Buffet's Billion $ NCAA Bracket Challenge

[Wrathbringer]

Anyone else enter? Can't wait for Buffet to accompany me to the final game. I'll have binged on Taco Bell, fiber bars and warm pbr in the preceding 48 hours. He's going to love sitting by me for 3 hours.

[tallkris3]

Anyone else enter? Can't wait for Buffet to accompany me to the final game. I'll have binged on Taco Bell, fiber bars and warm pbr in the preceding 48 hours. He's going to love sitting by me for 3 hours.

That's exactly what I'd be doing the 48 hours prior to a shot at winning $1 billion dollars.

[cwolff]

Anyone else enter? Can't wait for Buffet to accompany me to the final game. I'll have binged on Taco Bell, fiber bars and warm pbr in the preceding 48 hours. He's going to love sitting by me for 3 hours.

He's going to want to talk to you before the final four. His idea is to offer you $100,000,000.00 to abandon your bet, if you've actually been able to get that far with perfection. Are you going to take it?

[Wrathbringer]

He's going to want to talk to you before the final four. His idea is to offer you $100,000,000.00 to abandon your bet, if you've actually been able to get that far with perfection. Are you going to take it?

Absolutely. I'll need 48 hours notice before the meeting for obvious reasons.

[Ker_Thwap]

Not enough to induce me to give my personal information to Quicken.

[Gelston]

I'd take the 100m if that was true. I can live just as awesomely with 100m as I could with 1b.

[Warriorbird]

I would too.

[tallkris3]

He's going to want to talk to you before the final four. His idea is to offer you $100,000,000.00 to abandon your bet, if you've actually been able to get that far with perfection. Are you going to take it?

How low would you go? Would you take 10m instead of a shot at 1b? 5m? 1m?

[Gemstones]

How low would you go? Would you take 10m instead of a shot at 1b? 5m? 1m?

1 million before the final four? I would accept that. The odds are against you at that point in terms of your bracket continuing to hold true through the championships. 1 million, even after taxes, can go far over time if you invest it properly. It'll provide decent income. Now, if you have lavish desires, then obviously it won't go very far.

[DoctorUnne]

You could cut a deal with someone else who is wealthy for much more than $100M. I heard Buffet's insurer won't allow it though.

[Parkbandit]

Thanks a lot Cincinnati.. now I'm out.

Fuckers.

[Warriorbird]

I'll probably head out tomorrow night. Too big an upset rooted for.

[RSR]

BYU let me down. Had 7/8 aside from that one blemish!

[waywardgs]

20 games down and out of 11 million submitted brackets, there are only 66 perfects left.

[cwolff]

20 games down and out of 11 million submitted brackets, there are only 66 perfects left.

Damn. That's insane. Last night I saw that 80% of the brackets were busted. This is a great marketing plan for Quicken Loans.

[waywardgs]

Damn. That's insane. Last night I saw that 80% of the brackets were busted. This is a great marketing plan for Quicken Loans.

And that's all it ever really was. The odds are something like 9 quintillion to one that someone actually won the damn thing.


http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2014/03/billion_dollar_bracket_challenge_why_it_s_a_bad_id ea_to_enter_warren_buffett.html

[cwolff]

And that's all it ever really was. The odds are something like 9 quintillion to one that someone actually won the damn thing.

Any ideas how the odds have changed for the 66 that are left? I'm too far removed from college to remember how to figure this out. I did read that if someone makes it to the final four with a perfect bracket, Buffet is going to offer that person 100 million to quit the bet. If you did have it perfect, going in to the final four, what are the odds of winning it outright?

[RichardCranium]

Any ideas how the odds have changed for the 66 that are left? I'm too far removed from college to remember how to figure this out. I did read that if someone makes it to the final four with a perfect bracket, Buffet is going to offer that person 100 million to quit the bet. If you did have it perfect, going in to the final four, what are the odds of winning it outright?

I don't know exactly, but you'd be insane not to take the 100 million.

