NFL Picks - Week 7

[Latrinsorm]

San Diego at NY Jets
Chicago at Tampa Bay
Washington at Carolina
Atlanta at Detroit
Seattle at Cleveland
Denver at Miami
Houston at Tennessee
Kansas City at Oakland
Pittsburgh at Arizona
Green Bay at Minnesota
St. Louis at Dallas
Indianapolis at New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore at Jacksonville

Week 6 Recap
12-1: DoctorUnne
11-2: Keller, Parkbandit
10-3: vamosj, awol0509, Bobmuhthol, Bregus, RSR, Xorai
9-4: Ardwen, Drew, Eschaton, g++, NocturnalRob, Rinualdo, Solkern
8-5: Alfster, Atlanteax, Drevihyin, Drinin, Gibreficul, WRoss
7-6: Doughboy, Kembal, RichardCranium, Soulpieced, StabbyRogue
3-10: Revalos

[Keller]

San Diego
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Seattle
Miami
Tennessee
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
Baltimore (9)

[WRoss]

San Diego
Chicago
Carolina
Detroit
Seattle
Denver
Tennessee
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore - 42

[Alfster]

San Diego
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Detroit
Seattle
Denver
Houston
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore

33

[RSR]

San Diego
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Detroit
Cleveland
Miami
Houston
Kansas City
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
St. Louis
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore (24)

-Richard.

[Xorai]

NY Jets
Chicago
Carolina
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Tennessee
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore (38)

[Ardwen]

NY Jets
Chicago
Washington
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver this could be ugly as hell
Tennessee
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
Baltimore 27

[Kembal]

NY Jets
Tampa Bay
Washington
Detroit
Cleveland
Miami
Houston
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore (35)

[Xorai]

Denver this could be ugly as hell

Tebow, baby!


Carson Palmer went to the Raiders for anyone who didn't know. Good luck this week!

[g++]

San Diego
Chicago
Washington(Is Beck starting or not? I might have to edit this one)
Detroit
Seattle
Denver
Tennessee(Is Shaub injured?)
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore 40

Yay another terrible week of bad match ups.

[Xorai]

San Diego
Chicago
Washington(Is Beck starting or not? I might have to edit this one)
Detroit
Seattle
Denver
Tennessee(Is Shaub injured?)
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore 40

Yay another terrible week of bad match ups.

Shaub is hurt but he will start. This week is a pretty terrible one.

[g++]

Tebow, baby!


Carson Palmer went to the Raiders for anyone who didn't know. Good luck this week!


That Carson Palmer trade is insane. Theres a good chance the Raiders will win a wild card game and end up sending 2 first round picks to Cinci for an asshole QB. I mean I understand the raiders were in a bad spot but they really sand bagged the fuck out of the Ravens/Steelers/Browns 2 years from now and screwed themselves as well. Palmers ok, hes not Brady or Manning or anything hes not going to throw a team on his back, in fact he proved he will throw a team off his back and run. Definately not worth two first rounders.

[DoctorUnne]

San Diego
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Houston
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans

Baltimore

Wow there are a lot of really lopsided and really crappy games this week.

[Xorai]

That Carson Palmer trade is insane. Theres a good chance the Raiders will win a wild card game and end up sending 2 first round picks to Cinci for an asshole QB. I mean I understand the raiders were in a bad spot but they really sand bagged the fuck out of the Ravens/Steelers/Browns 2 years from now and screwed themselves as well. Palmers ok, hes not Brady or Manning or anything hes not going to throw a team on his back, in fact he proved he will throw a team off his back and run. Definately not worth two first rounders.

I have to agree, but I'm sure they're wanting to try to go as far as they can this year with Al keeling over and with the guys they had there was pretty much no chance in hell. Who else is even out there? Garrard?(lol) I think it was 1 first round and 1 second round pick though.

[g++]

The second round pick is conditional, if the raiders win a play off game it turns into a second first round pick.

[Revalos]

3 for 10! That's actively trying to get things wrong isn't it?

NY Jets
Tampa Bay
Carolina (come on...seriously)
Detroit
Seattle
Denver
Houston
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore 23

[Bobmuhthol]

3-10 is 3 for 13 brah.

[Revalos]

3-10 is 3 for 13 brah.

Even worser! I still don't know how I did it.

[Latrinsorm]

That Carson Palmer trade is insane. Theres a good chance the Raiders will win a wild card game and end up sending 2 first round picks to Cinci for an asshole QB. I mean I understand the raiders were in a bad spot but they really sand bagged the fuck out of the Ravens/Steelers/Browns 2 years from now and screwed themselves as well. Palmers ok, hes not Brady or Manning or anything hes not going to throw a team on his back, in fact he proved he will throw a team off his back and run. Definately not worth two first rounders.If Kyle Boller was my only healthy QB I think I would roll the dice on Palmer too. Draft picks are important, sure, but the draft is such a crap shoot. Look at the QBs drafted in the first round in the past 10 drafts:

David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller (lol), Rex Grossman
Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J. P. Losman
Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell (go figure)
Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
JaMarcus Russel (lol again), Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Jaaaaaaash Freeman
Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder

Obviously it's too soon to tell with the most recent guys, but look at those first six years. There are about three guys who are clearly better than Palmer out of 18 picks. Those odds are just brutal.

