Colossal blunder? Or just some serious underestimating?

[Tsa`ah]

All of the partisan bravado aside, does anyone here honestly think Bush has a chance.

Personally I think there has been a great deal of self delusion going on. I don't think Bush has a chance at another 4. I think the general analysis of this being a close race is hype.

I don't think this because there is an overwhelming support for Kerry, more of a mutual disdain for Bush.

Why do I think this? I think this because the polls have focused on partisan sympathetic areas. I think this because across the board there are record turn outs. The media has focused on the people that habitually vote and have ignored the populace that normally wouldn't care. Now they care. If they care more for Bush or more for Kerry remains to be seen, but historically people don't turn out to support an incumbent like this, they turn out to serve eviction.

I think this is what's happening. Millions have been turning out since this morning to sign the Bush family's eviction notice.

The only wild card that has no chance of winning, but every chance to tipping the scale one way or the other is Nader. Had Nader been the Dem candidate, I don’t think the term “close” would have been in the media’s rhetoric.

[Edited on 11-3-2004 by Tsa`ah]

[Ravenstorm]

A heavy turnout probably hurts Bush, said Larry Sabato, who runs the University of Virginia's Center for Politics in Charlottesville, Virginia.

``If this turnout goes about 120 million, which it might, he's gone,'' Sabato said. ``That many new people are not showing up to say, `Good job, Mr. President.'''

I can but hope.

Raven

[Edited on 11-3-2004 by Ravenstorm]

[GSLeloo]

I've said this already, I voted for kerry but honestly I think Bush will win.

[CrystalTears]

Nope, I disagree.

I think the problem is that there are so many people against having Bush in office, and at the same time equally as many people afraid of letting Kerry win, that they feel the need to get their vote made with more determination.

It will be a close race, I'm almost certain of it.

[FinisWolf]

Projections of highest turnout ever...

Debates to debate debates...

Contradictions...

Flat out lies...

... yes, a close race..., and it looks like Donald Duck is coming up on the outside... Donald may well pull this off folks!

Finiswolf

[AnticorRifling]

In the words of the terminator: Fhour moor yearahs

[Soulpieced]

I'd vote for Jessie the Body or the Governator in a heartbeat.

[Scott]

I think Bush will lose, but he had my vote.... Pennsylvania is suppose to be a battle ground state, but I really don't think Bush has a chance here....

[Nakiro]

Its going to be very close.

[Nakiro]

Also, funny thing to add, but in a national election held by children grades K - 9, Bush won.

This election has successfully predicted who would win the presidency for the last 60 years.

[Chadj]

So? Washington lost to Green Bay. Every time Washington has lost on the game before the election, the current president has not carried over. That also has been going on for 60 some odd years.

[Tsa`ah]

Current CNN projections

Kerry 77 electoral votes, 1.5 million popular votes.
Bush 66 electoral votes, 2.0 million popular votes.

This is 3% reporting.

Now wouldn't that be some wicked Karma if Bush won the popular but lost the electoral.

[Edited on 11-3-2004 by Tsa`ah]

[CrystalTears]

OMG Chadj, enough with the football comparisons. Geez.

On a separate note, Tsa`ah is too sick in the head. He's not making sense anymore. Bush is going to win. He told me himself. He's delusional. :P

[Tsa`ah]

That was the broccoli talking, and you know what end the talking was coming from as well.

[Latrinsorm]

Originally posted by Tsa`ah
I think this because across the board there are record turn outs. The media has focused on the people that habitually vote and have ignored the populace that normally wouldn't care. Now they care. If they care more for Bush or more for Kerry remains to be seen, but historically people don't turn out to support an incumbent like this, they turn out to serve eviction. If you say "people are acting in an unusual manner", I don't think you're allowed to draw extrapolations from past behavior. I'll ask the Lord later (and yes, I realize the irony given who I'm talking to), but I'm pretty sure. :)

You can have your CNN. I'll listen to Jon Stewart (live for one hour, 10 EST, 7 pacific) myself. :smilegrin:

[Wezas]

Bush has 102 to Kerry's 77 now.

[Hulkein]

Pretty close. I was feeling nervous a few hours ago but it looks like it is going to be about as close as it gets.

[Drew]

In the last fifteen minutes ALL the news has turned Bush. It looks like for some unfathomable reason the exit polls were off, because as the precincts come in they are not matching up to what the exit polls said.



Looks like it will all come down to Ohio and Florida.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

I just think the majority of Bush supporters don't feel the need to shove it in everyone's face. I keep it to myself, and I think a lot of people who do support Bush do the same.

I will say downtown KC today had TONS of Kerry folks on streetcorners with signs supporting Kerry.