[cwolff]

Ok we started with odds of 1 In 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. Next round should be 1 in 2,147,483,648. If you survive that you have a 1 in 32,768. Make it to the great 8 and things are looking up. Odds here seem to be 1 in 128. Final four is 1 in 8. And make it to the finals it's 50/50. Is that math right? No wonder Buffet would give you 100,000,000 to quit the bet at the final four.

[diethx]

I don't know exactly, but you'd be insane not to take the 100 million.

Certifiably so. I can't even imagine.

[cwolff]

Certifiably so. I can't even imagine.

Well, you've got a 12.5% chance of winning a billion at that point. The payout would be 10%.

[Gelston]

I'd rather take the 100% chance of 100m. Like I said earlier, what can you really do with 1b that you can't do with 100m?

[cwolff]

I'd rather take the 100% chance of 100m. Like I said earlier, what can you really do with 1b that you can't do with 100m?

I think you're right. It's not like the hookers are better for a 100 millionaire vs a billionaire and if I won that's where I'd be investing.

[Thondalar]

I've already lost 5 games in the first round. Oh well.

[cwolff]

I've already lost 5 games in the first round. Oh well.

Don't feel bad. Odds of a perfect 1st round: 1 in 4,294,967,296. Or maybe to be more realistic 1 in 268,435,456. Did all the #1 seeds win?

[Thondalar]

Some haven't played yet...Virginia plays tonight and Wichita State is playing right now. Florida and Arizona both won.

The upsets so far have been (11)Dayton over (6) Ohio State, (10)Stanford over (7) New Mexico, (12) Harvard over (5) Cincinnati, (12) N. Dakota St. over (5) Oklahoma, (11) Tennessee over (6) UMass, (14) Mercer over (3) Duke.

I picked the favorite in all of those. :(

[cwolff]

Some haven't played yet...Virginia plays tonight and Wichita State is playing right now. Florida and Arizona both won.

The upsets so far have been (11)Dayton over (6) Ohio State, (10)Stanford over (7) New Mexico, (12) Harvard over (5) Cincinnati, (12) N. Dakota St. over (5) Oklahoma, (11) Tennessee over (6) UMass, (14) Mercer over (3) Duke.

I picked the favorite in all of those. :(

I'm with you there. I'd have picked OSU over Dayton.

"Excluding the play-in games, a 16-seed has never won a game in the men's tournament". What is a play-in game? The reason I'm asking is because the 4 games for the 1 seed are pretty much a lock which improves the odds of a perfect first round bracket dramatically.

[RichardCranium]

I'm with you there. I'd have picked OSU over Dayton.

"Excluding the play-in games, a 16-seed has never won a game in the men's tournament". What is a play-in game? The reason I'm asking is because the 4 games for the 1 seed are pretty much a lock which improves the odds of a perfect first round bracket dramatically.

Before the final field of 64 is set, there are play-in games to determine the 16 seeds.

[Thondalar]

I'm with you there. I'd have picked OSU over Dayton.

Yeah...the only two on that list I struggled with were Stanford/New Mexico and Tennessee/UMass....I thought the rest were pretty solid locks. Mercer over Duke? I mean jeez.


"Excluding the play-in games, a 16-seed has never won a game in the men's tournament". What is a play-in game? The reason I'm asking is because the 4 games for the 1 seed are pretty much a lock which improves the odds of a perfect first round bracket dramatically.

I'm...actually not sure. Would that be like the Tennessee/Iowa game? Pre-first-round winner gets in sort of thing?

[RichardCranium]

I'm...actually not sure. Would that be like the Tennessee/Iowa game? Pre-first-round winner gets in sort of thing?

That's exactly what that game was.

[RichardCranium]

Qualifying:


A total of 68 teams qualify for the tournament played during March and April. Thirty-two teams earn automatic bids as their respective conference champions. Thirty-one of the thirty-two conferences hold championship tournaments to determine which team receives the automatic qualification. The Ivy League is the only conference that does not conduct a tournament. Instead its regular season champion automatically receives a tournament berth. A one game playoff determines the berth if two Ivies share a regular season championship.

