NBA 2014 Playoffs! [Archive] - The Gemstone IV Players' Corner

Latrinsorm

04-18-2014, 01:59 PM

There have been 64 NBA champions since 1950. Every one of them fell into one or more of the following categories:

1. Top 2 seeds on each side of the bracket.
2. A losing record in games decided by 5 points or less.

Since 1984, when the NBA went to the modern playoff system of 16 teams and no byes, the average champion has had winning percentages of 57%, 69%, 75%, and 83% in games decided by 5 points and less, 6-10, 11-15, and 16+. The regular season champion in close games has never won the title without also being the regular season champion overall and in 6+ games. This year those teams are Spurs, Spurs, Thunder. Close games don't matter, but I guarantee you will hear someone cite San Antonio's 10-1 record in them or Indy's 15-5, because They Just Know How to Win.

With all that in mind, here are the contenders:
Pacers, Heat, Spurs, Thunder
Clippers(!), Raptors(!!!), Hawks

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The top 8 teams in each conference by record in games decided by 6+ points go like this:
East: Heat, Raptors(!!!), Pacers, Bulls, Nets, Wizards, Bobcats, Knicks (Carmelo #1 MVP)
West: Thunder, Clippers, Blazers, Spurs, Rockets, Warriors, Suns(!), Mavs
(and the top 4 in the West are above the Heat)

Which makes the bracket go like this:

Pacers over Hawks
Heat over Bobcats
Raptors over Nets
Bulls over Wizards

Pacers over Bulls
Heat over Raptors

Heat over Pacers

Spurs over Mavs
Thunder over Grizzlies
Clippers over Warriors
Blazers over Rockets(!)

Blazers over Spurs(!!!)
Thunder over Clippers

Thunder over Blazers

Thunder over Heat

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Being top 10 on each side of the ball is good too. Here are the teams that can make that claim:
Spurs (6, 3)
Thunder (7, 6)
Clippers (1, 9)
Raptors (10, 10)

The other teams that are close:
Heat (5, 11)
Warriors (12, 4)
Timberwolves (9, 12, not in playoffs)

.

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My guesses:

Pacers over Hawks in 5
Heat over Bobcats in 4
Raptors over Nets in 5
Bulls over Wizards in 7

Pacers over Bulls in 7
Heat over Raptors in 7

Heat over Pacers in 6

Spurs over Mavs in 6
Thunder over Grizzlies in 5
Clippers over Warriors in 7
Blazers over Rockets in 7

Spurs over Blazers in 7
Clippers over Thunder in 7

Clippers over Spurs in 7

Heat over Clippers in 6

Stretch

04-19-2014, 05:44 PM

This time with an appropriate number of exclamation marks.
Predictions

Bulls over Wizards in 5

How dare you.

Latrinsorm

04-20-2014, 11:30 AM

It's not a huge deal that the Pacers lost. If you haven't seen it, the stat is that since the NBA went to a best-of-7 first round (2003) the Pacers are the fourth #1 seed to lose game 1. The others...

2003: 50-32 Pistons lose to the 42-40 Magic by 5, win the series in 7 by 7.3 ppg.
2007: 67-15 Mavs lose to the 42-40 Warriors by 12, lose the series in 6 by 6.7 ppg.
2011: 61-21 Spurs lose to the 46-36 Grizzlies by 3, lose the series in 6 by 3.2 ppg.

3 out of 22 isn't common but it isn't as rare as I would have guessed, and selecting game 1 is kind of arbitrary anyway. The 56-26 Pacers being 18 games ahead of the 38-44 Hawks doesn't stand out in this sample, and neither does losing by 8. If you squint you can see how the Hawks would be a bad match-up for the Pacers...

-strong point guard play
-wings who are productive but secondary scorers, and while Paul George is an excellent on-ball defender he has frequent lapses off-ball.
-two stretch bigs

...but obviously the Pacers should be able to adjust to these: put Paul George on Jeff Teague, feed Hibbert and West in the post, play Copeland instead of Scola and/or Mahinmi. It's pretty straightforward, and I anticipate Vogel deploying these adjustments by game 3 at the latest. Even if the Hawks win both games prior to the adjustments, they won't win a game afterwards so the Pacers still advance.

Latrinsorm

04-22-2014, 04:46 PM

I only watched a little of the Blazers-Rockets game, and obviously LMA's 46-18 and Lillard's 31-9-5 catch the eye, but what stood out to me was an echo of what they did to the Pacers in the only other Blazers game I watched this season: find the weak link on defense and exploit the crap out of it. For the Pacers that's George Hill, for the Rockets it's James Harden, and from the first play they attacked him with Wes Matthews.

Now, Wes didn't score very efficiently or draw a ton of fouls, and the Blazers only won by 2 points in overtime, so they were obviously lucky to win. The point is that Coach Stotts has a smart plan, and more importantly the players and scheme to execute it. There are plenty of teams that will ineptly fumble around going after mismatches on a secondary break or switch, but the Blazers get right down to business and have been doing so all season. Stotts' coaching history is very questionable, but maybe those players just stunk, or maybe his assistants this year are exceptional. Either way, the Blazers have a real advantage over a surprising number of WC teams (Thunder, Rockets, Warriors, Clippers): coaching tactics only go so far, but they still matter.

DoctorUnne

04-22-2014, 07:46 PM

Here are my picks

Heat in 4
Pacers in 6
Nets in 7
Wizards in 6

Nets in 6
Pacers in 4

Pacers in 7

Spurs in 5
Thunder in 7
Rockets in 7
Clippers in 7

Spurs in 5
Clippers in 7

Clippers in 6

Finals - Clippers in 7

Latrinsorm

04-23-2014, 10:37 AM

I would still be worried about the Pacers going forward. (There's never been a doubt they were winning this series.)

1. They trailed at the half.

2. For all the talk about how their defense is back, the Hawks missed a ton of open looks from 3 in the second half. You can't be giving up open 3s to the Heat.

3. The Pacers destroyed the Hawks in terms of getting foul calls. (Does this make the already insufferable Indiana crowd whining all the more ridiculous? Why yes, yes it does.) We would expect a slight edge there from their season performances, but I wouldn't bank on it going forward.

4. The Pacers have been killing it from the 3 point line: 17 of 38 for 44.7%. For all the talk about Atlanta living and dying by the 3, an average Pacers 3P% could easily have them down 2-0 at this point.

5. Vogel needs to be exhorted by the crowd to put in Copeland. If you really want to make a difference, Indiana crowd, start that chant in the first quarter. We're all glad Scola rediscovered his shooting touch, but his range still only goes so far, he can't warp the defense the way a Copeland in the corner does.

6. Paul George woofing at Jeff Teague. Bro, really? Jay-Z doesn't respond to Soulja Boy.

Bottom line, the Pacers are +4.0 after two home games, which with average home court advantage puts them at +0.5 against a 38-44 team.

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With all that said, I expect the Pacers to play better on the road. The Indy crowd would rather boo the refs/opponents than cheer their men, and this has an extremely negative impact on the Pacer tendency to lose their minds on any call against them (e.g. West, Hill, George). Vogel has already switched Paul George onto Jeff Teague full time, no doubt after reading this topic. I don't know why he didn't bother to do this in game 1, but better late than never. This bodes well for his capacity to switch George onto John Wall after they lose game 1 in the next round, should the Wizards pull off the upset. The path to the ECF isn't clear, but it's navigable.

Keller

04-23-2014, 10:46 AM

Latrinsorm

04-23-2014, 03:17 PM

John Wall terrifies me. Much more than DeRozen or anyone on the Raptors for that matter.

As far as teams beyond the Hawks left in the Pacers' path to the banner, the Spurs are the only team I'm more concerned with than the Wizards. Their guard/wing play is going to hurt.Oh, you!

Zach Lowe knows a lot more about basketball than me, and he picked up (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/inflexible-indy-finally-bends-to-beat-atlanta/) on some other little things I missed. The scheme changes are mildly interesting, but everyone fiddles with schemes sooner or later. What's really interesting to me is the Hill-Watson pairing, and in my defense it's easy to miss because Hill is so often invisible on offense and defense. Watson is a good 3 point shooter and competent passer, and as I've said many times before these are areas Indy desperately needs help in. Chris Copeland is a wing player and the Pacer wing depth is a joke, so I always expected Vogel would be forced into that move, but I guess he could go with a two PG look instead...? I don't understand that guy at all. Yes, the Hawks play two small guards at the same time a lot, but they also play Mike Scott as a backup PF. He's a decent player, but he's not some post bruiser that you need Scola's size to defend. Why not Copeland? I just don't get it.

Keller

04-23-2014, 03:48 PM

Latrin, if it makes you feel any better, Copeland is averaging 9 pts a game in my NBA 2k14 season. I'm only a couple of weeks after the all-star break. I am pushing to get him to 10 ppg by the end of the year.

I'm also shamelessly playing Bynum instead of Mahimi.

My starting 5 is: Lance, PG, Turner, West, Hibbert. Off the bench I go Bynum, Scola, Watson, Copeland. George Hill averages 3-4 minutes a game spelling PG. He has demanded a trade.

Latrinsorm

04-23-2014, 03:57 PM

That makes me feel a little better, and the notion that video games have evolved to the point where players demand trades makes me feel even more so.

ESPN is reporting that Vogel is, quote, coaching for his job (http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/10827330/2014-nba-playoffs-frank-vogel-indiana-pacers-coaching-job), end quote. I mean it seems kind of pointless to report that, who doesn't know that Vogel coaches as a job? Did they think he was volunteering?

...I'm being informed that the phrase implies that he'll be fired if the Pacers don't reach expectations, and that sources say expectations are the Finals. Yikes! He's overly conservative so it's reasonable to assume he'll do better with a little panic, but come on, Larry. It's hard to reach the Finals.

Keller

04-23-2014, 05:34 PM

I plan on trading him the minute the season ends.

For the first year, I told myself I would make all personnel moves the real Pacers made. So I couldn't trade Hill immediately.

