man's face, his body language, you see his deer in the headlights panic as he turns it over, you watch him not even bothering to foul someone in a three possession game, he pouted when after average 1.5 fouls a game for the season while bulling his way violently over defenders in solid position, he suddenly got 3 in one game.Now I'm not sure what game you're talking about, and I think that says a lot about your perspective on the situation. The Celtics won game 5 by 32 points, but in game 6 (which was a three possession game at the end) he only had 2 fouls. It sounds like you're remembering his two worst moments from the series and ignoring the other 254 minutes, which is questionable science.
He quit, quit, quit. He's a quitting quitter, once a quitter, always a quitter. Don't be a quitter enabler.Everybody who plays is going to lose, and lose badly. Either everybody's a quitter or one mediocre game is insufficient evidence.

[Ker_Thwap]

If 3 turnovers is a sign of quitting, I mean...All the better for my objectivity, no? ;)Now I'm not sure what game you're talking about, and I think that says a lot about your perspective on the situation. The Celtics won game 5 by 32 points, but in game 6 (which was a three possession game at the end) he only had 2 fouls. It sounds like you're remembering his two worst moments from the series and ignoring the other 254 minutes, which is questionable science.Everybody who plays is going to lose, and lose badly. Either everybody's a quitter or one mediocre game is insufficient evidence.

It's not science, that's your problem. It's a competition. It's easy to compete when you're doing well. Why should I limit myself to only one game of the two that he quit? We watch sports until the bitter end, because every once in a while there's an epic comeback. Statistics suggest that it's prudent to leave the arena as fans, because the probability of winning has been historically zero. But being a fan/player means it's not over til the fat lady sings. Even if your team loses, you stick around and applaud at the end because they gave the effort. It's respect for the game, for the fans and for your opponent.

[Latrinsorm]

It's not science, that's your problem. It's a competition. It's easy to compete when you're doing well. Why should I limit myself to only one game of the two that he quit?Because he recorded 19 rebounds in game 6, as many as the two highest Celtics combined. You can take the easy way out on field goals and passes, but there's no way to lackadaisically collect 19 rebounds.
We watch sports until the bitter end, because every once in a while there's an epic comeback. Statistics suggest that it's prudent to leave the arena as fans, because the probability of winning has been historically zero. But being a fan/player means it's not over til the fat lady sings. Even if your team loses, you stick around and applaud at the end because they gave the effort. It's respect for the game, for the fans and for your opponent.This went to kind of a weird place. LeBron was instrumental in just such a comeback in game 6 of last year's Finals. Everyone remembers that the Heat were down 5 and Ray Allen hit a 3, but obviously some other stuff had to happen to result in a tie game: specifically, LeBron hit a 3 and Kawhi went 1 of 2 from the line.

Even in the 2010 series, LeBron played 42 minutes in game 5 and 46 in game 6, so your criticism is misapplied even if we assume for the sake of argument that it is valid in general.

[Ker_Thwap]

Because he recorded 19 rebounds in game 6, as many as the two highest Celtics combined. You can take the easy way out on field goals and passes, but there's no way to lackadaisically collect 19 rebounds.This went to kind of a weird place. LeBron was instrumental in just such a comeback in game 6 of last year's Finals. Everyone remembers that the Heat were down 5 and Ray Allen hit a 3, but obviously some other stuff had to happen to result in a tie game: specifically, LeBron hit a 3 and Kawhi went 1 of 2 from the line.

Even in the 2010 series, LeBron played 42 minutes in game 5 and 46 in game 6, so your criticism is misapplied even if we assume for the sake of argument that it is valid in general.

It's possible to record 19 rebounds, and still quit at the end. I never suggested he didn't have talent. I just think the guy is a crappy paragon of sportsmanship from what I've seen. I don't really watch him when he's not playing the Celtics. So from a Boston fan POV, he's a giant whining child who I don't want on my team.

