NBA: Pace, LeBron, and the Triple Double

[Latrinsorm]

LeBron James is currently averaging 26.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game. With 9 games left to play and the probable games off he will get, it's very unlikely these numbers will dip below 25, 7, and 6 respectively. I wondered... how do those numbers stack up historically? How many players have had seasons of 25/7/6? The answer...

Oscar Robertson, 6 times, 1961-1966
Larry Bird, 4 times, 1985-1988
John Havlicek, 2 times, 1971-1972
Michael Jordan, 1 time, 1989
Jerry West, 1 time, 1966
...
LeBron James, 7 times, 2005-2006, 2008-2012

1. Pretty impressive company.
2. Pretty astonishing that he's already the all time leader in such seasons.
3. Oscar Robertson's career is so fascinating. He went from 12.5 rebounds per game in his 2nd season to 6.2 in his 7th. How many factors could have played into this? Physical fatigue and 1960s sports medicine, mental fatigue and 1960s racism, being 6'5" as the average height in the NBA crept past 6'4", expansion and influx of talent, and the main purpose of this thread: pace.

Pace is a measurement of possessions per time, specifically per 48 minutes. Because turnovers were not recorded in the NBA until 1974, pace cannot be exactly computed for years prior. However, it turns out they can be estimated to a very high degree of accuracy. One such estimate is simply (Team FGA + 0.44 * Team FTA) / G / .974. (The .974 is a correction for turnovers. It therefore assumes that teams in the past were turning the ball over at approximately the same rate as they did in the rest of history. If they turned the ball over more, this underestimates their pace. Another possible source of error is the various old free throw rules: 3 to make 2, 2 to make 1, even some obscure rule where some non-shooting fouls granted free throws without being in the bonus.)

It so happens that Oscar Robertson's last year was the first year pace can be computed exactly: the 1974 Bucks played at a 105.4 pace. The slowest pace in 1974 belonged to your New York Knickerbockers at 103.5. By comparison, the fastest pace this year is the Sacramento Kings at 94.8. That's a pretty big difference, but it's in the years we (we!) care about that it gets really astonishing: the 1962 Royals played at a 124.7 pace. So with such wildly disparate paces, we might find something interesting by setting them all to a single standard.

First we can set everyone to a 90 pace, roughly representative of the pace of LeBron's Cavaliers. Obviously this changes nothing about his 7 seasons of 25/7/6. What it does do is wipe out every one of Oscar's such seasons: he never manages to crack 25 points per game at that pace, and never gets above 9 rebounds or 8.9 assists so the triple double is out as well. The only other people with 25/7/6 seasons at 90 pace are:

Larry Bird - 1987
Michael Jordan - 1988

That's it! That's the list.

Second we can set everyone to a 120 pace, roughly representative of the pace of Oscar's Royals. This obviously produces some incredibly gaudy numbers, but intriguingly it doesn't generate any season triple doubles besides adding Oscar's 1964 season, when he played at a snail's 115.6 pace, to his 1962 campaign. LeBron gets three seasons with 10+ RPG (2008, 2009, 2012) and one with 10+ APG (2010), and Michael's season becomes 40.2 points, 9.96 rebounds, and 9.93 assists per game. (Note: there have, however, been two seasons that become triple doubles at 120 pace. Magic in 1982 with 21.6/11.2/11.1, Kidd in 2007 with 17.1/10.7/12.1.)

The conclusion is that LeBron James is never going to average a triple double in a season, even though he is a superior all around player to Oscar Robertson possession for possession. The NBA is just too big, too competitive, and too slow.

Coda: another interesting fact about Oscar is he averaged a triple double in aggregate over his first five seasons (and threw in 30 points a game for good measure). If LeBron had played at a 120 pace, he would have done the same over a three season span from 2008 to 2010: 39.1 points, 10.1 rebounds, 10.2 assists.

[Drew]

Of those 5 other players how many steals per game were they getting? LeBron is averaging almost 2 per game right now.

[Stretch]

0 titles :)

[Latrinsorm]

Of those 5 other players how many steals per game were they getting? LeBron is averaging almost 2 per game right now.Steals also weren't recorded until 1974, but Bird went 1.6, 2.0, 1.8, 1.6 and Micheal had 2.9. Fun fact: with 63 more steals, LeBron will qualify for the career leaderboard and will displace Larry Bird for 24th place.

