NBA Offseason 2013 [Archive] - The Gemstone IV Players' Corner

Latrinsorm

06-22-2013, 06:54 PM

Is looking very, very interesting.

Marquee free agents
Josh Smith
Andre Iguodala
David West
Chris Paul
Dwight Howard
Andrew Bynum

Middle tier
O.J. Mayo
Jarrett Jack
Chris Andersen
Monta Ellis
J.J. Redick
J.R. Smith
Kevin Martin
Manu Ginobili
Al Jefferson

Shooter types (just like relief pitching, everyone needs more shooting)
Kyle Korver
Wayne Ellington
Corey Brewer
Jose Calderon
Austin Daye
Ray Allen (option)

There are some other name players that are restricted free agents, but the kind of offer it would take to pry them away from their teams would ruin the signer anyway, so I ignored them. Interesting to me is how many names are in that middle tier that are either going to be quality contributors or horrendously overpaid. For instance, everyone loves Birdman, but he plays 15 minutes a game and is 34. I don't doubt for a second some team is going to throw in the high millions at him, and I really hope he sticks with Miami, but if that's the price tag I wish him well in his next destination.

The cap is about $58m, here are the teams under that with their current space for next year:

Philadelphia (12)
Clippers (13)
San Antonio(!!!) (16)
Dallas (10)
Minnesota (11)
Cleveland (25)
Detroit (23)
Atlanta (40) (!!)
Utah (32)
New Orleans (23)
Milwaukee (27)
Phoenix (5)
Charlotte (18)
Sacramento (17)
Houston(!) (20)

A team doesn't need cap space to sign anyone, but it sure is handy. Also looming of course is the Summer of LeBron II (the ReDecisioning) next year. Next post gonna run through teams and what I think their needs and good fits are. Last year (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?73282-NBA-Offseason!!!) I was 100% right about Ray Allen until he got those motherf***ing cords out of there, so overall I was about 20% right on him.

thefarmer

06-22-2013, 07:11 PM

I still don't want Howard. Even though he would bring a decent interior defense to a virtually defenseless team, though Asik is learning slowly how to defend the paint. I'd rather break the bank for Marc Gasol :(

I guess I'd take Chris Paul, but I think his stick-up-the-butt approach would kill the (successful so far) chemistry Houston has currently.

Latrinsorm

06-22-2013, 07:58 PM

EAST

Heat
Are awesome. LeBron is awesome. Wade's knee required eight hours of therapy (http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/9412923/dwyane-wade-miami-heat-needed-knee-drained-play-game-7-finals) before game 7... and that was his left knee, not the one that's been injured for months. That's a little disconcerting. Allen took less money to come here, it stands to reason he'll pick up his option for less and stay here. One of my biggest concerns last year was whether he was willing to embrace a bench role, and he obviously had no problem with that (keeping in mind that winning has a way of mitigating those concerns). He can't get any worse on defense, and he'll be able to shoot until he's in his 50s, so alright.

The amnesty provision is very very interesting. Everyone talks about Miller, but Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem are also eligible. They're not going to amnesty Haslem under any circumstances, but Joel Anthony played 71 minutes in the playoffs while Miller started 5 games. Miller also plays shooting guard, and if Miami wants to rest Wade at every opportunity next season they need someone more than Ray Allen at SG.

Only 3 teams have ever made 4+ straight Finals: 84-87 Celtics (2 for 4), 82-85 Lakers (2 for 4), 57-66 Celtics (9 for 10). You could look at that and say take next year off a la 2003 Lakers, then load up and go for it in 2004... but of course the Lakers didn't win it in 2004, and if not for a miracle Pau Gasol trade could very easily have been ringless since. The Heat are one weird LeBron collision from a torn ACL and the window slammed shut, I say swing for the fences. Flags fly forever.

Pacers
Emerged as the obvious threat to the Heat in the East, but let's not get carried away. As I've whined about multiple times, Granger coming back is not necessarily even a net positive for them. They were a team with mediocre 3 point shooting and point play, and while the players are out there to address those glaring faults, that doesn't mean they're going to sign with the Pacers. They'll have a little cap space, but not a ton. You can't win a title going 6 deep, their only options are to turn Granger into usable parts or not sign West and use that space on usable parts. West was very good for them this year, but is 32 and has had injury problems.

You could say that their series went 7 with Miami, therefore it could just as easily have gone to Indiana, therefore run it back and try again, but two things:

1. It was an unusually good series for the Pacers and an unusually bad one for Miami. Miami was +.049 on 3P% in the regular season and only +.002 in the Conference Finals; Miami was +.005 in FT/FGA in the season and -.029 in the Conference Finals. Such dramatic cold and hot streaks are not likely to be repeated. Some of it is matchup, but some of it is just small sample.

2. The Spurs would have obliterated the Pacers. Beating Miami is extremely important for any East team, but winning a championship has to be the ultimate goal.

Bulls
Derrick Rose is a lot like Tony Parker - amazing to watch, but secretly a defensive liability and overall not as big a contributor as you remember. Thibs is a great coach but notoriously loads up his players' minutes. Coincidentally, Deng and Noah are falling apart. Gibson gives you 20 fine minutes a game, but that's still only 20 minutes. Butler's stats scaled very well with increased minutes, and while 13 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists doesn't sound incredible, only 11 players pulled it off last season. If he can be their 4th best player, that would be great. Everybody hates Boozer.

Their roster is very thin as currently constituted, with only 8 players under contract (assuming they let Hamilton go after playing him 47 seconds all playoffs) but already being $10m over:
Rose, Teague
Hinrich
Deng, Butler
Boozer, Gibson
Noah
There are a lot of holes there. Like the Pacers, I think they have to turn Boozer into pieces, and real pieces, not Vlad Radmanovic and Daequan Cook.

Knicks
Not a threat. JR Smith is not picking up his option, paying him will result in them being massively over the cap. They somehow still haven't figured out how to play Amare and Carmelo together. Their coaching is going to take a major hit with Kidd moving to the Nets. Rapidly aging. Carmelo has never been that good.

Nets
Not a threat. Atlanta Hawks all over again, perennial second round losers. Way over the cap. Could make a trade, but hard to imagine anyone would want those bloated contracts back: Wallace, Johnson both under contract until 2016, Williams until 2017. Lopez is their only good value player, and no one on the market represents a major upgrade over him.

Hawks
Who knows. They've got Al Horford, Lou Williams, and 40 million dollars burning a hole in their pocket. I would stay away from Dwight Howard, I don't see how he gets you past Miami or even Indiana. Maybe something like Paul, Iguodala, Redick, Korver, Brewer. Both Paul and Iguodala have shown a willingness to take less money. The other three are complementary pieces, hopefully would be willing to be paid as such, and give them 3s and defense on the wings. I would definitely take that team seriously as a threat to Miami.

The other possibility is they pull a Dallas 2013 and load up on expirings for next year and LeBron, but I think the options they have now are better. You can't just throw LeBron in a vacuum and win, especially as he continues to age out of his athletic prime.

Cavaliers
It would be easier to take them seriously if their owner wasn't a clown and they didn't play in Cleveland, but they do have a promising nucleus and plenty of cap space, which is more than anyone else in the East can say.

SHAFT

06-22-2013, 08:40 PM

How exactly was the pau gasol trade a miracle? Didn't the grizzlies also get Marc gasol in that trade? Also, if you say west had anything to do with it you're wrong.

thefarmer

06-22-2013, 08:47 PM

I'm still amazed Kidd got the job. (not really)

Such a horrible choice.

Latrinsorm

06-22-2013, 09:06 PM

Latrinsorm

06-22-2013, 10:48 PM

Jason Kidd is the 300th head coach in NBA history, which really really seems impossible, but there have been 1304 head coaching jobs from 1947 to 2013, which makes the average head coach tenure a little over 4 years, which sounds right.

SHAFT

06-22-2013, 11:06 PM

Marc Gasol turned out to be a great player, but the Grizzlies had no idea that was going to happen. If they had, they would have just drafted him in 2007 instead of Mike Conley. Chris Wallace also described the trade as including "a player we like in Javaris Crittendon (sic)", who would go on to play 7 games for the Grizzlies before getting traded for a pick, drawing down on Agent Zero, and washing out of the league. He didn't say "a future All-Star and DPOY in Marc Gasol". They signed him for $3m a year, the coach at the time summed up his expectations by saying "We're going to be very patient with his progress". It's a fantasy that they knew he would be this good all along, and that's what makes it a miracle trade: the Grizzlies traded an All-Star for what they thought was an expiring contract and picks. Every time has an expiring contract and picks, the Lakers were lucky to walk into it.

But they also cleared the cap space to sign Randolph and Gasol. They're still surviving off of that trade. One could say they wouldn't be who they are today if they had kept Pau.

It irritates me when people claim Jerry West gifted the Lakers Pau Gasol or the Lakers fleeced the Grizzlies. I'm certainly not claiming you're doing either by the way Latrin. Jerry West wasn't even the GM. And why in the fuck would he care about what happens to the Lakers if he is being paid by the Grizzlies?

Judging a trade in any sport immediately after it occurs is pointless. It's like grading drafts 2 days after the draft is done. Every year ESPN or SI will have grade drafts for every team in the NFL. How in the fuck do they know who will pan out and who won't? People buy into it I suppose.

SHAFT

06-22-2013, 11:28 PM

As a Lakers fan, I hope they bring in Phil Jackson after this upcoming year to entice Lebron. The only person currently on their payroll for 2014 is Steve Nash. Kobe, Pau, everyone but Nash will be off the books in 14.

If they sign Howard, which I hope they don't, he'll also be on the books. I'm still hoping they work out a deal with GS or LAC for a sign-and-trade. I'd rather have Griffin/Bledsoe or C. Thompsen/whoever rather than Howard. He has the mental acuity of a 7th grader.

Latrinsorm

06-22-2013, 11:53 PM

But they also cleared the cap space to sign Randolph and Gasol. They're still surviving off of that trade. One could say they wouldn't be who they are today if they had kept Pau.

It irritates me when people claim Jerry West gifted the Lakers Pau Gasol or the Lakers fleeced the Grizzlies. I'm certainly not claiming you're doing either by the way Latrin. Jerry West wasn't even the GM. And why in the fuck would he care about what happens to the Lakers if he is being paid by the Grizzlies?

Judging a trade in any sport immediately after it occurs is pointless. It's like grading drafts 2 days after the draft is done. Every year ESPN or SI will have grade drafts for every team in the NFL. How in the fuck do they know who will pan out and who won't? People buy into it I suppose.Drafts are different because you're not competing with anyone else to sign a player, that's the whole point of having a draft (and Rani I think recently argued that this is precisely why they should be abolished, but that's getting afield). The Grizzlies were looking to make space for sure, but again every team could offer them what the Lakers offered them: expiring and picks. They had a 1 in 29 shot or so, and it came through.

I don't think it was a conspiracy on Jerry West's part, I'm just pointing out that the Lakers were lucky to be the dance partner for that particular fire sale, and the Grizzlies were also lucky that Marc turned out to be Marc instead of a 7 foot Crittenton.
As a Lakers fan, I hope they bring in Phil Jackson after this upcoming year to entice Lebron. The only person currently on their payroll for 2014 is Steve Nash. Kobe, Pau, everyone but Nash will be off the books in 14.

If they sign Howard, which I hope they don't, he'll also be on the books. I'm still hoping they work out a deal with GS or LAC for a sign-and-trade. I'd rather have Griffin/Bledsoe or C. Thompsen/whoever rather than Howard. He has the mental acuity of a 7th grader.I think it would be very, very hard to convince LeBron to go to a third team, and I think it will be very, very hard to have a supporting cast built up ready for him to thrive in in the short window of dominance he has left. He'll easily have 32k regular season minutes and 6k playoff minutes after next season, only 98 and 21 players have had that in a career respectively. It's a lot of mileage even for a cyborg, especially given how much he does on both ends compared to for instance Horace Grant, and he's made comments about wanting to play even more Olympic basketball.

Plus we all know Pat Riley is the devil, and you don't make deals with the devil and just walk away.

SHAFT

06-23-2013, 01:00 PM

I agree that it'll be tough for him to leave Miami. I can't imagine he wants to be seen as a guy who bounced from team to team to win championships.

Even still, there'll be a lot of good free agents in 2014 and the lakers will have a ton of cap space.

Latrinsorm

06-23-2013, 04:04 PM

WEST

Thunder
It's weird to say, but are they already not the favorite next year for the West? They were the #1 seed this year, but only 4 games separated the 1 through 5 seeds. They're already over the cap for next year, which is without bringing Martin back. They should be able to bring Brewer back for cheap, and they're smart enough to do so, and that gives them a decent 9 man rotation. What they could really use is a guy with shooting guard size (say about 6'5") but also a good playmaker (say about 5 or 6 assists per game) so Westbrook can fall into a more natural shooting guard role without compromising the defense. If he could be a good shooter (say about 36% from 3) all the better, and Kevin Durant's beard game is just embarrassing, so someone with a fabulous beard would be great.

