NBA Playoffs!!!

[Androidpk]

Victorus aut mortis!

[DoctorUnne]

Seriously though, how are the Celtics going to win a single game?

No idea. Inconceivable.

[Drew]

No idea. Inconceivable.

Can you feel good about that win with the way it was reffed?

[Androidpk]

Can you feel good about that win with the way it was reffed?

Fuck yeah.

[Latrinsorm]

That's the first game I can remember that was both closer and not as close as the final score indicated. Very exciting, just surreal. I don't think I've ever seen a team and crowd so nervous with a 10 point lead and 2 minutes left. I also really loved Miami's first quarter "fast break off of Celtics' made baskets" strategy. I don't know if it helped or hurt, but it was incredible to watch.
No idea. Inconceivable.It wasn't a rhetorical question, I was actually asking someone to predict how the Celtics would win. Waiting until after they do so and then saying "I knew they would win all along!" is a little slippery.

For instance, you could have said...
-KG unstoppable, prompting Spo to deploy what Windhorst aptly described as the "tiny ball" lineup
-Ray Allen comes back to life
-The triumphant return of Marquis Daniels
-Miami goes ice cold at the line
-Wade has a poor game (see points 2 and 3)
-Boston abandons its jump shot offense (see points 1 and 3)

Let's look at paint attempts again...
Heat: 6+2+1+7+9+1+1 = 27, 20 FTA. Outlier: Wade with 9 and 0.
Celtics: 7+3+3+10+10+2+5 = 40, 26 FTA. No major individual outliers.
Again, it's such a simple game. Knock it off with the inefficient jump shots, and you do better. 75% of Boston's attempts were in the paint or from 3 in game 3, in game 2 it was only 63%. Miami came down to 57% from 76%.

I mean, look at the final team stats: Miami 38 of 77, 5 of 17 from three. Boston 38 of 76, 5 of 17 from three. 24 PFs each. Miami 20 assists, 5 steals, 5 blocks, 10 turnovers. Boston 16 assists, 4 steals, 4 blocks, 12 turnovers. Eerily similar, no?

[DoctorUnne]

Can you feel good about that win with the way it was reffed?

Really? You're saying that after game 2?

Don't go there. I didn't.

[DoctorUnne]

Predicting a sweep is one thing. Believing that it's impossible a team that is almost as good can win a game just hurts your credibility, especially now that you admit it was a serious statement and not just trash talking.

I don't disagree Miami's a better team than Boston, but you've had three games in which one was won convincingly by either team and one was basically a toss-up in Miami's building.

[Latrinsorm]

I didn't say it was impossible. I asked a question.

I also like how you couched it as "now that you admit", when I prefaced the question with "Seriously" (this denotes that I meant the question seriously). I haven't changed anything. The only thing that's changed is your willingness to talk up the Celtics, perhaps coincidentally coming after they won a game.

Boston if healthy is almost as good as Miami. Review their injury status coming into this series:
-Bradley out
-Pierce sprained MCL
-Allen hobbled by ankles so severely that he couldn't even make free throws anymore
And going against two of the most offensively dynamic wings in the league, who were piquing (thanks Androidpk) at the time!

[Androidpk]

As I told you before stats alone do not win you championships.

[Latrinsorm]

Going back to a previous point, a great stat from John Schuhmann c/o Hollinger: Celtics' 15 mid-range shots in Game 3 were the fewest they've attempted all season.

That's how much of an outlier last game was regarding their offense. It makes you wonder if they're better off against Miami just taking Bass out altogether and going small with Pierce and Pietrus at forward. Plus it's just embarrassing to see Battier's shake and bake work on a professional basketball player.

[Latrinsorm]

As I told you before stats alone do not win you championships."Sprained MCL" isn't a stat. Droid please.

[Androidpk]

I'm not talking about that and you know it. You do nothing but throw out numbers yet what you fail to account for are the things that you cannot assign numbers to. Which is exactly why Lebron will never replace Jordan as the greatest basketball player of all time.

[RichardCranium]

Can you feel good about that win with the way it was reffed?

Not sure if serious.

[Latrinsorm]

I'm not talking about that and you know it. You do nothing but throw out numbers yet what you fail to account for are the things that you cannot assign numbers to. Which is exactly why Lebron will never replace Jordan as the greatest basketball player of all time.I object to... pretty much all of that characterization.

I am always interested in discussing those parts of the game that may not be susceptible to statistical analysis, traditional stats or otherwise. The key word there is discussing. If you flatly declare that X can't be analyzed statistically and dismiss counter arguments out of hand, what should I do? Should I sell shoes? Wanna see my shiny new shoes? Seriously, what should I do? Take the referee bias "discussion". All I did was suggest an alternative explanation, that the team that has more paint FGAs is more likely to have more FTAs. I didn't suggest that there was a strict numerical correlation, obviously there are factors missing: fouls on missed FGAs are invisible to one side, technical fouls, the bonus (although that could in turn be linked to paint FGAs), and the particular skills of the players involved, to name a few. I specifically mentioned Pierce, and I'm sure I've talked up Harden's ability to generate FTs in the past.

And all I got back from you was stats are stupid. Cool talk bro?

I strenuously object to the claim that 1) I have ever tried to make the case that LeBron is superior to Jordan and 2) the stats even back that up. Frankly this is the kind of lazy criticism that makes you look worse for even saying it.

love,
me

[Constal]

There's still 1:38 left in OT as I'm posting this... Did Lebron get shafted or what? His last 3 fouls weren't even fouls.. starting from his charge on Pierce's block! Then the double foul with Garnett.. and then the tie up down in the paint again with Pietrus.. and he fouls out for the first time as a MIami heat.. probably only 2nd or 3rd time in his NBA career.. CRAZY

[DoctorUnne]

The only thing that's changed is your willingness to talk up the Celtics, perhaps coincidentally coming after they won a game.

I would have commented on it earlier had I seen it before we were already down 2-0. Commenting at that point would have sounded pretty stupid.

You see that's the great thing about sports. You get to talk trash when your team wins. When they don't, you take it like a man and move on.

Speaking of... great job by Miami tonight again in the clutch. Can't wait to see them update those clutch stats where Wade and LeBron are like 4 for 50 combined at the end of games.

[Androidpk]

Celtics, how do they work?

[Latrinsorm]

I would have commented on it earlier had I seen it before we were already down 2-0. Commenting at that point would have sounded pretty stupid.

You see that's the great thing about sports. You get to talk trash when your team wins. When they don't, you take it like a man and move on.This is one of the many problems with results-oriented analysis vs. process-oriented. You're a smart guy, you should go with the latter. Sometimes good plays don't work (LeBron getting deep post position, getting hooked, and inexplicably getting called for the foul), sometimes bad plays work (Garnett pass ricocheting off Bass' hands to Allen for 3).

For instance, I can point out how the Celtics have been on fire in the first half and fallen apart in the second half in the last two games (+15 to -3 first game, +14 to -14 to +2 last night.), no doubt buoyed by energetic home crowds and no small measure of desperation. Go down 3-0 or 3-1 and the series is essentially over. Are they going to be able to get out to the enormous early lead that it's turned out they've needed in game 5? KG started repeatedly coming up short on jump shots in the second half, does he have enough gas left for 2 more wins?
Speaking of... great job by Miami tonight again in the clutch. Can't wait to see them update those clutch stats where Wade and LeBron are like 4 for 50 combined at the end of games.Speaking of being a smart guy, you should look at the year to year values for these. Take Melo: Melo shot 35% in the clutch this year, 46%, 43%, 57% the previous three years. The first thing to know about stats is statistical noise. This year, he took 65 FGAs that qualified as clutch shots (http://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT11.HTM). If his true talent level is 45%, for instance, then we could reasonably expect values to fall within...

2 * sqrt(65 * .45 * (1 - .45)) = 8 makes, or 8/65 = 12.3%.

There's no reason to believe Melo suddenly became a choker this year because his result is within 2 standard deviations of the predicted mean. Similarly, there's no reason to believe Melo was a clutch closer omigod in 2009.

