NBA and Winning 70 Games

[Latrinsorm]

Have the best player of all time, the best offense in the NBA, the best defense in the NBA, and an unsustainable 12-4 record in close games, duh.

But in general, how does early season record correlate with season ending record? Here's the raw data for wins through 10, 20, ... 70, 82 games played for teams from 13, 11, 10, 09, and 08:


4 10 16 24 32 38 48 57 Denver Nuggets*
4 9 16 21 27 32 39 45 Houston Rockets*
7 16 24 32 38 44 51 60 Oklahoma City Thunder*
8 16 22 29 39 46 53 58 San Antonio Spurs*
7 14 22 28 36 46 56 66 Miami Heat*
5 9 15 17 23 30 36 45 Los Angeles Lakers*
5 13 20 25 30 33 39 47 Golden State Warriors*
5 10 12 17 22 27 34 41 Dallas Mavericks
8 14 24 31 34 42 48 56 Los Angeles Clippers*
2 7 11 15 17 20 25 28 Sacramento Kings
8 15 21 26 32 38 44 54 New York Knicks*
6 11 16 22 25 31 34 38 Milwaukee Bucks*
4 10 15 21 28 32 34 43 Utah Jazz
6 14 20 22 28 34 39 44 Atlanta Hawks*
5 8 16 20 25 28 33 33 Portland Trail Blazers
3 4 10 14 18 23 26 34 Toronto Raptors
6 11 16 24 29 34 41 49 Brooklyn Nets*
6 11 14 20 27 33 36 41 Boston Celtics*
2 4 7 9 16 20 22 24 Cleveland Cavaliers
5 11 15 17 19 21 25 31 Minnesota Timberwolves
4 7 11 13 17 21 23 25 Phoenix Suns
1 6 9 15 18 23 23 29 Detroit Pistons
4 10 17 24 31 38 43 49 Indiana Pacers*
3 5 7 13 17 21 24 27 New Orleans Hornets
3 8 12 14 14 16 18 20 Orlando Magic
6 7 7 10 11 13 16 21 Charlotte Bobcats
8 14 20 26 32 41 47 56 Memphis Grizzlies*
6 11 14 17 22 23 27 34 Philadelphia 76ers
5 11 17 24 30 34 39 45 Chicago Bulls*
0 3 4 9 15 19 26 29 Washington Wizards

5 13 17 23 29 34 41 50 Denver Nuggets*
3 11 18 22 26 31 35 42 New York Knicks*
3 7 15 17 22 29 36 43 Houston Rockets
6 11 13 19 25 32 36 40 Phoenix Suns
6 13 20 27 33 38 46 55 Oklahoma City Thunder*
9 17 26 34 42 49 57 61 San Antonio Spurs*
6 8 12 17 22 27 30 36 Golden State Warriors
6 12 21 30 36 43 48 58 Miami Heat*
8 14 21 29 34 41 50 57 Los Angeles Lakers*
3 5 6 10 11 14 17 17 Minnesota Timberwolves
7 16 24 26 35 44 49 57 Dallas Mavericks*
4 8 13 19 26 33 38 46 Memphis Grizzlies*
5 10 13 16 22 27 30 37 Indiana Pacers*
3 5 6 9 12 15 18 24 Sacramento Kings
7 15 21 27 29 32 36 39 Utah Jazz
7 15 18 26 31 38 44 52 Orlando Magic*
2 8 10 13 13 16 20 22 Toronto Raptors
2 6 12 17 23 30 36 41 Philadelphia 76ers*
1 4 8 15 19 21 27 32 Los Angeles Clippers
6 12 20 27 34 42 51 62 Chicago Bulls*
3 6 8 12 13 15 17 23 Washington Wizards
4 6 10 14 18 21 25 30 Detroit Pistons
8 16 24 31 38 45 50 56 Boston Celtics*
6 9 15 20 26 33 40 48 Portland Trail Blazers*
5 7 8 8 8 11 13 19 Cleveland Cavaliers
6 13 18 26 32 36 40 44 Atlanta Hawks*
9 13 18 24 32 35 40 46 New Orleans Hornets*
4 6 9 10 15 17 23 24 New Jersey Nets
3 7 11 16 21 26 28 34 Charlotte Bobcats
5 7 12 16 20 23 28 35 Milwaukee Bucks

