Stock market

[Parkbandit]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand, I'm out. Maybe a little early but better safe than sorry.

[Celephais]

Something prompt this?

[Paradii]

There was a black man spotted near the white house.

[Ashliana]

Something prompt this?

Economic data. Housing, jobs, etc. Things are not looking optimistic.

[AnticorRifling]

There was a black man spotted near the white house.

LOL


I don't follow the stock market much/at all but I'm guessing the article I read about housing market still not leveled off and a few other industries feeling the effects would be a strong cause for most folks that are selling right now.

[Cephalopod]

Yeah, now is not a bad time to get out of many sectors, at least temporarily. Or about a week ago. The less-than-encouraging economic and housing numbers are making the double-dip look more likely, even if it isn't going to happen.

[NocturnalRob]

If you don't have time to day trade, follow market trends, and do the necessary due diligence (which I definitely do not), I am in total agreement. People that are blindly throwing money at their 401(k) these days make me want to cockpunch a baby panda.

http://i261.photobucket.com/albums/ii55/simpson316/myball.jpg

[peam]

Bill Brasky cornered the market on booze.

[Parkbandit]

Economic data. Housing, jobs, etc. Things are not looking optimistic.

Housing was expected IMO. The tax credit expired so anyone who was in the market to buy a house did it months earlier than they probably would have.

The economic outlook is what made me get out.. but an economic "measurement" called the Hindenburg is what made me start getting out last Friday.

[Clove]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand, I'm out. Maybe a little early but better safe than sorry.At your age? I'm surprised you were still in...

[Bobmuhthol]

I'm totally in. Gold mining is GOING BIG.

Newmont Mining is already up 1.33% on the day motherfuckers!!

[Drew]

I've been out since 2009. I missed some profits but I'm fine with that. I got out in 2007 because I thought the drop was imminent, and that was a little early, but I got back in after the drop and tripled my money then I got out again. I'm very fine with tripling my money after losing nothing.

[Parkbandit]

At your age? I'm surprised you were still in...

Please don't make this into another thread where you say it's a good idea to get into the stock market.. we know how that made you look the last time.

[Clove]

Please don't make this into another thread where you say it's a good idea to get into the stock market.. we know how that made you look the last time.Really? How did you make me look? The exact advice I gave (which wasn't an uncommon suggestion at the time by investment brokers) was that it was a good time to expand on 401K stock options because your dollar was going further which I qualified by saying it would not be a good idea if you were cashing out for retirement soon.

It was a sound strategy which you could find no particular flaw in much in the same way you cannot define the difference between income and earnings.

[Parkbandit]

Really? How did you make me look? The exact advice I gave (which wasn't an uncommon suggestion at the time by investment brokers) was that it was a good time to expand on 401K stock options because your dollar was going further which I qualified by saying it would not be a good idea if you were cashing out for retirement soon.

Actually, you said it was a good time to get into the stock market.. after many people (including myself) said it wasn't. Turned out that I was right on the money.. and you were left defending your poor advice to the bitter end. Shocker there.



It was a sound strategy which you could find no particular flaw in much in the same way you cannot define the difference between income and earnings.

It was a terrible strategy which I found many flaws in. And I wasn't the idiot who said that income and earnings were interchangeable.. that was you.

Wait.. what exactly do you do for a living again? Giving people financial advice? That is hilarious... given that you "own" the company.

[Clove]

Actually, you said it was a good time to get into the stock market.. after many people (including myself) said it wasn't. Turned out that I was right on the money.. and you were left defending your poor advice to the bitter end. Shocker there.http://forum.gsplayers.com/showpost.php?p=814758&postcount=123

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10401395/four-ways-to-optimize-your-401k.html


1. Consider Being More Aggressive

Recent events notwithstanding, stocks perform better than other investment vehicles over time. The typical stock fund averaged a 10.4% annual return from 1926 to 2005, compared with 3% for inflation, less than 6% for bond funds and less than 4% for Treasuries. And while stocks can be volatile, the risk of holding them diminishes over time.
Stocks have outpaced both bonds and Treasury bills during more than 75% of rolling five-year periods since 1926, according to Ibbotson Associates, a Chicago-based investment research firm owned by Morningstar. Look at 10-year periods, and stocks won 85% of the time. For 15-year periods, the percentage jumps to 92%. Your allocation to stocks should match your time horizon and risk tolerance.
Remember: your target date should not be the year you retire. Your retirement may well last for decades, and during that time your portfolio will need to grow enough to stand up to inflation, including rising health-care costs. Bottom line: Even as you approach and pass the end of your working years, don't be afraid to emphasize growth -- meaning stocks. Published Feb. 2008.


And I wasn't the idiot who said that income and earnings were interchangeable.. that was you.Which is why you should be able to tell everyone the difference (and thereby point out my idiocy). Please Parkbandit, enlighten me.


Wait.. what exactly do you do for a living again? Giving people financial advice? That is hilarious... given that you "own" the company.I give tax advice too. Given that you can't correctly claim one of the simplest tax deductions available, it's a good thing.

[Parkbandit]

Really? How did you make me look? The exact advice I gave (which wasn't an uncommon suggestion at the time by investment brokers) was that it was a good time to expand on 401K stock options because your dollar was going further which I qualified by saying it would not be a good idea if you were cashing out for retirement soon.


To be perfectly honest, here is the exact advice you gave after Kranar posted this:


Wow a second day of the market getting toasted.

And yet the American people are $700 billion dollars poorer.

But as they say, "Now is a great time to buy, Apple is below $100. This has gotta be the bottom."

In my business we have a saying for people who have expressed that sentiment:

Famous last words.


Buy.


Or in otherwords. BUY.

You only go "broke" if you spend more money buying than you have (say no to margin).


If you're in the last 10 year stretch before retirement and your 401k is in stocks... they shouldn't be. Otherwise- BUY!


7 dollars a share if you go by Wells Fargo. With 783 billion in total assets I don't think this merger is going to send any stockholders to the poor house.

Buy. Diversify. (Happy?)


Let's look back at the Dow during this discussion...

10/3/08 - 10,325.38
10/6/08 - 9,955.50
10/7/08 - 9,447.11
10/10/08 - 8,451.19
10/27/08 - 8,175.77
11/20/08 - 7,552.29
3/9/09 - 6,547.05

So your advice was "BUY".. and then you watched the Dow slip down another almost 3,400 points.

[Clove]

Dow is 10,022 ATM. my 401k is very healthy ATM and I expect great growth over the next 20 years.

[NocturnalRob]

So...2 years later the Dow is still below where it was in 2008, and you think you were right to buy?

edit: To be fair, I don't give financial advice for a living, so I would actually like to hear your justification.

[Clove]

So...2 years later the Dow is still below where it was in 2008, and you think you were right to buy?

edit: To be fair, I don't give financial advice for a living, so I would actually like to hear your justification.That's ATM. Over the ttm the Dow's high was 11,258.01.

Over 15-25 years well diversified funds out-perform bonds and treasury bills. As I stipulated if you were cashing out any time soon it wasn't the time to buy.


Buffett is filling up his personal portfolio with American stocks with the goal of having an asset allocation 100% in equities in a short time. He sees fear in the market now, and he is sticking to a mantra that has worked well for him throughout his life: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by [a gain of 17,320% in the Dow]. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

This is an opportunity that comes around only once every few decades. If you want to have the long-term gains that financial advisers claim stocks can provide, you have to buy low and sell high rather than buy happy and sell afraid.Published 10/16/2008.

[Mighty Nikkisaurus]

If you're not going to be cashing out for 20-30 years (aka you're still young and retirement is a ways off) it's not really a big deal.

[Parkbandit]

So...2 years later the Dow is still below where it was in 2008, and you think you were right to buy?

edit: To be fair, I don't give financial advice for a living, so I would actually like to hear your justification.

The justification is only that he was wrong then.. and he continues to be wrong today... but he MUST DEFEND THE STUPIDITY!!!

Who, in their right mind, would buy something as an investment and think their investment is "very healthy" when it didn't gain anything in 2 years?

On the other hand, I gave very sound advice of getting out of the stock market and that it would hit as low as 7500. Even that advice was bad since it hit 6500 in March of 2009... but no where near as bad as Clove's "BUY" advice on 10/6/08... poor advice he is STILL trying to defend today.

Hilarious.

[Clove]

The justification is only that he was wrong then.. and he continues to be wrong today... but he MUST DEFEND THE STUPIDITY!!!Hey, can you tell me how earnings, profit and income are different?


Who, in their right mind, would buy something as an investment and think their investment is "very healthy" when it didn't gain anything in 2 years?So you missed that 11k high in the past 52 weeks? You also missed my contingencies? Or did you miss that Warren Buffett was also aggressively buying in October 2008? He's such a n00b.

[Warriorbird]

I'm betting against America once again in some critical areas. Parkbandit and I may disagree on a lot of things but I don't disagree with him here.

[Clove]

The way the debt is piling up? I don't disagree with him here either. Especially at his age. He just likes to bring up my advice to buy in 2008 every time I post (even though I didn't say sell yet). I guess he thinks it poisons the well of every topic because he thinks I had a bad opinion once.

Still waiting for him to tell me how earnings and profits are different.

[Parkbandit]

If you're not going to be cashing out for 20-30 years (aka you're still young and retirement is a ways off) it's not really a big deal.

Let's say you took my advice...

Pretend for a moment you had $100,000 invested in the Dow Jones.

$100,000 = 10 shares of Dow Jones on 10/6/08. You took it out of the stock market and put it in a very low risk investment.

On 11/20/08, you used that $100,000 to buy 13.3 shares of Dow Jones (The price was 7500ish)

Today, that stock would be worth 10,040 a share... or a total investment of $133,500.

Would you rather have $100,000 or $133,500? It may not make a difference to you right now, but it has the opportunity to make a HUGE difference over a 20 - 30 year period. This was a 2 year period.. and you just made 30% instead of 0%.

[Archigeek]

If I wasn't hoarding cash as I start a business, I'd be looking for bargains right now. I've always found that the key is to be very selective and do your homework. Just buying because you think the timing is right is dumb. You've got to know what you're buying, what you think it's worth, and the difference between the price today and that value.

Those who buy into total market indexes with the hope of reaping average returns, are doomed to get what they wish for.

And of course, past results do not guarantee future returns. Any strategy can result in a loss.

[Parkbandit]

Hey, can you tell me how earnings, profit and income are different?


I don't blame you for attempting to deflect your stupidity. I mean, heck, if I was just schooled by some old fucker in Florida and he doesn't do that for a living when I do... I sure would want to deflect as much as possible.



So you missed that 11k high in the past 52 weeks? You also missed my contingencies?

So.. you would trade 1,000 point high for a 3,400 point low.. and you think you made out?

The hilarity ensues... glad you brought this up again.




Or did you miss that Warren Buffett was also aggressively buying in October 2008? He's such a n00b.

And like I've already stated in a previous thread.. Warren Buffett got a sweatheart deal that anyone with a couple extra billion dollars sitting around would have taken.

[Parkbandit]

The way the debt is piling up? I don't disagree with him here either. Especially at his age. He just likes to bring up my advice to buy in 2008 every time I post (even though I didn't say sell yet). I guess he thinks it poisons the well of every topic because he thinks I had a bad opinion once.

You mean like you bring up profits and earnings in every thread?




Still waiting for him to tell me how earnings and profits are different.

Right on que.

[Parkbandit]

I'm betting against America once again in some critical areas. Parkbandit and I may disagree on a lot of things but I don't disagree with him here.

Shocking! You mean you believe in the old "Buy low, sell high" crazy theory!?

[Clove]

You mean like you bring up profits and earnings in every thread?Exactly. Annoying isn't it. Especially since you hate when people won't admit when they're wrong, right?


Right on que.You DO know the difference, right? Savvy investor and businessman like you?

BTW in April she would have made 12% profit vs. your 45% (I probably saved you at least that much in penalty interest for your misfiled charitable expenses). Of course it's true that later the market went down even further. I don't believe I told anyone to buy that day and not anymore. I gave the most basic advice of all buy low. If you can't understand that you obviously don't know the difference between income and earnings.

[Cephalopod]

I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I use it, I have a little. I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator. I'd like to put more in that jar.

