NBA: Playoff Series by Cumulative Points

[Latrinsorm]

In the past 10 years, there have been 150 playoff series. Of these, one team outscored the other by more than 2 points per game on average 124 times... and won 124 of those series. Of the other 26, the series have been split 13-13. Thus, the result of any series whose cumulative margin is 2 points per game or less is a matter of luck. So... what are those 26 series? With the lucky winner listed first, and with teams that went to the Finals in bold:



2013
Heat - Spurs
Pacers - Knicks
Bulls - Nets

2012
76ers - Bulls
Clippers - Grizzlies
Lakers - Nuggets

2011
Hawks - Magic

2010
Lakers - Thunder
Spurs - Mavs
Jazz - Nuggets

2009
Hawks - Heat

2008
Celtics - Pistons
Celtics - Cavs
Pistons - Magic (one of only two series that only went 5)
Spurs - Hornets
Spurs - Suns

2007
Cavs - Nets
Spurs - Suns

2006
Heat - Mavs
Suns - Clips
Cavs - Wizards

2005
Spurs - Pistons
Pacers - Celtics
Wizards - Bulls

2004
Timberwolves - Kings
Kings - Mavericks (the other 5 game series)

4 out of 10 champions were lucky to win the Finals (one of which was lucky to even get there), 2 more champions were lucky to even reach the Finals. Everyone knows the 2007 Cavs were a miracle to reach the Finals, but in retrospect it was the Nets series that was luckier than the Pistons series: aggregate 10 points instead of 22 over the same 6 games, 2-0 in close games instead of 2-2. Obviously it's a lot easier to remember the greatest playoff clutch performance of the last 10 years in Game 5 of the ECF, but if we're looking at a whole series we should probably keep in mind Jason Kidd's 15 point, 12 rebound, 9 assist per game line, or that he led the Nets in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks... at 33 years old. Not too shabby.

I also think it's really interesting to see two times when a team was lucky in one series and unlucky in another in the same year (2004 Kings, 2008 Pistons) or all the catastrophic legacy implications: 2008 alone is an incredible case study. What happens to the historical standing of Garnett and Pierce if they don't get lucky twice? What happens to Chris Paul if he follows up an MVP season by facing off with illegitimate usurper MVP Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, and besting them? What do we think of Chauncey if he leads the creaking Pistons to another Finals berth, and then another ring?

2010 also: Kobe only gets one ring sans Shaq, as well as not becoming one of the nine teams to repeat as champion. It's not at all clear who would end up champion: the Thunder and Jazz are a question mark, same for the Suns against either, same for the Celtics against any.

Tim Duncan goes down two rings, does he stick around until 2013 to recoup one? What happens to Tony Parker without a FMVP?

LeBron James gets to the same number of Finals with the Cavs, but is 1-1 against the superteam Celtics instead of 0-2. Does he still follow through on the plan to make a superteam of his own? Does only getting one ring (and reducing the repeat champion club down to 7) result in the Heat imploding?

[Latrinsorm]

I finished the analysis out to 1984, which was the first year of 16 playoff teams and 4 rounds. This conveniently gives us 30 years: 298 series decided best of 7, 152 decided best of 5.


Best of 7
Mg n W L Pct
2 58 35 23 60.3%
4 55 50 5 90.9%
inf 179 178 1 99.4%
tie - 6 series

Best of 5
Mg n W L Pct
2 29 20 9 69.0%
4 26 24 2 92.3%
inf 96 96 0 100.0%
tie - 1 series

Where "Mg" is the points per game the series was decided by (or less). 2 doesn't quite mirror a standard deviation, but it's convenient. The only series where the winner was more than 4 points per game behind was the 1990 Western Conference Finals: Blazers over Suns in 6 by -34 points. As you can see the best of 5 series are more correlated with margin of victory, although obviously not to a statistically significant degree. In any event, whatever effect the different series length has is small, so for neatness we can combine the two and extend the margin slightly...


