Latrinsorm
04-03-2012, 01:35 PM
I present for your viewing enjoyment a case study of three teams: the 2011 Heat, the 2012 Heat, and the 2012 Lakers. In close games (those decided by 5 points or less), these teams were 6-14, 6-3, and 16-7 respectively.
First, let us consider the concept of late game execution. It is very common to see stories about Kobe hitting a game winner, LeBron passing on the final shot, etc.: stories about "closers". It is less common (but not completely unheard of) to see stories about anyone defending in the late game, unless it is something inherently remarkable like LeBron defending Rose. For the purposes of this study, I propose to measure how well a team executes in the last 3 minutes of close games on both sides of the floor.
The most obvious way to measure this is to see who scores more and allows less points. The values are as follows:
Team Scored Allowed Margin per Game
2011 Heat 167 188 -1.05
2012 Heat 79 65 1.56
2012 Lakers 162 170 -0.35
Somewhat surprisingly, the 2012 Lakers have actually been outscored over the last 3 minutes of their close games: their record if those 3 minutes actually were the only ones that mattered would be 8 wins, 3 ties, 12 losses. This is analogous to a closer in baseball: if a pitcher comes into the 9th with a 3 run lead, gives up 2 runs, and records 3 outs, he or she is still credited with a save. The 2012 Lakers are +1.87 over the first 45 minutes of close games, so their late game underperformance is not enough to result in them having an expectation of losing these close games.
An even more interesting picture is revealed by looking a little deeper using points per possession, which is a stat that means exactly what it says. Count up the possessions, count up the points scored, divide. (This is similar to the stated definition of ORtg and DRtg.) It is a more accurate measurement than points per minute because it turns out that possessions per minute go way up in the last 3 minutes of close games. This makes sense: the losing team frequently resorts to fouling the leading team, which (if done properly) results in that possession lasting only a few seconds rather than the average of about 30. It's also possible for one team to have one more possession than the other, which over a game (about 90) is insignificant but in the last 3 minutes (about 6.5) can be. The 2012 Lakers' numbers are:
Overall Close Last 3
Scored 1.066 1.065 1.073
Allowed 1.040 1.048 1.104
Margin 0.026 0.017 -0.031
The Laker offense is neither much better nor worse in closing time, but their defensive performance absolutely falls off a cliff. Yet if you google "lakers late game defense", you actually find multiple stories lauding that defense.
So to review, you will probably hear people saying that the Lakers have had good late game execution because of Kobe's hero offense, but it turns out that the Lakers have had poor late game execution because of poor team defense.
.
Next let's look at the Heat. Their struggles in close games in 2011 were well documented, especially the late game decision making(/scoring ability/heart) of LeBron James. Here are the same points per possession figures as above:
Overall Close Last 3
Scored 1.123 1.078 1.152
Allowed 1.041 1.092 1.333
Margin 0.082 -0.015 -0.182
Again, it turns out we have been looking in the wrong place all along. The 2011 Heat offense actually performed slightly better in the last 3 minutes of close games, but their defense makes the 2012 Lakers look like the 1985 Bears. When we look at the Heat this year, we find:
Overall Close Last 3
Scored 1.099 1.071 1.234
Allowed 1.021 1.064 1.016
Margin 0.078 0.007 0.219
Their offensive numbers are up in these late and close situations (although surprisingly not overall). The dramatic change is that their defensive numbers are much closer to their overall figure.
.
I would not recommend reading anything into these figures in terms of overall success, odds of playoff success, etc. As I have described earlier, the results of close games have almost nothing to do with anything. I just thought it was interesting to see how close games and late game execution interacted.
First, let us consider the concept of late game execution. It is very common to see stories about Kobe hitting a game winner, LeBron passing on the final shot, etc.: stories about "closers". It is less common (but not completely unheard of) to see stories about anyone defending in the late game, unless it is something inherently remarkable like LeBron defending Rose. For the purposes of this study, I propose to measure how well a team executes in the last 3 minutes of close games on both sides of the floor.
The most obvious way to measure this is to see who scores more and allows less points. The values are as follows:
Team Scored Allowed Margin per Game
2011 Heat 167 188 -1.05
2012 Heat 79 65 1.56
2012 Lakers 162 170 -0.35
Somewhat surprisingly, the 2012 Lakers have actually been outscored over the last 3 minutes of their close games: their record if those 3 minutes actually were the only ones that mattered would be 8 wins, 3 ties, 12 losses. This is analogous to a closer in baseball: if a pitcher comes into the 9th with a 3 run lead, gives up 2 runs, and records 3 outs, he or she is still credited with a save. The 2012 Lakers are +1.87 over the first 45 minutes of close games, so their late game underperformance is not enough to result in them having an expectation of losing these close games.
An even more interesting picture is revealed by looking a little deeper using points per possession, which is a stat that means exactly what it says. Count up the possessions, count up the points scored, divide. (This is similar to the stated definition of ORtg and DRtg.) It is a more accurate measurement than points per minute because it turns out that possessions per minute go way up in the last 3 minutes of close games. This makes sense: the losing team frequently resorts to fouling the leading team, which (if done properly) results in that possession lasting only a few seconds rather than the average of about 30. It's also possible for one team to have one more possession than the other, which over a game (about 90) is insignificant but in the last 3 minutes (about 6.5) can be. The 2012 Lakers' numbers are:
Overall Close Last 3
Scored 1.066 1.065 1.073
Allowed 1.040 1.048 1.104
Margin 0.026 0.017 -0.031
The Laker offense is neither much better nor worse in closing time, but their defensive performance absolutely falls off a cliff. Yet if you google "lakers late game defense", you actually find multiple stories lauding that defense.
So to review, you will probably hear people saying that the Lakers have had good late game execution because of Kobe's hero offense, but it turns out that the Lakers have had poor late game execution because of poor team defense.
.
Next let's look at the Heat. Their struggles in close games in 2011 were well documented, especially the late game decision making(/scoring ability/heart) of LeBron James. Here are the same points per possession figures as above:
Overall Close Last 3
Scored 1.123 1.078 1.152
Allowed 1.041 1.092 1.333
Margin 0.082 -0.015 -0.182
Again, it turns out we have been looking in the wrong place all along. The 2011 Heat offense actually performed slightly better in the last 3 minutes of close games, but their defense makes the 2012 Lakers look like the 1985 Bears. When we look at the Heat this year, we find:
Overall Close Last 3
Scored 1.099 1.071 1.234
Allowed 1.021 1.064 1.016
Margin 0.078 0.007 0.219
Their offensive numbers are up in these late and close situations (although surprisingly not overall). The dramatic change is that their defensive numbers are much closer to their overall figure.
.
I would not recommend reading anything into these figures in terms of overall success, odds of playoff success, etc. As I have described earlier, the results of close games have almost nothing to do with anything. I just thought it was interesting to see how close games and late game execution interacted.