NFL pick em season stats

[WRoss]

I'll be posting the stats to this thread from now on.

Update through week 7:

Adhara - 57 of 103
Alfster - 49 of 88
Anticor - 43 of 76
Archamandis - 10 of 16
Ardwen - 62 of 104
Bobmuhthol - 63 of 104
Bregus - 62 of 103
Chaddy - 33 of 62
DoctorUnne - 75 of 102
Drew - 62 of 104
Drinin - 67 of 104
Elgrim - 8 of 16
g++ - 32 of 62
Gibreficul - 62 of 103
GSGeek - 36 of 63
Keller - 66 of 104
Kembal - 59 of 104
Neimanz1 - 56 of 104
Parkbandit - 65 of 104
Revalos - 47 of 91
RichardCranium - 43 of 77
RSR - 65 of 104
SeanoftheThread - 0 of 1
SGardner - 56 of 104
SHAFT - 60 of 104
Solkern - 62 of 104
Soulpieced - 51 of 102
Stabbyrogue - 53 of 103
Suppressed Poet - 19 of 32
tallkris3 - 53 of 88
TheEschaton - 46 of 77
Willington - 61 of 104
WRoss - 64 of 104

[tallkris3]

Win Precentages (Ranked in order):

DoctorUnne - 75 of 102 73.53%
Drinin - 67 of 104 64.42%
Keller - 66 of 104 63.46%
Archamandis - 10 of 16 62.50%
Parkbandit - 65 of 104 62.50%
RSR - 65 of 104 62.50%
WRoss - 64 of 104 61.54%
Bobmuhthol - 63 of 104 60.58%
tallkris3 - 53 of 88 60.23%
Bregus - 62 of 103 60.19%
Gibreficul - 62 of 103 60.19%
TheEschaton - 46 of 77 59.74%
Ardwen - 62 of 104 59.62%
Drew - 62 of 104 59.62%
Solkern - 62 of 104 59.62%
Willington - 61 of 104 58.65%
SHAFT - 60 of 104 57.69%
GSGeek - 36 of 63 57.14%
Kembal - 59 of 104 56.73%
Anticor - 43 of 76 56.58%
RichardCranium - 43 of 77 55.84%
Alfster - 49 of 88 55.68%
Adhara - 57 of 103 55.34%
Neimanz1 - 56 of 104 53.85%
SGardner - 56 of 104 53.85%
Chaddy - 33 of 62 53.23%
Revalos - 47 of 91 51.65%
g++ - 32 of 62 51.61%
Stabbyrogue - 53 of 103 51.46%
Elgrim - 8 of 16 50.00%
Soulpieced - 51 of 102 50.00%
Suppressed Poet - 19 of 32 40.63%
SeanoftheThread - 0 of 1 0.00%

[Drew]

Shize is killing it.

[WRoss]

After Week 8:

Adhara - 65 of 117
Alfster - 49 of 88
Anticor - 43 of 76
Archamandis - 10 of 16
Ardwen - 73 of 118
Bobmuhthol - 72 of 118
Bregus - 72 of 116
Chaddy - 33 of 62
DoctorUnne - 85 of 115
Drew - 66 of 110
Drinin - 77 of 114
Elgrim - 8 of 16
g++ - 32 of 62
Gibreficul - 70 of 117
GSGeek - 43 of 77
Keller - 76 of 118
Kembal - 69 of 118
Neimanz1 - 63 of 118
Parkbandit - 74 of 118
Revalos - 53 of 105
RichardCranium - 43 of 77
RSR - 73 of 118
SeanoftheThread - 0 of 1
SGardner - 56 of 104
SHAFT - 70 of 117
Solkern - 70 of 118
Soulpieced - 60 of 116
Stabbyrogue - 60 of 117
Suppressed Poet - 19 of 32
tallkris3 - 62 of 102
TheEschaton - 46 of 77
Willington - 70 of 114
WRoss - 75 of 118

The following people have made every pick: Ardwen, Bob, Keller, Kembal, Neimanz, Parkbandit, RSR, Solkern, and WRoss.

[WRoss]

Super supreme god like Ardwen just pointed out that he has 118 picks as well. Forgive me.

