NBA 2013-2014 Preseason Thread

[Latrinsorm]

BASKETBALL

Paul George getting paid (http://www.eightpointsnineseconds.com/2013/09/yahoo-reports-paul-george-pacers-close-to-deal-a-look-at-the-financial-implications/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) for 2014-15 and further. How does that matter for this year? Look at the chart part of the way down. Notice how Granger's number goes to 0? Notice also how they'll be well over the cap? Paul George is 7 years younger than Granger, clearly better, plays the same position, doesn't have Granger's injury history - it makes perfect sense for Indiana to replace him with George, but put yourself in Granger's shoes.

You were the face of the franchise. Even though you never accomplished anything, you were THE GUY in a basketball-crazy town. Paul George is a small forward, and while SF and SG are pretty interchangeable in the modern NBA, the dude is 6'8". He's closer to a true forward than a wing. It was one thing for Granger to be coming off the bench at all, but in what is suddenly an audition year for the other 29 teams? And when the alternative to this combustible situation is to mess with Lance Stephenson's PT?

Also remember that for all their postseason success the Pacers were only a game removed from the #4 seed. The Bulls are almost certain to be better, the Cavaliers have the second most talented roster in the East, the Nets have upside. I wouldn't be at all surprised for the Pacers to finish in the lower half of the playoff bracket, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were unable to duplicate their incredible playoff overperformance from last year. I also wouldn't be surprised if Danny Granger turns out to be a great guy and they get the #1 seed, though.

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Westbrook expected to miss 4-6 weeks (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9754402/russell-westbrook-oklahoma-city-thunder-miss-first-4-6-weeks-regular-season-due-arthroscopic-knee-surgery) of the regular season. I've offered plenty of criticism of Kevin Martin, but I will allow that he is more effective overall than Ryan Gomes. The top 5 seeds in the West were only separated by 4 games last year, and although the Pythagorean system put them 10 games ahead of the Grizzlies, it seems like this plus their treading water roster-wise has put an awful lot of weight on Durant's perennially skinny shoulders.

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The Heat bring back Beasley and add Oden. If they're even a shadow of their upsides there's plenty of room for them on this roster, or the Heat can keep on trotting out James Jones and Joel Anthony. Incredible but true fact: Michael Beasley is as tall as Chris Andersen, and hopefully that's the last time they're mentioned in the same sentence all year because those are two guys who could get up to some hijinx.

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And then I guess something happened with Houston and the Lakers? Eh.

4 weeks left until the NBA!!!

[thefarmer]

And then I guess something happened with Houston and the Lakers? Eh.


The Beard is wounded, sir. Wounded.

[Latrinsorm]

Okay okay, Dwight Howard (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9759569/report-dwight-howard-houston-rockets-beats-james-harden-blind-ft-contest) is shooting free throws with his eyes closed now. My very favorite part of that story, though: "There is a guy who has the world record for most free throws made and he told me to".

1. I mentioned last year how Steve Nash (the greatest shooter who has ever lived) offered to help Dwight with his free throws, and Dwight shot him down.
2. A GUY?!? You don't even call him by name? Near as I can figure he's talking about Ted St. Martin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_St._Martin), which is clearly an alias.
3. If Wikipedia doesn't have you convinced, there's his own site (http://www.sharpshooterfreethrows.com/philosophyofShooting.html). You can also go to the Testimonials section which somehow does not yet include Dwight David Howard.

That aside, though, it does make a lot of sense. Once you've stepped to the line, what's there to look at? The basket's always in the same place. The ball's always the same. I say Godspeed, Dwight!

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LeBron has a lot going on this year.

1. If the Heat reach the Finals, they will become only the fourth team to go to 4 straight Finals: 84-87 Lakers (won 2), 82-85 Celtics (won 2), 57-66 Celtics (won 9).
2. If the Heat win the Finals, they will become only the fifth team to win 3 in a row: 52-54 Lakers, 59-66 Celtics, 91-93 and 96-98 Bulls, 00-02 Lakers.
3. If he wins the MVP, he will join Kareem, Michael, and Wilt as the only men with 5, and will join Russell, Wilt, and Bird as the only men with 3 in a row.
4. If he wins the MVP and the Heat win the Finals, he will join Russell as the only men to do each 3 years in a row.
5. If he wins the MVP convincingly (.816 share or more) he will pass Bird and Kareem and move into 2nd place all time on MVP Award Shares, trailing only Michael Jordan.
6. Finals MVP is kind of a dumb award, but if he wins that he will join Michael, Duncan, Magic, and Shaq as the only men with 3.
7. If he records 30 PER, he will be the only player in NBA history to do so 5 times.