I don't know what specific version of clutch shots you're referring to, but the beauty of the above equation is it applies everywhere in the universe. 2 standard deviations for 95% confidence interval, square root to convert variance, measurements, rate of occurrence, rate of non-occurrence, done. The next time you see the actual values for whatever stat you're talking about, try it and see! :)

[DoctorUnne]

You're a smart guy

Thank you.

[DoctorUnne]

And by the way, the specific version of the clutch shots I was referring to was the graphic they showed at some point near the end of I think game 2 where they listed Miami's main players and their FGM/FGA in situations where the Heat were down 1-3 and 30 seconds or fewer were left for the 2011 and 2012 seasons. I forget the exact numbers and can't find them now, but the entire team was a total of something like 5 for 40 or 6 for 50, most of which was James and Wade. It was basically an updated version of the stats found here, and they hadn't improved.

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2011/03/04/statscube-heat-go-cold-in-the-clutch/?ls=iref:nbahpt1

Would be interested to see how many standard deviations away that is if you assume their true averages are their career averages. Obviously with only 23 FGA it's not a very large sample size but the data they showed on the graphic included both seasons and had a larger sample size. A sample size that just increased by one with last night's game.

[Drew]

And by the way, the specific version of the clutch shots I was referring to was the graphic they showed at some point near the end of I think game 2 where they listed Miami's main players and their FGM/FGA in situations where the Heat were down 1-3 and 30 seconds or fewer were left for the 2011 and 2012 seasons. I forget the exact numbers and can't find them now, but the entire team was a total of something like 5 for 40 or 6 for 50, most of which was James and Wade. It was basically an updated version of the stats found here, and they hadn't improved.

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2011/03/04/statscube-heat-go-cold-in-the-clutch/?ls=iref:nbahpt1

Would be interested to see how many standard deviations away that is if you assume their true averages are their career averages. Obviously with only 23 FGA it's not a very large sample size but the data they showed on the graphic included both seasons and had a larger sample size. A sample size that just increased by one with last night's game.


I remember this season Durant was 1/11 with the same shots. No one in the league has a high percentage on game winners other than Kobe (which I hate to say) but this year he was the only one to statistically do well on last second shots.

[Latrinsorm]

Wrong thread lol.

Regarding DoctorUnne's question, we can use basketball-reference.com's excellent play finder + to get the most updated values. 30 seconds seems like kind of a weird choice of number to me (why not 24?), but I can look them up anyway.

Chris Bosh - 1 for 3 (all from 3), 1 for 1 FT
LeBron James - 3 for 11, 1 for 6 from 3, 6 for 9 FT
Dwyane Wade - 3 for 12, 1 for 4 from 3, 3 for 3 FT
(note, your link says 4 for 4 because he includes tied as well as down 1-3)

Now we go through the math:
Chris Bosh overall .492 over those two years, standard deviation of 0.866, observed value is within 1 standard deviation of expected
LeBron James .520, sd 1.657, observed value is within 2 standard deviations of expected
Dwyane Wade .499, sd 1.732, observed value is within 2 standard deviations of expected

I decided to look up the FTs too so we could get a bead on points generated per attempt, which I think is a useful stat.
Bosh - 4 for 3 (1.32 average)
James - 13 for 11 (1.43 average)
Wade - 10 for 12 (1.36 average)

Since Kobe was mentioned, let's look at his FGAs in the same scenario over the years:
3 of 13 - .231
4 of 8 - .500
7 of 15 - .467
3 of 9 - .333
0 of 5 - .000 (Pau year 1)
6 of 13 - .462
5 of 16 - .313
2 of 9 - .222
6 of 10 - .600 (Shaq's last year)
4 of 13 - .308
0 of 6 - .000
2 of 7 - .286
no attempts in first four years
total
42 of 124 - .339
overall pct. - .453
sd - 5.54
expected value - 56.17
Between 2 and 3 standard deviations below what we'd expect, which isn't a slam dunk, but it's unequivocally more demonstrative than the evidence used to impugn the Heat stars' abilities.

(In case you were wondering, the values for LeBron over his career are 33 for 73, .452, .483, 4.27, 35.25, less than 1 standard deviation, respectively.)

[Atlanteax]

I'm both surprised and not-so-surprised, that the Spurs are down to the Thunder 2-3, after clearly dominating the first two games.

Guess Spurs are entirely too dependent on Parker to play well (where for the Lakers, they can still win if Kobe does not play well, but are almost certain to if he does).

[Valthissa]

Wrong thread lol.

Regarding DoctorUnne's question, we can use basketball-reference.com's excellent play finder + to get the most updated values. 30 seconds seems like kind of a weird choice of number to me (why not 24?), but I can look them up anyway.

Chris Bosh - 1 for 3 (all from 3), 1 for 1 FT
LeBron James - 3 for 11, 1 for 6 from 3, 6 for 9 FT
Dwyane Wade - 3 for 12, 1 for 4 from 3, 3 for 3 FT
(note, your link says 4 for 4 because he includes tied as well as down 1-3)


So they lost 20 games this year and they had a shot to win or tie in the last 30 seconds in 18 of them? That's impressive.

C

[Androidpk]

Hell to the yes, time to close this series out back in Boston and send the heat packing.

[SHAFT]

Fucking hell. I kinda want Boston to make it to the finals so I have a team to root against.

[DoctorUnne]

I love how LeBron gave Pierce a high five on the follow through after hitting that dagger three. What a guy. I thought the kid above the tunnel said it well. "Good effort!"

[Ardwen]

what are the stat break downs on this one Latrin? Because man they are gonna be awful all around

[Parkbandit]

So they lost 20 games this year and they had a shot to win or tie in the last 30 seconds in 18 of them? That's impressive.

C

:rofl:

[Androidpk]

I don't always make fun of sports teams. But when I do, it's to laugh after the Heat choke in a big situation.Stay ringless, my friends.

[Latrinsorm]

So they lost 20 games this year and they had a shot to win or tie in the last 30 seconds in 18 of them? That's impressive.

CThose are for the last two years, as DoctorUnne asked "for the 2011 and 2012 seasons". This was also mentioned in Chris Bosh's shooting percentage: "over those two years".
what are the stat break downs on this one Latrin? Because man they are gonna be awful all aroundI'm glad you asked! Because it struck me last night that the weirdest thing about the officiating in this series is how it has seemed to respond immediately to public pressure. LeBron took a ton of free throws in game 2, outrage outrage, LeBron doesn't take so many anymore. A ton of fouls were called through the first four games, outrage outrage, the referees made a clear and concerted effort to reduce foul calls (especially off the ball), leading to such ridiculous plays as Dooling's "box-out" where he turned all the way around, put both hands on a Heat player's chest, and pushed him off the block. Keeping in mind that Paul Pierce still finished with 5 PFs, it's interesting to wonder. As a relatively smug, self-assured guy, it's really surprising to me that a kindred spirit in David Stern is tolerating/ordering this. His usual response to public pressure is to implicitly suggest anatomical impossibilities.

What's also been really impressive is KG's performance. His last two playoffs in pts/reb/blks per game were 15.0/7.4/0.9 and 14.9/10.9/1.0, this year he's up to 19.9/10.8/1.4. His sudden resurgence is also reflected in composite stats like PER: 17.6, 17.3, 21.5. What makes it even more remarkable is his regular season was indistinguishable from the previous two. Especially with Allen playing so poorly, it's been crucial for someone to step up on Boston, and it's a testament to Garnett's supernatural ability that he's able to do so at his age.

For the series as a whole, I'm not worried. The last offensive play Boston ran was everyone standing around while Pierce took a contested three. They just don't run good offense in the clutch, and I'm confident that will play into the Heat's hands. The rest of the post is stats to back up the previous claims. Anybody who knows stats are automatically wrong if they disagree with what you already know is excused.

LeBron FTs:
Paint attempts in the first two games... 9 + 10, 1.74 FTA per.
Paint attempts in the next three games... 7 + 16 + 13, 0.58 FTA per.
If anything he got more aggressive in games 4 and 5, yet he wasn't getting as many FTs. (His value during the regular season was 0.87.)

Fouls: we take pace (possessions per 48 minutes), multiply by actual minutes played to account for the overtimes, and divide into total fouls called. We get values of...
.485
.545
.552
.606(!)
.453(!!!)