[Latrinsorm]

It's possible to record 19 rebounds, and still quit at the end. I never suggested he didn't have talent. I just think the guy is a crappy paragon of sportsmanship from what I've seen. I don't really watch him when he's not playing the Celtics. So from a Boston fan POV, he's a giant whining child who I don't want on my team.Okay, in the last 3.5 minutes of game 6 LeBron had 4 points (on a rim attempt and drawn foul), 1 rebound, 1 assist. Prorate that out to 46 minutes and you get 53 points, 13 rebounds, 13 assists... which is worse than his actual line, therefore by your argument he was trying harder at the end than otherwise.

The not fouling that rubbed you the wrong way so much was on a steal by Rasheed Wallace, and the Cavaliers successfully denied a fast break attempt... obviously, because Rasheed Wallace hadn't run past the 3 point line on either side of the court the entire season. Why should LeBron have fouled a decent free throw shooter instead of forcing a half court possession? Put another way, your proof of effort is making a dumb play. Hard to take that seriously.

[Ker_Thwap]

Okay, in the last 3.5 minutes of game 6 LeBron had 4 points (on a rim attempt and drawn foul), 1 rebound, 1 assist. Prorate that out to 46 minutes and you get 53 points, 13 rebounds, 13 assists... which is worse than his actual line, therefore by your argument he was trying harder at the end than otherwise.

The not fouling that rubbed you the wrong way so much was on a steal by Rasheed Wallace, and the Cavaliers successfully denied a fast break attempt... obviously, because Rasheed Wallace hadn't run past the 3 point line on either side of the court the entire season. Why should LeBron have fouled a decent free throw shooter instead of forcing a half court possession? Put another way, your proof of effort is making a dumb play. Hard to take that seriously.

Cherrypick your stats all you want. You're deliberately ignoring my point, as always. Watch Mike Brown walking onto the floor screaming for his team to foul, and watch the team ignore him. Watch LeBron not bothering to rotate on defense, watch LeBron not even trying to get open on an inbounds pass. They don't keep stats on crappy lack of effort plays. Watch his 9th turnover off the game. Watch some video of Larry Bird hustle his ass off on a 3 possession game with a minute and a half to go during any regular season game ever, then come back and tell me that James made you proud.

(The non foul was on Allen and Pierce, both clutch free throw shooters. The entire Cavs team dropped back and let Pierce take 23 second off the clock and take an uncontested three. You don't get quittier than that.)

[Latrinsorm]

Watch Mike Brown walking onto the floor screaming for his team to foul, and watch the team ignore him....like I said, they made the right play. I can't think of a better metric than Mike Brown thinking you should do the opposite. :D
Watch some video of Larry Bird hustle his ass off on a 3 possession game with a minute and a half to go during any regular season game ever, then come back and tell me that James made you proud.Yeah yeah, and apples were sweeter, and kids these days are spoiled rotten. What do you think about a game from 1991 (http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/199112250CHI.html) against the Bulls, where Bird managed 8 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists on a measly 34 minutes, and played so limply that he didn't attempt a single free throw? Or how about when the defending Greatest Team of All Time got crushed in the 4th quarter by the Moncrief-less Bucks (http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198612200MIL.html), with Bird leading the team into defeat with 12/6/5, 5 turnovers, 5 personal fouls, and 27% from the field? But let me guess, he really hustled to get all those points and all the turnovers/misses were blown calls, because the refs were really in the bag for Milwaukee.
(The non foul was on Allen and Pierce, both clutch free throw shooters. The entire Cavs team dropped back and let Pierce take 23 second off the clock and take an uncontested three. You don't get quittier than that.)Pierce is an average 3 point shooter, you have to run the numbers on stuff like this. Being generous he's got a 40% chance to make that 3, that's 1.2 points. Fouling Allen means 1.8 points, fouling Pierce means 1.6. 59 seconds isn't an eternity but it's plenty of time to make the smart play.