Mg n W L Pct
2.5 102 67 35 65.7%
5 110 106 4 96.4%
inf 231 230 1 99.6%
ties - 7 series

Nice! Another neat consequence of this is how the champions shake out: 13 never got lucky, 13 had one lucky series, 4 had two. Symmetry! They are:


none
2012 Miami Heat
2009 Los Angeles Lakers
2003 San Antonio Spurs
2001 Los Angeles Lakers
1999 San Antonio Spurs
1998 Chicago Bulls
1996 Chicago Bulls
1991 Chicago Bulls
1990 Detroit Pistons
1989 Detroit Pistons
1987 Los Angeles Lakers
1986 Boston Celtics
1985 Los Angeles Lakers

one
2013 Miami Heat
2011 Dallas Mavericks
2010 Los Angeles Lakers
2007 San Antonio Spurs
2006 Miami Heat
2005 San Antonio Spurs
2004 Detroit Pistons
2002 Los Angeles Lakers
1997 Chicago Bulls
1994 Houston Rockets
1993 Chicago Bulls
1992 Chicago Bulls
1984 Boston Celtics

two
2008 Boston Celtics
2000 Los Angeles Lakers
1995 Houston Rockets
1988 Los Angeles Lakers
It is really interesting to me how some of the most dominant regular season teams (08 Celtics, 97 Bulls) were much less so in the playoffs, and also various luck/ring ratios: Hakeem 1.5, Shaq 1.0, Jordan 0.5, LeBron 0.5, Duncan 0.5, Isiah 0.0. The only champions to win every series by at least 5 points per game were the 1986 Celtics, 1991 Bulls, and 2001 Lakers.

Another thing we can do is look at not just how often a champion's series margin crossed the luck barrier, but their overall margins within each luck stratum. I have thought a lot about how to do this: suppose Team A ties its first round series, then blows out the semis, conference finals, and Finals; suppose Team B blows out the first three series and ties the Finals. How do we say which is better? A great team shouldn't struggle in the first round, but blowing out a team in the Finals is the hallmark of a great team. In the end I decided to just sum the margin for every game and divide by the total games played, and that looks like this:


12.75 2001 Los Angeles Lakers
11.71 1991 Chicago Bulls
11.39 1987 Los Angeles Lakers
10.56 1996 Chicago Bulls
10.33 1986 Boston Celtics
10.16 1985 Los Angeles Lakers
7.71 1989 Detroit Pistons
7.24 1999 San Antonio Spurs
7.22 2009 Los Angeles Lakers
7.09 2012 Miami Heat
7.00 1998 Chicago Bulls
7.00 1990 Detroit Pistons
5.50 2003 San Antonio Spurs

6.43 2013 Miami Heat
6.39 2004 Detroit Pistons
6.18 1992 Chicago Bulls
5.84 1993 Chicago Bulls
5.76 2011 Dallas Mavericks
5.53 1997 Chicago Bulls
4.35 2005 San Antonio Spurs
4.17 1984 Boston Celtics
3.95 2007 San Antonio Spurs
3.83 2010 Los Angeles Lakers
3.79 2002 Los Angeles Lakers
3.78 2006 Miami Heat
3.13 1994 Houston Rockets

5.23 2008 Boston Celtics
2.77 1995 Houston Rockets
2.54 1988 Los Angeles Lakers
2.35 2000 Los Angeles Lakers
It's implied arithmetically but I'm still glad that the overall margins are separated out quite neatly by luck strata. We can also look at repeat champions in this era:


Mg Luck Team
7.69 2 91-93 Bulls
7.62 1 96-98 Bulls
7.32 0 89-90 Pistons
6.76 1 12-13 Heat
6.33 2 87-88 Lakers
5.69 3 00-02 Lakers
5.52 1 09-10 Lakers
It's pretty crazy how the 2001 Lakers were easily the laziest regular season team in the past 30 years, then the most dominant postseason team, the 2000 Lakers were the shakiest postseason team, the 2002 Lakers weren't much better. It's a lot less crazy how the Bulls whip everyone's behind, although I would guess that most people remember less luck than turned out to be there.

.

Full data. Series are numbered by their order of appearance on basketball-reference.com, thus the best of 5 series are 1984-2002 #s 8-15.


