Latrinsorm
12-19-2013, 05:39 PM
Yes.
Thanks for coming, tip your waitresses.
.
In the past 5 years, there have been 75 playoff series. Of these, a team that was in the top 10 in both ORtg and DRtg faced a team that was not 40 times, and won 31. Hence, such a team would have a (31/40)^4 = 36% chance of winning the championship if it ran into zero other similarly balanced teams. The losses are also interesting: 8 were against teams in the top 10 defensively and the middle 10 offensively, 1 was to a team in the top 10 offensively but the bottom 10 defensively. Being a top-third defense therefore seems pretty important. We can also list the 9 losses and offer potential explanations ranging from the plausible to the iffy:
2013 Grizzlies over Clippers - Vinny del Negro
2013 Grizzlies over Thunder - Russell Westbrook
2012 76ers over Bulls - Derrick Rose
2010 Celtics over Cavaliers - the Celts missed 10+ games from Garnett and Pierce, LeBron chokes so hard
2010 Lakers over Jazz - the Lakers missed 15+ games from Pau and Bynum, Kobe is just so clutch
2010 Suns over Spurs - ??? Also the bottom third defense team, if you couldn't guess. Also the series where Tony Parker got benched.
2010 Celtics over Magic - as above (LeBron chokes so hard he makes other teams choke)
2009 Magic over Celtics - Garnett missed the playoffs, Jameer Nelson missed 40 games
2009 Magic over Cavaliers - as above (LEBRON CHOKES SO HARD)
Another plausible explanation for the 2010 Celtics run is old guys mailing it in for the regular season, which makes the Nets decision to acquire said old guys 4 years later even more hilarious. The only one without any mitigating factors is Suns over Spurs, and it was a sweep too. I'm happy with 1 outlier per 40 tests. It also illustrates an underlying flaw with the methodology: the Suns were #1 in O and #23 in D, the Spurs were #9 and #8... but the Suns were 5.3 points better on offense and only 5.7 worse on defense. It still seems like the Spurs should have won, but it's not as massive as the pure ranks indicate.
.
Still, 31 of 40 is pretty strong. Looking at the last 20 years, only 5 champions were outside the top 10 in one category (3 offense 2 defense), none were outside in both. While the number of teams changed from 29 in 2004 and 27 before 1994, it so happens the ranks were or were not in the top third all the same. The exceptions:
2010 Lakers - 11 and 4
missed 17 from Pau and Bynum
only had to beat one top-top team in the Jazz, and everyone knows Deron Williams is a punk
2004 Pistons - 18 and 2
acquired Rasheed late in the season and only got 20 games from him
in those 20 games they put up a 104.9 ORtg that would have been 7th in the league
beat two top-top teams in the Pacers and Lakers
2001 Lakers - 2 and 21(!!!)
Shaq is fat and lazy
Kobe doesn't have what it takes to lead a team
then beat three: Jail Blazers, Kings, Spurs.
1999 Spurs - 11 and 1
lockout season of only 50 games, smaller sample means higher variability
only had to beat Not-Quite-Jail Blazers (although any team with Rasheed and J.R. Rider...)
1995 Rockets - 7 and 12
acquired Drexler late in the season for 35 games
although the 111.5 DRtg they put up with is what put them out of the top 10
beat Jazz and Spurs
1994 Rockets - 15 and 2
don't EVER underestimate the heart of a champion
also only had to beat the Jazz, sensing a trend there
Morale of the story - even if you have the greatest center of the past 30 years (Rockets, Rockets) and/or make a major midseason trade (Drexler, Rasheed) or openly mail in the regular season (Lakers), you are very unlikely to win the title without being in the top third of both offense and defense.
.
The putative contenders so far this season are the Pacers, Heat, Blazers, Thunder, and Spurs. Their ranks:
15 and 1
2 and 6
1 and 23
6 and 4
5 and 2
The Pacers and Blazers have some work to do.
.
A final note: very rarely, a champion ends up in the top 5 in both offense and defense:
2007 Spurs (5 and 2)
1997 Bulls (1 and 5)
1996 Bulls (1 and 1) (nbd)
With that said, it's relatively common for a non-champion to do so as well: 2013 Bulls, 2012 Thunder, 2011 Heat, 2010 Magic, 2009 Cavs in the past 5 years alone. Top 5 doesn't seem to give much better odds than top 10 already does. It's just fun to point out that 1996 to 1997 Bulls were really, really, really, really good.