With Westbrook out, Durant might put up enormous numbers for the first ~20 games which combined with voter fatigue could launch himself into pole position for MVP, or the Thunder might struggle in W-L and easily end up finishing 3rd or 4th in the West. The Spurs, Clippers, Grizzlies, Warriors, and Rockets could all catch the Thunder. In the East, the Pacers are the only ones with a legitimate shot, and even they were 17.5 games behind the Heat last year. It would be extremely surprising if the Heat finished 3rd or worse, and it's been 25 years since the MVP came from a 3rd or worse team (and that was Jordan).

[Anebriated]

76ers are going to win it all...










and by that I mean hopefully suck enough to secure a top pick...

[Latrinsorm]

We're all happy Rose is back. Okay. But at the same time, let's not go crazy about the Bulls.

2011 Bulls (yes, it's been that long)
point Rose, C.J. Watson
wing Deng, Bogans, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver
big Boozer, Noah, Taj Gibson, Omer Asik, Kurt Thomas

2014 Bulls
point Rose, Hinrich
wing Deng, Butler, Dahntay Jones? Mike Dunleavy?
big Boozer, Noah, Taj Gibson, Nazr Mohammad? Dexter Pittman?

-Butler is a huge upgrade, Hinrich is an upgrade, everything else looks very shaky.

-Deng and Noah are 28, but they're old 28s with significant injury histories.

-Gibson is a fantastic example why not to get too excited by a young player playing great for a stretch: after a big step forward in 2012 that had his track looking All-Star, he gave it all back in 2013 and is now looking like career bench piece. A fine bench piece, certainly, but a bench piece nonetheless.

-Is Butler going to go that way or continue to mature into an NBA starter?

-Rose won MVP, but is he really that good? We're talking about a shoot first point guard with a catastrophic knee injury, no three point range, and average defense. Certainly he's an improvement over the MASH unit they had last year, but the Bulls were a very distant 5th seed last year: 9 games back of second, 21(!) games back of first. That's a hell of a lot to ask of Derrick Rose on top of making up for the loss of Belinelli and Robinson (9 Win Shares combined) from last year... and the Heat beat the Bulls with Rose in 5 in 2011, when they were playing guys like Mike Bibby and Jamaal Magloire.

I just don't see it.

[Latrinsorm]

Predictions about the regular season standings:

East
Heat
Pacers
Bulls
Knicks
Cavs
Nets
Hawks
Pistons

The Heat are tired and old and need to limit minutes, but that was even more true last year (considering the Olympics) and they still won 66 games. This year they're looking to have + 1/2 year from Andersen, + Udonis Haslem being healthy, + whatever they get from Oden and Beasley. Size is (supposedly) the Heat's biggest weakness, and they're effectively adding 3 NBA caliber bigs, more if Bosh can keep up his preseason / Toronto form. 60 games seems pretty well assured, but here are the last some odd regular season records for teams coming off 3 Finals appearances that were more or less intact (so no '99 Bulls):

2011 Lakers: 57-25
2003 Lakers: 50-32
1994 Bulls: 55-27 (lost Michael, Scottie was pretty good)
1991 Pistons: 50-32
1990 Lakers: 63-19 (lost Kareem, Magic was pretty good)
1988 Celtics: 57-25
1987 Celtics: 59-23, reached but lost Finals
1986 Lakers: 62-20
1985 Lakers: 62-20, reached and won Finals

Only 1 of the 9 won the Finals, but all of them did very well in the regular season. Only the 87 Celtics and 90 Lakers inherited the previous year's MVP before these Heat, and both ended up with the #1 seed in their conference.

The Pacers are drastically better in the bench, but the bench only does so much. The 2013 Pacers got 64% of their minutes from their starters, and while they generated 74% (39.4 of 53.6) of their Win Shares, if their bench was starter quality that only works out to 62 wins. 62 wins is great, but if Miami holds form it's not enough by 4. (And their bench is not starter quality.)

The Bulls I've talked about before, but just to piggyback on the above point: the 2011 and 2012 Bulls' bench was starter quality in Asik and Korver, and Ronnie Brewer is pretty close.

The Cavs and Nets are huge question marks, the Cavs for health and the Nets for converting fantasy to reality. There seems to be a pretty clear break between them (+NY) and the 7+ seeds.

