Latrinsorm
12-07-2013, 07:28 PM
Branching off of the last thread (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?87168-NBA-Did-Kobe-Deserve-His-MVP), I went through all 33 years of the writer era (1981-present) and tallied up the opportunities every player had: every year in which they were (1) on a team with one of the best two records in their conference and (2) led said team in Win Shares.
Important note! I switched from "top 2 seed" to "top 2 record" once it became clear how much of an outlier Steve Nash was. Each method gives 3 misses and share Jordan 1988 and Malone 1982; the first method misses Dr. J in 1981 while the latter misses Steve in 2006, when the Mavericks finished 60-22 and got a 4 seed behind the 54-28 Suns and 44-38 Nuggets, and the 49-32 Grizzlies at the 5 seed said "Why me?" The NBA only decides matchups with seeding, so the "3 seed" Nuggets opened on the road against the 47-35 "6 seed" Clippers, and so on. This resulted in lots of different opportunities and 5 different MVPs, and let's get to them now to further buttress the point:
Year Actual Winner Top 2 Seed Top 2 Record
1981 Julius Erving Cedric Maxwell Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
1982 Moses Malone Sidney Moncrief Julius Erving
1983 Moses Malone Moses Malone Moses Malone
1984 Larry Bird Adrian Dantley Larry Bird
1985 Larry Bird Larry Bird Larry Bird
1986 Larry Bird Larry Bird Larry Bird
1987 Magic Johnson Magic Johnson Magic Johnson
1988 Michael Jordan Larry Bird Larry Bird
1989 Magic Johnson Magic Johnson Magic Johnson
1990 Magic Johnson Charles Barkley Michael Jordan
1991 Michael Jordan Michael Jordan Michael Jordan
1992 Michael Jordan Michael Jordan Michael Jordan
1993 Charles Barkley Michael Jordan Michael Jordan
1994 Hakeem Olajuwon Hakeem Olajuwon Hakeem Olajuwon
1995 David Robinson David Robinson David Robinson
1996 Michael Jordan Michael Jordan Michael Jordan
1997 Karl Malone Michael Jordan Michael Jordan
1998 Michael Jordan Karl Malone Karl Malone
1999 Karl Malone Karl Malone Karl Malone
2000 Shaquille Shaquille Shaquille
2001 Allen Iverson Shaquille Shaquille
2002 Tim Duncan Tim Duncan Tim Duncan
2003 Tim Duncan Tim Duncan Tim Duncan
2004 Kevin Garnett Kevin Garnett Kevin Garnett
2005 Steve Nash Amar'e S. Amar'e S.
2006 Steve Nash Chauncey Dirk Nowitzki
2007 Dirk Nowitzki Dirk Nowitzki Dirk Nowitzki
2008 Kobe Bryant Chris Paul Chris Paul
2009 LeBron James LeBron James LeBron James
2010 LeBron James LeBron James LeBron James
2011 Derrick Rose LeBron James LeBron James
2012 LeBron James LeBron James LeBron James
2013 LeBron James LeBron James LeBron James
Act. 2Seed 2Rec. Name
0 1 0 Adrian Dantley
1 0 0 Allen Iverson
0 1 1 Amar'e Stoudemire
0 1 0 Cedric Maxwell
1 1 0 Charles Barkley
0 1 0 Chauncey Billups
0 1 1 Chris Paul
1 1 1 David Robinson
1 0 0 Derrick Rose
1 1 2 Dirk Nowitzki
1 1 1 Hakeem Olajuwon
1 0 1 Julius Erving
0 0 1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2 2 2 Karl Malone
1 1 1 Kevin Garnett
1 0 0 Kobe Bryant
3 3 4 Larry Bird
4 5 5 LeBron James
3 2 2 Magic Johnson
5 5 6 Michael Jordan
2 1 1 Moses Malone
1 2 2 Shaquille O'Neal
0 1 0 Sidney Moncrief
2 0 0 Steve Nash
2 2 2 Tim Duncan
The guys who get it with top 2 seeds but not top 2 record are Adrian Dantley, Cedric Maxwell, Charles Barkley, Chauncey Billups, Sidney Moncrief. Those guys are pretty good, but I'd rather have the guys who get it with top 2 record but not top 2 seed: Julius Erving, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. I think that's a pretty clear distinction, and we're stuck with Karl Malone either way.
.
So moving on, we can look at the total opportunities under the top 2 record rating for each player:
Opp Won Yrs Name
1 0 7 Adrian Dantley
1 0 13 Allen Iverson
2 0 8 Alonzo Mourning
1 1 7 Amar'e Stoudemire
1 0 8 Anfernee Hardaway
1 0 7 Artis Gilmore
2 0 9 Ben Wallace
2 0 11 Bill Laimbeer
1 0 6 Calvin Natt
1 0 10 Carmelo Anthony
1 0 5 Cedric Maxwell
1 0 14 Charles Barkley
6 0 12 Chauncey Billups
1 1 7 Chris Paul
1 0 12 Clyde Drexler
3 1 11 David Robinson
1 0 10 Dennis Johnson
1 0 3 Derrick Rose
4 2 13 Dirk Nowitzki
1 0 12 Dominique Wilkins
1 0 9 Dwight Howard
2 0 8 Dwyane Wade
1 0 8 Fat Lever
3 0 16 Gary Payton
3 1 13 Hakeem Olajuwon
1 0 10 Jack Sikma
1 0 7 James Donaldson
2 0 17 Jason Kidd
1 0 6 Jermaine O'Neal
1 0 5 Jim Paxson
1 0 2 Joakim Noah
1 0 14 John Stockton
3 1 6 Julius Erving
1 1 8 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4 2 18 Karl Malone
2 0 6 Kevin Durant
2 1 17 Kevin Garnett
1 0 7 Kevin Johnson
1 0 11 Kevin Willis
1 0 16 Kobe Bryant
7 4 10 Larry Bird
1 0 11 Larry Nance
6 5 10 LeBron James
10 2 10 Magic Johnson
1 0 6 Manu Ginobili
1 0 6 Mark Price
7 6 13 Michael Jordan
1 1 11 Moses Malone
3 0 14 Patrick Ewing
3 0 10 Pau Gasol
1 0 8 Peja Stojakovic
2 0 16 Ray Allen
3 0 17 Reggie Miller
3 2 12 Shaquille O'Neal
1 0 9 Shawn Kemp
2 0 6 Sidney Moncrief
1 0 13 Steve Nash
1 0 9 Steve Smith
2 0 9 Terry Porter
7 2 16 Tim Duncan
1 0 10 Tim Hardaway
2 0 11 Tony Parker
132 (33 * 4) opportunities are distributed among 62 players, of whom 20 are still active. "Yrs" is defined as those years where the player played 2000+ MP (prorated for strike seasons), and also keep in mind that this is only 1981-present so we have actually given Kareem one more MVP than he already had. A lot of the 1 and dones are interesting for various reasons, but let's look at only those with 3+:
Opp Won Yrs Name
6 0 12 Chauncey Billups
3 1 11 David Robinson
4 2 13 Dirk Nowitzki
3 0 16 Gary Payton
3 1 13 Hakeem Olajuwon
3 1 6 Julius Erving
4 2 18 Karl Malone
7 4 10 Larry Bird
6 5 10 LeBron James
10 2 10 Magic Johnson
7 6 13 Michael Jordan
3 0 14 Patrick Ewing
3 0 10 Pau Gasol
3 0 17 Reggie Miller
3 2 12 Shaquille O'Neal
7 2 16 Tim Duncan
It's not surprising that Magic would have the most, the Lakers were in the Finals starting his rookie year due to a traded draft pick and continued to excel throughout his career. It's a little surprising that he has the most by so far, especially since Kareem was on his team in the early years.
It's very surprising that Chauncey has so many, given the popular perception that the Pistons were a well balanced team / without a star.
It's very, very surprising that Shaq has so few, and I think it really illustrates both how brief his peak was and how much he loafed in the regular season. Granted, his record stands as one of the top 16 in the past 33 years, but there is no universe where Reggie Miller should have as many MVP opportunities as Shaquille O'Neal.
Anyway, a top 5 of Magic, Jordan, Bird, Duncan, and LeBron (after this year) seems about right to me.
Important note! I switched from "top 2 seed" to "top 2 record" once it became clear how much of an outlier Steve Nash was. Each method gives 3 misses and share Jordan 1988 and Malone 1982; the first method misses Dr. J in 1981 while the latter misses Steve in 2006, when the Mavericks finished 60-22 and got a 4 seed behind the 54-28 Suns and 44-38 Nuggets, and the 49-32 Grizzlies at the 5 seed said "Why me?" The NBA only decides matchups with seeding, so the "3 seed" Nuggets opened on the road against the 47-35 "6 seed" Clippers, and so on. This resulted in lots of different opportunities and 5 different MVPs, and let's get to them now to further buttress the point:
Year Actual Winner Top 2 Seed Top 2 Record
1981 Julius Erving Cedric Maxwell Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
1982 Moses Malone Sidney Moncrief Julius Erving
1983 Moses Malone Moses Malone Moses Malone
1984 Larry Bird Adrian Dantley Larry Bird
1985 Larry Bird Larry Bird Larry Bird
1986 Larry Bird Larry Bird Larry Bird
1987 Magic Johnson Magic Johnson Magic Johnson
1988 Michael Jordan Larry Bird Larry Bird
1989 Magic Johnson Magic Johnson Magic Johnson
1990 Magic Johnson Charles Barkley Michael Jordan
1991 Michael Jordan Michael Jordan Michael Jordan
1992 Michael Jordan Michael Jordan Michael Jordan
1993 Charles Barkley Michael Jordan Michael Jordan
1994 Hakeem Olajuwon Hakeem Olajuwon Hakeem Olajuwon
1995 David Robinson David Robinson David Robinson
1996 Michael Jordan Michael Jordan Michael Jordan
1997 Karl Malone Michael Jordan Michael Jordan
1998 Michael Jordan Karl Malone Karl Malone
1999 Karl Malone Karl Malone Karl Malone
2000 Shaquille Shaquille Shaquille
2001 Allen Iverson Shaquille Shaquille
2002 Tim Duncan Tim Duncan Tim Duncan
2003 Tim Duncan Tim Duncan Tim Duncan
2004 Kevin Garnett Kevin Garnett Kevin Garnett
2005 Steve Nash Amar'e S. Amar'e S.
2006 Steve Nash Chauncey Dirk Nowitzki
2007 Dirk Nowitzki Dirk Nowitzki Dirk Nowitzki
2008 Kobe Bryant Chris Paul Chris Paul
2009 LeBron James LeBron James LeBron James
2010 LeBron James LeBron James LeBron James
2011 Derrick Rose LeBron James LeBron James
2012 LeBron James LeBron James LeBron James
2013 LeBron James LeBron James LeBron James
Act. 2Seed 2Rec. Name
0 1 0 Adrian Dantley
1 0 0 Allen Iverson
0 1 1 Amar'e Stoudemire
0 1 0 Cedric Maxwell
1 1 0 Charles Barkley
0 1 0 Chauncey Billups
0 1 1 Chris Paul
1 1 1 David Robinson
1 0 0 Derrick Rose
1 1 2 Dirk Nowitzki
1 1 1 Hakeem Olajuwon
1 0 1 Julius Erving
0 0 1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2 2 2 Karl Malone
1 1 1 Kevin Garnett
1 0 0 Kobe Bryant
3 3 4 Larry Bird
4 5 5 LeBron James
3 2 2 Magic Johnson
5 5 6 Michael Jordan
2 1 1 Moses Malone
1 2 2 Shaquille O'Neal
0 1 0 Sidney Moncrief
2 0 0 Steve Nash
2 2 2 Tim Duncan
The guys who get it with top 2 seeds but not top 2 record are Adrian Dantley, Cedric Maxwell, Charles Barkley, Chauncey Billups, Sidney Moncrief. Those guys are pretty good, but I'd rather have the guys who get it with top 2 record but not top 2 seed: Julius Erving, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. I think that's a pretty clear distinction, and we're stuck with Karl Malone either way.