[Clove]

I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I use it, I have a little. I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator. I'd like to put more in that jar.Thanks Adam.

[NocturnalRob]

I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I use it, I have a little. I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator. I'd like to put more in that jar.
That's where you come in.

[Warriorbird]

Shocking! You mean you believe in the old "Buy low, sell high" crazy theory!?

I'm a capitalist in the off season. I also really like believing things will fail.

[Mighty Nikkisaurus]

Clove and PB arguing semantics again?


http://media.giantbomb.com/uploads/4/45270/1253930-this_thread_again_super.jpg

[Clove]

Yup. Every time he shoots his mouth off about a 2 year old opinion.

[NocturnalRob]

Every time he shoots his mouth off

http://randomfunnypicture.com/wp2/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/pew-pew-tattoo-lightning-bolt.jpg

[Parkbandit]

Clove and PB arguing semantics again?


http://media.giantbomb.com/uploads/4/45270/1253930-this_thread_again_super.jpg

What part of my discussion would you consider "semantic"?

I believe Clove is the only one involved in semantic discussion.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

Warren Buffett is brilliant, no doubt. His net worth went from $62B in 2008, to $37B in 2009, and now $47B in 2010. This does little to determine if his efforts paid off or not.. but arguably withdrawing his $62B in 08 and reinvesting in 2010 would have been better. According to Forbes, Buffett lost $25 billion in 12 months during 2008/2009

Of course, he operates at a very different level than Joe Public investors; it's not like he can pull out of the stock market like they can.

[Clove]

What part of my discussion would you consider "semantic"?

I believe Clove is the only one involved in semantic discussion.Actually I'm asking for a definition. The one you know enough to call out my idiocy on.

[Parkbandit]

Exactly. Annoying isn't it. Especially since you hate when people won't admit when they're wrong, right?

You DO know the difference, right? Savvy investor and businessman like you?



I do. And no, I don't find it annoying.. I find you amusing and hypocritical that you would point out that I was doing it.. yet you've taken it to the extreme in multiple threads.



BTW in April she would have made 12% profit vs. your 45%

Yes.. but I'm guessing that if she believes your advice to be fiscally sound, she wouldn't have taken any money out in April.. and she would still be sitting where you are now... 0% gain.


(I probably saved you at least that much in penalty interest for your misfiled charitable expenses).

See above.... yet again. Drew seems to have been a bit low in his estimation of 20 times....


Of course it's true that later the market went down even further. I don't believe I told anyone to buy that day and not anymore.

:rofl:

So now, your "advice" has morphed into buy all the time?


I gave the most basic advice of all buy low. If you can't understand that you obviously don't know the difference between income and earnings.

There is a difference between buying low.. and buying when it's slightly lower. You do realize that the next day, that price will be even lower.. meaning you buy low at all.. right?

I'm still waiting for someone to step up and say you offered good financial advice to buy into the stock market at 10,000 in October '08. I'd like to say I can't believe you are still defending that really stupid position.. but I'm not surprised at all.

Heck, your 401K is "healthy", right?

:rofl:

[Parkbandit]

Warren Buffett is brilliant, no doubt. His net worth went from $62B in 2008, to $37B in 2009, and now $47B in 2010. This does little to determine if his efforts paid off or not.. but arguably withdrawing his $62B in 08 and reinvesting in 2010 would have been better. According to Forbes, Buffett lost $25 billion in 12 months during 2008/2009


:rofl:
Where the heck is CT!?!?

[Ashliana]

Buffett has been giving away lots of his fortune to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Dunno if that's factoring into your statements, Mage.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

LOL, rereading my post I make it sound like I don't think Buffett is brilliant. I actually do - the guy is crazy smart. Just saying using him as an example is not the best support for Clove's case. Even Buffett can be wrong at times.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

Buffett has been giving away lots of his fortune to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Dunno if that's factoring into your statements, Mage.

Understood, which is why I mentioned the Forbes comment on the $25B.

[Bobmuhthol]

JUST RIDING HIGH ON MY 2.88% GAIN IN NEWMONT MINING CORP TODAY DON'T MIND ME WHILE I IGNORE THIS THREAD TO THE BANK.

[Warriorbird]

Solid.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

Is that the mine where the 33 workers are trapped in a room the size of a small apartment, and won't be able to be rescued for 4 months?

That's a reality show waiting to happen, they should send down a camera through the small air hole they drilled and pass food/water through.

[Bobmuhthol]

MORE IMPORTANTLY GOLDCORP IS UP 3.20% LOL GOLD IS KING

[Cephalopod]

That's a reality show waiting to happen, they should send down a camera through the small air hole they drilled and pass food/water through.

Yeah, just wait until they have to pass it BACK for disposal.

[Bobmuhthol]

Is that the mine where the 33 workers are trapped in a room the size of a small apartment, and won't be able to be rescued for 4 months?

That's a reality show waiting to happen, they should send down a camera through the small air hole they drilled and pass food/water through.

I know nothing about this event but some quick Googling is suggesting that the mine is not owned by Newmont and it's a copper+gold mine in South America.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

I see cannibalism in their future. I guess they are subsisting on two bites of tuna every 48 hours?

[NocturnalRob]

JUST RIDING HIGH ON MY 2.88% GAIN IN NEWMONT MINING CORP TODAY DON'T MIND ME WHILE I IGNORE THIS THREAD TO THE BANK.
HOW MANY SHARES DO YOU OWN!?

[Bobmuhthol]

IT DOESN'T MATTER BECAUSE IT'S A PERCENTAGE GAIN SO ONLY DOLLAR AMOUNTS ARE RELEVANT BUT I OWN ABOUT $100 OF IT AS PART OF A SMALL MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENT (FSAGX)!!

[NocturnalRob]

CONGRATULATIONS! I WISH YOU WELL IN YOUR FUTURE INVESTMENTS!

[WRoss]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand, I'm out. Maybe a little early but better safe than sorry.

I sold out a while ago, probably too early as I missed out on about 8% growth, but in the long run, it was safer. I put quite a bit in metal and might put the rest in unless a business venture gets going soon.

[Drisco]

Do you all manage your own portfolios?

[NocturnalRob]

I'd say...strong to quite strong

[Bobmuhthol]

I do because as someone knowledgeable in finance I understand that most people who claim to know anything don't. And it would be embarrassing if I had to have someone else do it for me.

[WRoss]

I get some help from people in my family. I trust them because they have all done very well in the market.

[Drew]

Do you all manage your own portfolios?

Yes, I work at a hedge fund so my job helps me pay attention to it. Not that anyone I work with agrees with how I invest, but they all lost money and I didn't.

[AnticorRifling]

What's a portfolio?

[Clove]

I do. And no, I don't find it annoying.. I find you amusing and hypocritical that you would point out that I was doing it.. yet you've taken it to the extreme in multiple threads.What is the difference then? You want to shut me up? Define the difference between income, earnings and profit. I don't think you understand the definition of hypocrite either, honestly. I am reacting with the same tactic you use which hardly makes me a hypocrite; and even if it did, you could hardly call me one, could you?




Yes.. but I'm guessing that if she believes your advice to be fiscally sound, she wouldn't have taken any money out in April.. and she would still be sitting where you are now... 0% gain.If she believed my advice sound she'd wouldn't take her money out for at least another 13 years.

http://www.independent-investor.com/2010/01/john-templetons-2020-vision.html

http://www.ibj.com/newstalk/2010/07/29/newstalk-template/PARAMS/post/21382


:rofl:

So now, your "advice" has morphed into buy all the time?Nope, I'm pointing out that the market was low in October 2008 (at the time many financial experts believed that Oct. 08 was the bottom) and that it would be a good time to increase 401k stock holdings if you weren't cashing out any time soon. You know. Like in 2 years. I don't know about you but I continually add to my 401k fund. You have a comprehension problem, don't you?




There is a difference between buying low.. and buying when it's slightly lower. You do realize that the next day, that price will be even lower.. meaning you buy low at all.. right?Yup and at the time many experts believed it was at its lowest (it was certainly very low). What you've pointed out (for the past two years) is that in hindsight there was a better buy. I don't dispute that, but again if you increased your stock holdings in 401k funds you would have appreciated the lower prices later, too. Wouldn't you?


I'm still waiting for someone to step up and say you offered good financial advice to buy into the stock market at 10,000 in October '08. I'd like to say I can't believe you are still defending that really stupid positionI can't believe you still won't explain the difference between income, earnings and profits.

[Warriorbird]

Do you all manage your own portfolios?

Yes. I do consult with my grandparents though RE: one end of the family.

[Parkbandit]

What is the difference then? You want to shut me up? Define the difference between income, earnings and profit. I don't think you understand the definition of hypocrite either, honestly. I am reacting with the same tactic you use which hardly makes me a hypocrite; and even if it did, you could hardly call me one, could you?


You are not reacting to me.. I'm reacting to you. You are the one that was complaining I kept bringing up your terrible stock advice.. and in the same post wanted to know if I could give you definitions of words you should already know.. but clearly are confused about. It's a clear case of you being a hypocrite... much like it's a clear case of you dispensing ignorant financial advice.



If she believed my advice sound she'd wouldn't take her money out for at least another 13 years.


If that is the case, then why did you bring up the 11,000 point hit the Dow managed to achieve in April? You do realize that since the Dow is now 10,000.. you lost that opportunity, don't you? I have a bad feeling that you do not... which is pretty sad, given your supposed job at "your" company.



Nope, I'm pointing out that the market was low in October 2008 (at the time many financial experts believed that Oct. 08 was the bottom) and that it would be a good time to increase 401k stock holdings if you weren't cashing out any time soon. You know. Like in 2 years. I don't know about you but I continually add to my 401k fund. You have a comprehension problem, don't you?


Looking back.. which advice would garner you more money today:

Clove - Buy!
PB - Take it out and reinvest it when the Dow hits 7500

It's a pretty easy question that should have a pretty easy answer... let's see if you can figure it out (HINT: I've already given you the correct answer in this thread with a easy example that any idiot could realize)



Yup and at the time many experts believed it was at its lowest (it was certainly very low). What you've pointed out (for the past two years) is that in hindsight there was a better buy. I don't dispute that, but again if you increased your stock holdings in 401k funds you would have appreciated the lower prices later, too. Wouldn't you?

Your 401K contributions do not have to be thrown away in a stock market fund... you have a wide variety of investment options. I chose to take the low risk ones not tied to the stock market... you kept throwing your money away because "many experts" told you to.

I wonder who's 401K plan had a better performance record over the past 2 years.. yours or mine. Want to compare percentages?



I can't believe you still won't explain the difference between income, earnings and profits.

I still can't believe you don't know the difference...

But hey.. keep bumping this thread! I was a little bit disappointed that you didn't respond to it yesterday and thought you had finally realized how utterly stupid you were sounding... but thankfully, you didn't so the hilarity can continue.

[WRoss]

Damn, just checked out SO...I really shouldn't have sold that in March.

[Clove]

You are not reacting to me.. I'm reacting to you. You are the one that was complaining I kept bringing up your terrible stock advice.. and in the same post wanted to know if I could give you definitions of words you should already know.. but clearly are confused about. It's a clear case of you being a hypocrite...Like I said, you've had this pattern of behavior for some time now, so you're getting it back. If it makes you feel better to (hypocritically) call people hypocrites; well, whatever makes you feel good old man.


If that is the case, then why did you bring up the 11,000 point hit the Dow managed to achieve in April? You do realize that since the Dow is now 10,000.. you lost that opportunity, don't you? I have a bad feeling that you do not... which is pretty sad, given your supposed job at "your" company.Pointing out that the price will change over time.





Clove - Buy!
PB - Take it out and reinvest it when the Dow hits 7500Either. Since I was talking about 401k stock contributions (which are continual) and the Dow took a huge dive in prices that hadn't been seen in 5 years, it was a good time-period to add stocks to your retirement investment.




Your 401K contributions do not have to be thrown away in a stock market fund... you have a wide variety of investment options. I chose to take the low risk ones not tied to the stock market...No shit Sherlock, and at your age I'd expect you to stop taking growth options (unless it comes in a little blue pill).

I still can't believe you don't know the difference...

Hint: There is no difference.

