Latrinsorm
04-11-2014, 02:51 PM
I talked about this in the main thread, but it's gonna get pretty long so now it's its own thread. The data, courtesy of the Ene Be A (http://stats.nba.com/leagueLineups.html?Season=2012-13&pageNo=2&rowsPerPage=50&PerMode=Totals&sortField=MIN&sortOrder=DES) and Stef for mentioning vlookup:
Team 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
ATL) 351 397 383 1169 567 541
BKN) 640 156 257 326 331 343
BOS) 244 327 514 1177 1073 1071
CHA) 279 161 363 453 807 492
CHI) 428 289 419 451 318 194
CLE) 421 311 233 383 484 214
DAL) 195 190 350 341 391 198
DEN) 796 135 309 535 539 922
DET) 605 569 172 303 294 1137
GSW) 515 276 686 124 85 510
HOU) 565 455 796 821 555 356
IND) 1217 1000 443 425 233 252
LAC) 700 648 327 405 386 176
LAL) 339 492 952 667 498 387
MEM) 631 522 403 1468 707 206
MIA) 687 534 427 285 360 183
MIL) 388 180 392 281 227 497
MIN) 376 267 472 294 261 227
NOH) 505 156 881 495 422 1208
NYK) 268 262 572 446 311 264
OKC) 1307 663 541 1305 278 204
ORL) 229 529 630 771 415 672
PHI) 382 196 776 252 783 867
PHX) 441 746 363 827 392 422
POR) 1078 404 451 371 560 570
SAC) 581 317 176 118 205 380
SAS) 363 189 687 229 552 419
TOR) 342 150 271 369 384 554
UTA) 453 401 748 327 467 972
WAS) 283 200 255 162 281 736
Avg 520 371 475 519 439 506
Stdev 278 211 210 355 206 310
I checked the Golden State number for 2009 literally millions of times. Don Nelson is a lunatic, what can I say. 15 different players started at least 5 games, no player started more than 59. Another thing we can look at quickly is the average for each team:
734 BOS)
716 OKC)
656 MEM)
611 NOH)
595 IND)
591 HOU)
572 POR)
568 ATL)
561 UTA)
556 LAL)
543 PHI)
541 ORL)
539 DEN)
532 PHX)
513 DET)
440 LAC)
426 CHA)
413 MIA)
407 SAS)
366 GSW)
354 NYK)
350 CHI)
345 TOR)
342 BKN)
341 CLE)
328 MIL)
320 WAS)
316 MIN)
296 SAC)
278 DAL)
Doesn't really seem too correlated with long term success! Boston OKC Memphis are good teams, but so are Dallas and San Anton.
.
Let's go season by season, say that the top two seeds ought to reach the Conference Finals, and see if there's any correlation with the team's max lineup position for that season.
2013
Heat (6) in, Knicks (27) lose to Pacers (2)
Spurs (21) in, Thunder (1) lose to Grizzlies (8) [injury]
2012
Heat (6) in, Bulls (17) lose to 76ers (23) [injury]
Thunder (3) and Spurs (24) in
2011
Heat (15) and Bulls (16) in
Spurs (6) lose to Grizzlies (17), Lakers (1) lose to Mavs (22) [Kobe sucks]
2010
Magic (7) in, Cavs (16) lose to Celtics (3)
Lakers (8) in, Mavs (19) lose to Spurs (27)
2009
Cavs (11) in, Celtics (1) lose to Magic (14)
Lakers (10) and Nuggets (9) in
2008
Celtics (3) and Pistons (2) in
Lakers (17) in, Hornets (1) lose to Spurs (16)
.
To me, it looks like there are three basic (albeit loose) rules:
1. Be way ahead of the other guy.
2. Unless you're #1, in which case you're screwed.
3. Or you're the Spurs, in which case you're a sorcerer anyway so there are no rules.
.
We can also look at each champion and see how their matchups shook out:
2008 Celtics 3 beat Hawks 10 Cavs 24 Pistons 2 Lakers 17
2009 Lakers 10 beat Jazz 12 Rockets 7 Nuggets 9 Magic 14
2010 Lakers 8 beat Thunder 2 Jazz 20 Suns 5 Celtics 3
2011 Mavs 22 beat Blazers 13 Lakers 1 Thunder 10 Heat 16
2012 Heat 6 beat Knicks 20 Pacers 1 Celtics 14 Thunder 3
2013 Heat 6 beat Bucks 18 Bulls 16 Pacers 2 Spurs 21
Doesn't really seem to be much of a pattern. Oh well! Now we know.
