On Time

[Latrinsorm]

Suppose we're pushing a ball up hill.
It slips and starts rolling down hill, but we catch up to it and stop it.
If we let go, the ball won't politely go to the top of the hill, it'll start rolling down hill again.
Once we stop the ball, we have to keep pushing, all the way to the top, without letting go.

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Texas!

Here are the new cases and new deaths by week in Texas:

https://imgur.com/GAOT0og.png

And here they are with the deaths shifted by three weeks; i.e., the deaths that were reported in the week starting 8/3 are graphed on 7/13:

https://imgur.com/VziARmZ.png

Lines up really well! When cases change, deaths change in the same way soon after. We also know Texas took serious action around the turn of July, and their peak will either be last week or this week (they'll be really close either way), so the slightly over a month timeline still holds for action to deaths.

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Unfortunately, after doubling from 05/04 to 07/13, our testing (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/08142020/public-health-lab.html) has decreased over the past month to about 75% of peak. This is how Texas posts decreasing cases and increasing (https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/) positivity rates, and since their positivity rate was already top three in the nation this is what we call in the biz "a bad thing".

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Cases increasing is the worst, because we know deaths will increase proportionally soon after.
But cases plateaued at a high level is still bad, because we know deaths will stay the same too.
And cases plateaued with decreased testing is REALLY bad, because we can expect that cases are actually increasing, which means we know deaths will increase soon too.
This after it took over a month of sacrifice just to stop the downward momentum.

The ball will never stop rolling downhill when we let it go.
It's a ball.
It rolls downhill.

Will we ever stop letting go?

[Latrinsorm]

And just to put a pin in this, over the past two weeks Texas and Florida have been very stable in 217 and 169 deaths per day respectively, Texas almost eerily so: their rolling seven day average has been no higher than 219 and no lower than 207. New York state, as you may have heard, has had many many many more deaths than those states and per John Hopkins as of August 15th they sit at 28,185 compared to Texas' 10,268 and Florida's 9,345.

There are 20 weeks left in 2020.
If all three states stay at these stable death rates, by the end of the year there will be a total of
28,965 in New York (currently suffering a crisp five and a half coronavirus deaths per day),
33,025 in Florida, and
40,628 in Texas.

Stopping the increase is a crucial first step, but it is only a first step. We must follow the example of New York and drive the number down practically to 0 to have any hope of safe reopening.

The virus does not take weekends off.
The virus does not take vacations.
The virus does not get bored.
The virus does not give up.

We can't either.

[Gelston]

Oh good, cases are decreasing.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

I can't believe the virus doesn't take weekends off or get vacations or be bored or give up.

[Latrinsorm]

Oh good, cases are decreasing.

Confirmed cases are not decreasing as fast as tests are, which is why Texas is not seeing decreasing positivity, which means their actual new cases are probably staying around the same.

We just went through this when confirmed cases weren't increasing as fast as tests were, remember? And remember how the positivity nerds were proven incontrovertibly correct? You 'member?

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

Confirmed cases are not decreasing as fast as tests are, which is why Texas is not seeing decreasing positivity, which means their actual new cases are probably staying around the same.

We just went through this when confirmed cases weren't increasing as fast as tests were, remember? And remember how the positivity nerds were proven incontrovertibly correct? You 'member?

I actually don't remember any of that. I don't read your posts when it's more than 2 or 3 sentences usually.

What's your next "On" topic? You've got a planned rollout of your On topics right?

[Tgo01]

Cases increasing is the worst, because we know deaths will increase proportionally soon after.

Except they don't. Some states *cough*NY*cough*, have fewer cases than Texas yet they have more deaths, so no the number of deaths don't "increase proportionally" to the number of cases.

Do you even math, bro?

Between this and your theory that this virus has a 100% infection rate and a 2% hospitalization rate means one person in a class of 50 will be hospitalized has me seriously questioning.

[Latrinsorm]

I actually don't remember any of that. I don't read your posts when it's more than 2 or 3 sentences usually.

What's your next "On" topic? You've got a planned rollout of your On topics right?

For a refresher (Latrinsorm-free!) check out this thread (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?124742-Move-the-Republican-Convention) from early June, it refers to North Carolina and has all the greatest hits.
-cases aren't rising
-okay cases are rising, but it's because we're testing more
-okay hospitalizations are rising too, but it's a lie
-and New York is worse anyway
-and it's the protesters' fault!!!
State government takes action end of June when the rise in actual cases has become undeniable.
New cases peak two weeks later (mid July).
New deaths peak three weeks later (early August).

It would be funny how repeatedly this script is followed to the letter (and yet challenged in exactly the same way every time)... if tens of thousands of Americans hadn't died needlessly (and tens of thousands more weren't going to again in the future).

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No plan. I think one on therapeutics will be in order depending on how far down the oleandrine rabbit hole we go, but maybe people learned their lesson from the hydroxychloroquine snake oil, we'll see.

[Latrinsorm]

Except they don't. Some states *cough*NY*cough*, have fewer cases than Texas yet they have more deaths, so no the number of deaths don't "increase proportionally" to the number of cases.

Do you even math, bro?

Between this and your theory that this virus has a 100% infection rate and a 2% hospitalization rate means one person in a class of 50 will be hospitalized has me seriously questioning.

New York does not have fewer cases than Texas. New York has fewer confirmed cases, which we know is not telling because at the time of New York's outbreak we were doing about 50k tests per day and at the time of Texas' outbreak (which happened months later) we were doing about 800k tests per day, further confirmed by seroprevalence studies in New York. This is why the "soon after" clause and present tense is important in my statement - the number of tests doesn't change that rapidly right now, so right now an increase in confirmed cases will in fact be followed shortly by an increase in deaths. We saw it in Texas, we saw it in Florida, as noted above we even saw it in less notorious cases like North Carolina.

This has been explained to you many times, and I'm aware you only keep harping on it because you're arguing in bad faith. I expect nothing better from you until the people pulling your strings decide to let you do so. The school outbreaks probably won't be enough, but I figure the election should be. We'll see! :)

[Tgo01]

New York does not have fewer cases than Texas. New York has fewer confirmed cases, which we know is not telling because at the time of New York's outbreak we were doing about 50k tests per day and at the time of Texas' outbreak (which happened months later) we were doing about 800k tests per day, further confirmed by seroprevalence studies in New York. This is why the "soon after" clause and present tense is important in my statement - the number of tests doesn't change that rapidly right now, so right now an increase in confirmed cases will in fact be followed shortly by an increase in deaths. We saw it in Texas, we saw it in Florida, as noted above we even saw it in less notorious cases like North Carolina.

This has been explained to you many times, and I'm aware you only keep harping on it because you're arguing in bad faith. I expect nothing better from you until the people pulling your strings decide to let you do so. The school outbreaks probably won't be enough, but I figure the election should be. We'll see! :)

Is this really your excuse for your statement of "Cases increasing is the worst, because we know deaths will increase proportionally soon after."

Bro, don't bro. Come on, bro.

[Gelston]

Confirmed cases are not decreasing as fast as tests are, which is why Texas is not seeing decreasing positivity, which means their actual new cases are probably staying around the same.

We just went through this when confirmed cases weren't increasing as fast as tests were, remember? And remember how the positivity nerds were proven incontrovertibly correct? You 'member?

Your charts have the little bars going down, so that means they are decreasing.

As for this remember stuff, I never got involved in the discussion cesspool of the brand new disease experts. I don't know why I've involved myself with this one actually.

Later.