[Fallen]

All of the partisan bravado aside, does anyone here honestly think Bush has a chance. >>

Yes, yes I do.

At this point and time, it really looks like Bush is going to pull through. Let's just hope that this won't be dragged into court again.

- Arkans

[Parkbandit]

Originally posted by AnticorRifling
In the words of the terminator: Fhour moor yearahs

:lol:

My wife said we got a recorded call from him yesterday trying to "pump you up to vote for Bush".

I wish she had kept it on the recorder... :(

To keep this on topic.. yes, I do believe Bush has a chance :) I am a Monday Morning QB!!

Man, it would be great if the Governator could run. I'd vote for him in a heart beat.

- Arkans

[Tsa`ah]

I would actually be surprised if recounts weren't called for or legal action isn't taken.

Bad call on my part.

[Gan]

I think Bush will win.

as of 9:47am Monday:

Bush: 58,472,247 votes (254 EV)

Kerry 54,950,766 votes (252 EV)

3 states still tallying votes: Ohio, New Mexico, and Iowa.


Four More Years.

[Parkbandit]

It's a foregone conclusion now. The question now is if Kerry will finally be a stand up man and admit it.. accept the vote and help mend the country he had a hand in dividing. I'll have much more respect for him if he does.

[Wezas]

Originally posted by Ganalon
I think Bush will win.

as of 9:47am Monday:

Bush: 58,472,247 votes (254 EV)

Kerry 54,950,766 votes (252 EV)



As we learned from the last election - Popular vote means absolutely "shit".

It will come down to Ohio (as the other two states don't have many electoral votes). Where Bush does have about a 135k vote lead.

[Tsa`ah]

Despite the cheers from the Bush camp, it's not over.

Provisional and absentee ballots still remain a factor.
Re-counts can still be ordered.
Judicial intervention, should legal action ensue, is still a possibility.

We have projections, not declarations.

[Parkbandit]

Originally posted by Tsa`ah
Despite the cheers from the Bush camp, it's not over.

Provisional and absentee ballots still remain a factor.
Re-counts can still be ordered.
Judicial intervention, should legal action ensue, is still a possibility.

We have projections, not declarations.

The majority of all provisional ballots are traditionally not counted due to problems with the ballots or duplicate votes. This can amount to over 80% being disqualified. Even if every single vote was counted, he would have to take about 80% of these votes in order to pull out a win in Ohio. He didn't take his own liberal state with that margin.

It's over.

Kerry needs to take a page out of Betty Castor's book and conceed the election to the victor. End it now and help mend the divide.

[Parkbandit]

Ah.. news break says Kerry has conceeded the election today at 1:00PM.

Now to listen to his speech....

[SpunGirl]

For the sake of decency and playing like big kids, I think that the dems won't want to look like whiners whose first reaction is to litigate. It seems fairly obvious that the provisional votes aren't going to turn things for Kerry. There simply aren't enough of them to realistically hope that Kerry will take enough to topple Bush's lead.

On a side note, hooray to California for stem-cell research funding.

-K

[xtc]

The polls had this race at what 49% Bush 49% Kerry. To me it was always anyone’s game. I think Michael Moore, Bill Mayer, and all the other Hollywood types who exercised there 1st amendment rights brought the Repulse out in droves. Farmers will stand in lines for hours, students will go home.

[Parkbandit]

Originally posted by xtc
The polls had this race at what 49% Bush 49% Kerry. To me it was always anyone’s game. I think Michael Moore, Bill Mayer, and all the other Hollywood types who exercised there 1st amendment rights brought the Repulse out in droves. Farmers will stand in lines for hours, students will go home.

Exactly. I've never been so inspired to vote as I was this election. Feel free to use your pulpit to spew your hatred and lies.. I'll feel free to disagree with you and stand in line and prove that you are nothing more than a minority in this country.

I'm a farmer? Glad you told me this. I didn't have to wait hours in a line to vote, but you better believe I would have.

- Arkans

[DeV]

Originally posted by Parkbandit
I'll feel free to disagree with you and stand in line and prove that you are nothing more than a minority in this country. I'm completely missing your point. You should be celebrating that your candidate won instead of saying ridiculous things like that.

[Parkbandit]

Originally posted by DarkelfVold

Originally posted by Parkbandit
I'll feel free to disagree with you and stand in line and prove that you are nothing more than a minority in this country. I'm completely missing your point. You should be celebrating that your candidate won instead of saying ridiculous things like that.

Do you really need me to explain it to you? I'll be happy to if it's needed.

[DeV]

I'm just fine with missing it actually. I'm talking outside of politics as well if you can't already tell.