[g++]

Two things about that though.

1. I dont think Carson Palmer is awsome and I see ALOT of names on that list I would take over him.
2. Drafting QB's is always a crap shoot but its not any less a crap shoot throwing picks away for one that hasnt had a real practice or game in a year. Look at how well Kerry Collins worked out for instance.

[Revalos]

Two things about that though.

1. I dont think Carson Palmer is awsome and I see ALOT of names on that list I would take over him.
2. Drafting QB's is always a crap shoot but its not any less a crap shoot throwing picks away for one that hasnt had a real practice or game in a year. Look at how well Kerry Collins worked out for instance.

http://totallylookslike.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/9169b6b8-fb96-46ac-9632-7084a6a18390.jpg

[Atlanteax]

NY Jets
Tampa Bay
Washington
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Houston
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans

Baltimore

[Latrinsorm]

Two things about that though.

1. I dont think Carson Palmer is awsome and I see ALOT of names on that list I would take over him.
2. Drafting QB's is always a crap shoot but its not any less a crap shoot throwing picks away for one that hasnt had a real practice or game in a year. Look at how well Kerry Collins worked out for instance.Really? I would only take Eli, Rivers, Rodgers, and maybe Cutler. The guys from the last three years don't have enough of a track record yet imo.

Kerry Collins is also 300 years older than Abraham Lincoln, and was never in the same class as Palmer. The Raiders can compete right now with 75% of Carson Palmer, no?

[TheEschaton]

NY Jets
Chicago
Carolina
Atlanta
Seattle
Miami
Houston
Oakland
Arizona
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans

Baltimore - 26

[g++]

Really? I would only take Eli, Rivers, Rodgers, and maybe Cutler. The guys from the last three years don't have enough of a track record yet imo.

Kerry Collins is also 300 years older than Abraham Lincoln, and was never in the same class as Palmer. The Raiders can compete right now with 75% of Carson Palmer, no?

What class was Palmer ever in? Being an AFC north fan I usually saw his class on getting hit in the face right before he threw an incompletion. The dude is alright he had a pro bowl back in like 2005 before he broke his hip or whatever. He was exceptional for like one year back when Britney Spears was popular. He was worth a single second round pick max.

Also Roethlisberger is better than Palmer.

[Latrinsorm]

What class was Palmer ever in? Being an AFC north fan I usually saw his class on getting hit in the face right before he threw an incompletion. The dude is alright he had a pro bowl back in like 2005 before he broke his hip or whatever. He was exceptional for like one year back when Britney Spears was popular. He was worth a single second round pick max.Not first class, but definitely a class ahead of Kerry Collins. Being a Giants fan I watched him in his prime, I'm pretty confident about this.

Also Roethlisberger is better than Palmer.I'm not too sure. I think his success is more a product of his team being really good. The Tony Parker of the NFL, if you will.

[Drew]

San Diego
Chicago
Washington
Detroit
Cleveland
Miami
Tennessee
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
Baltimore 2

[NocturnalRob]

San Diego
Tampa Bay
Washington
Detroit
Seattle
Miami
Tennessee
Kansas City
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans

Baltimore

[Rinualdo]

Not first class, but definitely a class ahead of Kerry Collins. Being a Giants fan I watched him in his prime, I'm pretty confident about this.I'm not too sure. I think his success is more a product of his team being really good. The Tony Parker of the NFL, if you will.

Should post your own picks

[Rinualdo]

NY Jets
Tampa Bay
Washington
Detroit
Cleveland
Miami
Tennessee
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans

MON, OCT 24
Baltimore 22

[awol0509]

San Diego
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Tennessee
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore 42

[Parkbandit]

NY Jets
Chicago
Carolina
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Houston
Kansas City
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
Baltimore 17

[Latrinsorm]

Should post your own picksA lot of the fun went out of it when I found about CTE, so I don't pick anymore.

[g++]

I think his success is more a product of his team being really good. The Tony Parker of the NFL, if you will.

The thing about Roethlisberger is his greatest stregth isnt flashy. He is the most efficient QB in the NFL every single year, highest yards/attempt with a respectable completion percentage. IE the most likely to move the chains if you give him the ball. Hes not the most likely to bomb one to the end zone but hes the most likely to string a sustained drive together. So while I think his success is a product of a good team I cant think of any quarterback that isnt. Put Tom Brady on the St. Louis Rams and hes a used car salesman by christmas.