West
Grizzlies
Clippers
Thunder
Spurs
Rockets
Warriors
Nuggets
Mavs

Top 6 seeds might be separated by 6 games. Again, the top 5 seeds last year were only separated by 4 games. The Rockets could get +10 wins from Dwight and still be in the bottom half of the bracket. Suns might lose every game against the West. Can't wait!!

[Gsgeek]

Im insulted my oft injured last year timberwolves are not on your list. You just wait.... and waiit anddddd wait.

You'll see, this year they will be in the playoffs.

[Latrinsorm]

They were my last out. The Mavs were 10 games ahead of the Wolves last year and got better, the Wolves even when healthy haven't made the playoffs. (Free Kevin Love!)

espn news today that Michael Beasley did not punch himself in the face, which... okay. We'll get all the crazy stories out of the way in the preseason. That works.

[Latrinsorm]

espn did it's NBARank thing and continued to refuse to put it in a single easily accessible list, because they are idiots, but here are the top 25:


LeBron James
Kevin Durant
Chris Paul
James Harden
Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry
Dwight Howard
Kyrie Irving
Derrick Rose
Marc Gasol
Kevin Love
Tony Parker
Paul George
Blake Griffin
Carmelo Anthony
Tim Duncan
LaMarcus Aldridge
Dwyane Wade
Al Horford
Deron Williams
John Wall
Roy Hibbert
Joakim Noah
Chris Bosh
Kobe Bryant


Points of interest:

1. Kobe Bryant #25 - I thought I was as critical of Kobe as anyone, but #25??? And that's an average of 215 people! So pretty much a troll.

2. Is Roy Hibbert overrated? We all remember how he was incredible in the playoffs against the Knicks and Heat, but his per-game average over that span was 18 points, 10 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 2.2 turnovers, 4.1(!) fouls, and the same numbers for the regular season were 12, 8, 2.6, 2.1, and 3.5. He was 57th in Win Shares and 82nd in PER out of 469 player-seasons. Chris Bosh meanwhile put up 17, 7, 1.4, 1.7, and 2.3, and was 20th and 30th. Hibbert is certainly a better defender, but is he 5 points, half a possession, and a foul better? Bosh is no slouch.

3. Expounding on that, are the Pacers overrated? What if George, Hibbert, and Stephenson have all hit their ceilings, or even played above their heads in the only 13 games anyone watched of them? Hibbert is only 2 years younger than LeBron, George and Stephenson will both be 23 - not ancient, but not rookies. They played the Heat very close in the playoffs, but were 17 games behind them in the regular season. Which sample is more indicative, the 7 or the 82?

4. Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving are waaaay too high. Prolific scorers who have an aversion to defense and led their team to poor or no playoff seeds, what's the difference between them and Kobe?

5. Brook Lopez is clearly the best player on the Nets. Deron Williams ranked 22nd, Lopez 28th. Whatever. I'm not even mad.

6. Teams with 2 top 25 players: Chicago, Houston, Indiana, Clippers, OKC, San Antonio. Miami has 3.

[Latrinsorm]

Latest issue of Sports Illustrated. I'll admit, I can understand the attraction to the Nets. They just look cool. The black and white unis, Jason Kidd cleans up, Paul Pierce makes everything cooler.

But basketball is not a photoshoot. That unit would be lethal on offense if every single player is happy taking less shots: last year they averaged 98.0 uses per 36 minutes, or a 131 pace. The highest pace since the merger was 1991 Denver's 113.7. Brooklyn's last year was 88.8, so we expect each player to take 68% as many touches per minute, and that's on top of whatever minutes reduction they need to fit in their high-powered (and high-expectation) bench: Kirilenko didn't sign on to play 10 minutes a game.

More importantly, what about defense? 2013 Kevin Garnett isn't chasing Shane Battier around. 2001 Kevin Garnett wouldn't let Battier get off a shot, but that was then and this is now. Brook Lopez sure as hell isn't chasing anyone around. We've seen this movie before in the 2012 Finals. Ibaka and Perkins got lit up, and while unlike them Garnett and Lopez will at least get 2s back, you can't beat 3s with 2s. Pierce and Johnson are a really fascinating case study in position designation: Pierce is a small forward and Johnson is a shooting guard, right? Pierce is 6'6", Johnson is 6'8". 15% of Pierce's rebounds are offensive, 25% of Johnson's are. (That Pierce has dramatically more rebounds overall just indicates Pierce is a fine SG rebounder and Johnson is a crummy SF rebounder.) They each shoot 37% from 3. Is it even a cross-match, or would most teams just put their SG on Pierce and SF on Johnson assuming equal defensive ability and offensive responsibility? And Deron Williams is a fat NBA player. Need I say more?