Latrinsorm

04-23-2014, 05:44 PM

You know who'd be a good fit on Keller's 2015 Pacers? You need a stretch big, preferably one with playmaking abilities. And a secondary defensive captain for when Hibbert sits would be nice too; Mahinmi can play D but he can't lead D. And a little clutch rings winningness in the clutch closer clutchness would be the je ne sais quoi amuse-bouche chéri en toppe (I learned my cooking terms from Little Mermaid and Hannibal).

George Hill and Solomon Jones for LeBron James, and Larry agrees to wear a Lakers jersey for all his national TV shots. You get to sabotage the Heat and indulge yourself by bringing LeBron off the bench. Boom. Vidyagames.

Keller

04-23-2014, 06:03 PM

I'm a big fan of Lebron, and that gets him off of the Heat so [hopefully] he stops flopping.

Latrinsorm

04-23-2014, 07:48 PM

Is there a flop button? R-trigger 2? Or do you just drop the controller while flailing your arms and the Kinect (which is definitely not surveilling you for the NSA, so put that thought right out of your head) does the rest?

Latrinsorm

04-24-2014, 07:09 PM

I couldn't believe McRoberts got away with a common foul last night for this:

http://giant.gfycat.com/LinearSoftAllensbigearedbat.gif

1. Leading with the forearm.
2. Not making a play on the ball (obviously).
3. Making contact above the shoulders.

It looked like a flagrant in real time, it looked like a no-brainer flagrant 2 on replay, and the officials never even looked at it. (What made the situation even more ridiculous is they spent 15 minutes reviewing the clear path foul that made absolutely no difference... committed by Josh McRoberts.) It's been upgraded to a flagrant 2 but inexplicably there's no suspension. If you'll recall, last year Birdman was suspended for game 6 in the ECF after a retroactive flagrant 2 just for pushing Tyler Hansbrough, and Indiana had their only double-digit win of the series.

Superstar treatment? Anyone? Anyone?

.

Anyway, Miami looks the best out of all the teams so far. Their defensive rotations were extremely crisp last night, they're up 2-0 and +15 and would have had two 5+ point wins if the foul was called correctly, Wade isn't playing that well as he ramps up his PT (still only at 34 mp/g), Ray Allen has been horrible. Meanwhile...

-Pacer struggles have been rehashed enough
-Toronto is struggling more than they ought to be with an inferior Brooklyn team
-DC looks second best, very sharp.
-Tony Parker is still a bum.
-OKC is playing Caron Butler 26 minutes a game and giving up a 3/1 ast/tov ratio (to a decent passing team, but still).
-LA is fine, but the game 1 loss gives them another game to put on the odometer.
-I told you guys about Portland! But they're probably not getting friggin' 40-10 games from LMA every night, and if Houston went 15 of 51 (29.4%!!!) instead of 11 of 51 they could easily be up 2-0 instead of down.

Fun list! The only teams since 1986 to have more than one 40 point 10 rebound game in a postseason:

1987 SuperSonics (Dale Ellis, Xavier McDaniel)
1988 Rockets (Hakeem Olajuwon)
1989 Bulls (Michael Jordan)
1990 Knicks (Patrick Ewing)
1993 Suns (Charles Barkley with 3!)
1995 Rockets (Hakeem)
2000 Lakers (Shaquille O'Neal with 5!!!!!)
2001 Lakers (Shaq with 3, Kobe with 2, none in the same game, and Shaq averaged 4 assists in those games to Kobe's 3)
2002 Lakers (Shaq)
2003 Mavericks (Dirk Nowitzki)
2005 Suns (Amar'e Stoudamire)
2009 Cavaliers (LeBron James)
2012 Heat (LeBron 2, Dwyane Wade 1)

Shaq's 00-02 playoffs run just gets more astonishing every time I look at it, not least for the immediate and catastrophic drop-off after 04.

Keller

04-25-2014, 04:23 PM

I am on the "Fire Vogel" train.

They made a brief run when they had Watson, Lance, PG, West, and Scola on the floor. They would have been even better with Watson, Lance, PG, Copeland, and Scola. Hibbert is a pretty soft player overall (physically and emotionally). He's not going to help us this series. He needs to sit. George Hill is not a good basketball player. There are no matchup problems for him - just's just bad.

Can we change thread titles yet?

Latrinsorm

04-26-2014, 07:26 PM

I really can't believe Nenê got a 1 game suspension. He absolutely deserved to be ejected for starting a confrontation and winding up a fist... but Jimmy Butler has been in more danger stepping into the shower. For that act the Wizards lose Nenê for 56 minutes. For McRoberts' irresponsible and dangerous act that actually connected, the Bobcats will lose him for 0 minutes.

Superstar treatment.

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I can't believe how bad the reserve backcourt of Atlanta is, Shelvin Mack and Lou Williams have been just brutal. Or I guess I can believe it, because that's how you end up with 38 wins.

Anyway, I heard Greg Anthony compare this year's Pacers with the 08 Celtics and 12 Heat. The 12 Heat comparison makes no sense at all, because their 7 game series was in the ECF and they were missing Bosh due to injury, while the Pacers are in the first round with everyone healthy. The 08 Celtics seems like a good comparison because they were a #1 seed pushed to 7 games by a #8 seed, but on closer inspection it too is senseless. They won the first two games of the series by 23 and 19 points, and Atlanta won all 3 of their games of the series at home by 9, 5, and 3 points respectively. Through 4 games the Pacers are still negative in cumulative margin (-2) and have a home loss.

Bottom line, today's Pacers win beats all hell out of the alternative, but it doesn't mean they're home free.

Latrinsorm

04-27-2014, 04:13 PM

Reasons I would be worried going forward for Indiana:

1. They're losing on aggregate to an 8 seed after 4 games.

2. We would expect Indy to put up a 97.3 ORtg+ and 92.4 DRtg+ given each team's regular season values, but they are at 96.2 and 96.7.

3. Worse still, their biggest 4 factors outlier is in giving fouls, mostly to Paul Millsap. This is extremely ominous, because Millsap is hurting Indiana in very much the same way LeBron will: too big for their quick guys, too quick for their big guys, 3 point range, draws fouls.

4. Meanwhile, Miami is exceeding their regular season ORtg against a top-5 defense and while Charlotte isn't a good offense they've been even worse than expected.

Miami has flipped the switch on both sides of the ball, Indiana is stuck in neutral.

Latrinsorm

04-29-2014, 04:50 PM

Tough but hilarious night for Indiana.

Paul George gets burgled out of $16,000 worth. That's tough. What's hilarious is that $15,000 of that was his All-Star ring (which seems like it'd be pretty hard to fence) and other sundries including a single $20 bill. Who steals a single $20 bill? That's hilarious.

Pacers lose last night, which is tough. They win every quarter but the 2nd, which they lose 41-19(!!!!!). The NBA's a 2nd quarter league, guys. I was watching the Heat game obviously and seeing the score on the ticker, and the change from the first into the second quarter was bizarre to watch in 5 minute intervals. What's hilarious: Vogel finally tinkers with his lineup, but overcorrects so severely that he probably loses them the game by doing so.

Indiana had 3956 minutes per position during the regular season, due to playing four overtimes on top of 82*48. They assigned these minutes as follows:

C 3693 18.67%
PF 3983 20.14%
SF 4613 23.32%
SG 3864 19.53%
PG 3627 18.34%

So far this series, they had gone with:

C 170 17.69%
PF 209 21.75%
SF 223 23.20%
SG 136 14.15%
PG 223 23.20%
Some down-sizing but still a solid 39% for the bigs, most of the difference is playing CJ Watson instead of Butler/Johnson. Last night, they went with:

C 28 11.67%
PF 48 20.00%
SF 67 27.92%
SG 32 13.33%
PG 65 27.08%
Jeez, Frank!! Settle down! To be fair Hibbert had some foul trouble, but after getting his fourth foul at 8:44 left in the third he stayed on the bench for the rest of the game, so...

Frank was very smart to have a quick leash for Evan Turner (-21 going into last night, worst on the Pacers) to bring in Copeland (+17 on the night and now +9 on the series, which doesn't sound like much but is 3rd best on the Pacers after George +24 and West +19). Better late than never.

It's not at all clear why he would yank the leash on temperamental Roy Hibbert (-16) but not temperamental Lance Stephenson (-12), especially since Hibbert has one year and one player option left under contract while Lance is an unrestricted free agent.

Okay, deep breath. ± has problems, let's do a test case with the Miami series:

LeBron James 57
James Jones 47
Chris Andersen 42
Norris Cole 40
Rashard Lewis 26
Ray Allen 22
Josh McRoberts 16
Chris Bosh 12
Dwyane Wade 12
Mario Chalmers 11
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 11
Bismack Biyombo 7
Kemba Walker 5
D.J. White 2
Jannero Pargo 2
Chris Douglas-Roberts -2
Shane Battier -2
Toney Douglas -2
Luke Ridnour -4
Anthony Tolliver -5
Gary Neal -9
Gerald Henderson -10
Udonis Haslem -16
Cody Zeller -26
Al Jefferson -29

Al Jefferson -29
Anthony Tolliver -5
Bismack Biyombo 7
Chris Andersen 42
Chris Bosh 12
Chris Douglas-Roberts -2
Cody Zeller -26
D.J. White 2
Dwyane Wade 12
Gary Neal -9
Gerald Henderson -10
James Jones 47
Jannero Pargo 2
Josh McRoberts 16
Kemba Walker 5
LeBron James 57
Luke Ridnour -4
Mario Chalmers 11
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 11
Norris Cole 40
Rashard Lewis 26
Ray Allen 22
Shane Battier -2
Toney Douglas -2
Udonis Haslem -16
Nope, the Pacers are just a catastrophe. This brings me to my last thought: there's a definite look of superstardom, even though both look and superstar are useless terms from an empirical standpoint. After 4 games, I don't see it in Kemba. I see it in George, but it reminds me a lot of what I saw in Iguodala, and I feel like George's career is going to have a similar trajectory... underrated, arrival, All Star, overextension, disappointment, and if he's lucky bouncing to a couple other teams where he can just be his role: defensive stopper on the wing, versatile on offense. Not good enough at any one thing to be a legit first option, but good enough at everything to make a crucial impact for a team that already has one. I don't see it ever happening in Indiana, AI went through three point guards and four head coaches without it working in Philly.