[Valthissa]

LeBron James is currently averaging 26.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game. With 9 games left to play and the probable games off he will get, it's very unlikely these numbers will dip below 25, 7, and 6 respectively. I wondered... how do those numbers stack up historically? How many players have had seasons of 25/7/6? The answer...

Oscar Robertson, 6 times, 1961-1966
Larry Bird, 4 times, 1985-1988
John Havlicek, 2 times, 1971-1972
Michael Jordan, 1 time, 1989
Jerry West, 1 time, 1966
...
LeBron James, 7 times, 2005-2006, 2008-2012

1. Pretty impressive company.
2. Pretty astonishing that he's already the all time leader in such seasons.
3. Oscar Robertson's career is so fascinating. He went from 12.5 rebounds per game in his 2nd season to 6.2 in his 7th. How many factors could have played into this? Physical fatigue and 1960s sports medicine, mental fatigue and 1960s racism, being 6'5" as the average height in the NBA crept past 6'4", expansion and influx of talent, and the main purpose of this thread: pace.

Pace is a measurement of possessions per time, specifically per 48 minutes. Because turnovers were not recorded in the NBA until 1974, pace cannot be exactly computed for years prior. However, it turns out they can be estimated to a very high degree of accuracy. One such estimate is simply (Team FGA + 0.44 * Team FTA) / G / .974. (The .974 is a correction for turnovers. It therefore assumes that teams in the past were turning the ball over at approximately the same rate as they did in the rest of history. If they turned the ball over more, this underestimates their pace. Another possible source of error is the various old free throw rules: 3 to make 2, 2 to make 1, even some obscure rule where some non-shooting fouls granted free throws without being in the bonus.)

It so happens that Oscar Robertson's last year was the first year pace can be computed exactly: the 1974 Bucks played at a 105.4 pace. The slowest pace in 1974 belonged to your New York Knickerbockers at 103.5. By comparison, the fastest pace this year is the Sacramento Kings at 94.8. That's a pretty big difference, but it's in the years we (we!) care about that it gets really astonishing: the 1962 Royals played at a 124.7 pace. So with such wildly disparate paces, we might find something interesting by setting them all to a single standard.

First we can set everyone to a 90 pace, roughly representative of the pace of LeBron's Cavaliers. Obviously this changes nothing about his 7 seasons of 25/7/6. What it does do is wipe out every one of Oscar's such seasons: he never manages to crack 25 points per game at that pace, and never gets above 9 rebounds or 8.9 assists so the triple double is out as well. The only other people with 25/7/6 seasons at 90 pace are:

Larry Bird - 1987
Michael Jordan - 1988

That's it! That's the list.

Second we can set everyone to a 120 pace, roughly representative of the pace of Oscar's Royals. This obviously produces some incredibly gaudy numbers, but intriguingly it doesn't generate any season triple doubles besides adding Oscar's 1964 season, when he played at a snail's 115.6 pace, to his 1962 campaign. LeBron gets three seasons with 10+ RPG (2008, 2009, 2012) and one with 10+ APG (2010), and Michael's season becomes 40.2 points, 9.96 rebounds, and 9.93 assists per game. (Note: there have, however, been two seasons that become triple doubles at 120 pace. Magic in 1982 with 21.6/11.2/11.1, Kidd in 2007 with 17.1/10.7/12.1.)

The conclusion is that LeBron James is never going to average a triple double in a season, even though he is a superior all around player to Oscar Robertson possession for possession. The NBA is just too big, too competitive, and too slow.

Coda: another interesting fact about Oscar is he averaged a triple double in aggregate over his first five seasons (and threw in 30 points a game for good measure). If LeBron had played at a 120 pace, he would have done the same over a three season span from 2008 to 2010: 39.1 points, 10.1 rebounds, 10.2 assists.

You're a strange fish, insisting on comparing Lebron (best player today) with players from other eras.

Robertson is an apt comparison - physically better than every player at his position for almost his entire career. You note that his performance may have been impacted by racism. How would the Lebron of 2012 fare transported back to the 50's fare when asked to sleep on the bus because, well, you know, the hotel the team is staying at just doesn't have a room for your kind? Because that sort of thing (and worse) actually happened to Robertson.