[Soulpieced]

NY Jets
Chicago
Carolina
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Houston
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans

Baltimore

[Drevihyin]

San Diego
Chicago
Carolina
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Houston
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans

Baltimore 37

[Bregus]

San Diego
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Tennessee
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans

Baltimore (39)

[Solkern]

San Diego
Chicago
Carolina
Atlanta
Cleveland
Denver
Houston
Oakland
Arizona
Green Bay
Dallas
t New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore over 9000

[Stabbyrogue]

NY Jets
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Houston
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas :(
New Orleans

MON, OCT 24
Baltimore (35)

[vamosj]

NY Jets
Tampa Bay
Washington
Detroit
Seattle
Miami
Tennessee
Kansas City
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore (Bal - 24, Jac - 10. 34 Total Points)

[Gibreficul]

San Diego
Chicago
Washington
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Tennessee
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore -5

[Drinin]

NY Jets
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Detroit
Seattle
Denver
Tennessee
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
MON, OCT 24
Baltimore--42

[Willington]

San Diego
Tampa Bay
Washington
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Houston
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans
Baltimore -21

[RichardCranium]

NY Jets
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Detroit
Cleveland
Denver
Tennessee
Oakland
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans

Baltimore {30}

[Bobmuhthol]

San Diego
Chicago
Washington
Detroit
Seattle
Denver
Houston
Oakland
Arizona
Green Bay
Dallas
New Orleans

Baltimore 34

[Bobmuhthol]

Change Seattle to Cleveland. No kickoff yet.

[Bobmuhthol]

Change Arizona to Pittsburgh.

[Drew]

NO DOLPHINS! Stop performing just adequately. We need you to be at your worst to lose to this Broncos team!

[g++]

Beck looks pretty good. I always wanted to see him start for someone.

If Hightowers leg is hurt maybe he can play QB for denver till hes better.

[Ardwen]

whole lot of awful going on today

[Revalos]

...and in the 4th quarter he rose from the dead...

Tebow Christ indeed. 15 points in under 2 minutes after scoring nothing all game?

[Drew]

Suck for Luck lives on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YEAH TEBOW!!!!!!

[Bobmuhthol]

4-3 awesome start for this guy!!!

[g++]

lol Kyle Bollers quarterback rating right now is 2

[TheEschaton]

Cleveland won, 6-3. Wow, that game must have been painful to watch.

[g++]

Soooo I picked up Demarco Murray off waivers last week ... :)

[RichardCranium]

Soooo I picked up Demarco Murray off waivers last week ... :)

I picked up Ernest Graham.

fml...

[Soulpieced]

This guy = Dominate.

[NocturnalRob]

I now officially feel bad for the Colts.

[Ardwen]

I bet none of us knew that manning played Dee and special teams for the colts too, what a ridiculously pathetic game

[Latrinsorm]

11-1 and the win, congrats: Parkbandit
10-2: Soulpieced
9-3: Xorai, Drevihyin, Solkern, StabbyRogue
8-4: Ardwen, DoctorUnne, Revalos, Atlanteax, Eschaton, RichardCranium, Bobmuhthol
7-5: WRoss, Alfster, RSR, Kembal, awol0509, Bregus, Gibreficul, Drinin, Willington
6-6: g++, Drew, Rinualdo, vamosj
5-7: NocturnalRob
5-6: Keller

[Gibreficul]

wow, that was a rough week... Meh.

[Keller]

Suck for Luck lives on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YEAH TEBOW!!!!!!

It's cute that you think you even have a chance.

[Keller]

I bet none of us knew that manning played Dee and special teams for the colts too, what a ridiculously pathetic game

This season couldn't be going better for a Colts fan.

We get to let Wayne walk (always been overrated), fire Caldwell (just a terrible coach), and draft Andrew Luck.

Enjoy the next 13 years, AFC.

[Alfster]

Yah, there's a lot of truth to your statement. Manning looked seriously pissed off last night. Just hope they keep losing, or he'll end up in Miami.

[Keller]

Yah, there's a lot of truth to your statement. Manning looked seriously pissed off last night. Just hope they keep losing, or he'll end up in Miami.

I would not be upset if the Colts drafted Luck and then traded Manning to a contender (god I wish Al Davis was alive).

[DoctorUnne]

This season couldn't be going better for a Colts fan.

We get to let Wayne walk (always been overrated), fire Caldwell (just a terrible coach), and draft Andrew Luck.

Enjoy the next 13 years, AFC.

Not sure how Luck will help a defense that is last in the league by a wide margin. Unless you think that the Colts are a bunch of quitters they would have been an average team this year even with Manning.

[g++]

Well if your offense is really good like manning usually makes it you can help your defense alot with time of possession. Saints had the ball for 40 minutes last night. Obviously thats no exuse to let them put up 62 points BUT i do think the defense looks worse then it is because of little stuff like that. The saints definately wouldnt have gotten 62 on them with a good QB in because they wouldnt have had the ball long enough to do that.

[DoctorUnne]

Curtis painter was the 9th rated QB going into last night

[Keller]

Not sure how Luck will help a defense that is last in the league by a wide margin. Unless you think that the Colts are a bunch of quitters they would have been an average team this year even with Manning.

Colts defense has been bad against the run for the last 10 years.

Our defense was built to stop the pass. It was built to stop the pass because we have Peyton Manning putting up points and forcing other teams to play from behind.

[g++]

Man we look awful.

[DoctorUnne]

Colts defense has been bad against the run for the last 10 years.

Our defense was built to stop the pass. It was built to stop the pass because we have Peyton Manning putting up points and forcing other teams to play from behind.

I agree with you that is true historically. However, this year the Colts defense has a QB rating against of 113, by far the worst in the league. The secondary blows. Mathis and Freeney haven't been nearly as effective as they used to be. So either they quit, or they're not as good as they used to be and Luck isn't going to help that. Who is the last impact player Polian drafted?