[WRoss]

After Week 9:

Adhara - 74 of 131
Alfster - 49 of 88
Anticor - 43 of 76
Archamandis - 10 of 16
Ardwen - 83 of 132
Bobmuhthol - 83 of 132
Bregus - 81 of 132
Chaddy - 33 of 62
DoctorUnne - 94 of 129
Drew - 66 of 111
Drinin - 86 of 128
Elgrim - 8 of 16
g++ - 32 of 62
Gibreficul - 78 of 131
GSGeek - 52 of 91
Keller - 85 of 132
Kembal - 79 of 132
Neimanz1 - 72 of 132
Parkbandit - 83 of 132
Revalos - 53 of 105
RichardCranium - 43 of 77
RSR - 82 of 132
SeanoftheThread - 0 of 1
SGardner - 56 of 104
SHAFT - 82 of 131
Solkern - 79 of 132
Soulpieced - 69 of 130
Stabbyrogue - 72 of 131
Suppressed Poet - 19 of 32
tallkris3 - 62 of 102
TheEschaton - 46 of 77
Willington - 80 of 132
WRoss - 87 of 132

[DoctorUnne]

Can Latrin run some standard deviation shit to show how dominant my performance has been? I feel like I need to talk trash now because this is very unsustainable.

[WRoss]

I'm catching up 1 game at a time!

[Bobmuhthol]

Bregus is listed as x/132 but not bolded, fyi.

Edit: Looks like the 132 is off, not the lack of bolding.

[Latrinsorm]

Can Latrin run some standard deviation shit to show how dominant my performance has been? I feel like I need to talk trash now because this is very unsustainable.I can but it's depressing. You're at 72.9% +/- 7.8%, which means you're statistically indistinguishable from Drinin, WRoss, Keller, Ardwen, Bobmuhthol, Parkbandit, SHAFT, Archamandis RSR, Bregus, tallkris3, Willington, Kembal, Solkern, TheEschaton, Gibreficul, Drew, Suppressed Poet, GSGeek, Anticor, Adhara, RichardCranium, Alfster, Chaddy, g++, and Elgrim.

However, you're probably better than Stabbyrogue, Neimanz1, SGardner, Soulpieced, and Revalos... so you've got that going for you.

[DoctorUnne]

Boo. What confidence level is that?

[Latrinsorm]

Only 95%! At 99.7% (which I rather prefer) you're all fermions.

[SHAFT]

Bregus is listed as x/132 but not bolded, fyi.

Edit: Looks like the 132 is off, not the lack of bolding.


Can Latrin run some standard deviation shit to show how dominant my performance has been? I feel like I need to talk trash now because this is very unsustainable.

I've done that before

[DoctorUnne]

I'm almost 2 standard deviations above the 2nd best.

WRoss, you messed up Drinin in week 8. He went 10/14, not 10/0.

Sorry Drinin, but I needed to audit my closest competitor.

[RSR]

10/14? Might want to check your math there. That's a lot of games played in a single week.

[Bobmuhthol]

There were definitely 14 games in week 8.

As far as being "2 standard deviations above 2nd best," the whole point of statistics is not to be fooled by noise. I'm guessing you calculated the mean and standard deviation of everyone's percentage record and then calculated your z-score. You're free to do that as a mechanical exercise, but it doesn't mean you're statistically better than anyone. Every estimate has a distribution around it, and yours, according to Latrinsorm, intersects with a lot of other people.

[WRoss]

All you guys talking about stats should just take over this thread. Also, I'm leaving town in a few hours. Game time, baby!

[DoctorUnne]

10/14 means 10 out of 14. The confusion is probably from the second part where I meant to say instead of 10/10, not 10/0.

Re: the statistics, I've forgotten most of my statistics math, so I'll defer to the experts. The point I was trying to make is that out of the people who have picked the majority of the games, you have a lot of people who are bunched between 60-65%, and then I am at 73%. WRoss, who is in 2nd, is closer to Drew, who is in 17th, than he is to me. While I don't deny there is a serious amount of luck involved, that seems pretty unlikely to have an outlier like that over a sample size as large as half the season.