Or compare Elgin Baylor's (I think it's '61 but it could be '62) season where he got weekend passes from military duty and flew to the games on commecial airlines. We can never know for certain but I'm guessing none of today's players would put up ~30 points and 14 rebounds a game under those conditions (were they to be transported back in time, that is).

I think Lebron's rebounds are quite low for a player of his size and skill. Since Lebron has 5 inches on Robertson one might think he would outrebound him statistically. He does see the court like Magic/Bird and his assists reflects that skill.

In the end the NBA comes down to rings - Russel > Chamberlin because of rings even though every statistic says the opposite.

I can't believe you can be a serious student of basketball and think it's all about statistics. I think the only fair comparison is to look at how much better players are against the competiton they face. Every player today is standing on the shoulder of those that came before them. As you note, the league has slowed down a lot. How much better is Lebron than his closest rival? And compare that to say Robertson-West or Magic-Bird.

Did you actually play basketball in high school or college? Lebron appears to lack the desire to do whatever it takes to get a ring. I happen to think the people that have this characteristic - Russell, Jordan, Magic, Bird, Kobe to name a few, are unpleasant human beings as a result of their obsession with winning. But it seems to be a trait needed to be among the elite in the NBA. Of course, with the team they have in Miami, they could win three or four rings. I think given Lebron's mental make up it's just as likely they will win one or none.

Anyway, I shouldn't post about basketball because I just don't like the NBA anymore, even though the players are better than when I used to watch every game I could. I still pay attention, I've just lost my appetite for the league as it stands today. (sidenote: my family is nuts about basketball, I have two sisters that are superfans - one is right behind the coach at every Timberwolves game, the other was at almost every Supersonic game from '79? to when they left. My mother and one brother are addicited to ACC basketball, UVa in particular. Mom has been going to UVa games since the late '50's).

C

[Latrinsorm]

You're a strange fish, insisting on comparing Lebron (best player today) with players from other eras.I yam what I yam, and that's all that I yam.
Robertson is an apt comparison - physically better than every player at his position for almost his entire career. You note that his performance may have been impacted by racism. How would the Lebron of 2012 fare transported back to the 50's fare when asked to sleep on the bus because, well, you know, the hotel the team is staying at just doesn't have a room for your kind? Because that sort of thing (and worse) actually happened to Robertson.I have no idea. LeBron seems like a pretty sensitive, introverted guy, so my guess is "poorly". On the other hand, the personality defects that resulted from Robertson's treatment didn't keep him from racking up statistics those first few years, and LeBron would be a point center in that era, so who knows.
I think Lebron's rebounds are quite low for a player of his size and skill. Since Lebron has 5 inches on Robertson one might think he would outrebound him statistically. He does see the court like Magic/Bird and his assists reflects that skill.I think you mention the reason in the very paragraph: LeBron has always wanted to be Magic, Magic played on the perimeter, and it's harder to get rebounds out there. I don't think it's any coincidence that he has made a pronounced effort to play in the post and his rebounds this year are at a career high. Like Kobe's insatiable desire to be Jordan, it's something that has helped and hurt his career, and it's fascinating to wonder what might have happened without the role model.
In the end the NBA comes down to rings - Russel > Chamberlin because of rings even though every statistic says the opposite.

I can't believe you can be a serious student of basketball and think it's all about statistics. I think the only fair comparison is to look at how much better players are against the competiton they face. Every player today is standing on the shoulder of those that came before them. As you note, the league has slowed down a lot. How much better is Lebron than his closest rival? And compare that to say Robertson-West or Magic-Bird.Relying solely on rings is no better than relying solely on statistics. If you rely solely on rings, you have to say Robert Horry is one of the 10 greatest players of all time. Intelligent application of statistics are what let us correct for things beyond the player's control: teammates (by and large), coaching, random noise, quirks of history. It's for that reason I would say Russell is neck and neck with Chamberlain in the fairly crowded race for second best player of all time. You can't argue with 11 rings, but the statistical dominance of Chamberlain is just too great to dismiss out of hand (and the guy's teams did win 2 rings, after all). Not just leading the league in scoring but lapping the field: 50.4 to 31.6 points per game? Come on. If it weren't for Russell, his rebounding margins would be similarly gaudy. He led the league in rebounding in his final season. We don't even have records for his blocked shots!

