Latrinsorm
03-02-2014, 01:56 PM
Serge Ibaka looks like a pretty good player. Good FG% and scoring volume, horrible passer but he's a PF so that's not as big a deal, his advanced stats put him at about 35th in the league and he looks very good defensively so probably a top 25 player.
One odd wrinkle, however, is that the Thunder have been better with him on the bench for his first four seasons and this one so far. So I decided to look into it, and in those first four seasons there were 62 players who played at least 70 games or 2000 MP in every season (prorated for the lockout year). Of these, only three had negative values for the length of the sample: Arron Afflalo, Dorell Wright, Serge Ibaka. It's odd, and it's not just because of youth, because Ibaka is the only one who was a rookie in 2010.
If we add the values for each year directly (which is not strictly accurate because they should be weighted by possessions), the best ends up being LeBron at +55.1 and the worst is Brandon Jennings at -23.2, both of which sound pretty good. The rest of the list gets pretty hinky, though:
55.1 LeBron James
43.5 Nick Collison
43.2 Mike Conley
40.8 Kevin Garnett
40.4 LaMarcus Aldridge
39.2 Dwyane Wade
36.3 Amir Johnson
32.1 Paul Pierce
31.8 Vince Carter
31.1 Marc Gasol
30.0 Dwight Howard
27.6 Chris Bosh
27.3 Josh Smith
26.3 Thaddeus Young
25.0 Kevin Durant
24.7 Kobe Bryant
24.5 Joe Johnson
24.5 Paul Millsap
22.7 Roy Hibbert
21.8 Tim Duncan
21.8 Gerald Wallace
21.0 Metta World Peace
20.8 Andre Miller
17.7 David West
16.8 Jared Dudley
15.4 Mario Chalmers
15.3 Rodney Stuckey
14.8 Deron Williams
14.7 Raymond Felton
13.4 Rudy Gay
13.1 Wesley Matthews
13.0 Andre Iguodala
10.8 James Harden
9.2 Elton Brand
8.5 Jrue Holiday
8.3 Jason Thompson
8.2 Luol Deng
7.0 Luis Scola
6.7 DeAndre Jordan
5.4 Carmelo Anthony
3.7 David Lee
2.6 Shane Battier
0.9 Jason Terry
0.6 Russell Westbrook
-0.4 Courtney Lee
-2.3 Luke Ridnour
-2.7 Goran Dragic
-3.5 Jamal Crawford
-3.9 Jeff Teague
-5.0 Boris Diaw
-6.3 Marcus Thornton
-6.9 Serge Ibaka
-7.3 Al Jefferson
-7.9 Tyreke Evans
-8.5 DeMar DeRozan
-9.2 O.J. Mayo
-9.6 Dorell Wright
-10.5 Arron Afflalo
-11.2 Darren Collison
-14.0 Monta Ellis
-14.7 Shawn Marion
-23.2 Brandon Jennings
Nick Collison, OKC superstar! So even using on/off rather than simple ± we probably have a lot of teammate effects still involved here, and it's plausible that Perkins is an anchor that's dragging down every other OKC starter (Durant 15th, Westbrook 44th, Serge 52nd). At the same time, Amir Johnson and DeMar DeRozan have been on the same team for all 4 years and while Amir has been in and out of the starting lineup he has accumulated 140 starts over a 4 year period, which isn't nothing, and this year Amir is still +4.3 over DeRozan with both starting. Similar story with Jeff Teague and Josh Smith.
So far this year we're on track to get down to 52 players, and it'll be interesting to see what movement there is. Unfortunately the play by play data only goes back to 2001 so we can't look at 1987-1993, for example. The best sample I can think of is 2001-2007, the closest we can get to an accounting of the Tim Duncan era, and those 26 players look like this (scaled by 4/7 to use the same scale as above):
51.1 Kevin Garnett
50.1 Dirk Nowitzki
46.6 Tim Duncan
37.5 Jason Kidd
30.7 Rasheed Wallace
27.1 Steve Nash
25.0 Kobe Bryant
22.7 Shawn Marion
21.2 Ray Allen
20.2 Ben Wallace
20.1 Elton Brand
20.0 Jason Terry
18.7 Andre Miller
16.2 Allen Iverson
14.9 Chauncey Billups
13.5 Antawn Jamison
13.2 Rashard Lewis
12.3 Cuttino Mobley
12.2 Richard Hamilton
11.0 P.J. Brown
10.7 Ruben Patterson
8.6 Rasho Nesterovic
5.2 Stephon Marbury
5.1 Michael Finley
-3.3 Desmond Mason
-4.5 Antoine Walker
Seems pretty good to me. I talk up Chauncey a lot but he was a late bloomer and this sample includes his budding phase. It's interesting that there are way less players in the red and not near as deep, but that's probably just an indication that players get better (Dragic, Ibaka, Monta) or stop playing (OJ, hard to imagine Diaw or Marion still kicking around 3 years from now).