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But enough with the cover, it was one ranking in particular that shot my eyebrows off my head like meticulously groomed fireworks. SI picks Memphis to finish 9th in the Western Conference, behind (in order) the Clippers, Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, Warriors, Lakers (brb rolling my eyes out of my head), Mavericks, Timberwolves. I can understand being doubtful about the Cavs, their 3 best players in Irving Varejao Bynum are notoriously injury-prone. But why the Memphis hate? They lost nobody and added Mike Miller who could roll out of bed on Christmas morning and drain spot-up 3s. They were only a 5 seed last year but they were only 4 games out of the 1 seed, and they were 13 games ahead of the 9 seed. I just don't get it.

[Latrinsorm]

Fascinating anonymous poll of 26 NBA players (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9830454/nba-players-want-michael-jordan-take-last-shot-not-lebron-james-espn-magazine) from espn. Thoughts:

1. It never ceases to annoy me how "take the last shot" has become basketball relevant. How about "run the last play"?
2. 4 players think Kobe Bryant is the best player in the NBA to guard LeBron. Players can be dopes.
3. The top 10 in p/r/a/s/b prediction. Not a chance. Consider that LeBron has played 10 years and 30k minutes (itself an incredible stat), and even if he plays another 10 and 30k with no slippage (absolutely impossible) he would end up:
60,748 minutes (#1 by about 3k)
42,162 points (#1 by about 3k)
11,106 rebounds (#27)
10,604 assists (#3)
1,298 blocks (#45)
2,646 steals (#3)
...and that's additionally all assuming that no one moves up the chart from now to then. There's just no way. He stands a better chance of matching Russell's rings, that's at least arithmetically possible.

That 30k in 10 stat got me wondering how common that is, so I looked it up:
LeBron 2004-2013 (only needs 2748 to keep it going next year, which is plausible, but if that's all he gets he needs 3388 the next year, which is not)
Garnett 1997-2007 (2)
Payton 1994-2005 (3)
Karl Malone 1986-1999 (5)
Hayes 1968-1983 (7)
Kareem 1973-1982 (4)
Havlicek 1965-1978 (5)
Oscar 1960-1974 (6)
Chamberlain 1959-1973 (6) (and his first year was 1960)
Jerry Lucas 1964-1973
Walt Bellamy 1962-1972 (2)
Hal Greer 1962-1971
Russell 1957-1970 (5) (and he only played until 1969)

To me the most impressive entry is Payton. Everyone else is a SF or larger for their era except Hal Greer, and he only did it once, big deal, plus Payton had a lockout year in the middle. Russell is also impressive because the NBA played fewer games on purpose in those early years: 72, 75, 79, and then 80s until '67 (81) and '68 (82), and while they also only played 2 rounds in the playoffs for most of that stretch Russell tended to be in both while Payton tended... not to. The really impressive one from that perspective is LeBron, whose teams averaged 2.5 rounds a year, plus 3 Olympics. (Payton had 2, Russell had 1 but before his streak started, obviously.)

[Latrinsorm]

Can LeBron and Wade still coexist blah blah blah from espn (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9824938/how-lebron-james-dwyane-wade-coexist-heat-espn-magazine), but a new wrinkle I hadn't thought of courtesy of Sam Smith:

""Scottie came second and never had to step back to accommodate Michael, and Michael never accommodated anyone. Wade had been a better player than LeBron, more celebrated and more successful. When they came together, Wade really had to step back."

The first reaction is to think that's clearly, clearly wrong, but let's look at the stats. They came in the league the same year (2004) and joined in Miami in 2011, so our sample is 2004-2010:

Better
LeBron
27.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists per game
26.9 PER, 103.3 WS, .224 WS/48

Wade
25.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 6.6 assists per game
25.7 PER, 69.8 WS, .189 WS/48

Celebration
LeBron
Rookie of the Year
2 MVPs, 3.071 cumulative share
7 All-Stars
4 All-NBA 1st, 2 All-NBA 2nd

Wade
0 MVPs, 0.765 cumulative share
6 All-Stars
2 All-NBA 1st, 2 All-NBA 2nd, 1 All-NBA 3rd

Success
LeBron
349 team wins
won 8 of 13 playoff rounds
1 Finals appearance, team lost

Wade
302 team wins
won 7 of 12 playoff rounds
1 Finals appearance, team won, Finals MVP

.

