To attune or not to attune, an (over)simplified analysis

[BLZrizz]

The sales post with attuned gear inspired this post. For discussion, I've created a simplified analysis below of the attunement decision, that is, to receive a 25% discount on the upfront price of a service in exchange for the item being account bound. I've come to conclude that attunement is a sucker's bet i.e. superficially attractive but almost always a losing proposition for the customer. But then again, that is the point of the sucker's bet. I don't, however, ascribe nefarious motives to the staff; I think more options are always better than fewer. I just believe that attuning is almost always a bad one.


I'll begin with a simplified formula using a 100m base item and a rotflares certificate, normalized to silver price (1k BS to 1m).

Non-attuned:
Base Item (cost to create): 100m
Rotflares Certificate: 400m

Total Cost to Create: 500m
Market Value (assumed 50% of creation cost): 250m


Attuned:
Base Item (cost to create): 100m
Attuned Rotflares Certificate: 300m

Total Cost to Create: 400m
Market Value, attuned item: Zero


Essentially, when making the decision to attune, the customer is receiving a 100m benefit to forego a 250m market value. When attuning, an individual foregoes the market value of the service AND the market value of the base item that the attuned cert is placed on, and I surmise many individuals don't factor in this diminution in base item value when doing the attunement analysis.

Some may have qualms about the assumptions I've made above, namely:

1. Not factoring subjective assessment of "whether I will ever sell out"
2. The market value of attuned items is zero.

I'll take each in turn. First, individuals are a poor judge of #1. Human beings are notoriously bad at assessing how quickly their life circumstances could change and what their decision set may look like after those changes. When making the decision to attune, I argue that individuals should always value flexibility (i.e. the ability to maximize market value for their items) highly over sentiment ("I love my stuff and would never part with it!!"), to the extent that one should exclude their subjective assessment about their GS4 longevity from the attunement decision.

As for #2, I'd be the first to agree that the market value of attuned items probably isn't zero on the dot. But when incorporating transaction costs related to selling an account with attuned items, for comparison of relative value, the value of attuned items is functionally zero, or negligible in relation to what the same item, unencumbered, would have traded for at market. The PC sales forum has a few data points on this, and I believe those points largely support this assumption.

In any case, I'd be interested to hear others' takes on this.

[Archigeek]

I think you are generally correct. I'm sure some item values are off a bit, but ultimately you're correct: attuned items end up with a saleable value of zero, and attempting to sell a character with attuned items is as likely to move the price that people are willing to pay in the downward direction (because fewer people would be interested), as the upward one.

Selling an account with attuned items is like selling a quirky, custom house: it may be cool, but even the people who love it know that the market demand for it is less and bid accordingly.

[gilchristr]

Here is my analysis - screw attunement. There could be a mechanics change that would make it a good idea to move an item from one of my characters to another. I can't even do that if I've attuned.

Example, the archery review made sense for a couple of my characters to switch to archery while one stayed melee. If they had an attuned item, for say, arm of the arkati, it would now be useless to the characters that switch (since that helps the DF 10% for only melee attacks). So without even getting to trading the item to another player, I can't react to the archery change by moving an item from one of my characters to another.

[Orthin]

I like the attune option, used it for my lowly runestaff (T2 sigil staff). Granted its the only thing I have attuned to but I definitely like the option. I'm not terribly concerned about the $$ lost but I am also not attuning to something worth 100s of millions (nor do I intent to take my sigil staff that high).

[Nephelem]

Anything expensive enough for attunement to matter is something I wouldn't attune. The only exception for me was shimmer trinkets, as I just consider them a requirement on every character, so attunement is no bother.

[dzulthu]

I know at least one person who's sitting on a bunch of gear because they can't be bothered to sell it. If you're a hoarder, go with attunement. Otherwise, it basically never pays off, especially in the case of account liquidation.

I guess if you think you can merchant your way to more silvers, you could argue you're missing out on opportunity cost (e.g., 8x/day Bravery would cost 295K bloodscrip without attunement and 221K with, leaving you 74K to buy low and sell high).

[Teveriel]

I have an attuned set of padded Voln plate that I've been steadily improving over time. Tev's going to rock that for the rest of his days. Alts are another story, because they come and go, but I'm glad attunement exists for the one character I know is never going anywhere.

[Leafiara]

I can't even imagine attuning a mechanical item since any given mechanics change could make me want to sell an item off. New scripts, new materials with innate properties, new large-scale systems like PSM3, new training paths in ascension, the list goes on. Even a character outgrowing an item with enough exp.

