The new polls are in.

[GSTamral]

http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html

Well, it's starting to come in. Bush got a very strong bump from his convention.

52-41 now, with recent reports from strategic vision of a national 54-39 margin, and zogby reports 53-44.

What was interesting was the shift in beliefs over policy.

Kerry will have to show a lot of moxie in the coming weeks to get back into this, with Bush's approval rating climbing above 50% again (recent reports show it anywhere from 50-53)

The recent bump in the labor market won't hurt him either, especially with the median salary number continuing to rise (meaning more service positions and fewer new manufacturing ones).

With the expected electoral count if the numbers were held today reading at 280 for Bush, 242 for Kerry, we could run into the opposite situation from last election, where Bush may win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote.

So much hangs on Florida (leaning Bush right now), Ohio (bush), Pennsylvania (Kerry), and California (which has, at 49-45 in favor of Kerry) possibly playing the biggest swing state of all.

[The Korean]

Bush's administration just fucked my medical job in the military. There's nothing he can do to get my vote now.

[peam]

Time also had Kerry up by 12 after the DNC.

[Ravenstorm]

Originally posted by GSTamral
and zogby reports 53-44.

Really.

Doesn't look like 53-44 to me. (http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aVcgwBEfjbnk&refer=top_world _news)

Maybe you'd like to supply a link for once?

Raven

[GSLeloo]

You know what, the polls are bullshit. No one asked me who I was going to vote for, I assume no one asked any of you. So WHO exactly did they poll? A select group of people that mostly agree with them?

[Latrinsorm]

Originally posted by GSLeloo
So WHO exactly did they poll?An anonymous cross-section of America, reflecting every demographic. :saint:

[Straight-up]

How did the Bush administration fuck your job? And why would that affect your vote if Bush is the better person for the job (aside from your job)? I doubt seriously that the administration said "Let's fuck this guy's job"!


Straight

[GSLeloo]

Originally posted by Latrinsorm

Originally posted by GSLeloo
So WHO exactly did they poll?An anonymous cross-section of America, reflecting every demographic. :saint:

How do you know it reflects every demographic? Because they tell you it does?

[longshot]

Originally posted by GSLeloo
You know what, the polls are bullshit. No one asked me who I was going to vote for, I assume no one asked any of you. So WHO exactly did they poll? A select group of people that mostly agree with them?

I'm nauseous just thinking that you have the right to vote.

[GSLeloo]

Why because I'm not automatically accepting that a poll done is totally accurate and not being lead slightly to whichever side that particular group favors? I'd rather question it than blindly accept it.

[The Korean]

Originally posted by Straight-up
How did the Bush administration fuck your job? And why would that affect your vote if Bush is the better person for the job (aside from your job)? I doubt seriously that the administration said "Let's fuck this guy's job"!


Straight

They're cutting military medical (so far Navy that I'm certain of) down, and giving the jobs to civilians. A lot of the tech schools, some really good ones I'd love to go to, are closing down since they're not deployable, and those tech jobs are also going out to civilians. They're attempting to make all of military medical (just Navy I'm certain of now) deployable. The only thing is, there aren't that many billets that deploy, so they have to cut a lot of people. So either they're getting their contracts bought out, or switching rates (jobs).

I had a plan when I enlisted. This just fucked it all up. I had planned to go to X-ray tech school, and become a x-ray technician while I go to college on my spare time when I get out. But since only billets for deploying X-ray techs will be open, and none for shore-based hospitals, I'll have to go through marine training. Only thing is, I'm not allowed back there for another 4 years, because I just went through and they had to drop me for being a heat casualty. Unless I can pull something off, I won't be able to go that route. I NEED to get a tech school before I get out, or the training I currently have will get me shit outside.

But the main reason this pisses me off, for a reason that doesn't affect me, is that for the people who are a few years from retirement, will most likely be the ones who get cut when the time comes for this to come into effect. Which means they won't get their retirement pay, which most have been working hard to get. The adminstration has done all this to save money, and to make medical more deployable. Strangely, they're increasing the medical budget too.

All this is going to do is drop down the number of medical personnel over time, because not many are going to want to be constantly deploying. We're supposed to have a sea/shore rotation, with like 3 years sea/ 3 years shore. With the way it's going to be, it'll be like 2 years sea/ 6mo-1 year shore. Those with families will not be up for this, so they'll probably wait till their enlistment runs out, dropping the reenlistment rates. The enlistment rate into medical will probably drop too.

All in all, I'm not a happy camper.

edited to add source...

I got all this from an article my LT showed me from the washington post

[Edited on 9-4-2004 by The Korean]

[Parkbandit]

Originally posted by Ravenstorm

Originally posted by GSTamral
and zogby reports 53-44.