They were the only team in the NBA with a top 5 offense and defense in the regular season, better than Miami's at both ends, but it's not clear how sustainable that was. They got career 3P% years from Durant, Westbrook, Martin, and Sefolosha. It's very, very clear in watching them that this was not the product of an ingenious offensive system. We talk about regression to the mean a lot, let's look at just Durant's shooting: 139 for 334 for 41.6%, which is very, very good. The only primary scorer in the league who made as many with as good a percentage was Steph Curry (obviously), and even among spot-up shooters only Allen, Novak, Martin, and Green can make that claim. Very good company... but what would a scientist describe that percentage as? 139 makes ± 18, or ± 5%, or ± 54 points on the season, or enough to bump their ORtg from 112.4 to 111.7. And that's just Durant. I'm not saying he's not really a good shooter, obviously he is, I'm just saying that sometimes the ball doesn't go in. Not because he's tired from carrying the load (although he is), not because he's frustrated with Westbrook being Westbrook (although he is), just because that's the way the dice fell.

There's also the issue of coaching. Everyone (justifiably) gets tired of Spoelstra's catch-phrase-itis, but the guy has been demonstrably unafraid of adjustments, and has been demonstrably good at making them. Udonis Haslem is at least the second most respected Heat and might even be ahead of Wade in the eyes of the coaching staff, and he played a combined 2 minutes in games 6 and 7 of the Finals. Pop and Spo played an absolutely fascinating game of lineup chess, except the kind of chess where you can change pieces into other pieces, so I guess not like chess at all (three bishop lineup?). The point is: last year, Spo started Battier and Brooks never adjusted. Whether through lack of imagination or lack of authority, Brooks has yet to introduce a real offensive system. As LeBron can tell you, transcendent talent only goes so far.

On the other hand, the GM side has shown no fear whatsoever to make big moves, for better or worse. There's no telling how the Thunder will look come next April, but as constituted I don't see how they're going to win a championship.

Spurs
Who knows. Is Duncan going to retire? Is Ginobili coming back, both on the roster and on the court? Neal and Splitter are RFAs, I don't think they need to bring either back. They are currently $17m under the cap, and could absolutely make a run at any of the huge names. What about Chris Paul and Tony Parker sharing the floor? Pop absolutely has the stones to run a two point lineup, and Parker has never really been a true point guard anyway. Even if this is Leonard's/Green's ceiling, it's pretty good. If anyone could get in Dwight/Bynum's head and fix it, it's the Spurs, right? You can't envision homages to those commercials with Duncan and Robinson?

Nuggets and Clippers
Both teams that seemed poised to compete but lost in the first round and are now in major, major flux. The Nuggets were one piece away, but now they've lost their coach, GM, and possibly Andre Iguodala, while still being at or above the cap. The Clippers currently have Griffin, Jordan, Butler, Crawford, Bledsoe, and if they want Green under contract, no coach, and a really pathetic level of discretion. There's a long, long way to go from that to being a contender. I love Garnett and I love Pierce, but they're past the point of being cornerstones. Even if the Clippers lost 0 players, they couldn't win with that roster.

Grizzlies
The series with San Antonio was closer than the 4-0 indicates. Remember that the Grizzlies in the 4th quarter of game 2 went 21-9 to force overtime, and game 3 went overtime as well. Any game that ends exactly equal after 48 minutes could very, very, very easily have gone another way, and we could be talking about how the Grizzlies pushed the mighty Spurs to 6 the same way we talk about the Pacers pushing the back to back NBA Champion Heat to 7 games. They've got very much the same strengths and weaknesses as Indiana: bruising defense, uncertain point play, very questionable three point shooting. Unlike the Pacers, they've got some very interesting young pieces that they could use to bring in useful assets: Ed Davis under contract and Austin Daye RFA. A head coaching vacancy is not a great thing, but compared to the uncertainty surrounding the Nuggets and Clippers the Grizzlies are in great shape.

Warriors
They still have Jefferson and Biedrins for $20m, which... yuck. But this is the last year, and they have Lee, Curry, Barnes, and Thompson under contract for 2015, and they might be able to sucker someone into taking on what are now expiring contracts? I think 2015 is the year for them to make a big move. We were just talking about LeBron, and this might be the place (that won't happen, but still). A starting lineup of Curry, Thompson, Barnes, LeBron, and Lee might be the most entertaining offensive lineup of all time. LeBron will absolutely take less than max, giving them more than enough room to get a max player this year or next. The defense would be comical, but I can't think of anyone else who could offer the package of young blood. We know LeBron appreciates history, and the Warriors are an Original 8 franchise that has gone a long time without success (2 championships in 64 years, somehow neither with Wilt), and they have a famously good home crowd. Maybe...

Rockets
If Miami has taught us anything, it's that you don't need a true center to succeed in today's NBA. They get Chris Paul, they're immediately a contender. They're also in a fairly unique salary situation: 7 players under contract, 8(!) guys with team options. How's this for a rotation:

Paul, Beverly
Harden, Lin
Parsons, Robinson
???, Motiejunas
Asik

That can get a lot done in the modern NBA... depending on the ???. Because of the double poison pill offers, their cap flexibility goes right in the trash next year, but like the Warriors they might be able to get some mileage out of Lin as an expiring. No matter what else happens, having two really really good perimeter players is a strong formula for success.

Timberwolves
If they resign Pekovic and can ever get healthy, watch out. They should have a little room even with singing Pek, but even in their best case scenario it's hard to imagine going from 12 seed to contender in one season.

SHAFT

06-23-2013, 04:25 PM

Teams with elite point guards don't win championships. I like Christ Paul, but having him on your team doesn't help much if history is an indicator. Tony Parker is really the only dominate point guard since Isaiah to win titles. It's been prolific wingmen and dominate centers for the last 20 years.

Latrinsorm

06-23-2013, 04:58 PM

Then again, Stock got to the Finals twice, Iverson once, Kidd twice (as JASON KIDD), and you can't win a championship without getting to the Finals. I would also say Paul is a lot closer to Stockton than Howard is to Shaq or Duncan.

Latrinsorm

06-26-2013, 06:53 PM

Doc Rivers (finally) in as Clips coach. I don't understand how this ensures Chris Paul will stay (as many have declared) and I really don't understand how the league is allowed to forbid (https://twitter.com/KBergCBS/status/349633300039610368) the Celtics and Clippers from trading with each other for a season.

Brian Shaw in as coach of the Nuggets. Everybody loves him so he'll probably be okay.

Larry Bird walking through that door in Indiana. He drafted Granger, so I can only assume this makes it more likely they keep him, which is great news for the Heat.

Mario Chalmers option picked up, Riley and Arison verbally on board with spending $100m+ with taxes to keep the band together, which is more great news for the Heat.

SHAFT

06-26-2013, 07:15 PM

For some reason it was written in rivers contract that they wouldn't be allowed to trade with the celtics. The league probably insisted on it being written in.

thefarmer

06-26-2013, 08:32 PM

For some reason it was written in rivers contract that they wouldn't be allowed to trade with the celtics. The league probably insisted on it being written in.

It's that vague 'you can't do separate trades contingent on another separate trade'. Something something.

Ardwen

06-26-2013, 08:39 PM

You cant trade a coach for players, they added the stipulation to prevent them from trading Garnett in a separate deal

thefarmer

06-26-2013, 08:42 PM

Yeah. What Ardwen said. I'm too tired and forgot coach.

Latrinsorm

06-27-2013, 07:15 PM

Shucks howdy, Dwight wants out (http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/9427945/los-angeles-lakers-not-likely-re-sign-dwight-howard-sources-say)!

Kobe has done a lot of great things. But this part of his character can't be ignored:

"Howard also does not want to be second fiddle to Bryant for several more seasons. ... Howard likes the idea of being the top superstar of a franchise and with Dirk Nowitzki aging, Dallas would be viewed as Howard's team."

Nowitzki will be 35 this season, his 16th in the NBA, just under 40k minutes played regular season, 5.3k playoffs.
Kobe will be 35 this season, his 18th in the NBA, 45k and 8.6k minutes played.

Dirk's usage rate last season: 22.3
Kobe's: 31.9

How many guys does Kobe have to chase out of LA before we can all agree he's a team killer? How can we not talk about that when comparing him to other potential all-time greats? Guys came to play with LeBron, Hakeem, Bird. Guys can't get away from Kobe fast enough.

.

Dwight against all evidence still believes he should be featured as a post-up player. He had 649 post-ups last year and got 480 points out of them, and that mark is just as bad as it sounds: ranked 121st in the league for players with 26 or more post-ups, and there can't be all that many of those. Meanwhile his pick and roll numbers are 164 plays for 212 points, which is just as good as it sounds: ranked 9th in the league. Dwight's a twit.

I don't care how hard-headed Kobe is, he's not going to be an elite player for "several" more seasons. Several means at least 3, which puts Kobe ahead of Coach Kidd in MP. Dwight's a twit.

I've talked about this before, but the meteoric fall from grace continues to be astonishing. He was second in MVP voting in 2011 and the reigning 3-time DPOY, now it looks like 2012-2014 could be 3 teams and 0 playoff wins if he goes to Dallas.

.

Lakers are possibly the first team to get flattened by a new CBA provision that kicks in this year: teams $4m over the tax line (projected at $71.6m) cannot receive a player in a sign-and-trade. So no Howard for Splitter/Ginobili and pieces, no Howard for Smith... unless the Lakers can somehow cut a large amount of salary, say by amnestying somebody on their roster who is set to (and would still) make $30m next year... just saying... their only other real option is Howard signs with the other team straight up and they get nothing.

.

.

Nets want to get even older (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9429958/sources-brooklyn-nets-seek-trade-boston-celtics-kevin-garnett-paul-pierce), trying to add Garnett and Pierce. Lopez has to start. Will Garnett come off the bench? What happens to Rondo? Is Pierce still capable of starting (Wallace slated to be included in the trade)? How much of a joke would their starting 5 be defensively?

SHAFT

06-27-2013, 07:22 PM

The main reason Dwight is indicating he doesn't want to resign with the lakers is d'antoni and his system. That's what Broussard is reporting.

Fuck Dwight Howard. He's a sensitive bitch. He can't handle pressure and he wants to be constantly catered too. I'm still hoping the lakers pull a sign and trade and get something for his bitch ass.

Latrinsorm

06-27-2013, 08:07 PM

Latrinsorm

06-28-2013, 12:34 AM

Garnett, Pierce, Terry, 3 1st rounders
for
Humphries, Wallace, Evans, Bogans, Shengalia

Current Nets roster
point - Williams, Taylor
wing - Johnson, Pierce, Brooks, Teletovic
big - Lopez, Garnett
washed up - Terry

Good luck with that! Yikes. They actually took on salary for next year ($32m in, $24.6 out), I don't see how they can possibly get Watson back after he opts out, who wants to come to this team? What's the plan? Great news for Miami! :D

DoctorUnne

06-28-2013, 02:28 PM

SHAFT

06-28-2013, 02:50 PM

I would say that's another reason, but when NBA coaches can be changed pretty much on a whim, the arguably main reason is the guy who is almost literally untradeable: $30m contract (albeit expiring but still), blown Achilles, no-trade clause.

I don't think the lakers could get away with using the amnesty on Kobe. It'd be a terrible pr move. No one is expecting them to compete for anything this season.

I say be the worst team in the league, totally tank this year. Try to land wiggins in next years draft. Wiggins plus all the cap space they'll have for 2014 is good enough for me.

Not likely any of that will happen, but fun to think about.

Keller

06-28-2013, 02:57 PM

The Lakers went from GREATEST TEAM EVER ASSEMBLED!!! to WINLESS FOR WIGGINS! in less than 12 months.

Too fucking funny.

Latrinsorm

06-28-2013, 04:13 PM

Sad to see Pierce not retire as a Celtic but we got a pretty good haul of picks. That Nets starting lineup looks SICK. Who's the worst player, Johnson?! KG?!

That's four players in the top 40 last year in PER + Joe Johnson, who sucked last year but would be top 50 based on previous years.The starting lineup looks like an All-Star team (from 5 years ago), and All-Star teams are awful. Who is going to create shots for others on that team? Rondo did that to a fault, Williams is a shoot first point guard. I'm not saying he's Westbrook, but he's certainly not Paul. Over the last few years Pierce was assisted on 50-55% of his baskets, Garnett on 75-80%. Brooklyn was 6th worst in baskets assisted last year, that's not a good mix at all.

How are you going to play Garnett and Lopez at the same time on defense?

Who's shooting 3s on this team? Last year's average was .359. Career marks:
Williams - .356
Johnson - .369
Brooks - .302 (mercifully stopped attempting them last year)
Pierce - .370
Terry - .379
4 average to above average guys, that'll be fine, right? Miami had 5 guys shoot 40% last year. It's not going to be fine, it's going to be okay, and that's the story of the Nets. They're okay at most things. No contender ever has been built on that.

And let's think about minutes. You need 48 * 5 = 240 minutes from your team every night. Last year you got...
Williams - 36.4
Lopez - 30.4
Johnson - 36.7
Brooks - 12.5
Pierce - 33.4
Garnett - 29.7
Terry - 26.9
total - 206
Only Lopez and Brooks are aging into (rather than out of or well out of) primes and can reasonably be expected to play more minutes, and Garnett sat 13 games last year. Haven't we learned from Indiana that you need a bench to seriously compete when you don't have any truly elite players? What bench are you getting with 0 cap space? No backup point guard, no plus defenders except Garnett, this roster is a disaster even if all the old guys play up to their levels from last season, which as we saw this last year with Nash is no gimme.