The remaining thirty-six tournament slots are granted to at-large bids, which are determined by the Selection Committee in a nationally televised event on the Sunday preceding the First Four play-in tournament and dubbed Selection Sunday by the media and fans, a group primarily of conference commissioners and school athletic directors who are appointed into service by the NCAA. The committee also determines where all sixty-eight teams are seeded and placed in the bracket.

[cwolff]

So 68 teams get in, but 4 are eliminated through play-in games prior to setting the bracket. The winners of those play-in games are the 16th seeds. After the play-in games no 16th seed has won. Is that right?

[RichardCranium]

So 68 teams get in, but 4 are eliminated through play-in games prior to setting the bracket. The winners of those play-in games are the 16th seeds. After the play-in games no 16th seed has won. Is that right?

That is correct sahr.

[Thondalar]

Aaaaaand...North Dakota fucking State just beat Oklahoma. Fuck me man.

[RSR]

That is correct sahr.

Not correct at all. Some of the play-in winners were higher seeds. 11 seed for one I believe.

[RichardCranium]

Not correct at all. Some of the play-in winners were higher seeds. 11 seed for one I believe.

I didn't read his post that carefully. The play in determines the final field of 64, the committee determines which seed they are.

[cwolff]

Looks like seeding them above 16 is fairly new.


Although the new format, beginning in 2011, expanded to four opening round games, not all games necessarily feed into a No. 16 seed for the winner; nor, does each of the four regions necessarily have an opening round game. In 2011, for example, the East Region featured two opening round games and the West Region featured none. Also, the winners in two of the openers were awarded a No. 11 seed and No. 12 seed, respectively, in their designated region.

[RSR]

And everyone is eliminated now.

[Ker_Thwap]

And everyone is eliminated now.

... and Quicken has your personal information, suckers.

[cwolff]

I hope they do this again next year and I can't believe everyone out already. Were there more upsets this round than usual?


It only took 25 games for everyone to be eliminated. Then again most of brackets were knocked out on the tournament’s first full day. The number of unblemished brackets kept dwindling after third-seed Duke, sixth-seed UMass and seventh-seed New Mexico lost Friday.

Only 16 people remained perfect after 10th-seeded Stanford topped New Mexico. Then Tennessee routed UMass, leaving only six people with a chance of beating the 9.2 quintillion-to-1 odds.

Gonzaga’s victory over Oklahoma State cut that down to the final three. All three had ninth-seeded George Washington beating Memphis. The Tigers won 71-66.

[Warriorbird]

I hope they do this again next year and I can't believe everyone out already. Were there more upsets this round than usual?

There were quite a few. My students were laughing at me about Duke and all got eliminated later that day.

[Candor]

... and Quicken has your personal information, suckers.

...and many, many other people. Someone at Quicken is getting pats on the back for this one.

[cwolff]

This poor bastard. His brackets still perfect but he's in the wrong one.


Entering the round of 32 on Saturday, there was still one perfect bracket left on the Yahoo Sports website. However, the entrant isn't eligible to win the $1 billion prize.
Brad Binder, 23, of Buffalo Grove, Illinois, was able to accomplish what tournament pickers fantasize about.
He correctly picked every single game in the round of 64. And he was right in the first four games Saturday, too, reaching 36 correct picks.

[RichardCranium]

This poor bastard. His brackets still perfect but he's in the wrong one.

If I picked a perfect bracket and didn't enter for the billion dollars, I may very well kill myself.

[cwolff]

If I picked a perfect bracket and didn't enter for the billion dollars, I may very well kill myself.

Now he's hoping that he starts to lose. Even the top 20 brackets get 100k each.

[RichardCranium]

Lol, fuck the Shockers.

[DoctorUnne]

I think the exact number for Silver's bracket is in another link, but the odds of getting a perfect bracket if you know what you're doing is in the 100 billion to 1 range.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/buffetts-billion-wont-lead-to-a-perfect-bracket/