[Warriorbird]

...like I said, they made the right play. I can't think of a better metric than Mike Brown thinking you should do the opposite. :DYeah yeah, and apples were sweeter, and kids these days are spoiled rotten. What do you think about a game from 1991 (http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/199112250CHI.html) against the Bulls, where Bird managed 8 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists on a measly 34 minutes, and played so limply that he didn't attempt a single free throw? Or how about when the defending Greatest Team of All Time got crushed in the 4th quarter by the Moncrief-less Bucks (http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198612200MIL.html), with Bird leading the team into defeat with 12/6/5, 5 turnovers, 5 personal fouls, and 27% from the field? But let me guess, he really hustled to get all those points and all the turnovers/misses were blown calls, because the refs were really in the bag for Milwaukee.Pierce is an average 3 point shooter, you have to run the numbers on stuff like this. Being generous he's got a 40% chance to make that 3, that's 1.2 points. Fouling Allen means 1.8 points, fouling Pierce means 1.6. 59 seconds isn't an eternity but it's plenty of time to make the smart play.

My mama taught me that two wrongs didn't make a right.

[Latrinsorm]

My mama taught me that you can't judge a book by its cover. That is, those dramatic moments we remember aren't necessarily indicative of the larger body.

Is Robert Horry a good jump shooter? Of course, remember that shot he made? And that other one? He's a great shooter... well, except for that he's below average.

[Warriorbird]

My mama taught me that you can't judge a book by its cover. That is, those dramatic moments we remember aren't necessarily indicative of the larger body.

Is Robert Horry a good jump shooter? Of course, remember that shot he made? And that other one? He's a great shooter... well, except for that he's below average.

So this is really all about how much you love Lebron? It's okay. Own it.

[Latrinsorm]

I love LeBron so much that I won't accept false criticism of him.
I love Larry so much that I won't accept false praise of him.

Did I just blow your mind?

[Androidpk]

I love LeBron so much that I won't accept false criticism of him.
I love Larry so much that I won't accept false praise of him.

Did I just blow your mind?

Lebron James smokes weed.

[Wrathbringer]

Lebron James smokes weed.

Then he's obviously a psychopath. We'd all be safer with him in protective custody, or under universal surveillance.

[Androidpk]

Then he's obviously a psychopath. We'd all be safer with him in protective custody, or under universal surveillance.

Gotta confiscate his guns too.

[Ker_Thwap]

So letting him take an uncontested three is smarter than letting him take a contested three?

Are you even old enough to have watched Larry? Of course he had bad games, but I defy to use your universal surveillance skills and locate video evidence of him not hustling on the court. You can define a player by statistics, but you'll only get a fraction of what that player represents.

[Latrinsorm]

So letting him take an uncontested three is smarter than letting him take a contested three?Pierce (like Wade) has an exceptional shot fake. Unlike Wade he's a competent jump shooter, but you still can't bite on his shots. Giving up a 3 is better than giving up 2 foul shots, giving up 3 foul shots would be horrible.
Are you even old enough to have watched Larry? Of course he had bad games, but I defy to use your universal surveillance skills and locate video evidence of him not hustling on the court. You can define a player by statistics, but you'll only get a fraction of what that player represents.Easily done:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNpJXDPnQTE

The Celtics clear out the floor for a one on one isolation play, Bird goes 1 on 4 and forces a horrible percentage shot, flops on the floor looking for a call, and can't be bothered to get up in case Ainge saves the ball (in which case someone on the Celtics has to score) or the Pistons save the ball (in which case they have a 3 on 2 break the other way and can easily dribble the time out). Typical hero ball, typical whining when he doesn't get the call. This Bird guy can't hold a candle to Jerry West.

Then he makes a good play and DJ makes a better one, so all is forgiven. But not all of us forgot.

[Keller]

Literally 6,999,999,999 people out of 7,000,000,000 think Larry Bird made a much better play than Johnson.

Homerism hath no fury like Latrin after Lebron scorned.

[Latrinsorm]

He steals a Westbrook-level telegraphed pass, good for him, but he's falling out of bounds and away from the basket with no timeouts and 4 seconds left. DJ is 6 feet further away from the basket than Dumars but reacts instantly, gets to the hole first, and makes the layup.