[Keller]

I agree with you that is true historically. However, this year the Colts defense has a QB rating against of 113, by far the worst in the league. The secondary blows. Mathis and Freeney haven't been nearly as effective as they used to be. So either they quit, or they're not as good as they used to be and Luck isn't going to help that. Who is the last impact player Polian drafted?

The defense isn't as effective because offenses are running a balanced gameplan.

Pat Angerer.

[Drew]

It's cute that you think you even have a chance.


How can you think it's fair that you'll get Luck after having Manning his whole career? Answer: it isn't. You guys need to go through roughly 15 years of post great QB purgatory like Miami did.

[TheEschaton]

And like Buffalo did.

[AnticorRifling]

This season couldn't be going better for a Colts fan.

We get to let Wayne walk (always been overrated), fire Caldwell (just a terrible coach), and draft Andrew Luck.

Enjoy the next 13 years, AFC.

Pretty much this.

[Ardwen]

Only problem is a winless record guarantees nothing since theres pretty good odds of 2 winless hapless teams this year, and if by some miracle the loser of the Dolphins/Rams game and the Colts win a game theres going to be a logjam for luck not suck for luck

[Parkbandit]

Man, I kicked ass.

[Keller]

And like Buffalo is.

That's better.

[Keller]

How can you think it's fair that you'll get Luck after having Manning his whole career? Answer: it isn't. You guys need to go through roughly 15 years of post great QB purgatory like Miami did.

Don't even worry. You'll be able to draft the next overrated QB out of USC.

[Keller]

Only problem is a winless record guarantees nothing since theres pretty good odds of 2 winless hapless teams this year, and if by some miracle the loser of the Dolphins/Rams game and the Colts win a game theres going to be a logjam for luck not suck for luck

Who do the Colts beat?

Jacksonville at home is the only winnable game left on the schedule.

[Parkbandit]

Who do the Colts beat?

Jacksonville at home is the only winnable game left on the schedule.

After last night, I'm not sure that's even possible...

[Keller]

After last night, I'm not sure that's even possible...

Exactly. MJD will run train on our defense.

Outside of Peyton coming back in week 16 or Tennessee's plane crashing, forcing them to forfeit their game, Indy will end the season 0-16. Just like I've been saying since week 1.

[Keller]

And for what it's worth, I think this finally ends the "who is more valuable, Peyton or Brady" debate.

[Atlanteax]

And for what it's worth, I think this finally ends the "who is more valuable, Peyton or Brady" debate.

Valid point.

[Ardwen]

hey I did say a miracle, and before last night Jax looked as bad as the colts have for the previous 5 weeks, and hell had the ravens not sucked beyond belief on offense the still could have won that debacle

[g++]

Yah I blame Cam Cameron. Jacksonville looked like it had a signed copy of our playbook. When we went to hurry up out routes which I assume werent Cam Cameron designed plays we went 90 yards in a minute 30 seconds. That game was atrocious.

[DoctorUnne]

And for what it's worth, I think this finally ends the "who is more valuable, Peyton or Brady" debate.

Matt Cassel was the QB on a division champion last year and could be another one this year.

And the Indy defense is atrocious this year. I've been hearing the mantra of we're built to play with a lead forever. Maybe it was true five years ago. They just flat out suck now. They'll suck next year even if Peyton plays if it's the same personnel.

[Keller]

Matt Cassel was the QB on a division champion last year and could be another one this year.

And the Indy defense is atrocious this year. I've been hearing the mantra of we're built to play with a lead forever. Maybe it was true five years ago. They just flat out suck now. They'll suck next year even if Peyton plays if it's the same personnel.

Only time will tell.

All I know is that the Patriots had a better record with Matt Cassel than they did the next year with Brady back under center.

Assuming the Colts go 0-16, you'll need to figure out a way to win negative one games for the same to be true of the Colts.

If the Colts win negative one games next year with Peyton under center, we can resume the Peyton/Brady argument. Otherwise, kindly admit that Brady is a good quarterback in a great system.

[Latrinsorm]

Matt Cassel was the QB on a division champion last year and could be another one this year.

And the Indy defense is atrocious this year. I've been hearing the mantra of we're built to play with a lead forever. Maybe it was true five years ago. They just flat out suck now. They'll suck next year even if Peyton plays if it's the same personnel.As you mentioned, though, Curtis Painter is a pretty good QB too. So the Patriots go from Tom Brady to a pretty good QB and come within a tiebreaker of making the playoffs (and were arguably the #4 AFC team). The Colts go from Peyton Manning to a pretty good QB and are threatening 0-16 (and are arguably the #16 AFC team). Your points about the defense are well considered, but perhaps Peyton Manning is just that good.
And like Buffalo did.The thing with post great QB purgatory is you have to have a great QB at some point. :)

[DoctorUnne]

Well Brady has outperformed Manning head to head and their performances in the playoffs give Brady a significant edge. Brady led three go-ahead drives in the late fourth quarters of Super Bowls. Manning beat Rex Grossman for one Super Bowl and when he finally had a chance to lead a game-winning drive in the next one and erase for good his legacy as someone who couldn't come through in the clutch he threw a pick six.

