oldanforgotten
02-06-2008, 12:29 PM
Well, Super Tuesday definitely resolved very little on the democratic side. Realclearpolitics has Clinton with 900 Delegates, and Obama with 824. What is interesting about the numbers is how influential the superdelegates will be. Clinton has won 689 delegates based on the popular vote, and 211 superdelegates. Obama has won 696 delegates based on the popular vote, and has 128 superdelegates to his name. Edwards has 26, and has still not given any indication as to which direction he wants his delegates to go (it is presumed to be Obama, but who knows). Obama picked up all of the critical swing states in Missouri, Delaware, Connecticut, and presumably, New Mexico, and kept the race closer than initially expected in NY and NJ, but however, failed to make some of the inroads he wanted in the state of California. Obama won virtually all of the little battles, but Clinton won the biggest.
Here?s where things get interesting. Obama won 14 of the states (assuming New Mexico stays with him), Clinton 8. The next 9 primaries are Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Virginia, Maryland, And the District of Columbia, ahead of the March 4 primaries in Ohio and Texas. This unfortunately hurts Clinton due to timing. Clinton is way way ahead in Ohio, and while no numbers have been published, is probably the person to beat in Texas. However, the next 9 democratic primaries prior to that ALL favor Obama. He figures to be solidly ahead in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia, and while Clinton has backers in Virginia and Maryland, he also projects ahead in those two states ahead. Clinton will need to steal a victory or some close votes in at least a couple of those states to keep her momentum going into Ohio and Texas, two delegate rich states that currently are in her favor.
Another interesting thing to note. It is now both a realistic and clear possibility that Obama could win more popular vote delegates than Clinton, but be behind in total delegate count due to the superdelegate voting.
The other biggest factor is in electability. The latest batch of polls of a Clinton vs McCain vs Obama vs McCain yield a pretty strong contrast. Whereas Clinton does 4 points better among democrats than Obama, Obama does 4 points better among Republicans, and 12 points better among independants, a trend that has been since the beginning. Obama is doing very strong amongst independants, and Clinton has done stronger among dems, but extremely weak with Republicans, and while she is improving amongst independants, she does not have the kind of strength needed yet to gain any kind of firm advantage in a general election.
On the republican side, if it wasn?t clear before, it?s basically clear now. McCain is an incredibly strong front runner, and unless something drastic happens, it isn?t going to change. He has virtually all but sealed the deal at this point.
Next stop. Saturday.
________
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Here?s where things get interesting. Obama won 14 of the states (assuming New Mexico stays with him), Clinton 8. The next 9 primaries are Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Virginia, Maryland, And the District of Columbia, ahead of the March 4 primaries in Ohio and Texas. This unfortunately hurts Clinton due to timing. Clinton is way way ahead in Ohio, and while no numbers have been published, is probably the person to beat in Texas. However, the next 9 democratic primaries prior to that ALL favor Obama. He figures to be solidly ahead in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia, and while Clinton has backers in Virginia and Maryland, he also projects ahead in those two states ahead. Clinton will need to steal a victory or some close votes in at least a couple of those states to keep her momentum going into Ohio and Texas, two delegate rich states that currently are in her favor.
Another interesting thing to note. It is now both a realistic and clear possibility that Obama could win more popular vote delegates than Clinton, but be behind in total delegate count due to the superdelegate voting.
The other biggest factor is in electability. The latest batch of polls of a Clinton vs McCain vs Obama vs McCain yield a pretty strong contrast. Whereas Clinton does 4 points better among democrats than Obama, Obama does 4 points better among Republicans, and 12 points better among independants, a trend that has been since the beginning. Obama is doing very strong amongst independants, and Clinton has done stronger among dems, but extremely weak with Republicans, and while she is improving amongst independants, she does not have the kind of strength needed yet to gain any kind of firm advantage in a general election.
On the republican side, if it wasn?t clear before, it?s basically clear now. McCain is an incredibly strong front runner, and unless something drastic happens, it isn?t going to change. He has virtually all but sealed the deal at this point.
Next stop. Saturday.
________
Weed Vaporizers (http://weedvaporizers.info/)