.

Like I said, for a Heat supporter this trade is fabulous. You finally get rid of Boston (although that may have more to do with my not wanting to get berated by Andy for the thousandth time), you don't materially improve (and in fact catastrophically undermine) Brooklyn, you prevent KG or Pierce from going to an actual contender. Granger for Pierce would have been very scary. This? Not scary.

SHAFT

06-28-2013, 04:34 PM

The Lakers went from GREATEST TEAM EVER ASSEMBLED!!! to WINLESS FOR WIGGINS! in less than 12 months.

Too fucking funny.

Yes they did. The D'Antoni hire was the catalyst. He's never going to win a championship and Howard hates playing for him.

Latrinsorm

06-28-2013, 05:25 PM

SHAFT

06-29-2013, 02:41 AM

Complementary? Please

tyrant-201

06-29-2013, 03:12 AM

Who was Karl Malone's coach? Ok, bad example. Who was Hakeem's coach for his first 10 years in the NBA, when he routinely had first round exits? Nobody knows, nobody cares. Coaches really don't matter that much.

We have had two versions of the All Hall of Fame Lakers that flamed out. Only one person was involved with both teams: players, coaches, executives, owners. One guy.

Can we just agree that Kobe was one of the best complementary players ever when he felt like it, but his decision to try and be a primary player was palpably detrimental to his teams? I really don't know what more it would take.

So he won two more rings as a complementary player? Hmm..

Was Gasol better? Bynum? Fisher? Artest? My idea of complementary means it's something lesser that compliments something better. Doesn't stand to reason.

Enter the last argument we had about this. Shaq + Kobe for the 3 rings. Does Shaq win without Kobe? Kobe win without Shaq? Neither, in my opinion.

Edited to say: I understand your jealousy of the Lakers organization and Kobe blinds you. It's okay. Lebron has 3 to go, the Heat organization has 13 to go. You'll get there.

SHAFT

06-29-2013, 04:57 AM

Latrin is trolling. Clearly

tyrant-201

06-29-2013, 05:07 AM

Latrin is trolling. Clearly

Clearly I fell for it =(

RichardCranium

06-29-2013, 08:29 AM

Nerlens Noel and a protected first rounder next year for Jrue Holiday? Yes please.

Latrinsorm

06-29-2013, 06:14 PM

So he won two more rings as a complementary player? Hmm..

Was Gasol better? Bynum? Fisher? Artest? My idea of complementary means it's something lesser that compliments something better. Doesn't stand to reason.His team won only two more rings as he (a complementary player) tried unsuccessfully to perform as a primary player. Additionally, a team does not necessarily need an obvious primary for the rest to be complementary, c.f. the Bad Boy Pistons, the other Pistons, arguably the Big 3 Celtics.
Enter the last argument we had about this. Shaq + Kobe for the 3 rings. Does Shaq win without Kobe? Kobe win without Shaq? Neither, in my opinion.As I said, Kobe was one of the best complementary players ever. Look at the 2000 composite box:

Shaq - 38.0 points, 16.7 rebounds, 2.7 blocks, 35% USG.
Kobe - 15.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 26% USG.

Now look at the 2010 composite box:

Kobe - 28.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 36% USG
Pau - 18.6 points, 11.6 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, 21% USG

Shaq had +22 points with +9% USG, Kobe had +15% USG and only managed +10 points. Hence, his decision to try and be a primary player was detrimental to his team.
Edited to say: I understand your jealousy of the Lakers organization and Kobe blinds you. It's okay. Lebron has 3 to go, the Heat organization has 13 to go. You'll get there.I have detailed numbers and figures, you have "you jelly". Which of us is the blind one? You think I wouldn't love it if a player made a run at Bill Russell's rings record? Kobe could have, but he took that from us by being incapable of reining in his ego. Check out this graph I made in 2012:

http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?70160-NBA-Should-Kobe-Shoot-So-Much

I'm going to go ahead and update that up to the present for Kobe, Michael, and LeBron, so you can see the difference between a player whose teams win because of his scoring vs. a player whose teams win despite it. To be continued.

tyrant-201

06-29-2013, 06:26 PM

You jelly. Lakers forevar :)

Latrinsorm

06-29-2013, 07:11 PM

Allen opts in. Hurray.

.

The interesting points are at the margins, of course, and here's what they look like. For sample size reasons we're sticking with regular season for now.

Jordan (1985 not included in records)
Overall team winning record: 668 and 322, 67.5% ± 3.0%
Record in games with >25 FGAs: 215 and 126, 63.0% ± 5.2%
Record in games with <16 FGAs: 71 and 32, 68.9% ± 9.1%
No statistically significant differences.

LeBron
Overall: 502 and 263, 65.6% ± 3.4%
>25: 55 and 48, 53.4% ± 9.8%
<16: 102 and 27, 79.1% ± 7.2%
Better with <16 FGAs by 2.9%, no difference with >25.

Kobe since Shaq
Overall: 420 and 258, 61.9% ± 3.7%
>25: 88 and 90, 49.4% ± 7.5%
<16: 83 and 20, 80.7% ± 7.8%
Better with <16 FGAs by 7.2%, worse with >25 FGAs by 1.3%.

.

Basketball-reference has added new tools since I last did this analysis, so it's pretty easy to do for anybody (again, from 1986 to present). Give me a name, any name you like, and we'll see if anyone else so clearly submarined their team by shooting, and shooting, and shooting, and shooting.

RSR

06-29-2013, 07:21 PM

Antoine Wright.

SHAFT

06-29-2013, 07:24 PM

Latrin, throw all the numbers and stats at me and all ill say is this; 5 rings for Kobe. That's all that matters. Plus during his prime he was extremely enjoyable to watch.

Latrinsorm

06-29-2013, 07:41 PM

Antoine Wright.Has only taken 16 or more shots in 1 game, so the analysis is not applicable. Did you mean Antoine Walker?
Latrin, throw all the numbers and stats at me and all ill say is this; 5 rings for Kobe. That's all that matters.I'm not saying (at the moment) that Kobe is a good or bad player, only that his decision making hurt his team on average. The # of rings he has is totally irrelevant to the # he could have had, because the Lakers did not go 16 for 16 while Kobe played for them. The claims are these:

The more Kobe shoots, the more his team loses.
The less Kobe shoots, the more his team wins.

That his teams won and lost is not disputed, it is in fact the only way these observations can be made. Insisting that his teams won, therefore, makes no sense.

RSR

06-29-2013, 07:48 PM

Yeah, meant Antoine Walker.

Latrinsorm

06-29-2013, 10:20 PM

'Toine
Overall: 409 and 484, 45.8% ± 3.3%
>25: 28 and 36, 43.8% ± 12.4%
<16: 191 and 192, 49.9% ± 5.1%
No statistically significant differences.

tyrant-201

06-29-2013, 10:24 PM

Stats totally win championships. Totally.

Latrinsorm

06-30-2013, 12:06 AM

I assume by your choice to not address anything I said in any way that you are incapable of doing so, and that it therefore is absolutely correct.

Geijon Khyree

06-30-2013, 12:11 AM

Ellington over Brewer, but they both frankly suck. With the timberwolves or away they are not consistent shooters. They are bench scrubs and not very effecient ones.

tyrant-201

06-30-2013, 12:13 AM

I assume by your choice to not address anything I said in any way that you are incapable of doing so, and that it therefore is absolutely correct.

http://sport-nuts.net/kobe-bryant.jpg

Latrinsorm

06-30-2013, 12:32 AM

Also wanted to mention: it turns out Haslem was playing on a torn meniscus for who knows how long. Like I said several times he was really bad for the Heat this past year, so apparently knees are important for basketball.
Ellington over Brewer, but they both frankly suck. With the timberwolves or away they are not consistent shooters. They are bench scrubs and not very effecient ones.I feel like neither has found the right team/setting yet, but the potential is there. For instance Ellington on the Cavs shot 37.1% from 3, which isn't bad and isn't great, but if we break it down we see...

27 of 56 (48.2%) when spotting up,
19 of 68 (27.9%) off the dribble, off screen, handoff

Pretty much everyone shoots the best when spotting up, obviously, but the key is to put the player in positions where that can happen. On a lousy team like the Cavs, there are no role players. He gets to a quality team that doesn't expect him to do anything off the dribble (and explicitly forbids him from trying), and his overall % will go up just by having better shots.

With Brewer it's less about shot types and more about PT. In games where he played 25+ minutes, he shot 50 of 152 (32.9%). Is that amazing, no, but it beats all hell out of the Andre Millerish 41 for 155 (26.5%!!!) he shot in the rest of his games, and indicates he could blossom more with consistent and extended minutes.

Latrinsorm

06-30-2013, 12:44 AM

^ False, Kobe's only MVP came in the 24 jersey.

And let's review that 2008 season, shall we? The Lakers were in 5th place in the West before trading for Pau. Can you remember the last time an MVP came from a 5th place team? Heck, can you even remember one who came from a 3rd or 4th seed?

Latrinsorm

06-30-2013, 01:03 AM

So I went ahead and looked it up myself. Since the media has been giving the MVP award (1981 - present), the seeds of the winners break down as follows:

#1 - 25
#2 - 5
#3 - 2 (one was Michael Jordan 1988, the other was 1981 when Dr. J's 76ers tied the Celtics for the best record in the East but due to division/tiebreaker quirks ended up with the 3 seed, met the Celtics in the Conference Finals and lost game 7 in Boston by 1 point)
#6 - 1 (Moses Malone's Rockets in 1982, were tied with two other teams for the 4th best record in the West)

In short, not only should Kobe thank Pau for those 2 rings, he should thank him for his only MVP award too.

SHAFT

06-30-2013, 01:07 AM

Every superstar that has ever won a title had "help". It's absurd to say so and so should thank so and so for their title.

tyrant-201

06-30-2013, 03:00 AM

Michael Jordan couldn't do it without Pippen or Rodman. Lebron couldn't do it without Wade or Allen. Kobe only needed Gasol. / thread

SHAFT

06-30-2013, 03:04 AM

Michael Jordan couldn't do it without Pippen or Rodman. Lebron couldn't do it without Wade or Allen. Kobe only needed Gasol. / thread

Shaq played a pretty big role too. Lebron, Kobe, Jordan, david robinson and even Garnett all failed alone. Garnett, Robinson, kobe and Jordan couldn't even get to the finals without help.

tyrant-201

06-30-2013, 01:28 PM

Shaq played a pretty big role too. Lebron, Kobe, Jordan, david robinson and even Garnett all failed alone. Garnett, Robinson, kobe and Jordan couldn't even get to the finals without help.

Oh I don't deny Shaq's importance in the first 3. He helped guide Kobe into the legend he now is. If it wasn't for Shaq and Kobe, the NBA wouldn't exist anymore. Too much second rate talent these days.

Latrinsorm

06-30-2013, 06:41 PM

Every superstar that has ever won a title had "help". It's absurd to say so and so should thank so and so for their title.The comment is not meant to indicate that only Kobe should thank someone for his title (although I would point out that Hakeem won the title in 1994 with nobody).

This is why it's hard to talk to people about Kobe. Every success (individual or team) is evidence in his favor, every failure (individual or team) doesn't count as anything. I point out how Kobe's teams have had significantly worse winning %s when he shoots more and significantly better when he shoots less, I get a(n anachronistic) MVP poster. I point out how the active ingredient in that MVP campaign was Pau Gasol, I get back talk about titles. Can we focus on one thing at a time, or are these concessions on you people's part?
If it wasn't for Shaq and Kobe, the NBA wouldn't exist anymore.If the NHL could survive Bettman, the NBA could very easily have survived without Shaq and Kobe. You forget that Duncan was the greatest player of the 2000 decade even in our timeline, he could have made a run at GOAT without Shaq and Kobe in the NBA.

Latrinsorm

06-30-2013, 07:00 PM

Back to players who will be relevant in the upcoming season: Chris Paul apparently staying (http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/9438022/chris-paul-remain-los-angeles-clippers-representatives-tell-teams-sources) with Clips. Everyone (except Bill Simmons) loves Doc, fine, but look at this roster...

point Paul, Bledsoe
wing Crawford, Butler, Green
big Griffin, Jordan

There are a lot of pieces missing before we can take them seriously as a contender, and even if Chris signs a Tony Parker deal for $10m a year they're going to be at or near the cap. Because they were 7-8 in close games last year and were therefore pretty much at the mean, we wouldn't expect any regression to it to bump their record. Griffin and Jordan both seem to have plateaued. It's possible the Spurs and Nuggets fall off next year, but they're not catching the Thunder, and it's just as possible the Grizzlies, Warriors, and Rockets take big steps forward and pass them. I don't see the appeal.

Latrinsorm

07-01-2013, 01:26 AM

Knicks bizarrely going after Bargnani (http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/9439741/new-york-knicks-close-acquiring-andrea-bargnani-toronto-raptors-sources-say), because...? Honestly the only reason I can think of is to one-up the Nets at making a fantasy team that could not possibly work in practice.

Novak excelled as a spot-up shooter, not a great defender, but embraced his role.

