Are the rolls fair?

[Cademus]

After seeing hundreds of rolls, it seems to me that the rolls aren't quite random, in fact some rolls especially for player attacks it seems to be much lower. This may just be unwarranted suspicion.... but I wonder has anyone done any testing if the rolls are truly random?

[Stanley Burrell]

Maybe there some sort of Truehand mechanics for certain critters with maneuver attacks. I thought about this once. That was now.

I have out of superstition left wind wraiths with a really low end roll before I hunt fire mages. Gambler's fallacy, or not, I dunno.

[Khariz]

After seeing hundreds of rolls, it seems to me that the rolls aren't quite random, in fact some rolls especially for player attacks it seems to be much lower. This may just be unwarranted suspicion.... but I wonder has anyone done any testing if the rolls are truly random?

You can track it with Lich. Over like 3 months of tracking and my average roll is like 50.75 or something

[Jayvn]

Unless you're tracking it you're more likely to remember all the crappy rolls..I forgot why this is, just one of those human things or something.

[thefarmer]

We easily forget the mundane.

That's why the news is filled with OJ and Britney. No one would pay attention otherwise.

[Gan]

I've rolled the same number 3 times in a row before. Only once though.

I get two rolls that are the same back to back all the time, and usually they're below 10. :(

[Soulpieced]

Theoretically speaking, no computer programmed Random Number Generator is 100% "random". Algorithms have to have ends, so they may be coded out to the millionth, trillionth, etc., but it's not going to be honest to god random. That said, the algorithms are pretty effective, and there's nothing strange with short-term results, plus there is no chance GMs affect any of the standard die rolls.

HOWEVER, if you're dealing with merchant spinners and that sort of thing, different story.

[TheEschaton]

I've gotten 4 armor hindrance failures in a row, once. At brig at 7%, that's .07 * .07 * .07 * .07 = .00000028, IE .000028% chance of happening.

Explanation people tell me is: there's hundreds of thousands of rolls occuring in Gemstone PER SECOND OMFG!!!!11!!

[Cademus]

I was more wondering if in fact the rolls do add up correctly in the long run but lower rolls were more prevalent when you needed them. For instance, when you desperately need a good roll to finish something off...the game will recognize that and give you something below 10 and then later on make up for it by giving you a 100 when you're out hunting with your low level friends.

[Drew]

THE ROLLS ARE FAIR. THE ROLLS ARE WHAT WE THOUGHT THEY WERE. WHO THE HELL TAKES THE 3RD ROLL IN BETA LIKE IT'S BULLSHIT? BUT THE ROLLS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE. NOW IF YOU WANT TO CROWN THEIR ASSES GO AHEAD AND CROWN THEM, BUT THE ROLLS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE.

[Drew]

I was more wondering if in fact the rolls do add up correctly in the long run but lower rolls were more prevalent when you needed them. For instance, when you desperately need a good roll to finish something off...the game will recognize that and give you something below 10 and then later on make up for it by giving you a 100 when you're out hunting with your low level friends.



But seriously, why would the game do this?

[TheEschaton]

THE ROLLS ARE FAIR. THE ROLLS ARE WHAT WE THOUGHT THEY WERE. WHO THE HELL TAKES THE 3RD ROLL IN BETA LIKE IT'S BULLSHIT? BUT THE ROLLS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE. NOW IF YOU WANT TO CROWN THEIR ASSES GO AHEAD AND CROWN THEM, BUT THE ROLLS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE.

FTMFW

[Methais]

Hmm, let me check.



















































http://shop.legalseafoods.com/images/images/DinnerRolls.jpg

Looks fair enough.

[Soulpieced]

http://www.automobilemag.com/future_cars/2008/0609_z+2009_rolls_royce_small_sedan+front.jpg

[Bobmuhthol]

<<At brig at 7%, that's .07 * .07 * .07 * .07 = .00000028, IE .000028% chance of happening.>>

Who the fuck taught you how to multiply? 4 * .07 * .000001 = .00000028. .07^4 = .00002401, which is .002401%.

[Gan]

Yea, I still have the screenshot.

http://i68.photobucket.com/albums/i3/3strangedays/3.jpg

[Sypher]

The dice are rigged, they screw you over when you need good rolls.

I bet they got a formula.. for each screwed you over roll it adds .19 minutes to your total EXPing time and thus altogether another 149109 dollars in revenue at the end of the year. Super pessimism off/

[Teavangelical]

I would just like to take the opportunity to say that your window setup drives me nuts.

:tumble:

[Gan]

I would just like to take the opportunity to say that your window setup drives me nuts.

:tumble:

I'm sure your mom dresses you funny too.

PS. I've modified it a little since then to take up the wasted space. Its still roughly the same overall layout though.

[Solkern]

I always thought the rolls were weighted to have a better chance to hit the low end of the d100

always looked that way to me

[Latrinsorm]

The d100 is appropriately random. The idea that the game has some kind of "tell when you need a good roll" function is pretty ridiculous.