[Parkbandit]

Like I said, you've had this pattern of behavior for some time now, so you're getting it back. If it makes you feel better to (hypocritically) call people hypocrites; well, whatever makes you feel good old man.


:rofl:

Whatever you think, child.



Pointing out that the price will change over time.

Thanks, Captain Obvious!! You mean the DJIA changes over time??? WHAT!!?!?!

Nice try.. but as usual, fail.




Either. Since I was talking about 401k stock contributions (which are continual) and the Dow took a huge dive in prices that hadn't been seen in 5 years, it was a good time-period to add stocks to your retirement investment.


There is actually a clear cut answer... yet you couldn't come to terms with the correct answer because it would point out that your bad advice was actually bad advice. Shock there.

And no, you do NOT have to put your 401K into stock contributions. During the time period of 10/08 through 5/09, I contributed ABSOLUTELY ZERO money of my 401K to stocks. Zero.



No shit Sherlock, and at your age I'd expect you to stop taking growth options (unless it comes in a little blue pill).

You really do this for a living? I've yet to see any evidence of this claim. Sounds like some 12 year old is at a computer, pretending to be something he is not. It's a good thing you "own" "your" company... or else you would be fired.

Perhaps when you reach puberty, you can actually go out and get a real job.


Hint: There is no difference.

:rofl:

So what do you really do for a living?

[Archigeek]

I manage my own investments that are not tied up in 401k's, that is when I'm not wasting my time sifting through a Clove-Park Bandit brewhaha. Get a room fellas. No one else cares.

[Clove]

And no, you do NOT have to put your 401K into stock contributions.No shit Sherlock. Hence the opinion to add stocks to 401k's.
During the time period of 10/08 through 5/09, I contributed ABSOLUTELY ZERO money of my 401K to stocks. Zero.Boy, was that dumb, the DJIA hit a 12 year low in March of 2009. By the way, we can't all realize 100 year bonds.
So what do you really do for a living?It's right there in my profile dumbass.

[AnticorRifling]

You know he's not really that old right? We just like to call him old because he's a few years older than the rest of HoR.

[Clove]

You know he's not really that old right? We just like to call him old because he's a few years older than the rest of HoR.Yeah AR, thanks.

[AnticorRifling]

Just making sure because that seemed a focal point of your insults and I know you can do better. I'm here to make sure insults are at their max potential.

[Drisco]

Just making sure because that seemed a focal point of your insults and I know you can do better. I'm here to make sure insults are at their max potential.

Atleast someones reading the PB vs. Clove debacle. Can we just agree that Clove and PB are being handicapped children and all get along and sing songs and what have you.

oh and lawls.

[Parkbandit]

Atleast someones reading the PB vs. Clove debacle. Can we just agree that Clove and PB are being handicapped children and all get along and sing songs and what have you.

oh and lawls.

Feel free to ignore the posts, simpleton. Just pretend it's about sports, something mechanical or guy related.

[Ryvicke]

I think it's awesome when people just get together and talk about investing like the words they type are going to make anyone money. The last place I worked at before the crash spent about 50k a month in terminal fees and at least 10x that in analysis docs and everyone working there douchebagged at HBS for their MBA and they all got vajazzled the minute shit went down.

PB announcing he's done with the "stock market" is hilarious. DGURNK.

[Parkbandit]

PB announcing he's done with the "stock market" is hilarious. DGURNK.

I don't get it. Inside joke?

Feel free to explain.. but given your history of stupid posts and not having any idea what you are talking about.. I'll just assume this is just another example.

[Drisco]

Feel free to ignore the posts, simpleton. Just pretend it's about sports, something mechanical or guy related.

Ignorant and a idiot. You post around here in such a demeaning manner but really, we all see right through your facade.

You are stupid as hell and it's okay. You are a pretty uninteresting poster that adds nothing of value to these boards. 25 thousand posts of nothing.

[Parkbandit]

Ignorant and a idiot.

:rofl:

Irony at it's finest...



You post around here in such a demeaning manner but really, we all see right through your facade.

You are stupid as hell and it's okay. We really don't care man, it's fine.

You seem to care about it enough to post twice about it.

[AnticorRifling]

This thread has vagazzle in it which is awesome given the topic at hand. I love the PC.

[Drisco]

:rofl:

Irony at it's finest...



You seem to care about it enough to post twice about it.

That's not irony. You are ignorant of your little gay joke and just an idiot in general. Well we all only post at you because we hope one of these days you will get that you spew garbage we don't care about. A more intelligent IW, but and IW none the less.

[Bobmuhthol]

GOLD STOCKS ARE AT IT AGAIN TODAY YYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[Ryvicke]

I don't get it. Inside joke?

Feel free to explain.. but given your history of stupid posts and not having any idea what you are talking about.. I'll just assume this is just another example.

Sure guy--no inside joke. DGURNK is just the noise I make when I try to imagine you having the expertise or education to advise the actions of others in regards to "the stock market." (I'm putting it in quotes cause I find it cutely naive that you used a term that encompasses thousands of disparate and contrary types of investments). But it's only half personal: I don't think you're properly informed in other areas because your sources of information are tainted; however, I also just don't trust anyone claims knowledge of "the stock market" with as much certainty as you are.

BUT--I do think it will be fun to check back in a year and see how your advice bears out! That's always the best part, and if I'm wrong I'll give you full use of DGURNK.

[Parkbandit]

That's not irony. You are ignorant of your little gay joke and just an idiot in general. Well we all only post at you because we hope one of these days you will get that you spew garbage we don't care about. A more intelligent IW, but and IW none the less.

Hilarious.

For someone who claims he doesn't care.. you sure seem to care a lot.

Maybe you were confused when I said "Just pretend it's about sports, something mechanical or guy related.".. I meant guy related.. not guy related.

Sorry :(

[Drisco]

Hilarious.

For someone who claims he doesn't care.. you sure seem to care a lot.

Maybe you were confused when I said "Just pretend it's about sports, something mechanical or guy related.".. I meant guy related.. not guy related.

Sorry :(

Oh lawd. You seem to bring this up as an end all be all. OH JAYSUS he posted in response so he must care!!

For god sakes the irony of your posts in response to me and clove. Do you slam your head against the keyboard and hope the shit you say makes sense? Jesus you must be in love with Clove and think highly of him if you are posting in reply to what he says.

Or

You don't and you post because you are on a message board?!

[Parkbandit]

Sure guy--no inside joke. DGURNK is just the noise I make when I try to imagine you having the expertise or education to advise the actions of others in regards to "the stock market." (I'm putting it in quotes cause I find it cutely naive that you used a term that encompasses thousands of disparate and contrary types of investments). But it's only half personal: I don't think you're properly informed in other areas because your sources of information are tainted; however, I also just don't trust anyone claims knowledge of "the stock market" with as much certainty as you are.

BUT--I do think it will be fun to check back in a year and see how your advice bears out! That's always the best part, and if I'm wrong I'll give you full use of DGURNK.

I've never claimed to having expertise or education to advise the actions of others.... that was Clove. I've simply stated what I have done and what I am going to do.. and so far, it's worked out well for me.

And I think you are a pretty confused little guy.. since I've never, ever stated that I am "done" with the stock market. I simply said that as of yesterday, I pulled all of my stock investments out of stocks and put them into something I believe is more secure. I would never state that I am out of the stock market, since most of my wealth can be attributed directly to it.

So.. still waiting for the "hilarious" part. Looks like another example of you not knowing what you are talking about once again. :(

[Parkbandit]

Oh lawd. You seem to bring this up as an end all be all. OH JAYSUS he posted in response so he must care!!

For god sakes the irony of your posts in response to me and clove. Do you slam your head against the keyboard and hope the shit you say makes sense? Jesus you must be in love with Clove and think highly of him if you are posting in reply to what he says.

Or

You don't and you post because you are on a message board?!

:rofl:

You really seem to care.

http://healium.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/obamam-lol-y-u-mad-tho.jpg

[Drisco]

:rofl:

You really seem to care.

http://healium.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/obamam-lol-y-u-mad-tho.jpg


Everyone. Prime example of classic PB. He'll be starting his Deflection 101 Class shortly after this thread has died.

[Ryvicke]

I've never claimed to having expertise or education to advise the actions of others.... that was Clove. I've simply stated what I have done and what I am going to do.. and so far, it's worked out well for me.

And I think you are a pretty confused little guy.. since I've never, ever stated that I am "done" with the stock market. I simply said that as of yesterday, I pulled all of my stock investments out of stocks and put them into something I believe is more secure. I would never state that I am out of the stock market, since most of my wealth can be attributed directly to it.

So.. still waiting for the "hilarious" part. Looks like another example of you not knowing what you are talking about once again. :(

How detailicious!

See I was confused cause you just posted this:


I would never state that I am out of the stock market, since most of my wealth can be attributed directly to it.

But this thread started with you posting this:


Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand, I'm out. Maybe a little early but better safe than sorry.

And then just posted a bunch of garbage about how wrong Clove is about everything he ever said in his life.

Also at one point you spelled 'cue' wrong. It was qute. But now I'm just being a bitch.

[g++]

See I was confused cause you just posted this:
Originally Posted by Parkbandit http://forum.gsplayers.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?p=1161500#post1161500)
I would never state that I am out of the stock market, since most of my wealth can be attributed directly to it


But this thread started with you posting this:

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand, I'm out. Maybe a little early but better safe than sorry.



Really...I think everyone knows what someone means when they say their pulling out of the stock market. I mean if someone at a bar tells you that you dont immediately think "Oh well I guess Tom is never going to invest in anything ever again". Starting to remind me of Mabus.

[Cephalopod]

I wish I had pulled out sooner. I might have fewer kids.

[Ryvicke]

I have no argument with the content of his advice. If he wanted his posts to be seen as valuable he would be more articulate.

[Clove]

Hilarious.

For someone who claims he doesn't care.. you sure seem to care a lot.Hypocrite.


I've never claimed to having expertise or education to advise the actions of others.... that was Clove.Where?

[Parkbandit]

Everyone. Prime example of classic PB. He'll be starting his Deflection 101 Class shortly after this thread has died.

What exactly am I deflecting here? That you don't like it when Clove and I argue over the Internet? I get it. Like I said, just ignore it.

You're so angry at something.. you can't even think straight (but that's always been a problem, hasn't it)

[Parkbandit]

How detailicious!

See I was confused cause you just posted this:



But this thread started with you posting this:




You seem confused in most of your posts, so it's nothing new.



And then just posted a bunch of garbage about how wrong Clove is about everything he ever said in his life.

Hyperbole always makes things better, doesn't it?



Also at one point you spelled 'cue' wrong. It was qute. But now I'm just being a bitch.

And being a little bitch is about the only thing you have going for you at this point.

[Parkbandit]

I have no argument with the content of his advice. If he wanted his posts to be seen as valuable he would be more articulate.

So far, you have been the only individual that has come forth to claim that he was confused by my OP.

Perhaps it wasn't clear to you, but it seems clear enough to most readers here. I can't dumb everything down just for you.

[Keller]

I just read this entire thread. Not because it was interesting, but to test my own will power. In the same way some people run marathons to see if they've got the internal fortitude, I just read this thread.

Fuck. I'm exhausted and completely disappointed.

[NocturnalRob]

I'm exhausted and completely disappointed.
at least you know how your wife feels

[Kainen]

at least you know how your wife feels

I knew SOMEONE had to say this..

[Clove]

I knew SOMEONE had to say this..Why? His wife says it every night.

[Drisco]

Any of you guys use Marketsmith.com ? Thinking about grabbing a free trial and maybe a month subscription if it works out.

[Bobmuhthol]

I had never heard of it, but I don't recommend it because it falls into a large category of organizations taking advantage of people who want to pretend to understand what they're doing when they really don't. If you were a good investor, you'd be running a fund. Since you're not, find good investors, and give your money to those people.

[Back]

Any of you guys use Marketsmith.com ? Thinking about grabbing a free trial and maybe a month subscription if it works out.

My family has been a customer of Charles Schwab for many years. I am very satisfied with their service. Their website is very useful. Accessing your account is easy. You can also make trades if you are inclined. They have a good reputation. I would recommend Schwab before anything else if you are going to get into it.

[Bobmuhthol]

They're not the same thing. If you're looking for a custodian, I would recommend Fidelity anyway, but I also acknowledge that's not what's being asked here.