8 15 19 24 29 37 44 54 Phoenix Suns*
3 6 9 12 13 17 19 26 Golden State Warriors
7 15 20 26 34 39 47 53 Denver Nuggets*
4 12 17 23 32 38 45 53 Utah Jazz*
5 7 13 20 27 32 35 40 Toronto Raptors
7 16 22 26 33 40 49 59 Orlando Magic*
2 8 14 22 26 30 37 40 Memphis Grizzlies
6 11 18 22 27 30 36 42 Houston Rockets
7 15 22 30 39 46 55 61 Cleveland Cavaliers*
1 5 11 16 19 21 25 29 New York Knicks
7 14 21 26 31 39 46 55 Dallas Mavericks*
7 17 24 31 38 45 52 57 Los Angeles Lakers*
8 14 21 26 33 39 45 53 Atlanta Hawks*
5 11 16 22 29 36 43 50 Oklahoma City Thunder*
4 11 19 25 29 36 42 50 San Antonio Spurs*
5 7 9 14 18 20 24 32 Indiana Pacers
3 9 14 21 26 31 33 37 New Orleans Hornets
5 9 14 15 16 20 24 25 Sacramento Kings
8 16 23 27 32 39 45 50 Boston Celtics*
1 3 6 8 12 14 14 15 Minnesota Timberwolves
7 12 18 24 29 34 42 50 Portland Trail Blazers*
4 5 8 13 19 22 24 27 Philadelphia 76ers
7 9 12 17 23 31 39 46 Milwaukee Bucks*
6 7 13 18 25 31 33 41 Chicago Bulls*
7 11 16 21 24 29 36 47 Miami Heat*
3 7 10 14 17 21 21 26 Washington Wizards
3 9 13 18 21 25 26 29 Los Angeles Clippers
3 9 12 21 25 29 36 44 Charlotte Bobcats*
5 8 11 14 18 21 23 27 Detroit Pistons
0 1 2 3 4 6 7 12 New Jersey Nets

7 11 18 23 28 34 39 46 Phoenix Suns
4 5 8 11 16 21 25 29 Golden State Warriors
9 17 25 32 41 48 56 65 Los Angeles Lakers*
6 9 12 16 21 25 28 32 New York Knicks
5 7 10 15 19 25 28 36 Indiana Pacers
6 13 19 27 34 39 45 54 Denver Nuggets*
6 12 17 24 28 37 44 48 Utah Jazz*
5 9 13 18 22 27 32 41 Chicago Bulls*
3 11 18 23 30 36 42 50 Dallas Mavericks*
7 15 24 32 38 44 52 59 Orlando Magic*
8 18 27 31 41 47 52 62 Boston Celtics*
4 5 7 10 11 13 15 17 Sacramento Kings
8 17 26 32 39 48 57 66 Cleveland Cavaliers*
6 14 18 24 31 38 44 54 Portland Trail Blazers*
5 8 14 19 23 28 31 34 Milwaukee Bucks
5 8 12 16 19 23 25 33 Toronto Raptors
6 13 19 24 30 38 45 53 Houston Rockets*
5 11 17 22 27 32 38 43 Miami Heat*
4 11 15 19 23 27 30 34 New Jersey Nets
6 12 20 24 29 34 41 47 Atlanta Hawks*
2 4 6 13 17 18 20 24 Minnesota Timberwolves
5 9 12 20 26 30 37 41 Philadelphia 76ers*
1 2 3 7 12 15 20 23 Oklahoma City Thunder
5 12 20 27 35 40 46 54 San Antonio Spurs*
1 4 6 8 10 14 16 19 Washington Wizards
5 13 20 26 30 38 44 49 New Orleans Hornets*
1 4 8 9 11 15 17 19 Los Angeles Clippers
7 11 19 23 27 31 34 39 Detroit Pistons*
3 5 10 11 14 16 17 24 Memphis Grizzlies
3 7 11 16 19 25 31 35 Charlotte Bobcats