For the first half of their careers Manning was the Marino to Brady's Montana. Then Brady had a better season than Manning had ever had statistically and followed it up last year with a 36 TD / 4 INT season. So now Brady has the stats too.

So the missed seasons don't settle the debate. They just provide another data point. 2008 was as much a product of Belichick's genius and 2011 a product of Caldwell's incompetence as anything else. Put Dungy in charge of the Colts this year and they're not 0-7.

[Keller]

In that case, the Colts were 10-6 last year in spite of Caldwell's incompetence.

Interestingly enough that is the same record Brady had with Belichick's genius. Imagine how many 16-0 Belichick could string together with a better than good QB.

[AnticorRifling]

Well Brady has outperformed Manning head to head and their performances in the playoffs give Brady a significant edge. Brady led three go-ahead drives in the late fourth quarters of Super Bowls. Manning beat Rex Grossman for one Super Bowl and when he finally had a chance to lead a game-winning drive in the next one and erase for good his legacy as someone who couldn't come through in the clutch he threw a pick six.

For the first half of their careers Manning was the Marino to Brady's Montana. Then Brady had a better season than Manning had ever had statistically and followed it up last year with a 36 TD / 4 INT season. So now Brady has the stats too.

So the missed seasons don't settle the debate. They just provide another data point. 2008 was as much a product of Belichick's genius and 2011 a product of Caldwell's incompetence as anything else. Put Dungy in charge of the Colts this year and they're not 0-7.

I'd say the Pats have a better defense than the Colts that has to factor in if we're (well you two are I'm mostly just reading) doing a contrast and compare yes?

[RichardCranium]

Well Brady has outperformed Manning head to head and their performances in the playoffs give Brady a significant edge. Brady led three go-ahead drives in the late fourth quarters of Super Bowls. Manning beat Rex Grossman for one Super Bowl and when he finally had a chance to lead a game-winning drive in the next one and erase for good his legacy as someone who couldn't come through in the clutch he threw a pick six.

For the first half of their careers Manning was the Marino to Brady's Montana. Then Brady had a better season than Manning had ever had statistically and followed it up last year with a 36 TD / 4 INT season. So now Brady has the stats too.

So the missed seasons don't settle the debate. They just provide another data point. 2008 was as much a product of Belichick's genius and 2011 a product of Caldwell's incompetence as anything else. Put Dungy in charge of the Colts this year and they're not 0-7.

How many Super Bowl wins does Brady have without an asterick? That puts Manning ahead.

[Xorai]

Was anyone else impressed with Christian Ponder? I can see nothing but the Viking's offense improving every week from here on out.

[Kembal]

Who do the Colts beat?

Jacksonville at home is the only winnable game left on the schedule.

If I remember correctly, if both Miami and Indy finish 0-16, Miami gets the first pick based on strength of schedule tiebreaker as of right now.

If it's Indy and St. Louis, I think Indy gets the first pick.

[Parkbandit]

Was anyone else impressed with Christian Ponder? I can see nothing but the Viking's offense improving every week from here on out.

I dropped Bradford for him in another league I'm in.

[DoctorUnne]

In that case, the Colts were 10-6 last year in spite of Caldwell's incompetence.

Interestingly enough that is the same record Brady had with Belichick's genius. Imagine how many 16-0 Belichick could string together with a better than good QB.

The Colts were a 6-6 team last year that snuck into the playoffs and deservedly lost in the wild card round - with Manning. The Patriots were 14-2 and the #1 seed in the AFC and they played really badly for one game.

In 2008 the Patriots were blown out against every good team they played against. They went 4-0 against the NFC West.

The Colts also are unlucky that they are 0-7 this year. They've been blown out only twice and have had five one-score competitive games (including the Cincinnati game which was 3 points until they scored a DTD on the last drive). They're not going 0-16, although they may still get Luck.

[DoctorUnne]

I'd say the Pats have a better defense than the Colts that has to factor in if we're (well you two are I'm mostly just reading) doing a contrast and compare yes?

That was true from 2001-2004. It has not really been true since. Not coincidentally, Brady won three Super Bowls from 2001-2004.

2005 - IND had the better defense and the better team
2006 - NE had the better defense and the teams were the same (the AFC Championship game came down to the wire). This was also the year in which the superiority of the rest of the Colts offense was most obvious, pre-Moss and Welker
2007 - They had equally good defenses and NE was the better team
2009 - They had equally good defenses and IND was the better team
2010 - NE had the better defense and the better team

So 2009 and 2007 cancel each other out. The Pats went 16-0 in 2007 and the Colts could have gone 16-0 in 2009. 2005 and 2010 cancel each other out. That leaves 2006, where anyone would agree the Colts' offensive weapons were vastly superior to the Patriots' and yet the game was decided at the end.

[DoctorUnne]

I'll rest my case there since I've shot all my bullets. Look, obviously I'm a Pats fan so I'm biased. Objectively, do I really think Brady is better than Manning overall? No, but I do still think he is better in the clutch which counts for something. And I think anyone who think Brady is "merely a good QB" a la Roethlisberger or Favre is either incredibly biased or doesn't know much about football. Putting my objective hat on, Manning is probably the best QB in history. Brady is certainly top 10, probably top 5 and possibly top 3. You won't find many experts disputing that.