Let me just dissuade you right now by saying that, unless you have at least $25,000 in cash, you're making the wrong decision.

[Latrinsorm]

Vanguard has really shitty statements, pick anyone but them. If you don't think that's a good criterion you just don't understand the world of high finance.

[Drisco]

I had never heard of it, but I don't recommend it because it falls into a large category of organizations taking advantage of people who want to pretend to understand what they're doing when they really don't. If you were a good investor, you'd be running a fund. Since you're not, find good investors, and give your money to those people.


That's hilarious. Might actually be the worst advice I've heard.

And for clarity, I'm buying options specifically puts, not stocks.

[Paradii]

Vanguard has really shitty statements, pick anyone but them. If you don't think that's a good criterion you just don't understand the world of high finance.

I don't understand the world of high finance, nor do I need to until I actually have something more to invest. But Vanguard is making me some money from my Roth IRA. And yes, I know enough to know that no one is talking about iras.

Fuck ya'll, i'm poor.

[Bobmuhthol]

That's hilarious. Might actually be the worst advice I've heard.

And for clarity, I'm buying options specifically puts, not stocks.Okay, fuck off, enjoy losing your money. Come back when you're a finance grad student.

You are also fucking monumentally stupid if you are going into options trading as an individual with no experience, so your critique of my very real and very accurate advice is taken with all the consideration it deserves.

I interact with Nobel laureates and hedge fund managers daily, and I got here by knowing what the fuck I'm talking about.

[Latrinsorm]

I don't understand the world of high finance, nor do I need to until I actually have something more to invest. But Vanguard is making me some money from my Roth IRA. And yes, I know enough to know that no one is talking about iras.

Fuck ya'll, i'm poor.If you're willing to tolerate statement pages that are up to two millimeters wider than others, I say you are poor in moral fiber, sir.

[Paradii]

If you're willing to tolerate statement pages that are up to two millimeters wider than others, I say you are poor in moral fiber, sir.

Was that ever up for debate?

[Drisco]

Okay, fuck off, enjoy losing your money. Come back when you're a finance grad student.

You are also fucking monumentally stupid if you are going into options trading as an individual with no experience, so your critique of my very real and very accurate advice is taken with all the consideration it deserves.

I interact with Nobel laureates and hedge fund managers daily, and I got here by knowing what the fuck I'm talking about.

HA! So now you need to be a financial graduate, and run a fund to invest in the stock market to have any marginal success? What steep requirements. I wonder how many of these fund managers just loss a butt load of money in apple.

If you're so chummy with these Nobel Laureates ask how many of them got into the stock market in highschool or before their financial degrees. Better yet go pick up any market textbook and I bet you'll find a handful of names in their who traded stocks without a degree. I also bet half if not more of the stock market millionaire today traded before they were fund managers or had degrees.

Anyone with time who can follow the market daily and learn some technical analysis can trade and have success, in my opinion.

[Bobmuhthol]

A lot of funds overweight in Apple because it fits their investing style. You don't know this about me, but it's funny you mention it because I tell everyone I know not to buy those funds and personally do not invest in them. Unsurprisingly, my investments outperform them.

Almost any successful investor will tell you they either traded tiny amounts or paper traded for years. You aren't doing this. You also explicitly want to buy put options, and by the way, that makes you an idiot. Puts are overpriced because they are hedges. You make money by selling them. Stock options are also scarcely traded, so you're eating shit all day as a purchaser. And you don't need fucking technical analysis to realize that the market is just not in your favor here. But apparently finance is a place where opinions are welcomed, so that's mine. The difference is that I'm right.

You should also keep in mind that to trade options, you need to have lots of money or good credit. You're not a financial institution, so you meet neither criterion. Taking extremely levered positions as a total novice is the worst possible idea.

[Drisco]

A lot of funds overweight in Apple because it fits their investing style. You don't know this about me, but it's funny you mention it because I tell everyone I know not to buy those funds and personally do not invest in them. Unsurprisingly, my investments outperform them.

Almost any successful investor will tell you they either traded tiny amounts or paper traded for years. You aren't doing this. You also explicitly want to buy put options, and by the way, that makes you an idiot. Puts are overpriced because they are hedges. You make money by selling them. Stock options are also scarcely traded, so you're eating shit all day as a purchaser. And you don't need fucking technical analysis to realize that the market is just not in your favor here. But apparently finance is a place where opinions are welcomed, so that's mine. The difference is that I'm right.

You should also keep in mind that to trade options, you need to have lots of money or good credit. You're not a financial institution, so you meet neither criterion. Taking extremely levered positions as a total novice is the worst possible idea.


Maybe I was misleading but I think we are on a different page... I'm not writing options naked.

I'm buying option contracts, and then trading out. I' not even exercising the option. The risk is my initial investment and that's all.

[Bobmuhthol]

You have literally no idea what you're talking about.

Let's make my answer slightly more comprehensive. You will only see transactions very close to the money (nobody trades remotely deep OTM options on stocks, and why would you ever buy ITM American options?). So, fine, if you want to buy a MSFT contract, you're looking at potentially only a few dollars. But you're also not going to really make a lot of money from it, either, because your initial costs are going to include transaction fees. Since you don't have a lot of money, those fees represent a relatively large amount. You're taking long put positions, and this is equivalent to a very levered short sale position in the underlying equity. I have a feeling that if I said, "Do you want to short stocks on margin?" you would say no. But that's exactly what you're doing.

Do you know anything about stochastic calculus, option Greeks, binomial pricing, Monte Carlo, and so on? If the answer is no to any of these, please stop thinking you're an options trader.

[Drisco]

k

[Bobmuhthol]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4auzn4bK1bM

You might learn something. Which reminds me, on top of the things I previously mentioned, I guess I just assumed you already knew about the Black-Scholes formula. But are you aware of implied volatility, Poisson processes, and volatility smirks? Again, if you answered no to any, GTFO.

Your arrogance is absolutely incredible given your total lack of basic understanding here.

[Latrinsorm]

Was that ever up for debate?PC Mom Tisket likes you, because she is unfailingly sweet and good-natured that was good enough for me to give you the benefit of the doubt.

Now there is no doubt. (Don't speak.)

[Bobmuhthol]

Just a reminder to Drisco that individual security puts always have a negative theta, so have fun, bro. And enjoy that sweet, sweet gamma since all of your trades are going to be concentrated at the money. And fuck delta hedging, who needs it? Just give me purely speculative derivative positions, because that's how the pros do it!

[Tisket]

I'm not entirely certain but I think Bob was talking dirty.

[DoctorUnne]

I like how the original "I'm done with the market" posts were in late August of 2010, right before the S&P went on a 25% run over the next six months.

If you want some investing advice put whatever equities allocation you have into V and MA, ignore it for five years, and thank me then. They are the best businesses in the world. They are so good that they get regulated and litigated against for a living because people get butthurt at how profitable they are, but they plow right on through it. I gave the same advice a year ago in some other thread and the stocks are up 55% and 45% respectively vs. the S&P up 13%. If I had to guess I'd say the market is overbought and you should wait three months, but if you're investing for multiple years it's not a big deal.

Also whoever recommended FSAGX earlier, I'd be putting a lot of money in that now too. All of the central banks are printing ad infinitum and the miners have massively underperformed the commodity. If that corrects (which isn't guaranteed since they like to piss away profits on uneconomic projects) then you'll make even more money.

[Bobmuhthol]

Since I used to be in FSAGX in 2010, I'm guessing it was me. It was a shit fund for a long time after I sold it (I made in the 20-25% ballpark with it in 3-4 months). I'm not sure that I'd even pretend to recommend it today, except maybe for the fact that it's taken such a beating that it might actually improve eventually. That's a stretch, though, considering stocks are constantly going up; nobody wants to hold gold anymore.

[DoctorUnne]

I would argue the main reason that stocks are going up is because all of the world's central banks are printing money, which is inflating asset prices. That should increase long-term inflation expectations and be good for gold even though it's had a big decade-long run. I don't think the gold bull market is over. There are other reasons for stocks being up: the Eurozone looks stable for now, China is reaccelerating and we've got a nascent housing recovery, but I think all the QE is the biggest.

[Drakefang]

Not to derail the thread, but what do you think the rise in gas prices this spring is going to do with the economy and the stock market as a result?

[Bobmuhthol]

Long-term inflation expectations aren't going anywhere. The 30 year TIPS spread is like 2.7%, and it's been higher for a lot of the last three years. QE was announced like 4 months ago at this point. It can't really explain persistent growth, unless you think the new money created in the last few months is somehow more important than the $1.5 trillion in excess reserves beforehand.

Gas prices are gas prices. I'm the last person you want to talk to about the effect of gas prices, because as far as I'm concerned, there isn't one. Oil prices are more important, and they're hardly strongly correlated with gas prices.

[DoctorUnne]

I'm not only talking about the most recent round of QE and I'm not only talking about the US. Even the Germans finally relented to it.

Higher gas prices, along with the payroll tax increase, will negatively impact the US consumer's spending on other discretionary goods. It would harm other consumer-driven industries. I don't see them having a big impact on the overall stock market though. Stocks are up because everyone is bullish and there has been a lot of fund flows out of equities and into fixed income over the past few years which has been reversing. Everyone is bullish because recent global issues that have caused corrections in the past (China slowdown, Spain/Italy debt crises, US fiscal uncertainty) are perceived as having gone away. I think in general it's a good idea to buy fear and sell complacency, and there is a lot of complacency today. Not saying stocks won't be higher in a year or two but I think it's likely something new pops up (or something old resurfaces) that causes a correction soon.

[Bobmuhthol]

I'm very curious how Drisco's options investments are working out. VIX hasn't gone anywhere, so his theoretical trades that probably never happened are either flat or losing money on volatility. Everything but AAPL is up, so he's losing on moneyness. Obviously time happened and for some ridiculous reason he wants to be long puts, so he's getting killed by theta. Interest rates aren't moving, so no action there. I give the investment strategy two thumbs down, except it doesn't matter because there's no fucking way he's actually been trading options for the last two weeks.

I'd also like to remind the world, in case you're dumb enough to try buying insurance for a profit, that you can't buy insurance for a profit.

[Bobmuhthol]

And with two more weeks of information, not that it means anything, buying FSAGX is a very bad idea. Don't do it. It was cool in 2009 and 2010. It's been uncool since. Don't be uncool.

I like coming back to this thread and reading Drisco's posts. "My only risk is my initial investment, so nothing can go wrong!!"

[Latrinsorm]

I'm very curious how Drisco's options investments are working out. VIX hasn't gone anywhere, so his theoretical trades that probably never happened are either flat or losing money on volatility. Everything but AAPL is up, so he's losing on moneyness. Obviously time happened and for some ridiculous reason he wants to be long puts, so he's getting killed by theta. Interest rates aren't moving, so no action there. I give the investment strategy two thumbs down, except it doesn't matter because there's no fucking way he's actually been trading options for the last two weeks.

I'd also like to remind the world, in case you're dumb enough to try buying insurance for a profit, that you can't buy insurance for a profit.I bought insurance for Jesus and made sick bank. This joke brought to you by homophones.

[Bobmuhthol]

Hey, weird, I have neg rep that just says "douche" from 6:20 pm and Drisco was last on at 6:21 pm.

[Latrinsorm]

I have neg rep that says "It's as funny as AIDs."

Americans for Informed Democracies?

[Bobmuhthol]

I'm up 23.8% on a mutual fund I bought mid-November.

[DoctorUnne]

Buying FSAGX is a bad idea or buying gold is a bad idea? I don't think buying gold is a bad idea. It's had a bad two weeks and I wish I had bought it here vs. a few weeks ago but my investment horizon isn't two weeks. If I hadn't put such a large chunk of my PA in already I'd be adding.

Buying the miners may be a bad idea but they've underperformed the commodity so much that there could be added upside from that normalizing. If not, and there's a legit reason they should always undperperform then it's a bad idea. I guess we'll find out.

Congrats on your mutual fund investment.

[Bobmuhthol]

I know people hate to hear about my correct predictions of markets, but now that gold is at a two-year low I just want to remind everyone that I said not to invest in gold back in January.

[Parkbandit]

I know people hate to hear about my correct predictions of markets, but now that gold is at a two-year low I just want to remind everyone that I said not to invest in gold back in January.