DJ rules, #1 Conference Finals MVP

[Keller]

Dumars closes on Bird and doesn't try to defend Johnson.

Stop digging, Latrin. Eccentricy is one thing, but you're one in 7 billion here.

[Latrinsorm]

Dumars closes on Bird and doesn't try to defend Johnson.

Stop digging, Latrin. Eccentricy is one thing, but you're one in 7 billion here.What are you talking about? Laimbeer is the only guy on Bird for the pass. I know the video is grainy, but come on.

[Latrinsorm]

Everyone on the Heat has now opted out, including Alonzo Mourning and Anthony Mason. The Big 3 are discussing (http://espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/story/_/id/11152348/lebron-james-dwyane-wade-chris-bosh-discuss-potential-contract-terms) amongst themselves, blah blah blah, but I thought this little nugget was incredible:

"James, 29, has never been the single highest-paid player on his team in his 11-year NBA career."

Incredible!!! Salary data from bygone eras gets a little sketchy, but let's compare to Duncan's run with the Spurs:

Duncan 11 (2002-2012)
Robinson 4
Parker 1
Ginobili(!) 1

Can you imagine if the roles were reversed? If LeBron had routinely been the highest paid player while Duncan had never been? I guarantee that this isn't the first time you would have heard about it... and you can take that to the bank.

[Latrinsorm]

Rondo being floated around in trade rumors for the millionth time, so I thought I'd look him over compared to Rubio...

Neither fare very well in career composite metrics, although Rondo's are better: 17.1 to 15.4 PER, .13 to .09 WS/48 (15 and .1ish are average).

Neither have been very durable the past 3 years: 121 games for Rondo, 180 for Rubio (of a possible 230), both missing significant time with a torn ACL.

Both are bad jump shooters, although again Rondo is slightly better. Rondo showed flashes in the long 2 range in 2013, but due to the small sample his true talent level may only have been 42%. Again over the last 3 years, Rondo generated 0.849 points on 16+ foot jumpers and Rubio 0.797.

Both are oddly incompetent at the rim: Rondo finishes at a decent % but is absolutely allergic to drawing fouls, Rubio finishes at a catastrophically bad % but draws fouls like LeBron. This is made even more odd when you notice that Rondo continues to be an atrocious 60% shooter from the line while Rubio is a decent 80%. Why wouldn't you foul Rondo, and why would you foul Rubio? I'll tell you why: racism.

The rest of the box score is pretty similar for them: good but not incredible ast/tov ratio, very good rebounding for point guards, steal magnets.

The on/offs are very surprising: the Celtics have been very narrowly better without Rondo over the past 3 seasons. That only adds up to about a season so the noise is there, but it's not enough to make him a good ± guy. With the same sample size caveats Rubio is at +7.6, which is very respectable. With how similar they are in every other metric, plus Rubio being 4 years and ~11k minutes younger, plus Rubio making ~$7m less, plus Rondo's temperament question marks, it makes a lot more sense to me to go after Rubio.

Atlanta would be a really interesting fit. Like Miami they can have a non-shooter at a traditional shooting position because they shoot so well from 3-5, their coach Budenholzer is from the Spurs who are famous for teaching people how to shoot (Parker, Kawhi), they've got a ton of cap space if the Wolves want to tie someone else (Kevin Martin) to Rubio for a full rebuild.

[Latrinsorm]

LeBron James allegedly wants a max (http://espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/story/_/id/11156634/lebron-james-miami-heat-wants-maximum-salary) offer, but maybe only for next season and maybe the whole contract can be less than 4 years... which makes it pretty odd because he could have opted in to that much over the next two years anyway, and he still doesn't really have any better options than Miami.

Conspiracy theory: he fully intends to sign with the Heat on a sub-max deal (such as 4yr $60m), he's letting these (plausibly deniable) rumors go out to throw a monkey wrench in everyone else's plans. Like a trick play, you don't even have to run it in a given game for it to be useful because the other team has to spend time practicing against it, and time is finite.

