Latrinsorm
01-22-2014, 06:14 PM
Since the ABA-NBA merger, there have been 37 NBA champions. (SOURCE?) Of these, 24 had the best record in their conference, 9 had the 2nd best, 3 had the 3rd best, and 1 had the 6th best.
If we look at the two teams with the best records in each conference and see how many had top-third ORtgs and DRtgs, we get these results:
1977 2
1978 1
1979 2
1980 1
1981 2
1982 2
1983 2
1984 1
1985 3
1986 3
1987 2
1988 1
1989 3
1990 2
1991 3
1992 3
1993 4
1994 1
1995 2
1996 3
1997 3
1998 2
1999 2
2000 2
2001 1
2002 2
2003 2
2004 1
2005 2
2006 3
2007 2
2008 4
2009 4
2010 2
2011 3
2012 3
2013 3
Breakdown: 3 years with 4 teams, 11 with 3, 16 with 2, and 7 with 1. If we sum the seeds in each year, we get...
n seeds years avg
1 12 7 1.71
2 27 16 1.69
3 14 11 1.27
4 4 3 1.33
...or...
n seeds years avg
1-2 39 23 1.70
3-4 18 14 1.29
...and what makes that average so much higher is that all 5 of the sub-2 seeds won in those sort of years. In the other 19 years, the seed sum is 24 for an average of 1.26.
Thus, the way for a low (3+) seeded team to win the championship is to do so in years with higher parity. It's still a long shot at 4 of 23 (17.4%), but it beats all heck out of 0 of 14 (0.0%).
.
If we look at this year, the teams that will finish with the best two records in the East are definitely the Pacers and Heat, and they will definitely finish top 10 in defense and offense respectively, but as of this moment the Pacers are 16th in ORtg and 2.2 points out and the Heat are 11th in DRtg and 0.3 points out. I would anticipate the Heat finishing top 10 by the end of the year, they have the last 3 years and they're very close. The Pacers were two years ago but were 20th last year and 23rd(!) in 2011 (George's rookie year), and going through their four factors it's clear 2012 was due to an unsustainably low turnover rate for them. Between that and the larger gap, I wouldn't anticipate them finishing as a top third offensive team.
In the West, it's anyone's guess, but the top 3 now are the Spurs, Blazers, and Thunder. The Spurs and Thunder are each top third teams on both sides of the ball and probably will be, the Blazers are not and definitely won't. I would expect the Spurs and Thunder to join the Heat as high seeded top third teams, which makes 3, which makes the prospect of a dark horse champion historically unprecedented.
If we look at the two teams with the best records in each conference and see how many had top-third ORtgs and DRtgs, we get these results:
1977 2
1978 1
1979 2
1980 1
1981 2
1982 2
1983 2
1984 1
1985 3
1986 3
1987 2
1988 1
1989 3
1990 2
1991 3
1992 3
1993 4
1994 1
1995 2
1996 3
1997 3
1998 2
1999 2
2000 2
2001 1
2002 2
2003 2
2004 1
2005 2
2006 3
2007 2
2008 4
2009 4
2010 2
2011 3
2012 3
2013 3
Breakdown: 3 years with 4 teams, 11 with 3, 16 with 2, and 7 with 1. If we sum the seeds in each year, we get...
n seeds years avg
1 12 7 1.71
2 27 16 1.69
3 14 11 1.27
4 4 3 1.33
...or...
n seeds years avg
1-2 39 23 1.70
3-4 18 14 1.29
...and what makes that average so much higher is that all 5 of the sub-2 seeds won in those sort of years. In the other 19 years, the seed sum is 24 for an average of 1.26.
Thus, the way for a low (3+) seeded team to win the championship is to do so in years with higher parity. It's still a long shot at 4 of 23 (17.4%), but it beats all heck out of 0 of 14 (0.0%).
.
If we look at this year, the teams that will finish with the best two records in the East are definitely the Pacers and Heat, and they will definitely finish top 10 in defense and offense respectively, but as of this moment the Pacers are 16th in ORtg and 2.2 points out and the Heat are 11th in DRtg and 0.3 points out. I would anticipate the Heat finishing top 10 by the end of the year, they have the last 3 years and they're very close. The Pacers were two years ago but were 20th last year and 23rd(!) in 2011 (George's rookie year), and going through their four factors it's clear 2012 was due to an unsustainably low turnover rate for them. Between that and the larger gap, I wouldn't anticipate them finishing as a top third offensive team.
In the West, it's anyone's guess, but the top 3 now are the Spurs, Blazers, and Thunder. The Spurs and Thunder are each top third teams on both sides of the ball and probably will be, the Blazers are not and definitely won't. I would expect the Spurs and Thunder to join the Heat as high seeded top third teams, which makes 3, which makes the prospect of a dark horse champion historically unprecedented.