[DoctorUnne]

Bosh being out has helped the Celtics more than anyone appreciates I think and KG's resurgence can probably be directly attributed to this. Having said that, Bradley was clearly our fifth-best player and would have been the primary defender on Wade, so his absence has been important. And Allen has been a shell of himself because of the injury. So honestly I think it's kind of a wash. Miami is more talented but Boston has more poise and plays better as a team. I am impressed that you're not worried at all though being down 3-2 and heading to LeBron's house of horrors.

Every time LeBron or Wade drives to the hoop I pretty much write it off as two points. They're that amazing. Not sure why they would ever take any jumpers. Miami should be getting a lot more foul calls and taking a lot more free throws than Boston. So Latrin I guess if your officiating trend holds up there should be more public pressure for the Heat to get calls and they should get a lot more calls in game 6? Or were you really just trying to say the refs have been unfair to Miami in every game except for the two that they won?

[Androidpk]

Can someone explain to me how some fouls are called. In particular the last one that was called on Pierce when Wade drove to the hoop. He dropped his shoulder and charged into Pierce, knocking them both over, yet the foul was called on Pierce?

[Wrathbringer]

Can someone explain to me how some fouls are called. In particular the last one that was called on Pierce when Wade drove to the hoop. He dropped his shoulder and charged into Pierce, knocking them both over, yet the foul was called on Pierce?

NBA Refs are bought and paid for.

[Drew]

Can someone explain to me how some fouls are called. In particular the last one that was called on Pierce when Wade drove to the hoop. He dropped his shoulder and charged into Pierce, knocking them both over, yet the foul was called on Pierce?

Pierce was moving his feet and hadn't taken the position when Wade got there. Some charges are really tough to call, that one was pretty simple. They've been giving Pierce charges the whole series where he was clearly inside the restricted zone so that could have been a karma call if it was a bad one, but it was the right call anyway.

[Androidpk]

What does his feet have to do with it? He was moving backwards and Wade purposely charged into him.

[Drew]

As a defender you have to give way to an offensive player unless your feet are set and you've already taken up a position.

[Latrinsorm]

Bosh being out has helped the Celtics more than anyone appreciates I think and KG's resurgence can probably be directly attributed to this. Having said that, Bradley was clearly our fifth-best player and would have been the primary defender on Wade, so his absence has been important. And Allen has been a shell of himself because of the injury. So honestly I think it's kind of a wash. Miami is more talented but Boston has more poise and plays better as a team. I am impressed that you're not worried at all though being down 3-2 and heading to LeBron's house of horrors.Two other things I didn't mention factor in: Boston is allergic to close-out games, and they've won 3 in a row. No matter what you think of the Heat, rationally speaking it's really unlikely for any team to beat them 4 times in a row.
Every time LeBron or Wade drives to the hoop I pretty much write it off as two points. They're that amazing. Not sure why they would ever take any jumpers.Because they get le tired, and no opportunity to have a nap.
Miami should be getting a lot more foul calls and taking a lot more free throws than Boston. So Latrin I guess if your officiating trend holds up there should be more public pressure for the Heat to get calls and they should get a lot more calls in game 6? Or were you really just trying to say the refs have been unfair to Miami in every game except for the two that they won?I think whichever team loses the series is going to have a quasi-legitimate belief that they were screwed. I mean, looking at LeBron alone: 24 is a lot of freaking free throws (Boston was screwed!!), shooting in the paint 16 times and getting 8 crummy free throws out of it (Miami was screwed!!). I don't think either team has really been screwed, the FTA/ptFGA and PF values have been pretty similar team to team in any given game, it's game to game that they've varied to an astonishing degree.

I haven't seen anything major written on the officiating after game 5, which just goes to show you that the MSM still doesn't really buy into pace. They've been all over the map this series, it's anybody's guess how game 6 is called. I wouldn't be surprised if Pierce finishes with 0 fouls, I wouldn't be surprised if he fouls out in the third quarter, which brings me to my next point:

Inexplicable coaching decisions! Marquis Daniels is pretty much the last guy on Boston who can (sort of) single cover Wade, Joel Anthony is the only big on Miami who can (sort of) defend the lethal Rondo-Garnett pick and roll... they played 3 and 0 minutes in game 5 respectively. Wat??? I get wanting to work Bosh back in, but if you're only going to play him 14 minutes anyway why not let him wear out the Stiemer? Give Pierce more of a breather and maybe he can get more than 3 crappy rebounds a game, right? I don't know, it struck me as really weird.
What does his feet have to do with it? He was moving backwards and Wade purposely charged into him.If you really want to draw a charge, your feet have to be still. You can still get a charge called if your feet are moving, but you're making it tough on yourself. The NBA has gone a little away from the dark ages of Chauncey Billups style initiated contact being rewarded, but the burden of proof (so to speak) is still on the defensive player.

[Androidpk]

Because they get le tired, and no opportunity to have a nap.

Lebron periodically has scheduled nap time, it's called the 4th quarter ;)

[Ardwen]

It comes down to winning instincts not stats, and the Heat as currently built just dont seem to have them, Lebron's comments after the came about having done enough to win more then show that

[Androidpk]

It comes down to winning instincts not stats, and the Heat as currently built just dont seem to have them, Lebron's comments after the came about having done enough to win more then show that

Must have missed that, got a link?

[Latrinsorm]

I thought Bill Simmons made a great comment in today's (yesterday's?) podcast. Well, a few. One about how he loses his f-in mind on Twitter and banned himself from using it during games, which makes it pretty easy to excuse his game 2 comments. The second about how LeBron's 2007 game 5 against the Pistons was one of the great clutch postseason performances of all time, which is an unassailable fact. This is one of the things that makes things like "winning instincts" so annoying to talk about. Did LeBron just get lucky in that game? Was he a winner then and forgot how to be a winner in last year's Finals? Is hyper-analyzing his (or anyone else's) body language and postgame comments helpful, in any way, ever? Being in the much greater New York metropolitan area, all I heard for years was how Eli Manning had terrible body language and could never be a winner/leader/clutch/hero/star, now he has two Super Bowl MVPs and still slumps his shoulders from time to time, so... diatribe diatribe.

And not to rehash it, but look at last night. If Paul Pierce's instincts told him to take that terrible 3, his instincts were just wrong. What does "wrong" mean? Not borne out by objective analysis. He's shooting .333 these playoffs, it's (at least!) twice as likely that shot misses, and with the way the Heat were dominating the boards about that much that they get the ball with the chance to take the lead. It was a bad play and a bad shot. The idea that his lucking out (in addition to his incredible skill, of course) and it going in makes him a winner is just crazy. (Not that you said that, but I'm expounding here, where's the fire.)

[RichardCranium]

Thunder.

^

[DoctorUnne]

Two other things I didn't mention factor in: Boston is allergic to close-out games

This is quite true. I actually think Boston has a better chance of winning game 7 than game 6

[Atlanteax]

Well, that's it for the aging Spurs.

[Latrinsorm]

A conspiracy thought bouncing around in my head after the many comparisons to the 1991 Bulls:

3-0 over Ewing's Knicks (a clean sweep of a possibly overrated big man)
4-1 over Barkley's 76ers (an easy victory over a team with a talented but at times selfish scorer)
4-0 over the last gasp of the Bad Boy Pistons
4-1 over the last gasp of the last gasp of the Showtime Lakers (Kareem already retired in 1989, Magic out for the next four years with an HIV)

If you were David Stern and wanted to sell Kevin Durant as the next face of the NBA, why not have his first title parallel that of the greatest player of all time, and cap it by putting him against a marquee Finals opponent on its very last legs? Why not also sabotage a trade that would have given the Lakers a dramatically better shot at remaining contenders as opposed to 2nd round and go homers? Is it a coincidence that Boston was +17 in FTAs in game 5 against Philly, or +33 for the series against the Hawks? (No, the Hawks suck and the 76ers are terrible at drawing contact.)

Also, side note, the 1991 Bulls lost 2 friggin' games in the entire playoffs!!! I didn't know that.