.
So moving on, we can look at the total opportunities under the top 2 record rating for each player:
Opp Won Yrs Name
1 0 7 Adrian Dantley
1 0 13 Allen Iverson
2 0 8 Alonzo Mourning
1 1 7 Amar'e Stoudemire
1 0 8 Anfernee Hardaway
1 0 7 Artis Gilmore
2 0 9 Ben Wallace
2 0 11 Bill Laimbeer
1 0 6 Calvin Natt
1 0 10 Carmelo Anthony
1 0 5 Cedric Maxwell
1 0 14 Charles Barkley
6 0 12 Chauncey Billups
1 1 7 Chris Paul
1 0 12 Clyde Drexler
3 1 11 David Robinson
1 0 10 Dennis Johnson
1 0 3 Derrick Rose
4 2 13 Dirk Nowitzki
1 0 12 Dominique Wilkins
1 0 9 Dwight Howard
2 0 8 Dwyane Wade
1 0 8 Fat Lever
3 0 16 Gary Payton
3 1 13 Hakeem Olajuwon
1 0 10 Jack Sikma
1 0 7 James Donaldson
2 0 17 Jason Kidd
1 0 6 Jermaine O'Neal
1 0 5 Jim Paxson
1 0 2 Joakim Noah
1 0 14 John Stockton
3 1 6 Julius Erving
1 1 8 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4 2 18 Karl Malone
2 0 6 Kevin Durant
2 1 17 Kevin Garnett
1 0 7 Kevin Johnson
1 0 11 Kevin Willis
1 0 16 Kobe Bryant
7 4 10 Larry Bird
1 0 11 Larry Nance
6 5 10 LeBron James
10 2 10 Magic Johnson
1 0 6 Manu Ginobili
1 0 6 Mark Price
7 6 13 Michael Jordan
1 1 11 Moses Malone
3 0 14 Patrick Ewing
3 0 10 Pau Gasol
1 0 8 Peja Stojakovic
2 0 16 Ray Allen
3 0 17 Reggie Miller
3 2 12 Shaquille O'Neal
1 0 9 Shawn Kemp
2 0 6 Sidney Moncrief
1 0 13 Steve Nash
1 0 9 Steve Smith
2 0 9 Terry Porter
7 2 16 Tim Duncan
1 0 10 Tim Hardaway
2 0 11 Tony Parker
132 (33 * 4) opportunities are distributed among 62 players, of whom 20 are still active. "Yrs" is defined as those years where the player played 2000+ MP (prorated for strike seasons), and also keep in mind that this is only 1981-present so we have actually given Kareem one more MVP than he already had. A lot of the 1 and dones are interesting for various reasons, but let's look at only those with 3+:
Opp Won Yrs Name
6 0 12 Chauncey Billups
3 1 11 David Robinson
4 2 13 Dirk Nowitzki
3 0 16 Gary Payton
3 1 13 Hakeem Olajuwon
3 1 6 Julius Erving
4 2 18 Karl Malone
7 4 10 Larry Bird
6 5 10 LeBron James
10 2 10 Magic Johnson
7 6 13 Michael Jordan
3 0 14 Patrick Ewing
3 0 10 Pau Gasol
3 0 17 Reggie Miller
3 2 12 Shaquille O'Neal
7 2 16 Tim Duncan
It's not surprising that Magic would have the most, the Lakers were in the Finals starting his rookie year due to a traded draft pick and continued to excel throughout his career. It's a little surprising that he has the most by so far, especially since Kareem was on his team in the early years.
It's very surprising that Chauncey has so many, given the popular perception that the Pistons were a well balanced team / without a star.
It's very, very surprising that Shaq has so few, and I think it really illustrates both how brief his peak was and how much he loafed in the regular season. Granted, his record stands as one of the top 16 in the past 33 years, but there is no universe where Reggie Miller should have as many MVP opportunities as Shaquille O'Neal.
Anyway, a top 5 of Magic, Jordan, Bird, Duncan, and LeBron (after this year) seems about right to me.