Year Series Games Pts Close W Close L
2013 1 7 -5 1 1
2013 2 7 28 1 1
2013 3 4 44 1 0
2013 4 6 0 0 0
2013 5 5 66 1 0
2013 6 5 20 1 1
2013 7 6 23 1 0
2013 8 7 -14 1 1
2013 9 6 31 0 0
2013 10 4 59 0 0
2013 11 6 32 0 0
2013 12 6 25 2 1
2013 13 6 33 0 1
2013 14 6 35 2 1
2013 15 4 75 0 0
2012 1 5 20 1 0
2012 2 7 34 1 2
2012 3 6 27 1 1
2012 4 7 26 1 1
2012 5 6 39 0 1
2012 6 5 47 2 1
2012 7 4 46 1 0
2012 8 6 28 1 1
2012 9 5 54 1 1
2012 10 5 70 0 1
2012 11 6 10 2 0
2012 12 7 -5 3 1
2012 13 7 -3 2 1
2012 14 4 26 2 0
2012 15 4 64 0 0
2011 1 6 14 2 1
2011 2 5 11 1 0
2011 3 5 20 1 0
2011 4 6 42 0 0
2011 5 5 22 0 0
2011 6 4 56 1 0
2011 7 7 28 0 0
2011 8 6 -11 3 0
2011 9 4 34 2 0
2011 10 5 37 2 1
2011 11 5 37 0 1
2011 12 6 31 0 2
2011 13 6 43 0 1
2011 14 6 19 2 0
2011 15 5 24 3 1
2010 1 7 24 1 0
2010 2 6 17 2 1
2010 3 6 25 1 0
2010 4 6 32 0 0
2010 5 4 101 0 0
2010 6 4 29 2 0
2010 7 4 37 0 0
2010 8 7 26 0 1
2010 9 5 41 1 0
2010 10 5 46 1 1
2010 11 4 37 1 0
2010 12 6 10 2 1
2010 13 6 62 0 1
2010 14 6 3 2 0
2010 15 6 7 1 0
2009 1 5 47 1 1
2009 2 6 15 2 1
2009 3 6 22 1 1
2009 4 4 72 0 0
2009 5 7 30 1 2
2009 6 5 39 1 1
2009 7 7 51 0 0
2009 8 7 -6 0 0
2009 9 7 30 2 3
2009 10 4 62 0 0
2009 11 6 46 1 2
2009 12 5 30 0 0
2009 13 5 121 0 1
2009 14 6 32 2 1
2009 15 5 46 0 1
2008 1 6 50 0 1
2008 2 6 10 1 0
2008 3 5 25 2 0
2008 4 7 -8 2 1
2008 5 5 7 1 0
2008 6 6 18 1 1
2008 7 7 0 0 0
2008 8 7 84 0 2
2008 9 6 20 1 1
2008 10 6 42 0 1
2008 11 5 23 1 0
2008 12 4 53 0 0
2008 13 5 44 1 0
2008 14 5 10 1 0
2008 15 6 15 1 1
2007 1 4 24 2 0
2007 2 6 22 2 2
2007 3 5 28 0 0
2007 4 6 10 2 0
2007 5 6 33 0 0
2007 6 6 -3 2 0
2007 7 5 21 1 0
2007 8 4 44 1 0
2007 9 4 35 0 0
2007 10 4 36 1 0
2007 11 6 32 2 1
2007 12 6 40 1 0
2007 13 5 52 0 0
2007 14 5 30 1 0
2007 15 7 22 1 1
2006 1 6 6 3 0
2006 2 6 31 1 1
2006 3 6 16 0 1
2006 4 7 40 1 2
2006 5 5 32 1 0
2006 6 7 28 2 3
2006 7 7 -7 1 0
2006 8 6 -1 3 1
2006 9 5 48 0 0
2006 10 6 18 1 0
2006 11 6 22 0 1
2006 12 4 56 1 0
2006 13 5 38 1 0
2006 14 7 47 1 1
2006 15 6 57 0 1
2005 1 7 -13 1 0
2005 2 7 23 0 0
2005 3 5 21 1 1
2005 4 6 42 0 1
2005 5 4 36 1 0
2005 6 6 40 1 1
2005 7 6 41 1 1
2005 8 5 40 1 0
2005 9 7 4 2 1
2005 10 4 51 1 0
2005 11 6 11 2 0
2005 12 7 19 3 1
2005 13 4 44 1 0
2005 14 5 51 0 0
2005 15 5 22 2 0
2004 1 5 45 0 0
2004 2 6 15 2 1
2004 3 6 13 0 1
2004 4 7 24 0 0
2004 5 6 19 1 0
2004 6 6 25 1 0
2004 7 7 -8 3 0
2004 8 5 63 0 1
2004 9 4 67 0 0
2004 10 7 21 2 0
2004 11 4 51 1 0
2004 12 5 27 2 0
2004 13 5 20 1 0