[RichardCranium]

A conspiracy thought bouncing around in my head after the many comparisons to the 1991 Bulls:3-0 over Ewing's Knicks (a clean sweep of a possibly overrated big man)4-1 over Barkley's 76ers (an easy victory over a team with a talented but at times selfish scorer)4-0 over the last gasp of the Bad Boy Pistons4-1 over the last gasp of the last gasp of the Showtime Lakers (Kareem already retired in 1989, Magic out for the next four years with an HIV)If you were David Stern and wanted to sell Kevin Durant as the next face of the NBA, why not have his first title parallel that of the greatest player of all time, and cap it by putting him against a marquee Finals opponent on its very last legs? Why not also sabotage a trade that would have given the Lakers a dramatically better shot at remaining contenders as opposed to 2nd round and go homers? Is it a coincidence that Boston was +17 in FTAs in game 5 against Philly, or +33 for the series against the Hawks? (No, the Hawks suck and the 76ers are terrible at drawing contact.)Also, side note, the 1991 Bulls lost 2 friggin' games in the entire playoffs!!! I didn't know that.

Jordan retired a long time ago; he won't be facing Durant any time soon. You'll have to settle for watching the Thunder paste the Celtics this year.

[Latrinsorm]

Obviously LeBron James turning on God mode. Ok. Yes. (He pulled off the wrong footed fadeaway bank shot earlier this playoffs, and it's just as obviously impossible tonight as it was then. It clearly should not ever work.)

Chris Palmer: LeBron James is the 1st player with 45 pts, 15 rebs, 5 asts in the playoffs in 48 years. (Wilt 50-15-6)
Jalen Rose: Lots of people trashing the Heat & Lebron since the end of Game 5. It's ok to back-peddle now. Great series filled w/HOF'ers. Shhh. Enjoy!
Zach Lowe: Reader asks via Twitter: "OK, so why can't he do this every game?" He has 45 points on 19-of-26 shooting. I give up.
John Hollinger: But he only has four points in the fourth quarter.
.

But what's overshadowed is the impact of Bosh. Not only did Garnett finally have a pedestrian game, but I thought Wade looked dramatically fresher throughout the game. Bosh didn't score a lot, but it seemed like just the threat of him was enough to dramatically improve the ball movement and decrease the effort load on James and Wade. Wade's stats don't look that much difference on casual inspection, but let's go deeper:

3 long (16+ feet) jumpers tonight out of 17, one coming after the game was clearly decided.
8 in game 5, 11(!) in game 4, 6 in game 3, 6 in game 2, 5 in game 1. Before tonight, using the long jumper on almost 40% of his shots and making 25%.

Game 7 will be fascinating.

[Atlanteax]

Obviously LeBron James turning on God mode. Ok. Yes. (He pulled off the wrong footed fadeaway bank shot earlier this playoffs, and it's just as obviously impossible tonight as it was then. It clearly should not ever work.)

But what's overshadowed is the impact of Bosh. Not only did Garnett finally have a pedestrian game, but I thought Wade looked dramatically fresher throughout the game. Bosh didn't score a lot, but it seemed like just the threat of him was enough to dramatically improve the ball movement and decrease the effort load on James and Wade. Wade's stats don't look that much difference on casual inspection, but let's go deeper:

I think both Wade and LeBron stress that Bosh is a very valuable part of the time just for that reason.

Wade and Lebron have some space playing off each other ... resulting in splitting the load (vs Lebron carrying it all in Cleveland, and ditto for Wade post-Shaq).
But when both of them are able to play off Bosh ... that means *both* guards get on-floor rest. Hence your comment about Wade appearing more fresh.

Game 7 is going to be great to watch, indeed.

[Drew]

Bosh opened up the baseline drives a lot. They were still high degree of difficulty shots but not jumping through 3 people trying to get a miracle shot or foul.

[SHAFT]

If aliens were invading Earth and they told us humans to choose one of our own for a random sporting event, and if we won they would leave and if we lost they would enslave us, I'd choose Lebron James

[Latrinsorm]

Interesting article (http://www.nba.com/lakers/120608trainerstake_parttwo) today via Henry Abbott. The Lakers head trainer goes into some more detail on Kobe's mysterious German procedure, which he and Bynum are both getting this summer. I would be interested if any biological people could weigh in on it, but biology isn't even a real science so I'm not really. The short version is it seems a lot more intricate than the PRP people were talking about before.

[Latrinsorm]

Well that was fun. Before we get to the Finals, I'd like to give a big hand to (most) of the fans. Between the continuous "let's go Celtics" for the last 4 minutes last game and the big ovation for the Celtics 4 tonight, a really good job, good effort, class act. Also the Miami fans actually showed up on time, for quite possibly the first time ever, and only tightened up for a few minutes in the first half. Nothing like a series coming down to the very last quarter of the very last game.

I also am 99% sure that the only reason Garnett left early was so Rondo wouldn't be the only guy who left early, and that he will never admit that.

FINALS MATCHUPS WEE!

I don't think the Thunder match up well against the Heat at all.
-They have no real post presence to exploit Miami's lack of size.
-They rely very heavily on isos, which Miami as a good defensive team tends to do well against (although against Westbrook, Durant, and Harden "well" is a relative term).
-They're a little above average in 3P% and 3PA, but if they start forcing they'll really play into Miami's hands. They're only an average rebounding team.
-They led the league in turnover rate, and Miami was 3rd in the league in forced turnover rate.
-Bosh presents a very different challenge than the San Antonio bigs. Perkins can't stay with him to affect his jump shots, and bringing Ibaka away from the rim is suicide.
-If they go small with Ibaka/Durant and Harden/Sefolosha/Westbrook, won't they get murdered on the boards? C and SG neutralize, LeBron weighs about 50 pounds more than Durant, Harden gets crushed by whoever is at the other wing, Westbrook probably edges Chalmers but what if the Heat go no-PG?

Heat in 5! :)

[SHAFT]

Heat in 7

[Ardwen]

OKC in 5, Hell of a game tonight all in all, Celts just looked tired in the 4th, Lebron closed a series and Bosh draining threes

[Valthissa]

Westbrook probably edges Chalmers...

if they have a swim meet but since they are playing basketball Westbrook is significanly better than Chalmers at everything, well Mario does have more entertaining bricks and turnovers.

Heat in 7

[Latrinsorm]

Chalmers is an underrated rebounder. He's also definitely better at 3pt and arguably better at pure point play.

Overall and in a vacuum Westbrook is clearly better, but he's not literally better at every particular thing. Rebounding is important, you know?

[Valthissa]

I'll play

2012 playoffs

Westbrook RPG 5.1
Chalmers RPG 3.9

career

Westbrook RPG 4.7
Chalmers RPG 2.4

Rebounding is important, Westbrook is better (by a lot).

3 pt %, you got me - but I'm not trading one Westbrook for two Chalmers.

OKC > Heat but the the Heat will win in 7. I'll be sorry if LeBron gets a ring this year. It would be a better story to watch him fall short year after year.

[Whyspe]

Thunder in 6

[Latrinsorm]

I'll play

2012 playoffs

Westbrook RPG 5.1
Chalmers RPG 3.9

career

Westbrook RPG 4.7
Chalmers RPG 2.4

Rebounding is important, Westbrook is better (by a lot).

3 pt %, you got me - but I'm not trading one Westbrook for two Chalmers.

OKC > Heat but the the Heat will win in 7. I'll be sorry if LeBron gets a ring this year. It would be a better story to watch him fall short year after year.When you adjust for pace and rebound opportunities, Westbrook only has a slight edge on Chalmers... which is what I said in the beginning.

[Latrinsorm]

Great comment by Rick Reilly after a really good article on Durant and James...

"And to think they almost canceled this season."

The product has been so compelling that it's easy to forget how unbelievably stupid and nearsighted the lockout was.

[Atlanteax]

Heat in 5, closing out at home ... sometimes it seems that the NBA finals schedule plays more to the schedule of the 'visiting' team (lower-seeded), since they get to 'host' 3 whole games in a row.

[Latrinsorm]

Here's something a little weird. I've been keeping an eye on the espn.com expert picks. 14 of 14 had the Heat beating the Celtics, 8 of 12 had the Thunder losing to the Spurs. Now 12 of 20 have the Thunder winning in an average of 6.5, 8 of 20 with the Heat in 6.5. Fully 11 of 20 think the series will go 7, everyone else sees 6.