3 11 17 23 30 37 43 48 Golden State Warriors
7 12 18 24 31 36 42 50 Denver Nuggets*
8 16 21 28 35 40 47 55 Phoenix Suns*
7 12 19 27 33 42 48 57 Los Angeles Lakers*
7 13 16 22 32 38 45 54 Utah Jazz*
8 16 19 24 31 37 45 52 Orlando Magic*
4 10 15 18 20 24 29 36 Indiana Pacers
4 8 12 18 23 27 31 38 Sacramento Kings
8 13 20 28 35 41 49 56 New Orleans Hornets*
3 6 8 11 13 14 18 22 Memphis Grizzlies
9 18 27 33 41 48 55 66 Boston Celtics*
8 12 19 27 34 39 44 51 Dallas Mavericks*
5 10 16 22 27 33 35 41 Toronto Raptors*
5 10 15 22 24 29 36 43 Washington Wizards*
3 10 15 19 22 25 30 37 Atlanta Hawks*
6 14 23 29 37 44 50 59 Detroit Pistons*
2 5 9 9 13 16 16 20 Seattle SuperSonics
2 7 12 16 20 24 28 33 Chicago Bulls
6 8 11 16 18 21 25 32 Charlotte Bobcats
6 8 11 16 19 22 24 26 Milwaukee Bucks
2 6 8 13 14 18 19 23 New York Knicks
6 11 15 21 30 40 47 55 Houston Rockets*
3 7 13 15 20 27 35 40 Philadelphia 76ers*
5 9 14 22 28 34 40 45 Cleveland Cavaliers*
4 9 14 18 21 26 29 34 New Jersey Nets
1 3 4 6 10 12 18 22 Minnesota Timberwolves
8 17 21 27 33 43 47 56 San Antonio Spurs*
4 8 18 24 28 31 37 41 Portland Trail Blazers
6 8 10 13 17 20 21 23 Los Angeles Clippers
2 5 8 8 9 11 13 15 Miami Heat


And here's how the numbers shook out for the first 10 games from teams that won 0 to 9 games (no team in the sample started 10-0), listed in rows of [total wins] [number of teams] [average wins] [average winning %]:


41 188 270 682 678 1017 1136 1007 892 238
2 8 10 21 18 26 26 19 16 4
20.5 23.5 27.0 32.5 37.7 39.1 43.7 53.0 55.8 59.5
25.0% 28.7% 32.9% 39.6% 45.9% 47.7% 53.3% 64.6% 68.0% 72.6%
Note how while the records are very highly correlated (teams that win more early in the season on average end up winning more overall) they are also compressed towards 50%: teams that win 90% of the first 10 games only win 72.6% of the full 82, teams that win 0% end up winning 25%, and so on down the line. We can express that compression algebraically with the formula:

season winning % = .55 * first ten games winning % + .23

This has perilous implications for predicting a 70 game winner (or any other arbitrary threshold) after the first ten games. 70/82 is 85%, (.85-.23)/.55 = 113%, and it is exceedingly difficult to win 11 games out of 10 played.

.

We can do the same for 20 game samples for teams that win 1 through 18 games:


12 23 66 152 229 218 488 451 512 384 824 530 508 500 372 447 305 128
1 1 3 6 10 8 15 14 13 9 19 10 10 9 7 8 5 2
12.0 23.0 22.0 25.3 22.9 27.3 32.5 32.2 39.4 42.7 43.4 53.0 50.8 55.6 53.1 55.9 61.0 64.0
14.6% 28.0% 26.8% 30.9% 27.9% 33.2% 39.7% 39.3% 48.0% 52.0% 52.9% 64.6% 62.0% 67.8% 64.8% 68.1% 74.4% 78.0%
Again we have excellent correlation, and again we have significant compression. This time it works out to .70 * first 20 games % + .15, so we're getting warmer, but we still require 100% for first 20 games %.

Isn't this fun? I am going to collect more data before continuing so as to really nail down these coefficients, but I trust the theory is well-established. Wondering early in the season about 70 wins is nonsense.

[Ardwen]

Latrin my man you have way way too much free time

[Latrinsorm]

You'd be surprised how easy it is to do! basketball reference + vlookup (h/t as always to Stef) = half an hour to parse 150 team-seasons. If google chrome could handle multiple flash ads it would take 20 minutes maximum. Maximum!

[Latrinsorm]

Ok, here we go. Because I went all the way out to 70 game samples, it became clear that using every bin was not a good idea because lots had only 1 or 2 teams per bin, even after 10 years. Instead, I used that data starting with the first bin with 10+ samples and ending with the last. The results are as follows:


games a b
10 0.51 0.25
20 0.70 0.15
30 0.84 0.08
40 0.90 0.05
50 0.99 0.01
60 0.99 0.01
70 0.98 0.01

Is that beautiful or what? It's really interesting how quickly the sample gets to .99. Part of this may be because the sample selection process I used necessarily takes values closer to the mean, and it's reasonable that they would have less regression to the mean. Still, we certainly see that it's unreasonable to expect a team near the mean to diverge substantially. Going in reverse again, we can see when to start predicting a team will win 70 games:


games win% wins
10 118.4% 11.8
20 100.5% 20.1
30 92.1% 27.6
40 89.3% 35.7
50 85.2% 42.6
60 85.2% 51.1
70 86.1% 60.3


And as a reminder... what the only team to actually win 70 games went, and what they were on track to win based on each point:
9-1: 74
18-2: 74
27-3: 74
37-3: 76
45-5: 74
54-6: 74
62-8: 73

It is of course literally possible (in that it can be put into words) for a team to start start 30-12 and end 40-0, I'm just saying it's not a good bet.

