Latrinsorm
02-12-2022, 05:22 PM
Cases go up, then a little while later hospitalizations, then a little while later deaths, then some time later cases go down, then a little while later hospitalizations, then a little while later deaths - always on the same respective delays, always proportionally. We've seen this happen all across the world and right here in America during the 2020 spring surge, the 2020 summer surge, the 2020 fall+winter surge, and the 2021 summer surge.
So when cases rose so sharply in South Africa in November, people paid very close attention, but then this happened...
https://imgur.com/RtsawvJ.png
...and since deaths weren't going up proportionally and cases were already declining, many concluded that the omicron variant driving the spike in cases was "less deadly" and we stopped looking at South Africa. Now this has happened:
https://imgur.com/oQGfLYQ.png
At their July peak, there were 501,495 cases and 13,258 deaths, or 1 death per 38 confirmed cases. When cases had returned to their pre surge levels there were 1,350,937 cases and 34,611 deaths, or 1 death per 39 confirmed cases. This is how proportionality works - no matter what point you look in the curve, the sums will have pretty much the same ratio.
At their December peak, there was 1 death per 195 confirmed cases. Cases still haven't returned to their pre surge levels but they did reach a post surge minimum a couple weeks ago and are roughly flat since, and at that minimum there was 1 death per 107 confirmed cases. With cases remaining flat even if deaths have peaked and begin to decline, that number will continue to fall - where omicron was once 5 times less deadly than delta in South Africa, within two weeks it will be no better than 2 times less deadly.
I talk all the time about how I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, that we all know what's going on and just need to say it out loud. I don't know the mechanism for what's going on in South Africa, whether omicron just takes way longer to kill people or what, and looking around it doesn't seem like anybody knows, but it doesn't really matter to what we do now.
We looked away.
Now we have to look.
The truth can't be wheedled or cajoled or bargained with or shouted down.
The truth is the truth, and if we want to tell the same old stories about how it won't happen here, there's nothing we can do, we have to move on, we'll get the same old results of hundreds of thousands more needless deaths.
I promise it'll be easier to look ourselves in the mirror before that than after.
So when cases rose so sharply in South Africa in November, people paid very close attention, but then this happened...
https://imgur.com/RtsawvJ.png
...and since deaths weren't going up proportionally and cases were already declining, many concluded that the omicron variant driving the spike in cases was "less deadly" and we stopped looking at South Africa. Now this has happened:
https://imgur.com/oQGfLYQ.png
At their July peak, there were 501,495 cases and 13,258 deaths, or 1 death per 38 confirmed cases. When cases had returned to their pre surge levels there were 1,350,937 cases and 34,611 deaths, or 1 death per 39 confirmed cases. This is how proportionality works - no matter what point you look in the curve, the sums will have pretty much the same ratio.
At their December peak, there was 1 death per 195 confirmed cases. Cases still haven't returned to their pre surge levels but they did reach a post surge minimum a couple weeks ago and are roughly flat since, and at that minimum there was 1 death per 107 confirmed cases. With cases remaining flat even if deaths have peaked and begin to decline, that number will continue to fall - where omicron was once 5 times less deadly than delta in South Africa, within two weeks it will be no better than 2 times less deadly.
I talk all the time about how I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, that we all know what's going on and just need to say it out loud. I don't know the mechanism for what's going on in South Africa, whether omicron just takes way longer to kill people or what, and looking around it doesn't seem like anybody knows, but it doesn't really matter to what we do now.
We looked away.
Now we have to look.
The truth can't be wheedled or cajoled or bargained with or shouted down.
The truth is the truth, and if we want to tell the same old stories about how it won't happen here, there's nothing we can do, we have to move on, we'll get the same old results of hundreds of thousands more needless deaths.
I promise it'll be easier to look ourselves in the mirror before that than after.