I further think true rivalries are few and far between, as opposed to those that are invented. Especially in today's age, where (as in today's Knicks - Heat game) players share a laugh on the court during the game. There's no rivalry there. Even a tempestuous hothead like Wade can't generate any lasting beefs. In terms of team success, I would put him ahead of anyone in his generation (so to speak). There hasn't been a real new guard title, even the Heat championship owes a lot to the broad shoulders of Shaquille. I see this year as a real changing of the guard, and we'll see what happens. Carmelo is just not good enough a player and doesn't make his teams better enough to compete with LeBron historically, it's probably down to Durant at this point.
Did you actually play basketball in high school or college? Lebron appears to lack the desire to do whatever it takes to get a ring. I happen to think the people that have this characteristic - Russell, Jordan, Magic, Bird, Kobe to name a few, are unpleasant human beings as a result of their obsession with winning. But it seems to be a trait needed to be among the elite in the NBA. Of course, with the team they have in Miami, they could win three or four rings. I think given Lebron's mental make up it's just as likely they will win one or none.If I were LeBron those first comments would drive me crazy. I carried 4 guys named Ira to the Finals (one of whom actually was named Ira). When my team's ownership proved unable or unwilling to build a championship team, I gave up money and did my best to put one together myself. Every year I bring something new to my game. I go out of my way to defend everyone on the floor. I was one of about 3 guys to start this season in shape. What more could you possibly want?

I've touched on this before, but it's very weird to me that LeBron's passing at the end of games demonstrates that he won't do whatever it takes to win. (You may not necessarily be talking about this.) To my eyes, the guy who's willing to give the glory to someone else to better secure the team victory is the guy doing whatever it takes to win. I've never felt that Kobe wanted the Lakers to win; rather, I've felt that Kobe wanted to be the guy who won the game, and if the Lakers won as a result, happy coincidence.

I played (and still play) basketball casually, never on a real team. Being skinny, uncoordinated, no ups, and not terribly tall will do that to a guy. I have nevertheless been the guy who makes the game winning shot, can you guess why? Because I got insanely lucky. In the end it's just physics. Desire doesn't alter the ball in flight, being a winner doesn't give you a friendly bounce.

[Drew]

I've never felt that Kobe wanted the Lakers to win; rather, I've felt that Kobe wanted to be the guy who won the game, and if the Lakers won as a result, happy coincidence.

Truth.

[TheEschaton]

Kobe is a huge douchebag. I personally wish LeBron would just elbow him in the face, just once - but for some reason LeBron seems like he might actually be a nice guy.

[DoctorUnne]

Truth.

Paul Pierce is right.

I fall into the camp that LeBron takes a lot of unfair criticism. He's choked a few memorable times but also been extremely clutch several times. The rep boils down to the fact that he a) joined another superstar's team and b) he doesn't have a ring. I expect he'll get a few rings before he retires, but until he does, nothing else he can do will change his rep, fair or unfair.

The accusations of passing at the end of games are a byproduct of his having not won a title. If he had a ring, I don't think people would harp on that nearly as much.

Also Latrin I think you're selling Jordan a little short using those cutoffs. Maybe he only averaged 25/7/6 once, but he averaged 30/6/5 five seasons in a row. I mean fuck he averaged 30/6/5 for his career. I'd rather have those 5 points than that rebound and assist.

[Latrinsorm]

Paul Pierce is right.

I fall into the camp that LeBron takes a lot of unfair criticism. He's choked a few memorable times but also been extremely clutch several times. The rep boils down to the fact that he a) joined another superstar's team and b) he doesn't have a ring. I expect he'll get a few rings before he retires, but until he does, nothing else he can do will change his rep, fair or unfair.

The accusations of passing at the end of games are a byproduct of his having not won a title. If he had a ring, I don't think people would harp on that nearly as much.

Also Latrin I think you're selling Jordan a little short using those cutoffs. Maybe he only averaged 25/7/6 once, but he averaged 30/6/5 five seasons in a row. I mean fuck he averaged 30/6/5 for his career. I'd rather have those 5 points than that rebound and assist.I assumed that it was understood that Jordan is clearly the greatest player of all time, and that his making this particular (arbitrary) cutoff therefore only stands to reason. Or: the point is not that 25/7/6 = great, but that 25/7/6 = unique, especially when adjusted to today's pace. LeBron 7, Bird 1, Jordan 1, everyone else who has ever played in the NBA 0. It makes the eyebrows raise, no?