The only 7 game Finals in the era of 16 team playoffs:
2010 (Lakers over Celtics)
2005 (Spurs over Pistons)
1994 (Rockets over Knicks)
1988 (Lakers over Pistons)
1984 (Celtics over Lakers)

5 in 29 years! I wouldn't bet on it. Perhaps tellingly, the home team has won 100% of those 5 game 7s. The only Finals I can find where the road team won the game 7 are...

1978 Bullets over Sonics (in a game Elvin Hayes fouled out of, no less)
1974 Celtics over Bucks (in a game that took place on May 12th, lol)
1969 Celtics over Lakers (Bill Russell scored 6 points)

And 9 others where the home team held serve.

BASKETBALL! BASKETBALL! BASKETBALL!

[Drew]

Very excited but starting to get nervous. Would love the Heat to grab an early away game tonight.

[SHAFT]

This is gonna be an exciting series. Couldn't have asked for a better matchup. Can you imagine SA vs Boston?

[Bobmuhthol]

100 points in the first half isn't any more exciting than watching one of the best offenses against one of the best defenses. OKC/Boston would have been ideal.

[Atlanteax]

100 points in the first half isn't any more exciting than watching one of the best offenses against one of the best defenses. OKC/Boston would have been ideal.

Not really ... what if OKC's defense was more than enough for Boston's lackluster offense? (lackluster as in too dependent on Rondo & Pierce)

[Bobmuhthol]

We'll see what happens in 4Q but I'm kind of surprised that the Thunder are so closely matched at home. Still hoping for Thunder in 4.


Not really ... what if OKC's defense was more than enough for Boston's lackluster offense? (lackluster as in too dependent on Rondo & Pierce)

It's possible. Thunder defense is mediocre at best, but Boston's offense is a lot better in the playoffs than the regular season. Garnett and Bass were creating shots for themselves all day every day. Hollins was occasionally important, and so was Daniels. If any team in the NBA has a "dependent" offense, it's the Heat.

[Latrinsorm]

It felt like a bizarre night right from the top, when Van Gundy and Breen were discussing LeBron James... as he took practice shots about 4 inches behind them. It got more bizarre with OKC's music selection: Whoomp there it is and Everybody dance now? Come on, the Midwest.

Miami started with their usual small lineup, but because Perkins and Ibaka aren't post presences OKC couldn't really make them pay. In a result that was pretty shocking to me, they actually beat the Heat by going even smaller, with a lineup of Westbrook, Fisher/Harden, Sefolosha, Durant, and Collison. In a way this is a good thing for Miami: that lineup was very rarely used in the regular season (13 minutes with Harden, 2 minutes with Fisher), now Miami knows about it and can plan for it.

I was really surprised at how much of a weak link Harden was on defense. Wade was just chewing him up. Durant also had a terrible time defending James, especially in the post, but that's not as surprising considering he's giving up about 50 pounds of muscle.

Westbrook had a lot of really poor plays and a lot of really good plays.
-I would not be surprised at all if he got disqualified in a game this series for 2 technicals, he had at least two borderline plays that could have been called in addition to his slapping the ball away from Battier.
-I lost track of the times an OKC big had post position, Westbrook dribbled and stared at him, then beat his guy off the dribble and nailed a pull-up jumper. Yes it went in, but Jesus that must be annoying for the OKC player.
-The worst play had to be about halfway through the 3rd. Same as above except he relents, picks up his dribble, and decides to pass to Durant posting up Wade. Battier doubles Durant, leaving Westbrook a wide open 3 or a trivially easy pass the other way. Westbrook doesn't even flinch! He tries to force it in anyway and turns it over.
It became really clear to me what Westbrook's problem is when Van Gundy mentioned that he was a shooting guard in college. It seems so obvious now: he's just not a point guard. He's a brilliant penetrator and shooter (although inexplicably poor from 3), and is a very good passer on top of it, but he never developed PG instincts, and it really shows.

It was absolutely astonishing to watch Durant stand motionless on the wing as some of these plays happened, or later on some of the Harden-Ibaka pick and rolls. Bill Simmons gets a lot of mileage talking about how Miami's offense is dueling banjos with Wade and James, but OKC has an astonishingly poor offensive scheme.

Another good sign for the Heat was how many plays Bosh just flat out screwed up: missed rotations on defense, running to the wrong place on offense. It's to be expected after missing 9 games and coming in out of rotation, and it's also to be expected that as he gets more games under his belt the miscues will go down. Miami will figure out how to get Wade going (for one thing, getting him the hell away from Sefolosha), they've got a taste of OKC's incredible crowd, I'm very confident they'll win game 2, then things get really interesting.

[Atlanteax]

Another good sign for the Heat was how many plays Bosh just flat out screwed up: missed rotations on defense, running to the wrong place on offense. It's to be expected after missing 9 games and coming in out of rotation, and it's also to be expected that as he gets more games under his belt the miscues will go down. Miami will figure out how to get Wade going (for one thing, getting him the hell away from Sefolosha), they've got a taste of OKC's incredible crowd, I'm very confident they'll win game 2, then things get really interesting.

I thought Miami was likely to win the game considering how strong they opened the game. But I guess you could see that the 'dominating' factor was wearing off by late 2Q. I missed out on most of the 4Q, but judging from the post-game replays, OKC was consistently surging at the end and finished strong.

Presumably Miami makes the necessary adjustments to win game 2, which they've done before in the playoffs ... but if OKC wins game 2 in a similar fashion, OKC will be the champs.

[DoctorUnne]

I think OKC took a pretty good punch from Miami at the start and then just flat out outplayed them. I actually think Miami played pretty well. LeBron had a good game. Wade had kind of a poor game but he's had a lot of those recently. Battier and Chalmers started off on fire. Miami shot much better than OKC from three. I would argue Miami played closer to their ceiling than OKC did (Harden barely even played) and they still lost. Granted it was in OKC but I don't think home court matters very much to Miami.

[Androidpk]

I thought Miami was likely to win the game considering how strong they opened the game. But I guess you could see that the 'dominating' factor was wearing off by late 2Q. I missed out on most of the 4Q, but judging from the post-game replays, OKC was consistently surging at the end and finished strong.

Presumably Miami makes the necessary adjustments to win game 2, which they've done before in the playoffs ... but if OKC wins game 2 in a similar fashion, OKC will be the champs.

You can't judge a game from 1st quarter performance alone and you certainly can't judge a series by 1 or 2 games, that's just asinine.

[Valthissa]

hypothesis:

Latrin may not be rational about the Miami Heat

(I still think the Heat will win in 7)


C

[Latrinsorm]

NBA Finals, making the difference between being down 0-2 and being tied 1-1.
1:47 left, 94-91 lead, made 2 pointer.
0:09 left, 98-96 lead, defensive rebound, 2 for 2 free throws, game over.

Are we done now? Are we finished?

.

As if to show us he wasn't scared, Coach Brooks unveiled yet another obviously insane lineup at 3:40 left in the first...

Westbrook
Fisher
Harden
Sefolosha
Collison

WHAT??? And for 3 minutes! And with Miami going big with Bosh, Haslem, and no PG! We're talking a total height of 383 inches against 398, or an average height gap of 3 inches, not to mention severe athleticism disadvantages. (Miami's starting 5 is 391, OKC's 397.) Then he went BACK to a similar lineup with Perkins, then with Collison for the last 3 minutes of the 3rd. What's perhaps most astonishing is that the lineup wasn't completely ineffective: holding the margin in the 1st and closing by 2 points in the 3rd.

I also see Durant and Harden just not defending well, and Miami starting to exploit it. Ibaka is routinely the only shot blocker, he has to close hard to cover up for their gambles, one more pass and an easy bucket. The Wade to Bosh dunk to apparently (but it turned out not at all) seal the game was a good example of this.

[Latrinsorm]

Also to hopefully stave off Thunderous groaning about the officiating...

Miami 39 paint attempts, 25 fta (including 2 from an intentional foul).
OKC 30 paint attempts, 26 fta.

It's a simple game!