...but he is from Palmdale, and I hear the Lakers have cap space coming up pretty soon...

Latrinsorm

04-29-2014, 05:50 PM

I forgot that the whole reason I brought up Kemba was to compare him unfavorably to John Wall (aka Michael Jordan).

-He's got the look.
-Michael won his first playoff series in his fourth year, Wall is up 3-1 in his fourth year
-Wall definitely would have "won" an NCAA title if he stayed at Kentucky for 3 years (that bum LeBron never even made the tournament)
-Winning in the NBA by being good and then lucky in the clutch

It could happen!

Latrinsorm

04-30-2014, 10:31 PM

The Raptors are going to drive me crazy. Up 22 to start the 4th at home, they cough it all up with 3:18 to go, scratch their way back to a 5 point lead with 17 seconds left, then Amir Johnson commits his 6th foul on a made three point shooter for a four point play.

BRO.

But they win anyway because the Nets are just too young a team, they've got to learn how to win.

Latrinsorm

05-04-2014, 12:59 PM

I would be worried about the Pacers if I was their fan.

1. Vogel has finally (FINALLY) gone with Copeland over Turner, and obviously it worked out great. Why is that a cause for worry? Because now he's got no bullets left in the roster gun. If you go down 3-2 to DC or Miami, there's no untapped potential left.

2. Atlanta is really not that good a team. Average in ORtg and DRtg, average 3P%, .500 team. Now, they did exploit a market inefficiency by bombing 3s at an insane .417 rate (regular season .315, 2nd in the league), but still. The Pacers were only +7 over 7 games, and the only close game in the series was a Pacer win. People want to compare this to when the 2008 Celtics were pushed to 7 by the similarly mediocre Hawks, but the Celtics were +84 and two close games went in Atlanta's favor.

3. The Wizards are a pretty good doppelganger for the Hawks:
a. John Wall is faaaaast. Have fun chasing him around all series (again), Paul George.
b. Bradley Beal can shooooot.
c. Trevor Ariza can defend big wings and has 3 point range.
d. Nene doesn't have Millsap's 3 point range, but neither Hibbert nor West can cover him.
e. Gortat and Antic are both tough Eastern Europeans. Much was made of Antic's 3 pointer, but he shot 32.7% in the season and made 3 all series.
f. Like Gortat, Booker can't match Scott's 3 point range, but he's a big tough energy guy who will give Scola nightmares.
g. They even have a painfully washed-up big in Drew Gooden to match Elton Brand.

The last two slots are big upgrades for the Wiz: Andre Miller and Martell Webster are much better suited than Shelvin Mack and Lou Williams. The Hawk offense went in the toilet whenever Teague went to the bench, Miller won't let that happen for DC. Lou was woefully undersized to play 2-guard and compromised spacing with his middling 3 point shot, Martell is much bigger and a much better shooter.

What's really worrying is that against a Hawks defense that was average on the season, the Pacers put up a 104.1 ORtg. "Hey!" you might be shouting, "that matches their season average, what's the problem?" First of all, don't raise your voice at me. Second, the Hawks were without Al Horford, who is a plus defender and therefore skewed the Hawks' average by playing 29 season games. Third, the NBA as a whole has been 1.6 points better on offense (or worse on defense) in the playoffs; if you're treading water, you're falling behind.

4. There's also that team in Miami, which is even better on defense, even more lethal from 3, and required an apparently out-of-body experience from Hibbert to even take to 7 games last year. You needed him to play at least that well and dramatic improvement from someone else to tip the +4.0 ppg Miami advantage. If that all wasn't enough, LeBron has played 157 playoff minutes to Paul George's 284. I don't think mileage is a dramatic factor, but you need every edge you can get.

Kembal

05-04-2014, 01:44 PM

I'm still in mourning over the Rockets' loss on Friday. That one looked like it was going to game 7, and then it was gone, in a flash.

Latrinsorm

05-04-2014, 05:57 PM

I stand by my Toronto pick, although in 5 was probably a little optimistic. 4 close games, close games are 50/50, play that series 10 times I bet the Raptors win 7.

DeMar DeRozan was really bad.
-Missed multiple open cutters on offense in favor of his trademark awkward halfway-effective isolations. No 3 point shot and no instinct for cutting, so he has to play with the ball in his hands, which takes it out of Lowry's hands. Really bad.
-Totally abused by Joe Johnson in the post, though to be fair this has to fall on the coaches too. Johnson is only listed as 1" and 10 pounds bigger, but it's at least 30 pounds and a huge strength advantage. Especially if you're planning on doubling anyway, you have GOT to front the post. That way you have a man on either side, Johnson's got to move and look to find an escape valve. If you rotate a weakside defender and put two in front, he'll just pass right back to the entry passer, swing to the corner (where the defender rotated from), open 3. The Nets ran that play approximately a thousand times. They are who I thought they were, and the Raps let 'em off the hook.
-I can't even imagine how bad the Raptors must have been to watch when he and Gay were on the same team. Probably why they went 6-12.

It's a damn shame that the Memphis and Toronto crowds are out of the playoffs. Both really good, and here's what makes a good crowd:
1. Relax. You can't scream about every call that goes against you.
2. Your team doesn't need you to cheer after they do something (INDIANA), but before. Pick 'em up.
3. When it's all over, give 'em a hand win or lose.
Great job Toronto, your team has a great outlook going forward.

Latrinsorm

05-04-2014, 06:29 PM

Last thought: Brooklyn is up 8 with 4:11 left and Deron Williams shooting a free throws. Brooklyn closes:
-Deron Williams 1 for 2 from the line
-offensive rebound, Joe Johnson missed jumper
-Joe Johnson missed technical free throw (DeMar DeRozan, hey!)
-offensive rebound, Deron Williams turnover
-Joe Johnson missed 3
-Joe Johnson made 2
-Deron Williams 1 for 2 from the line
-Paul Pierce missed jumper
-Paul Pierce missed 3
-Deron Williams 1 for 2 from the line (intentional)
-Shaun Livingston 2 for 2 from the line (intentional)
-Shaun Livingston turnover

All told: 1 for 5 FG, 0 for 2 3P, 5 for 9 FT, 2 turnovers: 7 points on 11 turnovers, 63.6 ORtg to Toronto's 140.0. People are going to talk about clutch closing veteran play, but the Nets barely barely held on to the lead they ran out to.

I also wanted to mention Kevin Garnett. I'm sad for Udonis Haslem's present state, I'm really sad for KG's being lauded for a 12/11 game, but he must be thanking his lucky stars the NBA has gone so small. For 3 years now he's just been stumbling to the rim with his hands up, and if you're the biggest guy on the court you can get away with that forever. He's only listed at 220 and probably isn't any more than 230, Charles Oakley could literally have come off the bench today and broken him in half. The Big Ticket probably isn't worth $12m a year anymore, but he's still contributing.

Latrinsorm

05-04-2014, 10:38 PM

Out of 3 people who made picks we're down to 0 who picked the first round correctly.

Kelly and I picked the Bulls.
I picked the Raptors.
Kelly and Doc picked the Rockets.

We all have Spurs, Clips, and Pacers reaching the Conference Finals (and I assume none of us feel too good about the Spurs or Pacers). We also all have the Clippers reaching the Finals, so they're probably guaranteed to lose. Westbrook has to start making better decisions sooner or later, right? Right? ...right?

Atlanteax

05-05-2014, 10:57 AM

I was rooting for Memphis and Houston

Keller

05-05-2014, 11:12 AM

AnticorRifling

05-05-2014, 11:24 AM

I got to watch the entire Clippers v Warriors game and I think that's the first full game of pro basketball I've watched on TV in years. It was a good game.

SHAFT

05-05-2014, 11:51 AM

I got to watch the entire Clippers v Warriors game and I think that's the first full game of pro basketball I've watched on TV in years. It was a good game.

Yes it was. Game 7 for Portland and Houston was unreal too. Heck of a first round for the nba.

Latrinsorm

05-05-2014, 04:06 PM

The crucial difference between Atlanta and Washington is that Washington's bigs, especially Gortat, cannot shoot the 3. Hibbert will be closer to the rim, which will negate Wall's ability to drive.

Teague had an open lane all series because of Atlanta's spacing. That won't happen with Washington.

Pacers in 5.Gortat can't shoot 3s, but he's got range out to 16 feet.
Nene and Gooden (yep! still alive!) have range to (but not past) the 3 point line.
Harrington will drain 3s all night.

With all that said, I do expect DC starters to do worse than Atlanta's on offense. Where they will win the series is with the bench and on defense.

Latrinsorm

05-05-2014, 11:52 PM

Yep! Gooden's still alive! Not sure about Hibbert...

1:24 left, down 10, Indiana crowd heading for the exits. I'm sure every talking head will crucify them for doing so, given that it's a much smaller point/time ratio than when Miami fans walked out down 5 with 30 seconds left. Yep, that'll happen any second now. Any... second... now.

I'm also sure the crowd will get criticized for referee abuse. 2:30 left in the 1st quarter, Indy is in the bonus and DC is not. A minute later Mahinmi commits a loose ball foul (STILL not putting DC in the bonus) and the crowd pulls the "AHHHHHHHHHH!!!" routine and derisively cheer a call that goes their way... but the majority of calls were already going their way this makes me so mad. Take away the eight FTAs intentionally given to the Wizards (including Wall's first of the game and a call PG complained about) and the Pacers are 27-22 FTA and 22-23 PF on the game. More than once I wrote "SHUT UP" and underlined it many times for the Indy crowd, but the proper command is probably "GROW UP".

I've been mostly kidding about Wall Jordan, but that first quarter... whoa! He had more highlight plays in 8 minutes than the entire Pacer team all game: a nice chasedown block of Stephenson, an unbelievable chasedown block of PG, a gorgeous reaching layup past/around Stephenson, and getting by Hibbert then wrapping a pass around his (Hibbert's!) back to giftwrap a dunk for Nene. Really incredible stretch...