It seems to me that LeBron is better, clearly more celebrated, and success is a push or at worst a slight loss. The only thing I can figure is Mr. Smith watched from 2004 to 2006 and then had a nap until 2011. All that being said, it is an interesting angle to compare with the Michael/Scottie partnership, especially as it pertains to Harden/Howard and if Jalen Rose is right the future Durant/Harden/Howard, although frankly I think Durant will be so happy to get away from Westbrook he won't even care.

[Keller]

http://i.imgur.com/JE72v.gif

[Keller]

Rose won MVP, but is he really that good?

Yes. Rose will be the MVP this year. He is that good.

[WRoss]

Yes. Rose will be the MVP this year. He is that good.

Provided he stays healthy. I've been to two playoffs without him and am hoping to see him in it this year.

[Latrinsorm]

I think those whomsoever-they-may-bes will be reminded of the 2011 play-offs where the Rosey Bulls were espanked in 5 by the Heatles of Žydrūnas and Bibby.

20 points and 10 assists is very appealing to the rondo of Rondo, but Rose actually peaked at 25 and 7 (30 total player-seasons, incl. 6 James and 1 Rose is a rose is a rose) while The Bron peaked at 26 8 and 7 (10 seasons incl. 0 Rosey you're alright) (you wear my ring).

Need I remind the gallery that Keller (if that is his real name) lost to Drew? Shantih, shantih, shantih.

[Keller]

Keller said the Pacers, who no one gave a chance, would beat the Heat. They almost did. That prediction was nearly as prescient as my Rose prediction, which will come to be.

[RichardCranium]

Pelicans.

[Latrinsorm]

Keller said the Pacers, who no one gave a chance, would beat the Heat. They almost did. That prediction was nearly as prescient as my Rose prediction, which will come to be.You forget Anticor's loosey goosey discretion? YOU DARE?

[Keller]

You forget Anticor's loosey goosey discretion? YOU DARE?

Huh? Latrin is drunk.

[Latrinsorm]

What if Paul George gets better? What if Hibbert gets better?

What if Jimmy Butler gets better? What if Rose is not only back but better than ever?

What if Blake and DeAndre get better?

What if Kawhi Leonard gets better?

What if Deron Williams gets better?

What if Durant gets better?

.

What if LeBron gets better?

[Latrinsorm]

But let's suppose the Heat don't win. How's this for a trade scenario?

Chris Bosh to the Rockets
Jamal Crawford, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan to the Heat (34.5m)
Omer Asik (14.9), LeBron James to the Clippers

This lets LeBron opt out of his 2 year 43 remaining and sign for up to 19.6 (± whatever wiggle room the trade has) for up to 4 years, or in all probability take less so that the Clippers can add one more guy. Their rotation pieces with that trade would be:

point Chris Paul
wing LeBron, Redick, Dudley, Barnes
big Asik

They would need another big, but that core can absolutely get it done.

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Why would the Clippers do it? LeBron.

Why would the Rockets do it? Asik and Howard can't play together, they've got to unload Asik somewhere. Bosh is a stretch 4 and he can very clearly handle being the third option on offense, plus he grew up in Texas.

Why would the Heat do it? Wade has to stay a Heat. Griffin gives them a young star to rebuild around. Jordan will be an expiring contract, giving them in the absolute worst case some much needed cap relief for 2016.

Why would LeBron do it? Pretty soon he's going to slow down, but he's always going to be terrifyingly strong. He can post-up forever, he can spot-up forever, especially if he has Chris Paul setting him up... Chris Paul, with whom he has been friends since they were eight years old (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1828847-lebron-james-discusses-his-place-in-evolving-nba-on-eve-of-11th-season). He goes to LA and doesn't have to put up with Kobe. He plays for Doc. He's already used to playing for a psychotic owner from his time in Cleveland. An elite big man defender vastly reduces the energy he has to expend on the defensive end, an elite point player vastly reduces the energy he has to expend playmaking.

[Keller]

Heat give up James and Bosh for Blake Griffin and garbage?

[Latrinsorm]

Same reason the Cavs gave up James for two 1st and two 2nd round picks: he's leaving anyway (in this hypothetical scenario), may as well get something for him.