On Trends

[Latrinsorm]

covidexitstrategy.org is the site I've been pulling maps from. They originally offered three categories: trending better (green), making progress (yellow), trending poorly (red). Over a month we went from this...

https://imgur.com/7szMbo5.png

...to this...

https://imgur.com/EUANmbS.png

...and so they recalibrated their color scale to both add a worse category of uncontrolled spread (bruised red) and to make it easier to get into the yellow category by renaming it "caution warranted". Here's four weeks of that starting the day it was implemented:

https://imgur.com/VFt7Z3e.png

From 4 trending better down to 3,
from 18 caution warranted down to 6,
from 11 trending poorly down to 9, which of course leaves
from 17 uncontrolled spread up to 32(!!!)

Even more concerning, exactly one state showed improvement: Vermont improved from caution warranted up to trending better.
Every other state stayed the same or got worse... over a month!
Every single state seeing uncontrolled spread on 07/10 was still seeing uncontrolled spread on 07/31.

.

The good news is that cases are starting to plateau so it's unlikely we see this kind of national bad trend in the immediate future. It's more likely we'll see some states getting better and some states getting worse with little net change in the number in a given category, and hopefully we can start a national good trend in a few weeks.

More good news is cases are starting to plateau because hotspots took drastic measures to address them. For example Texas shut down bars AND river-rafting operations :O at the end of June and mandated masks statewide a week later in response to weekly new cases going from 11k to 13k to 24k to 37k - the system works! At that time weekly new deaths had increased for three straight weeks and were all the way up to 244. They have since increased for another four weeks (and are going to increase this week too) to the point where Texas has twice seen that many deaths in a day... in the past week. N.B.: You may have seen a report of 700 deaths on a day this week but that was not the number of deaths reported on that day, Texas slightly changed their reporting and those 700 were catch-ups from the past.

The system works, but it works very, very, very slowly. It takes a very, very, very long time for change in deaths to even catch up with change in cases let alone our responses. This will hopefully be Texas' last week of increases, but if they had taken action when cases had increased to 24k instead of 37k, they would have seen 1900 deaths in July instead of 3600... and since they'd be declining from such a lower peak they'd see far fewer deaths in August too.

States are going to reopen again, and cases are going to go up again. What we all need to work together on is presenting a united front to our state and local governments that increases in cases always, always, always comes with a proportionate increase in deaths. It's not testing, it's not the weather, it's not a one-off holiday event, it's not nursing homes, it's not age groups... it's inevitable. When cases go up, we must go back. Thousands of Texans are going to die because of one week's delay.

Every day counts.

[Tgo01]

What action should Texas have taken? And so help me if you say shut down the entire state.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

Seriously, someone call the police for a welfare check on Latrin.

[Latrinsorm]

What action should Texas have taken? And so help me if you say shut down the entire state.

They should have taken the actions they did take a week earlier, saving thousands of lives.

You use the fire extinguisher when the fire starts. You don't wait and see if the fire puts itself out. You don't wait for it to kill a bunch of people.

You see a fire, you put it out.

Simple.

[Tgo01]

They should have taken the actions they did take a week earlier, saving thousands of lives.

You use the fire extinguisher when the fire starts. You don't wait and see if the fire puts itself out. You don't wait for it to kill a bunch of people.

You see a fire, you put it out.

Simple.

So you're a hindsight is 20/20 kind of guy.

[Latrinsorm]

So you're a hindsight is 20/20 kind of guy.

I pointed out this phenomenon, repeatedly (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End), before it happened (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2159780#post2159780). I had graphs and everything!

But you wanted us to note that deaths were significantly trailing cases, how clear it was that state failures drove the March/April spike in deaths, not the cases themselves... and yet here we are, with Texas seeing seven times the daily deaths soon after Texas saw seven times the daily cases. 66,000 new cases the week beginning 07/13 vs. 9,000 05/25, on track for 1100 new deaths this week vs. 150 05/25.

The questions you should really be asking are which side you'll take the next time cases start going up, because they're going to, and whether next time you'll believe the people telling you to ignore your lying eyes, because they're going to too.

[Tgo01]

I pointed out this phenomenon, repeatedly (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End), before it happened (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2159780#post2159780). I had graphs and everything!

But you wanted us to note that deaths were significantly trailing cases, how clear it was that state failures drove the March/April spike in deaths, not the cases themselves... and yet here we are, with Texas seeing seven times the daily deaths soon after Texas saw seven times the daily cases. 66,000 new cases the week beginning 07/13 vs. 9,000 05/25, on track for 1100 new deaths this week vs. 150 05/25.