[Drew]

That one was a little too close. Wade played well but it's clear he's still hurt and I don't think he can play at that level the whole series (how many times can one have one's knee drained?). I think the Heat really needed that win, it's hard to see them winning 3 in a row even at home (barring Wade getting a cortesone injection and just destroying his knee or LeBron playing at levels we haven't seen before). If they grab 2 at home that leaves them to win a game 6 or 7 in OKC, definitely doable. Also can someone explain the 2-3-2 series? It doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

[Latrinsorm]

Legend has it that Red Auerbach didn't like flying all the way to Los Angeles so many times, so he put his cigar out in the commissioner's eye and made the Finals 2-3-2.

[Ugotfaced]

Also to hopefully stave off Thunderous groaning about the officiating...

Miami 39 paint attempts, 25 fta (including 2 from an intentional foul).
OKC 30 paint attempts, 26 fta.

It's a simple game!

Doesn't cover the countless away from the rim fouls called on the thunder.. KD had 5 fouls.. and I don't think anyone on the Heat even had 4.

Hopefully next year they T-up anyone who 'flops' and I don't mean just falling down, I mean flailing your arms around any time a hand goes near your body. Shit makes the game unwatchable.. Shane Battier and Chalmers are really tossing those on thick.. Battier set a pick on Westbrook and flew back like he got hit by a car. Then laid there looking at the ref for a foul..

[Latrinsorm]

1. Anyone complaining about Miami flopping when Harden got knocked over by LeBron James' spiritual pressure is a hypocrite.

2. KD had 5 fouls because he is a bad defender, started against LeBron James, and was repeatedly targeted by James and Wade after he got in foul trouble. (For the record, one player on the Heat did have 4: LeBron James.)

3. On the Battier-Westbrook play you reference, what actually happened was Battier immediately got up and ran back to the play. The guy who laid there looking for a foul was Westbrook. If you think Battier flopped, let's have Russell Westbrook run full speed into you and see how well you can stay up.

tl;dr: OKC had MORE free throw attempts and LESS attempts in the paint. Just stop.

[Drew]

3. On the Battier-Westbrook play you reference, what actually happened was Battier immediately got up and ran back to the play. The guy who laid there looking for a foul was Westbrook. If you think Battier flopped, let's have Russell Westbrook run full speed into you and see how well you can stay up.


Here's the gif, basically what you said.

http://twitpic.com/show/thumb/9wi5hh.gif

[Drew]

Westbrook is 10/24 and 10/26 in his first two games. He's taking more shots than Durant, Wade, or LeBron. The Batman & Robin thing has been asked about LeBron and Wade for the last two years but it seems clear that the person who least understands his role is Westbrook. If he was the Joe Johnson of the Thunder (and he would be without Durant) those kind of numbers would make some sense but does this kid realize that he's on the same team as Kevin Durant? I can't count the number of times I've seen Westbrook take a marginal shot this series while Durant had his guy helping off him. Anyway, I hope no one tells Westbrook this info, I'm fine with the way he's playing now.

[Atlanteax]

Westbrook is 10/24 and 10/26 in his first two games. He's taking more shots than Durant, Wade, or LeBron. The Batman & Robin thing has been asked about LeBron and Wade for the last two years but it seems clear that the person who least understands his role is Westbrook. If he was the Joe Johnson of the Thunder (and he would be without Durant) those kind of numbers would make some sense but does this kid realize that he's on the same team as Kevin Durant? I can't count the number of times I've seen Westbrook take a marginal shot this series while Durant had his guy helping off him. Anyway, I hope no one tells Westbrook this info, I'm fine with the way he's playing now.

I think there is an understanding that Westbrook is struggling to an extent with a pseudo inferiority complex to Durant? I think Scott Brooks hinted at this in the past as well. It is probably to Durant's credit, in wanting to continue to win, that he defers to Westbrook wanting spotlight attention.

With the Heat, I'd say that LeBron and Wade really do not care, and are fine 'taking turns' at the helm. It probably helps that they have Bosh as a facilitator in team unity ... which Harden probably does not do well (himself being focused on scoring).

[Latrinsorm]

One thing that I think is very underrated about the Heat is how Wade and James were friends before they started playing together. You could make an analogy to Reservoir Dogs, where if no one knows each other everyone wants to be Mr. Black. Wade is perfectly comfortable going on national television and saying LeBron is a better player, that it's Lebron's team (which must come as quite a shock to Micky Arison), etc. Bosh has become extremely comfortable moving off the ball, getting his shots here and there, even dabbling in point forward when they start sets with him at the top of the key. For all their skill set overlap, the Heat made excellent choices from a personality/social perspective.

I'm willing to give Westbrook a break, because he's just not a point guard. If he was 6'6" he'd be a perfect shooting guard: supernaturally quick, one of about one players in the NBA who can shoot off a drive, excellent athleticism. But he's not, so he gets forced into a role that he's just not capable of filling. Look at these numbers...


Year A/T FGA/A
2009 1.59 2.52
2010 2.43 1.78
2011 2.12 2.07
2012 1.51 3.50
Where "A/T" is assists per turnover and "FGA/A" is field goal attempts per assist. A few points of reference:
-Chris Paul career: 4.01 and 1.43
-Steve Nash career: 2.99 and 1.24
-Jason Kidd career: 3.02 and 1.28
-Gerald Wallace 2012: 1.48 and 3.85.
By least squares, the ten guys most like Westbrook in those figures (among those who played 1000+ minutes) are:
Gustavo Ayon, Marc Gasol, Iman Shumpert, Paul Pierce, Norris Cole, Gerald Wallace, Evan Turner, Jason Terry, Dwyane Wade, Tyreke Evans

The point of this is not to say Westbrook is good or bad, just to say that he's not a point guard. (Just like Evan Turner, Tyreke Evans, etc.) It's not a terrible thing to have him running your offense for a few plays here and there, but if you're relying on him to do so, it's going to catch up with you sooner or later.

(As a quick check for this method, I checked it against Steve Nash, and the ten were...
Jason Kidd, Rajon Rondo, Earl Watson, Ricky Rubio, Andre Miller, Beno Udrih, D.J. Augustin, Greivis Vasquez, Ramon Sessions, Steve Blake. Works for me!)

[Drew]

He looks like a young Wade did when the Heat tried to have him run point.

[Latrinsorm]

Because I'm about to close this spreadsheet without saving it, I looked up Kobe with the same method. The 5 most similar...
Carmelo, Marion, David West, Blake, Ekpe Udoh

And the least similar to everyone else, everywhere, was Steve Novak and his 28 FGA to Assist ratio: 337 shots, 12 assists. 12! Good times.

[Latrinsorm]

A few remarkable trends so far that might suddenly regress to the mean...

-Shane Battier, offensive juggernaut: 32% from 3 against the Knicks, 27% against Indy, 35% against Boston, 69% so far against OKC. 38% for his career, worse this year although not to a statistically significant degree.

-Oklahoma City immune to turnovers: after leading the NBA in turnover % with 15.3, OKC has posted values of 10.1 and 10.0 the first two games. The main culprits in the regular season were their big 3, each of which posted 14%+ figures. For the playoffs as a whole, Durant/Harden/Westbrook are at 11.2 / 12.5 / 9.1. In the first two games of the Finals, they are at 7.6 / 13.0 / 6.6. Miami was 3rd best in the regular season at forcing turnovers.

-Kevin Durant cannot miss: Durant has an absolutely beautiful jump shot, it's a work of art. Everyone has a bad shooting game sooner or later, though, and so far he has been astonishingly consistent. After 19.7% of his games in the regular season had True Shooting %s below .500, he has had exactly 1 so far in 17 playoff games (5.9%). This atypical performance has been even more pronounced in the last two 4th quarters: 6 for 10 (1 three) and 4 of 4 from the line in game one (.723) and 5 of 9 (3 threes) and 3 of 4 from the line in game two (.743). Without these scintillating performances, OKC wouldn't have been close in game 2 and could conceivably have lost game 1.

