Latrinsorm
01-14-2014, 08:39 PM
Narratives are hard. The Jordan narrative is that a player should have limited early success, then learn how to win (by losing), then they are a winner and they win, and also clutch. But Valthissa's "Stumbling on Wins" book avows that an NBA player peaks at age 24. Who is right and who is wrong? It is definitely right to say that basketball is a team sport. Scottie Pippen first played for the Bulls in 1988, and the Bulls first won a title in 1991 (Jordan age 27, Pippen age 25), so he and Jordan had to learn how to win, right?
There have been 40 players with 6+ years of 10+ Win Shares in NBA history (of players who played entirely in the NBA), including Scottie Pippen whose first year was aged 25. The average age of these players' first 10+ WS season was 925/40 = 23.125. (Incidentally, Horace Grant also had his first 10+ WS year in 1991, at age 25.) Did they learn how to win in the clutch crucible of playoff clutchness, or did it just so happen that Horace and Scottie were pretty lousy their first three years for whatever reason, and it further just so happened that in their fourth year they were both good players and as a result the Bulls won the title?
(Did you know that Scottie Pippen was an All-Star in 1990, but not 1991? Did you further know that Horace Grant was never an All-Star on a Bulls championship team? The Eastern All-Star forwards in 1991 were Barkley, Bird, King, McHale, Wilkins as an injury replacement for that pussy Bird. Why was a 34-year-old Bernard King selected in 1991 off of a pathetic Washington Bu- Wizards, Wizards, definitely Wizards team? At the All-Star break King was averaging 29.9 points per game, third in the league behind Jordan and Barkley. Defense? Passing? No. GET BUCKETS.)
It is especially interesting to consider this in light of LeBron James' career arc. He had limited early success, then he lost a lot, then he up and changed teams, whining about how his Cleveland teammates were pretty lousy... then he went to the Finals three times in a row and won two FMVPs. What if his Cleveland teammates were pretty lousy, and unlike Scottie they had no late bloom to look forward to? Wouldn't that make him factually correct for taking his talents to South Beach?
There have been 40 players with 6+ years of 10+ Win Shares in NBA history (of players who played entirely in the NBA), including Scottie Pippen whose first year was aged 25. The average age of these players' first 10+ WS season was 925/40 = 23.125. (Incidentally, Horace Grant also had his first 10+ WS year in 1991, at age 25.) Did they learn how to win in the clutch crucible of playoff clutchness, or did it just so happen that Horace and Scottie were pretty lousy their first three years for whatever reason, and it further just so happened that in their fourth year they were both good players and as a result the Bulls won the title?
(Did you know that Scottie Pippen was an All-Star in 1990, but not 1991? Did you further know that Horace Grant was never an All-Star on a Bulls championship team? The Eastern All-Star forwards in 1991 were Barkley, Bird, King, McHale, Wilkins as an injury replacement for that pussy Bird. Why was a 34-year-old Bernard King selected in 1991 off of a pathetic Washington Bu- Wizards, Wizards, definitely Wizards team? At the All-Star break King was averaging 29.9 points per game, third in the league behind Jordan and Barkley. Defense? Passing? No. GET BUCKETS.)
It is especially interesting to consider this in light of LeBron James' career arc. He had limited early success, then he lost a lot, then he up and changed teams, whining about how his Cleveland teammates were pretty lousy... then he went to the Finals three times in a row and won two FMVPs. What if his Cleveland teammates were pretty lousy, and unlike Scottie they had no late bloom to look forward to? Wouldn't that make him factually correct for taking his talents to South Beach?