Sufferably Sufficient Suffusion for Sorcerers

[nindon]

After reading about the new suffusion point system on the official forum, I decided to work up a spreadsheet that would help to figure out the optimal number of suffusion points on a particular project.

Here it is as a Google Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NccVO3rENnb-UcnREKEkyKxu0R8SsSGYx_WkPDSlcQ4/edit?usp=sharing


To use it, you'll need to make a copy in your Google Drive. I tried downloading it and opening it in Excel. It did not work.

The project was more involved than I initially thought it would be. I'm not sure why this interested me so. I don't have any plans to accumulate suffusion points.

The point of the spreadsheet is that you would often be better off using fewer suffusion points (up to 99 fewer, depending on the circumstances) than the number generated by the game's Suffuse Estimate. But you have to be careful about what you are risking. The spreadsheet computes (1) the savings you would enjoy by using a probability of success chosen by you, (2) the statistically optimal number of suffusion points and related probability of success, and (3) how many attempts you will have before depleting your resources under your chosen and the optimal percentages.

If you see that I went astray, please let me know, either commenting in the spreadsheet itself (not on your separate copy) or by posting here.

[Xred]

thank you for doing this.

[Rinualdo]

For consideration from Discord:


Viduus — Yesterday at 5:53 PM
So, general public advice message since I just saw this statement on pc with a corresponding linked spreadsheet and have seen it on the forums as well.
The point of the spreadsheet is that you would often be better off using fewer suffusion points (up to 99 fewer, depending on the circumstances)
That will never be true.
If estimate tells you something takes 200 points to achieve. You can't halve that number and still expect success.

[nindon]

For consideration:

I did not see that post. Where did it appear?

The optimal number of suffusion points in the spreadsheet is not computed as a fraction of the Suffuse Estimate amount. Instead, the spreadsheet begins with the Suffuse Estimate number and then reduces it by 1 suffusion point, then 2, then 3, all the way up to 99, to determine what reduction, if any, results in the largest expected necro point equivalent savings, converting suffusion points to an equivalent number of necro points for purposes of comparison. Expected savings is computed assuming you experience the statistically expected number of failures. It is a gamble. When you are well informed, it is a rigged gamble.

I agree that it would be a rare coincidence for the optimal solution to be half of the Suffuse Estimate number. One example of that rare coincidence would be when doing a T1 using GoE with a Suffuse Estimate number of 160, which would result in an optimal number of suffusion points of 80. Each failure would cost 18,500 equivalent necro points (8 suffusion points + 2,500 normal necro points). In that example, if you fail on your first five attempts and succeed on your sixth attempt, then you would have saved the equivalent of 67,500 necro points (80*2000-18500*5) compared to using 160 suffusion points, as suggested by Suffuse Estimate. The probability of succeeding on the first channel would be just 36%, but the probability of succeeding on or before the 6th channel would be 93.1%. The statistically expected number of failures would be 1.778.

Going with the optimal solution may not always be the smart choice. Viduus gave the example of attempting a T4 with a Suffuse Estimate of 1454. The spreadsheet would suggest an optimal suffusion point number of 1426 if you use GoE, which would give you a 92.2% probability of success. The risk of saving those 28 suffusion points would be 291,450 necro point equivalents per failure. In that case, I would prefer to spend the extra 28 suffusion points for a 100% chance of success (don't waste GoE if you're using the points needed for 100% success), subject to fumbles. In contrast, I would take the gamble in the example in the preceding paragraph, though even then I might decide to use a higher initial probability of success, say 75%, which would result in lower savings but less risk.

[nindon]

I used the above linked spreadsheet today to calculate suffusion points to use on a personal project. The Suffusion Estimate for a T3 ensorcell was 116. Using those facts, the spreadsheet generated an optimal suggestion of 31 suffusion points, which was just a 27.8% chance of success on each Channel with an expected number of failures of 2.6. My actual number of failures was 4, and I succeeded on the fifth Channel. My savings from using 31 suffusion points, instead of the Suffusion Estimate of 116, was the equivalent of 125,200 necro points, which is 2.5 weeks.

This was the first time I have used suffusion points. If you have never used suffusion points, then the below log excerpts might be helpful to you on your future first attempt. Everything was done wearing all my ensorcelling enchancives and in a guild workshop.


>suff est
You will need at least 126 suffused energy to successfully work on the green leathers.

[Comment: This confused me, because I was expecting the number to be 116. After scratching my head a while, I realized that my ensorcelling enhancives had increased my spirit points by 1. After waiting to recover that 1 spirit point, I proceeded. Even 1 spirit point below your maximum will hinder your chances.]

>You do not feel drained anymore.
>suff est
You will need at least 116 suffused energy to successfully work on the green leathers.