Conspiracy theory 2: he's daring Wade to demand the max too, and when the Heat say "no" Wade will leave in a huff. I think Wade's got plenty of mileage left as a good player - there were only 28 guys with 20+ PER and 5+ WS last year, of whom only 3 were shooting guards (Wade, Ginobili, Harden). Incidentally, Lowry was another guy who did so.

[Atlanteax]

Conspiracy theory 2: he's daring Wade to demand the max too, and when the Heat say "no" Wade will leave in a huff. I think Wade's got plenty of mileage left as a good player - there were only 28 guys with 20+ PER and 5+ WS last year, of whom only 3 were shooting guards (Wade, Ginobili, Harden). Incidentally, Lowry was another guy who did so.

You crack me up...

[Keller]

Latrin thinks Lebron may be chasing Wade out of town. That's not going to sit well with the pre-2010 Heat fans, of which Latrin is not.

[Latrinsorm]

You crack me up...Look at it this way: which team's second best players are better than Wade? OKC, SA, LAC, maybe Houston and DC... so he's clearly better than 24 other options. Wade used to clearly be the best second best player and is no longer, but those days being behind him doesn't mean he's a bum. Also worth reiterating for the millionth time is that Wade and LeBron are friends IRL, which makes Wade's twilight much more graceful (on- and off-court) than certain other marquee shooting guards who play in coastal states for championship franchises.
Latrin thinks Lebron may be chasing Wade out of town. That's not going to sit well with the pre-2010 Heat fans, of which Latrin is not.I think CT1 is more likely. As Atlanteax demonstrates, there's no groundswell of public opinion in Wade's favor. The Heat could cut ties with him under any circumstances really.

[Ardwen]

The Heat have no actual fans, other then the Dolphins no Florida teams have anything other then bandwagon jumpers, when they win they are popular when they lose noone gives a damn.

[Atlanteax]

Lebron insisting on max salary is certainly going to make things interesting...

[Keller]

Look at it this way: which team's second best players are better than Wade? OKC, SA, LAC, maybe Houston and DC... so he's clearly better than 24 other options.

That is an unfair comparison because Wade isn't the second best player on his team.

[Keller]

I think CT1 is more likely. As Atlanteax demonstrates, there's no groundswell of public opinion in Wade's favor. The Heat could cut ties with him under any circumstances really.

No offense, but your a bandwagon out-of-state fan. The folks that were Heat fans before 2010 adore Wade.

Drew - can I get an amen?

[Warriorbird]

The Heat have no actual fans, other then the Dolphins no Florida teams have anything other then bandwagon jumpers, when they win they are popular when they lose noone gives a damn.

I may not particularly like either set but I think Gators and Seminoles fans are pretty loyal. I agree with you on a lot of the Heat fans though.

[Ardwen]

I was referring to the pro teams not the college teams, the college teams are why there so few pro fans in the state. That and most of the residents being transplants.

[Parkbandit]

The Heat have no actual fans, other then the Dolphins no Florida teams have anything other then bandwagon jumpers, when they win they are popular when they lose noone gives a damn.

Exactly this. This is a very college sports state, but the only time we sell out pro sports is when they are doing very well (and even then, not always... Rays...) or when a team comes in with a crazy fanbase (Yankees, Bears, PACKERS, etc..)

[Ardwen]

Doesn't help when you have owners like the marlins' owners screwing the people out of tax dollars either.

[Latrinsorm]

No offense, but your a bandwagon out-of-state fan. The folks that were Heat fans before 2010 adore Wade.

Drew - can I get an amen?They already bought jerseys, so they're dead to Riley. Dead!

In point guard news, Nelson was waived and Irving was max extended. I really hope Miami doesn't go after Jameer, hopefully they learned from the Bibby fiasco.

[Latrinsorm]

Lowry and Collison locked up.

