Latrinsorm
09-24-2020, 04:31 PM
A lot (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53515077) of (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-fall-projections-second-wave/2020/09/04/6edb3392-ed61-11ea-99a1-71343d03bc29_story.html) people (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3102415/coronavirus-second-wave-over-winter-inevitable-china-infectious) are concerned about COVID-19 being seasonal; that like the flu it spreads much more in the winter than it does in the summer, that we are in for a massive and imminent increase in deaths that will bring us to 400,000+ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-united-states-coronavirus-deaths-projection-400000-by-end-of-year/#:~:text=A%20coronavirus%20models%20projects%20dea ths,according%20to%20Johns%20Hopkins%20University. ) by the end of 2020.
Now, it's important to distinguish between the pandemic worsening because in the winter we will continue giving up on masks distancing etc., versus the pandemic worsening in the winter just because it's winter. The first is already happening and we know it will continue until we hit a point where enough Americans won't tolerate the higher level of deaths (as they previously did in the spring and summer). The second is beyond our control, and since the pandemic has only been going on six months we don't really know what will happen, and for that matter we don't really know why (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/flu-comes-back-every-year-will-coronavirus/) some viruses are seasonal in the first place, which makes it hard to guess.
But with the passing of the equinox I thought it would be worth taking a look.
We know that summer isn't enough to stop the virus - if Arizona Texas and Florida summers couldn't manage it there's just no chance.
We also know winter isn't enough to keep the virus going - New Zealand drove it to zero in June, which due to their cute antipodean seasons is midwinter.
And we know via the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/whoAllregt_cl37.html) that our measures have been enormously effective against a definitely seasonal virus in influenza:
https://imgur.com/DXSomlr.png
I've posted this comparison between this year and an average of the last three years before, highlighting how we saved ~10,000 lives from the flu with the lockdowns, and we did! That's the highlighted in green portion, and it's great. But right now I want to zoom in and enhance on the right half:
https://imgur.com/3mL0cun.png
We should be having about 250 new flu cases a week, instead we're at about 10.
We have been at that value since early August, when we should have been having about 100 new flu cases a week. Flu season never peaks in September, but it sure as heck starts kicking into gear, and this year it hasn't. At all.
We were also at about 10 new flu cases a week in late May before the June flare-up. Let me say that again: we had June flare-ups in coronavirus and flu, and when we went back to stronger mitigation measures we knocked them both down.
.
The only reasonable conclusion is that our mitigation is stronger than the seasons. Coronavirus may be seasonal, but we can stop it either way - my fastball is better than my curveball, but I can't get either past Stan Musial if he takes a swing.
Now, it's important to distinguish between the pandemic worsening because in the winter we will continue giving up on masks distancing etc., versus the pandemic worsening in the winter just because it's winter. The first is already happening and we know it will continue until we hit a point where enough Americans won't tolerate the higher level of deaths (as they previously did in the spring and summer). The second is beyond our control, and since the pandemic has only been going on six months we don't really know what will happen, and for that matter we don't really know why (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/flu-comes-back-every-year-will-coronavirus/) some viruses are seasonal in the first place, which makes it hard to guess.
But with the passing of the equinox I thought it would be worth taking a look.
We know that summer isn't enough to stop the virus - if Arizona Texas and Florida summers couldn't manage it there's just no chance.
We also know winter isn't enough to keep the virus going - New Zealand drove it to zero in June, which due to their cute antipodean seasons is midwinter.
And we know via the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/whoAllregt_cl37.html) that our measures have been enormously effective against a definitely seasonal virus in influenza:
https://imgur.com/DXSomlr.png
I've posted this comparison between this year and an average of the last three years before, highlighting how we saved ~10,000 lives from the flu with the lockdowns, and we did! That's the highlighted in green portion, and it's great. But right now I want to zoom in and enhance on the right half:
https://imgur.com/3mL0cun.png
We should be having about 250 new flu cases a week, instead we're at about 10.
We have been at that value since early August, when we should have been having about 100 new flu cases a week. Flu season never peaks in September, but it sure as heck starts kicking into gear, and this year it hasn't. At all.
We were also at about 10 new flu cases a week in late May before the June flare-up. Let me say that again: we had June flare-ups in coronavirus and flu, and when we went back to stronger mitigation measures we knocked them both down.
.
The only reasonable conclusion is that our mitigation is stronger than the seasons. Coronavirus may be seasonal, but we can stop it either way - my fastball is better than my curveball, but I can't get either past Stan Musial if he takes a swing.