>pr 735
You begin drawing a faint, twisting symbol while softly intoning the words for Ensorcell...
Your spell is ready.
>cast my leather
You gesture at some plain green leathers.
You sense that the green leathers has already been permanently ensorcelled 2 times and that you will likely need a miracle to complete this ensorcellment.
[CHANNEL this spell at the green leathers if you would like to proceed with this ensorcellment attempt.]
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.

[The above cast was a test before using Suffuse Apply.]

>suff apply 31
>Revelations of the nuances of necrotic energy flood your mind as you are engulfed in released energy.
[Player Service granted 31 additional bonus skill if used within the next 5 minutes.]

>pr 735
You begin drawing a faint, twisting symbol while softly intoning the words for Ensorcell...
Your spell is ready.
>cast my leat
You gesture at some plain green leathers.
You sense that the green leathers has already been permanently ensorcelled 2 times and that this ensorcellment will be very difficult.
[CHANNEL this spell at the green leathers if you would like to proceed with this ensorcellment attempt.]
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.

>boost gift eonak
[You have activated a Gift of Eonak! You will have an advantage on crafting skill rolls for 15 minutes.]

>pr 735
You begin drawing a faint, twisting symbol while softly intoning the words for Ensorcell...
Your spell is ready.
>channel my leather
You channel at some plain green leathers.
You begin to channel your stored necrotic energy at the green leathers. You carefully regulate the flow of energy in order to attempt to overcome its natural resistance while not simultaneously overwhelming yourself...
You make a decent attempt.
Failure! You are unable to overcome the green leathers's defenses, wasting some of your stored necrotic energy in the fruitless attempt.
The revelations become clouded in your mind as you weave the suffused energy into your work. The process goes horribly wrong and you lose energy in the process!
[You have lost 3 suffused energy.]
Roundtime: 15 sec.

[Three more failures omitted before the below success.]

>suff apply 31
Revelations of the nuances of necrotic energy flood your mind as you are engulfed in released energy.
[Player Service granted 31 additional bonus skill if used within the next 5 minutes.]

[You have to activate Suffuse Apply before each attempt.]

>pr 735
You begin drawing a faint, twisting symbol while softly intoning the words for Ensorcell...
Your spell is ready.
>channel my leat
You channel at some plain green leathers.
You begin to channel your stored necrotic energy at the green leathers. You carefully regulate the flow of energy in order to attempt to overcome its natural resistance while not simultaneously overwhelming yourself...
You make an outstanding attempt!
Success! You manage to breach the green leathers's defenses and pour in enough of your stored necrotic energy to permanently fuse it to the green leathers's very structure.
The revelations fade from your mind as you weave the suffused energy into your work.
Roundtime: 15 sec.

>suff est
You will need at least 166 suffused energy to successfully work on the green leathers.

[The new Suffuse Estimate of 166 is consistent with the expected 50 point difficulty increase for each tier of ensorcellment.]

[Realk]

perhaps not the most important numbers since you are working with figuring out suffission as it is.. but what was the spread of difficulty number wise that you were able to overcome.. using less of the suffused points...

[nindon]

The Suffuse Estimate number of 116 was the number of suffusion points necessary for a 100% chance of success, barring a fumble. Lowering the number of suffusion points to 31 reduced the probability of success to 31-(116-100)=15%. Activating GoE, which you should always do if you are Applying less than the Suffuse Estimate number, increased the probability of success to 0.15*2 - 0.15^2 = 27.75%. Even with several failures, the ultimate savings in the form of costly suffusion points amply offset the losses from four failures.

I think that is what you are asking.

If you are asking the difficulty of the project, then with Suffuse Estimate, I could work out that number based on ensorcelling bonus. My bonus was 714, so the project's difficulty should have been 714+116-100=730 (or possibly 729, since you need a 101 endroll).

I understand that the number generated by Suffuse Estimate is the amount of additional skill you would need to succeed if you roll a 1. I'm not exactly sure how fumbles and open rolls work, so I've chosen to ignore those.

Pro tip: If you want to be able to estimate item difficulty without having to put on all of your enhancives and go to a workshop each time, then just figure out how much your enhancives and a workshop decrease Suffuse Estimate. The easiest way to compute that number is to use Suffuse Estimate on a difficult item while wearing all your enhancives in a workshop. Then remove all your enhancives and go out of the workshop and Suffuse Estimate again. Remember the difference. The difference is the number you will subtract from Suffuse Estimates made when you're not wearing enhancives and in a workshop. Be sure you are at full spirit and health with no injuries when using Suffuse Estimate.

[Tasien]

Could you make a spreadsheet like this for Cleric Sanctify?

[nindon]

I'm afraid I don't know much about any profession other than Sorcerers. Feel free to copy and modify the spreadsheet in whatever way is needed for Clerics.

[Archigeek]

I'm afraid I don't know much about any profession other than Sorcerers. Feel free to copy and modify the spreadsheet in whatever way is needed for Clerics.

I think of all the profession skills, ensorcell and sanctify may have the most identical formulas.