Latrinsorm
10-27-2012, 05:28 PM
The common sense answer is "no", or "no, stupid", but I decided to investigate it anyway in two ways:
1. Lakers 0-8 preseason, big deal or no big deal?
The preseason standings I have go back to the 2002 season, so ignoring the 2012 2-game preseason for obvious reasons that leaves us with 10 years. In that span, two teams finished with 0 wins...
The 2009 Charlotte Bobcats, who finished the season in 10th and therefore missed the playoffs, and
The 2008 Miami Heat, who finished 15th.
That's pretty striking! But some of the Lakers' losses this preseason were close: a 5 point loss vs. the Kings, a 6 point loss @ (so to speak) the Clippers, what about teams that finished the preseason with only 1 win? It turns out there have been 14, of which 4 made the playoffs...
The 2011 New Orleans Hornets, who lost in the first round,
The 2008 Cleveland Cavaliers, who lost in the second round,
The 2007 Cleveland Cavaliers, who lost in the Finals, and
The 2002 Philadelphia 76ers (preseason?? preseason?? we're talking about preseason??), who lost in the first round.
Again, pretty striking! Every team in the past 10 full preseasons that got past the first round of the playoffs falls into 2 categories:
A. Had at least 2 wins in the preseason.
B. Had LeBron James.
Of course, just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it can't happen this year.
(For completeness' sake, it hasn't worked out the other way. Utah was undefeated in 2011 preseason and didn't make the playoffs, none of the teams that went x-0 or x-1 the past three years even made the Finals, so we shouldn't be scared of the Raptors based on their 6-1.)
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2. Kobe's Usage rate
The Lakers have 4 elite on paper players, every one of which has the same two concerns: are they still physically capable (either against age or major back surgery) and are they mentally capable of interacting so as to maximize their formidable potential? One possible source of friction is Kobe and Nash, both of whom are used to dominating the ball. One way of measuring this dominance is Usage rate, which takes into account field goal attempts, free throw attempts, and turnovers. For a sanity check, consider the top 5 career Usage rates: Jordan, Wade, James, Iverson, Bryant. Looking pretty good! How about the top 5 single seasons: Bryant, Jordan, Iverson, Wade, Jermaine O'Neal. Jermaine is kind of random, but otherwise it's pretty clear that this is a good metric.
Now, preseason box scores only go back to 2009, so we only have three past years to work with (again dismissing the 2012 preseason entirely):
2009: 22.9 preseason, 32.2 regular
2010: 29.8 pre, 32.3 regular
2011: 34.9 pre, 35.1 regular
2013: 31.6 pre, regular TBD
The values seem almost entirely uncorrelated. We'll just have to wait and see how this dynamic plays out! :)
1. Lakers 0-8 preseason, big deal or no big deal?
The preseason standings I have go back to the 2002 season, so ignoring the 2012 2-game preseason for obvious reasons that leaves us with 10 years. In that span, two teams finished with 0 wins...
The 2009 Charlotte Bobcats, who finished the season in 10th and therefore missed the playoffs, and
The 2008 Miami Heat, who finished 15th.
That's pretty striking! But some of the Lakers' losses this preseason were close: a 5 point loss vs. the Kings, a 6 point loss @ (so to speak) the Clippers, what about teams that finished the preseason with only 1 win? It turns out there have been 14, of which 4 made the playoffs...
The 2011 New Orleans Hornets, who lost in the first round,
The 2008 Cleveland Cavaliers, who lost in the second round,
The 2007 Cleveland Cavaliers, who lost in the Finals, and
The 2002 Philadelphia 76ers (preseason?? preseason?? we're talking about preseason??), who lost in the first round.
Again, pretty striking! Every team in the past 10 full preseasons that got past the first round of the playoffs falls into 2 categories:
A. Had at least 2 wins in the preseason.
B. Had LeBron James.
Of course, just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it can't happen this year.
(For completeness' sake, it hasn't worked out the other way. Utah was undefeated in 2011 preseason and didn't make the playoffs, none of the teams that went x-0 or x-1 the past three years even made the Finals, so we shouldn't be scared of the Raptors based on their 6-1.)
.
2. Kobe's Usage rate
The Lakers have 4 elite on paper players, every one of which has the same two concerns: are they still physically capable (either against age or major back surgery) and are they mentally capable of interacting so as to maximize their formidable potential? One possible source of friction is Kobe and Nash, both of whom are used to dominating the ball. One way of measuring this dominance is Usage rate, which takes into account field goal attempts, free throw attempts, and turnovers. For a sanity check, consider the top 5 career Usage rates: Jordan, Wade, James, Iverson, Bryant. Looking pretty good! How about the top 5 single seasons: Bryant, Jordan, Iverson, Wade, Jermaine O'Neal. Jermaine is kind of random, but otherwise it's pretty clear that this is a good metric.
Now, preseason box scores only go back to 2009, so we only have three past years to work with (again dismissing the 2012 preseason entirely):
2009: 22.9 preseason, 32.2 regular
2010: 29.8 pre, 32.3 regular
2011: 34.9 pre, 35.1 regular
2013: 31.6 pre, regular TBD
The values seem almost entirely uncorrelated. We'll just have to wait and see how this dynamic plays out! :)