Lance wants more than the $9m/yr the Pacers are offering him. An NBA win is worth about $1.4m, last year Lance produced 7.4 Win Shares, 7.4*1.4 = $10.4m. The deal is also for 5 years, which is good for a somewhat unstable player for security, but bad if he cleans himself up and becomes much more productive. Plus his Win Shares benefit heavily from being on the best defense in the league that was slightly worse when he played, it's very plausible he would be less productive elsewhere.

Pau might go to OKC(!!!!!). Huge potential. He can't be the best player on a championship team anymore, and the apparent recovery of his stats last year was an illusion due to over-use. His window as a useful player is short so pairing him with Durant might seem short sighted, but not if Durant leaves in two years. Pau provides critical spacing and passing - he's not elite at either even for a big man, but is a huge upgrade over their current centers in both. It all comes down to not playing Perkins, though, and does anyone trust Brooks to do that?

Doc wants Pierce. Oh, Doc...

[Latrinsorm]

Pau gets recruited by a bunch of teams, destresses by listening to Chopin. Pau's the best. How could Kobe not like him?

[Atlanteax]

Kobe does, and while there is mutual respect, Pau probably finds it stressfully wearing to be expected to bring "A game" each night to Kobe's expectations.

[Atlanteax]

In the meantime, would like to see Pau join brother in Memphis, but OKC works too.

[Stretch]

It took a few days, but I've managed to convince myself that it's a great idea to lock in the Polish Hammer for five years, and that he is different from 95% of other centers who age in dog years after 33.

Now I'm just holding my breath in the hopes that LA is dumb enough to shell out eight figures for Ariza...

[Latrinsorm]

Hawes to the Clips. Big deal.
-LA finished only 2 games behind OKC and played them extremely close in the second round: 6 games decided by 5 total points.
-Their 10 man rotation had 3 bigs: Blake, DeAndre, Big Baby.
-Davis could only manage 14 minutes a game at a brutal -8.3 per 48 minutes.
-His long jumper the past three years was worth .691 points per attempt compared to Hawes' 1.013, and that's probably underselling it because he's only developed the 3 this past season.

Also probably worth noting from that series: Darren Collison was awful (-11.2 per 48), although CP3 being the best starter (+9.9) might be a hidden variable there.

[Kembal]

I get this terrible feeling that the Rockets are going to trade away Lin and Asik to clear cap room and get nothing for it. I don't mind them losing Lin, but having to give up a first round pick to get rid of him would be terrible. Losing Asik is a blow defensively.

[Latrinsorm]

Even if they only keep Parsons that'll be a big win. He's Kawhi Leonard equivalent.

[Latrinsorm]

Lebron - Cleveland
Bosh - Houston
Melo - LAL
Wade - Cleveland
Lance - Miami
Hayward - JazzWhy would LeBron want Wade in Cleveland? Much better idea to bring Bosh.
Phoenix would also make a ton of sense, but I think it's Cleveland. Last I checked the Suns didn't have the best young PG, the next Lebron James, a future-lottery team (Miami)'s first round pick next year, and Memphis's first round pick next year (not to mention their own). Oh, and Lebron and his agent are born and bread Ohioians.

It's almost like Lebron got out of Cleveland to let them stockpile assets/talent so he could return to a cheap, young nucleus.They're certainly cheap and young, but are they any good? It's a team that finished 5 games out of the playoffs in the East. Their only above average players are Irving and Varejao, and Varejao is getting sent out if Cleveland wants two marquee guys. Dion Waiters is atrocious on offense, posting the worst USG-PER of any player with 2000+ MP last year (outpacing even Josh Smith and Evan Turner). Anthony Bennett literally took wins away when he played. Wiggins was an average 3 shooter in college, he's going to kill spacing in the NBA for at least a couple years. They have a rookie head coach and an owner who 24 hours ago still had a bitter polemic against LeBron uploaded to the team's official site.