.

DATA

Wins after 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 82 games.



4 10 16 24 32 38 48 57 Denver Nuggets* 2013
4 9 16 21 27 32 39 45 Houston Rockets*
7 16 24 32 38 44 51 60 Oklahoma City Thunder*
8 16 22 29 39 46 53 58 San Antonio Spurs*
7 14 22 28 36 46 56 66 Miami Heat*
5 9 15 17 23 30 36 45 Los Angeles Lakers*
5 13 20 25 30 33 39 47 Golden State Warriors*
5 10 12 17 22 27 34 41 Dallas Mavericks
8 14 24 31 34 42 48 56 Los Angeles Clippers*
2 7 11 15 17 20 25 28 Sacramento Kings
8 15 21 26 32 38 44 54 New York Knicks*
6 11 16 22 25 31 34 38 Milwaukee Bucks*
4 10 15 21 28 32 34 43 Utah Jazz
6 14 20 22 28 34 39 44 Atlanta Hawks*
5 8 16 20 25 28 33 33 Portland Trail Blazers
3 4 10 14 18 23 26 34 Toronto Raptors
6 11 16 24 29 34 41 49 Brooklyn Nets*
6 11 14 20 27 33 36 41 Boston Celtics*
2 4 7 9 16 20 22 24 Cleveland Cavaliers
5 11 15 17 19 21 25 31 Minnesota Timberwolves
4 7 11 13 17 21 23 25 Phoenix Suns
1 6 9 15 18 23 23 29 Detroit Pistons
4 10 17 24 31 38 43 49 Indiana Pacers*
3 5 7 13 17 21 24 27 New Orleans Hornets
3 8 12 14 14 16 18 20 Orlando Magic
6 7 7 10 11 13 16 21 Charlotte Bobcats
8 14 20 26 32 41 47 56 Memphis Grizzlies*
6 11 14 17 22 23 27 34 Philadelphia 76ers
5 11 17 24 30 34 39 45 Chicago Bulls*
0 3 4 9 15 19 26 29 Washington Wizards

5 13 17 23 29 34 41 50 Denver Nuggets* 2011
3 11 18 22 26 31 35 42 New York Knicks*
3 7 15 17 22 29 36 43 Houston Rockets
6 11 13 19 25 32 36 40 Phoenix Suns
6 13 20 27 33 38 46 55 Oklahoma City Thunder*
9 17 26 34 42 49 57 61 San Antonio Spurs*
6 8 12 17 22 27 30 36 Golden State Warriors
6 12 21 30 36 43 48 58 Miami Heat*
8 14 21 29 34 41 50 57 Los Angeles Lakers*
3 5 6 10 11 14 17 17 Minnesota Timberwolves
7 16 24 26 35 44 49 57 Dallas Mavericks*
4 8 13 19 26 33 38 46 Memphis Grizzlies*
5 10 13 16 22 27 30 37 Indiana Pacers*
3 5 6 9 12 15 18 24 Sacramento Kings
7 15 21 27 29 32 36 39 Utah Jazz
7 15 18 26 31 38 44 52 Orlando Magic*
2 8 10 13 13 16 20 22 Toronto Raptors
2 6 12 17 23 30 36 41 Philadelphia 76ers*
1 4 8 15 19 21 27 32 Los Angeles Clippers
6 12 20 27 34 42 51 62 Chicago Bulls*
3 6 8 12 13 15 17 23 Washington Wizards
4 6 10 14 18 21 25 30 Detroit Pistons
8 16 24 31 38 45 50 56 Boston Celtics*
6 9 15 20 26 33 40 48 Portland Trail Blazers*
5 7 8 8 8 11 13 19 Cleveland Cavaliers
6 13 18 26 32 36 40 44 Atlanta Hawks*
9 13 18 24 32 35 40 46 New Orleans Hornets*
4 6 9 10 15 17 23 24 New Jersey Nets
3 7 11 16 21 26 28 34 Charlotte Bobcats
5 7 12 16 20 23 28 35 Milwaukee Bucks

