Iran nuke deal: whitewash or genuine progress?

[~Rocktar~]

Well, they reached an agreement that will supposedly lead to a real deal on keeping Iran bombless. All it took was a violent uprising and electing a slightly less extreme president in Iran that is not under the thumb of the Ayatollah.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/23/21578569-western-powers-reach-deal-with-iran-over-its-nuclear-program?lite

[Jarvan]

Well, they reached an agreement that will supposedly lead to a real deal on keeping Iran bombless. All it took was a violent uprising and electing a slightly less extreme president in Iran that is not under the thumb of the Ayatollah.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/23/21578569-western-powers-reach-deal-with-iran-over-its-nuclear-program?lite

Do you really believe Iran will do anything it says though? They just bought themselves at least 1 year to build a bomb. And meanwhile, no new sanctions, and maybe reduction of existing sanctions.

[Taernath]

All it took was a violent uprising and electing a slightly less extreme president in Iran that is not under the thumb of the Ayatollah.[/URL]

The Ayatollah determines who is able to be elected in the first place, and the president still answers to him.

[Jarvan]

Also there really wasn't a violent uprising. That was Egypt.

[~Rocktar~]

The Ayatollah determines who is able to be elected in the first place, and the president still answers to him.

Now see, I am pretty sure this guy got elected on being more moderate and doing more of what the people wanted.



Also there really wasn't a violent uprising. That was Egypt.

Sure about that? They didn't overthrow the government entirely that's true, they did have some clashes with police, some people killed, many days of protests and martial law and so on. For Iran, short of a full civil war, that is pretty major considering their level of government control. Could be the powers that be saw the writing on the wall and decided to move to the shadows quietly and maybe retire with money and power instead of a cell or a rope?

[~Rocktar~]

Do you really believe Iran will do anything it says though? They just bought themselves at least 1 year to build a bomb. And meanwhile, no new sanctions, and maybe reduction of existing sanctions.

Personally, no, not really unless there is something else going on behind the scenes.

[NinjasLeadTheWay]

5913

I posted this in the wrong thread earlier.

[~Rocktar~]

5913

I posted this in the wrong thread earlier.

Now THAT is just goddamn funny right there, I don't care who you are.

[NinjasLeadTheWay]

5914

Silly.

[Archigeek]

The advent of the information age is largely what's driving change in the middle east. It's just gotten more difficult to keep your thumb on your people these days. So they can't operate in a vacuum like they used to be able to in that part of the world. What happens Egypt affects Iran and Iraq and Syria, etc. And as always, poor Lebanon is stuck in the middle getting shat upon.

[Parkbandit]

This pretty much sums up my thoughts of this deal.

http://www.drudgereport.com/onc.jpg

[Latrinsorm]

I mean, that's the best they could do with photoshop? His head is at least 20% too big. Really disappointing.

[NinjasLeadTheWay]

HOLY WALL OF TEXT, BATMAN!!!

The following is the full text of the nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, as transmitted by CNN:

Joint Plan of Action

Preamble

The goal for these negotiations is to reach a mutually-agreed long-term comprehensive solution that would ensure Iranˈs nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek or develop any nuclear weapons. This comprehensive solution would build on these initial measures and result in a final step for a period to be agreed upon and the resolution of concerns. This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein. This comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment program with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the program. This comprehensive solution would constitute an integrated whole where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. This comprehensive solution would involve a reciprocal, step-by step process, and would produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions, as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iranˈs nuclear program.

There would be additional steps in between the initial measures and the final step, including, among other things, addressing the UN Security Council resolutions, with a view toward bringing to a satisfactory conclusion the UN Security Councilˈs consideration of this matter. The E3+3 and Iran will be responsible for conclusion and implementation of mutual near-term measures and the comprehensive solution in good faith. A Joint Commission of E3/EU+3 and Iran will be established to monitor the implementation of the near-term measures and address issues that may arise, with the IAEA responsible for verification of nuclear-related measures. The Joint Commission will work with the IAEA to facilitate resolution of past and present issues of concern.

