Hill's firewall?

[oldanforgotten]

Nationally, Obama has now opened a 6 point lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

Texas is now a statistical dead heat, although that presents a big advantage to Obama, as so far this election, he has repeatedly outperformed polls (suggesting that he is getting a significant number of people who are not part of poll samples (unregistered, of age voters), who register the day of and vote for him), and the fact that Texas also has an evening caucus, where he figures to do better.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html

Ohio has Clinton with a relatively safe but shrinking 8 point lead. Barring some unforeseen miracle, Clinton should safely win Ohio, but if the margin is only 5-7 points, that?s not going to make up much, if any, ground.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html

Now, Clinton does indeed have an argument, should she comfortably carry Texas and Ohio, that the delegates from Florida and Michigan should be counted, which would give her a significant boost. Or does she? Florida and Michigan, other than Arizona, represent the only states where Republican primaries had more voters than Democrats, and in Michigan, it was by a very large margin. Many voters within the states would prefer a new primary, and would actually feel MORE disenfranchised as voters to have only a partial sample counted, or a partial sample in which they did not have the full choice of who to vote for, creating further damage to the party. Now, another Primary is something Clinton would utterly refuse, as straw polls in both states are showing very close results (within 5-7 pts, although Hillary is still ahead in both), and that would significantly cut into the delegate lead she has in both should they be seated. Another interesting argument is the one quietly being used regarding the unpledged delegates in Michigan. 41% of the voters in Michigan specifically disliked Clinton as a candidate enough to vote unpledged, or NOT CLINTON. Are those to be considered Obama voters? Or free reign unpledged voters, some of whom may end up voting for Clinton?

Does she stay in the race if she loses Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island, but wins Ohio?
________
Diversion (http://www.yamaha-tech.com/wiki/Yamaha_Diversion)

[TheEschaton]

As a Hillary supporter, I'd rather see new primaries, rather than the old results being used.

As for losing Texas - if she loses it, she's done. I think if she wins Ohio and Texas, but loses VT and RI, she's still in.

[oldanforgotten]

As a Hillary supporter, I'd rather see new primaries, rather than the old results being used.

As for losing Texas - if she loses it, she's done. I think if she wins Ohio and Texas, but loses VT and RI, she's still in.


The argument against new primaries all relates to cost. Primaries are extremely expensive to hold. One option is for caucuses to be held, but in Hillary?s eyes (and to some extent, it has been shown as well in the results), caucuses favor Obama.

Either way the problem is simple. Obama and the majority of the people would prefer a new vote, but Hillary has expressly stated that she is opposed to any such option, she just wants the delegates seated as is.

Which brings us to the primary problem for the party. Party insiders have always assumed and thought Hillary would win from the outset, and only recently are in a position where they are unsure how things will play out. They are unable to explain why Obama is causing so many people to cross Independent and Republican lines to vote for him, and more importantly, are beginning to notice the realization of the exit polls nationwide.

A full 49% of Obama voters exit polled have expressed dislike towards Hillary, portending that they would not vote for her/vote for the opposition in a general election. 38% of Hillary?s voters have said the same. (No exit polling was done in Florida or Michigan). Put that number in perspective and 5.4 million out of 10.9 million Obama voters would either vote for McCain or not vote at all. (remember, the 10.9 million Obama voters does not include any numbers from the caucus states, where actual vote tallies are not reported, meaning his lead, in truth, is actually significantly higher), as compared to 3.75 million of Hillary?s 9.8 million voters would not consider a vote for Obama.

Further, a lot of the superdelegates right now are feeling the Obama effect, which is putting pressure on them to get behind him. With national polls now showing him significantly ahead (6 points), and the inferred belief that his core tends to be more zealous in their support for him, many superdelegates in office are getting the ?vote for him or you don?t get re-elected? calls. It also illustrates how the fact that most of the superdelegates have something personal to gain/lose in their superdelegate vote not only disenfranches the whole concept of superdelegate, but further illustrates why they shouldn?t exist.
________
SUZUKI DR650 HISTORY (http://www.suzuki-tech.com/wiki/Suzuki_DR650)

[oldanforgotten]

As a Hillary supporter, I'd rather see new primaries, rather than the old results being used.

As for losing Texas - if she loses it, she's done. I think if she wins Ohio and Texas, but loses VT and RI, she's still in.

And do you think she stays in even if the wins are very narrow (which won't result in much catchup, if any) on delegates?