...and it's all thanks to Frank! I joked that he would wait to switch Paul George onto Wall until after they lost the first game, then he went ahead and did it! Frank! Buddy! Come on! Hill cannot stay in front of quick guards, George is very prone to off-ball lapses. Case in point: Trevor Ariza going for 4000 points with literally 100% of his made field goals coming on an assist. The most brutal example came in the 3rd:

Ariza is standing on the left wing.
Wall picks up his dribble on the right wing.
PG starts cheating over and has one foot in the circle.
WHY??? Are you going to fly over and contest a stand-still John Wall jumper?

Bradley Beal cuts from the basket straight to the top of the key.
PG leaps towards Wall to gamble for a steal.
WHY??? Are you worried that Bradley Beal with a full head of steam away from the basket is going to turn and fire? You know who you should be worried about? Ariza being wide open for a spot-up 3. Gortat had moseyed over to set a back screen anyway, but it was completely superfluous due to George's brutal decision making.

Look. Put Paul George in front of a perimeter guy with the ball, he's elite. Have him try to make even basic help decisions, he's average at best. George Hill is a train wreck on the ball. I don't know if he's better off the ball, but he really can't be worse. Put George on Wall, put Hill on Ariza. Yes you risk the Ariza post-up, but that's a hell of a lot less effective than the Ariza wide open 3, especially since Hill has very good length.

.

Evan Turner should not play another NBA minute in these playoffs. It's a joke that you're playing him over Copeland when you're willing to experiment with Scola-West and Mahinmi-Hibbert(!!!) lineups. I didn't take the "Fire Vogel" stuff seriously, but his roster and tactical decisions cost them the game tonight.

Latrinsorm

05-06-2014, 04:25 PM

Congrats to Durant on the MVP.

-It's interesting that there were 125 voters after staying at 121 the past three years. It's unbelievable to me how these things aren't a matter of public record in today's day and age. Thanks a lot, Obama.
-It's also interesting how distant a fifth Harden was with .068 share, the lowest since Dwight's .048 in 2008.

But mostly it's interesting to see who Durant and LeBron just passed in all-time MVP award shares.

1. LeBron goes from 5.387 to 6.099 or 6.100, either way he passes Larry Bird and moves into 3rd. He's .10ish behind Kareem, even a fifth-place finish next year should put him into second. He remains more than 2 behind Jordan, and it'll be fascinating to see how that race plays out. I've said before that I would be surprised to see LeBron win another MVP, but obviously if he keeps cranking out .700 share 2nd places he'll have no trouble catching Jordan.

2. Durant goes from 2.019 to 3.004 or 3.005, either way he goes from 21st to 13th, passing in order...
Jerry West
Steve Nash
Charles Barkley
Oscar Robertson
Hakeem Olajuwon
Bob Pettit
Kevin Garnett
Moses Malone

That's a hell of a list to be above by any composite metric. He's now .12ish behind David Robinson and so should catch him promptly. Up next: Kobe Bryant at 4.206 and Duncan at 4.277 or 4.278, and that brings me to my next point.

I've whined before about how the era between Jordan and LeBron should be considered the Duncan rather than Kobe era. Kobe came in the league in 1997, Duncan 1998, and MVP voting paints a fascinating picture of the two careers:
1997 tie (neither player received votes)
1998-2005 Duncan (Kobe first received votes in 2000, and received none in 2005)
2006-2013 Kobe (2007 is an especially amusing result)
2014 Duncan

We praise Kobe (justifiably) for his incredible longevity, but Duncan is no slouch in that department. 43,000 minutes in and he's still the best player on a #1 seed, just amazing.

Latrinsorm

05-07-2014, 02:17 PM

The Heat, man. If you can't enjoy their offense you just don't like basketball. The Nets had more 3s with a better % and more FTAs than the Heat last night and got absolutely crushed. Why?

-Luck. If LeBron and Wade are going to drain 20 footers all night, you're dead anyway.
-Execution. It seemed like the Heat got a layup or 3 on every possession, with brilliant passing and cutting.
-Brooklyn. The pass goes faster than the man, but your perimeter guys getting blown by every play doesn't help. The Williams-Thornton backcourt in particular was brutal.

I'm pretty sure Jason Kidd is a good coach. This roster could very easily have imploded, but everyone seems to be playing hard. The problem is the roster, and it was never in starker contrast than last night with the Heat's. Everybody on the Heat can play off the ball:

-LeBron, Chalmers, Battier, Allen, and Lewis can spot up out to 3 at an elite level. (Allen can also come off screens.)
-Cole and Bosh can spot up out to 3 at a competent enough level.
-Andersen and Wade are brutally effective cutters.
-LeBron, Bosh, and Andersen are annihilators when they roll after setting a screen. Andersen's the only one who does it with any regularity, but we saw rolling Bosh last night and Brooklyn had no answer.

Obviously the team is best when LeBron has the ball in his hands, and it's easier to be the best when you have the best player on the planet. It's still a masterful job of roster construction. Wade is the biggest ball-stopper on the team and he only averaged 3 FGAs to the AST. (Compare to DeRozan's 4.5 this year, Kobe's career 4.1, Carmelo's career 6.4.) There are times when the Heat don't move the ball and win with talent anyway, but when they combine that talent with moving the ball it's poetry. I have no idea how long they can keep it up, hopefully forever.

Latrinsorm

05-08-2014, 11:13 PM

Considerably uglier game for the Heat but still a comfortable win in the end. I noticed that LeBron played 39 minutes, and went to work: how often has LeBron played 40 minute games over the years?

2003-04 39
2004-05 65
2005-06 63
2006-07 56
2007-08 47
2008-09 32
2009-10 33
2010-11 39
2011-12 20
2012-13 32
2013-14 24

That's regular season. (2012 prorates to 24 games.) Here's playoffs:

2005-06 12
2006-07 18
2007-08 10
2008-09 11
2009-10 9
2010-11 20
2011-12 20
2012-13 18
2013-14 2
And here's playoffs as a percentage of playoff games played:

2005-06 92.31%
2006-07 90.00%
2007-08 76.92%
2008-09 78.57%
2009-10 81.82%
2010-11 95.24%
2011-12 86.96%
2012-13 78.26%
2013-14 33.33%
Pretty exciting, especially when Vogel had the brilliant idea to have Paul George chase Bradley Beal around screens for 42 minutes a night. Spo will never get enough credit, but his management of the roster has been indispensable.

Latrinsorm

05-10-2014, 03:30 PM

Indy dominated last night, and that goes a long way in winning a series, but... come on, Miami is going to annihilate either one of these teams. The Pacers put up a 97.6 ORtg last night. 97.6! And DC gave up halfway through the fourth quarter! Their offense is just broken, Miami is going to eat them alive.

I don't understand why DC insists on running pick and rolls. John Wall is one of the very few players who can actually blow by his defender whenever he wants. Hill has no chance, Lance has negative chance, bringing a big over just mucks it up. Wall is even more rare in that he can finish past (not over or through) the weakside help with his extraordinary length or find his open teammates with his extraordinary court vision.

I expect DC to bounce back in a big way, and Paul George to continue spending 42 minutes a game bouncing off 5 screens per play trailing Beal or getting the business from Wall. Thanks, Frank! <3

Keller

05-11-2014, 06:17 PM

The bright side of having Frank Vogel as your coach is that you don't have Scott Brooks as your coach. Ouch.

Keller

05-11-2014, 06:19 PM

I'm really interested to see how Indiana and Brooklyn match up in the ECFs.

Drew

05-11-2014, 06:20 PM

I'm really interested to see how Indiana and Brooklyn match up in the ECFs.

1/10

Latrinsorm

05-11-2014, 06:58 PM

I didn't watch the game. A closing lineup of Jackson-Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka is pretty incredible (55 regular season minutes), but against a Collison-Paul-Crawford(!)-Granger(!!)-Griffin(!!!) lineup (2!!!!! regular season minutes), what else are you supposed to do? Even more incredible is that Griffin played 8 minutes, Paul played 11 minutes, and the rest of the lineup played all 12 of the 4th quarter with no apparent fatigue effects. Remember when Andre Miller was so gassed he was beyond the slash? Apparently the Clips keep in better shape.

I have my criticisms of Granger, but he's a great guy to bring in off the bench and space the floor. It's a shame Indiana couldn't pick up a player like him this season.

Latrinsorm

05-11-2014, 10:52 PM

94-91 Indy, 45 seconds left with the ball. Game over?
-turnover
-turnover
-1 of 2 from the free throw line
They get out with the win anyway because DC plays just as poorly, but man... Miami is going to annihilate either one of these teams.

The Pacers had the worst ORtg of any team still alive going into this game (102.1), and by my calculations they're putting up an even worse 100.7 tonight. The next worst offense is Brooklyn's at 109.6. It's comical how bad they are at offense, especially in a postseason where the average offense is 2 points better than the regular season.

Keller

05-12-2014, 08:19 AM

The sleeping giant, the unquestioned best team in the East, has woken from a two month slumber.

The Lebron James Fan App reports that the King wet the bed last night out of fear.

Latrinsorm

05-12-2014, 04:37 PM

Two???

Keller

05-12-2014, 05:17 PM

Give or take a month.

cwolff

05-12-2014, 11:21 PM

The sleeping giant, the unquestioned best team in the East, has woken from a two month slumber.

The Lebron James Fan App reports that the King wet the bed last night out of fear.

Your sleeping Giant just woke Godzilla.

Latrinsorm

05-12-2014, 11:24 PM

LeBron with 49 points, 16 of 24 from the field (67%), 14 of 19 from the line (74%), 1 turnover.

That's why they brought him there.

Keller

05-13-2014, 08:15 AM

Your sleeping Giant just woke Godzilla.

Pissing the bed will wake anyone up - but I take your point. Hopefully this ends the King's incontinence issues.