2004 14 5 -7 3 0
2004 15 4 56 1 0
2003 1 6 35 1 2
2003 2 4 36 2 0
2003 3 6 30 0 1
2003 4 6 0 2 0
2003 5 4 40 1 0
2003 6 7 25 1 0
2003 7 6 35 2 1
2003 8 6 34 1 1
2003 9 7 51 0 1
2003 10 6 26 1 2
2003 11 6 10 2 1
2003 12 7 -7 1 1
2003 13 6 38 1 1
2003 14 5 53 0 1
2003 15 6 32 1 2
2002 1 4 37 2 0
2002 2 6 17 1 1
2002 3 7 -2 2 1
2002 4 5 18 1 0
2002 5 5 20 0 0
2002 6 5 21 1 1
2002 7 5 30 1 0
2002 8 5 44 0 2
2002 9 4 20 1 0
2002 10 5 14 2 0
2002 11 5 -1 1 0
2002 12 3 32 0 0
2002 13 3 16 1 0
2002 14 4 4 3 0
2002 15 5 51 0 0
2001 1 5 34 1 0
2001 2 7 2 1 0
2001 3 4 89 0 0
2001 4 7 4 1 0
2001 5 7 5 3 1
2001 6 4 37 1 0
2001 7 5 58 0 0
2001 8 3 67 0 0
2001 9 4 23 0 1
2001 10 4 25 2 1
2001 11 5 16 1 0
2001 12 5 21 2 1
2001 13 3 44 0 0
2001 14 4 38 0 1
2001 15 4 26 1 0
2000 1 6 -11 2 0
2000 2 6 35 1 2
2000 3 7 -13 2 0
2000 4 6 24 0 1
2000 5 7 6 2 2
2000 6 5 38 1 0
2000 7 5 55 1 1
2000 8 5 -9 2 0
2000 9 3 31 1 0
2000 10 3 12 2 0
2000 11 4 11 1 0
2000 12 5 40 0 0
2000 13 4 5 1 0
2000 14 4 8 2 0
2000 15 5 6 1 0
1999 1 5 25 1 0
1999 2 6 5 2 1
1999 3 4 41 2 0
1999 4 4 21 3 0
1999 5 4 40 0 0
1999 6 6 4 1 0
1999 7 4 32 1 0
1999 8 5 15 0 0
1999 9 3 31 1 0
1999 10 5 20 1 0
1999 11 4 25 0 0
1999 12 4 9 1 0
1999 13 3 31 0 0
1999 14 4 25 0 0
1999 15 5 24 1 1
1998 1 6 47 3 2
1998 2 7 29 1 3
1998 3 4 54 2 0
1998 4 5 48 0 1
1998 5 5 33 0 0
1998 6 5 53 0 0
1998 7 5 1 2 0
1998 8 4 -6 0 0
1998 9 3 23 2 0
1998 10 4 32 0 0
1998 11 5 11 1 0
1998 12 4 17 1 1
1998 13 4 30 0 0
1998 14 5 29 1 1
1998 15 5 34 0 1
1997 1 6 4 3 1
1997 2 5 44 0 0
1997 3 6 14 2 1
1997 4 5 39 1 0
1997 5 7 9 2 1
1997 6 7 9 3 2
1997 7 5 18 2 0
1997 8 5 10 1 0
1997 9 3 18 2 0
1997 10 5 39 0 0
1997 11 3 26 0 0
1997 12 3 34 1 0
1997 13 4 28 1 0
1997 14 5 63 0 1
1997 15 3 38 0 0
1996 1 6 23 1 0
1996 2 4 67 2 0
1996 3 7 -18 3 1
1996 4 5 31 1 1
1996 5 5 48 0 1
1996 6 4 47 2 0
1996 7 6 70 0 0
1996 8 5 5 1 0
1996 9 3 69 0 0
1996 10 3 32 2 0
1996 11 3 38 1 0
1996 12 4 8 1 0
1996 13 4 44 1 1
1996 14 4 24 0 0
1996 15 5 50 0 1
1995 1 4 28 2 0
1995 2 7 2 3 2
1995 3 6 10 2 1
1995 4 7 -10 3 1
1995 5 6 5 1 0
1995 6 7 3 1 1
1995 7 6 35 0 1
1995 8 4 10 1 0
1995 9 3 32 0 0
1995 10 4 33 1 0
1995 11 4 48 2 0
1995 12 5 20 1 1
1995 13 4 -15 3 0
1995 14 3 44 0 0
1995 15 3 46 1 0
1994 1 7 -5 2 0
1994 2 7 0 1 0
1994 3 5 21 2 0
1994 4 6 30 0 0
1994 5 7 -8 3 1
1994 6 7 35 0 1
1994 7 7 19 1 2
1994 8 5 34 0 2
1994 9 3 20 1 0
1994 10 3 16 2 0
1994 11 4 29 0 1
1994 12 5 -4 1 0
1994 13 4 21 1 1
1994 14 3 20 0 0