Wait.. You told people not to buy gold when it was high?

Daaaamn.. you really ARE a genius!

[Bobmuhthol]

What happened to the stock market between the time you posted that you were pulling out and the end of the year? S&P 500 appreciated more than 12%.

What does "high" even mean for a commodity price?

And do you really think that people were not buying gold at every step as it appreciated? That's sort of why the price went up.

Every time gold hit a price that was higher than the previous high, according to you, no one should have invested in it. Bad idea to buy high! Except that the price fucking doubled. So take your shitheaded critique elsewhere.

[Parkbandit]

You come here spouting your expertise in the stock market.. and as an example you warned people to not buy gold selling at $1650 an ounce?

There are ways to illustrate your fantastic investment skills. Just start a Fantasy type investment game.. everyone starts off with $5000 of fake money and anyone who plays details out what investments they are making and any changes they make for a specific time period. At the end, the one who has the highest portfolio wins whatever the buy in is.

I think you will do great.. with all your fantasy stock experience with fake money.

[Bobmuhthol]

Gold isn't a stock.

Also, unless you're going to model everything correctly, that's a retarded suggestion. I can just lever up and sell out of the money puts all day, and I guarantee I'll win.

I invest real money in real stocks. I make real returns. And I was really correct when I said gold was a bad investment. Again, you would have said the same thing about gold at 1250/oz, according to your own admission that "buying high" is stupid. But then you would have missed out on a huge return. I was buying gold when it was at a high three years ago. I made a large return in a short time doing it.

[everan]

Gold is dropping like a rock, is this a buying opportunity? Or is it time to jump ship?

[Catts]

buy silver, not gold!...and actual coins/ bars

lol@bob with dat hindsight. No one gives a shit. I like how you're bragging about your returns on gold. if you were buying it when it was around $1200 then you're the dumbass because silver was way better then. Silver will always be better.

[everan]

I bought all my gold when it was under $400 an ounce. I'm with you, gold eagles, or other bullion.

[Bobmuhthol]

I like how you're bragging about your returns on gold. if you were buying it when it was around $1200 then you're the dumbass because silver was way better then.I don't know what the level of gold was, and I was buying mining companies. Please show me your trades between August and December 2010. I'll show you mine. I believe I will have the higher realized return.

Apparently I exited my position in November, not December:

8/10/10 BUY FSAGX $46.68
11/09/10 SELL FSAGX $56.51
Gain $9.83 (21.06%)

8/10/10 S&P500 $1,121.06
11/09/10 S&P500 $1,213.54
Gain $92.48 (8.25%)

Please help me understand the stock market I'm such a naive little boy who knows nothing.

[msconstrew]

I bought all my gold when it was under $400 an ounce. I'm with you, gold eagles, or other bullion.

You were definitely alive then. I, too, purchased gold below that price.

[Catts]

You were definitely alive then. I, too, purchased gold below that price.

yeah looked it up THANX

[everan]

Yes, it was back when GS3 cost real money to play.

[Bobmuhthol]

And, really, if you're going to adopt a "but of course gold was going to fall!" attitude, why didn't you take a short position in gold three months ago and make a fortune? Dickhead.

[Jarvan]

And, really, if you're going to adopt a "but of course gold was going to fall!" attitude, why didn't you take a short position in gold three months ago and make a fortune? Dickhead.

Why didn't you?

[Bobmuhthol]

Because I didn't take that stance. I believed gold was a bad investment. I was right. I didn't stay silent for months and then turn around mocking anyone who had an opinion that turned out to be true, claiming that it was such a simple thing and everyone knew this would happen.

I made my bets between January and now. And I made money doing it.

[crb]

I'm up 23.8% on a mutual fund I bought mid-November.

rofl @mutual fund



don't know what the level of gold was, and I was buying mining companies. Please show me your trades between August and December 2010. I'll show you mine. I believe I will have the higher realized return.

rofl @penis

[Bobmuhthol]

You think it's embarrassing to purchase mutual funds? Do you understand what a mutual fund is? Do you understand why what you're saying is retarded?

Multiple people are insinuating that either I don't know what I'm talking about or they're hands-down better at investing than I am. I've provided evidence at every stage of what I'm doing. The only validated statement made by anyone other than me was whoever suggested buying Visa and Mastercard. Everyone else has either said stupid shit like, "CLEARLY this was going to happen, so your prediction well in advance means nothing," or "You earned 25%? Who cares, anyone can do that, idiot!" But no one has beaten me yet.

[Dendum]

bought 5 Canadian maple 1 oz at 480 sold 4 at 945, just seemed like it was getting to be a bubble, I was surprised when it kept going higher and higher, that bubble will burst eventually, it has done so before despite all the "gold is rock solid" stuff you see on the informative commercials on fox news. They said the same thing about houses at one point, I imagine tulips are due for another run sometime soon.

[Catts]

i like silver because it's used more and more in tech (telecom/solar). gold is mostly hoarded in comparison. i know everytime they print another round of money (qe3/4) is a good time to buy...but yeah eventually there will be a huge crash, which is when I think silver will skyrocket well over gold

[Bobmuhthol]

i know everytime they print another round of money (qe3/4) is a good time to buyThen why was it an absolutely terrible time to buy after QE4?

[Catts]

generally more money = cheaper commodities. It was a great time to buy silver coins..hell it still is. I'm talking bullion tho, not etfs which I think are silly to buy

[Jarvan]

I don't sell my silver coins, never did buy gold coins. I like the look of silver better then gold. Besides, like Catts said, silver is used more then gold in tech. I have a few 1 gram gold bars. But that's for a completely different reason.

[Parkbandit]

Gold isn't a stock.

Also, unless you're going to model everything correctly, that's a retarded suggestion. I can just lever up and sell out of the money puts all day, and I guarantee I'll win.

I invest real money in real stocks. I make real returns. And I was really correct when I said gold was a bad investment. Again, you would have said the same thing about gold at 1250/oz, according to your own admission that "buying high" is stupid. But then you would have missed out on a huge return. I was buying gold when it was at a high three years ago. I made a large return in a short time doing it.

Model it anyway you want. There are sites you can use for it. I'll play! $20 entry fee, winner takes all!

Anyone can be an investment guru on the Internet.. when they make claims about what they invested in months ago.

[Bobmuhthol]

If you're not purchasing the metals to manufacture them, what does it matter what they're used for? Coal is used on a somewhat regular basis, you could say, and yet I wouldn't suggest it as an investment.

Why is buying silver bullion a smarter decision than buying a silver derivative?

[Bobmuhthol]

Model it anyway you want. There are sites you can use for it. I'll play! $20 entry fee, winner takes all!

Anyone can be an investment guru on the Internet.. when they make claims about what they invested in months ago.... the only way to prove that a prediction is correct is to watch the prediction unfold, so I don't know what the fuck you're talking about. I obviously bought my securities before today, and their prices today have earned me money. That's what investing is, in the event that you were confused. Not to out DoctorUnne, but at the same time that I said gold was a mistake, he was advocating it as a smart investment. Only one of us could be right, and it happened to be me.

I'm not going to make trades on some paper site unless there are a full set of financial investments available, and a sufficiently long horizon. Otherwise it's a pure gamble, and I never buy single stocks, so it would be stupid for me to pretend to be good at picking stocks. It's all luck otherwise.

[Catts]

I actually think coal's a great investment lol.

as for etfs, simply the fact that you can short it. I mean with "GLD" you're not buying gold, you're buying a share in a fund where the bank is the trustee, and if the bank fails you become a creditor of the bank. Even if they have the gold you'd still be getting pennies on the dollar.

I mean think bout it...the fact that you can short an ETF, then you can destroy the shares, which you have borrowed, so that those shares have to be recreated for the original owner to have his claim back. That alone makes the whole thing bizarre/insecure to me.

If you, supposedly, own gold with GLD and the bank that's running it borrows shares out of GLD, and then they loan them to somebody who then sells them into the market shorting....well now you've got two people owning the same "gold" lol

I like holding the coins. Or you can pay BRINKS like $20 a month to store you gold for you as well.

[crb]

You think it's embarrassing to purchase mutual funds? Do you understand what a mutual fund is? Do you understand why what you're saying is retarded?

Multiple people are insinuating that either I don't know what I'm talking about or they're hands-down better at investing than I am. I've provided evidence at every stage of what I'm doing. The only validated statement made by anyone other than me was whoever suggested buying Visa and Mastercard. Everyone else has either said stupid shit like, "CLEARLY this was going to happen, so your prediction well in advance means nothing," or "You earned 25%? Who cares, anyone can do that, idiot!" But no one has beaten me yet.

I find it ironic that someone bragging about his supposed investment prowess mentions a mutual fund. Mutual funds are for doctors, dentists, lawyers, and people who lack the knowledge or time to actively manage their own investments. You're paying a fee to have someone else make investing decisions for you. If you were savvy and you just loved the mutual fund performance you'd simply build your own basket of investments that copied their holdings, avoiding the fees (unless the amount you have to invest is too small for such a thing, which also goes to your supposed investment prowess). Specialized ETFs can have a purpose, but only suckers and the lazy (and those forced to by their 401k administrator etc) buy mutual funds.



or "You earned 25%? Who cares, anyone can do that, idiot!" But no one has beaten me yet.

You're like so excited for your small gain while the market is rising. If you bought an index fund March 9th 2009 you'd have a nice big ~100% gain, but it wouldn't be really brag worthy (except perhaps your timing, though lots of people called that bottom).

You want a good stock call? I bought GGP for around $1 back in late 08 while it teetered on the edge of bankruptcy. I recognized that the bankruptcy was caused by liquidity, not solvency. I loaded up. It now trades at $21, and has spun off 3 companies to shareholders on the climb to that level (putting the actual return even higher, around $30 probably). Don't believe me? Track down the former player of Starkly if he is still around, d10 on aim, I gave him the pick and he bought too (though chickened and sold at $3).

There, I win, my penis is bigger. Unless you can beat a 3000% return.

[Bobmuhthol]

If you were savvy and you just loved the mutual fund performance you'd simply build your own basket of investments that copied their holdings, avoiding the fees (unless the amount you have to invest is too small for such a thing, which also goes to your supposed investment prowess).Are you serious? You want me to actively manage a portfolio of 50 stocks at the same weight as the fund I want to invest in, because you think it costs less to track a portfolio than to simply purchase it? You're out of your fucking mind, but this is not news.

Here's a very simple argument for why what you're suggesting makes absolutely no sense. You claim that you are capable of tracking any fund I point to by simply making the same trades with no transaction costs, which is a rather thoughtless procedure, and requires no real skill beyond operating a computer. The obvious advantage is to not pay a management fee, let's call it 1.5%. I won't go into why this is impossible, but instead I'll make a proposition that is obviously in your favor. I want you to track Parnassus Small Cap Fund (PARSX). You can choose whatever amount to invest that you want. I don't care what it is, but it's in your best interest to invest as much as you can muster. At the end of 3 months, I will pay you $1,000 for every basis point that you outperform PARSX using only the stocks in the fund and only at the weights in the fund. All you have to do is trade at a lower cost than the fund and you could earn yourself a very easy $15,000. Good luck.


If you bought an index fund March 9th 2009 you'd have a nice big ~100% gain, but it wouldn't be really brag worthy (except perhaps your timing, though lots of people called that bottom).To have no market exposure prior to March 2009 and then buy an index fund afterward would, in fact, be impressive. I don't know of anyone who did that, because market timing doesn't work, and never has, and never will.


You want a good stock call? I bought GGP for around $1 back in late 08 while it teetered on the edge of bankruptcy. I recognized that the bankruptcy was caused by liquidity, not solvency. I loaded up. It now trades at $21, and has spun off 3 companies to shareholders on the climb to that level (putting the actual return even higher, around $30 probably). Don't believe me? Track down the former player of Starkly if he is still around, d10 on aim, I gave him the pick and he bought too (though chickened and sold at $3).

There, I win, my penis is bigger. Unless you can beat a 3000% return.So why haven't you purchased a private island yet, if you have 30 times your investment?

[Dendum]

If you're not purchasing the metals to manufacture them, what does it matter what they're used for? Coal is used on a somewhat regular basis, you could say, and yet I wouldn't suggest it as an investment.