Keller

05-13-2014, 08:26 AM

https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTfwr-nU_lAQJSZGY2ltZ6MbLGlKsx_Wb20PomV3oUodrppVmDThQ

"YOU JUST ASKED ME IF I PISSED THE BED? ARE YOU SERIOUS?" ---- KING JAMES DEFLECTS, REFUSING THE DIRECT QUESTION WHETHER THE PACERS DEFENSE CAUSED HIM TO PISS ALL OVER HIMSELF.

http://www.trendingplayers.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/lebron-james-angry.jpg

"TO MY KNOWLEDGE I HAVE NOT PISSED THE BED, I NEVER WROTE ANYTHING IN MY APP ABOUT ME PISSING THE BED, AND I'LL BE SURE TO FIRE WHOMEVER IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WRITING THAT I DID." --- LEBRON JAMES ADOPTS THE CHRIS CHRISTIE APPROACH TO ANSWERING DIRECT QUESTIONS.

http://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/980w/public/2014/04/18/pacers_magic_basketball_doa111.jpg?itok=Tx659n72

LANCE STEPHENSON AND PAUL GEORGE SHARE A LAUGH AS ROY HIBBERT [NOT PICTURED] GIVES LEBRON JAMES A XL PACKAGE OF DEPENDS(TM).

Keller

05-13-2014, 08:27 AM

http://i366.photobucket.com/albums/oo101/YODARAM/lebron-james-upset-cleveland-cavaliers.jpg

Latrinsorm

05-13-2014, 01:31 PM

Two incredible LeBron stats:

Last night gave him 7 playoff games with 45+ points, breaking a tie with Jerry West and tying him with Allen Iverson for third most all time. Second is Wilt (8), third is Jordan (23!!!!!). Kobe has 5, none since 2008.

In the regular season, of players with 40+ G and 1+ att/g, LeBron had the second best spot-up 3P% in the entire NBA. His 48.8% (http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingCatchShoot.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&sortField=FG3_PCT&sortOrder=DES&filters=FG3A*GE*1**GP*GE*40) trailed only Kyle Korver's 49.9%. (10th on the list? Chris Copeland. FRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANK!!!)

DoctorUnne

05-13-2014, 07:48 PM

Keller

05-14-2014, 10:14 AM

The Pacers' defensive effort last makes Lebron's bed-wetting even more embarrassing for him. Not only did he piss himself, but he did it for no good reason.

Latrinsorm

05-14-2014, 05:14 PM

I'm impressed Brooklyn is making this a series without Lopez, who would be pretty helpful right now given how limited KG is. 2-1 Miami with a coin flip that made it 3-1.

Also it's been a while, but how clutch was Pierce's block at the end of game 7?It was very nice, and I'm sure if you asked him he'd say he should get that call way more often than he does. He's always outside the circle with his arms up, it makes me wonder whether the Battier-type charge-taking posture (hands folded at the waist) is superior in swaying the referees' perception. Or maybe they just don't appreciate the Truth.
The Pacers' defensive effort last makes Lebron's bed-wetting even more embarrassing for him. Not only did he piss himself, but he did it for no good reason.Here's the thing, though. Their defense has been great all playoffs. Giving up a 113.4 ORtg isn't good, but it's only 5 points above the 108.4 average in the playoffs. For one game, that's not a big deal. The problem with Indiana is that their offense is just broken. They are now sporting the worst ORtg of all 16 playoff teams at 100.9. The Wizards are a decent defensive team, but even Chicago managed a 103.0 against them. Indy's probably still going to win this series, but there's no way they can beat Miami like this.

The Pacers with Copeland and a bunch of stiffs scored 22 points on 18 possessions, 122.2. They gave up almost as many points on defense, but the point is that you can put Copeland out with 4 good to great defenders and not compromise the defense, and the spacing/shooting/passing will unlock the catastrophic offense. 7.5 points below average is the worst for a team that played at least two rounds since the 2005 Pacers put up an incredible -10.1.

And I guess some stuff happened in the Western Conference? Eh.

Keller

05-14-2014, 05:33 PM

You're lucky I'm letting you discuss the Eastern Conference in the MLB thread, Latrin. Don't push it.

Latrinsorm

05-14-2014, 06:02 PM

Baseball and Ballantine!

Latrinsorm

05-14-2014, 11:24 PM

Great series from the Nets. I see a bright future for this group of young kids now that they've learned how to win. There's just no substitute for playoff experience, next year they won't choke down the stretch.

Due to a TiVo error I only started watching midway through the 3rd, when LeBron had 9 points and negative 3 assists or something. He finished with 29, 7, and 5. Yawn. Ties him for the most such games this postseason. Snooze. Extends his lead over Jordan for the most such playoff games since 1985: he now has 45, Jordan has 42, third place is Bird and Kobe with 24. Boooooring. The 5 turnovers and 44 minutes are a big concern, but hopefully DC can push the series to 7 with Indy. We've got a day in hand either way.

I would say Ray Allen half fouled Johnson twice on the last play, and 1/2 * 2 = 1 where I come from... but Plumlee got away with one in the regular season against the Heat, so I guess it's only fitting that the scales balance out in the end.

The Nets reminded us how you have to beat the Heat: shooting, shooting, shooting. They played a lineup with Kirilenko at center, for God's sake, and played Miami to a draw over 8 minutes. With that in mind it was really interesting to me how little Thornton played: 6 tonight, 0 game 4, 6 game 3.

Keller

05-15-2014, 08:11 AM

Hopefully a few extra days will help Lebron get over his fear of Hibbert and the Pacers defense. I just hope he doesn't watch game 6 and realize he's irrationally scared.

Drew

05-15-2014, 09:49 AM

Hopefully a few extra days will help Lebron get over his fear of Hibbert and the Pacers defense. I just hope he doesn't watch game 6 and realize he's irrationally scared.

Quoting for the definitive example of irrational confidence.

DoctorUnne

05-15-2014, 07:54 PM

Now that Brooklyn's done I can root for my boy Kawhi. Did you see that steal and coast to coast run where he split two defenders and flat out outran them even though he started two strides behind both? That was Lebron-esque

Drew

05-16-2014, 01:51 AM

ESPN had an interesting poll today, I love these public polls because they show how wildly opinions oscillate. A month ago everyone was down on the Heat.

http://i.imgur.com/RLgwMgC.png

Latrinsorm

05-16-2014, 01:37 PM

The Clippers are now 44 years old and have never reached the Conference Finals. The other 3 teams that haven't: Pelicans (26), Raptors (19), Bobcats (10).

Every team still alive has reached the Finals at least once in franchise history, and all but the Pacers have at least one NBA championship. If they do win, the Pacers would pass the Trail Blazers (44) as the 4th youngest franchise with a title. (Heat 26, Mavericks 34, would tie Spurs at 38.)

Latrinsorm

05-16-2014, 04:17 PM

My lasting memories of the Wiz-Pacers series are gonna be...
1. Ted Leonsis literally pounding the floor in anger over a call (which was actually one of the few right ones), then screaming an expletive on national TV.
2. The Pacers all up and celebrating except for Paul George, sitting on the bench, absolutely exhausted.

Latrinsorm

05-16-2014, 07:12 PM

Ibaka likely out (http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/10943844/serge-ibaka-oklahoma-city-thunder-expected-miss-rest-postseason-calf-injury) for the year.

Just gonna say real quick, the Heat lost Bosh for 5 of 6 games against the Pacers and 4 of 7 against the proud former champion Celtics before they successfully won the title. You never know.

Latrinsorm

05-18-2014, 10:23 PM

This might sound homery, but I've still got the Heat in 5. Everything that could possibly break the Pacers' way did:

-No Evan Turner.
-Over twice as many FTAs.
-Hot from 3.
-Miami cold from 3.
-Super efficient game from Lance.
-That crazy 4 to make 3 call. Probably the right call, but I still can't remember ever seeing it given.

And they only won by 11 points! Recall that the 2011 Bulls beat Miami in game 1 at home by 21 points with similarly unsustainable splits before Miami won in 5, or that these Pacers righted the ship with a 16 point drubbing of Atlanta in game 2 before losing the rest of the series on aggregate. Miami was getting layups and open 3s, their offense will eventually regress to the mean. Miami's got adjustments to make, and the coach and personnel to make them. The only adjustment Indy will make is putting Evan Turner back out there, good luck with that.

Keller

05-19-2014, 08:27 AM

Quoting for the definitive example of irrational confidence.

I think you should probably re-read what I wrote and maybe edit your post to something like, "irrational swings in temperament" or something more fitting to what I wrote.

Keller

05-19-2014, 08:29 AM

Atlanteax

05-19-2014, 09:55 AM

Indy-Miami is going at least 6 games.

Atlanteax

05-19-2014, 10:58 AM

Pretty scathing article of the Miami Heat on 538

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-miami-heat-couldnt-defend-the-most-basic-play-in-basketball/

Latrinsorm

05-19-2014, 03:01 PM

Pretty scathing article of the Miami Heat on 538

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-miami-heat-couldnt-defend-the-most-basic-play-in-basketball/This is another version of what I was saying, though. The Heat probably didn't forget how to defend the pick and roll, the Pacers probably didn't sell Andrew Bynum's soul to give George Hill PnR skills (because Bynum's got no heart and therefore no soul). It's probably just a statistical outlier. I have estimated in the past that 100 possessions gives a ± of about 12 points, and there were about 89 possessions last night so 28% of that gives 25 possessions. I'd estimate the ± for that would be 24 points (quarter sample twice uncertainty), which rather neatly explains the entire gap between last night and the Pacers' regular season.

The game counts in the standings (which necessarily has a predictive effect going forward), but I wouldn't look at a set of 25 possessions and conclude that the Pacers have found some chink in Miami's armor.

Latrinsorm

05-19-2014, 03:13 PM

So Lebron had a sub-average day offensively and an absolutely horrible day defensively. With the exception of a few nice steals leading to fast breaks, he got embarrassed by David West, et al. He's going to have to improve dramatically. And that's what scares me as a Pacers fan. I know he will and I think Latrin's "heat in 5" statement is probably right if Lebron finds some pride and plays the way he can.It was pretty shocking to see the Heat line up with LeBron on West and Battier on George. It's probably the better match-up with LeBron being pretty much West's size (both listed at 240, both probably 260+), and it'll be interesting to see if they keep that match-up (which requires going back to Battier starting after starting Haslem for the second half).