Bargnani had a few good shooting years early in his career but has been horrible recently, and missed 16+ games all three of the last years. Despite Jared Zwerling's assertions, he's an average post-up threat at best. Also not a great defender, and after being the #1 or #1B option in Toronto the past few years there's no telling how he'll react to his new role. Also worth pointing out is his good shooting years came playing next to Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon. Bosh isn't exactly Tim Duncan but he's certainly less of a hog than Carmelo, and Calderon puts even good point guards to shame when it comes to passing, and Felton is not a good point guard.

So as a Miami fan let me just say thanks, both New York teams! I've said before how it's going to be very difficult for Miami to get back to a fourth straight Finals, so I appreciate you guys paving the road for them.

Latrinsorm

07-01-2013, 05:28 PM

Danny Ainge to Globe: "We are not tanking. Thats ridiculous. This is the Boston Celtics." via Stein via some guy, so you know it's legit. Time to abolish the draft.

Clippers - I don't know, man. With Paul at $20m a year, you're looking at $48m just for him, Blake, and Jordan. At 5 years, you'll be paying him >$20m in his age 32 season, he's already had some health issues, and little guys don't tend to age well. He's the best point guard in the game so I see the urge to keep him, but there's got to be another move coming, and soon.

thefarmer

07-01-2013, 06:21 PM

little guys don't tend to age well.

Do little guys age worse than bigs? I always thought the opposite.

FACTS TIME LATRIN!

Latrinsorm

07-01-2013, 07:47 PM

Quickness is well gone at 35, but tall guys are tall forever. I'll do a more detailed analysis, but a couple Bargnani points brought me here:

1. Apparently had a major injury last year with a sprained right elbow (he is right handed), and specifically an "avulsion sprain", which appears to be when the ligament in question tears a piece of bone off, which... really sounds awful.

2. Averaged less than 5 rebounds a game last year. In NBA history, only 3 seven footers have done so with >24 minutes per game more than once in their careers: James Edwards, Mark Blount, and Bargnani, although one of Edwards' years was a Pistons championship year, so Knick fans could take solace in that.

thefarmer

07-01-2013, 08:05 PM

Tall guys are tall.. but bigs are more prone to injury aren't they? Excluding a few rare cases (Duncan, Garnett first come to mind), just being tall doesn't mean much when there's no joints (typical big guy problem right?) to help them stand up. Right?

Latrinsorm

07-01-2013, 08:11 PM

Recognizing that a 7 foot tall human is already a freakish case, it seems to me that only super freak cases like Yao (tall) or Shaq (fat) have joint issues disproportionate to small NBA players (who are themselves still freakishly tall). I think we notice it more because those tall creaky guys are still in the league, while short creaky guys are out of sight, out of mind. I'll go into more detail in a new thread to avoid going further off-topic, the person who started this thread can be kind of a prick.

Drew

07-01-2013, 09:13 PM

I'm 6'4 and in the 99th percentile of height so you're right when you say most NBA players are already freakishly tall. I tend to agree that big guys have it longer especially when the game was a more power game (see Malone, Moses, Abdul-Jabber, Kareem). It's kind of like boxing, the last thing to go there is power.

Latrinsorm

07-02-2013, 05:03 PM

Charles Pierce wrote today that James Harden "probably" would not be joining the Hall of Fame with Hakeem and the Glide, and I wondered, and I grabbed Harden's reference page, and noticed he led the league in FTA last year, and I wondered: is that a useful indicator of HOF?

So far, everyone who led the league in FTA from 1950 to 1994 is in the HOF except World B. Free in 1979. If we go way out on a limb and guess Shaq makes it, we get to 2002. Since then...

2003 Pierce (a good 50/50 chance)
2005 Amar'e (probably not)
2006 AI (yes)
2007 Kobe (yes)
2008-9, 11-12 Dwight (who knows)
2010 Durant (who knows)
2013 Harden (who knows)

...so up to Kobe, we have 22 of 24 in. Surprisingly indicative, and also surprising that Michael led the league in FTA a grand total of once, especially when we remember he played 3000 minutes basically every year and led the league in FGA 9 times.

tyrant-201

07-02-2013, 05:06 PM

They need to have a Hall of Fame within the Hall of Fame for players like Kobe.

Latrinsorm

07-02-2013, 05:14 PM

I am all for a Hall of Players that Tragically Failed to Meet their Potential. Kobe could be the logo!

tyrant-201

07-02-2013, 05:21 PM

you know who the real champ is? I mean, aside from Bill Russel.

Big shot Bob. Talk about clutch. I bet he could still come back and play in spots to make the big shot.

Latrinsorm

07-02-2013, 05:25 PM

A couple more thoughts on the Neltics trade:

The Nets basically started Gerald Wallace and a Reggie Evans/Kris Humphries hybrid last year at 3 and 4. They played 30.1 and 22.3 minutes per game respectively, Pierce and Garnett played 33.4 and 29.7. Perfect! Pierce and Garnett can tone down their minutes and be better longer harder faster stronger. But what about FGA? Well, those numbers shake out to 6.6 and 3.7 to 14.2(!) and 12.5(!), so the Nets have to somehow scare up another 16 shots every night.

But they can just have everyone else shoot less! Well, Joe's FGA/game last year was already the lowest it's been since 2005, Deron's was his lowest since 2010, and Lopez is your best player. And you have a rookie head coach with absolutely no (de jure) coaching experience trying to handle this, and his ace in the hole is Lawrence Frank screeching at people. Good luck with that!

Latrinsorm

07-02-2013, 05:29 PM

you know who the real champ is? I mean, aside from Bill Russel.

Big shot Bob. Talk about clutch. I bet he could still come back and play in spots to make the big shot.Sure, and as we saw with Chris Andersen and David West you can expect the NBA not to suspend a guy for taking gratuitous cheap shots at people a la Cheap Shot Rob so long as he's black. I'm surprised more teams don't employ goons like Robert Horry to come in and commit a criminal assault on a much smaller player. You know for instance Steph Curry can't hit you back, Steph Curry weighs about 12 pounds and is made of paper clips and bottled water. Hell, why even give Horry a contract? Just give him cash to ambush Curry as he walks off the bus, then you don't have to worry about cap hits.

Seriously! If you're going to thug it up, you might as well get the exemplar of that field and do it in the most fiscally responsible fashion.

tyrant-201

07-02-2013, 05:39 PM

Sure, and as we saw with Chris Andersen and David West you can expect the NBA not to suspend a guy for taking gratuitous cheap shots at people a la Cheap Shot Rob so long as he's black. I'm surprised more teams don't employ goons like Robert Horry to come in and commit a criminal assault on a much smaller player. You know for instance Steph Curry can't hit you back, Steph Curry weighs about 12 pounds and is made of paper clips and bottled water. Hell, why even give Horry a contract? Just give him cash to ambush Curry as he walks off the bus, then you don't have to worry about cap hits.

Seriously! If you're going to thug it up, you might as well get the exemplar of that field and do it in the most fiscally responsible fashion.

Couldn't agree more. I'm taking this idea up with the Laker organization.

Latrinsorm

07-02-2013, 07:22 PM

Splitter down with $9m a year for 4 years to Spurs (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9445283/sources-tiago-splitter-agrees-re-sign-san-antonio-spurs). Kind of a surprise both that the Spurs kept him and that nobody else made a Stupidly Generous RFA Offer (TM Isiah). It puts the Spurs out of the running for directly signing any marquee free agent, not that they'd made a ton of big city San Antonio noise about gunning for one anyway. At the same time, Splitter while listed at PF is clearly a C, so teams like LA and PHI with the ability to offer super contracts to elite centers might still be options for trades.

Rumor is that Clips trading Bledsoe and dumping Butler for Dudley and Redick. It's a very interesting move: Redick is a legit 3 shooter and not as bad at defense as you might think, Dudley is an upgrade over Butler in all areas at this point, which is all well and good, but who plays backup PG now? I frankly am not super impressed by Bledsoe, but he was certainly elite for a backup point guard, and that's a strength for 15 minutes a game. Not every team is Miami and San Antonio, not every team can just boot their backup PG from the rotation in the playoffs. I do think it's a net upgrade, but I still feel like the Clips are at least one move away from being a serious contender and have serious depth issues. Also, I'm not sure I'm comfortable living in the universe where the Clippers are the wheeling and dealing LA team and the Lakers stare dumbly at an ill-fitting roster and stand pat.

Ardwen

07-02-2013, 07:46 PM

I keep thinking the Lakers have to be hoping some team will do a sign and trade for Howard, because otherwise things are going to fall apart fast there it seems.

DoctorUnne

07-02-2013, 08:11 PM

Pierce is a lock for the hall of fame

Latrinsorm

07-02-2013, 08:40 PM

SHAFT

07-02-2013, 09:17 PM

I think pierce gets in. He was a dominate player of his era. He also set some Celtic team records, which is tough.

Latrinsorm

07-02-2013, 09:24 PM

More rumors: Kevin Martin going to Sota, reuniting with Adelman from their wildly successful Sacramento and Houston days. (Note: the Kings and Rockets made it out of the first round exactly 1 year before Martin got there and never with him.) I make the fun of Kevin Martin, but if he's willing to embrace the same role as he did in OKC (stands to reason at $7m a year), this could really help the Wolves If They Stay Healthy. Retaining Pek is a big must, but if they do...

point - Rubio, Barea
wing - Martin, Shved, Budinger, Ridnour
big - Love, Pekovic, Williams sort of, grab Stiemsma with the team option

That's a legit playoff team, and for a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2004 (no bs) that's got to be very appetizing.

Latrinsorm

07-02-2013, 09:32 PM

I think pierce gets in. He was a dominate player of his era. He also set some Celtic team records, which is tough.Playing for Boston obviously is a huge advantage, but I'm not sure the case can be made for him being dominant. His claim to fame before big 3 was a run to the Conference Finals in 2002, and that team is really most memorable for trading away Joe Johnson.

I'm not saying his records don't exist, but the only ones I can find are FT and FTA for a season and career (which is a legitimate skill he has) and career 3s (which is more a function of his era, Bird would have done just as well or better if he had played today).

I suspect his case would have been stronger had he stayed a Celtic his whole career, it's pretty much just him and Kobe who have done that with marquee franchises in this era and sportswriters almost by definition love stories.

Latrinsorm

07-03-2013, 01:17 AM

Chris Broussard does a pretty good job breaking news in general, but this may be the least newsworthy tweet ever:

"A person in LA/D12 meeting:"went well. I'm not sure what he's gonna do. He was indecisive.""

.

Pacers shooting for Copeland. Pretty much anyone would make their bench better, but not sure they can make him a big enough offer to get him away from NY (RFA) without devouring their space. He's a fine bench player, but having 6 NBA players and then only being able to afford scrubs isn't that much better than 5 NBA players and scrubs.

.

Pistons offer Stuckey and Villanueva for Gay. Somehow I think we won't see too many ex-players getting GM jobs in the future.

.

I have suspected for some time that LeBron is going to opt out of his contract to re-sign with Miami at a reduced rate, and I'm wondering if Iguodala is doing the same now. LeBron of course was forever-rich before he played an NBA minute thanks to shoes, but Iguodala has made $73 million (ANDRE IGUODALA) in NBA money alone. He's set for life, why not take less so your team can seriously contend? What would you do, get richer than [more money you could ever spend] working in a dump like Sacramento or still get paid millions of dollars a year working some place fun?

DoctorUnne

07-03-2013, 09:23 AM

10 All-Stars and 1 Finals MVP, but never made a serious run at MVP, never led the league in scoring or anything else, never made All-NBA 1st team, only made 2nd team once, career averages of 21 6 and 4, didn't do much of note in college or internationally. Regarding Finals MVP, so far only 2 guys of 19 eligible have got it and not the Hall (Jo Jo White and Cedric Maxwell), but Chauncey Billups is definitely not making it, I'd be surprised if Tony Parker made it especially once Duncan retires and the Spurs immediately hit the cellar, depending on how Miami does the next few years Wade could be a lock or in the same boat as Pierce.

Here are the SFs and SG-SFs to be inducted in the last 10 years:

Dražen Dalipagić (yes, there are two guys named Dražen in the basketball Hall of Fame)
Clyde Drexler
Dominique Wilkins
Adrian Dantley
Gus Johnson
Scottie Pippen
Chris Mullin
Jamaal Wilkes

He can certainly hang with some of those guys, but not all (keeping in mind college and international). I'm comfortable with my 50-50 projection.

Lock with a capital "L." I'd give you 10:1 odds again to put your money where your mouth is but you don't bet. He won't get in for being the dominant player of his era, he'll get in for his counting stats and the Finals MVP is the clincher.

Already there are only nine other guys in history with Pierce's totals in points, rebounds and assists. He's got a very good chance of finishing with 25,000/7,500/5,000 and there are only six other guys who have done that. I mean fuck he would get in on points alone. The only guy in front of him who has even a shred of a doubt at being inducted is AI and he is the poster child of bringing points and nothing else to the table. And you gave him your stamp of approval.

I hear you on the no first team all-NBAs, but the ten All-Stars and the finals MVP is enough in terms of hardware. Voters won't ignore that prolonged period of excellence.

And if you won't take my word for it take basketball-reference.com's word for it. They have him at a 98.3% probability. The 1.7% chance is covering the miniscule probability he doesn't get in if and only if he suffers a career-ending injury early next season. If he gets 2+ more years under his belt close to the level he played last year that becomes 99.9%. Sorry but you're going to have to admit you're wrong on this one.

