Oil Supply & dependency

[Jenisi]

So I have to write a paper on Oil Supply & dependency... Basically the yin and the yang of the subject. I figured somone on here might know a good deal more about the subject then I do and this would be a nice place to start. The politics of it... The U.S dependency problems etc..

[Back]

I’m not being facetious, but a simple Google search will bring up all kinds of info on just about anything.

It also works when you phrase as a question.

[Jenisi]

Well this is more of a discussion... And I'd like to see what the ideas are of some of the people on the boards are... I do plan on doing massive amounts of research. Like I said, just thought it'd be a nice place to start.

So, uh. what do you wanna know

[xtc]

This is a Dutch documentary on Hydrogen and oil. Most of it is in English. Perhaps it will help.

http://tinyurl.com/6hsa5

[Apotheosis]

basically, here's the deal

everyone needs oil, espeically the growing economic powers like china and india

oil producers see this as a good opportunity to gouge the fuck out of everyone

because oil companies rule the world, they win

so, we get stuck with, at least in michigan, 2.38$ a gallon.

and the oil companies make $$$, and we can basically live with that because we are making more $$$

and the all the "panic", etc. is basically a ruse to get us to freak out and pay more, ie, drive up prices..

also, with emerging fuel cell and alternative energy sources, the oil companies are planning for a fat retirement

:rant: :rant: :Rant:

Also, if you can get a hold of the documentary "House of Saud" you'll see America's relationship with Saudi Arabia, their oil, and how things were done over there. It's amazing how close America was to invading Saudi Arabia during the oil crisis.

- Arkans

[xtc]

I think it is important to acknowledge that many Oil Analysts that work for the large brokerage companies are predicting an oil crisis within the next 50 years. They believe that the supply of oil in the world has peaked and we are now on the back side.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0129/p14s01-wogi.html

Some more important factors:

1. China is a massive emerging market, this year alone they are using 30% more oil than forecasted.

2. India is also an emerging market and a large consumer of oil.

3. Outside of the Arab nations, other big oil producing nations are Venezuela and Russia. Venezuela is becoming increasingly more hostile to America and increasingly friendlier with China.

4. Canada, Mexico, Norway, China and the USA are also large oil producing nations

5. Oil Analysts predict that oil will hit $100 a barrel by 2010, just 5 years away. Currently oil is trading around $53-57 per barrel. The supply of oil is controlled by the cartel of oil producing nations called OPEC. OPEC members are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

6. Oil runs the world. Oil is required to heat our homes, run our factories, heat our offices, run our cars and trucks. It is also used to make many products like plastics. When the price of oil increases it isn’t just our monthly car gas bill that increases. Every product we buy now cost more money to make and more to transport. Air fuel costs more affecting ticker prices which in turn will affect the number of people who fly, which in turn will affect hotel vacancy rates and so on down the line, car rental etc.


I have found an interesting site on oil filled with stats. The site is run by a Geologist who owns a consulting firm in Montana called Gibson Consulting.

http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

Jenisi I expect to be footnoted in your paper.

[Jenisi]

Don't worry, I'll put this website down as a sorce :p And mention names... My professor will think i'm weird but hey.

[xtc]

Originally posted by Jenisi
Don't worry, I'll put this website down as a sorce :p And mention names... My professor will think i'm weird but hey.

lol ok

Please note Jenisi that there isn't a consensus of thought on oil supply. Some people believe that there isn't an oil crisis and that it is a lot of Chicken Little and the sky is falling stuff. I would urge you to study both sides when writing your paper.

[Jenisi]

That's actually what I have to do.

[HarmNone]

Saudi Arabia's oil reserves are dwindling. They have been doing so for more than twenty years. They've been pumping seawater into the reservoirs to bring the oil to the top so that it can be pumped more easily for over twenty years. They're not sitting on huge lakes of oil anymore. More like ponds.

[HarmNone]

Here's an interesting link for you, hon. It also has some other very interesting information available through the links to the left of the site page. :)

http://www.iags.org/n0331043.htm

[Jenisi]

Thanks alot guys. This is the first time I've had to do a paper in about 3 or 4 years (my other classes haven't required one yet since i'm taking 100 level courses right now and haven't taken an english class yet which I bet Bob can't wait for that) So I'm just trying to gain information any way I can.

I'd say whatever oil crisis there is would be of our own makings. Saudi Arabia hasn't peaked 40% of its possible oil production in a few decades and we as Americans *decide* to not use our own oil fields for reasons such as envrionmental considerations, and to not push ourselves toward alternate energy means.