Fluff is a different story and I can at least understand attuning that, though I haven't done it yet and don't know if I ever will. Fluff becoming outclassed is more rare than with gear, but it can still happen. For example, imagine if we could have bought fully unlocked Climatewear cloaks at attuned prices at Duskruin years ago... that would have seemed like a pretty safe bet, but now we have Dramatic Drapery cloaks with fluff aspects and combat benefits in the same inventory slot.

Bottom line, no item is future-proof and I don't like gambling on how long it'll be before something better gets made.

[Rjex]

What she said. GS isn't static, it's constantly changing, evolving. No equipment choice can ever be certain.

[chowell]

Sounds like there is some opportunity space here for Simu, perhaps an attuned revert option at future DRs? Pay the difference it would cost to convert an attuned item to un-attuned plus a modest fee, of course.


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[Rjex]

If it's simu, they should charge double the savings cost to "unattune" the item.

[nocturnix]

Seeing as resale value of DR created items so far is crap, I think attuning is not a bad idea. Personally its not for me as i have many alts and want to be able to switch between alts/accounts. Also, I still hold out hope that items from DR that are no longer offered in the future might appreciate in value. For example now that you can not get nervestaffs from DR anymore they are slowly increasing in value. Same should be the case for other scripts that are eventually removed and, I hope never offered again. If they start re-adding old scripts back into DR in the future, that would kill the market value and you can basically forget about ever making profits from scripted items you make in DR. I have the feeling/hope though that once a script is removed from DR it won't be offered again.

[Maerit]

I think one assumption is false. You CAN sell attuned gear. You just sell the account and include the price of any number of account transfers. So your numbers need to include how much it would cost in dollars to transfer your character(s) to another account and sell the item via account sale.

That being said, I have only ever purchased one thing ATTUNED, and it was a x/day 1606 & combiners because my EG Ether is already Character bound, so boosting that item's charges per day through ATTUNE purchases was actually a good way to save.

I've considered buying a spellbook that was ATTUNED because I have 3x MnE characters on one account, that could all use the item, so it wouldn't be wasteful, but still can't justify the cost.

[Maerit]

Seeing as resale value of DR created items so far is crap, I think attuning is not a bad idea. Personally its not for me as i have many alts and want to be able to switch between alts/accounts. Also, I still hold out hope that items from DR that are no longer offered in the future might appreciate in value. For example now that you can not get nervestaffs from DR anymore they are slowly increasing in value. Same should be the case for other scripts that are eventually removed and, I hope never offered again. If they start re-adding old scripts back into DR in the future, that would kill the market value and you can basically forget about ever making profits from scripted items you make in DR. I have the feeling/hope though that once a script is removed from DR it won't be offered again.

But you can add nervestaff via HESS and it hasn't killed the value.

[Gelston]

I think you are generally correct. I'm sure some item values are off a bit, but ultimately you're correct: attuned items end up with a saleable value of zero, and attempting to sell a character with attuned items is as likely to move the price that people are willing to pay in the downward direction (because fewer people would be interested), as the upward one.

Selling an account with attuned items is like selling a quirky, custom house: it may be cool, but even the people who love it know that the market demand for it is less and bid accordingly.

It'll never make a character worth less.

[Methais]

If it's simu, they should charge double the savings cost to "unattune" the item.

And make it require 5 years worth of massively overpriced unlocks.

[nocturnix]

But you can add nervestaff via HESS and it hasn't killed the value.

True, forgot that. Actually the pricing in HESS has increased the value of the original staves, since creating a nervestaff now would cost 175,000 BS or, at current prices, 218m.

[Archigeek]

One other thing to add: if you have an item that's already attuned, like coreasine: yay you, the attune option is like free money. Go for it.

[Tgo01]

If Simu were smart they would play both sides of this debate.

Official announcement:

Introducing our latest SimuCoins Store item! an un-attune potion!

Simply pour this potion on any attuned item and it will become un-attuned!

Only 100,000 SimuCoins!

[Berost]

For what it is worth (exactly ZERO! :D):

I attuned my armor, cuz that crap is mine, been mine since 2007, and welp, if Berost goes down, it goes down. And I am fairly confident a warrior in full plate is a fairly safe bet (of course tomorrow they will now announce a new META of Warriors in robes cuz I posted this ..... )

My sword though? That deserves to be in the game if Berost goes away. Would never attune it. Probably the history nerd in me. But, meh, oh well.

In the end, think it was Ardwen in another thread that said it: It's your subscription and your $, do what ya want with it.

[BLZrizz]

Bump for DR. Remember everyone who attunes falls into one of two categories: those who regret it and those who will. Friends don’t let friends attune!