Research: DETECT Variance

[Danical]

Recently, I've been investigating DETECT Variance and have posted on the officials. It appears the point at which you start seeing "about" and no longer get exact reads on traps is Disarm Traps Skill / 3 + Perception Skill / 3 + Int Bonus. Starting from this "Disarm Rating" the variance beings to increase the higher the difficulty.

I've created a Lich Script named "refine" which detects a huge number of times until a few conditions are met and then exports the results into a text file "detect_variance_<charname>" in your Lich folder. This can take a very long time but because accuracy is paramount it has to be this way. It's best to find a trapped box and run it overnight or absorbing. The export is separated by >>|<< so you can easily table it on the PC.

Now, with that all said, I was hoping other rogues could get data points so I could figure this out quicker.

Example export of the txt file.

#trap_diff|#rating_diff|#spread|#confidence_level
about 354|158|30|0.991033618804664
about 404|208|40|0.687958524988211

[Danical]

Oh, rofl, I forgot to mention "refine.lic" is on the lich repository so anyone that wants to help out can give it a try.



;repo download refine

[BigWorm]

#trap_diff|#rating_diff|#spread|#confidence_level| trap_type
exactly ||||
about 10|-227|0|Infinity|plated
about 74|-163|0|Infinity|sphere
about 92|-145|0|Infinity|jaws
about 100|-137|0|Infinity|springs
about 109|-128|0|Infinity|glyph
about 112|-125|0|Infinity|sulfur
about 122|-115|0|Infinity|gas cloud
about 122|-115|0|Infinity|fire vial
about 122|-115|0|Infinity|jaws
about 127|-110|0|Infinity|fire vial
about 130|-107|0|Infinity|boomer
about 157|-80|0|Infinity|jaws
about 159|-78|0|Infinity|sphere
about 160|-77|0|Infinity|boomer
about 161|-76|0|Infinity|spores
about 165|-72|0|Infinity|scarab
about 189|-48|0|Infinity|acid vial
about 191|-46|0|Infinity|spores
about 204|-33|0|Infinity|scarab
about 205|-32|0|Infinity|sphere
about 205|-32|0|Infinity|rods
about 207|-30|0|Infinity|spores
about 208|-29|0|Infinity|rods
about 218|-19|0|Infinity|glyph
about 225|-12|0|Infinity|scarab
about 229|-8|0|Infinity|rods
about 232|-5|0|Infinity|scarab
about 234|-3|0|Infinity|plated
about 242|5|0|Infinity|scales
about 290|53|10|0.990302262702125|sphere
about 301|64|12|0.677337340987041|boomer
about 301|64|12|0.990064121483345|scarab
about 303|66|14|0.990616498071236|acid vial
about 311|74|14|0.990616498071236|plated
about 322|85|16|0.990407497947799|scarab
about 330|93|18|0.990243597287495|spores
about 334|97|20|0.990111635290341|acid vial
about 341|104|20|0.990111635290341|scarab
about 347|110|22|0.990003113133982|scarab
about 372|135|26|0.990226143402617|acid vial
about 382|145|28|0.99048664286685|scarab
about 384|147|30|0.990054260673318|scales
about 388|151|30|0.990054260673318|plated
about 400|163|32|0.990296900941468|scarab
about 405|168|34|0.990217980155585|scarab
about 411|174|34|0.990217980155585|scales
about 422|185|36|0.990147438654628|sulfur
about 423|186|38|0.990084010713287|sphere
about 436|199|40|0.902630117872467|scarab

[Drew]

I'm not a rogue so I don't know exactly what this is checking. Are you looking to see how accurate the detect verb is?

[BigWorm]

I'm not a rogue so I don't know exactly what this is checking. Are you looking to see how accurate the detect verb is?

Yes. After a certain threshold, your detect attempts have some variance, up to +/- 20 either way. So that -460 trap you detect could be as big as -480 or as small as -440. We are working on finding the relation between variance and difficulty - skill.

[Fallen]

Not a rogue, but research is always appreciated, D.

[BigWorm]

Not a rogue, but research is always appreciated, D.

You actually don't have to be a rogue to help with this. Hell, Dan is leading the research and he's bard. Anyone that can detect traps can help. I would actually be interested in seeing how results look from someone who has a good amount of perception but no disarming skill just to see if our working formula still applies. You can detect a box safely with zero chance of setting it off, so any capped ranger archers or the such that care to check it out?

[Danical]

#trap_diff|#rating_diff|#spread|#confidence_level| trap_type
exactly ||||
about 384|147|30|0.990054260673318|scales


Oh, I added trap_type now.

It seems that there's a hiccup with my old data wherein the trap determines some of the variance.

I'm also not sure if lighting makes a difference.

[SolitareConfinement]

im sure it does because of the ability to succeed your trap is increased with better light

[Danical]

im sure it does because of the ability to succeed your trap is increased with better light

I don't have LM sense so I have no idea. I think I've always been detecting in "bright" rooms but I'm really not sure if it has much to do with your Disarm Rating Threshold.

[BigWorm]

anyone else collecting values?