However, you are seeing more and more car manufactorers (ugh can't spell today) making more fuel efficient cars and in some cases taking the gambit of hydrogen powered mobiles. Time will tell if demand for these sort of things will pick up and force the market to shift its focus, but if gas prices stay at what, 2.35? I bet you'll see alot of people going towards more economical avenues.

What class is this for?

[Jenisi]

Political Science.

Sweet. I (obviously) loved that class.

[Jenisi]

Well, I'm about to get started on my paper, I'll share it when I'm done.

[Gan]

Here's another link you'd be interested in as a source for info.

American Petroleum Institute (http://api-ec.api.org/newsplashpage/index.cfm)

Technology Review (magazine I subscribe to published by MIT) had a good article/review discussing drilling in Alaska in its April 2005 issue titled "Wild Profits" pp. 74.

Wild Profits (http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/05/04/issue/review_wild.asp)

Good luck on your paper.

[Edited on 4-10-2005 by Ganalon]

Actually, in the this is your war thread I posted a link to department of energy statement to congress about the US's future Oil dependency.

[theotherjohn]

Originally posted by xtc

Please note Jenisi that there isn't a consensus of thought on oil supply. Some people believe that there isn't an oil crisis

there is not a oil crisis.

it is the powerful auto lobbists

Did you know more electric and hybrid cars were being produced in the 90s than now?

[Jenisi]

Ok so this is what I have so far... and you'll obviously figure out quickly what my point is going to be. I'm doing my best not to be biased.

The national security of the United states depends on the reliable supply of energy to support out needs. We are continually dealing with fluctuating oil prices from a number of reasons. Quite a few sources believe we are having an ongoing oil and energy crisis and have very good reasons to believe this is so. Although a number of others have reason to suspect there is little energy crisis but our political representatives being in cahoots with oil companies. And as Americans we count on energy to protect our daily lives, our security, an our economy. With our demand currently exceeding the supply by 5% and considering petroleum is the source of 2/5th the total U.S. energy supply (more then any other source) It’s clear to understand the worry.

[Jenisi]

Coming along good

The national security of the United states depends on the reliable supply of energy to support out needs. We are continually dealing with fluctuating oil prices from a number of reasons. Quite a few sources believe we are having an ongoing oil and energy crisis and have very good reasons to believe this is so. Although a number of others have reason to suspect there is little energy crisis, but our political representatives being in cahoots with oil companies. And as Americans we count on energy to protect our daily lives, our security, an our economy. With our demand currently exceeding the supply by 5% and considering petroleum is the source of 2/5th the total U.S. energy supply (more then any other source) It’s clear to understand the worry.
U.S. aside, the world has used up about 930 billion barrels of oil since the 1800’s, and left about some 3 trillion in the ground still. That estimate includes about 732 billion barrels of not-yet-discovered oil and an assumed growth in reserves in already discovered fields. So we’ll assume by now the world has used up about 23% of it’s total petroleum resources. Now we come to the question of have we reached our peak? If we have, then there is a crisis on our hands. Yet, regardless, we will eventually hit a peak.
The U.S. imports about 50% of the oil it uses, and as an oil-importing nation, our energy security is strongly linked with the political and economic security of our suppliers. Extremely vulnerable, we constantly have to worry about instability in the Middle East and Venezuela. The U.S. can no longer just sit around and wait for the next big energy crisis to marshal its intellectual and industrial resources. Our growing dependence on increasingly scarce Middle Eastern oil is a fool's game—there is no way for the rest of the world to win. Our losses may come suddenly through war, steadily through price increases, agonizingly through developing-nation poverty, relentlessly through climate change—or through all of the above.
Well, obviously if we are going to strive for independence, we start looking for way’s to solve the problem at home. Now quickly the idea of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), an immense, untouched wilderness area in northeastern Alaska with generous amounts of oil lying beneath it was brought up. While this proposal has generated enormous controversy in the United States because of its deleterious impact on the environment, it also has allowed the White House to argue that the administration is committed to a policy of energy independence. However, careful examination of the Cheney report leads to an entirely different conclusion. Aside from the ANWR proposal, nothing in the NEP would contribute to a significant decline in U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. In fact, the very opposite is true: The basic goal of the Cheney plan is to find additional external sources of oil for the United States. Bush made a clear decision regarding future U.S. energy behavior. Knowing that nothing can reverse the long-term decline in domestic oil production, and unwilling to curb the country's ongoing thirst for petroleum products, he chose to continue down the existing path of ever-increasing dependence on foreign oil.

[Back]

Thats an excellent assessment of the situation. Especially the very first line.


The national security of the United states depends on the reliable supply of energy to support out needs.

You need to run spell check and clean it up a little, but it really does sum up American policy.