Atlanteax
09-17-2004, 05:48 PM
Unfortunately, the Liberals in the US will delay/prevent the "Australian Solution" (see below) from being more widely practiced in the US.
Though should only be a matter of time as the world population continues to grow, while population growth remains overall stagnant in the developed world.
Particularly in regard to Africa and SE Asia.
.
An STRATFOR Analysis
http://www.stratfor.com/free-scripts/comsite2.pl?page=BZdelivery&src_id=0224&transid=GE N20040917-478
The Baltic States and Chechen Refugees
September 17, 2004
Summary
At a Sept. 16 meeting in Vienna, ministers of four EU states discussed establishing a refugee camp to house fleeing Chechens. Officials from Austria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania agreed a camp would be preferable to sending the Chechens back to Russia. The proposal indicates the rapid evolution in EU thinking regarding Baltic security, European foreign relations and refugee policies.
Analysis
Interior ministers from Austria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania agreed Sept. 16 to propose the European Union build a refugee camp outside of the European Union to handle Chechens fleeing Russia. Though Ukraine, the apparent choice of location for the camp, will not approve the idea, the proposal itself indicates rapidly evolving thinking in the European Union regarding Baltic security, European foreign relations and refugee policies.
The Baltic states are famous for their dislike of Russia, and have tried on multiple occasions to embarrass Moscow. By proposing the idea of a refugee camp -- instead of merely deporting the Chechens back to Russia -- the Balts hope to paint Russia in the worst possible light. After all, the Balts point out, chronic human rights abuses is the reason these refugees are fleeing Russia in the first place.
The Balts believe it is in their self-interest to drive as big a wedge as possible between Moscow and Brussels. The colder the relationship, the thinking goes, the less likely Europe will be to grant Moscow concessions -- hence, the weaker Russia will be. In the Baltic mind, a weak, isolated Russia is less likely to roll through the tiny Baltic states.
As full members of the European Union, the Balts can ensure Russia constantly receives bad press and remains at the forefront of EU foreign policy considerations. For the Balts, simply bringing the Chechen refugee situation to the highest levels of discussion is a victory in and of itself.
The Balts' proposal also foreshadows future EU dealings on foreign policy. Enshrined in the proposed European Constitution is the realization that the idea of a united Europe speaking with a single voice has died. Once the constitution is ratified, any EU foreign policy must have the approval of all 25 member states before it can be presented to the outside world. Such a dysfunctional system does not mean the EU will have no foreign policy. It means the Union will have dozens of foreign polices, each formed by any coalition of countries that wants to speak on any given topic -- in this case, the three Baltic states on the topic of Russia/Chechnya.
The end result -- at least in the early years -- will be competing "foreign policies" at the top negotiation tables, which will lead to much confusion, and in many cases -- Russia's in particular -- resentment. The Balts are sure to make their point loud, clear and repeatedly, since Estonia's Siim Kallas is a European Commission vice president.
Austria's viewpoint also must be taken into consideration, since Vienna is hardly a disinterested outsider in this process. Austria has one of the more liberal refugee programs in the European Union, with a separate category specifically for Chechens. But Russian security services have made it clear that Chechen refugee camps typically act as satellite offices for Chechen organized crime. Austria is trying to devise a way balance its refugee program with its desire to avoid becoming a crime hub.
That does not mean Ukraine will be the lucky host. In fact, a source within the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry indicated that its response to the proposal -- as offered by the Lithuanians -- was a rather strong "go to hell." After all, Kiev does not exactly want to embrace the problem that Austria is attempting to avoid. Moreover, a source within Austria's Foreign Ministry indicated that Vienna was slightly stunned that Ukraine had even been mentioned and hinted it was completely a Baltic idea. That, of course, makes sense -- involving Ukraine sends more bad press Russia's way.
Just because Ukraine is not interested, does not mean there will be no takers.
Refugee flows are a problem politically, economically and socially for developed states, and most attempt to intercept those flows as far from their borders as possible -- and then keep the refugees away from the homeland. The United States picks up Haitian boat people on the high seas and ships them to either Panama or Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. Italy works closely with Libya to prevent refugees and migrants from even leaving Africa. But it is Australia's Pacific solution that the European Union as a whole seems to be on the verge of adopting.
In 2001, Australia began sending migrants/refugees to the Pacific island of Nauru for "processing," which is a nice way of saying to leave them to rot in the center of abandoned strip mines until they choose to go home of their own free will. The policy has proved immensely popular with all but the extreme left fringe in Australian politics. Nauru does not exactly treasure its role as prison guard, but the regular checks it receives from Australia more than sufficiently salve its conscience.
This policy is about to catch on in Europe. The Austrian source says Vienna already has plans to build a detention facility in Romania for Romanian migrants/refugees, and that the Germans are negotiating -- with enthusiastic Austrian support -- with a number of North African states to set up camps to hold all types of migrants/refugees, Chechens included.
