oldanforgotten
02-11-2008, 03:13 PM
Ok, so preliminary polls show the following:
Depending on which media outlet you use (AP, Realclearpolitics, NBC, FOX), Obama currently has a lead anywhere from 75 to 100 in Pledged Delegates, an approximate 200,000 vote lead in number of votes, and is behind by between 80 and 100 superdelegates.
Results vary from a 27 delegate lead for Clinton to a 5 delegate lead for Obama.
Polls in Virginia show Obama with anywhere from a 15 to 20 point lead:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_democratic_primary-507.html
Polls in Maryland show Obama with anywhere from an 18 to 26 point lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/md/maryland_democratic_primary-514.html
Preliminary but unscientific polls conducted in DC show Obama with a commanding lead of potentially 30 points or more.
There is an interesting contrast in some of the national polls as of late. In polls asking registered voters for a preference, Clinton and Obama are in a statistical tie (Clinton +1.8), which will skew a bit more as One older poll is replaced by the latest MSNBC poll showing 46-41 Obama.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html
Now, given the national changes, why are the sample polls so off at times? The reason is very simplistic. To obtain a good random sample, the sample is generally screened via a litmus test of age, race, and party affiliation. As a result, generally a disproportionately small number of younger people (under the age of 35) and African Americans are polled (generally lower historical poll turnout), two areas that are strongly in favor of Obama, and two areas that are experiencing historically high turnout.
Estimates after the weekend are showing that Obama will probably have a generally unanimous poll lead once the day is complete. Estimates are saying that it is likely that Obama will pad his pledged delegate lead by anywhere from an additonal 35 to 60 delegates if the sample polls hold to form.
He is expected to pad his overall vote lead by another 200-250,000 votes as well.
Campaign officials for Hillary are trying to close the gap in Virginia, and are privately conceding Maryland and D.C., and while they are hoping the gap closes in Virginia, they are not optimistic about upset chances at this point. They are instead trying to solidify Ohio (which has reportedly become closer), and are pre-emptively starting up in Wisconsin (Chelsea is there already). Obama's campaign, on the other hand, has not revealed any part of their strategies in texas or Ohio, and are admitting that it is likely that both of those states, even with momentum, would be uphill climbs.
Another couple of interesting tidbits.
In the State of Washington, CNN reported that exit polls revealed that 44% of Obama's supporters would be happy with either candidate, whereas 47% said that they would not be happy if Clinton got the Nomination, whereas only 31% of Clinton voters said they'd be happy with either, and a whopping 63% said they would be unhappy is Obama got the nomination. Looks like Clinton is the more popular overall choice, right? Wrong.
Obama won the state with nearly 69% of the vote to Clinton's 31%. 63% of Clinton voters, or roughly, 19% of the people who voted, would be unhappy with Obama getting the nomination. 47% of Obama voters, or 32.5% (1.5% more people that voted for Clinton in the first place), would be unhappy with a Clinton nomination.
In what may become a big political blunder:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
Noting that "my husband never did well in caucus states either," Clinton argued that caucuses are "primarily dominated by activists" and that "they don't represent the electorate, we know that."
The New York senator went out of her way to say she was "absolutely" looking forward to the Ohio and Texas primaries in March, where she believes voters are more receptive to her bread-and-butter message.
She also downplayed many of Obama's Super Tuesday victories, describing them as states that Democrats should not expect to win in November.
"It is highly unlikely we will win Alaska or North Dakota or Idaho or Nebraska," she said, naming several of Obama's red state wins. "But we have to win Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, Michigan ? And we've got to be competitive in places like Texas, Missouri and Oklahoma."
Not sure what she's thinking, but glad to know she thinks democrats in those states don't count. And if she was doing her research, she should know that Texas and Oklahoma are two of the reddest states out there, and Nebraska has been a swing state in the past.
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Here's where the fun starts. Due to the way the delegates are divided in each state, estimates are showing that the most likely results going into the Convention, assuming both candidates stay in the race, will be Obama leading by between 180 and 250 delegates, or by around 160-220 pledged delegates.
That would give him a total delegate count from pledged delegates in the 1550-1600 range to Hillary's 1330-1380.
Making it up to the superdelegates. And With Hillary already possessing a near 2 to 1 lead in the pledged delegates (211-221 for Hillary to 118-137 for Obama depending on the source), with 796 up for grabs, and her husband and his clout actively calling for support, it is entirely possible that a person with a sizable lead in the vote could get Clinton'd out of the nomination.