One odd wrinkle, however, is that the Thunder have been better with him on the bench for his first four seasons and this one so far. So I decided to look into it, and in those first four seasons there were 62 players who played at least 70 games or 2000 MP in every season (prorated for the lockout year). Of these, only three had negative values for the length of the sample: Arron Afflalo, Dorell Wright, Serge Ibaka. It's odd, and it's not just because of youth, because Ibaka is the only one who was a rookie in 2010.
If we add the values for each year directly (which is not strictly accurate because they should be weighted by possessions), the best ends up being LeBron at +55.1 and the worst is Brandon Jennings at -23.2, both of which sound pretty good. The rest of the list gets pretty hinky, though:
55.1 LeBron James
43.5 Nick Collison
43.2 Mike Conley
40.8 Kevin Garnett
40.4 LaMarcus Aldridge
39.2 Dwyane Wade
36.3 Amir Johnson
32.1 Paul Pierce
31.8 Vince Carter
31.1 Marc Gasol
30.0 Dwight Howard
27.6 Chris Bosh
27.3 Josh Smith
26.3 Thaddeus Young
25.0 Kevin Durant
24.7 Kobe Bryant
24.5 Joe Johnson
24.5 Paul Millsap
22.7 Roy Hibbert
21.8 Tim Duncan
21.8 Gerald Wallace
21.0 Metta World Peace
20.8 Andre Miller
17.7 David West
16.8 Jared Dudley
15.4 Mario Chalmers
15.3 Rodney Stuckey
14.8 Deron Williams
14.7 Raymond Felton
13.4 Rudy Gay
13.1 Wesley Matthews
13.0 Andre Iguodala
10.8 James Harden
9.2 Elton Brand
8.5 Jrue Holiday
8.3 Jason Thompson
8.2 Luol Deng
7.0 Luis Scola
6.7 DeAndre Jordan
5.4 Carmelo Anthony
3.7 David Lee
2.6 Shane Battier
0.9 Jason Terry
0.6 Russell Westbrook
-0.4 Courtney Lee
-2.3 Luke Ridnour
-2.7 Goran Dragic
-3.5 Jamal Crawford
-3.9 Jeff Teague
-5.0 Boris Diaw
-6.3 Marcus Thornton
-6.9 Serge Ibaka
-7.3 Al Jefferson
-7.9 Tyreke Evans
-8.5 DeMar DeRozan
-9.2 O.J. Mayo
-9.6 Dorell Wright
-10.5 Arron Afflalo
-11.2 Darren Collison
-14.0 Monta Ellis
-14.7 Shawn Marion
-23.2 Brandon Jennings
Nick Collison, OKC superstar! So even using on/off rather than simple ± we probably have a lot of teammate effects still involved here, and it's plausible that Perkins is an anchor that's dragging down every other OKC starter (Durant 15th, Westbrook 44th, Serge 52nd). At the same time, Amir Johnson and DeMar DeRozan have been on the same team for all 4 years and while Amir has been in and out of the starting lineup he has accumulated 140 starts over a 4 year period, which isn't nothing, and this year Amir is still +4.3 over DeRozan with both starting. Similar story with Jeff Teague and Josh Smith.
So far this year we're on track to get down to 52 players, and it'll be interesting to see what movement there is. Unfortunately the play by play data only goes back to 2001 so we can't look at 1987-1993, for example. The best sample I can think of is 2001-2007, the closest we can get to an accounting of the Tim Duncan era, and those 26 players look like this (scaled by 4/7 to use the same scale as above):
51.1 Kevin Garnett
50.1 Dirk Nowitzki
46.6 Tim Duncan
37.5 Jason Kidd
30.7 Rasheed Wallace
27.1 Steve Nash
25.0 Kobe Bryant
22.7 Shawn Marion
21.2 Ray Allen
20.2 Ben Wallace
20.1 Elton Brand
20.0 Jason Terry
18.7 Andre Miller
16.2 Allen Iverson
14.9 Chauncey Billups
13.5 Antawn Jamison
13.2 Rashard Lewis
12.3 Cuttino Mobley
12.2 Richard Hamilton
11.0 P.J. Brown
10.7 Ruben Patterson
8.6 Rasho Nesterovic
5.2 Stephon Marbury
5.1 Michael Finley
-3.3 Desmond Mason
-4.5 Antoine Walker
Seems pretty good to me. I talk up Chauncey a lot but he was a late bloomer and this sample includes his budding phase. It's interesting that there are way less players in the red and not near as deep, but that's probably just an indication that players get better (Dragic, Ibaka, Monta) or stop playing (OJ, hard to imagine Diaw or Marion still kicking around 3 years from now).