Though should only be a matter of time as the world population continues to grow, while population growth remains overall stagnant in the developed world.
Particularly in regard to Africa and SE Asia.
.
An STRATFOR Analysis
http://www.stratfor.com/free-scripts/comsite2.pl?page=BZdelivery&src_id=0224&transid=GE N20040917-478
The Baltic States and Chechen Refugees
September 17, 2004
Summary
At a Sept. 16 meeting in Vienna, ministers of four EU states discussed establishing a refugee camp to house fleeing Chechens. Officials from Austria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania agreed a camp would be preferable to sending the Chechens back to Russia. The proposal indicates the rapid evolution in EU thinking regarding Baltic security, European foreign relations and refugee policies.
Analysis
Interior ministers from Austria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania agreed Sept. 16 to propose the European Union build a refugee camp outside of the European Union to handle Chechens fleeing Russia. Though Ukraine, the apparent choice of location for the camp, will not approve the idea, the proposal itself indicates rapidly evolving thinking in the European Union regarding Baltic security, European foreign relations and refugee policies.
The Baltic states are famous for their dislike of Russia, and have tried on multiple occasions to embarrass Moscow. By proposing the idea of a refugee camp -- instead of merely deporting the Chechens back to Russia -- the Balts hope to paint Russia in the worst possible light. After all, the Balts point out, chronic human rights abuses is the reason these refugees are fleeing Russia in the first place.
The Balts believe it is in their self-interest to drive as big a wedge as possible between Moscow and Brussels. The colder the relationship, the thinking goes, the less likely Europe will be to grant Moscow concessions -- hence, the weaker Russia will be. In the Baltic mind, a weak, isolated Russia is less likely to roll through the tiny Baltic states.
As full members of the European Union, the Balts can ensure Russia constantly receives bad press and remains at the forefront of EU foreign policy considerations. For the Balts, simply bringing the Chechen refugee situation to the highest levels of discussion is a victory in and of itself.
The Balts' proposal also foreshadows future EU dealings on foreign policy. Enshrined in the proposed European Constitution is the realization that the idea of a united Europe speaking with a single voice has died. Once the constitution is ratified, any EU foreign policy must have the approval of all 25 member states before it can be presented to the outside world. Such a dysfunctional system does not mean the EU will have no foreign policy. It means the Union will have dozens of foreign polices, each formed by any coalition of countries that wants to speak on any given topic -- in this case, the three Baltic states on the topic of Russia/Chechnya.
The end result -- at least in the early years -- will be competing "foreign policies" at the top negotiation tables, which will lead to much confusion, and in many cases -- Russia's in particular -- resentment. The Balts are sure to make their point loud, clear and repeatedly, since Estonia's Siim Kallas is a European Commission vice president.
Austria's viewpoint also must be taken into consideration, since Vienna is hardly a disinterested outsider in this process. Austria has one of the more liberal refugee programs in the European Union, with a separate category specifically for Chechens. But Russian security services have made it clear that Chechen refugee camps typically act as satellite offices for Chechen organized crime. Austria is trying to devise a way balance its refugee program with its desire to avoid becoming a crime hub.
That does not mean Ukraine will be the lucky host. In fact, a source within the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry indicated that its response to the proposal -- as offered by the Lithuanians -- was a rather strong "go to hell." After all, Kiev does not exactly want to embrace the problem that Austria is attempting to avoid. Moreover, a source within Austria's Foreign Ministry indicated that Vienna was slightly stunned that Ukraine had even been mentioned and hinted it was completely a Baltic idea. That, of course, makes sense -- involving Ukraine sends more bad press Russia's way.
Just because Ukraine is not interested, does not mean there will be no takers.
Refugee flows are a problem politically, economically and socially for developed states, and most attempt to intercept those flows as far from their borders as possible -- and then keep the refugees away from the homeland. The United States picks up Haitian boat people on the high seas and ships them to either Panama or Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. Italy works closely with Libya to prevent refugees and migrants from even leaving Africa. But it is Australia's Pacific solution that the European Union as a whole seems to be on the verge of adopting.
In 2001, Australia began sending migrants/refugees to the Pacific island of Nauru for "processing," which is a nice way of saying to leave them to rot in the center of abandoned strip mines until they choose to go home of their own free will. The policy has proved immensely popular with all but the extreme left fringe in Australian politics. Nauru does not exactly treasure its role as prison guard, but the regular checks it receives from Australia more than sufficiently salve its conscience.
This policy is about to catch on in Europe. The Austrian source says Vienna already has plans to build a detention facility in Romania for Romanian migrants/refugees, and that the Germans are negotiating -- with enthusiastic Austrian support -- with a number of North African states to set up camps to hold all types of migrants/refugees, Chechens included.