You look at that and think "yeah, that'll work!"? They have picks after next year, great. If he comes back to Miami with the big 3, they are the prohibitive favorite to get to the Finals, which (1) puts him alone in history with Bill Russell with 5 straight and (2) gives him at least a 40% chance at another ring right now. The clock's ticking. Did you know LeBron has already played more regular season minutes than Magic Johnson? That by the end of next year he will have passed Laimbeer, Dumars, Dantley, Baylor, Goodrich, Bird, David Robinson, Latrell Sprewell, hall of famer Mitch Richmond? That he's already 17th in career playoff minutes played? All of which are American dreams. All of which are American dreams. All of which counts on the odometer, cyborg or no.

Phoenix has Dragic, Gerald Green (who would obviously move to 6th man), and the Morrises, plus Plumlee as a defensive anchor, and a slightly more proven coach (but an equally loathed owner). That's what a good nucleus looks like. Their problem is that they're in the West (which gets even worse if Carmelo joins with Kobe to lock down the 8 seed for years to come), but they also have another $10m in cap space, so they can at least pretend they can sign two marquee guys without losing anyone.

[Androidpk]

Phoenix also has some of the best trainers and medical staff in the entire league.

[Latrinsorm]

Bosh can get a max deal in Houston.

Wade could maybe get the MLE in Milwaukee.Oh, you!
Reports from Lebron's camp is he wants Andy in Cleveland. Not sure where you're getting your information about him being moved in LBJ signs, but it is wrong.He's getting sent out if Cleveland wants TWO marquee guys because he's their only high salaried trade chip: Irving has to stay, nobody wants Jack, Bennett, or Thompson. If they add only LeBron he can stay.
Whatever team Lebron signs with is the prohibitive favorite to make it to the finals. By the way - the big 3? LBJ, Bosh, and . . . James Ennis? Not sure who you're counting as the Miami big 3.Absurd. The Cavs last year put up 34.1 WS to 33 wins, the Heat 54.6 to 54. Okay. LeBron was 15.9, leaving 38.7 from the rest of the Heat, so he's already throwing away 4.6 wins. Tack on that Deng, Hawes, Bynum, and Miles were worth 7 and are gone now and that's 11.6 wins he's got to make up on top of the 15.9 he produced last year just to get back to the 2 seed. No player has ever produced 27 WS in a single season, and LeBron's not going to start now. Remember that he only reached the Finals once with the hapless Cavs of yesteryear, who also offered him one solid player (Ilgauskas = Irving) and 8 bench players.
Say you move Thompson, Bennett, Jack, and 2 firsts for Kevin Love and Gorgei Dieng.I wouldn't put anything past ol' Flip, but that's a horrible, horrible trade for Minnesota. It would be horrible for Love alone. How about this:

Miami trades Norris Cole and a 2019 2nd rounder for Love.
Miami signs and trades Chalmers for Goran Dragic.
Miami signs Pau Gasol to the veteran's minimum.

Hey! Now there's a great team! Yeah! Be realistic, Kelly.

[Latrinsorm]

Annnnnd Josh McRoberts (the guy CHARLOTTE has drafted over in the top 10 of the last 2 drafts) has verbally agreed to sign with Miami for the FULL mid-level exception.

I would pay a LOT of money to produce "The Presentation" where America gets to watch Lebron react to Pat Riley's presentation of his plan for Miami to surround Lebron with championship talent.Losing the full mid-level is tough, but McRoberts is a good role player. Stretch big, credible defender, excellent passing efficiency, not afraid to throw a cheap shot (critical against the Spurs and their history of dirty play).

[Ardwen]

Cleveland has extra draft picks package them with Jack or whichever other stiff they want and they are tradeable. especially the heat pick if James and Bosh leave.

[Stretch]

$5M for a washed-up Paul Pierce. I must say that's much better than paying Ariza $10M a year to go into a post-contract year slump.

[Keller]

$5M for a washed-up Paul Pierce. I must say that's much better than paying Ariza $10M a year to go into a post-contract year slump.

There is no way the Bullets pay that kind of money to Ariza. I put the odds greater than 50-50 that they sign KD in 2016. Wall, Durant, Beal - THAT is a Big 3.