[Latrinsorm]

You could make the case that it's actually less suspicious that there's an outlier, because if everyone's true value is about the same we expect noise to generate a normal distribution, and that means a few people (who again, are truly the same) should end up being outside of the main bunch. It's the Wyatt Earp effect.

[Bobmuhthol]

While I don't deny there is a serious amount of luck involved, that seems pretty unlikely to have an outlier like that over a sample size as large as half the season.132 is a very small sample size for trying to pin down a proportion. I think your point was that if half the season is over, everyone should be reasonably close to their season-long percentage. That's not what statistics are used for, though -- we want to estimate "ability to pick a game". Arithmetic can tell you if you have more correct picks than someone else. Statistics can tell you if you're almost certainly better than them all the time.

[DoctorUnne]

From eyeballing it, it doesn't look like a normal distribution. Having everyone between 60-65% and one person at 73% isn't very bell-shaped, but I guess it's well within the realm of statistical possibility. What would the standard deviation be if I kept the 73% for the whole season?

[Latrinsorm]

Although we're slightly past halfway, if we just call it halfway the new 2*SD works out to 5.5%, so it changes a little but not much. It's almost impossible for a person to break from the crowd in a single season.

If you really want to start doubting our system of sports evaluation, do the same metric with batting champions.

[Bobmuhthol]

From eyeballing it, it doesn't look like a normal distribution. Having everyone between 60-65% and one person at 73% isn't very bell-shapedThat's like the definition of a normal distribution. You're trying to fit a distribution to like 30 people. You need thousands.

If you're interested in why Latrinsorm's quoted confidence radius only shrinks from 7.8% to 5.5%, which is the same reason that I claim you need way more of a sample than you have to start making claims about how good you are, the standard error shrinks with the square root of the number of samples. If you want to get twice as precise (bring a 7.8% CI radius to 3.9%), you need 4 times as many samples -- so two seasons. If you want to estimate your ability to pick games within +/- 1%, assuming constant variance, you'd need about 30.25 seasons of data.

[Latrinsorm]

I thought Bob made a good point about how the half game made things uglier so I made it a little tidier:

After week 10

Adhara - 83.500 of 145.000
Alfster - 49.000 of 88.000
Anticor - 43.000 of 76.000
Archamandis - 10.000 of 16.000
Ardwen - 91.500 of 146.000
Bobmuhthol - 92.500 of 146.000
Bregus - 90.500 of 146.000
Chaddy - 33.000 of 62.000
DoctorUnne - 105.500 of 143.000
Drew - 66.000 of 111.000
Drinin - 93.500 of 142.000
Elgrim - 8.000 of 16.000
g++ - 32.000 of 62.000
Gibreficul - 87.500 of 145.000
GSGeek - 60.500 of 105.000
Keller - 95.500 of 146.000
Kembal - 88.500 of 146.000
Neimanz1 - 81.500 of 146.000
Parkbandit - 92.500 of 146.000
Revalos - 60.500 of 119.000
RichardCranium - 43.000 of 77.000
RSR - 92.500 of 146.000
SeanoftheThread - 0.000 of 1.000
SGardner - 56.000 of 104.000
SHAFT - 91.500 of 145.000
Solkern - 86.500 of 146.000
Soulpieced - 79.500 of 143.000
Stabbyrogue - 79.500 of 145.000
SuppressédPoet - 19.000 of 32.000
tallkris3 - 62.000 of 102.000
TheEschaton - 46.000 of 77.000
Willington - 90.500 of 146.000
WRoss - 94.500 of 146.000