Team 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
ATL) 351 397 383 1169 567 541
BKN) 640 156 257 326 331 343
BOS) 244 327 514 1177 1073 1071
CHA) 279 161 363 453 807 492
CHI) 428 289 419 451 318 194
CLE) 421 311 233 383 484 214
DAL) 195 190 350 341 391 198
DEN) 796 135 309 535 539 922
DET) 605 569 172 303 294 1137
GSW) 515 276 686 124 85 510
HOU) 565 455 796 821 555 356
IND) 1217 1000 443 425 233 252
LAC) 700 648 327 405 386 176
LAL) 339 492 952 667 498 387
MEM) 631 522 403 1468 707 206
MIA) 687 534 427 285 360 183
MIL) 388 180 392 281 227 497
MIN) 376 267 472 294 261 227
NOH) 505 156 881 495 422 1208
NYK) 268 262 572 446 311 264
OKC) 1307 663 541 1305 278 204
ORL) 229 529 630 771 415 672
PHI) 382 196 776 252 783 867
PHX) 441 746 363 827 392 422
POR) 1078 404 451 371 560 570
SAC) 581 317 176 118 205 380
SAS) 363 189 687 229 552 419
TOR) 342 150 271 369 384 554
UTA) 453 401 748 327 467 972
WAS) 283 200 255 162 281 736
Avg 520 371 475 519 439 506
Stdev 278 211 210 355 206 310
I checked the Golden State number for 2009 literally millions of times. Don Nelson is a lunatic, what can I say. 15 different players started at least 5 games, no player started more than 59. Another thing we can look at quickly is the average for each team:
734 BOS)
716 OKC)
656 MEM)
611 NOH)
595 IND)
591 HOU)
572 POR)
568 ATL)
561 UTA)
556 LAL)
543 PHI)
541 ORL)
539 DEN)
532 PHX)
513 DET)
440 LAC)
426 CHA)
413 MIA)
407 SAS)
366 GSW)
354 NYK)
350 CHI)
345 TOR)
342 BKN)
341 CLE)
328 MIL)
320 WAS)
316 MIN)
296 SAC)
278 DAL)
Doesn't really seem too correlated with long term success! Boston OKC Memphis are good teams, but so are Dallas and San Anton.
.
Let's go season by season, say that the top two seeds ought to reach the Conference Finals, and see if there's any correlation with the team's max lineup position for that season.
2013
Heat (6) in, Knicks (27) lose to Pacers (2)
Spurs (21) in, Thunder (1) lose to Grizzlies (8) [injury]
2012
Heat (6) in, Bulls (17) lose to 76ers (23) [injury]
Thunder (3) and Spurs (24) in
2011
Heat (15) and Bulls (16) in
Spurs (6) lose to Grizzlies (17), Lakers (1) lose to Mavs (22) [Kobe sucks]
2010
Magic (7) in, Cavs (16) lose to Celtics (3)
Lakers (8) in, Mavs (19) lose to Spurs (27)
2009
Cavs (11) in, Celtics (1) lose to Magic (14)
Lakers (10) and Nuggets (9) in
2008
Celtics (3) and Pistons (2) in
Lakers (17) in, Hornets (1) lose to Spurs (16)
.
To me, it looks like there are three basic (albeit loose) rules:
1. Be way ahead of the other guy.
2. Unless you're #1, in which case you're screwed.
3. Or you're the Spurs, in which case you're a sorcerer anyway so there are no rules.
.
We can also look at each champion and see how their matchups shook out:
2008 Celtics 3 beat Hawks 10 Cavs 24 Pistons 2 Lakers 17
2009 Lakers 10 beat Jazz 12 Rockets 7 Nuggets 9 Magic 14
2010 Lakers 8 beat Thunder 2 Jazz 20 Suns 5 Celtics 3
2011 Mavs 22 beat Blazers 13 Lakers 1 Thunder 10 Heat 16
2012 Heat 6 beat Knicks 20 Pacers 1 Celtics 14 Thunder 3
2013 Heat 6 beat Bucks 18 Bulls 16 Pacers 2 Spurs 21
Doesn't really seem to be much of a pattern. Oh well! Now we know.