[Keller]

Objectively speaking, Brady isn't top 3 in the NFL currently.

[Parkbandit]

Objectively speaking, Brady isn't top 3 in the NFL currently.

Define "top 3". I could make him bottom 3 probably.. using the "right" statistic.

[Keller]

Define "top 3". I could make him bottom 3 probably.. using the "right" statistic.

Ignoring all injuries, if the NFL had a special 1-year redraft where each team drafted their team from scratch, played a single season, and then reverted back to the current rosters the next year, Brady would not be one of the first 3 QBs taken.

1. Peyton Manning
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Drew Brees
4. Tom Brady
5. Mike Vick

[Parkbandit]

Ignoring all injuries, if the NFL had a special 1-year redraft where each team drafted their team from scratch, played a single season, and then reverted back to the current rosters the next year, Brady would not be one of the first 3 QBs taken.

1. Peyton Manning
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Drew Brees
4. Tom Brady
5. Mike Vick

Again, what statistics are you basing this list on where Brady wouldn't be top 3 QBs?

Or is this just all an opinion of yours.. given Manning is #1?

[RSR]

Top 3 of all time? Please. Brady might crack the top ten. Getting caught cheating certainly doesn't help his case.

Marino
Montana
Manning
Bradshaw
Unitas
Starr
Favre
Elway
Staubach
Moon


-Richard.

[AnticorRifling]

I don't see the punky QB known as McMahon on that list so I call fraud.

[Keller]

Top 3 of all time? Please. Brady might crack the top ten. Getting caught cheating certainly doesn't help his case.

Marino
Montana
Manning
Bradshaw
Unitas
Starr
Favre
Elway
Staubach
Moon


-Richard.

No way Favre is better than Brady.

I'm no Brady apologist, but that is just wrong.

Also, this list is missing Cam Newton.

[Drew]

Ignoring all injuries, if the NFL had a special 1-year redraft where each team drafted their team from scratch, played a single season, and then reverted back to the current rosters the next year


1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Peyton Manning
4. Drew Brees

[AnticorRifling]

Boomer Esiason, clearly.

[RichardCranium]

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Peyton Manning
4. Drew Brees

1. Rodgers
2. Brady
3. Brees
4. Manning

[Keller]

1. Rodgers
2. Brady
3. Brees
4. Manning

B1G smug.

Suck it, SEC.

[Latrinsorm]

Well Brady has outperformed Manning head to head and their performances in the playoffs give Brady a significant edge.Of course he has. No one would claim the Colts were a better team over the past decade than the Patriots. The idea is that Peyton on the Patriots would have done better than Brady did.
Brady led three go-ahead drives in the late fourth quarters of Super Bowls. Manning beat Rex Grossman for one Super Bowl and when he finally had a chance to lead a game-winning drive in the next one and erase for good his legacy as someone who couldn't come through in the clutch he threw a pick six.Humans want there to be reasons. Manning didn't come through in the clutch because he's someone who couldn't. However, these conclusions are just not statistically valid. In 2009, 2.8% of Manning's passes attempted ended in interceptions - his Super Bowl performance was better than his average in that respect, how can you rationally say he didn't come through in the clutch?
For the first half of their careers Manning was the Marino to Brady's Montana. Then Brady had a better season than Manning had ever had statistically and followed it up last year with a 36 TD / 4 INT season. So now Brady has the stats too.If you discount the game where the Patriots were caught cheating, Brady didn't break Manning's single-season TD record. Even if you don't, Manning had the better overall season statistically by composite measures such as passer rating (traditional or indexed). Also worth pointing out is that in Manning's 49 season, he had three targets with 10+ TDs, and his highest target had only 30.6% of his TDs. Tom Brady had only one, good for 46%. Doesn't that suggest Manning could have performed his feat with any suite of good receivers, as opposed to needing the singular best receiver of his generation?

This also goes back to the previous points - anyone would agree that Randy Moss was a better receiver than anyone Manning was throwing to. Why wouldn't we expect Brady to have better raw numbers? I would comment on the offensive line disparity but I don't want to get banned.

[RichardCranium]

B1G smug.

Suck it, SEC.

Ha, nice.

Hey fuck you.

[DoctorUnne]

Objectively speaking, Brady isn't top 3 in the NFL currently.

I disagree, as do most other non-Colts fans here apparently, but my point was looking over their entire careers. Brees and Rodgers don't have enough of a track record to belong in the discussion. Brees is getting there.

[DoctorUnne]

Top 3 of all time? Please. Brady might crack the top ten. Getting caught cheating certainly doesn't help his case.

Marino
Montana
Manning
Bradshaw
Unitas
Starr
Favre
Elway
Staubach
Moon


-Richard.

Put Brady head to head against some of those guys and he comes out ahead on almost every metric you can think of. But way to just name the top ten QBs you can think of without including Brady.

[DoctorUnne]

How can you rationally say he didn't come through in the clutch?

Because he had a chance to win the game on the last drive and threw a pick six.


If you discount the game where the Patriots were caught cheating, Brady didn't break Manning's single-season TD record.