8 15 19 24 29 37 44 54 Phoenix Suns* 2010
3 6 9 12 13 17 19 26 Golden State Warriors
7 15 20 26 34 39 47 53 Denver Nuggets*
4 12 17 23 32 38 45 53 Utah Jazz*
5 7 13 20 27 32 35 40 Toronto Raptors
7 16 22 26 33 40 49 59 Orlando Magic*
2 8 14 22 26 30 37 40 Memphis Grizzlies
6 11 18 22 27 30 36 42 Houston Rockets
7 15 22 30 39 46 55 61 Cleveland Cavaliers*
1 5 11 16 19 21 25 29 New York Knicks
7 14 21 26 31 39 46 55 Dallas Mavericks*
7 17 24 31 38 45 52 57 Los Angeles Lakers*
8 14 21 26 33 39 45 53 Atlanta Hawks*
5 11 16 22 29 36 43 50 Oklahoma City Thunder*
4 11 19 25 29 36 42 50 San Antonio Spurs*
5 7 9 14 18 20 24 32 Indiana Pacers
3 9 14 21 26 31 33 37 New Orleans Hornets
5 9 14 15 16 20 24 25 Sacramento Kings
8 16 23 27 32 39 45 50 Boston Celtics*
1 3 6 8 12 14 14 15 Minnesota Timberwolves
7 12 18 24 29 34 42 50 Portland Trail Blazers*
4 5 8 13 19 22 24 27 Philadelphia 76ers
7 9 12 17 23 31 39 46 Milwaukee Bucks*
6 7 13 18 25 31 33 41 Chicago Bulls*
7 11 16 21 24 29 36 47 Miami Heat*
3 7 10 14 17 21 21 26 Washington Wizards
3 9 13 18 21 25 26 29 Los Angeles Clippers
3 9 12 21 25 29 36 44 Charlotte Bobcats*
5 8 11 14 18 21 23 27 Detroit Pistons
0 1 2 3 4 6 7 12 New Jersey Nets

7 11 18 23 28 34 39 46 Phoenix Suns 2009
4 5 8 11 16 21 25 29 Golden State Warriors
9 17 25 32 41 48 56 65 Los Angeles Lakers*
6 9 12 16 21 25 28 32 New York Knicks
5 7 10 15 19 25 28 36 Indiana Pacers
6 13 19 27 34 39 45 54 Denver Nuggets*
6 12 17 24 28 37 44 48 Utah Jazz*
5 9 13 18 22 27 32 41 Chicago Bulls*
3 11 18 23 30 36 42 50 Dallas Mavericks*
7 15 24 32 38 44 52 59 Orlando Magic*
8 18 27 31 41 47 52 62 Boston Celtics*
4 5 7 10 11 13 15 17 Sacramento Kings
8 17 26 32 39 48 57 66 Cleveland Cavaliers*
6 14 18 24 31 38 44 54 Portland Trail Blazers*
5 8 14 19 23 28 31 34 Milwaukee Bucks
5 8 12 16 19 23 25 33 Toronto Raptors
6 13 19 24 30 38 45 53 Houston Rockets*
5 11 17 22 27 32 38 43 Miami Heat*
4 11 15 19 23 27 30 34 New Jersey Nets
6 12 20 24 29 34 41 47 Atlanta Hawks*
2 4 6 13 17 18 20 24 Minnesota Timberwolves
5 9 12 20 26 30 37 41 Philadelphia 76ers*
1 2 3 7 12 15 20 23 Oklahoma City Thunder
5 12 20 27 35 40 46 54 San Antonio Spurs*
1 4 6 8 10 14 16 19 Washington Wizards
5 13 20 26 30 38 44 49 New Orleans Hornets*
1 4 8 9 11 15 17 19 Los Angeles Clippers
7 11 19 23 27 31 34 39 Detroit Pistons*
3 5 10 11 14 16 17 24 Memphis Grizzlies
3 7 11 16 19 25 31 35 Charlotte Bobcats