Sorted by %

DoctorUnne - 105.500 of 143.000
Drinin - 93.500 of 142.000
Keller - 95.500 of 146.000
WRoss - 94.500 of 146.000
Bobmuhthol - 92.500 of 146.000
Parkbandit - 92.500 of 146.000
RSR - 92.500 of 146.000
SHAFT - 91.500 of 145.000
Ardwen - 91.500 of 146.000
Archamandis - 10.000 of 16.000
Bregus - 90.500 of 146.000
Willington - 90.500 of 146.000
tallkris3 - 62.000 of 102.000
Kembal - 88.500 of 146.000
Gibreficul - 87.500 of 145.000
TheEschaton - 46.000 of 77.000
Drew - 66.000 of 111.000
SuppressédPoet - 19.000 of 32.000
Solkern - 86.500 of 146.000
GSGeek - 60.500 of 105.000
Adhara - 83.500 of 145.000
Anticor - 43.000 of 76.000
RichardCranium - 43.000 of 77.000
Neimanz1 - 81.500 of 146.000
Alfster - 49.000 of 88.000
Soulpieced - 79.500 of 143.000
Stabbyrogue - 79.500 of 145.000
SGardner - 56.000 of 104.000
Chaddy - 33.000 of 62.000
g++ - 32.000 of 62.000
Revalos - 60.500 of 119.000
Elgrim - 8.000 of 16.000
SeanoftheThread - 0.000 of 1.000

[Bobmuhthol]

So any pick in that game counts as 0.5 out of 1?

[Parkbandit]

A tie is generally calculated as both a win and a loss.

[Latrinsorm]

So any pick in that game counts as 0.5 out of 1?That's what I did. Up to WRoss if he wants to go with it or do something else.

[Bobmuhthol]

A tie is generally calculated as both a win and a loss.In what calculation? In standings it's calculated as a tie (obviously), and in point standings it's usually half as many points as a win. A tie doesn't make a 5-8 team suddenly 6-9. You'd be introducing a bias by making one game worth twice as much as every other game (it would count 2 towards the denominator). Unless you were agreeing with me that it should be 0.5 wins out of 1.0 attempts, in which case, keep on keeping on.

[WRoss]

.5 is fine

[DoctorUnne]

Drinin is still wrong. He should be 93.5 out of 146, check week 8. Please fix it, thanks. Sorry Drinin

[Drinin]

Eh, close enough.

[Latrinsorm]

After week 13

Adhara - 116.5 of 190
Alfster - 49 of 88
Anticor - 43 of 76
Archamandis - 10 of 16
Ardwen - 122.5 of 192
Bobmuhthol - 123.5 of 192
Bregus - 121.5 of 192
Chaddy - 33 of 62
DoctorUnne - 136.5 of 189
Drew - 76 of 127
Drinin - 127.5 of 192
Elgrim - 8 of 16
g++ - 32 of 62
Gibreficul - 116.5 of 191
GSGeek - 89.5 of 151
Keller - 123.5 of 192
Kembal - 119.5 of 192
Neimanz1 - 111.5 of 192
Parkbandit - 127.5 of 192
Revalos - 72.5 of 133
RichardCranium - 43 of 77
RSR - 122.5 of 192
SeanoftheThread - 0 of 1
SGardner - 56 of 104
SHAFT - 109.5 of 175
Solkern - 110.5 of 192
Soulpieced - 88.5 of 157
Stabbyrogue - 112.5 of 191
SuppressédPoet - 19 of 32
tallkris3 - 62 of 102
TheEschaton - 46 of 77
Willington - 112.5 of 179
WRoss - 128.5 of 192

by %

DoctorUnne - 136.5 of 189
WRoss - 128.5 of 192
Drinin - 127.5 of 192
Parkbandit - 127.5 of 192
Bobmuhthol - 123.5 of 192
Keller - 123.5 of 192
Ardwen - 122.5 of 192
RSR - 122.5 of 192
Bregus - 121.5 of 192
Willington - 112.5 of 179
SHAFT - 109.5 of 175
Archamandis - 10 of 16
Kembal - 119.5 of 192
Adhara - 116.5 of 190
Gibreficul - 116.5 of 191
tallkris3 - 62 of 102
Drew - 76 of 127
TheEschaton - 46 of 77
SuppressédPoet - 19 of 32
GSGeek - 89.5 of 151
Stabbyrogue - 112.5 of 191
Neimanz1 - 111.5 of 192
Solkern - 110.5 of 192
Anticor - 43 of 76
Soulpieced - 88.5 of 157
RichardCranium - 43 of 77
Alfster - 49 of 88
Revalos - 72.5 of 133
SGardner - 56 of 104
Chaddy - 33 of 62
g++ - 32 of 62
Elgrim - 8 of 16
SeanoftheThread - 0 of 1

[WRoss]

Awww yis, catching up.