The questions you should really be asking are which side you'll take the next time cases start going up, because they're going to, and whether next time you'll believe the people telling you to ignore your lying eyes, because they're going to too.

You mean that thread you made almost 5 weeks ago? I guess you were wrong until you were right.

Have you come up with a more realistic solution for what the US should do? Or do we still shut the entire country down for 4 months?

[Latrinsorm]

You mean that thread you made almost 5 weeks ago? I guess you were wrong until you were right.

Have you come up with a more realistic solution for what the US should do? Or do we still shut the entire country down for 4 months?

The week I made that thread there were 211 deaths in Texas.
The next week, 244.
The next week, 555.
The next week, 766.
The next week, 1080.
This week (so far), 1168.
Next week won't be as big a jump, but it certainly won't be a big decline.

I was right from the start: "it [was] already too late." It isn't hindsight, it isn't guesswork, it isn't even a feat of intelligence, but I can't stress this enough - the point isn't whether I was right or wrong. The point is: what will we do next time? Cases are going down but they're going to go up again, and people will tell us to trot out the same completely destroyed lies to dismiss them... but as we've seen multiple times Americans won't tolerate the levels of death inaction eventually causes, so politicians will eventually come around to mandates, shutdowns, bailouts, socialism, etc.

How many times do we have to go through this before eventually becomes proactively?

How many thousands do we have to bury needlessly before we accept reality?

The entire country of Germany saw 168 coronavirus deaths in the past month.
They have 6% unemployment.
They haven't seen hyperinflation.
They haven't seen mass starvation.
They haven't seen any problem whatsoever that we haven't seen many times worse.

They were right.
They are still right.
They will remain right no matter how many times we smugly chuckle about nursing homes, sagely remind how one size doesn't fit all, sensibly warn against printing money.

Next time, let's try being right.

What do you say?

[Tgo01]

You saw the number of cases rising in Texas and concluded the number of deaths would eventually go up too? That is pretty impressive.

I do believe you were acting like Texas was the next NY. Has Texas become the next NY? No because they have more cases than NY yet fewer than a quarter of the deaths. Remember when you mocked me for saying Cuomo's failed nursing home policies led to a high death count in NY and were using data from Arizona, Texas, and Florida to prove I was wrong? 5 weeks later are you going to now admit I was right and Cuomo failed NY hard?

You can do it, Latrin. Do the right thing! Admit Cuomo is a failure of a politician!

[Latrinsorm]

You saw the number of cases rising in Texas and concluded the number of deaths would eventually go up too? That is pretty impressive.

I do believe you were acting like Texas was the next NY. Has Texas become the next NY? No because they have more cases than NY yet fewer than a quarter of the deaths. Remember when you mocked me for saying Cuomo's failed nursing home policies led to a high death count in NY and were using data from Arizona, Texas, and Florida to prove I was wrong? 5 weeks later are you going to now admit I was right and Cuomo failed NY hard?

You can do it, Latrin. Do the right thing! Admit Cuomo is a failure of a politician!

They have more confirmed cases, but in neither state are all cases confirmed. We know this because the virus doesn't have 2% mortality (which is what they're seeing in Texas), it has 1% mortality. Ergo, there are about twice as many cases in Texas as are confirmed. We also know this because New York had an eight-fold (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2160063#post2160063) under-representation in confirmed cases compared to seroprevalence testing in April. And it makes sense these numbers are so far apart! We were terribly under-testing in the early months of this pandemic, we are doing better now but "better" doesn't mean "perfect"; even in August, anyone who wants a test can't get a test.

They also have fewer deaths per capita. This makes sense too, because New York's peak in deaths came the week of April 6th, about a month after any preventative measures whatsoever were taken. Even in the absence of state and federal guidance, many people since March 6th have been masking distancing washing etc. that weren't before March 6th, which makes for a significant bulwark against the spread of the virus. This is in part why I never said or "acted like" Texas was "the next NY". The other part is, as said in the post immediately before this one, politicians always come around to preventative measures now, because people now know we can fight the virus, and know how.

I remember asking you (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2160135#post2160135) whether you would change your mind if another state reached the same per-capita peak, and you not answering. If you're that confident in your hypothesis it should be pretty easy to say "if another state reaches 40 daily deaths per million capita I will admit I was wrong about Cuomo" since you know it'll never happen.

I also remember making you aware of a tabulation of nursing home deaths completely independent of any state-provided information (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125554-On-Nursing-Homes&p=2164914#post2164914) unequivocally proving that New York's proportion of nursing home deaths is far below the national average, and unequivocally proving that the innuendo you'd so eagerly gobbled up was total bunk.