I won't even dignify that with a response


Even if you don't, Manning had the better overall season statistically by composite measures such as passer rating (traditional or indexed). Also worth pointing out is that in Manning's 49 season, he had three targets with 10+ TDs, and his highest target had only 30.6% of his TDs. Tom Brady had only one, good for 46%. Doesn't that suggest Manning could have performed his feat with any suite of good receivers, as opposed to needing the singular best receiver of his generation?

This also goes back to the previous points - anyone would agree that Randy Moss was a better receiver than anyone Manning was throwing to. Why wouldn't we expect Brady to have better raw numbers? I would comment on the offensive line disparity but I don't want to get banned.

Harrison, Wayne and Clark are at least as good as Moss, Welker and <insert whatever scrub was the third option that year>. And Harrison: 1,102 catches, 14,580 yards and 128 TDs. Moss: 954 catches, 14,858 yards and 153 TDs. That looks pretty similar to me. I mean fuck WAYNE had more receptions and yards than Moss did in 2007.

Manning's second highest TD year? 33. Brady threw 36 last year mostly without Moss, against 4 picks.

So sorry Latrin, but no. Maybe the Pats had an overall better o-line, but Jeff Saturday is a hall of famer. And it helps to have a 1,500 yard rusher in the backfield too. Maroney had 800 yards in 2007.

And most of you probably don't know it but Brady has a higher career QB rating than Manning does.

[Latrinsorm]

Because he had a chance to win the game on the last drive and threw a pick six.He was due to throw a pick, is my point.
I won't even dignify that with a responselol, I thought it was pretty good. :D
Harrison, Wayne and Clark are at least as good as Moss, Welker and <insert whatever scrub was the third option that year>.It was Stokley that year rather than Clark, but it's immaterial. Brady relied on Moss as much as Peyton relied on Wayne and Stokley put together. That Stokley was way better than Ben Watson is irrelevant, because Brady hardly ever threw Watson the ball. In fact, Ben Watson had fewer catches per TD (36 / 6 = 6) than Stokley (68 / 10 = 6.8).
And Harrison: 1,102 catches, 14,580 yards and 128 TDs. Moss: 954 catches, 14,858 yards and 153 TDs. That looks pretty similar to me. I mean fuck WAYNE had more receptions and yards than Moss did in 2007.If the good Lord ever puts you and I in a draft for a true fantasy team, even he will laugh in your face if you take Harrison over (or anywhere near) Moss. It's like saying Karl Malone was better than Kevin Garnett: playing next to John Stockton for 20 years is a hell of a lot better for your stats than playing next to Starbury, Terrell Brandon, Sam Cassell, etc.
Manning's second highest TD year? 33. Brady threw 36 last year mostly without Moss, against 4 picks.Why stop at second highest? Manning's third highest TD year was also 33, Brady's is only 28. Manning has 6 years of 30+ TDs (2nd most all time), Brady has 2, same as a lot of guys including one Daunte Culpepper, care to guess which WR he was playing with at the time?
So sorry Latrin, but no. Maybe the Pats had an overall better o-line, but Jeff Saturday is a hall of famer. And it helps to have a 1,500 yard rusher in the backfield too. Maroney had 800 yards in 2007.The Patriots had 1849 rushing yards (451 attempts) to the Colts' 1852 (427), and it turns out both ranked exactly 11th in yards per attempt in their given years. Maroney's 835 yards came on only 185 attempts for a respectable 4.5 average. I'm not saying he's a great running back, but you can't blame him for the Patriots being historically pass-happy in 2007.
And most of you probably don't know it but Brady has a higher career QB rating than Manning does.I knew it! Gold star please. As you say, it helps the quarterback when the team is good, and the Colts were terrible in Manning's rookie year. When we're talking about a 0.7 difference, one year could absolutely sway it. It's also going to help Brady that Manning is sidelined for the Year of Any Schmuck Can Pile Up Stats, Just Look at Eli.

[Drew]

Put Brady head to head against some of those guys and he comes out ahead on almost every metric you can think of.

This doesn't consider the era that Marino threw in, much less Unitas. What makes Marino so impressive is that he was able to pick up 5000 yards in 1984. For instance comparing the 15th place quarterback of 1984 and 2007 you see that Philip Rivers threw for 700 yards more than John Elway did in 1984 but both were statistically the 15th best quarterback by yardage. And it's still inflating, last year's 15th best quarterback by yardage was Chad Henne (ugg) who threw 3,301 yards. The rules are kinder to quarterbacks and wide receivers than they have ever been before (or as Simmons say, you can play real NFL football now like you used to play Madden). Brady is a top tier QB of this era who has been blessed with a historically good coach and excellent front office for the entirety of his career.

[DoctorUnne]

When I said every metric, I'm including rings, W-L record, efficiency stats vs. counting stats, anything. I know the rules have been changed to favor QBs, and what it's done is made having a great QB vastly more important than it was before. You can't win anymore unless you have a great QB. You could in the 60s and 70s. Bart Starr and Bradshaw were astoundingly mediocre but they played with like ten Hall of Famers each. Brady's played with one - a kicker, and another for two years.

Brady led the most prolific offense in NFL history. Randy Moss was involved in one other such offense, where he played alongside another Hall of Fame receiver. Randy Moss has been on some other teams too - he was really breathtaking in Oakland and Tennessee, as well as his second stint in Minnesota with another HOF QB throwing him the ball and a future HOF RB.

