Ball Spells: MOC vs. Lore

[DaCapn]

I've seen a lot of discussion on LNet about ball spells and splash damage. People go back and forth about whether or not to get MOC or lores. I spent some time on KP reading the mechanics on the ball spells article. The details are written in pretty informal voice and they're not very direct and clear so I may have interpreted them incorrectly. So let me restate what I think splash mechanics are like:

First roll (number of targets which can possibly be splashed):
Np = range(0,8+lore)

Second roll (number of targets which are splashed):
Ns = range(0,Np)+moc <= Np

Where "lore" represents the tier of splashes gained by elemental lore ranks (this value is 1,2,3,... at 1,3,6,10,15,21,28,36,45,55 EL ranks, check the usual places for higher tiers) and "moc" represents ranks of MOC. So the lore ranks add to the number of possible targets directly (simple linear growth in first die roll ceiling) and ranks of MOC add to the number actually hit without exceeding the result of the first roll (i.e. if moc >= Np then Ns = Np).

If you are versed in these mechanics, please either agree or disagree. If you go into some kind of explanation, please state first whether you agree or disagree with my explanation.

The table below shows the the average outcome of the second die roll (number of targets splashed, Ns) for a given first roll (possible targets, Np). Each column is a successive rank of MOC (labeled 0-5).

Np / MOC:|0|1|2|3|4|5
0|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.000
1|0.500|1.000|1.000|1.000|1.000|1.000
2|1.000|1.667|2.000|2.000|2.000|2.000
3|1.500|2.250|2.750|3.000|3.000|3.000
4|2.000|2.800|3.400|3.800|4.000|4.000
5|2.500|3.333|4.000|4.500|4.833|5.000
6|3.000|3.857|4.571|5.143|5.571|5.857
7|3.500|4.375|5.125|5.750|6.250|6.625
8|4.000|4.889|5.667|6.333|6.889|7.333
9|4.500|5.400|6.200|6.900|7.500|8.000
10|5.000|5.909|6.727|7.455|8.091|8.636
11|5.500|6.417|7.250|8.000|8.667|9.250
12|6.000|6.923|7.769|8.538|9.231|9.846
13|6.500|7.429|8.286|9.071|9.786|10.429
14|7.000|7.933|8.800|9.600|10.333|11.000
15|7.500|8.438|9.313|10.125|10.875|11.563
16|8.000|8.941|9.824|10.647|11.412|12.118
17|8.500|9.444|10.333|11.167|11.944|12.667
18|9.000|9.947|10.842|11.684|12.474|13.211

So, if you want to calculate the average number of targets splashed, Ns, average rows "0 ... (8+lore)" in column number "moc." For example, if you have 10 ranks of lore (4th tier) and 2 ranks of MOC, you should average the values in rows labeled "0 ... 12" in the column labeled "2" (Ns = 0.000 ... 7.769) to get 4.34 targets splashed on average.

Here are a couple of comparisons of all lore ranks vs. all MOC ranks:
(Assumes you have a huge number of PTP converted to MTP and that you're spending only PTPs).
3 Lore / 1 MOC : 36 TPs / 35 TPs : Ns = 2.5 / 2.686 on average
6 Lore / 2 MOC : 72 TPs / 70 TPs : Ns = 2.75 / 3.168 on average
10 Lore / 3 MOC : 120 TPs / 105 TPs : Ns = 3 / 3.503 on average
10 Lore / 4 MOC : 120 TPs / 140 TPs : Ns = 3 / 3.727 on average
15 Lore / 5 MOC : 180 TPs / 175 TPs : Ns = 3.25 / 3.868 on average

Of course, you should not forget that lores increase DF in addition to targets. I think they're more of a win in the "all of your eggs in a single basket" scenario for this reason.

If this is all sound, I'll update the ball spells KP article to be more clear and put this table up so people can weigh out their options more clearly.

[Asrial]

What makes it even more difficult a decision is the defensive properties of MOC.

Me?

I think people should at least get 5 ranks. It's not that difficult, it opens up another method of attack (or something silly to do at times), it imparts some offensive ability (ball spells), and gives a little defensive ability (DS in a swarm).

[crb]

I'm going to say it another way.

MoC raises your minimum. Lore raises your maximum.

I believe the roll is also weighted. Estild or someone said so on the boards are one time.

Like suppose your lore gives you 20 maximum targets, you don't get a random number between 1 and 20, it isn't so simple. It is weighted so the higher numbers are harder to get.

In anycase, my empath with a ton of lore but no MoC almost never hits every critter in the room. My sorcerer with 10 MoC and a ton of lore, always does.

But considering the paucity of rooms with 10+ critters in them, a mere handful of ranks is usually enough.

[Methais]

I have max fire lore and 0 MoC. I rarely have trouble hitting most if not all of the room with 908 splash.

Maybe I'm just lucky. Or extra 1337. I should poll this but I'm too lazy.

[DaCapn]

I have max fire lore and 0 MoC. I rarely have trouble hitting most if not all of the room with 908 splash.

Maybe I'm just lucky. Or extra 1337. I should poll this but I'm too lazy.

Qualitatively, I have the exact same impression.