-Russell Westbrook, point guard: in regular season Thunder losses, Westbrook had 1.46 Ast/Tov and 3.94 FGA/Ast. In wins, 1.54 and 3.33. So far in the playoffs, he's at 2.68(!) and 3.30. Over the last two series, 2.58 and 2.59(!!). You wonder if he is due for a performance like game 3 at the Lakers: 7 for 18, 1 assist, loss.

[Latrinsorm]

-Shane Battier still unstoppable, so I missed that one.

-Overall not much change, but big increase for Durant and brutal down the stretch.

-.602 overall, .291 in the 4th quarter. I guess he forgot how to be clutch. He'll never win a ring. It's Westbrook's team. He's just not a winner. Herp derp.

-2.00 and 4.50. Look for more of the same!

.

Miami 40 paint attempts, 35 FTA
OKC 32 paint attempts, 24 FTA

.

In total that game really had no business being that close. It looked like both teams were trying to throw the game away. For the love of God, OKC has to adjust so that Ibaka isn't chilling with Battier at the 3 point line. It's just embarrassing. I don't know if they did this in the regular season, but their rotation is in complete flux. The minutes from game to game are weird enough, but the specific combinations are just inscrutable. Down the stretch we've had...
Westbrook - Fisher - Sefolosha - Durant - Collison
Westbrook - Fisher - Harden - Durant - Ibaka
Westbrook - Harden - Sefolosha - Durant - Perkins
Outside of Westbrook and Durant it's been a revolving door, especially at the center. It's especially odd when he absolutely refuses to tinker with his starting five.

[Latrinsorm]

I almost forgot after all the awkward and outright poor play down the stretch, but the Heat had a series at 4:02 left in the 1st that was just sublime.

1. James has it at the top of the key
2. Hands to Wade at the top of the key
3. Two-sided pick and roll with Bosh and Battier, drive and kick to James
4. Pointlessly flashy pass back to Wade in the corner
5. Pass to James under and behind basket
6. Pass to Miller for an open 3 (by about 15'), which he misses and Wade flies in to rebound

1. Pass to James
2. to Wade
3. to Battier
4. to Miller
5. to Wade
6. to James for the layup

The Heat have some possessions where they don't even pass once. This was... a lot better.

[Drew]

I almost forgot after all the awkward and outright poor play down the stretch, but the Heat had a series at 4:02 left in the 1st that was just sublime.

1. James has it at the top of the key
2. Hands to Wade at the top of the key
3. Two-sided pick and roll with Bosh and Battier, drive and kick to James
4. Pointlessly flashy pass back to Wade in the corner
5. Pass to James under and behind basket
6. Pass to Miller for an open 3 (by about 15'), which he misses and Wade flies in to rebound

1. Pass to James
2. to Wade
3. to Battier
4. to Miller
5. to Wade
6. to James for the layup

The Heat have some possessions where they don't even pass once. This was... a lot better.


I watched the game with my sister and after that series told her "enjoy it while you can, we won't see these guys forever".

[DoctorUnne]

That offensive possession was amazing.

Having said that, let's not forget

http://www.manofactionfigures.com/products/miami-heat-action-figure-3-pack-mcfarlane

McFarlane SportsPicks is no stranger to recreating some of the NBA’s greatest players as highly detailed action figures and this lineup is no exception.

This set includes:

LeBron James

Dwayne Wade

Chris Bosh

WARNING: CHOKING HAZARD - Small parts & small ball. Not for children under 3 years.

[Atlanteax]

WARNING: CHOKING HAZARD - Small parts & small ball. Not for children under 3 years.

Or for LeBron in the 4th quarter.

[SHAFT]

What a game. James doesn't look good at all. I think he's playing on a torn something

Never mind. They wouldn't be bending it like that if something were torn. Maybe it is just cramps

[Latrinsorm]

That game was baffling from start to finish. How were the Heat not inspired by LeBron's "this is game 7" speech??? What is Scott Brooks' thought process that lets him switch Durant to Chalmers but absolutely refuses to switch Ibaka off Battier or Harden off of anyone? Ibaka has been 25 feet from the basket and Harden has been getting lit up all series.

Didn't I tell you Westbrook was going to start shooting a lot more? I'm still not sure if it helped or hurt his team. 43 points on 32 shots is good, obviously, but is the reason Harden has been so poor this series simply that Westbrook is vacuuming up all his touches?

I think we saw more offensive moves from Ibaka and Collison tonight than in their entire careers put together. Ibaka with a crazy spin move into a fadeaway, Collison with a dribble drive on Chris Bosh, who was at least as surprised as the rest of us.

I was watching with someone who insisted LeBron was faking it, especially after he hit the big 3 (NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE HEART OF A CHAMPION), but after about the 9th straight Bosh-Wade pick and roll it was pretty obvious. Also him going to the bench to close the game was a pretty big tip-off.

34 paint attempts OKC, 29 Miami, but 16 to 25 FTAs. That's a little suspicious, yes. The biggest eyebrow raiser is Westbrook's 13 and 3. However, if we look a little deeper, it turns out Westbrook is in general not very good at drawing fouls. He averaged .33 FTA per FGA this season, compare to .43 for LeBron, .46 for Pierce's career, .59 for Harden. If we subtract out Westbrook, that leaves OKC at 21 and 13, which is more comparable.

LeBron is really putting together an incredible statistical Finals. 29 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 1.75 steals??? I'll look into it tomorrow, but it's hard to even imagine who could have matched those numbers. Jordan?

[SHAFT]

Not even Jordan. Maybe with the points, but not the boards, assists, ad defense too. No one recently. Perhaps Elgin Baylor back in the day. You can't count big men either.

I really hope Miami wins this thing. I appreciate the best being at their best. Wade and chalmers were out cold tonight too. Chalmers and batteier(?) have stepped up so big this series.

[Atlanteax]

That game was baffling from start to finish.

That it was...


Didn't I tell you Westbrook was going to start shooting a lot more? I'm still not sure if it helped or hurt his team. 43 points on 32 shots is good, obviously,

Will Westbrook be remembered for his 43 points or for his extremely poor play at the end of the 4th (notable that mysterious foul) ?

[DoctorUnne]

I'm not really sure why Westbrook is taking so much heat for that foul. I had no idea before that play that the shot clock reset to 5 seconds after a jump ball. I am not surprised at all that Westbrook didn't know either - I'm sure he thought they had a new shot clock. I think most players wouldn't know. How often does that happen where you get a jump ball with fewer than 5 seconds left on the shot clock? Obviously someone else or Brooks should have noticed it and alerted the team not to foul, but in the heat of the moment it's really tough to recognize odd rules like that.

[Latrinsorm]

According to Ric Bucher, Brooks did tell all his players that the Heat only had 5 seconds left: "Twittersphere hammering Scott Brooks. I'd swear I saw him tell his team 5 ticks were on shot clock. Every player looked up at it. RW, too."

I remembered two other things that should defuse any refereeing controversy: 4 of the Heat's FTAs were from intentional fouls, and there were two foul calls that should have gone against Durant that weren't called. The first on Wade's 2q drive when it was mysteriously called on Westbrook (prompting VG to facetiously suggest it be called on Cole Aldrich sitting on the bench), and another later on James' 4q drive that was called on Collison (who at least did also foul, but after Durant). Neither would really have put him in trouble (would have been his 2nd and 4th respectively), but it would be really dumb to try and screw OKC and not take every opportunity to call fouls on Durant.

Another thing I'm going to look up is whether any team has won a Finals game with a player taking 30+ shots. There are a lot of obvious candidates (AI, Kobe, Wade, Jordan), but I think it'll be interesting to see how frequently it actually happens.
Not even Jordan. Maybe with the points, but not the boards, assists, ad defense too. No one recently. Perhaps Elgin Baylor back in the day. You can't count big men either.Hakeem occurred to me just now when you said that. He didn't have a lot of assists overall, but it's conceivable he could get it up to 6 for a series.
Will Westbrook be remembered for his 43 points or for his extremely poor play at the end of the 4th (notable that mysterious foul) ?I think the foul can play into a larger narrative: that for all his astonishing physical skills, Westbrook doesn't have the mental skills needed to be a truly elite basketball player. Not just knowing obscure rules, but knowing when to pass, when to defer, broadly speaking how to be a teammate.

I don't think it's relevant (or even necessary to include), but with LeBron James stomping haters into paste certain people are going to need a new target to pop psychologize.