.

Now, if we've satisfied your need for backwards looking scorekeeping (which at this point I can only assume is a masochistic one), perhaps we can return to my forward looking question.

A month or two from now new cases will start going up again.

The people tugging your strings will tell you "wellll new deaths aren't going up yet" "welllll what about nursing homes" "wellllllll it's not realistic to shut down the country" and all the other embarrassingly lazy lies they've foisted on you for months, and it should be noted that we already know they won't have the decency to even make up any new embarrassingly lazy lies for you.

Will you repeat them, again?

Or will you acknowledge that we should take action immediately so as to avoid thousands more needless deaths?

Will, in short, the third time be the charm?

[Tgo01]

Only in Latrin land can you look at two states, one with more confirmed cases and far fewer deaths than the other one, and say that the state with fewer deaths is a failure yet the state with more deaths is a success.

I also recall telling you I do take this virus seriously but that doesn't mean I live in Crazy World where I think shutting down the country again for 4+ months and printing up money is the way to go.

[Latrinsorm]

Only in Latrin land can you look at two states, one with more confirmed cases and far fewer deaths than the other one, and say that the state with fewer deaths is a failure yet the state with more deaths is a success.

That's not what I said.


I also recall telling you I do take this virus seriously but that doesn't mean I live in Crazy World where I think shutting down the country again for 4+ months and printing up money is the way to go.

And if most people thought like you millions would die needlessly.

Luckily only some people think like you, so only a few hundred thousand will die needlessly.

Thank Heaven for small favors, I suppose.

[Tgo01]

The daily death rate in Texas has been flat at 200-300 or fewer deaths per day for 12 days now. Wasn't Texas supposed to be the next NY with their daily death totals doubling every 2 days until it reached 1000+ deaths a day?

Oh yeah and Arizona never broke 200 deaths a day and Florida's deaths never broke 300 and have been flat at 250 or fewer for almost 2 weeks now, both states were also supposed to be the next NY.

Where all the fear porners at now?

When are any of you going to admit that NY so far has been a unique situation and maybe....JUST MAYBE....it has something to do with Cuomo's order to murder old and frail people living in nursing homes?

[Latrinsorm]

The daily death rate in Texas has been flat at 200-300 or fewer deaths per day for 12 days now. Wasn't Texas supposed to be the next NY with their daily death totals doubling every 2 days until it reached 1000+ deaths a day?

Oh yeah and Arizona never broke 200 deaths a day and Florida's deaths never broke 300 and have been flat at 250 or fewer for almost 2 weeks now, both states were also supposed to be the next NY.

Where all the fear porners at now?

When are any of you going to admit that NY so far has been a unique situation and maybe....JUST MAYBE....it has something to do with Cuomo's order to murder old and frail people living in nursing homes?

In my first post (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End) on this subject on June 30th I said the governor of Texas was "coming around", noted (twice! (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2161488#post2161488)) in mid-July that that turnaround being at "full speed" (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2161249#post2161249) would prevent us from seeing the death tolls we'd seen earlier, and in a larger sense I said it was inevitable (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2160368#post2160368) enough Republicans would take real action, that my whole point was we should take action ASAP as possible rather than wait for deaths to rise, and that we should remember this lesson the next time cases go up, because they will.

I know you're very pleased with this "the next NY" bit but when I explicitly and repeatedly said these states were NOT going to get there it's kind of embarrassing to watch. I will also note that I specifically anticipated (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125555-On-Plateaus) this "flat deaths!" baloney over a week ago, and that we are still on track for over 440,000 deaths, and that I gave you the actual explanation (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125554-On-Nursing-Homes) for why New York's situation appears unique at first glance.

Of course, this is all to be expected when even after the Trump administration (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125554-On-Nursing-Homes&p=2164764#post2164764) has unequivocally disputed (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125554-On-Nursing-Homes&p=2164914#post2164914) your claim about Governor Cuomo you keep screaming about it - because you have given yourself ever so wholly to falsehoods, you can't even consider the possibility of falsifiability in any particular case, so you literally cannot refrain from regurgitating this talking point.

Which is a shame - you are capable of independent thought, and all it would cost is your servility to people who demonstrably don't care if you live or die.

[Tgo01]

When are any of you going to admit that NY so far has been a unique situation and maybe....JUST MAYBE....it has something to do with Cuomo's order to murder old and frail people living in nursing homes?