Thanks for coming, tip your waitresses.
.
In the past 5 years, there have been 75 playoff series. Of these, a team that was in the top 10 in both ORtg and DRtg faced a team that was not 40 times, and won 31. Hence, such a team would have a (31/40)^4 = 36% chance of winning the championship if it ran into zero other similarly balanced teams. The losses are also interesting: 8 were against teams in the top 10 defensively and the middle 10 offensively, 1 was to a team in the top 10 offensively but the bottom 10 defensively. Being a top-third defense therefore seems pretty important. We can also list the 9 losses and offer potential explanations ranging from the plausible to the iffy:
2013 Grizzlies over Clippers - Vinny del Negro
2013 Grizzlies over Thunder - Russell Westbrook
2012 76ers over Bulls - Derrick Rose
2010 Celtics over Cavaliers - the Celts missed 10+ games from Garnett and Pierce, LeBron chokes so hard
2010 Lakers over Jazz - the Lakers missed 15+ games from Pau and Bynum, Kobe is just so clutch
2010 Suns over Spurs - ??? Also the bottom third defense team, if you couldn't guess. Also the series where Tony Parker got benched.
2010 Celtics over Magic - as above (LeBron chokes so hard he makes other teams choke)
2009 Magic over Celtics - Garnett missed the playoffs, Jameer Nelson missed 40 games
2009 Magic over Cavaliers - as above (LEBRON CHOKES SO HARD)
Another plausible explanation for the 2010 Celtics run is old guys mailing it in for the regular season, which makes the Nets decision to acquire said old guys 4 years later even more hilarious. The only one without any mitigating factors is Suns over Spurs, and it was a sweep too. I'm happy with 1 outlier per 40 tests. It also illustrates an underlying flaw with the methodology: the Suns were #1 in O and #23 in D, the Spurs were #9 and #8... but the Suns were 5.3 points better on offense and only 5.7 worse on defense. It still seems like the Spurs should have won, but it's not as massive as the pure ranks indicate.
.
Still, 31 of 40 is pretty strong. Looking at the last 20 years, only 5 champions were outside the top 10 in one category (3 offense 2 defense), none were outside in both. While the number of teams changed from 29 in 2004 and 27 before 1994, it so happens the ranks were or were not in the top third all the same. The exceptions:
2010 Lakers - 11 and 4
missed 17 from Pau and Bynum
only had to beat one top-top team in the Jazz, and everyone knows Deron Williams is a punk
2004 Pistons - 18 and 2
acquired Rasheed late in the season and only got 20 games from him
in those 20 games they put up a 104.9 ORtg that would have been 7th in the league
beat two top-top teams in the Pacers and Lakers
2001 Lakers - 2 and 21(!!!)
Shaq is fat and lazy
Kobe doesn't have what it takes to lead a team
then beat three: Jail Blazers, Kings, Spurs.
1999 Spurs - 11 and 1
lockout season of only 50 games, smaller sample means higher variability
only had to beat Not-Quite-Jail Blazers (although any team with Rasheed and J.R. Rider...)
1995 Rockets - 7 and 12
acquired Drexler late in the season for 35 games
although the 111.5 DRtg they put up with is what put them out of the top 10
beat Jazz and Spurs
1994 Rockets - 15 and 2
don't EVER underestimate the heart of a champion
also only had to beat the Jazz, sensing a trend there
Morale of the story - even if you have the greatest center of the past 30 years (Rockets, Rockets) and/or make a major midseason trade (Drexler, Rasheed) or openly mail in the regular season (Lakers), you are very unlikely to win the title without being in the top third of both offense and defense.
.
The putative contenders so far this season are the Pacers, Heat, Blazers, Thunder, and Spurs. Their ranks:
15 and 1
2 and 6
1 and 23
6 and 4
5 and 2
The Pacers and Blazers have some work to do.
.
A final note: very rarely, a champion ends up in the top 5 in both offense and defense:
2007 Spurs (5 and 2)
1997 Bulls (1 and 5)
1996 Bulls (1 and 1) (nbd)
With that said, it's relatively common for a non-champion to do so as well: 2013 Bulls, 2012 Thunder, 2011 Heat, 2010 Magic, 2009 Cavs in the past 5 years alone. Top 5 doesn't seem to give much better odds than top 10 already does. It's just fun to point out that 1996 to 1997 Bulls were really, really, really, really good.