[Sean]

According to Ric Bucher, Brooks did tell all his players that the Heat only had 5 seconds left: "Twittersphere hammering Scott Brooks. I'd swear I saw him tell his team 5 ticks were on shot clock. Every player looked up at it. RW, too."


Thunder center Kendrick Perkins indicated the players were reminded about the shot clock. Harden said they weren't. This much is certain: There was confusion on the court when the situation called for a clear head.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--with-43-points-and-one-mistake--russell-westbrook-still-learning-in-nba-finals-.html

[Atlanteax]

I think the foul can play into a larger narrative: that for all his astonishing physical skills, Westbrook doesn't have the mental skills needed to be a truly elite basketball player. Not just knowing obscure rules, but knowing when to pass, when to defer, broadly speaking how to be a teammate.

I don't think it's relevant (or even necessary to include), but with LeBron James stomping haters into paste certain people are going to need a new target to pop psychologize.

I think this will be it. I consider it credible/plausible that the OKC players *were* indeed reminded that Heat had 5 seconds, and to just force them to take a bad shot (it was like 33 seconds when the Heat started their 24sec possession).

Westbrook was harped on in the past for questionable play-decisions ... so this incident probably will be regarded as one of the more glaring examples of RW's 'lack of mental awareness'.

[Drew]

I decided to go to the game yesterday afternoon. Needless to say, seat options were rather limited. I had to drop over 200 bones a seat for nose bleeds but was super glad I did, really exciting game, really exciting atmosphere. I also liked being there and seeing the defensive sets they were running much more clearly than on tv. You just get to see interesting things you don't get to see on tv, for instance every time LeBron gets the ball there is a very audible murmur of anticipation that comes from the crowd that turns into an urging to drive to the rim if he holds the ball for more than 5 seconds. Also you could tell that Scotty Brooks wanted to get Battier out of the zone this game because every single possession in the first half at least one Thunder player would complain to the ref about Battier while they were running back. It worked too because they called a lot of ticky tack fouls all game on Battier and he had to sit for long periods of time which ruined his rhythm. Luckily for the Heat Chalmers and Norris Cole stepped up and the Heat's "short bench" was shown again to be mostly mythical.

http://i.imgur.com/szwjll.jpg

[Latrinsorm]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--with-43-points-and-one-mistake--russell-westbrook-still-learning-in-nba-finals-.htmlThe biggest wow quote in there for me, from Westbrook earlier in the season: "My dad always emphasized growing up that the ball is my only friend."

.

It turns out 30 FGA games in the Finals occur about once a year: in the 28 years going back to 1985, it's happened 23 times...
Jordan 5-2
AI 1-3
Kobe and Hakeem 3-0
Shaquille 2-0
LeBron, Pippen, Isiah, Westbrook 0-1

Bizarre notes: all of Hakeem's came against the Magic. Two people have done it in the same game twice: Kobe vs. AI, Jordan and Pippen (albeit in a 3OT game).

.

If LeBron can stay at 29 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 1.75 steals per game, he'll be the first to do so. (Steals were first recorded in the NBA in the 1974 season.) The closest I can find does turn out to be Hakeem: 32.8, 11.5, 5.5, 2.0 in the 1995 Finals. (He also threw in 2 blocks per game, so pretty clearly a superior performance overall.) Jordan's closest was 41.0(!!!), 8.5, 6.3, 1.7 in 1993.

There were a lot of crazy Finals stat lines, here are a few of my favorites:
Shaq 2006: 13.7(!!!), 10.2, 2.8, .5, .8 blocks, and a blistering .292 FT% (14 of 48). Should they just take away his ring, or what?
Tim Duncan 2003: 24.2, 17.0(!), 5.3, 1.0, 5.3(!!!)
Michael Jordan 1991: 31.2, 6.6, 11.4(!!!!!), 2.8(!), 1.4
Larry Bird 1986: 24.0, 9.7, 9.5, 2.7, .3... exactly 2 rebounds and 3 assists shy of averaging a triple double for the Finals.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1980: 33.4, 13.6, 3.2, 0.6, 4.6(!!!)... and Magic wins the MVP! He did miss one game, but come on.

[Latrinsorm]

Getting excited for the game, are you ready for an awesome trivia question? The last NBA Finals where a player averaged double-digit assist totals...

...

...

1991. Magic Johnson (18.6 / 12.4) and Michael Jordan (31.2 and 11.4). There have been 30 double-doubles with rebounds since, and a few others with single digit points and double digit rebounds.

[Atlanteax]

48-36 for the Heat, 5:46 left in 2nd ... 14-4 run ... yes it is 'early' but certainly looks probable Heat will win in 5 games.

[Atlanteax]

51-36, Harden pulls a lucky foul call.

[Atlanteax]

90-65 Heat with 2:19 to play ... looks like a foregone conclusion now... Heat in total control.

[Drew]

I don't think I've ever seen a basketball team this hot in the NBA finals.

[SHAFT]

What a way to finish it, at home. Stoked lebron won.

Wtf does Dan Gilbert have to say now?

[SHAFT]

Not sure anything will ever beat Jordan's first championship celebration though.

[Keller]

I am glad Lebron won, as I really dislike the Lebron haters.

But between the Heat and the UK Wildcats, 2013 can't come fast enough for the sport of basketball.

[Stanley Burrell]

I am glad Lebron won, as I really dislike the Lebron haters.

QFT. And not because Lebron flaunts his Yankee hat and that makes me really happy and is the sole reason I watched any of the playoffs. Srsly.

[Latrinsorm]

Now it is done, now the story ends. And there is no way to tell it. The art of fiction is dead. Reality has strangled invention. Only the utterly impossible, the inexpressibly fantastic, can ever be plausible again.

Mike Breen brought back his "the Miami Heat like an avalanche!" line from the game 4 comeback when the Heat went up about 15. Who would have thought they'd go up 27?

Of LeBron's 19 field goal attempts, 4 came from further than 9 feet.

I was most impressed by Chris Bosh! He was everywhere in the first quarter, diving for balls, working for rebounds, setting screens off the ball. After the game I thought he would be overlooked because it doesn't always show up in the box score, except it turns out he had 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks too. Wade had a jetpack on, and Mike Miller's hands exploded with holy fire, and it was LeBron's first triple double this year, but if Bosh can bottle this and bring it out next playoffs forget about it.

I was very pleased by the outcome of this contest.

[TheEschaton]

Thank god people will stop talking about basketball for a few months now, at least.

[SHAFT]

Also regarding lebron, he closed it out with a triple double!!! Wtf am I gonna do until football now?

[DoctorUnne]

Almost as dominant a performance as the Celtics beating the Lakers 131-92 to close things out in 2008.

Congrats to LeBron. I hope he and Durant face off for the next five finals.

[AnticorRifling]

Also regarding lebron, he closed it out with a triple double!!! Wtf am I gonna do until football now?

You don't have long to wait...holy shit basketball going until mid to late June.

[SHAFT]

The remainder of June, all of July, all of August, and 1st week of September. That's a fucking eternity

[Drew]

Well, I'm on cloud 9. Fantastic win for the Heat.

[AnticorRifling]

I watched a few minutes of the game, I just can't get excited about NBA.

[Parkbandit]

Let's just get ready for Football already.

[SHAFT]

If there are any openings for the pc fantasy football league I'd like to get in.

[TheEschaton]

If there's one thing PB and I can agree on, it's football's supremacy over basketball.

[Drew]

If there are any openings for the pc fantasy football league I'd like to get in.

There are always openings.

[Parkbandit]

If there's one thing PB and I can agree on, it's football's supremacy over basketball.

Hell yea, you commie bitch!

[Keller]

If there's one thing PB and I can agree on, it's football's supremacy over basketball.

Speaking of TheE and football . . . .

http://cdn.pophangover.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/22353966.jpg

[SHAFT]

There are always openings.

Be careful about letting me into your friendly fantasy football league. I am considered one of the greatest fountains of knowledge regarding fantasy football and your league will be doomed from the date of my entry. This is a warning. Many a league have fallen to my, how shall I say, unlimited and untapped pool of knowledge.