________
Battlestar galactica advice (http://www.tv-gossip.com/battlestar-galactica/)
Depending on which media outlet you use (AP, Realclearpolitics, NBC, FOX), Obama currently has a lead anywhere from 75 to 100 in Pledged Delegates, an approximate 200,000 vote lead in number of votes, and is behind by between 80 and 100 superdelegates.
Results vary from a 27 delegate lead for Clinton to a 5 delegate lead for Obama.
Polls in Virginia show Obama with anywhere from a 15 to 20 point lead:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_democratic_primary-507.html
Polls in Maryland show Obama with anywhere from an 18 to 26 point lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/md/maryland_democratic_primary-514.html
Preliminary but unscientific polls conducted in DC show Obama with a commanding lead of potentially 30 points or more.
There is an interesting contrast in some of the national polls as of late. In polls asking registered voters for a preference, Clinton and Obama are in a statistical tie (Clinton +1.8), which will skew a bit more as One older poll is replaced by the latest MSNBC poll showing 46-41 Obama.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html
Now, given the national changes, why are the sample polls so off at times? The reason is very simplistic. To obtain a good random sample, the sample is generally screened via a litmus test of age, race, and party affiliation. As a result, generally a disproportionately small number of younger people (under the age of 35) and African Americans are polled (generally lower historical poll turnout), two areas that are strongly in favor of Obama, and two areas that are experiencing historically high turnout.
Estimates after the weekend are showing that Obama will probably have a generally unanimous poll lead once the day is complete. Estimates are saying that it is likely that Obama will pad his pledged delegate lead by anywhere from an additonal 35 to 60 delegates if the sample polls hold to form.
He is expected to pad his overall vote lead by another 200-250,000 votes as well.
Campaign officials for Hillary are trying to close the gap in Virginia, and are privately conceding Maryland and D.C., and while they are hoping the gap closes in Virginia, they are not optimistic about upset chances at this point. They are instead trying to solidify Ohio (which has reportedly become closer), and are pre-emptively starting up in Wisconsin (Chelsea is there already). Obama's campaign, on the other hand, has not revealed any part of their strategies in texas or Ohio, and are admitting that it is likely that both of those states, even with momentum, would be uphill climbs.
Another couple of interesting tidbits.
In the State of Washington, CNN reported that exit polls revealed that 44% of Obama's supporters would be happy with either candidate, whereas 47% said that they would not be happy if Clinton got the Nomination, whereas only 31% of Clinton voters said they'd be happy with either, and a whopping 63% said they would be unhappy is Obama got the nomination. Looks like Clinton is the more popular overall choice, right? Wrong.
Obama won the state with nearly 69% of the vote to Clinton's 31%. 63% of Clinton voters, or roughly, 19% of the people who voted, would be unhappy with Obama getting the nomination. 47% of Obama voters, or 32.5% (1.5% more people that voted for Clinton in the first place), would be unhappy with a Clinton nomination.
In what may become a big political blunder:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
Noting that "my husband never did well in caucus states either," Clinton argued that caucuses are "primarily dominated by activists" and that "they don't represent the electorate, we know that."
The New York senator went out of her way to say she was "absolutely" looking forward to the Ohio and Texas primaries in March, where she believes voters are more receptive to her bread-and-butter message.
She also downplayed many of Obama's Super Tuesday victories, describing them as states that Democrats should not expect to win in November.
"It is highly unlikely we will win Alaska or North Dakota or Idaho or Nebraska," she said, naming several of Obama's red state wins. "But we have to win Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, Michigan ? And we've got to be competitive in places like Texas, Missouri and Oklahoma."
Not sure what she's thinking, but glad to know she thinks democrats in those states don't count. And if she was doing her research, she should know that Texas and Oklahoma are two of the reddest states out there, and Nebraska has been a swing state in the past.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's where the fun starts. Due to the way the delegates are divided in each state, estimates are showing that the most likely results going into the Convention, assuming both candidates stay in the race, will be Obama leading by between 180 and 250 delegates, or by around 160-220 pledged delegates.
That would give him a total delegate count from pledged delegates in the 1550-1600 range to Hillary's 1330-1380.
Making it up to the superdelegates. And With Hillary already possessing a near 2 to 1 lead in the pledged delegates (211-221 for Hillary to 118-137 for Obama depending on the source), with 796 up for grabs, and her husband and his clout actively calling for support, it is entirely possible that a person with a sizable lead in the vote could get Clinton'd out of the nomination.
________
Battlestar galactica advice (http://www.tv-gossip.com/battlestar-galactica/)