3 11 17 23 30 37 43 48 Golden State Warriors 2008
7 12 18 24 31 36 42 50 Denver Nuggets*
8 16 21 28 35 40 47 55 Phoenix Suns*
7 12 19 27 33 42 48 57 Los Angeles Lakers*
7 13 16 22 32 38 45 54 Utah Jazz*
8 16 19 24 31 37 45 52 Orlando Magic*
4 10 15 18 20 24 29 36 Indiana Pacers
4 8 12 18 23 27 31 38 Sacramento Kings
8 13 20 28 35 41 49 56 New Orleans Hornets*
3 6 8 11 13 14 18 22 Memphis Grizzlies
9 18 27 33 41 48 55 66 Boston Celtics*
8 12 19 27 34 39 44 51 Dallas Mavericks*
5 10 16 22 27 33 35 41 Toronto Raptors*
5 10 15 22 24 29 36 43 Washington Wizards*
3 10 15 19 22 25 30 37 Atlanta Hawks*
6 14 23 29 37 44 50 59 Detroit Pistons*
2 5 9 9 13 16 16 20 Seattle SuperSonics
2 7 12 16 20 24 28 33 Chicago Bulls
6 8 11 16 18 21 25 32 Charlotte Bobcats
6 8 11 16 19 22 24 26 Milwaukee Bucks
2 6 8 13 14 18 19 23 New York Knicks
6 11 15 21 30 40 47 55 Houston Rockets*
3 7 13 15 20 27 35 40 Philadelphia 76ers*
5 9 14 22 28 34 40 45 Cleveland Cavaliers*
4 9 14 18 21 26 29 34 New Jersey Nets
1 3 4 6 10 12 18 22 Minnesota Timberwolves
8 17 21 27 33 43 47 56 San Antonio Spurs*
4 8 18 24 28 31 37 41 Portland Trail Blazers
6 8 10 13 17 20 21 23 Los Angeles Clippers
2 5 8 8 9 11 13 15 Miami Heat

4 14 22 32 39 46 53 61 Phoenix Suns* 2007
7 10 15 19 23 26 33 42 Golden State Warriors*
6 12 16 22 26 29 35 45 Denver Nuggets*
4 9 17 24 29 34 38 41 Washington Wizards*
7 14 19 26 30 33 38 42 Los Angeles Lakers*
2 5 6 10 12 15 17 22 Memphis Grizzlies
9 15 21 26 33 41 46 51 Utah Jazz*
5 9 14 17 22 28 30 33 Sacramento Kings
6 14 23 32 41 51 59 67 Dallas Mavericks*
3 8 15 17 19 22 25 28 Milwaukee Bucks
2 7 13 19 27 32 38 47 Toronto Raptors*
4 9 12 15 18 25 28 31 Seattle SuperSonics
3 10 18 23 28 33 40 49 Chicago Bulls*
8 15 22 27 33 42 50 58 San Antonio Spurs*
5 8 12 20 23 28 32 41 New Jersey Nets*
4 7 12 17 22 27 30 33 New York Knicks
6 14 18 25 32 36 44 52 Houston Rockets*
2 5 9 14 18 22 26 33 Charlotte Bobcats
7 12 18 24 29 35 42 50 Cleveland Cavaliers*
4 10 15 20 23 27 30 32 Minnesota Timberwolves
5 13 19 24 32 38 45 53 Detroit Pistons*
4 7 11 12 12 17 21 24 Boston Celtics
5 10 16 20 26 29 31 35 Indiana Pacers
6 10 14 19 25 29 34 40 Los Angeles Clippers
7 10 12 16 23 28 32 39 New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
4 5 8 11 17 22 28 35 Philadelphia 76ers
7 14 17 22 25 28 32 40 Orlando Magic*
4 9 13 18 24 31 38 44 Miami Heat*
4 7 13 16 20 25 29 32 Portland Trail Blazers
5 8 9 14 20 22 27 30 Atlanta Hawks