Why is buying silver bullion a smarter decision than buying a silver derivative?

It matters based on what is affecting the market, Gold's primary value during the bubble period is as a precious metal and not so much for its uses, though it does have them, the rock bottom price is determined not by investors using it as a hedge against supposed monetary fluctuations but what its actual demand is for commercial use, gold is primarily used to make jewelry but platinum is primarily used for its actual industrial applications, whatever the precious metal market does the industrial market is still going to have a need, unless they can find non platinum methods, for the metal. Gold is seen as a safe haven and always sky rockets during economic down turns, while the other precious metals are worth more during economic boons. So yea historically speaking it does matter what it is used for.

[Catts]

I agree that mutual funds (just like 401k's! and ETF, see my last post (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?55181-Stock-market&p=1530332#post1530332)) are garbage...but there's nothing really impressive to me about capital gains, even if it's 3000% of your dollar. Depends what you did with the money though. (hypothetical "you", obv)

[Jarvan]

I find it ironic that someone bragging about his supposed investment prowess mentions a mutual fund. Mutual funds are for doctors, dentists, lawyers, and people who lack the knowledge or time to actively manage their own investments. You're paying a fee to have someone else make investing decisions for you. If you were savvy and you just loved the mutual fund performance you'd simply build your own basket of investments that copied their holdings, avoiding the fees (unless the amount you have to invest is too small for such a thing, which also goes to your supposed investment prowess). Specialized ETFs can have a purpose, but only suckers and the lazy (and those forced to by their 401k administrator etc) buy mutual funds.




You're like so excited for your small gain while the market is rising. If you bought an index fund March 9th 2009 you'd have a nice big ~100% gain, but it wouldn't be really brag worthy (except perhaps your timing, though lots of people called that bottom).

You want a good stock call? I bought GGP for around $1 back in late 08 while it teetered on the edge of bankruptcy. I recognized that the bankruptcy was caused by liquidity, not solvency. I loaded up. It now trades at $21, and has spun off 3 companies to shareholders on the climb to that level (putting the actual return even higher, around $30 probably). Don't believe me? Track down the former player of Starkly if he is still around, d10 on aim, I gave him the pick and he bought too (though chickened and sold at $3).

There, I win, my penis is bigger. Unless you can beat a 3000% return.

Whenever I think of big returns, I think of my friend who bought apple in 98 for like 6.50, then sold it for 30 or so in 2000. He felt he did great. He hates when I point out that it went well over 600.

[msconstrew]

Whenever I think of big returns, I think of my friend who bought apple in 98 for like 6.50, then sold it for 30 or so in 2000. He felt he did great. He hates when I point out that it went well over 600.

Well, he DID do great. Just because he could have stayed and made more doesn't mean that his gain was bad.

[crb]

Are you serious? You want me to actively manage a portfolio of 50 stocks at the same weight as the fund I want to invest in, because you think it costs less to track a portfolio than to simply purchase it? You're out of your fucking mind, but this is not news.

Exactly, that is what a pro would do, and it would be cheaper, unless your portfolio is so small the trades would be so small that trading costs would end up being too high a percentage of each trade. Which I'm guessing is your case.


So why haven't you purchased a private island yet, if you have 30 times your investment?

Visiting an island is one thing. Living on an island... eh... hard to get Amazon prime deliveries. I'd rather live in the mountains. So I'm building a 14,000 sq/ft home on top of one, though I only made around half a mil on the ggp trade, it's contributing to the building for sure, but it isn't funding the whole thing, luckily I'm not a one trick pony.

[crb]

Whenever I think of big returns, I think of my friend who bought apple in 98 for like 6.50, then sold it for 30 or so in 2000. He felt he did great. He hates when I point out that it went well over 600.

Amazon after the dotcom crash traded as low as $7. That would have been nice too.

[Warriorbird]

Whenever I think of big returns, I think of my friend who bought apple in 98 for like 6.50, then sold it for 30 or so in 2000. He felt he did great. He hates when I point out that it went well over 600.

I'm one of those people. I sold in 2001.

I'll fully admit to some idiotic calls though.

[Bobmuhthol]

Exactly, that is what a pro would do, and it would be cheaper, unless your portfolio is so small the trades would be so small that trading costs would end up being too high a percentage of each trade. Which I'm guessing is your case.Kindly refer back to my post. Let me know if you want to take me on.

[Jarvan]

Exactly, that is what a pro would do, and it would be cheaper, unless your portfolio is so small the trades would be so small that trading costs would end up being too high a percentage of each trade. Which I'm guessing is your case.



Visiting an island is one thing. Living on an island... eh... hard to get Amazon prime deliveries. I'd rather live in the mountains. So I'm building a 14,000 sq/ft home on top of one, though I only made around half a mil on the ggp trade, it's contributing to the building for sure, but it isn't funding the whole thing, luckily I'm not a one trick pony.

You forget CRB, Bob is the greatest at anything and everything he does, and no one is ever better them him, and certainly no one on these forums.

[Bobmuhthol]

Actually, that's crb's mantra. And really, Jarvan, is it a smart decision to keep making (repetitive, unchanging, ad nauseum) side comments about me in threads? Don't you remember what happened last time?

[Parkbandit]

... the only way to prove that a prediction is correct is to watch the prediction unfold, so I don't know what the fuck you're talking about. I obviously bought my securities before today, and their prices today have earned me money. That's what investing is, in the event that you were confused. Not to out DoctorUnne, but at the same time that I said gold was a mistake, he was advocating it as a smart investment. Only one of us could be right, and it happened to be me.

Not sure why it's hard for you to understand... So I'm going to dumb it down for you:

Billy: "I'm buying some shares of XYZ today because they are a good investment". 6 months later Billy says "I made mad money off that XYZ!"

Sally: "I made mad money off PDQ that I bought last year.. I'm a fucking genius!"

You are being a complete Sally.


I'm not going to make trades on some paper site unless there are a full set of financial investments available, and a sufficiently long horizon. Otherwise it's a pure gamble, and I never buy single stocks, so it would be stupid for me to pretend to be good at picking stocks. It's all luck otherwise.

I expect nothing less from Sally.

[Bobmuhthol]

I think what you're trying to say is that my investment decisions would be more credible if I posted them beforehand. I guess that would be true if you believe that price paths are affected by my doing so. If you don't, then it doesn't matter. I didn't lurk in the shadows until I finally made money once, and then announce it and disappear again.

I'm currently holding FBIOX, FSCRX, FSCHX, and IWM. Apparently it doesn't matter when I bought them or at what price, so let's reset the clock at 0 and pretend that I just bought them all today. Of course, I didn't make the decision to buy them today, I just made the decision not to sell them, and I've already made money on them. But now you can follow what happens to my portfolio.

[Parkbandit]

I'm one of those people. I sold in 2001.

I'll fully admit to some idiotic calls though.

I'm sure I started a thread about when I bought Apple and when I sold it.

I sold way early as well.. But at least I was a Billy.

[Parkbandit]

I think what you're trying to say is that my investment decisions would be more credible if I posted them beforehand. I guess that would be true if you believe that price paths are affected by my doing so. If you don't, then it doesn't matter. I didn't lurk in the shadows until I finally made money once, and then announce it and disappear again.

I'm currently holding FBIOX, FSCRX, FSCHX, and IWM. Apparently it doesn't matter when I bought them or at what price, so let's reset the clock at 0 and pretend that I just bought them all today. Of course, I didn't make the decision to buy them today, I just made the decision not to sell them, and I've already made money on them. But now you can follow what happens to my portfolio.

Oh Sally..

[crb]

Kindly refer back to my post. Let me know if you want to take me on.[/COLOR]

Take you on?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djV11Xbc914

I already dilvulged a trade I made better than anything you've done, and I didn't even want to but your chest thumping was just so hilarious. I'll have to content myself with being actually rich and successful in real life, and not worry about measuring penises on an Internet forum. If I ever get insecure about my penis I will be able to be reminded every day as I wake up in my ginormous house, right? I mean, who needs vindication from a forum if they're truly successful? You need a gold star? A pat on the back? Money is its own reward, extra kudos for accumulating large sums of it are unnecessary.

For the record though, my dad is bigger than your dad.



it would be stupid for me to pretend to be good at picking stocks

Something we can agree on at least.

[Bobmuhthol]

I didn't ask you for a trade better than mine. I said I will pay you $1,000 per basis point that you outperform Parnassus over 3 months.

[crb]

I didn't ask you for a trade better than mine. I said I will pay you $1,000 per basis point that you outperform Parnassus over 3 months.

Who is that, the person you pay a fee to in order to make investment decisions for you (aka, the mutual fund manager you're so proud of?).

If I wanted to take your juvenile bet I would take it, buy his fund, and then buy something else on the side, just one stock I was sure would outperform his basket. I could even cheat further and look at which stock within his basket has outperformed or might continue to outperform and buy that, essentially overweighting it. Because I will profess to be good at picking stocks, I'd probably win this bet, though by how many points it is anyone's guess. I'd then provide you with a sheet of paper that would be ridiculously easy to photoshop and you'd pay me, what? $100,000 if I beat by 100 points, which wouldn't be that impossible over three months. Heck, if I'm really good, could even do better than that.

I find this scenario so highly likely to happen that I promise to spend significant amounts of my time pursuing it. Please, do not leave your desk, stay by your phone for the next 10 hours as sometime in the next 10 hours I will call you to confirm the details.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

I've made mad money with SVU and HRB, but I'm not telling you my cost basis!

[Bobmuhthol]

If I wanted to take your juvenile bet I would take it, buy his fund, and then buy something else on the side, just one stock I was sure would outperform his basket. I could even cheat further and look at which stock within his basket has outperformed or might continue to outperform and buy that, essentially overweighting it. Because I will profess to be good at picking stocks, I'd probably win this bet, though by how many points it is anyone's guess. I'd then provide you with a sheet of paper that would be ridiculously easy to photoshop and you'd pay me, what? $100,000 if I beat by 100 points, which wouldn't be that impossible over three months. Heck, if I'm really good, could even do better than that.

I find this scenario so highly likely to happen that I promise to spend significant amounts of my time pursuing it. Please, do not leave your desk, stay by your phone for the next 10 hours as sometime in the next 10 hours I will call you to confirm the details.There are millions of investments that would outperform Parnassus. You said you can replicate the portfolio cheaper than they do it, which is exactly why I gave you the constraints that you have to hold an identical fraction of each and every stock in the fund. Your entire argument was that an individual can outperform any fund by just buying what's in it and not having to pay a management fee. Prove it.

[crb]

There are millions of investments that would outperform Parnassus. You said you can replicate the portfolio cheaper than they do it, which is exactly why I gave you the constraints that you have to hold an identical fraction of each and every stock in the fund. Your entire argument was that an individual can outperform any fund by just buying what's in it and not having to pay a management fee. Prove it.[/COLOR]

Uhh... asking me to prove a well known fact just because you're ignorant is a waste of my time. It is a fact that holding an identical portfolio where you pay 0 management fee will out perform the same portfolio where you're paying 1 or 2%. Over time the out performance will be significant because of the compounding of the interest. This is a well known fact, and a reason why professional or savvy investors do not buy mutual funds.

Try this article on the mistakes mutual fund investors make.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443768804578034573930134626.html

Pay special attention to #3

Here is a calculator to calculate just how much money you're losing:

http://www.buyupside.com/calculators/feesdec07.htm

Here is an interview with John Bogle, who doesn't know anything about the markets or mutual funds.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/retirement/interviews/bogle.html

In which he points out:



So if I do your average, what percentage of my net growth is going to fees in a 401(k) plan?

Well, it's awesome. Let me give you a little longer-term example. The example I use in my book is an individual who is 20 years old today starting to accumulate for retirement. That person has about 45 years to go before retirement -- 20 to 65 -- and then, if you believe the actuarial tables, another 20 years to go before death mercifully brings his or her life to a close. So that's 65 years of investing. If you invest $1,000 at the beginning of that time and earn 8 percent, that $1,000 will grow in that 65-year period to around $140,000.