Other than Pennsylvania and Kentucky, she won't be favored to win a single race down the stretch, and a few of the other smaller states, and one big one (north carolina) could be a blowout.
________
Box Vaporizer (http://boxvaporizers.com)

[Latrinsorm]

She needs to win 70% of the vote on Tuesday just to catch up in pledged delegates. I don't get why this race is still going.

[Arkans]

She needs to win 70% of the vote on Tuesday just to catch up in pledged delegates. I don't get why this race is still going.

I know it's not the actual election, but let's not forget how Dewey beat Truman.

- Arkans

[Gan]

I was speaking with a conservative republican this morning and she stated that she would rather vote for Hillary than Obama (if she had to vote Democrat) simply because she knew what she was getting into with Hillary. With Obama its mostly unknown.

My response was like - but we know that Hillary is the worst of all viable candidates - so any unkonwn has a decent chance of being better, so vote Obama! LOL

I mean come on, if you had to choose between the devil and an unknown - which would you choose?

:devil:

[oldanforgotten]

She needs to win 70% of the vote on Tuesday just to catch up in pledged delegates. I don't get why this race is still going.


Given how 60+ delegates in Texas are awarded from the evening Caucuses (advantage Obama), and that the delegates are proportionally allotted to areas which votes in 2004, (meaning San Antonio, Dallas, Houston have larger pledged delegate per voter possibilities than the Hispanic American areas in the south), it is almost a certainty that Obama will win more delegates in Texas than Hillary will. And a 10 point win in Ohio isn?t going to make up for that (it will result in a 10-20 delegate advantage in Ohio), which could easily be made up by Texas alone, let alone Vermont and Rhode Island, where he is considered a prohibitive favorite.

She needs him to pull a Howard Dean, or something catastrophic. At least for now, negative attacks are not working at all, as he is definitely coated in some sort of Teflon when it comes to her personal attacks on him. She on the other hand, is losing her own support over time to the momentum.

She bet the house on Super Tuesday, and when that didn?t end it, she was in trouble. He had a lot more money saved up than she did. He had offices in every state, while she couldn?t even fill a full delegate slate in Pennsylvania on time. She was forced to rush to put offices up in some states, but in many cases, it was already too late, and she was being outspent.

In essence, she was FORCED to use the firewall strategy in Ohio and Texas because by the time Super Tuesday was over, she was already way behind in organization, ad spending, and money in the coffer for the next several states. She had to risk a long losing streak being stopped by Ohio and Texas. However, even there, she was behind. Obama has 11 offices in Ohio, she has 4. her website is advocating volunteers to bring food to her staff. He already has a full time volunteer whose sole job it is to coordinate dozens of volunteers who are already pledging to cook the meals for his 60+ staffers until March 4.

She is also dogged by reports of spending a lot of her campaign money on $5,000 rooms at the Bellagio, 25,000 in meal tabs for one night for her staff in Nevada, and other spending that would not otherwise be considered prudent. While she now has pulled relatively even on money to spend in the election process, of the remaining states, she still lacks any staff in several of them.

But in the end, shouldn?t she at least be able to run an organized CAMPAIGN, if she wanted people to believe she?s ready to lead the whole COUNTRY on day 1?
________
WEEDMAPS (http://dispensaries.org/)

[CrystalTears]

I mean come on, if you had to choose between the devil and an unknown - which would you choose?

:devil:
People fear what they don't know or can't understand.

[oldanforgotten]

I was speaking with a conservative republican this morning and she stated that she would rather vote for Hillary than Obama (if she had to vote Democrat) simply because she knew what she was getting into with Hillary. With Obama its mostly unknown.

My response was like - but we know that Hillary is the worst of all viable candidates - so any unkonwn has a decent chance of being better, so vote Obama! LOL

I mean come on, if you had to choose between the devil and an unknown - which would you choose?

:devil:

Well, if anything, from the campaign alone, Obama is not a complete unknown.

He?s a very good public speaker.
His campaign is extremely organized from the grassroots level up, if anything the sheer level of organization and efficiency of the operation bodes well, at least to a degree.
He is astoundingly intelligent (which I would also put McCain as well), which is evidenced by him not requiring someone else to write his books.
He is liberal, and doesn?t hide it.
He, like McCain, both shoo away pork barrel projects and special interest money (both rank among the best in the Senate, Hillary among the worst).
He, like McCain, has spent the majority of his life in the middle and upper middle class.
He, like McCain, has never cashed any big personal checks from people for political favors, nor has he used his office to get loans for land, or plush attorney jobs at the Rose Law Firm where she was otherwise unqualified and not experienced enough to get a job at the time.
________
R5 (http://www.ford-wiki.com/wiki/Jaguar_R5)

[oldanforgotten]

People fear what they don't know or can't understand.