[DoctorUnne]

I had a rough week last week. Still should be able to hang on though with only four weeks to play. Once the season is over I'm going to look at how someone would have done hypothetically just by picking Vegas favorites. My hunch is top quartile if not top 3

[WRoss]

I look at the Vegas odds each week and they would typically be top 4 or so people per week.

[WRoss]

After week 14

Adhara - 126.5 of 206
Alfster - 49 of 88
Anticor - 43 of 76
Archamandis - 10 of 16
Ardwen - 130.5 of 208
Bobmuhthol - 133.5 of 208
Bregus - 129.5 of 208
Chaddy - 33 of 62
DoctorUnne - 146.5 of 205
Drew - 77 of 128
Drinin - 136.5 of 208
Elgrim - 8 of 16
g++ - 32 of 62
Gibreficul - 127.5 of 207
GSGeek - 99.5 of 167
Keller - 134.5 of 208
Kembal - 129.5 of 208
Neimanz1 - 111.5 of 192
Parkbandit - 135.5 of 208
Revalos - 82.5 of 149
RichardCranium - 43 of 77
RSR - 131.5 of 208
SeanoftheThread - 0 of 1
SGardner - 56 of 104
SHAFT - 109.5 of 175
Solkern - 110.5 of 192
Soulpieced - 88.5 of 157
Stabbyrogue - 123.5 of 207
SuppressédPoet - 19 of 32
tallkris3 - 62 of 102
TheEschaton - 46 of 77
Willington - 121.5 of 195
WRoss - 139.5 of 208

[WRoss]

After week 15

Adhara - 135.5 of 222
Alfster - 49 of 88
Anticor - 43 of 76
Archamandis - 10 of 16
Ardwen - 142.5 of 224
Bobmuhthol - 141.5 of 224
Bregus - 131.5 of 224
Chaddy - 33 of 62
DoctorUnne - 155.5 of 220
Drew - 77 of 144
Drinin - 145.5 of 224
Elgrim - 8 of 16
g++ - 32 of 62
Gibreficul - 136.5 of 224
GSGeek - 107.5 of 183
Keller - 145.5 of 224
Kembal - 139.5 of 224
Neimanz1 - 122.5 of 208
Parkbandit - 144.5 of 224
Revalos - 82.5 of 149
RichardCranium - 43 of 77
RSR - 142.5 of 224
SeanoftheThread - 0 of 1
SGardner - 56 of 104
SHAFT - 109.5 of 175
Solkern - 110.5 of 192
Soulpieced - 88.5 of 157
Stabbyrogue - 133.5 of 223
SuppressédPoet - 19 of 32
tallkris3 - 62 of 102
TheEschaton - 46 of 77
Willington - 132.5 of 210
WRoss - 151.5 of 224

DoctorUnne, you are going down!

[DoctorUnne]

That's going to be hard since we only have three different picks this week and if I wanted to I could just match your picks next week. You're down by 4, not counting the four fewer games I've picked

[DoctorUnne]

I won't do that to be a dick though so if you want the chance to win you'll probably need to be a bit contrarian next week and hope to get lucky

[WRoss]

there are still the playoffs

[WRoss]

After Week 16:

Adhara - 146.5 of 238
Alfster - 49 of 88
Anticor - 43 of 76
Archamandis - 10 of 16
Ardwen - 153.5 of 240
Bobmuhthol - 151.5 of 240
Bregus - 143.5 of 240
Chaddy - 33 of 62
DoctorUnne - 166.5 of 236
Drew - 95 of 160
Drinin - 160.5 of 240
Elgrim - 8 of 16
g++ - 32 of 62
Gibreficul - 145.5 of 240
GSGeek - 118.5 of 199
Keller - 157.5 of 240
Kembal - 151.5 of 240
Neimanz1 - 133.5 of 224
Parkbandit - 133.5 of 240
Revalos - 95.5 of 165
RichardCranium - 43 of 77
RSR - 153.5 of 240
SeanoftheThread - 0 of 1
SGardner - 56 of 104
SHAFT - 109.5 of 175
Solkern - 110.5 of 192
Soulpieced - 88.5 of 157
Stabbyrogue - 143.5 of 239
SuppressédPoet - 19 of 32
tallkris3 - 62 of 102
TheEschaton - 46 of 77
Willington - 142.5 of 226
WRoss - 162.5 of 240

