Latrinsorm
09-21-2013, 01:15 PM
Everyone knows Kobe has a below average FG%, but this is not uncommon for perimeter players. If we go to this site (http://hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Kobe+Bryant), however, we can get shot locations going back to 2007 for Kobe (and elsewhere on the site for the league as a whole). The totals look like this:
At rim: 1549 for 2394: 64.7% ± 2.0%
3-9 feet: 561 for 1179: 47.6% ± 2.9%
10-15 feet: 738 for 1557: 47.5% ± 2.5%
16-23 feet: 1432 for 3534: 40.5% ± 1.7%
3pt: 838 for 2495: 33.6% ± 1.9%
League
At rim: 262532 for 423214: 62.0% ± 0.1%
3-9 feet: 64529 for 157480: 41.0% ± 0.2%
10-15 feet: 47122 for 119670: 39.4% ± 0.3%
16-23 feet: 134787 for 341167: 39.5% ± 0.2%
3pt: 109406 for 305195: 35.8% ± 0.2%
Which is a lot of numbers, so let's look at it graphically:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v456/johnnyoldschool/NBAKobeShooter1_zpse8796f93.jpg
We can say that in a statistically significant sense, Kobe Bryant is better than the NBA average all the way from the rim to 15 feet, average at 16-23 feet, and below average from 3. This surprised me, because anecdotally the difficult shots Kobe takes tend to be after he's had a drive stuffed, picked up his dribble, jab, jab, crazy twisting off-balance long 2. I've criticized his 3 point shooting before but this is very stark. It makes me wonder if it's a strength issue more than a shot selection issue.
And obviously it wouldn't be an NBA post from me unless we talked about LeBron, so here's how he stacks up over the same time period:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v456/johnnyoldschool/NBAKobeShooter2_zps030fdbbc.jpg
LeBron totally revamped his three point game last year, but that still leaves 88% of his attempts in the old Cleveland-style awful isolation 3s system. It's pretty unfathomable that LeBron (can't shoot) would be NBA-average while Kobe (best shooter) would be below average, unless again we're looking at primarily a strength issue. I don't think anyone would argue that Kobe is physically stronger than LeBron. There's an argument to be had pound-for-pound, but they don't give lighter guys WNBA balls so it's not relevant to the question at hand.
Going back to the shot selection issue, the only available objective metric we have is % of baskets assisted, which also paints a very very interesting picture:
Location Kobe LeBron
At rim.... 36.9% 41.6%
3-9 feet.. 29.9% 24.3%
10-15 feet 26.3% 17.2%
16-23 feet 35.7% 23.4%
3pt....... 64.4% 46.2%
Kobe has had a far easier time getting teammates to help him, especially from long range, which paints all the excruciating isolations he insists on in an even worse light. The overall %Ast rates are 38.8% for Kobe, 35.4% for LeBron.
.
In conclusion: Kobe is an average to below-average shooter from long range and an above average shooter from 15 feet and in. LeBron is a terrifying force at the rim, above average out to 9 feet, and average from there to the parking lot.
At rim: 1549 for 2394: 64.7% ± 2.0%
3-9 feet: 561 for 1179: 47.6% ± 2.9%
10-15 feet: 738 for 1557: 47.5% ± 2.5%
16-23 feet: 1432 for 3534: 40.5% ± 1.7%
3pt: 838 for 2495: 33.6% ± 1.9%
League
At rim: 262532 for 423214: 62.0% ± 0.1%
3-9 feet: 64529 for 157480: 41.0% ± 0.2%
10-15 feet: 47122 for 119670: 39.4% ± 0.3%
16-23 feet: 134787 for 341167: 39.5% ± 0.2%
3pt: 109406 for 305195: 35.8% ± 0.2%
Which is a lot of numbers, so let's look at it graphically:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v456/johnnyoldschool/NBAKobeShooter1_zpse8796f93.jpg
We can say that in a statistically significant sense, Kobe Bryant is better than the NBA average all the way from the rim to 15 feet, average at 16-23 feet, and below average from 3. This surprised me, because anecdotally the difficult shots Kobe takes tend to be after he's had a drive stuffed, picked up his dribble, jab, jab, crazy twisting off-balance long 2. I've criticized his 3 point shooting before but this is very stark. It makes me wonder if it's a strength issue more than a shot selection issue.
And obviously it wouldn't be an NBA post from me unless we talked about LeBron, so here's how he stacks up over the same time period:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v456/johnnyoldschool/NBAKobeShooter2_zps030fdbbc.jpg
LeBron totally revamped his three point game last year, but that still leaves 88% of his attempts in the old Cleveland-style awful isolation 3s system. It's pretty unfathomable that LeBron (can't shoot) would be NBA-average while Kobe (best shooter) would be below average, unless again we're looking at primarily a strength issue. I don't think anyone would argue that Kobe is physically stronger than LeBron. There's an argument to be had pound-for-pound, but they don't give lighter guys WNBA balls so it's not relevant to the question at hand.
Going back to the shot selection issue, the only available objective metric we have is % of baskets assisted, which also paints a very very interesting picture:
Location Kobe LeBron
At rim.... 36.9% 41.6%
3-9 feet.. 29.9% 24.3%
10-15 feet 26.3% 17.2%
16-23 feet 35.7% 23.4%
3pt....... 64.4% 46.2%
Kobe has had a far easier time getting teammates to help him, especially from long range, which paints all the excruciating isolations he insists on in an even worse light. The overall %Ast rates are 38.8% for Kobe, 35.4% for LeBron.
.
In conclusion: Kobe is an average to below-average shooter from long range and an above average shooter from 15 feet and in. LeBron is a terrifying force at the rim, above average out to 9 feet, and average from there to the parking lot.