On Israel and Vaccination

[Latrinsorm]

Israel introduced national COVID lockdowns on December 27th in response to a surge in new cases. After another two weeks of increase in new cases, their curve leveled off and has begun decreasing.
This is not news, as lockdowns have been just as effective everywhere else they've been implemented, and on the same timeline besides.
What is important to note is that Israel introduced the COVID vaccine a week earlier, focused on the most vulnerable populations, and yet their new deaths on any given day are still extremely well correlated to their new cases from two weeks earlier:

https://imgur.com/P6fgvEG.png

And their earlier introduction of the vaccine is not an outlier, they are lapping the field in vaccine administered:

https://imgur.com/V8DqF8p.png

Per Axios, 70% (https://www.axios.com/israel-coronavirus-crisis-elections-vaccination-8c796516-e7d8-40df-b4b4-549299487c83.html) of their highest-priority group is vaccinated, but new deaths continue to be locked to new cases. Even with mass vaccination, it is not possible to let most people go about their business while protecting the most vulnerable population.

And we are very, very far from mass vaccination.

.

The vaccine will be a crucial tool in ending this pandemic.
In the four or five or six or seven or eight months until enough of it is administered in the US of A, the rules will not change:
Masks work.
Lockdowns work.
Distancing works.
Not doing them doesn't.

We've got this.

If we want to.

[Gelston]

Don't worry, Biden is President. Lockdowns and COVID are all ending soon.

[Methais]

Biden is going to cure COVID because he's tired of Latrin's dumbass threads.

[Latrinsorm]

Biden is going to cure COVID because he's tired of Latrin's dumbass threads.

senator mcconnell isn't the only one who can play the long game

[Methais]

senator mcconnell isn't the only one who can play the long game

Lemme tell you something about the Long game...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EM6llYeWsAMhEaN.jpg

[caelric]

Lockdowns clearly work. I mean, just look at California, who is doing very well with no COVID surges, or anything like that.

[Gelston]

Lockdowns clearly work. I mean, just look at California, who is doing very well with no COVID surges, or anything like that.

Lockdowns would work if they were actual enforced lockdowns. I don't think that sort of thing would slide here in the US.

[Methais]

Just wear 3 masks. 2 on your face and one over your butthole.

[caelric]

Just wear 3 masks. 2 on your face and one over your butthole.

You joke, but China is actually moving to anal swabs for COVID testing. Yes, you read that right, anal swabs. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/27/china-starts-using-anal-swabs-test-covid-high-infection-areas)

[Methais]

You joke, but China is actually moving to anal swabs for COVID testing. Yes, you read that right, anal swabs. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/27/china-starts-using-anal-swabs-test-covid-high-infection-areas)

No jokes here only lulz (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?108102-Things-that-made-you-laugh-today-(Political-Version)&p=2194827#post2194827)

[Latrinsorm]

Lockdowns clearly work. I mean, just look at California, who is doing very well with no COVID surges, or anything like that.

Let's look at California.

Yesterday California saw the 23rd most new cases per capita in the US, behind states including but not limited to Massachusetts, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, Utah, Texas, Connecticut, Arizona, Kansas...

Are you sure you weren't thinking of a different state?

[caelric]

Yesterday

One day. You should know better.

[Latrinsorm]

One day. You should know better.

California's new cases are less than half they were at their peak December 18th.
Their reduction of 52% is well above the national average of 36% over the same time frame.
That peak was a little over two weeks after they went into lockdown on December 3rd.
None of this is a coincidence.

Now that they have lifted lockdown, their new cases will continue to decrease for a bit, then start increasing again.
This will also not be a coincidence.

[Latrinsorm]

Israel is now past 60 doses per 100 people. (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations) And their new deaths remain pegged to new cases. And with six times as much vaccination and a MUCH stricter lockdown than us, their cases are plateauing.

https://imgur.com/FLZdFx7.png

One of the earliest hit nations by a major variant has seen such discouraging data they have discontinued the Astra-Zeneca vaccine entirely (https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-safrica/update-1-south-africa-halts-astrazeneca-vaccinations-over-variant-data-idUSL1N2KD0GE). It is so ineffective they're not bothering to inject people with it.

.

Our new cases are going to drop below 100,000 for the first time since early November.
In early November we were half again as high as the summer peak.
We don't have to accept this massive improvement over 200,000+ new daily cases as an end.

We can't.

The vaccines are simply not effective enough against the variants to finish the job with our November-December levels of effort.
But we're already going back to them.
Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Wyoming, California, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Oregon, all easing restrictions.
Cases will keep going down and plateau over the next couple weeks.

In March they will rise sharply.

This is unavoidable.

The UK lifted a national lockdown December 2nd, when they were seeing 15,000 cases.
By December 22nd they were seeing 35,000 cases.
They instituted another national lockdown.
Too late.
They reached 60,000 cases by the time the lockdown took effect.
Even now they're only back down to 20,000 cases.

.

If we quadruple from where we are, we will see 400,000 daily cases and well over 5,000 daily deaths.
If we ignore the eased restrictions and keep up the pressure, we can get our new cases down to ~10,000 a day by March.
And when (not if) the variants take hold we'll only rise to a death toll of 500 lost a day.
That's the absolute best case scenario that each and every one of us has to fight a solid month for.

We can do it.

[Methais]

Israel is now past 60 doses per 100 people. (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations) And their new deaths remain pegged to new cases. And with six times as much vaccination and a MUCH stricter lockdown than us, their cases are plateauing.

https://imgur.com/FLZdFx7.png

One of the earliest hit nations by a major variant has seen such discouraging data they have discontinued the Astra-Zeneca vaccine entirely (https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-safrica/update-1-south-africa-halts-astrazeneca-vaccinations-over-variant-data-idUSL1N2KD0GE). It is so ineffective they're not bothering to inject people with it.

.

Our new cases are going to drop below 100,000 for the first time since early November.
In early November we were half again as high as the summer peak.
We don't have to accept this massive improvement over 200,000+ new daily cases as an end.

We can't.

The vaccines are simply not effective enough against the variants to finish the job with our November-December levels of effort.
But we're already going back to them.
Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Wyoming, California, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Oregon, all easing restrictions.
Cases will keep going down and plateau over the next couple weeks.

In March they will rise sharply.

This is unavoidable.

The UK lifted a national lockdown December 2nd, when they were seeing 15,000 cases.
By December 22nd they were seeing 35,000 cases.
They instituted another national lockdown.
Too late.
They reached 60,000 cases by the time the lockdown took effect.
Even now they're only back down to 20,000 cases.

.

If we quadruple from where we are, we will see 400,000 daily cases and well over 5,000 daily deaths.
If we ignore the eased restrictions and keep up the pressure, we can get our new cases down to ~10,000 a day by March.
And when (not if) the variants take hold we'll only rise to a death toll of 500 lost a day.
That's the absolute best case scenario that each and every one of us has to fight a solid month for.

We can do it.

https://media1.giphy.com/media/xTiTnk7cRvop40CYLu/source.gif