Now, the financial system -- the mutual fund system in this case -- will take about two and a half percentage points out of that return, so you will have a gross return of 8 percent, a net return of 5.5 percent, and your $1,000 will grow to approximately $30,000. One hundred ten thousand dollars goes to the financial system and $30,000 to you, the investor. Think about that. That means the financial system put up zero percent of the capital and took zero percent of the risk and got almost 80 percent of the return, and you, the investor in this long time period, an investment lifetime, put up 100 percent of the capital, took 100 percent of the risk, and got only a little bit over 20 percent of the return. That is a financial system that is failing investors because of those costs of financial advice and brokerage, some hidden, some out in plain sight, that investors face today. So the system has to be fixed.

Editor's Note: For details on this example, see this table (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/retirement/etc/tyranny.html).
I've got to unscramble what you just said. You said that in the case of the $1,000 invested for 65 years, the financial system is taking 80 percent of the money. But most of us aren't doing that. In the first place, at 20 we're out spending it; we're not putting it away. But set that aside. We're really talking about people who are probably saving from 35 or 40 or 45 at best for retirement at 55, 60 or 65. and they are plunking the money away into 401(k)s. I'm just asking you, in that system, roughly what chunk of it are people getting back themselves out of their gains, and what chunk of that is going to go to the financial system for managing their money?

Well, in the long run, it's 80 percent to the financial system, 20 percent to you. In a given year, it's about 80 percent to you and 20 percent to the financial system, so if you look at 10 years or 15 years, you're probably talking about 60 percent to you and 40 percent to the financial system maybe over 20 years, something like that. But the longer the period, the greater the impact of that tyranny of compounding costs is.

Didn't any of your business classes cover compounding interest?

[Bobmuhthol]

You can't buy an index. You would have to buy all 500 funds and constantly rebalance to make that $400,000, and that's before transaction costs. If you think you can continuously trade, then I definitely want to make that bet with you that you can't beat Parnassus by replicating it.

I think it's marvelous that you say something as insane as "didn't you cover compounding interest." I have studied performance measurement and reporting for years. I invite you to pass CFA Institute exams. CFA, CIPM, your choice, but let's not get the idea that you know more about measurement than me until you do.

[crb]

I guess you're the best Bob, no one can beat you, I'm just going to have to content myself with being in the 0.1% and building a giant house on a mountain top.

[Buckwheet]

I guess you're the best Bob, no one can beat you, I'm just going to have to content myself with being in the 0.1% and building a giant house on a mountain top.

Pics or it didn't happen!

[Bobmuhthol]

I guess you're the best Bob, no one can beat you, I'm just going to have to content myself with being in the 0.1% and building a giant house on a mountain top.Yes, I imagine that would be the response of a person who was asked to defend totally incorrect claims.

[Catts]

mutual funds are a safe option for the uneducated. crb's example has a lot of hyperbolic math as well. Your best bet is options trading as there's much more money to be made consistently, regardless of the market, and there's a lot more control.

[Bobmuhthol]

Now you're just trolling.

[Catts]

comin from the guy who didn't understand why ETFs, 401ks and mutual funds are terribad?

[Bobmuhthol]

Yes, definitely trolling.

[Keller]

Over/under on when crb contracted for his house?

Given that he is the most consistent subtle bragger, it's got to be less than a week. No way he could have held it in longer than that.

Congrats on your new house, crb!

[Jarvan]

comin from the guy who didn't understand why ETFs, 401ks and mutual funds are terribad?

No, It's coming from the financial genius that admits he can't pick stocks, and instead pays someone else to do it for him.

In other words just Bob being better then everyone else at anything. I am aghast that he hasn't won the Nobel prize in economics yet.

[Bobmuhthol]

I love that. Jarvan thinks it's somehow contradictory that I understand financial markets but refuse to invest in individual stocks. Smart money doesn't play that game, Jarvan, so all you're doing is announcing to me that you have no idea what you're talking about here. Go look at the statistics on how profitable traders are. You're seriously fucking clueless about investment management.

[Jarvan]

I love that. Jarvan thinks it's somehow contradictory that I understand financial markets but refuse to invest in individual stocks. Smart money doesn't play that game, Jarvan, so all you're doing is announcing to me that you have no idea what you're talking about here. Go look at the statistics on how profitable traders are. You're seriously fucking clueless about investment management.

Actually, I am pretty clueless to be honest.

I do have one question though. Does Buffett invest in mutual funds, or does he buy stocks? I seem to recall that he buys stocks... More importantly though, unless the funds is a indexed to the market, wouldn't Someone have to pick stocks to put into the fund? Maybe you just are not good enough to pick winning stocks? Am I saying you should buy a single stock? No I don't think I said that. I'm saying that apparently even you admit that you are not good at picking winners yourself, but someone has to pick winners. Apparently, just not you.

[Bobmuhthol]

Buffett buys entire companies. He owns GEICO and a handful of others, but he does buy large positions in other companies. He's not a stock investor, so pretending that he is doesn't begin to make sense. He takes ownership positions, and he doesn't even pick "winning" companies. He picks good companies and takes all of their profits, and he doesn't sell them. If you are okay with an investment horizon in the decades, go be Warren Buffett, but that's irrelevant in a thread about the stock market because he is not active.

Yes, someone does pick stocks to put into the funds. I pick the thing that I want, I evaluate the manager, and I invest my money where I think it makes the most sense. Fund managers have entire teams of researchers. They know more about the companies that they invest in than I do. Again, it would be a huge mistake for me to try to pick stocks better than they can. But you seem to think that that's a weakness for me, and it's not. You claim that you're not suggesting I should buy a single stock, and I guess your defense is that I should buy a lot of stocks. But what you fail to recognize is buying a lot of stocks is just a bigger version of the single stock problem. I don't need to know anything about the individual companies that I own to do what I do. I'm not a fundamental investor, and I don't try to be. IWM is the Russell 2000 ETF, so right there I'm exposed to a portfolio of 2,000 stocks, give or take tracking error. Why the fuck would I do that on my own instead of buying the product from a company that specializes in only doing that?

[crb]

Over/under on when crb contracted for his house?

Given that he is the most consistent subtle bragger, it's got to be less than a week. No way he could have held it in longer than that.

Congrats on your new house, crb!

I really don't. If we have an argument about what an appropriate tax rate is for the 1%, I feel it would be disingenuous of me not to disclose that I'm potentially biased. You can call that bragging if you want, I'd call it trying to have an honest argument. I also sometimes, not so subtly troll you specifically Keller about it, because for whatever reason, it seems to rub you that way, but that is just me trolling you.

I'm not buying this house though, I'm building it, have been planning it for years, it has been a life long dream. Right now I'm up to my ears in architectural drawings and we should break ground a year from now. Thanks for your interest.

[crb]

I love that. Jarvan thinks it's somehow contradictory that I understand financial markets but refuse to invest in individual stocks. Smart money doesn't play that game, Jarvan, so all you're doing is announcing to me that you have no idea what you're talking about here. Go look at the statistics on how profitable traders are. You're seriously fucking clueless about investment management.

Would that be like going and looking up the statistics at how many mutual fund managers beat an index fund over the long haul?

We get it though, everyone else is always fucking clueless. You're essentially this guy:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEaKX9YYHiQ

[Bobmuhthol]

Would that be like going and looking up the statistics at how many mutual fund managers beat an index fund over the long haul?Oh, I'm sorry, did I make you believe that I am running a perpetual mutual fund? If I gave you that totally fucking moronic impression, I apologize, because that's not true at all.

[Latrinsorm]

We get it though, everyone else is always fucking clueless.I guess Keller isn't the only one you troll.

[Keller]

I really don't. If we have an argument about what an appropriate tax rate is for the 1%, I feel it would be disingenuous of me not to disclose that I'm potentially biased. You can call that bragging if you want, I'd call it trying to have an honest argument. I also sometimes, not so subtly troll you specifically Keller about it, because for whatever reason, it seems to rub you that way, but that is just me trolling you.

I'm not buying this house though, I'm building it, have been planning it for years, it has been a life long dream. Right now I'm up to my ears in architectural drawings and we should break ground a year from now. Thanks for your interest.

You're a bad liar.

[Tgo01]

I'm not buying this house though, I'm building it, have been planning it for years, it has been a life long dream. Right now I'm up to my ears in architectural drawings and we should break ground a year from now.

Didn't know you were in construction crb, how long is it going to take you to build this house?

[Tisket]

You're a bad liar.

Why do you think so? I mean, he can be an abrasive asshole but even abrasive assholes can have money.

[Jarvan]

Why do you think so? I mean, he can be an abrasive asshole but even abrasive assholes can have money.

Yeah, just look at Hollywood.

[Tisket]

lol I should have said "abrasive assholes are more likely to have money"

[Warriorbird]

Why do you think so? I mean, he can be an abrasive asshole but even abrasive assholes can have money.

I think he's done all right for himself. I also think he thinks he knows everything about everything now while being completely blind to any possible hint of wrong or bias.

[Tisket]

I think he's done all right for himself. I also think he thinks he knows everything about everything now while being completely blind to any possible hint of wrong or bias.

I probably should clarify that I don't believe he is wrong as often as you or others might. This in no way negates my belief that he is an abrasive asshole.

[Warriorbird]

I probably should clarify that I don't believe he is wrong as often as you or others might. This in no way negates my belief that he is an abrasive asshole.

I think he's less off base on investing than some folks might think. He's also run a decent business. He hasn't lost his shirt yet and many people have. I also think he knows a fair bit about the lives of both sorcerers and medical professionals. Outside those categories? I'm not sure he has much understanding of anything. Abrasive assholes are usually short on awareness of others.

[crb]

Didn't know you were in construction crb, how long is it going to take you to build this house?

I'm not in construction, when I say I'm building it, I mean I'm paying someone to build it for me. I'm hoping it takes a year, or a little over. Need it move-in ready august of 2015 when we move.

[Category Mistake]

Out of curiosity, what does it take to get into the top 1% of American wealth these days? An income of around $350,000 a year or wealth exceeding ten million dollars?

[crb]

I probably should clarify that I don't believe he is wrong as often as you or others might. This in no way negates my belief that he is an abrasive asshole.

I'll admit to being an abrasive asshole, I know my qualities, and tact, empathy, interpersonal office relations, these are not my strengths.

[crb]

Out of curiosity, what does it take to get into the top 1% of American wealth these days? An income of around $350,000 a year or wealth exceeding ten million dollars?

For annual income the 1% threshold is actually right around 350k, good guess. I have no idea what the total wealth bar would be.

[Allereli]

I'm not in construction, when I say I'm building it, I mean I'm paying someone to build it for me. I'm hoping it takes a year, or a little over. Need it move-in ready august of 2015 when we move.

my dad just moved into the house he had built last month. if you're still in the planning stage, good luck on that move in date, and I hope you live in a place where the permit and inspection offices move very fast. He contracted architects in 2009/2010

[Keller]

Why do you think so? I mean, he can be an abrasive asshole but even abrasive assholes can have money.

I meant his subtle brags being an attempt to troll me.

That was a bold-faced lie.

[Dendum]

For annual income the 1% threshold is actually right around 350k, good guess. I have no idea what the total wealth bar would be.

The top one percent of income make about 21.3 of the income, but the top 1% in wealth have about 35.6 of the net wealth, that is a big difference, income isn't really that important at that level. As an extreme example Bill Gates could be at the bottom of the bottom of income and still be at the top of net worth due to his assets, or as Citizen Kane put it : Screw you I don't care if I lost a million dollars (paraphrased)

Who the is in the top 1% is hard to gauge, these people have good tax lawyers probably, but you can assume if you have 10 million you are in it.

[Catts]

Yes, definitely trolling.
I responded to you (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?55181-Stock-market&p=1530332#post1530332)and your rebuttal is that I'm trolling, I see. i feel like you just like to argue tho

[DoctorUnne]

Not to out DoctorUnne, but at the same time that I said gold was a mistake, he was advocating it as a smart investment. Only one of us could be right, and it happened to be me.

Can't argue with that. I made a bad call. I should stick to what I do for a living and pick stocks like Visa and Mastercard (which are both still good buys here by the way!). Although I do still hold my gold position because my investment thesis - that all of the global money printing will eventually lead to inflation - hasn't changed.