1994 15 4 33 1 0
1993 1 6 0 2 0
1993 2 6 28 1 1
1993 3 7 1 0 1
1993 4 4 34 1 0
1993 5 5 22 3 1
1993 6 6 0 1 0
1993 7 7 6 1 0
1993 8 4 21 2 0
1993 9 3 49 0 0
1993 10 5 16 0 1
1993 11 4 -1 1 0
1993 12 5 24 1 1
1993 13 5 19 1 2
1993 14 4 1 2 0
1993 15 5 21 0 1
1992 1 6 44 1 1
1992 2 6 11 1 0
1992 3 6 39 0 0
1992 4 7 27 0 1
1992 5 7 21 1 1
1992 6 5 16 2 0
1992 7 5 25 0 0
1992 8 3 22 1 0
1992 9 3 54 1 0
1992 10 4 33 0 1
1992 11 5 39 1 2
1992 12 3 27 0 0
1992 13 4 59 0 1
1992 14 4 -2 2 0
1992 15 5 20 0 0
1991 1 5 49 0 1
1991 2 4 46 0 0
1991 3 6 19 2 0
1991 4 5 44 1 1
1991 5 6 -11 2 0
1991 6 5 33 2 1
1991 7 5 26 2 0
1991 8 5 2 1 1
1991 9 3 60 0 0
1991 10 5 40 0 1
1991 11 3 34 1 0
1991 12 4 20 1 0
1991 13 3 17 2 0
1991 14 5 14 0 1
1991 15 4 46 0 0
1990 1 5 25 2 1
1990 2 7 21 0 1
1990 3 6 -34 3 0
1990 4 5 38 1 0
1990 5 5 57 0 0
1990 6 5 8 2 0
1990 7 7 -16 1 0
1990 8 4 38 0 0
1990 9 3 37 0 0
1990 10 5 -3 1 0
1990 11 5 -12 0 0
1990 12 4 31 1 0
1990 13 5 7 1 0
1990 14 3 28 0 0
1990 15 3 36 0 0
1989 1 4 27 2 0
1989 2 6 25 0 1
1989 3 4 22 2 0
1989 4 6 25 1 0
1989 5 4 47 2 0
1989 6 4 40 2 0
1989 7 5 79 0 1
1989 8 5 4 1 1
1989 9 3 32 0 0
1989 10 5 3 2 0
1989 11 3 8 2 0
1989 12 3 26 1 0
1989 13 3 36 0 0
1989 14 3 28 1 0
1989 15 4 -1 2 0
1988 1 7 -18 2 0
1988 2 6 18 2 2
1988 3 7 41 0 1
1988 4 7 -11 2 0
1988 5 5 49 0 0
1988 6 6 29 2 1
1988 7 7 6 1 1
1988 8 5 6 1 0
1988 9 4 45 0 0
1988 10 5 8 1 0
1988 11 5 20 1 1
1988 12 4 10 1 0
1988 13 5 3 1 0
1988 14 3 32 1 0
1988 15 4 17 1 0
1987 1 6 25 1 0
1987 2 7 -26 2 0
1987 3 4 45 2 0
1987 4 7 2 2 2
1987 5 5 6 2 0
1987 6 5 53 0 0
1987 7 6 2 3 1
1987 8 4 12 2 0
1987 9 3 24 1 0
1987 10 3 58 1 0
1987 11 5 8 2 1
1987 12 5 7 2 1
1987 13 4 18 0 0
1987 14 3 82 0 0
1987 15 4 16 1 0
1986 1 6 37 1 1
1986 2 4 60 1 0
1986 3 5 18 1 0
1986 4 5 48 1 0
1986 5 7 -5 3 1
1986 6 6 53 1 2
1986 7 6 30 2 2
1986 8 4 22 1 0
1986 9 3 41 1 0
1986 10 3 31 1 0
1986 11 5 29 2 2
1986 12 4 17 1 1
1986 13 4 20 1 1
1986 14 3 43 0 0
1986 15 3 95 0 0
1985 1 6 16 0 1
1985 2 5 25 1 0
1985 3 5 61 1 0
1985 4 6 47 0 1
1985 5 4 40 2 0
1985 6 5 36 0 0
1985 7 5 55 1 0
1985 8 4 0 3 0
1985 9 3 31 1 0
1985 10 4 22 0 1
1985 11 4 16 0 0
1985 12 5 53 1 2
1985 13 3 61 0 0
1985 14 4 10 2 0
1985 15 5 1 0 1
1984 1 7 -16 2 0
1984 2 5 45 0 0
1984 3 6 32 1 1
1984 4 7 56 0 2
1984 5 6 11 2 0
1984 6 5 72 0 0
1984 7 6 16 2 0
1984 8 4 11 2 1
1984 9 5 29 0 1
1984 10 5 16 1 0
1984 11 5 -3 2 0
1984 12 5 1 2 1
1984 13 3 24 0 0
1984 14 5 13 1 1
1984 15 5 3 2 1