Wade's a lock too

SHAFT

07-03-2013, 04:26 PM

Everyone thinks Howard is bolting from la, I think he's staying. He's going to resign. I'd rather see a sign and trade though.

tyrant-201

07-03-2013, 04:33 PM

Everyone thinks Howard is bolting from la, I think he's staying. He's going to resign. I'd rather see a sign and trade though.

If he's re-signed, and stays, then they need to find better ways to utilize him. Last year was a fucking travesty.

Latrinsorm

07-03-2013, 05:34 PM

Lock with a capital "L." I'd give you 10:1 odds again to put your money where your mouth is but you don't bet. He won't get in for being the dominant player of his era, he'll get in for his counting stats and the Finals MVP is the clincher.

Already there are only nine other guys in history with Pierce's totals in points, rebounds and assists. He's got a very good chance of finishing with 25,000/7,500/5,000 and there are only six other guys who have done that. I mean fuck he would get in on points alone. The only guy in front of him who has even a shred of a doubt at being inducted is AI and he is the poster child of bringing points and nothing else to the table. And you gave him your stamp of approval.AI was also an MVP, 4-time scoring leader, dragged a team to the Finals, and had enormous cultural impact. I don't think career counting stats have the impact in basketball that they do in baseball, and even in baseball they're starting to be devalued for some of the same reasons: players are playing so much longer now. Havlicek played 16 years and 46k minutes, next year is Pierce's 16th (although he'll only get to around 42k minutes), he could easily go another two after that.
I hear you on the no first team all-NBAs, but the ten All-Stars and the finals MVP is enough in terms of hardware. Voters won't ignore that prolonged period of excellence.I think my point is that it's not a period of excellence but a period of very, very goodness.
And if you won't take my word for it take basketball-reference.com's word for it. They have him at a 98.3% probability. The 1.7% chance is covering the miniscule probability he doesn't get in if and only if he suffers a career-ending injury early next season. If he gets 2+ more years under his belt close to the level he played last year that becomes 99.9%. Sorry but you're going to have to admit you're wrong on this one.I very much respect their methodology (and would like to point out that they use per-game rather than career numbers), but I think a strong counterpoint is Jo Jo White: 7 All-Stars, Finals MVP, two championships, never made All-NBA 1, never made a serious run at MVP, gold medal, Elite Eight, and everyone loves the little guy... but he's not in.
Wade's a lock tooLike I said, I'm not saying either guy definitely won't get in, I just wouldn't be surprised if they don't (again unless Miami runs off another title or two, in which case Wade would become a lock).

Latrinsorm

07-03-2013, 05:41 PM

If he's re-signed, and stays, then they need to find better ways to utilize him. Last year was a fucking travesty.Dwight's biggest problem is that he thinks he's a post-up threat. He's just not, especially not on a team without 3 point shooters to spread the defense out for him. He's got very poor touch (obviously), his strength and size isn't overpowering, his skill level is low. The most efficient post-up threats are guards like Kobe and Wade, who have great touch and can just bully other guards. Dwight can't bully other centers. While he's dramatically more sculpted-looking, he's still basically the same size as Chris Bosh.

Where Dwight has always been excellent (even last year with major back issues) is in the pick and roll, where his combination of speed and strength is unmatched. Nash is one of the two greatest pick and roll PGs of all time, D'Antoni loves running the pick and roll, it's a match made in heaven now that Kobe isn't clogging up the works... but Dwight can't clog up the works by petulantly demanding post-ups either. He could work with Hakeem from now to the end of time, it's just not going to happen for him.

Latrinsorm

07-03-2013, 05:51 PM

And now in the "Are the Kings even a real NBA team?" department: Kings yank (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9446287/sacramento-kings-abruptly-pull-offer-free-agent-andre-iguodala) their 4 year $52 offer to Iguodala for no apparent reason. In Andre's words: "WOW!!!! Really??", a sentiment I'm sure shared by many others.

.

The longer it goes without anyone making Andrew Bynum noise the more worried I am he's going to end up on a (relatively) cheap deal with a smart team, because Miami won't get him. It's bizarre to me that everyone assumes Derrick Rose will be back 100% but holds their nose, wrings their hands, and possibly bites their thumb at Bynum. Rose is 6'3", an average defender at best, and can't shoot... if he's lost a significant amount of explosiveness what does he have left? Bynum is 7' with touch. He could have Garnett knees and still be productive in today's NBA. He shot 47% on jumpers in 2012, and for reference Aldridge only shot 43% last year, Dirk shot 51%. He doesn't have a ton of range, but he's not a stiff.

Keller

07-03-2013, 06:56 PM

Celtics hire Butler's Brad Stevens.

Not sure I like that move for anyone.

thefarmer

07-03-2013, 07:34 PM

Latrinsorm

07-03-2013, 07:57 PM

Celtics hire Butler's Brad Stevens.

Not sure I like that move for anyone.Hey, it worked for Pitino. What's that? Uh-huh... I'm being informed it was actually catastrophically bad for Pitino.

RichardCranium

07-03-2013, 09:37 PM

SHAFT

07-03-2013, 10:40 PM

I would love for New Orleans to work out a sign and trade for Tyreke Evans and then make a run at Iguodala.

That'd be nice. With Davis and Noel? Hell, Davis and Noel is gonna be fun to watch on its own.

Just remembered they traded Noel for holiday. Nevermind.

RichardCranium

07-04-2013, 07:07 AM

That'd be nice. With Davis and Noel? Hell, Davis and Noel is gonna be fun to watch on its own.

Just remembered they traded Noel for holiday. Nevermind.

I was excited when Noel fell to sixth. I was even moreso when they traded him for Holiday.

It looks like Evans signed the offer sheet last night. Without a sign and trade, I don't know how this will work unless Lopez comes off the books.

RichardCranium

07-04-2013, 07:10 AM

And now I'm hearing Lopez to the Pacers for Gerald Green.

Keller

07-04-2013, 11:22 AM

And now I'm hearing Lopez to the Pacers for Gerald Green.

Please please PLEASE take Gerald Green.

RichardCranium

07-04-2013, 12:50 PM

Please please PLEASE take Gerald Green.

The latest is that the Kings won't match the Pels offer for Tyreke Evans but want to work out a sign and trade involving Lopez and Greivis Vasquez.

Latrinsorm

07-04-2013, 02:18 PM

I would not give up Vasquez for Evans. They've both been in pretty miserable situations, but Vasquez has shown NBA level point guard skills and is threatening to develop a 3 point shot (34% on 243 attempts last year, 43% on 99 spot-ups). He's a solid starter. Evans has arguably never improved on his (scintillating) rookie season, and there may even be some durability concerns. Yes they have Holliday, but having two legit PGs with size is not a bad thing. Neither guy is on the ball as much as a Chris Paul or Russell Westbrook, it can work.

J.R. Smith surprisingly willing to sign for only $6-$7m a year and stay with the Knicks. Korver re-signing with Atlanta, and suddenly there's no shooting left on the market. Sorry, Indiana/Chicago! At least Indy got C.J. Watson, that's a strong move.

RichardCranium

07-04-2013, 02:46 PM

RichardCranium

07-05-2013, 11:11 AM

Three way sign and trade:

New Orleans gets Tyreke Evans, Jeff Withey (39th pick out of Kansas), and a future second rounder
Sacramento gets Grievis Vasquez, a future second rounder, and cash
Portland gets Robin Lopez, Terrell Harris

Latrinsorm

07-05-2013, 06:12 PM

Keeping in mind that more moves might be coming, I don't like it. Vasquez is a legit starter, Lopez might be but is certainly a legit bench player, Harris hasn't shown much yet but I'm very confident he can be a legit bench player in the NBA if given playing time. That's three rotation pieces (one of which was arguably redundant) for Evans, who can't shoot and isn't much of a defender, and is going to cost you $11m a year where you had the two guards on super cheap contracts this year and Lopez on a reasonable team option even next year. I just don't like it, they weren't going to contend this year anyway, why not give the young nucleus a chance to grow?

Barnes back with Clippers. He's a good piece but he was a good piece last year too and they didn't do anything, they seem to be treading water, while...

GOLDEN STATE WHAT? Iguodala in (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9452879/golden-state-warriors-get-andre-iguodala-dwight-howard-chase-report-says), somehow the Jazz took Biedrins' AND Richard Jefferson's expiring contracts. I'm not sure how that's even allowed...? But the Warriors are looking serious:

point Curry
wing Thompson, Barnes, Iguodala
big Lee, Bogut, Ezeli

Less need for a back-up PG when Iguodala, Lee, and Bogut can all make plays for other people. If they stay healthy that's a dangerous core, I love it. If they trade Thompson and Barnes for Howard I will not love it so much.

Latrinsorm

07-05-2013, 06:44 PM

Mark Cuban says Dwight Howard's camp says Dwight Howard isn't going to the Mavs.

SHAFT

07-05-2013, 06:58 PM

If the lakers get 2 out of iguodala, Barnes, or Thompson, I'd be stoked. Hell, if even take 1 of the 3 plus bogut.

Latrinsorm

07-05-2013, 08:06 PM

Pat Beverly and Omer Asik reporting that Dwight Howard going to HYOO STAN. They don't have quite enough room to sign him outright to a $20m+ deal, maybe Utah will take Asik (doesn't want to play there) and Lin (isn't wanted to play there) too, why not?

Latrinsorm

07-05-2013, 11:27 PM

Just kidding lol Dwight might stay in LA after all! Whatever.

Mayo to Bucks. Whatever.

Calderon to Mavs. I was hoping he would go somewhere good that he could make great, I don't think he's the kind of player that makes a mediocre team good. There's always the trade deadline!

SHAFT

07-05-2013, 11:30 PM

This guy is a mental midget man. He's the worst. I hope he never wins a damn thing.

thefarmer

07-05-2013, 11:40 PM

This guy is a mental midget man. He's the worst. I hope he stays with the Lakers and never wins a damn thing.

Fixed.

SHAFT

07-05-2013, 11:51 PM

I don't want him on the lakers. I'd rather take a sign and trade than have him. He's a bitch

I also fault the lakers top brass. They fucked up when they hired d'antoni. If keeping Dwight was your top priority, why not hire the coach he wanted, which was Phil Jackson? How in the fuck do you pass on Phil Jackson for d'antoni? Fucking stupid.

thefarmer

07-05-2013, 11:55 PM

I don't want him either.

Send him to Atlanta. This way everyone wins!

thefarmer

07-06-2013, 12:01 AM

Dwight Howard to join Rockets
http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/9453534/dwight-howard-says-sign-houston-rockets

Dwight Howard is Houston-bound, after all.

The All-Star center told ESPN's Stephen A. Smith on Friday night that he will sign a free-agent contract with the Rockets after the league lifts its annual moratorium on player business Wednesday.

Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak told the team's website that Howard had informed the organization that he would not return to Los Angeles.

"We have been informed of Dwight's decision to not return to the Lakers," Kupchak said in a statement. "Naturally we're disappointed. However, we will now move forward in a different direction with the future of the franchise and, as always, will do our best to build the best team possible, one our great Lakers fans will be proud to support. To Dwight, we thank him for his time and consideration, and for his efforts with us last season. We wish him the best of luck on the remainder of his NBA career."

Earlier, a source told ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard that Howard had landed in Los Angeles and contacted the Lakers, telling them he was 50-50 on his decision to sign with either them or the Rockets.

Howard's call to the Lakers came hours after a person from his camp informed the team that he would not re-sign with Los Angeles, according to the source.

"He changed his mind," the source said. "Hey, he's Dwight. What can you say."

The source said Howard had a possible change of heart because of the extra $30 million he would be leaving on the table if he signs with Houston.

The Lakers could have given Howard a five-year deal worth $118 million while Houston and all other teams can only offer $88 million over four years.

Earlier Friday, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban confirmed the Mavs are fully out of contention for Howard. The Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks also were told they are out of the running for Howard, a source told ESPNLosAngeles.com.

SHAFT

07-06-2013, 12:01 AM

I don't want him either.

Send him to Atlanta. This way everyone wins!

Really? I thought rockets fans would be stoked. But nothing is certain yet of course with this idiot. Him and his management are horrible at creating a public image. You leak you're picking the rockets and then somehow 2 hours later you allow people to think you're still considering the lakers? How does that happen? His people have to be leaking this shit. They've been leaking info for weeks!

thefarmer

07-06-2013, 12:02 AM

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

thefarmer

07-06-2013, 12:03 AM

Really? I thought rockets fans would be stoked. But nothing is certain yet of course with this idiot. Him and his management are horrible at creating a public image. You leak you're picking the rockets and then somehow 2 hours later you allow people to think you're still considering the lakers? How does that happen? His people have to be leaking this shit. They've been leaking info for weeks!

I find his attitude and emotional state is fucking absurd. Houston has a good chemistry and team ideal/goal that I like. Howard is going to fuck that up, I'm sure.

I'm also unsure about giving a max(ish) contract to a guy STILL recovering from a back injury. Don't get me wrong, I think he has talent, but that attitude just fucks shit up wherever he goes.