Elements of a first step

The first step would be time-bound, with a duration of 6 months, and renewable by mutual consent, during which all parties will work to maintain a constructive atmosphere for negotiations in good faith.

Iran would undertake the following voluntary measures:

* From the existing uranium enriched to 20%, retain half as working stock of 20% oxide for fabrication of fuel for the TRR. Dilute the remaining 20% UF6 to no more than 5%. No reconversion line.

* Iran announces that it will not enrich uranium over 5% for the duration of the 6 months.

* Iran announces that it will not make any further advances of its activities at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (1), Fordow (2), or the Arak reactor (3), designated by the IAEA as IR-40.

* Beginning when the line for conversion of UF6 enriched up to 5% to UO2 is ready, Iran has decided to convert to oxide UF6 newly enriched up to 5% during the 6 month period, as provided in the operational schedule of the conversion plant declared to the IAEA.

* No new locations for the enrichment.

* Iran will continue its safeguarded R&D practices, including its current enrichment R&D practices, which are not designed for accumulation of the enriched uranium.

* No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.

* Enhanced monitoring:

- Provision of specified information to the IAEA, including information on Iranˈs plans for nuclear facilities, a description of each building on each nuclear site, a description of the scale of operations for each location engaged in specified nuclear activities, information on uranium mines and mills, and information on source material. This information would be provided within three months of the adoption of these measures.

- Submission of an updated DIQ for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40, to the IAEA.

- Steps to agree with the IAEA on conclusion of the Safeguards Approach for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40.

- Daily IAEA inspector access when inspectors are not present for the purpose of Design Information Verification, Interim Inventory Verification, Physical Inventory Verification, and unannounced inspections, for the purpose of access to offline surveillance records, at Fordow and Natanz.

- IAEA inspector managed access to:

. centrifuge assembly workshops4;

. centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities; and,

. uranium mines and mills.

In return, the E3/EU+3 would undertake the following voluntary measures:

- Pause efforts to further reduce Iranˈs crude oil sales, enabling Iranˈs current customers to purchase their current average amounts of crude oil. Enable the repatriation of an agreed amount of revenue held abroad. For such oil sales, suspend the EU and U.S. sanctions on associated insurance and transportation services.

- Suspend U.S. and EU sanctions on:

. Iranˈs petrochemical exports, as well as sanctions on associated services. (5)

. Gold and precious metals, as well as sanctions on associated services.

• Suspend U.S. sanctions on Iranˈs auto industry, as well as sanctions on associated services.

• License the supply and installation in Iran of spare parts for safety of flight for Iranian civil aviation and associated services. License safety related inspections and repairs in Iran as well as associated services. (6)

• No new nuclear-related UN Security Council sanctions.

• No new EU nuclear-related sanctions.

• The U.S. Administration, acting consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Congress, will refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions.

• Establish a financial channel to facilitate humanitarian trade for Iranˈs domestic needs using Iranian oil revenues held abroad. Humanitarian trade would be defined as transactions involving food and agricultural products, medicine, medical devices, and medical expenses incurred abroad. This channel would involve specified foreign banks and non-designated Iranian banks to be defined when establishing the channel.

* This channel could also enable:

a- transactions required to pay Iranˈs UN obligations; and,

b- direct tuition payments to universities and colleges for Iranian students studying abroad, up to an agreed amount for the six month period.

• Increase the EU authorisation thresholds for transactions for non-sanctioned trade to an agreed amount.

Elements of the final step of a comprehensive solution*

The final step of a comprehensive solution, which the parties aim to conclude negotiating and commence implementing no more than one year after the adoption of this document, would:

• Have a specified long-term duration to be agreed upon.

• Reflect the rights and obligations of parties to the NPT and IAEA Safeguards Agreements.