I think that is the primary problem Obama will face in the general election. It is not a valid argument to use on McCain that he?s part of the old Washington politics, because he isn?t. He can?t take McCain to record on special interests either, because much like the bullshit that has become of the NYT, that article holds no water. But McCain can talk of his bills as a uniter, where Obama can only talk about it. McCain can attack Obama as being an unknown as well. Right now, Obama has a nice Teflon coat, but it may not hold up in the general election.

I think where people make their underestimations are in the power of words. I think where McCain?s attacks and Hillary?s attacks are faltering are in accusing him of being all words, empty words, or as McCain put it ?an eloquent but empty call for change?. Ronald Reagan didn?t know his left nut from his right, let alone what positions were written for him by his staffers, and everyone knew it. But he was an inspiring speaker, he was very simple, likable, and rather than fight back when attacked, would repeatedly use the phrase to his opponent ?there you go again?, and then referring to something completely different, effectively deflecting the attack, making Mondale look like an asshole, and increasing his overall likability in two or three sentences.

Call it what you want, but the two most important qualities of any ?leader? are
a) the ability to inspire the people under them to do better
b) the ability to communicate what needs to be communicated effectively so that everyone understands expectations.

It is a bad misconception that there is a right and wrong answer to everything, especially regarding the economy. There are educated answers, and there are uneducated answers. Some provide higher levels of success than others. But if you have 100 people in the room, 80 people following the stupid way and 20 people who feel disenfranchised and doing nothing/being counterproductive still usually ends up with a better result than 50 people following the right way and 50 people doing nothing.
________
WEED VAPORIZERS (http://weedvaporizer.info/)

[Clove]

90 percent of the game is half mental.

[Clove]

So yeah. Party at Ilvane's!

[oldanforgotten]

Just wow. And funny at the same time. According to some unofficial reports from her weekly conference call, Hillary is (at least at the moment), planning to continue her candidacy even with a loss in Texas. She believes that she will be able to get the delegates from Florida and Michigan seated even without a re-vote, which will largely close the delegate gap between them, and she is redoubling her efforts with Superdelegates.

In other news, Greg Oden has announced he will be campaigning for Barack Obama in Oregon, Ohio, and Texas, in what should be yet another display of how much nobody cares about the NBA anymore.
________
VAPOR GENIE (http://vaporizer.org/reviews/vapor-genie)

[Parkbandit]

Just wow. And funny at the same time. According to some unofficial reports from her weekly conference call, Hillary is (at least at the moment), planning to continue her candidacy even with a loss in Texas. She believes that she will be able to get the delegates from Florida and Michigan seated even without a re-vote, which will largely close the delegate gap between them, and she is redoubling her efforts with Superdelegates.

In other news, Greg Oden has announced he will be campaigning for Barack Obama in Oregon, Ohio, and Texas, in what should be yet another display of how much nobody cares about the NBA anymore.

God, I hope she does. I hope she fights long and hard for the nomination. Good for her, trying to break that glass ceiling.

[oldanforgotten]

God, I hope she does. I hope she fights long and hard for the nomination. Good for her, trying to break that glass ceiling.

Glass Ceiling indeed.

Campaign Finance disclosures have also revealed a 1300 dollar expense for her campaign in January for her main office for donuts. Considering the fact that there are only 37 official staffers there, each working what is assumed to be a 6 day workweek, it translates into about a 6 dollars a day worth of donuts per staffer. I wish I could eat that many donuts and not gain a ton of weight.

All things said, I'm not voting for her under any circumstances because I believe her to be the closest thing to the antichrist to ever run for the office of President of the United States, not because she's a woman. I'd still have no problem telling anyone who refused to vote for her solely based on the fact that she's a woman, or anyone who voted for her because she's a woman that they are ignorant.
________
Mustang Svo (http://www.ford-wiki.com/wiki/Ford_Mustang_SVO)

[CrystalTears]

God, I hope she does. I hope she fights long and hard for the nomination. Good for her, trying to break that glass ceiling.
I hate you. Quit rallying for that bitch, please! I see what you're doing, so that McCain, your old bastard comrade, will have a really good chance, but some of us are iffy about him too. I don't WANT that cunt to have a chance! Goddamn.

[Gan]

:lol:

[Tsa`ah]

I honestly don't see her winning Ohio by any measure. Her only remaining demographic of support is the 60+ crowd. Her most recent on camera tantrum will likely do more harm than Obama's campaign mailings that detailed her short comings on healthcare and her support of NAFTA (providing she's still claiming Bill's experience as her own).