Your comment reminded me of Van Gundy's that PG/Lance had clearly outplayed LeBron/Wade, and I'm not sure that's accurate. Miami's duo combined for 52 points on 45 touches (1.156), Indy's went for 41 on 34 (1.206). They were more efficient (which is a huge upset) but on a night when Bosh was struggling I think the increased production is relevant.

Bottom line, when the shooting regresses to the mean Miami wins. They were +4.3 this year, Indy was only +3.0, therefore Miami in the long term between the two will be +1.3 (if not higher, as Wade has better eFG% than Toney Douglas et al). Last night Miami was -2.3. It won't last. It might only regress halfway, as it did last year, or it might regress all the way into the red for Indy, as it did in 2012... but it's going to regress.

Drew

05-20-2014, 11:13 PM

Keller

05-21-2014, 09:42 AM

I might have. I don't remember.

David West being in foul trouble was the difference last night. He stays on the floor and Indy wins by double digits.

Indy in 5, unless the Heat figure out how to deal with Hibbert.

Latrinsorm

05-21-2014, 11:18 AM

It was pretty fun to see when the Pacers briefly had a breath of hope with 8 seconds left, the stadium was mostly empty. I was thinking "If the Pacers win this one everyone of these Pacers fans will be lying saying they didn't leave and still killing the Heat fans who left their arena last year."

Didn't you kill the Heat fans for that last year Keller? I'm pretty sure you did.I went back and looked it up when the Indy fans abandoned the Pacers in an earlier series, and I couldn't find any comments in the NBA threads. It was mostly a talking head thing, I think.
I might have. I don't remember.

David West being in foul trouble was the difference last night. He stays on the floor and Indy wins by double digits.

Indy in 5, unless the Heat figure out how to deal with Hibbert.The Heat know the #1 way to stop Hibbert: Lance Stephenson. There was an unbelievable sequence in the first quarter where Hibbert got 2 or 3 offensive rebounds on the same possession, then naturally posted up to be rewarded for his hard work. George Hill stared at him, then passed to Lance, who took a horrendous isolation 22 footer. It went in, as did a lot of bad Lance shots last night, but in the long run they won't and he'll kill Hibbert's enthusiasm.

It's been really amazing to watch the Heat's defensive match-ups. Game 1 saw James on West, Game 2 they put him on Watson/Hill, Allen on George, Cole on Lance, just cross matches everywhere. James has always been a great match-up against opposing PGs (ask Tony Parker), I've mentioned before how Allen's reduced foot speed makes him better suited to guarding SFs instead of SGs, and Lance isn't a post-up threat so the quicker Cole is a good match there... it all makes sense on paper, but it was surprising how well it worked in practice. No miscommunications, no errors tracking back on the other end (though Indy's lack of transition game helps there), it was all very impressive.

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Indy's starters were hugely productive, their bench let them down. A combined 9 points on 3 of 13 shooting, and that's with Rasual Butler knocking down 2 threes. The long layoff until game 3 figures to help the Pacers more because they need rest after the grueling first two rounds, but if it means Evan Turner recuperates and gets back in the lineup they're really screwed.

Indy has played extraordinarily well in the first two games, and they're 1-1. We'll see whether their sudden return to form is because they match-up/toughness/clutch so well against Miami or just a fluke.

Latrinsorm

05-21-2014, 04:30 PM

Paul George concussed (http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/10964763/2014-nba-playoffs-paul-george-indiana-pacers-diagnosed-concussion). It looks like a freak accident... but so did Wade crippling Rondo. Twice is pretty suspicious, even if Wade would never in a million years risk his knee on such an attack.

DoctorUnne

05-21-2014, 07:24 PM

It says something that George is guarding LeBron but LeBron isn't guarding George. If I was George I would be talking all kinds of trash about that. Maybe the matchups work better for Miami otherwise, but I would argue the Heat are just trying to have LeBron expend less energy on defense. George is obviously the Pacers' most dangerous offensive player. It's not Hibbert when he only catches the ball cleanly 50% of the time.

Latrinsorm

05-21-2014, 08:11 PM

I would be careful talking trash after shooting 4 of 16 against mainly Ray Allen, who is very nearly old enough to be Paul George's father. Also, remember that Michael manfully insisted on guarding Magic Johnson until Phil told him to STFU and let Pippen do it, and then they won 4 straight Finals games. The expression "more guts than brains" is not a compliment.

Atlanteax

05-22-2014, 08:48 AM

Latrinsorm

05-25-2014, 01:41 PM

Weird game last night. The performance of both teams in the first 8 minutes suggested they had had 3 months off rather than days, unforced errors all over the place. Rather than (justifiably) booing their team's putrid play, the Miami crowd started a Let's Go Heat! chant unprompted. That's what being a good crowd is all about, and that's why if the situation was reversed there is a 100% chance the Indy crowd would tear apart what little confidence the Pacers had left.

Obviously Miami was going to score more than 4 points per 9 minutes through the rest of the contest, and it was no surprise that they made the game close by half and through the third quarter. What was a surprise was how abruptly the Heat turned it into an easy victory. It was 76-74 Miami with 8:30 to play and LeBron coming into the game. In the next 7 minutes, the Heat went on a 23-8 run, and it wasn't even against Indy's continually awful bench! The entire starting Pacer unit was on the floor except for Hill (replaced by Watson), it was the Heat unit that adjusted: Cole, Wade, Allen, LeBron, Bosh. This lineup demonstrates how catastrophically wrong people are about the Heat depth, not to mention the sudden resurrection of Rashard Lewis following the similarly sudden resurrection of James Jones in round 1.

LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and Chalmers will always start. (Even though Chalmers was catastrophically bad last night for no apparent reason.)
Allen, Cole, and Andersen will always come off the bench.
Lewis, Jones, and Battier are always ready to come in and drain 3s.
Haslem is always ready to come in and D up.
Beasley and Douglas are always ready to come in and do their jobs (shoot and not shoot respectively).
Oden... who knows.

But that's still 13 deep! And not only is it 13 deep, it's 13 that Spo is perfectly happy to mix and match with no regard for positional sanctity. Take the lineup above with just Wade/Allen/James/Bosh. 70% of the time in the regular season that's a small lineup by adding a PG (Chalmers or Cole), but Spo was happy to try the other 30% with bigs (Andersen, Beasley, Haslem). Meanwhile Vogel is hell bent on sticking to his designation of Copeland as a big. Even when fate gives him a miracle and bumps Turner from the lineup long enough to make it absolutely incontrovertible that a 3-point shooter like Butler is the better option, we saw last night that he went right back to Turner (who got TOOOOORCHED) when he needed another wing.

You have to adjust, and you can't pull the routine you did in Atlanta where you wait until you are on the brink of elimination to pull the trigger.

Latrinsorm

05-25-2014, 08:31 PM

Lance has probably been the best Pacer on the court so far this series. 17 points (2nd), 7 boards (2nd), 7 assists (1st), 55% fg (1st), only 8 turnovers. Hasn't done much on defense but hasn't done much wrong either, and George has been so bad on offense it's no real competition.

Off the court, he ran his mouth about Wade who has proceeded to shoot 62% from the dang field, put up 24 a game, and unleash some vintage Wade athleticism on defense. Scola still has no idea where he came from, let alone how anyone could block his shot all the way to half court.

Now he has apparently decided to double down (http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/10983690/2014-nba-playoffs-lance-stephenson-indiana-pacers-says-lebron-james-trash-talk-signals-weakness) on tugging Superman's cape, saying that he's gotten under LeBron's skin, LeBron's showing weakness, blah blah blah. LeBron's stats are already incredible (of course), and the Heat are up 2-1 with even homecourt to go. What is Lance thinking?

SHAFT

05-27-2014, 01:03 AM

Forgive me for taking a bit too much pleasure in Keller thinking the heat would do anything but win the eastern conference finals. Le spurs v heat one more time it seems.

Keller

05-27-2014, 10:34 AM

Lakers fans deserve pleasure, too.

Latrinsorm

05-27-2014, 11:31 AM

Paul George blames the refs (http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/10988601/2014-nba-playoffs-indiana-pacers-paul-george-says-referees-played-part-loss) for the loss, pointing out that Miami had a 37-15 FTA advantage.

Sorry, scratch that, that was the free throw advantage Indiana had in game 1, which drew no comment whatsoever from the Heat or criticism from Paul George. The Heat had a more modest 34-17 advantage for game 4.

Using regular season numbers the Pacers should be 3.6% above average and the Heat should be 2.8% below. So far this series the Pacers are in fact 3.4% above average and the Heat are 0.4% below. Do with that information what you will.

Latrinsorm

05-27-2014, 11:48 AM

I really can't say it enough, when Miami is running their offense right they are beautifully unstoppable.

We've all seen the LeBron dunk past Hill and Mahinmi, and it's easy to just dismiss that as LeBron being physically unfair, which is part of it. But what made that play happen is smart play by LeBron and Bosh. "What the heck could Bosh do on a LeBron isolation?" you might be wondering. Watch the play again: LeBron is squared off with Hill at the top of the arc. Hill's dead already, obviously, but any legit NBA defense is built on team defense, and that's where Bosh comes in. He cuts through the paint from strong side to weak side, doesn't stop at the post insisting on a touch, doesn't linger under the basket, but moves all the way out of the paint. Mahinmi knows Hill is dead, so he lingers in the paint for 1... 2... thr- okay gotta get out of the paint, and in that instant of moving the wrong direction LeBron attacks, which means Mahinmi has to lunge back across the lane to help - no chance to draw a charge, no chance to go vertical, no chance to even offer a meaningful contest. The bucket and the foul. There's no one else to help because Lewis and Chalmers are spacing the floor.

LeBron would be huge and fast on any team, but the play only works with intelligent lineup construction and off-ball movement. Off-ball movement just sucks to do, it's a lot of energy to expend with no tangible reward and often goes ignored even by teammates. But if you don't do it then you've got the LeBron Cavs, and you can't win that way.