5 13 19 26 33 42 47 54 Phoenix Suns* 2006
5 9 13 16 20 23 29 35 Seattle SuperSonics
5 9 12 19 26 30 37 42 Washington Wizards*
1 3 8 14 18 21 26 27 Toronto Raptors
5 11 14 21 26 32 40 44 Denver Nuggets*
6 10 17 23 30 40 47 52 Miami Heat*
6 9 15 20 24 30 32 38 Philadelphia 76ers
4 10 15 21 25 31 36 45 Los Angeles Lakers*
8 15 22 30 39 47 54 60 Dallas Mavericks*
4 8 12 17 22 29 35 44 Sacramento Kings*
6 12 16 19 23 25 30 34 Golden State Warriors
4 8 12 16 19 25 29 33 Boston Celtics
6 12 17 21 26 29 35 40 Milwaukee Bucks*
5 10 12 17 22 27 31 41 Chicago Bulls*
8 11 19 23 29 34 41 50 Cleveland Cavaliers*
1 4 8 11 16 20 22 26 Atlanta Hawks
8 14 17 24 30 35 41 47 Los Angeles Clippers*
3 5 10 11 14 16 19 26 Charlotte Bobcats
9 17 26 35 41 49 56 64 Detroit Pistons*
3 6 9 13 14 17 19 23 New York Knicks
8 16 23 31 40 47 54 63 San Antonio Spurs*
4 9 12 18 19 20 27 36 Orlando Magic
7 12 17 21 27 31 35 41 Indiana Pacers*
5 9 18 22 27 32 42 49 New Jersey Nets*
4 8 13 20 27 31 33 38 New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
4 8 14 20 25 29 33 41 Utah Jazz
7 13 20 24 27 33 41 49 Memphis Grizzlies*
5 12 15 19 22 26 29 33 Minnesota Timberwolves
3 8 12 14 20 27 30 34 Houston Rockets
4 6 10 14 18 19 20 21 Portland Trail Blazers

8 17 26 31 39 46 53 62 Phoenix Suns* 2005
6 14 20 28 32 36 43 50 Sacramento Kings*
8 13 20 27 34 39 47 58 Dallas Mavericks*
7 13 23 29 36 44 53 59 Miami Heat*
4 9 13 18 25 31 38 45 Boston Celtics*
6 12 17 25 30 33 40 45 Washington Wizards*
4 7 10 17 20 25 29 33 Toronto Raptors
5 12 14 17 23 31 39 49 Denver Nuggets*
6 13 16 22 26 31 33 36 Orlando Magic
4 8 14 19 24 29 35 43 Philadelphia 76ers*
9 17 23 29 35 41 49 52 Seattle SuperSonics*
2 6 11 12 14 19 25 34 Golden State Warriors
5 12 16 22 26 31 33 34 Los Angeles Lakers
5 10 16 17 19 26 29 33 New York Knicks
3 6 11 15 20 25 27 30 Milwaukee Bucks
6 13 16 21 25 30 36 44 Minnesota Timberwolves
6 12 18 24 30 33 37 42 Cleveland Cavaliers
8 16 24 31 39 47 52 59 San Antonio Spurs*
5 11 15 18 23 26 32 37 Los Angeles Clippers
4 9 15 21 29 35 42 51 Houston Rockets*
1 5 12 21 27 32 39 47 Chicago Bulls*
2 6 8 9 11 12 15 18 Charlotte Bobcats
4 8 13 22 29 34 39 45 Memphis Grizzlies*
5 10 17 23 31 37 43 54 Detroit Pistons*
7 10 16 20 24 30 36 44 Indiana Pacers*
7 9 11 14 17 20 22 26 Utah Jazz
5 10 14 16 21 23 24 27 Portland Trail Blazers
2 4 5 8 10 10 11 13 Atlanta Hawks
2 7 11 15 21 26 32 42 New Jersey Nets*
1 1 2 7 10 13 16 18 New Orleans Hornets

6 13 18 24 32 39 44 52 Dallas Mavericks* 2004
6 15 22 30 37 45 51 55 Sacramento Kings*
8 17 21 25 31 39 47 56 Los Angeles Lakers*
5 9 15 22 27 33 35 41 Milwaukee Bucks*
5 13 19 23 29 32 36 43 Denver Nuggets*
6 10 16 20 24 27 32 37 Seattle SuperSonics
5 12 15 22 29 36 44 50 Memphis Grizzlies*
5 8 15 20 22 24 31 36 Boston Celtics*
4 9 14 18 22 25 27 28 Los Angeles Clippers
5 12 20 28 35 43 48 58 Minnesota Timberwolves*
4 8 10 14 18 20 23 29 Phoenix Suns
1 1 8 10 13 16 19 21 Orlando Magic
4 10 14 17 22 25 30 37 Golden State Warriors
3 5 9 13 19 24 31 35 Cleveland Cavaliers
3 6 8 11 16 20 22 28 Atlanta Hawks
3 7 11 16 23 26 32 39 New York Knicks*
4 7 9 12 16 20 22 25 Washington Wizards
7 13 19 23 27 32 36 41 New Orleans Hornets*
5 10 20 26 32 39 46 57 San Antonio Spurs*
8 16 21 29 36 44 51 61 Indiana Pacers*
5 10 15 17 24 29 35 41 Portland Trail Blazers
5 9 16 21 30 37 42 47 New Jersey Nets*
2 5 12 16 21 25 33 42 Miami Heat*
6 14 17 27 33 36 45 54 Detroit Pistons*
7 13 16 23 29 34 41 45 Houston Rockets*
4 5 9 12 14 18 20 23 Chicago Bulls
5 11 16 21 24 30 36 42 Utah Jazz
5 10 14 18 21 24 28 33 Philadelphia 76ers
5 12 16 20 25 26 30 33 Toronto Raptors