In Texas she has a chance. Not because of the demographics and not because of political support .... simply because of the rules in place for the caucus portion of voting. Simply put, if the polling judge isn't there on time the first person in becomes the judge. I'm willing to bet that Clinton supporters will set up tents the night before.

Ohio is beyond hope for her in any event. Combine that with her inability to run a campaign (well a campaign with projections past super Tuesday) and depleted funds (she can't go back to donors for more and she used everyone in her book) .... about the only thing left for her is super delegates, going after Obama's pledged delegates, and doing everything she can to have MI and FL delegates seated as is.

The reality of it all, outside of a party coup, is simply that FL and MI won't be seated unless the end tally is ridiculously close. In that unlikely event both states would be required to hold a fire-house caucus.

[oldanforgotten]

I honestly don't see her winning Ohio by any measure. Her only remaining demographic of support is the 60+ crowd. Her most recent on camera tantrum will likely do more harm than Obama's campaign mailings that detailed her short comings on healthcare and her support of NAFTA (providing she's still claiming Bill's experience as her own).

In Texas she has a chance. Not because of the demographics and not because of political support .... simply because of the rules in place for the caucus portion of voting. Simply put, if the polling judge isn't there on time the first person in becomes the judge. I'm willing to bet that Clinton supporters will set up tents the night before.

Ohio is beyond hope for her in any event. Combine that with her inability to run a campaign (well a campaign with projections past super Tuesday) and depleted funds (she can't go back to donors for more and she used everyone in her book) .... about the only thing left for her is super delegates, going after Obama's pledged delegates, and doing everything she can to have MI and FL delegates seated as is.

The reality of it all, outside of a party coup, is simply that FL and MI won't be seated unless the end tally is ridiculously close. In that unlikely event both states would be required to hold a fire-house caucus.


She's still winning Ohio by a safe amount there. And with delegates disproportionately aligned in Texas in way that favors him in the primaries, it was shown that he could lose the primary 55-45 and still take 8-10 more delegates. I think Texas is his. Ohio should get closer, but right now, it's still clearly on her side.
________
New mexico dispensary (http://newmexico.dispensaries.org/)

[CrystalTears]

On a lighter note, I think it was funny that the first political person that Jon Stewart takes a shot at during the Oscars was Hillary. And then Bush. And then mentions how rough Obama has it with his name.. that's it. We can see who he's voting for.

I've only had cable for about 4 days and I'm already sick of her face. I want to stab it.

[Tsa`ah]

She's still winning Ohio by a safe amount there. And with delegates disproportionately aligned in Texas in way that favors him in the primaries, it was shown that he could lose the primary 55-45 and still take 8-10 more delegates. I think Texas is his. Ohio should get closer, but right now, it's still clearly on her side.

I'm looking at the history of the polls since IA. Swap 10 points and you'll have a slight increase in accuracy.

[Tsa`ah]

I've only had cable for about 4 days and I'm already sick of her face. I want to stab it.

I honestly thought the voice and cackle would have done it.

[Gan]

I've only had cable for about 4 days and I'm already sick of her face. I want to stab it.

Finally got the dish to stabilize on the raft long enough to get a signal?

[oldanforgotten]

I'm looking at the history of the polls since IA. Swap 10 points and you'll have a slight increase in accuracy.


What do you mean?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html

Shows he has pulled ahead slightly in Texas

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html

She's got a solid but shrinking lead in Ohio.
________
Chevrolet Delray (http://www.chevy-wiki.com/wiki/Chevrolet_Delray)

[CrystalTears]

Finally got the dish to stabilize on the raft long enough to get a signal?
Raul gave me a wooden dinghy. Cocksmoker.

[Gan]

I'll laugh if Hillary pulls out Texas as a win.

[Gan]

Raul gave me a wooden dinghy. Cocksmoker.

haha..


Nails and a hammer too?


:rofl:

:love:

[Parkbandit]

Glass Ceiling indeed.

Campaign Finance disclosures have also revealed a 1300 dollar expense for her campaign in January for her main office for donuts. Considering the fact that there are only 37 official staffers there, each working what is assumed to be a 6 day workweek, it translates into about a 6 dollars a day worth of donuts per staffer. I wish I could eat that many donuts and not gain a ton of weight.

All things said, I'm not voting for her under any circumstances because I believe her to be the closest thing to the antichrist to ever run for the office of President of the United States, not because she's a woman. I'd still have no problem telling anyone who refused to vote for her solely based on the fact that she's a woman, or anyone who voted for her because she's a woman that they are ignorant.