Really.

Doesn't look like 53-44 to me. (http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aVcgwBEfjbnk&refer=top_world _news)

Maybe you'd like to supply a link for once?

Raven

Hell.. I bet I could find a poll to show that Kerry is actually winning. Did you need that Raven?

Most polls show Bush with a nice bump from the convention.. something Kerry was completely unable to do. Kerry's group claimed 'Hey, we were expecting this because everyone has pretty much decided who they will vote for'.

Maybe they were wrong. Maybe what they really meant is that Kerry sucks as a candidate and did nothing to excite the people of the country.

[Ravenstorm]

Instead of just talking shit PB, why don't you respond to the issue? He quoted the zogby poll as saying one thing. I supplied an actual link showing it wasn't even close to that and asked for where he got his numbers.

In fact, another news article I read stated that almost every poll showed no change except Time's.

Raven

[Parkbandit]

Originally posted by Ravenstorm
Instead of just talking shit PB, why don't you respond to the issue? He quoted the zogby poll as saying one thing. I supplied an actual link showing it wasn't even close to that and asked for where he got his numbers.

In fact, another news article I read stated that almost every poll showed no change except Time's.

Raven

On the NBC Evening news this evening, it was said that Bush was enjoying a very nice bounce in most polls.

Like I said, if you need me to do a search for one showing Kerry is winning.. I can probably (Though it would take some time as he's not).

Point is, Bush is enjoying a lead and it pisses you off (which I enjoy).

[Ravenstorm]

Like I said, the zogby poll Tamral quoted showed nothing of the sort. He has a chance to back up what he claimed. Assuming he didn't just make it up as he went along. Feel free to continue defending him though.

If you want to continue claiming he received a big bump, by all means back it up beyond the Time poll.

Raven

[Latrinsorm]

Originally posted by The Korean
All in all, I'm not a happy camper.Which is fine. But you have to (well, you don't HAVE to, but I think it'd be better if you did) ask yourself: Would Kerry have done anything differently?

[Chelle]

Originally posted by Ravenstorm
Instead of just talking shit PB, why don't you respond to the issue? He quoted the zogby poll as saying one thing. I supplied an actual link showing it wasn't even close to that and asked for where he got his numbers.

In fact, another news article I read stated that almost every poll showed no change except Time's.

Raven


What he could be referring to is the poll that was taken during Bushs speech that evening. It has since changed but not by much.

[Chadj]

PB IS STOOPID KERY IS WINNING

[Faent]

>>How do you know it reflects every demographic? Because they tell you it does? -Leloo

Your skepticism is misplaced.

-Scott

[Ilvane]

Hey Raven, thanks for posting the numbers and your source, I appreciate it.

I'm sure in a week or so, regardless of what the polls say now, he is going to be even with Kerry again.

-A

[Caiylania]

I don't believe in either candidate. Joy.

Personally, party lines make no sense to me. No democrat NEVER EVER EVER agrees with republicans, and no republican NEVER EVER EVER agrees with democrats. I agree with many issues on both sides.

It would be interesting to have a thread, where everyone could only post ONE GOOD thing about the party they are voting against. And not shit like, Bush has a dog. Dogs are cool. But I mean, to look at their policies, and find just that one you actually agree with.

Does anyone ever do that? Or do you all just hate the other regardless?

[Scott]

Originally posted by Ravenstorm

If you want to continue claiming he received a big bump, by all means back it up beyond the Time poll.

Raven

How about the newsweek poll?

[Blazing247]

<Does anyone ever do that? Or do you all just hate the other regardless?>

Yes. I'm a registered Republican, but I don't vote strictly along party lines. I agree with many of Bush's policies, but there are also many I disagree with. He's far from perfect, but he's getting my vote yet again because there aren't any better alternatives.

[Caiylania]

Makes sense. And thats what all voters should do.

I understand voting against someone because you can't stand policy. But a lot of people I talk to strictly vote for party lines, and I'm like....... yer retarded.

I might not agree with the person someone wants to vote for, but as long as they are educated on why they are voting in which direction, then at least its not one more empty headed voter swinging the vote.

Anyway, yall have fun and all. I'm going to bed. It's almost 2am damnit. Ciao!

[Latrinsorm]

Originally posted by Caiylania
No democrat NEVER EVER EVER agrees with republicansWatch out, Zell Miller might want to duel you.

Also, there's not really that much hate going on around here. You just have to avoid some of PB's posts, because he's (and I say this in a completely respectful manner) old and crochety. Lord help you if you step on his lawn. :hippie: