Ravens or 49ers, who wins?

[Solkern]

Who do you think wins it?

[Solkern]

I still don't know why the Ravens get no love. Beat Manning, beat Brady, still a huge underdog.

Flacco gets shit on all the time, Matt Ryan gets praised, yet Flacco has done far more for his team in the same amount of time, than Ryan....someone explain why this is.

How is Ryan such a "better" quarterback than Flacco....when Flacco has accomplished so much more.

This fucking Elite quarterback talk is fucking stupid as shit too.

[diethx]

I voted for who I hope wins it.

[Stanley Burrell]

1st

[Xorai]

The under is the winner.

[RichardCranium]

I still don't know why the Ravens get no love. Beat Manning, beat Brady, still a huge underdog.

Flacco gets shit on all the time, Matt Ryan gets praised, yet Flacco has done far more for his team in the same amount of time, than Ryan....someone explain why this is.

How is Ryan such a "better" quarterback than Flacco....when Flacco has accomplished so much more.

This fucking Elite quarterback talk is fucking stupid as shit too.

He isn't better. Matty Ice should be called Matty Melt. Fuck that guy.

Fuck the 49ers too.

[Latrinsorm]

I still don't know why the Ravens get no love. Beat Manning, beat Brady, still a huge underdog.

Flacco gets shit on all the time, Matt Ryan gets praised, yet Flacco has done far more for his team in the same amount of time, than Ryan....someone explain why this is.

How is Ryan such a "better" quarterback than Flacco....when Flacco has accomplished so much more.The Ravens accomplishing more is not equal to Flacco accomplishing more. Ryan has a better passer rating regular season and postseason, does so with more attempts per game, gets sacked a lot less, in the past couple years has played with a worse running game, and except for this year has played with a significantly worse defense.

That's it in a nutshell, anyway.

[g++]

The Ravens accomplishing more is not equal to Flacco accomplishing more. Ryan has a better passer rating regular season and postseason, does so with more attempts per game, gets sacked a lot less, in the past couple years has played with a worse running game, and except for this year has played with a significantly worse defense.

That's it in a nutshell, anyway.

If Matt Ryan played in the AFC north he would be in a wheel chair by now.

[AnticorRifling]

If Matt Ryan played in the AFC north he would be in a wheel chair by now.

Holy shit you're alive. I guess I lose that bet.

[Sean of the Thread]

still a huge underdog.



TIL hovering around +3 = a huge underdog.

[g++]

Holy shit you're alive. I guess I lose that bet.

Yah, after slaving at work and school for a month, graduating and finishing my work projects I looked at the patch notes and saw what they did to mages and was like....meh. I just don't feel like playing right now especially when my favorite character has been castrated and forced to play arcane.

[g++]

TIL hovering around +3 = a huge underdog.

Another thing too keep in mind is most sports betting is not rational and is not even attempting to predict the game. They just try to get as much money on each side as possible so they can collect the fees and make money regardless of the outcome. So when you have a small market team like Baltimore they will almost always be an underdog just because they have less fans to place irrational bets.

[SHAFT]

I got the 9ers on the ML -170. I think they smoke Baltimore

[Latrinsorm]

If Matt Ryan played in the AFC north he would be in a wheel chair by now.Isn't it weird how few football players we see in regular wheel chairs? The only ones I can remember are the paralyzed from the neck down kind. It seems like it would be a lot more frequent.

[g++]

I didn't quite mean literally. What I meant was, I would enjoy seeing Matt Ryan leave his 10 dome a year dregs of the NFC tour and maintain his sparkling resume playing the steelers, bengals and pats in the wind. To ignore where and who Ryan plays and point at his passer rating compared to Flacco is silly. Its like comparing the steelers kicker to the rest of the nfl in a vacuum ignoring that half of the field for half of his games hes kicking into a tornado. Its not logical.

[Bobmuhthol]

I thought they cancelled the Super Bowl after the Patriots lost? Whatever, man, ELITE QB JOE FLACCO.

[Candor]

The Ravens will win. Perhaps by a lot, if the 49ers play like they did during the 1st quarter against Atlanta.

[Latrinsorm]

I didn't quite mean literally.But it is interesting, right?
What I meant was, I would enjoy seeing Matt Ryan leave his 10 dome a year dregs of the NFC tour and maintain his sparkling resume playing the steelers, bengals and pats in the wind. To ignore where and who Ryan plays and point at his passer rating compared to Flacco is silly. Its like comparing the steelers kicker to the rest of the nfl in a vacuum ignoring that half of the field for half of his games hes kicking into a tornado. Its not logical.That's fair, Joe Flacco does have to go up against the Tiger-striped Titans of Cincinnati. Let's look at strength of schedule. Over the last five years the Ravens are at exactly 0, which frankly is pretty suspicious, the Falcons are at -0.2. Seems pretty even to me.

Let's look at in vs. out for each QB. Ryan this year had a 109.0 rating outdoors, 93.1 indoors; suck on that, physics. Flacco didn't play any dome games this year, but in the handful of games he has his rating has been in the 100+ range. With that said, look at his opponents: 2009 Vikes (6th worst pass defense), 2010 Falcons (14th best) and Texans (dead last), 2011 Rams (10th best), and that's it. That's an aggregate of lousy and a small sample size.

Let's look at their divisional play. Flacco's rating of 83.5 against the AFC North is worse than his overall but not by much, what's really killing him is the 11 games he played against the AFC South with a 75.4 rating. Monsieur Ice also has a worse rating against his own division but not by much: 87.2 to 90.9. He actually has a 93.3 rating against the AFC North, albeit in 4 games. Flacco is +7.7 against the NFC overall, Ryan is bizarrely +8.0 against the AFC; suck on that, logic.

It would be intuitive that Ryan had done worse outside and against tough guy teams, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

[g++]

But it is interesting, right?That's fair, Joe Flacco does have to go up against the Tiger-striped Titans of Cincinnati. Let's look at strength of schedule. Over the last five years the Ravens are at exactly 0, which frankly is pretty suspicious, the Falcons are at -0.2. Seems pretty even to me.

Let's look at in vs. out for each QB. Ryan this year had a 109.0 rating outdoors, 93.1 indoors; suck on that, physics. Flacco didn't play any dome games this year, but in the handful of games he has his rating has been in the 100+ range. With that said, look at his opponents: 2009 Vikes (6th worst pass defense), 2010 Falcons (14th best) and Texans (dead last), 2011 Rams (10th best), and that's it. That's an aggregate of lousy and a small sample size.

Let's look at their divisional play. Flacco's rating of 83.5 against the AFC North is worse than his overall but not by much, what's really killing him is the 11 games he played against the AFC South with a 75.4 rating. Monsieur Ice also has a worse rating against his own division but not by much: 87.2 to 90.9. He actually has a 93.3 rating against the AFC North, albeit in 4 games. Flacco is +7.7 against the NFC overall, Ryan is bizarrely +8.0 against the AFC; suck on that, logic.

It would be intuitive that Ryan had done worse outside and against tough guy teams, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

2012 Stregth of schedule

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/56896/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule

Post season passer rating

(Ryan was not actually better then Flacco)

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

I'm not going back 5 years I am debating in the present. Ryan had a soft schedule all year and when he ran up against a good defense (San Fran) he had 2 turn overs and lost the game, just like Flacco does occasionally. The bengals do have a good defense believe it or not.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Better than the steelers this year in pass defense actually.

[Latrinsorm]

Ok, but people don't base their relative assessments of the two QBs based on this year alone, and certainly not on the 2 or 3 postseason games either QB has played so far this year.

The "use last year to calculate SoS" scheme is fine in April, but when we've played the season there are more robust metrics. The Falcons still had a relatively soft schedule (a little higher at 20th) but the Ravens end up at 17th instead of T4th.

[g++]

Ok, but people don't base their relative assessments of the two QBs based on this year alone, and certainly not on the 2 or 3 postseason games either QB has played so far this year.

The "use last year to calculate SoS" scheme is fine in April, but when we've played the season there are more robust metrics. The Falcons still had a relatively soft schedule (a little higher at 20th) but the Ravens end up at 17th instead of T4th.

When I looked up adjusted strength of schedule for 2012 the falcons come up 32nd on ESPN and everywhere else I try to look. Not sure where you found 20th.

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/46181/a-look-at-adjusted-strength-of-schedules

Evaluating this years performance is a better indicator of performance for next year then adding in data points for when the ravens top receiver was Derrick Mason and their offensive plan of attack was to have Willis McGahee run into people until he was injured. They aren't even the same teams as they were 5 years ago and they weren't playing the same teams so how does using that data equate to the present?

[Latrinsorm]

When I looked up adjusted strength of schedule for 2012 the falcons come up 32nd on ESPN and everywhere else I try to look. Not sure where you found 20th.

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/46181/a-look-at-adjusted-strength-of-schedulesI was using football-reference's metric, which is much more obscure and therefore better. Hipster stats.
Evaluating this years performance is a better indicator of performance for next year then adding in data points for when the ravens top receiver was Derrick Mason and their offensive plan of attack was to have Willis McGahee run into people until he was injured. They aren't even the same teams as they were 5 years ago and they weren't playing the same teams so how does using that data equate to the present?It may well be, but we're not talking about predicting next year, we're talking about the evaluation of the QBs up to this point. "Flacco gets shit on all the time, Matt Ryan gets praised, yet Flacco has done far more for his team in the same amount of time, than Ryan....someone explain why this is. How is Ryan such a "better" quarterback than Flacco....when Flacco has accomplished so much more.", and then I responded, and then you responded, and then NO AND THEN. It turns out that over the entire period, the Falcons have played about the same strength of schedule as the Ravens even though the Ravens are in a traditionally more imposing division. It has also been the case that Matt Ryan played better against the AFC North and in general plays better outside.

That there has been significant turnover in both teams over this period is true, but I'm not sure to what it is relevant.

[Solkern]

I was using football-reference's metric, which is much more obscure and therefore better. Hipster stats.It may well be, but we're not talking about predicting next year, we're talking about the evaluation of the QBs up to this point. "Flacco gets shit on all the time, Matt Ryan gets praised, yet Flacco has done far more for his team in the same amount of time, than Ryan....someone explain why this is. How is Ryan such a "better" quarterback than Flacco....when Flacco has accomplished so much more.", and then I responded, and then you responded, and then NO AND THEN. It turns out that over the entire period, the Falcons have played about the same strength of schedule as the Ravens even though the Ravens are in a traditionally more imposing division. It has also been the case that Matt Ryan played better against the AFC North and in general plays better outside.

That there has been significant turnover in both teams over this period is true, but I'm not sure to what it is relevant.

I actually never responded to you, but anyways, Matt Ryan probably played better against the AFC north, as teams don't know him as well as they know Flacco. They play Flacco twice a year. Teams understand each other much better in their own division.
I believe Flacco has accomplished more in his 5 years then Ryan, Ryan may have better personal stats, but personal stats don't define everything.
If you go by stats, take into account playoff stats, were Flacco has out shined Matt Ryan.

[g++]

I was using football-reference's metric, which is much more obscure and therefore better. Hipster stats.It may well be, but we're not talking about predicting next year, we're talking about the evaluation of the QBs up to this point. "Flacco gets shit on all the time, Matt Ryan gets praised, yet Flacco has done far more for his team in the same amount of time, than Ryan....someone explain why this is. How is Ryan such a "better" quarterback than Flacco....when Flacco has accomplished so much more.", and then I responded, and then you responded, and then NO AND THEN. It turns out that over the entire period, the Falcons have played about the same strength of schedule as the Ravens even though the Ravens are in a traditionally more imposing division. It has also been the case that Matt Ryan played better against the AFC North and in general plays better outside.

That there has been significant turnover in both teams over this period is true, but I'm not sure to what it is relevant.


Fair enough, I am not making the "Elite" quarterback argument. I think Flacco is a perfect AFC north QB for the Ravens and Ryan is a great QB for the Falcons. As far as im concerned their both very good but as a Ravens fan (The ravens tried to pick up Ryan but could not so took Flacco) the whole Ryan vs Flacco thing is touchy for me I guess. I think their both good but I think Flacco is better for the Ravens. I do think team composition is relevant especially because the ravens offense was so devoid of talent for 2 of the 5 years you are using for comparison. Its like making a 5 year comparison of the heat in basketball. Well...5 years ago they were totally different.

[Latrinsorm]

I actually never responded to you, but anywaysI didn't say you did, but anyways.
Matt Ryan probably played better against the AFC north, as teams don't know him as well as they know Flacco. They play Flacco twice a year. Teams understand each other much better in their own division. I believe Flacco has accomplished more in his 5 years then Ryan, Ryan may have better personal stats, but personal stats don't define everything.Ryan does have better personal stats, and has done so on a worse team.
If you go by stats, take into account playoff stats, were Flacco has out shined Matt Ryan.Which playoff stats do you have in mind? Ryan currently has a better passer rating than Flacco in the postseason.

I really don't care about either guy or team. I'm just giving you plausible reasons why people rate them as they do.
Fair enough, I am not making the "Elite" quarterback argument. I think Flacco is a perfect AFC north QB for the Ravens and Ryan is a great QB for the Falcons. As far as im concerned their both very good but as a Ravens fan (The ravens tried to pick up Ryan but could not so took Flacco) the whole Ryan vs Flacco thing is touchy for me I guess. I think their both good but I think Flacco is better for the Ravens. I do think team composition is relevant especially because the ravens offense was so devoid of talent for 2 of the 5 years you are using for comparison. Its like making a 5 year comparison of the heat in basketball. Well...5 years ago they were totally different.I feel like I have addressed that to a significant degree by looking at the teams' rush offense and defense. Receivers are important, but it's more involved to separate pass offense out into QB and receiver.

[Solkern]

Well if you go by the 4 seasons Matt Ryan went to the post season, and the same 4 seasons Joe Flacco went to the playoffs.. I get this

Joe Flacco
2008 Rating 50.8
2010 Rating 90.0
2011 Rating 96.1
2012 Rating 114.7

Matt Ryan
2008 Rating 72.8
2010 Rating 69.0
2011 Rating 71.1
2012 Rating 105.2

Matt Ryan had 1 better Post Season passer rating than Joe Flacco, in the which the same seasons they both made it to the playoffs

[Latrinsorm]

I'll admit that that is an internally consistent metric by which Flacco rates better. Can you convince me why we should use that rather than the more straightforward career postseason rating?

[g++]

I feel like I have addressed that to a significant degree by looking at the teams' rush offense and defense. Receivers are important, but it's more involved to separate pass offense out into QB and receiver.

I really don't need an abacus to tell me if your best receivers are todd heap and derrick mason both over 30 years old an offense is going to suck through the air. Since we got actual deep threat receivers flacco's numbers have been average in a tough conference and good post season. I am not actually going to do the math but if you redid strength of schedule for defensive rankings instead of wins I have a feeling the strength of schedule difference between the falcons and ravens would not be zero.

[Candor]

The Ravens are going to win. End of story.

[Solkern]

I'll admit that that is an internally consistent metric by which Flacco rates better. Can you convince me why we should use that rather than the more straightforward career postseason rating?

Well it's hard to judge post seasons stats, as Flacco has played a lot more games then Ryan.
Ryan folded hard this year, as he did every other year, While Flacco has outplayed Brady twice, luck and Manning. I think the revamped O line is the biggest difference this post season.
Imagine if Flacco got the protection he got this post season all season long.