Maybe it was The E's chocolate donut tree. Those things are VERY expensive.

[Parkbandit]

I hate you. Quit rallying for that bitch, please! I see what you're doing, so that McCain, your old bastard comrade, will have a really good chance, but some of us are iffy about him too. I don't WANT that cunt to have a chance! Goddamn.


I have no love for any candidate. I just want to see a Democratic fight is all :)

[Tsa`ah]

What do you mean?

Just what I stated. Since IA the polls have been pretty inaccurate ... Super Tuesday was a pretty good example of that.

Just using common sense (because I imagine people in OH are pretty sick of being polled by now), the deck is firmly stacked against her. Obama has union support (which Ohio has plenty of), he is effectively using NAFTA against her (Ohio has lost countless jobs to Canada and Mexico as a result of), and she has lost her cool in public venues (which also plays to Obama).

The only real chance Clinton has in OH is if she dominates the next debate. It's just unfortunate for her that people see the "debate" Hillary, and then the next day they see the "campaign" Hillary. The two faces of Clinton are pretty iconic of the whole Washington establishment, where as you only see one Obama.

[Gan]

HAHA

I just checked my home voice mail and found a recorded message from Hillary.

THE BEAST HAS MY NUMBER!!!!

:spaz:

[Drew2]

I may go out and vote for the first time in my life for Hillary just to watch Gan QQ.

[oldanforgotten]

Just what I stated. Since IA the polls have been pretty inaccurate ... Super Tuesday was a pretty good example of that.

Just using common sense (because I imagine people in OH are pretty sick of being polled by now), the deck is firmly stacked against her. Obama has union support (which Ohio has plenty of), he is effectively using NAFTA against her (Ohio has lost countless jobs to Canada and Mexico as a result of), and she has lost her cool in public venues (which also plays to Obama).

The only real chance Clinton has in OH is if she dominates the next debate. It's just unfortunate for her that people see the "debate" Hillary, and then the next day they see the "campaign" Hillary. The two faces of Clinton are pretty iconic of the whole Washington establishment, where as you only see one Obama.

Well, with the exception of the New Hampshire polls, he has been continuously outperforming poll numbers. Part of that is due to the fact that the calling list for polling doesn?t include all the people who just registered (many who are flocking towards him), have a low sample population of 18-39 year olds based on historical likelihood to vote (who are also supporting Obama over Hillary). The general polling population samples, as used by most (AP-Ipsos, Rasmussin, Gallup Tracking) favor her by demographics of the sample, but the actual results end up skewing towards him because the sample doesn?t see the fact that in some states, 18-39 turnout is nearly doubled. The exceptions to this rule are California, where she won a larger than expected Latino vote 70-30 and she won the ?decided in the last 3 days? by almost 2-1, and in Nevada, where the culinary workers union ended up not getting him much support.

Granted, by your accounts and simple logic, Ohio should be better territory for him now with the union endorsements and the whole NAFTA issue hitting Clinton hard in the stomach. But she?s still ahead in all the polls, and while there is a potential skew, that data is generally better than a hunch.
________
Chaser (http://www.toyota-wiki.com/wiki/Toyota_Chaser)

[oldanforgotten]

HAHA

I just checked my home voice mail and found a recorded message from Hillary.

THE BEAST HAS MY NUMBER!!!!

:spaz:

You should donate her some money. She's almost tapped out her donor base now.
________
Bmw Z8 History (http://www.bmw-tech.org/wiki/BMW_Z8)

[Tsa`ah]

Granted, by your accounts and simple logic, Ohio should be better territory for him now with the union endorsements and the whole NAFTA issue hitting Clinton hard in the stomach. But she’s still ahead in all the polls, and while there is a potential skew, that data is generally better than a hunch.

Look at poll results since IA vs election results. I'm sorry, but that data is akin to tp in a clogged toilet after the polls close ... if you're basing your "assumptions" on the polls.

The only polls with any semblance of worth have been the exit polls.

[Gan]

I may go out and vote for the first time in my life for Hillary just to watch Gan QQ.

LOL

I'm torn.

Should I:

Vote for Hillary in order to help pave the way for McCain?
Vote for McCain because thus far I have more issues I agree with him than I do for any other candidate.
Vote for Obama just to kick Hillary in the junk and help make the general elections fucking interesting.Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

:thinking:

[Tsa`ah]

Can you cast a vote in the primary for one party and caucus for another?

[Gan]

I believe you can in Texas.

I'll ask my neighbor, he's the polling judge for our precinct.