In my first post (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End) on this subject on June 30th I said the governor of Texas was "coming around", noted (twice! (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2161488#post2161488)) in mid-July that that turnaround being at "full speed" (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2161249#post2161249) would prevent us from seeing the death tolls we'd seen earlier, and in a larger sense I said it was inevitable (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2160368#post2160368) enough Republicans would take real action, that my whole point was we should take action ASAP as possible rather than wait for deaths to rise, and that we should remember this lesson the next time cases go up, because they will.

I know you're very pleased with this "the next NY" bit but when I explicitly and repeatedly said these states were NOT going to get there it's kind of embarrassing to watch. I will also note that I specifically anticipated (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125555-On-Plateaus) this "flat deaths!" baloney over a week ago, and that we are still on track for over 440,000 deaths, and that I gave you the actual explanation (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125554-On-Nursing-Homes) for why New York's situation appears unique at first glance.

Of course, this is all to be expected when even after the Trump administration (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125554-On-Nursing-Homes&p=2164764#post2164764) has unequivocally disputed (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125554-On-Nursing-Homes&p=2164914#post2164914) your claim about Governor Cuomo you keep screaming about it - because you have given yourself ever so wholly to falsehoods, you can't even consider the possibility of falsifiability in any particular case, so you literally cannot refrain from regurgitating this talking point.

Which is a shame - you are capable of independent thought, and all it would cost is your servility to people who demonstrably don't care if you live or die.

I'll admit I just skimmed your post, but did you admit that so far NY has been a unique situation and maybe it has to do with Cuomo's orders to murder old and sick people living in nursing homes? If not what would it take for you to finally admit that?

[Latrinsorm]

I'll admit I just skimmed your post, but did you admit that so far NY has been a unique situation and maybe it has to do with Cuomo's orders to murder old and sick people living in nursing homes? If not what would it take for you to finally admit that?

If New York had a significantly above average percentage of deaths in nursing homes (or even in older age brackets).

Since they in point of fact have significantly below average percentages of deaths in both those demographics, there is no reason to believe Governor Cuomo or any other New York state actor caused nursing home deaths.

With that hypothesis conclusively disproven, we still have a lot more deaths in New York. Why?

Well, we know for a fact (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125554-On-Nursing-Homes&p=2164738#post2164738) New York state's confirmed cases underrepresented actual cases eight-fold and therefore their case fatality rate (deaths / case) is not significantly different than any other state (or, indeed, anywhere else in the world).

And we know for a fact that while Adam Silver led the way in shutting down the country in mid March, mitigation measures did not become understood and widespread until well into April (https://cbs6albany.com/news/coronavirus/nys-face-mask-mandate-how-to-make-sure-youre-prepared), and we know that even though Texas has a Republican governor it has over ten million Democrats (more than Illinois or Pennsylvania or any state outside of CA/FL/NY), so by the time the disease reached Texas a significant % of Texans (including many Rs too of course) were already practicing mitigation measures which held growth to far lower rates until their state government took action.

Think of it this way. A forest burns down. Another forest over can see that, and some (not all, not even most) trees think "that looks really awful, let's be fireproof". When the fire hits the other forest, the blaze doesn't spread as quickly, because every third tree or so is much less likely to catch. You can see this in the real world with Finland and their rakes... er, roads.

.

I'm not sure what about a global pandemic indicated to you that you could skim information about it and have a good bead on things, but so far it's going extraordinarily poorly for you. Take a few minutes! It'll save you having to skim the same response the next time you say the same wrong thing, at least. ;D

[Tgo01]

If New York had a significantly above average percentage of deaths in nursing homes (or even in older age brackets).

Oh right, you're relying on data that has been manipulated by the state of NY to cover up exactly this. I forgot about that.

[Latrinsorm]

Oh right, you're relying on data that has been manipulated by the state of NY to cover up exactly this. I forgot about that.

"The data posted by CMS on the COVID-19 Nursing Home Data website is reported by nursing homes and collected at the federal level by the CDC through the NHSN system. This system is separate from state level COVID-19 data collection efforts."

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

Anyone send a welfare check to chicken little's house yet? Poor mental health is a very serious thing.

[Methais]

Anyone send a welfare check to chicken little's house yet? Poor mental health is a very serious thing.

I thought you were doing it?

[Latrinsorm]

As predicted here, we haven't seen the continued trend into bruised red, and we've even seen some folks improve all the way to "trending poorly":

https://imgur.com/HmsW2r2.png

We tried a bunch of trick plays and razzle dazzle and ended up down 40.
We established our ground game, stayed patient, scored a "touch-down", and forced a punt.
We're down 33.
It's not even halftime.
So with a lot of work and a lot of luck, we can still win this.

The ball is in our hands.

Will we fumble?