Brady also plays his home games in one of the worst weather outdoor stadiums in the NFL. He also goes to Buffalo and New York once a year. Manning plays his home games in a dome and travels down south for three road games a year. In 2007 through ten games he had 38 TDs and an average rating of 129.6. He was on pace for 61 TDs. Then he played six straight games outdoors in bad-weather stadiums. The weather alone is probably worth a 10% discount to every QBs stats every year.

[Parkbandit]

I know the rules have been changed to favor QBs, and what it's done is made having a great QB vastly more important than it was before. You can't win anymore unless you have a great QB.

The rules that favor QBs haven't changed that much in the past 10 years.. and I don't consider the following QBs "great" (They all played in the Superbowl):

Eli Manning
Rex Grossman
Matt Hasselbeck
Jake Delhomme
Brad Johnson
Rich Gannon
Trent Dilfer
Kerry Collins

[Latrinsorm]

It's interesting you should mention the weather, DoctorUnne. I've always thought as you do that Brady-esque quarterbacks would be at a disadvantage, but consider his regular season splits by month:

September: 95.6 passer rating, 1.94 TDs/game
October: 98.2, 1.98
November: 95.9, 1.89
December: 93.5, 1.63
Overall: 95.6, 1.83

And compare to Peyton's:

September: 95.2, 1.98
October: 98.3, 2.04
November: 89.9(!), 2.02
December: 98.1, 1.80
Overall: 94.9, 1.92

And let's throw in Drew Bledsoe (note that this is over his whole career, but with only 2 years in Dallas compared to 9 in New England and 3 in Canada I think it fits the bill):

September: 83.1, 1.47
October: 78.2, 1.27
November: 73.4, 1.07
December: 72.0, 1.30
Overall: 77.1, 1.29

It just doesn't look like climate plays into it to a statistically significant degree:
- Brady's worst numbers are in December, but it's pretty cold in New England in November too, why are those numbers indistinguishable from September?
- Bledsoe sees a big(?) dip in TD/game in November, then does dramatically better in December.
- Peyton has a bigger dip from the mean in rating (5.0) than Brady does (2.3), indicating that dips of that size are not necessarily related to home climate.
- Reinforcing the previous point, Peyton also sees a dip in TD/game in December. There are no cats in America, and there is no snow in Jacksonville.

I've looked at the stats in a bunch of ways (attempts per game, completion %, etc.) and they all tell the same story. I'm frankly a little puzzled by it, but I don't have any reason to disagree with the conclusion.

[DoctorUnne]

I think by taking the overall monthly stats it's probably too muddled. Plenty of those were probably games where the weather was fine, and there were probably some November games with worse weather. But you can't argue that Brady has played in significantly more bad weather games than Manning, and I bet if you actually handpicked say the 30 or 40 worst weather games (wind is as important as precipitation) for each you would see that Brady's stats in those games are significantly worse, namely because Manning hasn't had 30-40 such games.

However if you took the 10 worst weather games for each you'd probably see Brady's numbers as better than Manning's, because he's more used to it. The 2004 playoffs comes to mind.

[DoctorUnne]

The rules that favor QBs haven't changed that much in the past 10 years.. and I don't consider the following QBs "great" (They all played in the Superbowl):

Eli Manning
Rex Grossman
Matt Hasselbeck
Jake Delhomme
Brad Johnson
Rich Gannon
Trent Dilfer
Kerry Collins

5 of those happened before 2005 when they changed the DB rules to allow less contact. Since 2005, 9 of the 12 starting QBs have been pretty damn good.

[Parkbandit]

5 of those happened before 2005 when they changed the DB rules to allow less contact. Since 2005, 9 of the 12 starting QBs have been pretty damn good.

So, using your standards and timeline.. you CAN win without a great QB still.

[DoctorUnne]

So, using your standards and timeline.. you CAN win without a great QB still.

Well... the only one of those who actually WON was Eli and he's really not that bad (not to mention he needed a miracle to win it). Not great but he's in the top 10. And Hasselbeck was pretty good in 2005 too. The only one of those who was truly awful was Grossman.

Sure it's possible but extremely unlikely. Take my statement in the context it was intended.

[Keller]

Is there a stat for giving up a safety on a play starting at the 30 yard line?

If so, chalk up another statistical category Brady leads.

[Bobmuhthol]

Fuck you bro.

[DoctorUnne]

Is there a stat for giving up a safety on a play starting at the 30 yard line?

If so, chalk up another statistical category Brady leads.

You mean on a play that Polamalu illegally punched the ball 30 yards backwards?

[Latrinsorm]

Punch rules are weird. The rule states that you can't do it, ever, and yet defenders do it all the time and I don't think I've ever seen someone called for it.

Anyway, Troy Polamalu has way better hair than Tom Brady, so he wins.

[Keller]

You mean on a play that Polamalu illegally punched the ball 30 yards backwards?

He does it in practice all the time.

I'm sure someone in the Patriots organization has the videos.

[TheEschaton]

The Patriots complaining about anyone rule breaking is hilariously ridiculous.

[Keller]

The Patriots complaining about anyone rule breaking is hilariously ridiculous.

You need to get on my level of passive aggressive Patriot hated/ridicule.