Latrinsorm
04-15-2014, 07:36 PM
Durant is going to and should be the MVP. Let's get that out of the way at the top.
Scoring
I think everyone's first impulse would be to say Durant has the edge as a pure scorer... but do the stats back that up? This year Durant scored 2551 points on 1658 FGAs and 790 FTAs, good for 1.272 points per shot. LeBron's numbers work out to 1.297(!). Even more interesting is that their career marks are at 1.200 to 1.162 in favor of Durant, and even if we cut out LeBron's brutal rookie mark of 0.976 his career only gets up to 1.179. It's only in the last two years that LeBron has hit this stratospheric efficiency. He's one of only three players to put up 25+ points per game with 60+ eFG% (Barkley, McHale).
Durant clearly has a small edge in volume this year, although we get another reverse for the career numbers: LeBron 27.52, Durant 27.37. The bottom line is that Durant is a better scorer, but the margin is extremely tight.
Passing
The margin is not tight here. LeBron crushes Durant. They each have 3.5 turnovers per game, but LeBron has almost another full assist per game at 6.4 to 5.5, and LeBron has generated 2.270 points per assist to Durant's 2.162. A big edge in volume and a pretty big edge in efficiency = crushed.
Rebounding and Defense
These are hard to measure. Rebounds, steals, and blocks are easy to measure, but they do a very poor job of telling you how well an individual contributes to team rebounding and team defense. One thing we can do instead is a kind of rebounding ±: what are the rebound rates with and without the player? And the same for DRtg:
Player OR% DR% DRtg
Durant -1.7 1.9 2.4
LeBron -4.4 -1.7 -4.8The results mostly make sense. LeBron is a good individual rebounder, but if your power forward is handling on the pick and roll it's a lot harder for him to be near the basket, so he kills the OR%. Similar story with DR%: LeBron is the best Miami perimeter defender, so he's usually on the perimeter while Ray Allen or Rashard Lewis or whoever hides out on an unthreatening big. Durant is a good individual rebounder too, but unlike LeBron he has a guy on the team who absolutely refuses to let him play with the ball in his hands, and unlike LeBron he is not the best perimeter defender so he's the guy hiding nearer the basket.
The big surprise is that for all the talk about LeBron coasting on defense, Miami has still been dramatically worse without him and the Thunder have still been better without Durant. How can the Heat be so much better with LeBron if he kills their rebounding? Because rebounding doesn't matter nearly as much as shooting, where LeBron has a major impact on both sides of the ball.
Fancy Crap
LeBron's usually exceptional (15+) on/off has plummeted to 6.2 this year, and while most of that came in the beginning of the year it still counts. Durant is surprisingly not that great by on/off (career 2.3!!!), and this year his is only 6.0. Real Plus Minus takes two seasons into account which is great for reducing noise but less great for asking who the best player was this season. LeBron 2013 was one of the greatest seasons of all time, so great that the only real comparison is Jordan 1991. Durant's 2013 was great and 2014 really great, but not that great, so he can't catch up in any measure that takes 2013 into account too.
.
Durant is going to and should be the MVP insofar as this year has come after a 30 year pattern where that would be the case, but the statistical revolution is over and the nerds have won, and it will be interesting to see how voting trends change as the Zach Lowes (for example) starts to replace the Marc Steins and Gary Washburns (for example).
Scoring
I think everyone's first impulse would be to say Durant has the edge as a pure scorer... but do the stats back that up? This year Durant scored 2551 points on 1658 FGAs and 790 FTAs, good for 1.272 points per shot. LeBron's numbers work out to 1.297(!). Even more interesting is that their career marks are at 1.200 to 1.162 in favor of Durant, and even if we cut out LeBron's brutal rookie mark of 0.976 his career only gets up to 1.179. It's only in the last two years that LeBron has hit this stratospheric efficiency. He's one of only three players to put up 25+ points per game with 60+ eFG% (Barkley, McHale).
Durant clearly has a small edge in volume this year, although we get another reverse for the career numbers: LeBron 27.52, Durant 27.37. The bottom line is that Durant is a better scorer, but the margin is extremely tight.
Passing
The margin is not tight here. LeBron crushes Durant. They each have 3.5 turnovers per game, but LeBron has almost another full assist per game at 6.4 to 5.5, and LeBron has generated 2.270 points per assist to Durant's 2.162. A big edge in volume and a pretty big edge in efficiency = crushed.
Rebounding and Defense
These are hard to measure. Rebounds, steals, and blocks are easy to measure, but they do a very poor job of telling you how well an individual contributes to team rebounding and team defense. One thing we can do instead is a kind of rebounding ±: what are the rebound rates with and without the player? And the same for DRtg:
Player OR% DR% DRtg
Durant -1.7 1.9 2.4
LeBron -4.4 -1.7 -4.8The results mostly make sense. LeBron is a good individual rebounder, but if your power forward is handling on the pick and roll it's a lot harder for him to be near the basket, so he kills the OR%. Similar story with DR%: LeBron is the best Miami perimeter defender, so he's usually on the perimeter while Ray Allen or Rashard Lewis or whoever hides out on an unthreatening big. Durant is a good individual rebounder too, but unlike LeBron he has a guy on the team who absolutely refuses to let him play with the ball in his hands, and unlike LeBron he is not the best perimeter defender so he's the guy hiding nearer the basket.
The big surprise is that for all the talk about LeBron coasting on defense, Miami has still been dramatically worse without him and the Thunder have still been better without Durant. How can the Heat be so much better with LeBron if he kills their rebounding? Because rebounding doesn't matter nearly as much as shooting, where LeBron has a major impact on both sides of the ball.
Fancy Crap
LeBron's usually exceptional (15+) on/off has plummeted to 6.2 this year, and while most of that came in the beginning of the year it still counts. Durant is surprisingly not that great by on/off (career 2.3!!!), and this year his is only 6.0. Real Plus Minus takes two seasons into account which is great for reducing noise but less great for asking who the best player was this season. LeBron 2013 was one of the greatest seasons of all time, so great that the only real comparison is Jordan 1991. Durant's 2013 was great and 2014 really great, but not that great, so he can't catch up in any measure that takes 2013 into account too.
.
Durant is going to and should be the MVP insofar as this year has come after a 30 year pattern where that would be the case, but the statistical revolution is over and the nerds have won, and it will be interesting to see how voting trends change as the Zach Lowes (for example) starts to replace the Marc Steins and Gary Washburns (for example).