• Comprehensively lift UN Security Council, multilateral and national nuclear-related sanctions, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy, on a schedule to be agreed upon.

• Involve a mutually defined enrichment program with mutually agreed parameters consistent with practical needs, with agreed limits on scope and level of enrichment activities, capacity, where it is carried out, and stocks of enriched uranium, for a period to be agreed upon.

• Fully resolve concerns related to the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.

• Fully implement the agreed transparency measures and enhanced monitoring. Ratify and implement the Additional Protocol, consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Majlis (Iranian parliament).

• Include international civil nuclear cooperation, including among others, on acquiring modern light water power and research reactors and associated equipment, and the supply of modern nuclear fuel as well as agreed R&D practices.

Following successful implementation of the final step of the comprehensive solution for its full duration, the Iranian nuclear program will be treated in the same manner as that of any non-nuclear weapon state party to the NPT.

—————————————————————————————

(Footnotes)

(1) Namely, during the 6 months, Iran will not feed UF6 into the centrifuges installed but not enriching uranium. Not install additional centrifuges. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

(2) At Fordow, no further enrichment over 5% at 4 cascades now enriching uranium, and not increase enrichment capacity. Not feed UF6 into the other 12 cascades, which would remain in a non-operative state. No interconnections between cascades. Iran announces that during the first 6 months, it will replace existing centrifuges with centrifuges of the same type.

(3) Iran announces on concerns related to the construction of the reactor at Arak that for 6 months it will not commission the reactor or transfer fuel or heavy water to the reactor site and will not test additional fuel or produce more fuel for the reactor or install remaining components.

(4) Consistent with its plans, Iranˈs centrifuge production during the 6 months will be dedicated to replace damaged machines.

(5) ˈSanctions on associated servicesˈ means any service, such as insurance, transportation, or financial, subject to the underlying U.S. or EU sanctions applicable, insofar as each service is related to the underlying sanction and required to facilitate the desired transactions. These services could involve any non-designated Iranian entities.

(6) Sanctions relief could involve any non-designated Iranian airlines as well as Iran Air.

* With respect to the final step and any steps in between, the standard principle that ˈnothing is agreed until everything is agreedˈ applies.ˈ

[NinjasLeadTheWay]

This particular section sounds familiar...can anyone tell me why?

- Provision of specified information to the IAEA, including information on Iranˈs plans for nuclear facilities, a description of each building on each nuclear site, a description of the scale of operations for each location engaged in specified nuclear activities, information on uranium mines and mills, and information on source material. This information would be provided within three months of the adoption of these measures.

- Submission of an updated DIQ for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40, to the IAEA.

- Steps to agree with the IAEA on conclusion of the Safeguards Approach for the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40.

- Daily IAEA inspector access when inspectors are not present for the purpose of Design Information Verification, Interim Inventory Verification, Physical Inventory Verification, and unannounced inspections, for the purpose of access to offline surveillance records, at Fordow and Natanz.

- IAEA inspector managed access to:

. centrifuge assembly workshops4;

. centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities; and,

. uranium mines and mills.

[Jarvan]

Iran's demonstrations were meaningless. Unless the people rose up and killed Ali Khamenei and every other ayatollah, there really is no change in Iran.

As for this deal, it just gives Iran two things, the time it needs to build a Nuke, and the money it needs to build a nuke. Basically, Obama just gave Iran a nuke.

[Atlanteax]

Iran is negotiating because the Western sanctions are indeed hurting.

[NinjasLeadTheWay]

The real question for me is this: Will Israel pre-emptively take violent action on Iran? If they do, will Russia get involved? Will we get involved? If Russia gets involved, who else will play? Syria? This has so much potential to be really bad.

[Jarvan]

The real question for me is this: Will Israel pre-emptively take violent action on Iran? If they do, will Russia get involved? Will we get involved? If Russia gets involved, who else will play? Syria? This has so much potential to be really bad.