Another beautiful example was the Wade to Bosh to LeBron layup that came immediately before. Wade has it at the top of the arc, LeBron comes to set a pick and slips the screen. Indiana is a great defense, so they have their hands up to deny the passing lane... but more accurately they're denying a passing lane, because Wade makes an easy pass to Bosh on the wing. Now it's a 2 on 1 game because (again) the floor is spaced by Chalmers and Lewis, so Bosh can make an incredibly easy pass to give LeBron an incredibly easy lay-in. It's really obvious in retrospect, but it only works with team play. Lewis and Chalmers have to stay spotted up rather than mucking up the lanes, LeBron has to trust that the ball will get to him on the roll and keep running to the hoop, Wade has to not force the tough pass and trust that Bosh will make the easy pass rather than looking to add to his then-17 points. The Miami offense is a thing of beauty when they run it.

And one last point about spacing: Chris Copeland 3 minutes 0 points +11. Luis Scola 14 minutes 12 points -10. If Vogel is going to go super small with PG PG SG SF PF anyway, why not do a PG SG SF Copeland PF lineup? What's so hard about this?

Keller

05-27-2014, 01:07 PM

I am not a fan of publicly complaining about the referees. Any NBA fan, with the exception of Heat fans, recognize the impartiality. And, if we're using our brains, it makes sense. With Miami being the NBA's only hope at ratings for the finals, and the Pacers thoroughly out-classing the Heat with the exception of Lebron James, it is not surprising that the referees are deciding these games. I just wish the Pacers wouldn't have complained about it publicly. They are sending a tape of blown calls to the NBA, which is probably what they should have done to begin with.

Now that there is public scrutiny - the NBA needs to decide whether it is going to allow the better team to prevail, or whether it should double down on the Heat and resign themselves to being the next WWE.

Drew

05-27-2014, 02:05 PM

I was pretty miffed about the calls in game 1 going 100% to the Pacers but I'm glad I didn't make a post about it because I didn't realize how much one sounds like a whiny titty-baby.

Keller

05-27-2014, 02:31 PM

The calls in game 1 were pretty even handed. It was before the league office recognized it needed to intervene. I understand how a Heat fan could view even refereeing as one-sided, though. I don't blame you, Drew, I blame the NBA for setting your expectations on calls that go the Heat's way.

Latrinsorm

05-27-2014, 09:16 PM

Heat were missing Birdman for game 4, may miss both him and Ray Allen for game 5 (http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/10990677/2014-nba-playoffs-chris-andersen-ray-allen-miami-heat-questionable-game-5). Or they're pulling a Thunder and blatantly lying on the injury report. Or, for that matter, a Pacers with Paul George's miracle concussion recovery.

Andersen was by a pretty wide margin the 4th best player on the Heat this year, and they have no like-for-like replacement for him. Allen comes in at 6th mostly by default due to all the lineup shuffling, and while James Jones can't run off screens like Ray he can spot up and provides a little more rim protection via taking charges, which is extra relevant due to no Andersen. In the least plausible outcome imaginable, the Heat might really miss Allen's perimeter defense against Paul George. Just typing that phrase out makes me worry I'm suffering a psychotic break and none of this is real. PG's stats are pretty much in line with his regular season stats: he's shifted a few shots into passes and the increased passing load has exacerbated his weakness there, but he's drawing fouls and taking threes at higher rates.

All told, I still expect the Heat to win game 5. Chalmers has been bad on offense and defense, he's bound to regress to the mean sooner or later. None of the Heat are enjoying especially pronounced production on the offensive end, if anything we'd expect Bosh and/or James to light it up from 3 or for James to draw a huge amount of free throws, and it would just be fantastic to see the Pacer fan reactions to that.

Drew

05-28-2014, 01:59 PM

The calls in game 1 were pretty even handed.

I'm not gonna bite on this weak ass trolling.

Keller

05-28-2014, 02:10 PM

Just because something is not what you want to hear does not make it trolling.

The truth is a bitter pill to swallow.

DoctorUnne

05-28-2014, 07:27 PM

I'm not sure whether I'd rather see Spurs/Heat or Thunder/Heat. Either would be amazing. Spurs prob have better chance to win, but would love to see Durant go up against LeBron again

Drew

05-28-2014, 09:20 PM

Well you should be happy tonight Keller, the refs are 100% trying to extend this series.

Drew

05-28-2014, 09:24 PM

Wow this is 2002 Sacramento level stuff. The refs are clearly saying that you're going to have to win this game without LeBron.

Keller

05-28-2014, 11:20 PM

Refs call the game fairly and a Miami fan says it's 100% in the Pacers favor?

http://the-mainboard.com/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/beaver.gifhttp://the-mainboard.com/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/beaver.gifhttp://the-mainboard.com/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/beaver.gifhttp://the-mainboard.com/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/beaver.gif

Keller

05-28-2014, 11:22 PM

But seriously - Heat fans might want to thank the refs for accurately calling fouls on Lebron (-4 for the game).

Latrinsorm

05-28-2014, 11:24 PM

Keller

05-28-2014, 11:31 PM

0% chance. Want to give me 100:1 odds? I'll take $10 on that action.

Drew

05-28-2014, 11:33 PM

Latrinsorm

05-28-2014, 11:33 PM

I don't need to take your money to prove how confident I am. That's what eating knives is for.

Keller

05-28-2014, 11:37 PM

What odds are you offering?

This goes for you, too, Drew.

Rimalon

05-29-2014, 01:29 AM

I was talking to Bryan/Rimalon after the game. You don't disappoint Keller.

Drew: I was watching the heat game
Bryan: yeah
fuckin
shit ass refs
Drew: dude
I've never seen a star get those ticky tack fouls
like that charge he was called on
the pacer was still in the air
how do you charge someone with a foot in the air?
Bryan: yup
conspiracy theories anew
Drew: I'm excited for Keller to say this was fair reffing
Bryan: hahah!
Drew HAHAHAHAH
http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?89879-NBA-2014-Playoffs!&p=1664616#post1664616
he already did it

Confirmed. Adam Silver WORSE than the Michael Jackson, WORSE than David Stern, WORSE than the Hulk Hogan.

Keller

05-29-2014, 08:14 AM

I was talking to Bryan/Rimalon after the game. You don't disappoint Keller.

Drew: I was watching the heat game
Bryan: yeah
fuckin
shit ass refs
Drew: dude
I've never seen a star get those ticky tack fouls
like that charge he was called on
the pacer was still in the air
how do you charge someone with a foot in the air?
Bryan: yup
conspiracy theories anew
Drew: I'm excited for Keller to say this was fair reffing
Bryan: hahah!
Drew HAHAHAHAH
http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?89879-NBA-2014-Playoffs!&p=1664616#post1664616
he already did it

The charge was obviously a make-up call for the ticky-tack offensive foul call against the Pacers on the immediately preceding possession.

Anything else you need explained? I've not had the opportunity to watch the NBA through the rose-tinted glasses of a Miami Heat fan, so I understand what NBA officiating usually looks like.

DoctorUnne

05-29-2014, 08:22 AM

If I were a Pacers fan I would have given the Pacers a standing ovation, because there's a 0% chance this series comes back to Indy. PG has the game of his life, LeBron is held to 24 minutes, no Andersen, no Turner, two crucial 50/50 calls in the last seconds go their way (OB Battier and off ball foul Battier) and the Pacers win by 3 at home. George will be worse, LeBron will be better, Andersen and Turner will both probably play, 50/50 calls will probably go 50/50, and game 6 will almost certainly be played in Miami. Series over.

Come on Latrin, I believe in stats and sample size as much as you, but if you're going to be analytical don't also be incredbly biased. First of all, they don't play the games on paper. But even if they did, no mention in your rant of Rashard Lewis hitting six threes? I think Miami wins in six too, but it's not over. I'd give the Pacers maybe a 10-15% chance.

Keller

05-29-2014, 08:51 AM

I am SHOCKED you think Latrin is biased when it comes to Lebron James and the Miami Heat.

Which thread over the last three years gave it away?

Keller

05-29-2014, 09:04 AM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BozYLxdIEAEXLCv.jpg

Drew

05-29-2014, 09:12 AM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BozYLxdIEAEXLCv.jpg

Hah, that's pretty funny.

Latrinsorm

05-29-2014, 01:07 PM

Come on Latrin, I believe in stats and sample size as much as you, but if you're going to be analytical don't also be incredbly biased. First of all, they don't play the games on paper. But even if they did, no mention in your rant of Rashard Lewis hitting six threes? I think Miami wins in six too, but it's not over. I'd give the Pacers maybe a 10-15% chance.I think describing my post as a "rant" shows which one of us is biased.

As for Rashard, the Pacers are allowing him open spot-up looks. I don't expect him to shoot 67%, but 50% is a reasonable expectation. That's only a difference of 1.5 makes for 4.5 points, which is not as significant as the other factors I mentioned. Paul George's deviation from expectation in FG% was worth 7.6 points, LeBron's 7, and while individual plays are obviously not worth as much the timing gave them more leverage.

While they don't play games on paper, the NBA produces a uniquely large sample in playoff series: 7 times the games as the NFL, 3 times the scoring possessions as MLB. This is why something as simple as non-close record can predict NBA outcomes with 80% accuracy. This larger sample size and the extremes to which LeBron and George diverged from their true talent levels are why I made the first two predictions. I don't expect them to have above-average games by their standards, just average. That's what average means. Same with expecting 50/50 calls to go 50/50 - that's what 50/50 means.

As for odds, I don't bet. I certainly wouldn't break with that practice if I'm guaranteed to win.

Latrinsorm

05-29-2014, 01:39 PM

I have mentioned the comp of Paul George as Sidney Moncrief before. After last night's performance, I wondered if the Squid had ever put up 30 in a playoff game, and it turns out he has:

Once in 1985 to outmatch Michael Jordan's 23 point 10 assist performance. (The other Bulls starters that game: Wes Matthews Sr., Orlando Woolridge, Dave Greenwood, Dave Corzine.)