[Bobmuhthol]

I responded to you (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?55181-Stock-market&p=1530332#post1530332)and your rebuttal is that I'm trolling, I see. i feel like you just like to argue thoFirst, you think banks run ETFs, so I'm questioning your knowledge of securities. Second, you think that the value of a gold derivative is somehow different from the value of gold, so I'm questioning your knowledge of securities. I don't understand what "you can destroy the shares" means, because you can't "destroy the shares," so I'm questioning your knowledge of securities.

[crb]

my dad just moved into the house he had built last month. if you're still in the planning stage, good luck on that move in date, and I hope you live in a place where the permit and inspection offices move very fast. He contracted architects in 2009/2010

oh I started with the architects about 18 months ago, I think we're on target still.

[crb]

I meant his subtle brags being an attempt to troll me.

That was a bold-faced lie.

You mean like in the past when arguing with you and I say I'm going to go dive into my vault of gold coins... you don't think I was trolling you?

[Keller]

You mean like in the past when arguing with you and I say I'm going to go dive into my vault of gold coins... you don't think I was trolling you?

Not in the slightest.

I do think you may have been engaging in a little self-deprecating humor, after having been called out for talking about how the poor were fucked by inflation while the rich would be fine because "our vaults of gold coins appreciate in value."

You seriously cannot talk about tax policy without reminding people how much money you make. I find it to be pretty funny. So, if you're really trying to troll me (you're not), then you're doing a pretty bad job since I'm just laughing at your desire for attention and/or validation.

[Stretch]

It's been a few years since this one has been dusted off...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8OxKx6zKkQ

[Latrinsorm]

I'm not in construction, when I say I'm building it, I mean I'm paying someone to build it for me. I'm hoping it takes a year, or a little over. Need it move-in ready august of 2015 when we move.In other words... you didn't build that.

[crb]

Nope, just paying for it.

[Catts]

First, you think banks run ETFs, so I'm questioning your knowledge of securities. Second, you think that the value of a gold derivative is somehow different from the value of gold, so I'm questioning your knowledge of securities. I don't understand what "you can destroy the shares" means, because you can't "destroy the shares," so I'm questioning your knowledge of securities.

wow lol. If you think mutual funds are good it's no wonder you don't know short selling nomenclature. and i said the bank is the trustee. What's the logic behind taking the most private, easiest to obtain and safest asset that you have and placing it at the mercy of banks who caused this market in the first place.

If you've actually traded ETFs then no doubt you've read the clauses on the slv prospectus, so you obv saw where they mention that in "certain markets" , the price of their shares can diverge from the price of physical silver/gold and fall. So if their silver/gold is held on the exchanges that set the SPOT price, it doesn't make sense that it can diverge from the price (of physical gold/silver) right?...which is why you are no doubt confused, but it does...and it critical markets that is huge.

the housing bubble's a good example of people putting their faith in promises.

[Bobmuhthol]

Yeah, it's no wonder that I don't know nomenclature that doesn't exist or make sense. I don't know who you hang out with, but nobody I've talked to has ever used that phrase, and I've had many conversations about short selling (;)).

And no, if I've traded ETFs I've no doubt not read any prospectus, because why the hell do I need to read the prospectus of an ETF ever? Is this like when people flipped out because the iTunes EULA included a clause about not using iTunes to develop nuclear weapons? And I'm not really confused, I understand that a gold ETF has the capacity to trade at a divergent price from spot gold, but that's a very nice arbitrage if you can find it.

[Jarvan]

Yeah, it's no wonder that I don't know nomenclature that doesn't exist or make sense. I don't know who you hang out with, but nobody I've talked to has ever used that phrase, and I've had many conversations about short selling (;)).

And no, if I've traded ETFs I've no doubt not read any prospectus, because why the hell do I need to read the prospectus of an ETF ever? Is this like when people flipped out because the iTunes EULA included a clause about not using iTunes to develop nuclear weapons? And I'm not really confused, I understand that a gold ETF has the capacity to trade at a divergent price from spot gold, but that's a very nice arbitrage if you can find it.

So you have had conversations about something, therefore you are an expert? Have you ever done short selling Bob? I've had many conversations about crime scene investigations, I guess I am a qualified CSI.

[Bobmuhthol]

Do I personally sell short? No, I have no reason to. Do I understand completely what it is? Yes, of course I do. I don't usually like to use the label expert, but this is something I would consider that I am an expert in, especially because it's such a simple thing. If you know what buying stock is, you know what shorting stock is, for the most part.

[Jarvan]

Do I personally sell short? No, I have no reason to. Do I understand completely what it is? Yes, of course I do. I don't usually like to use the label expert, but this is something I would consider that I am an expert in, especially because it's such a simple thing. If you know what buying stock is, you know what shorting stock is, for the most part.

And yet when you KNEW absolutely not to buy gold anymore (the only reason not to buy something like gold is that it is going to fall) you didn't sell short and make the million dollars you need to never have to work again and live off the returns from a mutual fund.

I looked up short selling, and I would agree it is fairly simple in basics. Of course you also have to understand all the rules and regulations, and understand the market itself, and know how to pick stocks to begin with. Something which you have already stated you are not good at, picking winners. Understanding the basics of how to throw a fastball doesn't mean you can be a major league pitcher, nor give tips to Cliff Lee.

Actually, when I think about it, I should be the greatest short seller in the world, as long as my broker shorted instead of buying the stocks I told them to. Since I also suck at picking winners. Hell, I invested a large part of my 401k into a housing stock in the summer of 2008.

[Bobmuhthol]

And yet when you KNEW absolutely not to buy bold anymore (the only reason not to buy something like gold is that it is going to fall) you didn't sell short and make the million dollars you need to never have to work again and live off the returns from a mutual fund.I never said I KNEW absolutely not to buy bold anymore. Theoretically, I could have sold gold futures, but I've explicitly stated multiple times that my recommendation was not to purchase gold. I never even pretended to be certain of future events, because I am not a fortuneteller. Even if gold went up 1% in the last three months, that's a pretty poor investment, and I'd still say I was right that gold was not a smart move when the S&P500 would have severely outperformed a 1% return. But if I sold a gold futures contract, I'd be out thousands of dollars. Why would I ever take that kind of risk with my personal wealth?

It's also not true that "the only reason not to buy is that it is going to fall." There are a million reasons not to buy. The only reason to buy is that it is going to rise. Not only that, but it must rise more than anything else you could have put your money into. Otherwise, you didn't make a very good choice. There is nothing special about gold, and in reality it's an extremely volatile asset. It should never, ever be used as an inflation hedge, because most of its fluctuation has nothing to do with inflation.


looked up short selling, and I would agree it is fairly simple in basics. Of course you also have to understand all the rules and regulations, and understand the market itself, and know how to pick stocks to begin with. Something which you have already stated you are not good at, picking winners. Understanding the basics of how to throw a fastball doesn't mean you can be a major league pitcher, nor give tips to Cliff Lee.You are again confusing skill with made up bullshit. If anyone tells you that they can pick stocks that will go up, they are lying to you, and you are a fucking moron for believing them. If you knew with complete certainty the direction of any single stock on any single day in history, you could make more money with that information in one day than you could investing rationally for a decade. If you knew whether stocks or bonds would outperform for the next month, and started with an investment of like $1,000 40 years ago, and put your money into the outperforming asset class every month, you would now have more money than exists in the world. Market timing is not a thing and it can't happen. Investment professionals do not even pick stocks for themselves. They research companies and recommend them to portfolio managers, who purchase dozens of stocks, not one. If they knew that one stock would go up the most, or even just that it would go up at all, there would be zero need for the entire investment management industry. The thing that you critique me for claiming that I cannot do is the same thing that every professional will tell you that they cannot do, because they, and I, are in fact experts in this field, and we understand markets.


Actually, when I think about it, I should be the greatest short seller in the world, as long as my broker shorted instead of buying the stocks I told them to. Since I also suck at picking winners.I'll paraphrase an oft-quoted saying in investing: the worst thing isn't being wrong all the time, it's being random. When you start seeing investing as picking a direction instead of picking only winners (look up long/short hedge funds), you don't care whether an idea will result in earning or losing a lot of money. You can simply take the opposite position if you're losing. It's not knowing that will kill you. So, as I've said multiple times, it's extremely arrogant and silly for someone like Parkbandit to march into the discussion and say, "now that gold prices have fallen dramatically, OBVIOUSLY this was going to happen, I could have told you that a long time ago!" I am being absolutely genuine when I tell you to never listen to anyone who makes statements like that.


Hell, I invested a large part of my 401k into a housing stock in the summer of 2008.You bought a stock in a retirement savings account, and I'm the idiot for understanding diversification?

[Jarvan]

[/COLOR]You bought a stock in a retirement savings account, and I'm the idiot for understanding diversification?

No, you are just an idiot. Ever have a 401k Bob? I doubt it, since you have never really worked. Generally you don't get to choose specific stocks, you can, but that's usually dumb to do with a 401k, since you normally still pay fees. Most 401ks give you numerous options to put your money into. Indexes to the S&P, 10/20/30 year mutual funds, housing funds.. etc etc.. I picked the housing fund because frankly, like most people, I didn't think it would go down, prices had seemingly always gone up. Now, of course I realize that was just plain stupid, at the time though, I didn't really think about it. In all honesty at the time I started it, which was 2007, I should have just left it in an interest bearing account until 2009. Course hindsight is 10/10 (20/20 isn't good enough)

I do still love how you continuously claim to be an expert in the field. I am sure every bank and investment firm in the country is beating on your door. I mean seriously, if you are an expert, even if you can't pick a stock, surely you would be making a 6 figure salary somewhere by now giving advice?

What's that? Your not? Shocking!

[Bobmuhthol]

You didn't say you picked a housing fund, you said you picked a housing stock. If I wanted to make the highest salary, don't you think I would finish my degree first? You got me! I'm in school! Besides, the money's in New York, and I'm not moving. So no, I am not going to start at $100k. Again, you got me, I must be some dumb motherfucker and not know anything about anything because I can't convince a company to pay me $100,000 my first day out of school. Fucking tool.

Even with a housing fund, I'm still not stupid enough to concentrate my portfolio in an industry. If only you had taken advice from the Parkbandit School of Predicting the Future, you would have realized never to buy high!!

I'm waiting for the day that someone who actually works in investments, and not the guy who just looked up what shorting is for the first time today, tells me that I'm wrong about anything I've said. But I'm not.

[Atlanteax]

So ... when does this get to the point where everyone agrees that the current 'discussion' is asinine and banal?

[DoctorUnne]

Haha, you said ass and anal

[crb]

I don't know, I'm finding this thread sort of awesome. It isn't every day you meet a walking talking caricature. I feel like I'm driving by a train crash, part of me feels bad, but most of me just wants to stare at the novelty of the disaster.

[Latrinsorm]

Course hindsight is 10/10 (20/20 isn't good enough)I hate to divert from this fascinating, rational, and respectful exchange of ideas, but the measurement is always 20/x because it refers to at how many feet (x) a person with normal vision would be to read what you could at 20 feet. For instance, my uncorrected vision is 20/800, so if I could read something at 20 feet someone with normal vision could read it over 2 football fields away.

And I hate to divert from my own tangent, but isn't "football field" a really stupid unit? One football field gives a sense, but where has anyone actually placed two football fields end to end? Now a baseball field, I've seen 4 baseball fields in corners, but never more than one contiguous football field.

[saturn101]

I participate in my company ESPP. The discount is only 5%, but I like free money. As of today, the stock is trading at a 52 week high. I don't have: a concern about the company failing; a tremendous amount of cash invested; any immediate need for the cash. The dividends earn me way more than the cash ever would in a savings account (I reinvest). Should I continue to hold, or should I sell?

[Bobmuhthol]

That depends largely on the stock. Being at a 52 week high means nothing. Especially if you have a long horizon and just collect dividends, you aren't giving any good reasons to sell. Of course, reinvesting dividends wouldn't make a whole lot of sense close to when you cash out since you're subjecting them to price risk.

[saturn101]

Okay, thanks :)

[Bobmuhthol]

Ever have a 401k Bob? I doubt it, since you have never really worked.Yes, in fact! My 401(k) is already very healthy.

My current positions in my IRA are up 25.87% since 3/8/2013, 9.95% since 3/8/2013, 4.52% since 3/8/2013, and 34.21% since 11/14/2012. I don't know shit about investing, though.