[WRoss]

After Week 17:

Adhara - 146.5 of 238
Alfster - 49 of 88
Anticor - 43 of 76
Archamandis - 10 of 16
Ardwen - 161.5 of 256
Bobmuhthol - 163.5 of 256
Bregus - 156.5 of 256
Chaddy - 33 of 62
DoctorUnne - 178.5 of 252
Drew - 95 of 160
Drinin - 172.5 of 256
Elgrim - 8 of 16
g++ - 32 of 62
Gibreficul - 156.5 of 256
GSGeek - 132.5 of 115
Keller - 170.5 of 256
Kembal - 151.5 of 240
Neimanz1 - 143.5 of 256
Parkbandit - 144.5 of 256
Revalos - 95.5 of 165
RichardCranium - 43 of 77
RSR - 165.5 of 256
SeanoftheThread - 0 of 1
SGardner - 56 of 104
SHAFT - 109.5 of 175
Solkern - 110.5 of 192
Soulpieced - 88.5 of 157
Stabbyrogue - 156.5 of 255
SuppressédPoet - 19 of 32
tallkris3 - 62 of 102
TheEschaton - 46 of 77
Willington - 153.5 of 242
WRoss - 172.5 of 256

Stand by for a season finale

[Whirlin]

didn't carry the 1 for GSgeek? I assumed it's of 215?

Ordered by %s, and %s truncated below... because I'm bored, and have an excessive Excel addiction

DoctorUnne - 70%
Drinin - 67%
WRoss - 67%
Keller - 66%
RSR - 64%
Bobmuhthol - 63%
Willington - 63%
Kembal - 63%
Ardwen - 63%
SHAFT - 62%
Archamandis - 62%
GSGeek - 61%
Adhara - 61%
Stabbyrogue - 61%
Bregus - 61%
Gibreficul - 61%
tallkris3 - 60%
TheEschaton - 59%
Drew - 59%
SuppressédPoet - 59%
Revalos - 57%
Solkern - 57%
Anticor - 56%
Parkbandit - 56%
Soulpieced - 56%
Neimanz1 - 56%
RichardCranium - 55%
Alfster - 55%
SGardner - 53%
Chaddy - 53%
g++ - 51%
Elgrim - 5%
SeanoftheThread - 0%

[WRoss]

Can you care it out to hundreths place?

[Whirlin]

DoctorUnne - 70.83%
Drinin - 67.38%
WRoss - 67.38%
Keller - 66.60%
RSR - 64.64%
Bobmuhthol - 63.86%
Willington - 63.42%
Kembal - 63.12%
Ardwen - 63.08%
SHAFT - 62.57%
Archamandis - 62.5%
GSGeek - 61.62%
Adhara - 61.55%
Stabbyrogue - 61.37%
Bregus - 61.13%
Gibreficul - 61.13%
tallkris3 - 60.78%
TheEschaton - 59.74%
Drew - 59.37%
SuppressédPoet - 59.37%
Revalos - 57.87%
Solkern - 57.55%
Anticor - 56.57%
Parkbandit - 56.44%
Soulpieced - 56.36%
Neimanz1 - 56.05%
RichardCranium - 55.84%
Alfster - 55.68%
SGardner - 53.84%
Chaddy - 53.22%
g++ - 51.61%
Elgrim - 5.%
SeanoftheThread - 0.%

Text to columns on spaces
F1 = =C1/E1
=A1&" "&B1&" "&MID(F1,3,2)&"."&MID(F1,5,2)&"%"

[DoctorUnne]

That looks much better

[Bobmuhthol]

I missed two Thursday picks so I should be out of 254. I guess it doesn't change my rank though.

[Willington]

Its that time of year again..Anyone doing this again?