Twice in 1987 as he pushed the defending champion Celtics (who were pursuing a fourth straight Finals) to a 7 game classic, including scoring 33 points on 72% shooting and staving off elimination in game 5 with a narrow win, leading teammate Craig Hodges to flagrantly ignore the one-nickname convention and christen him "Super Sid (http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/boston/doc/294460210.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=May+14%2C+1987&author=MacMullan%2C+Jackie&pub=Boston+Globe+%28pre-1997+Fulltext%29&edition=&startpage=&desc=FRESH+SPIRIT+MOVES+BUCKS+MONCRIEF+PUTS+WORDS+ INTO+ACTION)"... although you do have to wonder whether they could have pulled it off if the Celtics had their free-spirited and feisty backup center Bill Walton in uniform. Eventually the Bucks lost out to the man who was MVP the previous year but was still the greatest SF alive - Larry Bird. (Who for his efforts received a bizarrely sexually charged article (http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/boston/doc/294500652.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=May+18%2C+1987&author=Thomsen%2C+Ian&pub=Boston+Globe+%28pre-1997+Fulltext%29&edition=&startpage=&desc=NOW+THAT+WAS+A+LARRY+BIRD+GAME%21) in the same paper.)

Win or lose, the Bucks showed once again that they could compete with the flashier big boys, and with Bird passing his prime they were in position to contend for the Finals for years to come. Except... they were already done. It was the high point of Moncrief's career and the high water mark for Buck success until 2001.

It's stories like these that make the Harden trade and the looming Stevenson contract imbroglio so frustrating. Your stars are still going to be good right up until they aren't anymore. You've gotta go for it while you can.

Keller

05-29-2014, 03:52 PM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BozxWLaIIAE57iY.jpg

Keller

05-29-2014, 05:11 PM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bo0TI_9CMAEY4JX.jpg:large

DoctorUnne

05-29-2014, 08:15 PM

I am SHOCKED you think Latrin is biased when it comes to Lebron James and the Miami Heat.

Which thread over the last three years gave it away?

It's more that he seems to me to genuinely believe he's not biased yet uses blatantly biased statistical analysis to support his arguments, when the purpose of statistical analysis is to uncover and eliminate biases (although Latrin's posts would be proof that you can torture data enough to make it confess anything). Maybe I'm wrong and he's trolling more often than I think, but I feel the need to call him out on it every so often just in case. I'm certainly guilty of it myself when it comes to Boston teams.

Latrinsorm

05-29-2014, 09:33 PM

Well, what's biased about it? Surely we can agree that PG's performance was above his average and LeBron's below, and surely we can agree that the two calls referenced were as close to 50/50 as you can get, especially the out of bounds call. Aren't the effects I described the most significant in terms of points? I could have gone through every single player, but as you know I am absolutely committed to concision over pedantry.

Latrinsorm

05-30-2014, 02:06 PM

Another 15 grand in Pacer flopping fines (http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/11002342/2014-nba-playoffs-roy-hibbert-lance-stephenson-indiana-pacers-fined-flops), which undoubtedly pales in comparison to PG's paternity suit (http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/11006257/paul-george-indiana-pacers-hit-paternity-suit-former-stripper). Midwestern values.

In what I can only assume is an intentional shot at Kobe, Steve Nash declares that he doesn't (http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/11003504/steve-nash-not-seeking-say-los-angeles-lakers-coaching-hire) need to be consulted on the Lakers' coaching hire. Loving it.

AnticorRifling

05-30-2014, 02:36 PM

Latrinsorm

05-30-2014, 04:44 PM

Inglewood is in the upper Midwest of Los Angeles, just like Brooklyn is the Midwest of New York City. Duhhhhhh.

SHAFT

05-30-2014, 04:46 PM

Inglewood is in the upper Midwest of Los Angeles, just like Brooklyn is the Midwest of New York City. Duhhhhhh.

Southern part of LA, but who's keeping track?

Latrinsorm

05-30-2014, 05:02 PM

Southern part of LA, but who's keeping track?Ohhh. I was using this map:
http://w0.fast-meteo.com/locationmaps/Inglewood.10.gif
They have an extra Inglewood in big type for some reason, I thought it was the real one but on further review it is not.

SHAFT

05-30-2014, 05:06 PM

Inglewood always up to no good

Keller

05-30-2014, 05:06 PM

It's more that he seems to me to genuinely believe he's not biased yet uses blatantly biased statistical analysis to support his arguments, when the purpose of statistical analysis is to uncover and eliminate biases (although Latrin's posts would be proof that you can torture data enough to make it confess anything). Maybe I'm wrong and he's trolling more often than I think, but I feel the need to call him out on it every so often just in case. I'm certainly guilty of it myself when it comes to Boston teams.

I bet he'd photoshop a city name in the middle of a map if it fit his narrative.

Keller

05-30-2014, 05:07 PM

Ohhh. I was using this map:
http://w0.fast-meteo.com/locationmaps/Inglewood.10.gif
They have an extra Inglewood in big type for some reason, I thought it was the real one but on further review it is not.

.... and on queue he comes through!

Warriorbird

05-30-2014, 05:13 PM

Inglewood always up to no good

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDZ961xhNEo

Latrinsorm

05-30-2014, 05:17 PM

It's called MSPaint, not Photoshop, and... um, I mean it looked that way when I found it!!!

Seriously though, the only text I add to pictures are for Kina Grannis lyric-picture contests, and Drew made me promise not to bring my totally understandable and legitimate obsession with her (his words) into basketball threads anymore.

Anyway, I came here to post that the Pacers received $15,000,000 in revenue sharing this year. Just file that away when they pretend they can't afford to go into the tax this offseason.

Drew

05-30-2014, 05:53 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58e7pGMRq_o&feature=youtu.be

Atlanteax

05-30-2014, 09:29 PM

Halfway thru 2nd. Paul George has disappeared and Lance has lost emotional self control. Indy's defeat is assured.

Drew

05-30-2014, 09:41 PM

I'm not watching the game, I just assume the Heat are going to dominate them.

SHAFT

05-30-2014, 10:50 PM

I'm not watching the game, I just assume the Heat are going to dominate them.

It's a really good game. The pacers are putting up a helluva fight.

Latrinsorm

05-31-2014, 01:43 PM

So here's the thought process for the Pacers:

1. Miami's better is better than Indy's better, as demonstrated last night.
2. Miami's average is better than Indy's average, as demonstrated by regular season standings minus close games.
3. There is still mathematical hope if the Pacers can get to their better more frequently than Miami can, but it doesn't look that way.

Going forward, they need to get better or Miami to get worse, and it's not clear how either will happen. As hard as it is to believe, Miami has much more cap flexibility next year than Indiana does. They have slightly more money on the books (at $69.4 to $65.7), but the overwhelming majority of that are the Big Three player options. The only guaranteed contracts are Chris Andersen and Norris Cole for $3.6m total. Bosh is already on record saying he'll take less (http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/10996121/chris-bosh-potential-free-agent-says-intends-remain-miami-heat) again to stay in Miami. It's fun to wonder about a re-Decision but with their domination of Indiana it's hard to imagine LeBron leaving the Heat for a Western Conference team, and nobody else in the East is appealing. Wade is the rarest commodity of a team-first shooting guard, his cooperation seems a given as well. There are a lot of spots to refill, especially if Allen and Battier retire and Chalmers chases a paycheck, but this team has established an ability to bring in good role players since the 2011 offseason.

Meanwhile the Pacers are pretty much stuck. The only non-guaranteed money is Evan Turner's $8.7m qualifying offer and Donald Sloan's $1m team option, so they have about $22m of room under the tax. This is plenty to fit $15m, the max offer allowable to Lance Stephenson, and they also get to give him higher raises per year than any other team. Let me be clear: even though he's an unrestricted free agent, the Pacers can make the absolute best possible offer to Lance. No other team can beat the $$. But...

They still won't have enough shooting, they still won't have enough passing. Roy Hibbert's 2013 ECF was clearly a fluke, and he is settling into a 10/8 guy with elite rim protection. That's a fine player to have, but that's all the player he's going to be. It's hard to distinguish whether Paul George improved or merely got more touches. It's probably both, but he's at (or probably past) the ceiling of touches he can use, and even though 23 seems young the average NBA efficiency peak is in the 24-25 range. It's not a sharp peak, but it's still the end of the increase. If he's going to get better, it's not going to be much. The starting unit is fine as-is, routinely outplaying Miami's starting unit(s). Here's the move:

Renounce the rights to Evan Turner and Donald Sloan. Terrible fit and terrible player respectively.
Sign Lance to $40m for 4 years. Have Larry put the whammy on him if necessary.
Sign-and-trade Kyle Lowry ($40m for 4 years) and Steve Novak for George Hill and Luis Scola.
This all puts the Pacers at +$1.3m on the books, so they still have a little room under the cap for exception guys or to sweeten the deals to Lance/Lowry.

New rotation:
point - Lowry, Watson
wing - George, Stephenson, Copeland, Novak
big - Hibbert, West, Mahinmi

The NBA is changing, and the Pacers are being left behind. For the third straight year, the NBA as a league set a record for highest % of possessions ending in a three point attempt. There were 15 teams above and below the league average in that figure, 11 of 16 playoff teams were above average and 3 of 4 Conference Finalists. Sometimes when you follow everyone you jump off a bridge, sometimes when you don't you're the last guy wearing shrubs instead of khakis. This is the latter.

Latrinsorm

05-31-2014, 01:55 PM

If I was writing the story, I would have the Thunder lose to the Spurs. The parallel is to Drexler and the Blazers of the late 80s / early 90s. They finally break the Lakers (Spurs) hegemony over the Western Conference only to get plastered by the blue collar EC tough guy Pistons (Heat). The next year it turns out the snake isn't dead yet, as the Lakers' last gasp returns to the Finals. The Blazers have to wait for their next shot, but suddenly their window has closed because young superstar Michael Jordan (John Wall) from the East bests them, and Drexler (Durant) can't lead his team any further. He slowly declines but then is traded in the last years of his career to Houston to reunite with old teammate Olajuwon (Harden). They enjoyed great success in those days (Final Four / Finals) but never quite got all the way. Their championship is somewhat marred by John Wall mysteriously having left the game to play professional kickball, but at the end of the day a ring's a ring.