10 18 25 32 38 46 53 60 Dallas Mavericks* 2003
2 7 12 17 23 30 34 38 Golden State Warriors
6 15 22 29 34 41 49 59 Sacramento Kings*
3 7 11 19 26 34 40 50 Los Angeles Lakers*
5 9 13 19 27 30 34 42 Milwaukee Bucks*
6 12 16 20 24 30 37 42 Orlando Magic*
5 11 16 22 30 39 44 51 Minnesota Timberwolves*
0 2 9 12 14 19 26 28 Memphis Grizzlies
9 15 22 29 35 38 41 48 Indiana Pacers*
7 15 18 21 26 35 42 48 Philadelphia 76ers*
2 7 12 17 22 26 31 37 New York Knicks
6 12 19 26 34 42 50 60 San Antonio Spurs*
5 10 19 24 29 32 36 44 Phoenix Suns*
7 13 21 28 34 38 42 49 New Jersey Nets*
4 10 18 25 32 39 44 50 Portland Trail Blazers*
4 5 10 14 17 21 25 30 Chicago Bulls
3 12 17 25 30 35 41 47 Utah Jazz*
6 10 12 14 19 22 28 35 Atlanta Hawks
7 14 18 20 26 33 40 47 New Orleans Hornets*
3 8 12 15 18 19 22 27 Los Angeles Clippers
6 12 17 23 27 30 37 43 Houston Rockets
6 14 18 23 28 34 38 44 Boston Celtics*
8 11 15 18 21 28 33 40 Seattle SuperSonics
6 9 13 20 24 29 33 37 Washington Wizards
2 3 6 8 10 11 14 17 Cleveland Cavaliers
8 13 20 27 34 37 45 50 Detroit Pistons*
4 7 8 10 15 20 22 24 Toronto Raptors
2 5 11 14 17 20 22 25 Miami Heat
2 6 6 10 12 12 15 17 Denver Nuggets


Winning % after x games, total season wins, number of teams, average season wins, average season winning %.



0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700 0.800 0.900 1.000
69 327 655 1098 1732 2359 2239 1669 1556 453 60
3 13 23 33 47 58 50 34 28 8 1
23.00 25.15 28.48 33.27 36.85 40.67 44.78 49.09 55.57 56.63 60.00
0.280 0.307 0.347 0.406 0.449 0.496 0.546 0.599 0.678 0.691 0.732

0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650 0.700 0.750 0.800 0.850 0.900 0.950 1.000
0 51 51 110 191 547 389 912 920 1178 1251 1088 1276 1141 1004 751 630 539 188 0 0
0 3 2 5 8 20 15 27 27 30 30 25 27 23 19 14 11 9 3 0 0
#DIV/0! 17.00 25.50 22.00 23.88 27.35 25.93 33.78 34.07 39.27 41.70 43.52 47.26 49.61 52.84 53.64 57.27 59.89 62.67 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! 0.207 0.311 0.268 0.291 0.334 0.316 0.412 0.416 0.479 0.509 0.531 0.576 0.605 0.644 0.654 0.698 0.730 0.764 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

0.000 0.033 0.067 0.100 0.133 0.167 0.200 0.233 0.267 0.300 0.333 0.367 0.400 0.433 0.467 0.500 0.533 0.567 0.600 0.633 0.667 0.700 0.733 0.767 0.800 0.833 0.867 0.900 0.933 0.967 1.000
0 0 30 23 51 13 155 89 388 328 334 506 1040 679 665 929 1016 840 1000 797 845 644 585 350 404 125 253 128 0 0 0
0 0 2 1 2 1 8 4 16 12 12 16 28 17 18 23 24 18 21 16 16 12 10 6 7 2 4 2 0 0 0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15.00 23.00 25.50 13.00 19.38 22.25 24.25 27.33 27.83 31.63 37.14 39.94 36.94 40.39 42.33 46.67 47.62 49.81 52.81 53.67 58.50 58.33 57.71 62.50 63.25 64.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
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