I foresee Israel getting help/permission from Saudi for an attack on Iran. Saudi has a lot to lose with a Nuclear Iran.

As for why Iran is negotiating.. of course the sanctions hurt. But they are really meaningless. They are doing it to buy time, that's all. This is North Korea all over again. The only difference is, Iran is fucking bat shit insane enough to use a Nuke. Korea isn't.

[NinjasLeadTheWay]

So all in all.... 5916

[NinjasLeadTheWay]

Perhaps President Obama should have told the Iranians, “If you like your nuclear weapon development program you can keep it, period.”
Read more at http://allenbwest.com/2013/11/iran-says-white-house-lying-nuke-deal-wait-obama-lies/#HaSyd36qk2JtUWZM.99


An Iranian foreign ministry official on Tuesday rejected the White House’s version of the deal as “invalid” and accused Washington of releasing a factually inaccurate primer that misleads the American public.

“What has been released by the website of the White House as a fact sheet is a one-sided interpretation of the agreed text in Geneva and some of the explanations and words in the sheet contradict the text of the Joint Plan of Action, and this fact sheet has unfortunately been translated and released in the name of the Geneva agreement by certain media, which is not true,” Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham told the Iranian press on Tuesday.

Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the key component in a nuclear weapon, is fully recognized under the draft released by Tehran. “This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein,” the agreement reads, according to a copy released to Iranian state-run media.

The White House confirmed to the Washington Free Beacon on Monday that the final details of the plan have yet to be worked out, meaning that Iran is not yet beholden to a six month freeze its nuclear activities.


Read more at http://allenbwest.com/2013/11/iran-says-white-house-lying-nuke-deal-wait-obama-lies/#HaSyd36qk2JtUWZM.99


http://allenbwest.com/2013/11/iran-says-white-house-lying-nuke-deal-wait-obama-lies/

[Parkbandit]

Perhaps President Obama should have told the Iranians, “If you like your nuclear weapon development program you can keep it, period.”
Read more at http://allenbwest.com/2013/11/iran-says-white-house-lying-nuke-deal-wait-obama-lies/#HaSyd36qk2JtUWZM.99


An Iranian foreign ministry official on Tuesday rejected the White House’s version of the deal as “invalid” and accused Washington of releasing a factually inaccurate primer that misleads the American public.

“What has been released by the website of the White House as a fact sheet is a one-sided interpretation of the agreed text in Geneva and some of the explanations and words in the sheet contradict the text of the Joint Plan of Action, and this fact sheet has unfortunately been translated and released in the name of the Geneva agreement by certain media, which is not true,” Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham told the Iranian press on Tuesday.

Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the key component in a nuclear weapon, is fully recognized under the draft released by Tehran. “This comprehensive solution would enable Iran to fully enjoy its right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the relevant articles of the NPT in conformity with its obligations therein,” the agreement reads, according to a copy released to Iranian state-run media.

The White House confirmed to the Washington Free Beacon on Monday that the final details of the plan have yet to be worked out, meaning that Iran is not yet beholden to a six month freeze its nuclear activities.


Read more at http://allenbwest.com/2013/11/iran-says-white-house-lying-nuke-deal-wait-obama-lies/#HaSyd36qk2JtUWZM.99


http://allenbwest.com/2013/11/iran-says-white-house-lying-nuke-deal-wait-obama-lies/

I'm not sure who to believe.. the Iranian government or ours. They both lie all the time.

[NinjasLeadTheWay]

U.S. now indicates Iran interim deal wasn’t quite finalized: “Technical details have yet to be worked out, State Department says, meaning six-month countdown to permanent deal hasn’t started and Iran isn’t bound by any new terms.”

http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2013/11/27/u-s-now-indicates-iran-interim-deal-wasnt-quite-finalized-technical-details-have-yet-to-be-worked-out-state-department-says-meaning-six-month-countdown-to-permanent-deal-hasnt/

At this point, who's fucking shocked by this?