Latrinsorm

07-06-2013, 12:04 AM

thefarmer

07-06-2013, 12:06 AM

I almost wonder if the "50/50" thing was a prank...? Regardless. Once he signs, I'm going to look through history for the last time an MVP or Champion or whatever was on his 3rd team in 3 years when it happened, or heck, even his 3rd team at all.

Good. Gimmie the Latrin take on Howard signing with the Rockets!

I think it's going to end up in disaster.

Latrinsorm

07-06-2013, 12:07 AM

At this point I really would not be surprised if he changes his mind again by Wednesday, plus I want to see if Houston ends up giving up pieces for him.

thefarmer

07-06-2013, 12:12 AM

At this point I really would not be surprised if he changes his mind again by Wednesday, plus I want to see if Houston ends up giving up pieces for him.

I know Asik wants to leave, but who can blame him? They've already given away those two semi-good shooters, and will probably attempt to dump Lin (LINSENSITIVE!) and just dumped the paranoid flyer rookie. I'm not sure they even need to give up more than a few bench guys, but will probably want to clear out more space to go after Josh Smith (whom I have no real feelings about yet).

SHAFT

07-06-2013, 12:14 AM

Looks like he's signing with Houston, for the 2nd time. Whew, it's over!

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nba/210987/dwight-howard-will-sign-with-the-rockets

Naturally I'm bummed the Lakers got nothing for him, but whatever. They have a shit ton of cap space in 2014. They'll figure something out.

For Rockets fans, namely you Farmer, wait until he realizes James Harden is a better player than he is and the offense STILL won't go through him. He wanted to be the man and he's not going to be that in Houston! He has no offensive game! If they bring in Josh Smith he's doubly fucked! Or wait until Kevin Mchale yells at him too loud during practice or the Rockets fans boo him the first time. I like James Harden a lot, but I'll never root for the Rockets with Howard on their team. Complete and total fuckface.

SHAFT

07-06-2013, 12:16 AM

Farmer, I think you want Josh Smith on the Rockets. A trio of Harden, Smith, and Howard is the real deal. As much as I hate to admit it.

thefarmer

07-06-2013, 12:19 AM

Maybe there's a light at the end of the tunnel?

WE CAN TRADE HOWARD NEXT YEAR FOR LEBRON?!?!?!?!?!!!!!

SHAFT

07-06-2013, 12:25 AM

In the west next year:

1. OKC
2. GS
3. SA
4. HOU
5. LAC
6. MEM
7. DEN
8. LAL

Golden State has a killer roster right now. If Bogut can stay healthy, look out.

Latrinsorm

07-06-2013, 12:26 AM

Whew, it's over!Fool me once...
Farmer, I think you want Josh Smith on the Rockets. A trio of Harden, Smith, and Howard is the real deal. As much as I hate to admit it.Smith and Howard would be fabulous defensively and a train wreck offensively. They're both players who love inefficient plays (long 2s for Smith, post-ups for Howard), they're both even worse than the mediocre average at them, and they're both head cases. And as we're seeing with Miami, three max or near-max deals get very hard to manage. Josh Smith is not an elite player, you can't risk that for him.

SHAFT

07-06-2013, 12:28 AM

But I provided evidence!

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1041/dwight-howard

SHAFT

07-06-2013, 02:09 AM

Kobe stopped following Dwight Howard on twitter! Oh snap!

Geijon Khyree

07-06-2013, 02:37 AM

Howard is the most whiny bitch ever to play the game of basketball and Funny or Die made a Lebron flop video. Seriously I hate that dude. He's the most god quoting, I want to have fun, obvious crybaby phd hater ever.

SHAFT

07-06-2013, 04:20 PM

Josh Smith signed with DET. There goes HOU's chance at a big 3. They'll have to make some trades to get there.

Stretch

07-06-2013, 05:55 PM

What's the average drop off for a player in the season after signing a contract/extension?

Latrinsorm

07-06-2013, 06:48 PM

But I provided evidence!

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1041/dwight-howardIf I see a notarized picture of the signed contract (that is also notarized) then I will believe it.
Howard is the most whiny bitch ever to play the game of basketball and Funny or Die made a Lebron flop video. Seriously I hate that dude. He's the most god quoting, I want to have fun, obvious crybaby phd hater ever.On the other hand, this is the third elite center who has left LA while Kobe played for the Lakers. Just throwing that out there.

Dwight gave the Lakers 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game last year, and that was fighting with Kobe for every shot. The last players to do that not named Dwight Howard were Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan in 2004, and only 15 guys have done it since 1974 (when blocks were first recorded). For all his faults, guys with Dwight's production don't just grow on trees.

.

The Cavs are looking a little feisty.

point Irving, Jack
wing Waiters, Gee
big Varejao, Clark, Thompson, maybe Bennett

Not a championship contender, but outside of Miami and Indiana is any East team clearly better than them? Maybe the Hawks? Bulls and Nets have question marks (I guess the Bulls only have a single question mark, but it's HUGE), Knicks are a joke, Celtics and Bucks got blown up.
What's the average drop off for a player in the season after signing a contract/extension?One of the very few gaps in basketball-reference's data is contract changes, so your guess is as good as mine.

SHAFT

07-06-2013, 10:16 PM

Clip of shaq on Dwight Howard:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9454960/shaquille-oneal-blasts-dwight-howard-says-los-angeles-spotlight-was-too-big

tyrant-201

07-06-2013, 10:17 PM

Clip of shaq on Dwight Howard:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9454960/shaquille-oneal-blasts-dwight-howard-says-los-angeles-spotlight-was-too-big

Saw that. Fricken hilarious.

Latrinsorm

07-07-2013, 07:48 PM

Asik wants a trade, Rockets(/Astros?) would rather have an elite back-up center so gtfo (but with your trade request, not you personally).

I don't know the guy personally, but if he keeps playing hard this makes the Rockets a LOT more interesting. Is he the best back-up center in the league by a mile or by two miles? How much is that worth? The Grizzlies get a lot of mileage out of "we're big and we beat up those 3-point shooting sissies!" but they've never been to the Finals, lost to the friggin' Clippers in the first round last year, and have won 3 playoff series in the 4 years they've had Z-Bo and li'l Gasol. (Miami won 4 playoff series each of the last two years with a center to whom Z-Bo would give wedgies every day.)

More importantly, what could the Rockets get for him at this point, especially at $15m next year? It seems like the priority for the Rockets would be to trade Lin's equally paisanish contract, although moving him to the bench for Patrick Beverly (who impossibly is 1 year older) might work just as well.

Latrinsorm

07-07-2013, 11:46 PM

I give Ramona Shelburne a lot of grief but I thought she phrased this point very well:

"General manager Mitch Kupchak led the campaign to keep Howard and remains the most public voice of the front office. Executive vice president of player personnel Jim Buss holds considerable power, but prefers -- at least for now -- to stay in the background. Executive vice president of business operations Jeanie Buss and her fiancée, former Lakers coach Phil Jackson, also hold considerable power, but are trying to stay in their lanes and keep their relationships with current players low-key."

Of course we all know about Phil's bizarre relationship with the Lakers, but putting it in this context really underlines how 100% historically unique it is. Is it possible to even conceive of a weirder relationship for an ex-coach to have with a current team? Even if Pat Riley's kid (presumably named Pat Son-of-Pat-Riley-Senior Riley Jr., yes the whole thing, yes every time) was the GM and owner of the Heat, it wouldn't be as vague, looming, and just plain weird. And now let me criticize Miz Shelburne:

"That's a tremendous amount of political clout inside one organization, but that's how it's always been for the Lakers."

I don't remember too many stories about John Kundla wandering around the Coliseum offering criticisms of Jerry West. Hell, he's still alive and didn't once tweet about Shaq going to the Miami Marlins. I also don't remember Red Auerbach's kids (Rusty and Roja[DISCO???]) engaging in power struggles over trading Cornbread. This is some new shit we have going on in LA. Fabulously unreassuring quote:

"The relationship between Jeanie Buss and Jim Buss has improved somewhat."

Are we talking 1963 USA-USSR or what? Yeesh. And I love, love, love, that this is still the party line:

"But Howard is the needy sort."

God! What's with this Howard guy? Who wouldn't want to watch Kobe take 25 shots a game? I mean, besides Shaq, Pau, Bynum, and Phil Jackson, who have publicly and repeatedly criticized Kobe for doing so? But at least they never left LA! ...I'm being informed that 75% of them actually did leave LA, and Pau would have if not for the Angel of Stern.

"That's especially true after the team had shown encouraging signs by going 28-12 in the second half of the season, when Howard acquiesced to running D'Antoni's offense with more gusto, and D'Antoni bent some of his philosophies to better fit the roster."

"the team", lol. For the record, here are the records of the Lakers in games played by each of three players chosen completely at random...
Kobe: 42-36, 53.8%
Dwight: 42-34, 55.3%
Pau: 27-22, 55.1%
...those needy big men!! Why don't they stay out of Kobe's way?!?!?!?

"Bryant and Nash were stunned. He'd never told them any of this before, or asked them to defend him publicly. They'd known he was injured and appreciated he came back to play many months before the initial time frame given following his back surgery, but the code among players is that if you don't say anything to your teammates about an injury, it's something you can handle on your own."

Kobe especially was stunned, after Howard had made public comments about how other unnamed players dealing with injuries should "put their big boy pants on". Wait... that was Kobe? Huh. Well the code only says when you should help, it doesn't say you can't pile on with criticism! Show me the section where it says you can't. Show me the receipts.

.

It's inconceivable to me how Kobe, who we all agree chased a HOF center and coach out of town (at least) once in the past, is getting no criticism whatsoever for Howard leaving.

SHAFT

07-08-2013, 12:21 AM

Dwight Howard had every right to leave. I don't blame him. The rockets and warriors were better situations. I think Howard made the right decision, the best in a long time, by choosing Houston.

I said it before, this falls squarely on the shoulders of Jim buss. They fucked up by hiring d'antoni. I was stunned when I heard the announcement that they chose d'antoni over Phil Jackson. They didn't even give Phil until the agreed upon time to come to a decision.

Here's why I criticize Dwight Howard. It is based on his decision making:

- demands to be traded from Orlando
- signs one year tender with Orlando after previously demanding to be traded. Spouts off about loyalty and commitment.
- goes to Orlando management and demands that can Gundy is fired.
- after van Gundy openly admits to all of this, Dwight appears at a press conference with van Gundy and is all smiles, puts his arm around van Gundy.
- van Gundy later gets fired.
- Dwight continues to demand to be traded
- Dwight lands in La
- Dwight is seen around town. Appears to be happy. Can be seen usually at ice cream parlors.
- practice begins, Dwight isn't happy
- Dwight lets the world know he wants Phil Jackson as his coach
- mike brown is fired like 6 games in. Instead of the lakers hiring Phil Jackson, Jim buss chooses d'antoni. He can't allow Jeanie and Phil to have all of the power in laker-land. He has to forge his own path. Thinks d'antoni is the "best fit for the roster". Please. Blow me.
- Dwight injures his labia, errrrr labrum. Misses time. Kobe talks mad shit. Dwight comes back very soon after.
- Dwight somehow gets voted onto the allstar team. Popovich busts his balls during an all star practice about being goofing off and being immature. Jerry buss dies soon after. Dwight comes out of all star weekend and plays well until the end of the season.
- end of the season after getting swept by the spurs, Dwight is seen stomping off of the court and passes kupchak while talking shit . "You better fix this" is along the lines of what was said to kupchak.
- So is the end of a season in which Dwight's numbers drop big time. He's often criticized for being soft and generally not caring. Being immature. Not to mention the incident in the locker room after one game where he's seen walking about with a stat sheet openly complaining about getting only 7 shots to anyone who'll listen.
- he openly tells everyone he's going to explore free agency. He has that right. So be it.
- his camp lets the word get out he dislikes d'antoni's system as the main reason he wants to leave. His dislike for Kobe 2nd.
- he tells the world he'll decide his team July 5th. On July 5th he plays his cards fairly straight. Handles things well. He chooses the rockets. Well, 2 hours later word gets out he's still not decided and the lakers are 50/50. After his camp said Houston. After that he sticks with Houston.
- blames the media for all of the stories that leaked over the year. Takes no responsibility for anything. Consistently blames everyone else.

He's a bitch. He couldn't handle Kobe, couldn't handle not getting his way, doesn't know how to make a decision properly, can't handle criticism, can't handle a big market. The guy has like 5 kids from 5 different women.

Not a fan of Dwight. Forgive the rant please. If any if that was misplaced or if I missed a Dwight fun-fact I was going off the top of my head. I can't stand by idly and watch someone blame Kobe for Dwight leaving. His saga isn't over. Wait until he doesn't like something about mchale or James harden shoots 32 times in a game. He'll fuck it up.

SHAFT

07-08-2013, 12:51 AM

Stephen a smith on popovich cursing out Dwight - http://nesn.com/2013/02/report-gregg-popovich-cursed-out-dwight-howard-during-all-star-game-because-he-wasnt-paying-attention/

Stan van Gundy on Dwight wanting him out - http://m.espn.go.com/nba/story?storyId=7778991&src=desktop

Latrinsorm

07-08-2013, 01:01 AM

I didn't say Kobe was to blame, or that Howard was a saint. I said Kobe deserved more than no criticism whatsoever, and I further implied that the lake-stream media's slurping up Kobe to no end totally undermines their credibility.

This is distinguished from my slurping up LeBron to no end because LeBron actually is that awesome. :yes:

SHAFT

07-08-2013, 08:08 PM

Lakers got Chris Kaman for one year. I like it. He's the best available big man and they can rent him for the year. Someone else can have Bynum.

tyrant-201

07-08-2013, 08:10 PM

Lakers got Chris Kaman for one year. I like it. He's the best available big man and they can rent him for the year. Someone else can have Bynum.

Send Bynum to Houston. That way Bynum can rest the entire year, and Howard can commiserate with him about his own overblown injuries.

Latrinsorm

07-09-2013, 12:33 AM

Like with Asik, I'm not sure how much impact a backup center can really have, and this is assuming D'Antoni even plays him. But it's only a 1 year deal, so no biggie either way.

Latrinsorm

07-09-2013, 03:00 PM

The Cavs are looking a little feisty.

point Irving, Jack
wing Waiters, Gee
big Varejao, Clark, Thompson, maybe Bennett

Not a championship contender, but outside of Miami and Indiana is any East team clearly better than them? Maybe the Hawks? Bulls and Nets have question marks (I guess the Bulls only have a single question mark, but it's HUGE), Knicks are a joke, Celtics and Bucks got blown up.Cavs have now offered a contract to Bynum. Clark is a true forward more than a big, Bennett could end up the same way and it wouldn't kill him to sit most of his first year. I think getting Bynum would make the Cavs clearly the 3rd best team in the East... if everyone stays healthy. Even though it's somewhat due to a lot of the teams ahead of them last year imploding, it would still be a very impressive turnaround.

Latrinsorm

07-09-2013, 10:06 PM

Chris Andersen keeping his talents in South Beach (http://espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/story/_/id/9464782/chris-andersen-re-sign-miami-heat-sources). Relatively important because they have negative room to get anyone else, but mostly citing because of this line:

"where he emerged as the Heat's best big man after joining the team in January."

Suck on that, Chris Bosh!!!(?) Seems like an odd omission.

SHAFT

07-09-2013, 10:28 PM

Latrinsorm

07-09-2013, 11:39 PM

How else am I supposed to get an erection?

Latrinsorm

07-10-2013, 08:17 PM

So even though Dwight hasn't won MVP, he is 30th in MVP Award Shares and everyone ahead of him either won it, wasn't traded until the twilight of his career (Ewing), or is still active (Paul). Of the 29 players to actually win MVP, 12 played with 1 team for their whole career and 2 basically did (Cousy and Cowens came out of retirement as pranks). Of the remaining 15, there were 13 cases where a player played 1 year or less for a team:

Moses Malone twice at the end of his career, more on him later
Karl Malone at the end
Steve Nash if he retires today
Kevin Garnett if he retires on Friday
Allen Iverson three times at the end
Shaq twice at the end
Hakeem at the end
Bob McAdoo once at the end and twice during, making him the only comparable case to Howard...

After playing 4.5 years with the then-Braves and winning the MVP, he was traded to the Knicks basically for cash, where he played the equivalent of 2 seasons before again being traded mid-season to the Celtics for 3 first rounders. At the end of that season, he was traded for 2 first rounders "as compensation for Boston signing veteran free agent M.L. Carr", apparently that was a thing. He played 1.5 seasons for the Pistons before being waived outright in midseason and picked up by the Nets. At the end of that season, he was traded for 1 second rounder to the Lakers, where he finally won a championship in 1982, his first year with the team.

However, he started out a part-time player for those Lakers, playing in 41 games for 18 minutes each in the regular season before playing in all 14 playoff games for 28 each. Obviously this is not the plan with Howard, but there is precedent for a player in the top 30 of MVP Share to play with 3 NBA teams in 3 years during the middle of his career.

.

Moses Malone had a really bizarre start to his NBA career. Although I can find no record of him ever having been drafted by an NBA team, the Jazz held his rights during the ABA Dispersal Draft, but waived them to get their pick back in the draft proper. It wouldn't be the first time the NBA just invented picks (see Stepian), but there are only 22 picks in the 1977 draft, one for every team...? Anyway the Trail Blazers took him, but two months later and only 5 days before the start of the regular season, they traded him to the Braves for a draft pick. Two games later, the Braves in turn traded him to the Rockets for 2 draft picks. Those picks turned into, in order: Rick Robey, Wesley Cox, and Michael Ray Richardson.

Moses went on to win two MVPs for Houston, then an MVP and Championship his first year with the 76ers, then he played for another 12 years and 5 teams without doing much of note.

Latrinsorm

07-11-2013, 08:06 PM

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/68152/the-2012-13-courtvision-awards-leading-scorers

Goldsberry really drives me crazy some times:

"Kobe Bryant is one of the most proficient elbow shooters of all time. Using a combination of great footwork, sneaky veteran tricks, and a battle-tested jumper, Kobe can get his team a decent scoring chance in almost any possession, a skill that seems very undervalued in conventional player assessments. This past season, Kobe’s jump shooting was more concentrated than ever, as he chucked up a ton of shots near that right elbow. Late-era Kobe provides a great role model for younger superstars seeking ways to extend their offensive half-life despite declining athleticism.

No player in the NBA shoots more midrange shots than LaMarcus Aldridge. The guy is in love with 2-point jumpers. As a result, he led the league in scoring around the left elbow, which is a testament more to his volume than his efficiency. Aldridge hits these shots at a rate that is only slightly above the league average. As he matures, it will be interesting to see if his efficiency improves; if it does he will become both a very effective scorer and an important spacing agent for his teammates."

10-23 feet
NBA average - 39.3%
Kobe Bryant - 43.1%
LaMarcus Aldridge - 43.2%

All the stuff about Kobe creating his own shot is very correct (22.5% of made shots assisted to 56.9% for the NBA and way up to 64.4% for LA). But how can you seriously talk about Aldridge being only slightly above average and how his efficiency could(/should) mature when you didn't say a single thing about that for the guy who shot objectively worse? Come on, now.

Latrinsorm

07-12-2013, 08:17 PM

This isn't just Goldberry, obviously, there are 0 writers who publicly talk about the standard deviation, but he makes it easy (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/68279/the-2012-13-courtvision-awards-the-bricklayers) so...

Of particular note, Iguodala going 11 of 56 and Gallo going 26 of 108 from particular areas of the floor, for %s of 19.6% and 24.1%. Hello, McFly, hello, these are obviously bad %s... or are they? What if I told you the scientifically rigorous method of expressing these %s were 19.6% ± 10.6% and 24.1% ± 8.2% respectively? Obviously 30% is nothing to brag about, but the point is that it overlaps with their season averages when we do the ±s for both, and I want to make this absolutely clear. Gallo shot 24.1% from the right wing and 37.3% overall, and these numbers (due to the samples involved) are absolutely indistinguishable, because 24.1 + 8.2 > 32.2 < 37.1 - 5.1.

Science works; even in sports, John Brenkus.

Is Andre a good three point shooter? No. But the idea that he is adequate from one side from the court and horrible from the other is not statistically sustainable, in very very much the same way that a player can't actually suddenly "rise to the occasion", "just know how to win", "have veteran savvy", "embody clutchness", etc. Someday the sports community will embrace Gaussian noise, and will be embarrassed that preceding sports communities blundered along crowning batting champions and clutch shooters by ignoring it.

I look forward to citing this when LeBron "has a championship hangover", "gets too comfortable", "isn't clutch", "doesn't have what it takes" and shoots 37% from 3 next year. We want explanations, but sometimes the explanation is just "numbers don't give a f", brothers.

Latrinsorm

07-16-2013, 10:22 PM

Miller amnestied (http://espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/story/_/id/9482980/miami-heat-waive-mike-miller-amnesty-clause). Very surprising. Miller makes $6.2 this year with a player option for $6.6 next year, Joel Anthony makes $3.8 this year with a player option for the same next year. The difference in salaries only works out to about $6.5m tax saved (they have to pay the actual contracts regardless, the amnesty is only a roster/cap move).

Miller has been hurt a lot, but last year he played 900 minutes in the regular season and 232 in the playoffs (or right around 10 minutes a game over the full stretches) and played well, shooting above 40% from 3. His defense while routinely awkward looking on-ball was not that terrible overall, as the Heat posted a 106.8 DRtg (slightly below average) with him and an excellent 96 when he subbed for Haslem in the starting line-up (in limited minutes). He's a plus on offense and not a killer minus on defense, and as we saw in the Finals his role is not completely covered by Allen and Battier. Similar story the past two years, right around 10 minutes a game for the regular season. 800 quality bench minutes is nothing amazing but it's nothing to sneeze at, and the Heat aren't going to be able to replace that with James Jones.

Especially with Chris Andersen remaining in the fold, Anthony just isn't going to play. He played 71 minutes in the last postseason and scored 6 points while doing so (not 6 points a game, 6 points). He has no offensive game and apparently isn't going to develop one, and LeBron just hates playing with him. He is very good in defense against the pick and roll, but it turns out that Miami's defense with Anthony is even worse than Miami's defense with Miller at 107.3, although a lot of that could be garbage time. The only way I can see it is if UD retires, but (1) it came out he was injured so he should be able to bounce back and (2) if he does, his salary is even closer to Miller's than Anthony's is, so you've got your savings right there. I guess there's only one explanation.

Racism.

But I can see where they're coming from, I wouldn't want to have a gringo on my Florida team right now either.

.

Because of various rules, the only teams that can fully bid on Miller are Dallas, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Sacramento, which... must be extremely unappetizing to Miller. Dallas wouldn't be horrible, I guess?

Latrinsorm

07-17-2013, 04:27 PM

Lakers (http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/9484776/los-angeles-lakers-eye-carmelo-anthony-lebron-james-2014) gunning for LeBron (no duh), but also rumbling about adding LeBron AND Carmelo. Especially with Kobe also being on the team, just no. Stop. Carmelo and Bryant are each incapable of playing the #2 role. Carmelo never has, Kobe hasn't in 10 years even when it was clearly in his and the team's best interests to do so. Here are the possible outcomes:

Carmelo and Kobe
We already saw this with Carmelo and AI. It was a disaster (1 playoff win in 2 years, AI traded THREE GAMES into their 3rd year together). And that was when AI was in his 11th year. Kobe will be in his 19th in 2015 (and we already know Miami and Chicago play for the championship that year. Impossible? So is time travel...?!?!). Only 11 players all-time have ever played that far, and only three at a decent level: Stockton, Kidd, Kareem.

LeBron and Kobe
It worked with Wade, why not with Kobe? Because Kobe's got more guts than brains. Usage rate is an imperfect metric, but Wade's last year was below 30 for the first time since his rookie year. Kobe's hasn't been below 31 since 2004. Also remember that it took 2 years for LeBron and Wade to develop any real chemistry on offense, not to mention a supporting cast. (Bibby and Ilgauskas, I mean come on.) Also remember that it still took transcendent performances from each (on both sides of the ball) for Miami to succeed, and LeBron will be on his 12th year in 2015. Admittedly he looks very much like a historically inimitable athletic presence that could still be giving PGs nightmares by that time, but Kobe absolutely did not even before suffering a catastrophic ankle injury, and he used to be a pretty astonishing athletic presence himself, and he didn't have to handle anywhere near the load LeBron has over the years.

All three
Stop. Just stop. They could play with four basketballs and it wouldn't be enough even if you consigned LeBron (the best spot-up shooter of all three, and it's not close) to a strictly spot-up role. Even if LeBron maintains his frightening defensive presence, Kobe will be historically bad by that point and Carmelo is no stopper.

Get rid of Kobe
If they were going to, why didn't they just amnesty him and save tens of millions of dollars at the same time? We could be in for wishy washy decision making, but it seems pretty clear they're going to keep him.

Just Kobe, or Kobe and Joe Johnson or somebody
Winter is coming, Lakerland. You staved it off keeping Kobe over Shaq and miraculously getting Gasol, but you whiffed by keeping Kobe over Dwight and not drawing down any more miraculous fire. Baal is sneering, and the Lord of Hosts is leering, and while flags fly forever they are all dead at the top of their poles.

Atlanteax

07-17-2013, 04:46 PM

Would your assertion be that LeBron would consider LAL because (1) Kobe is extremely passionate about winning (and his 'comeback year' shows mobility still exists), and (2) Wade is probably all bum knees then ?

Latrinsorm

07-17-2013, 05:58 PM

I honestly can't think of a (realistic) scenario where LeBron considers LAL at all. Wade is clearly on the way down, but with an opt-out next year he (and LeBron) can renegotiate for a reduced salary for more rings. I would like to stress can, because Wade is a little bit of a hothead and might not go for it, but it's possible. Same would go for Bosh, but he might be a little sick of nobody caring about Bosh. Or he might love it. Nobody cares enough to ask, so who knows.

Kobe isn't bouncing back even with all the platelets in Germany. Too many miles, too severe an injury, and he's already only been able to keep production up by flagrantly ignoring defense. It's not like he can start playing negative defense, or openly sitting on the bench during defense. (I mean... could he? That would be pretty awesome.) He's always been maniacal about winning, but as his skills have slipped that's been to his detriment, because it's always been about Kobe hitting the game winning shot, not the Lakers winning the game. Check this stat out:

4th quarter (or OT), <= 5 point margin, < 3 minutes left
Assists: 9
Field Goals: 36 of 84 for 43%
(LeBron's ratio, 26 assists to 27 of 68 for 40%, choker.)

I would also like to note that Kobe only recorded 4 turnovers in those conditions: he has always been a very good passer when he feels like it. It's that last clause that's the issue. (LeBron recorded 6, which is a frankly frightening ratio although of course neither are statistically significant.)

.

Again, LeBron's a smart guy. If he isn't desperate for more rings, he's just going to party in Miami for the rest of his career or go back home to Ohio. If he is, he knows his personal window will be closing and he can't go to a rebuilding(/empty) or creaky team. This is what I think people are missing by comparing 2014 free agency to 2010. LeBron was clearly the best player in 2010 and was going to be for several years, Wade was clearly top 5. It would be a big surprise for either to be true come 2014, so if you want LeBron then you (IMO) need to have a nucleus building now. Cleveland (even without homecoming status), Golden State, arguably Indiana, teams like that. What allure does "hey LeBron, come here, this'll be your team to build from scratch" have to a guy with presumably bad knees and championships (not one)?

thefarmer

07-17-2013, 06:02 PM

I'll take LeBron in Houston.

DoctorUnne

07-19-2013, 11:17 AM

Kobe expected back my preseason. What a beast.

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/9490675/kobe-bryant-los-angeles-lakers-return-preseason-jim-buss-says

Latrinsorm

07-19-2013, 06:13 PM

Look, when he shows up with antlers I'm not going to say I told you so.

But I did bloody well tell you so.

Latrinsorm

07-19-2013, 06:16 PM

Also, is Jim Buss the smart one or the dumb one? Dr. Jerry Buss' third biggest mistake after dying and not giving Mrs. Phil Jackson the reins was giving all his kids names starting with J, I can't keep the boys straight.

Latrinsorm

07-25-2013, 07:56 PM

Two recent comments that raised my eyebrows:

Israel Gutierrez: "No matter where the Celtics finished in the standings, as long as Rivers, Garnett and Pierce were anchoring, that team could make a deep playoff run."

2013 - lost in first round
2012 - got to Conference Finals and took Miami to 7, so you could say they were one win from the Finals, but they only got that far by beating the 8 seed 76ers in 7 games in the second round, so you could just as easily say they were (against very inferior competition) one win from not getting to the Conf Finals at all
2011 - lost in second round in 5

Are we sure we weren't collectively overrating the Celtics (pretty dramatically) for the past three years? Should this inform our analysis of the 2014 Nets?

.

Jerry Colangelo a couple days ago: "Kevin Durant is the face of USA basketball going forward.", and a bunch of other vaguely passive-aggressive shots at USMNT players not named Kevin.
Today it's reported that LeBron James' Team USA career likely over (http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--lebron-james--team-usa-career-likely-over-232618301.html).

It's weird because as I've mentioned several times in the past, LeBron was in the top 3 for spot-up shooters this year in the NBA. It would definitely be a lot of miles to go over to Brazil in 2016 and be LEBRON JAMES for 40 minutes a night, but as we saw with Jason Kidd players with just excellent spot-up shooting and a fantastic ability to run offense can make significant contributions. You can never build a team with 12 stars anyway, everyone has to have roles, and I don't see anyone present or future filling those two roles as well as LeBron could in 2016. The only young PGs who can shoot are Curry and maybe Irving, and I wouldn't bet heavy on them even being ambulatory in 2016. (I of course wouldn't bet at all, but you know what I mean.)

Now, it's also possible these stories happened in the reverse order of how they were reported, but still, it seemed weird.

Latrinsorm

07-27-2013, 02:05 PM

I still think the Pacers have a time bomb in Granger, but getting Scola for garbage (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9513617/indiana-pacers-trade-phoenix-suns-luis-scola-publicist) is a major upgrade. This isn't just me being a Heat supporter, but trades like these (and the Utah debacle) are another reason the NBA has to rework the lottery situation. The Suns are made worse by this trade (and pretty dramatically), and it's a bad system that encourages those moves. Putting that aside, here's how the Pacers roster looks to me:

point Hill, Watson
wing Stephenson, George, Copeland
big Hibbert, West, Scola

That's a very legit rotation on paper. The point is a glaring weakness only because the other two areas are so strong, for most teams mediocre point play wouldn't stand out as much. The two biggest question marks are (1) how Scola will react to coming off the bench and (2) what happens with Granger. I think (1) is pretty easy, foreign players never seem to have NBA big head syndrome. (2) is frankly enormous, and to my mind even more important than how the Nets integrate 13 guys who all think they should get the ball the most (because the Nets are a joke and the Pacers are not). Granger is a ball-stopper, a poor shooter, and a surprisingly poor rebounder for his size. He and Rudy Gay are the poster boys for addition by subtraction: both of their traditional teams went further without them than with them. You saw the rotation above, Granger doesn't fit. The move for the Pacers is to trade him and Hill or Watson for a real point guard. Boston is desperate to tank, has a legit point guard, has a semi-sordid history of making unbalanced trades with Celtic legend GMs... just throwing that out there.

Latrinsorm

07-29-2013, 05:54 PM

Greg Oden is a chameleon (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9519116/nba-obstacles-abound-greg-oden-return), baby! Possible teams: Miami, San Antonio, New Orleans, Atlanta, Sacramento. Is there any worse combination of star-crossed players and teams than Greg Oden on the friggin' Kings? Lord have mercy. It would be like Michael Vick playing for the Patriots.

Latrinsorm

07-30-2013, 07:12 PM

Oh my God this D'Antoni interview (http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/9522568/dwight-howard-move-houston-rockets-puzzles-mike-dantoni-los-angeles-lakers).

1. You really can't figure out why Dwight wanted out? Really? Really??? He hates you, he hates Kobe, the Lakers are a trebillion dollars over the cap, James Harden's beard is beardier than all Lakers put together (throughout history). Any one of the latter three is enough reason to vamoose (as coaches are disposable like toilet paper in the NBA), but all four put together and you really can't figure it out?

2. "D'Antoni also detailed the adjustments he has planned for next season, including expanding his 8-9 man rotation to 11 players" bro, you know we keep records of this now, right? You barely played an 8 man rotation last season, not "8-9", and are notorious for short rotations. The mustachioed leopard does not change his spots (Keith Hernandez notwithstanding).

3. "D'Antoni, who believes the Lakers 'can be better than a lot of people think,' added that his longtime point guard, Steve Nash, will be leading the way. 'Just knowing [Nash] and watching him, he's going to have as good of a year as he's had in a while because he's hell-bent on coming back and giving Los Angeles their money's worth because that's the type of person he is,' D'Antoni said.

Ok, this might be a case of editorializing by noted Kobe sycophant Dave McMenamin because the conclusion doesn't really follow from the excerpt... but if D'Antoni honestly prefers to run the offense through 56 year old Steve Nash rather than 33 year old (and two time Finals MVP) (ha ha just kidding, 6 for 24 is an all time great stat by an all time great who just knows how to win as an all time great) Pau Gasol... yeesh.

Latrinsorm

07-30-2013, 08:08 PM

Let me just say I am a little annoyed by the Dwight hate from various public people, including one William Simmons.

Who has a higher career FT%, Dwight Howard or Bill Russell?

As you may have guessed by my asking, it's Dwight. Tell me how this fits with the bullshit narrative of winners, and Dwight doesn't know how to win, and he smiles too much, and Bill Russell is the greatest winner ever and that Jordan fellow got all the calls. The stories are already written; always have been, always will be.

Can you even imagine a worse scenario than last year for Dwight? An aging gunner (who happens to be pathetically incompetent on defense) dominating the ball, and by the way his former coach and two former big men teammates have publicly criticized for doing exactly that, a coach who is such a twit when it comes to NBA bigs that he PUBLICLY asserts that he has no idea why you wouldn't want to play for him, an owner who can't tell his ass from a hole in the ground, negative 40 billion in cap space... seriously, tell me what a worse NBA scenario would be. Pick a team.

And he led the league in rebounds per game! And the Lakers were an average defense with him on the court, which doesn't sound impressive until you are reminded (this is how you remind me) that the Lakers were the 28th worst defense without him. This is seriously where he was supposed to stay, and watch Kobe rush back from a catastrophic injury to limp around and score 12 points on 20 shots a game?

.

I am on board for criticizing him for the bizarro "I'll stay, no I'm out of here, ok I'll stay, hey you guyz blackmailed me!!!" Magic situation, but this Lakers situation is 100% logical once you recognize that Kobe is not the Basketball Jesus. If you don't recognize that, I recommend cancelling your cable until he retires. It's only going to get worse.

Latrinsorm

07-31-2013, 11:54 PM

It turns out Rudy Gay's vision (http://www.slamonline.com/online/the-magazine/features/2013/07/rudy-gay-toronto-raptors/) was so bad he barely got his driver's license. It's pretty astonishing that he couldn't be bothered to fix it until now, and that he was able to perform at the level he was with basically one eye closed. If he shoots 45% from 3 this year should we start calling him Kenpachi?

Latrinsorm

08-01-2013, 09:15 PM

Adande made a comment in espn's Western Conference thingamajigger (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-130801/made-right-wrong-moves-western-conference) that got me thinking:
"can we really say the Atlanta Hawks are a better team a year after trading Joe Johnson to the Brooklyn Nets?"
2012 Hawks: 50-31 (prorated), +3.4 pts per game, 1st round playoff exit in 6 games as the 5 seed
2013 Hawks: 44-38, +0.5, 1st round playoff exit in 6 games as the 6 seed

So we wouldn't say better, but I don't think we would say all that much worse either. Let's also look at the full rotations:

2012
Smith
Johnson
Teague
Marvin Williams
Pachulia
Willie Green
Johnson
Hinrich
McGrady
Vlad Rad

2013
Smith
Horford
Teague
Korver
Devin Harris
Johnson
Jenkins
Pachulia
Stevenson
Tolliver

There's a lot of turnover, obviously, so it would be a little ridiculous to say it's entirely due to one guy or another. Our total swap ends up being...

Marvin Williams -> Korver (upgrade)
Willie Green -> Stevenson (wash) (significant upgrade in neck tattoos)
Hinrich -> Harris (downgrade)
Radmonivich -> Tolliver (wash)
McGrady -> Jenkins (slight downgrade)

and then Johnson -> Horford, effectively.

I think this is a useful way of thinking about the entire Nets roster, even putting aside the (staggering) chemistry issues. It's easy to think "that guy's an All-Star, that guy's an All-Star, the entire team are All-Stars", but for some of these guys their ex-teams didn't seem too bothered by their departure, either on the court or in the blogs.

Deron Williams: Jazz were 29-24 with him and only 10-19 without him in 2011, but they would have missed the playoffs at that rate and made the playoffs the next year.

Joe Johnson: covered above

Kirilenko: will be celebrating his 10 year anniversary of being in the All-Star game. Not for nothing, but Rashard Lewis was only 4 years removed from his second (and possibly final) All-Star appearance last year, when he could hardly sniff the court for the two-time NBA Champion Heat.

Garnett: a top 20 all time player to me, but can't play PF at his age (and hasn't in years), so either he or Lopez has to come off the bench, either one of which has pretty serious potential consequences. Career low in MP/G last year except for when he was 19 playing SF for the Twolves, lowest WS/48 and PER since 1997.

Pierce: similar story, career low in MP/G, 2nd lowest WS/48 of career (ahead of 2004, inexplicably the worst mark of his career). Or put another way: the 2014 Nets will have 2 of the top 5 active players in career minutes played: Garnett #1, Pierce #5. The rest of the top 10: Bryant, Allen, Duncan, Nowitzki, Nash, Andre Miller, Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter. A lot of good players in that list, but they're all very, very old, and only getting older (except Duncan, who let's face it is apparently a voodoo warlock).

Latrinsorm

08-03-2013, 12:09 AM

Oden Heat.

I think it's been really interesting to watch the chess match between the Heat and Pacers this off-season. The Pacers were big and strong but miserable shooting and at the point, so they got C.J. Watson, Luis Scola, Chris Copeland. The Heat were terrifying shooters but a little slim in the middle so they effectively swapped Miller for Oden, and while both guys probably need a permanent "if healthy" label it does make the Heat a lot more physically imposing.

Still I think the biggest changes for each team will come from health: if Granger is healthy, how do the Pacers work him in? Every starter was happy with their touches and minutes last year. Watson and Copeland are bench guys, that's fine. Scola and Granger have started 88% and 82% of their career games respectively, will they be happy coming off the bench? I wouldn't have guessed Scola had started more of his games by % than Granger, and I definitely wouldn't have guessed he has better passing stats: Scola is 1.9 assists to 1.7 turnovers and 11.7 FGA (1.108, 0.165), Granger is 2.0 assists to 2.0 turnovers and 14.0 FGA (1.011, 0.144). It takes some real doing to get below the 1 Ast/Tov ratio as a wing player, Granger has done it in 5 of 8 seasons.

For Miami, a healthy Wade and Haslem change everything. Or LeBron gets a staph infection from a splinter while voting for himself for NBPA head and they lose in the second round. Maybe Wade will get hurt every year, or maybe he'll rediscover the health clutchness he displayed from 2009 to 2011 when he only missed 14 games in 3 years.