[Methais]

As predicted here, we haven't seen the continued trend into bruised red, and we've even seen some folks improve all the way to "trending poorly":

https://imgur.com/HmsW2r2.png

We tried a bunch of trick plays and razzle dazzle and ended up down 40.
We established our ground game, stayed patient, scored a "touch-down", and forced a punt.
We're down 33.
It's not even halftime.
So with a lot of work and a lot of luck, we can still win this.

The ball is in our hands.

Will we fumble?

Oh.

[Tgo01]

"The data posted by CMS on the COVID-19 Nursing Home Data website is reported by nursing homes and collected at the federal level by the CDC through the NHSN system. This system is separate from state level COVID-19 data collection efforts."

New York’s true nursing home death toll cloaked in secrecy (https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f?utm_source=Twitte r&utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow)


New York’s coronavirus death toll in nursing homes, already among the highest in the nation, could actually be a significant undercount. Unlike every other state with major outbreaks, New York only counts residents who died on nursing home property and not those who were transported to hospitals and died there.


“That’s a problem, bro,” state Sen. Gustavo Rivera, a Democrat, told New York Health Commissioner Howard Zucker during a legislative hearing on nursing homes earlier this month. “It seems, sir, that in this case you are choosing to define it differently so that you can look better.”


Boston University geriatrics expert Thomas Perls said it doesn’t make sense that nursing home resident deaths as a percentage of total deaths in many nearby states are more than triple what was reported in New York.

“Whatever the cause, there is no way New York could be truly at 20%,” Perls said.

A running tally by The Associated Press shows that more than 68,200 residents and staff at nursing homes and long-term facilities across the nation have died from the coronarivus, out of more than 163,000 overall deaths.

And the part you should really pay attention to:


How big a difference could it make? Since May, federal regulators have required nursing homes to submit data on coronavirus deaths each week, whether or not residents died in the facility or at a hospital. Because the requirement came after the height of New York’s outbreak, the available data is relatively small. According to the federal data, roughly a fifth of the state’s homes reported resident deaths from early June to mid July — a tally of 323 dead, 65 percent higher than the state’s count of 195 during that time period.

The federal data isn't complete because Cuomo murdered most of his victims before May, prior to when the federal government required nursing homes to submit data to them. The federal numbers suggest the death toll from nursing homes is 65% higher than what the state is admitting to.

Any other excuses you have to offer up, Latrin?

[Latrinsorm]

New York’s true nursing home death toll cloaked in secrecy (https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f?utm_source=Twitte r&utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow)







And the part you should really pay attention to:



The federal data isn't complete because Cuomo murdered most of his victims before May, prior to when the federal government required nursing homes to submit data to them. The federal numbers suggest the death toll from nursing homes is 65% higher than what the state is admitting to.

Any other excuses you have to offer up, Latrin?

You were fooled four ways here.

First, "65% higher" tells you absolutely nothing about where New York stands compared to every other state. But I can! And will, of course. 65% more nursing home deaths since the start of the pandemic would put New York state at 23 nursing home COVID deaths per 100 COVID deaths, which would be the 36th highest rate in the Union - in other words, still well below average. To knock off #1 Kentucky, New York state would have had to underreport nursing home deaths by 450%, or almost seven times. I told you before, there's a reason none of the sources breathlessly telling you how bad New York state was ever once gave you a frame of reference - they knew full well that looking at the number in context would completely deflate their accusations.

Second, 65% higher is simply not correct. The CMS data is right here (https://data.cms.gov/Special-Programs-Initiatives-COVID-19-Nursing-Home/COVID-19-Nursing-Home-Dataset/s2uc-8wxp), as I've linked to you before, and comparing them to NY for the time period in question shows 475 to 618, or 30%.

Third, neither of those numbers tell you anything because it doesn't show you what the discrepancies are in any other state. For example, in July Florida reported 768 nursing home resident deaths where the CMS data had 916, or 19% underreporting. Texas did a much better job with reports of 946 against CMS 1030, only a 9% underreport. As I've explained to you many times before, every state does exactly what New York does, which is why you've never once seen an underreporting % for any other state... why not? If New York was underreporting by 65% and no other state was underreporting by more than 1%, don't you think they would have shown you that?

Fourth, if I require weekly reports in July then say I want daily reports in August, it would be correct to state I started requiring daily reports in August, and laughably incorrect to infer from that statement that I received no reports or data on prior periods. In this particular case, the first report required by CMS from facilities and not states was not a week's worth but all data prior to May 17th, which is why they record 24,029 nursing home deaths in their "first week" and 3,511 the week after. CMS is run by a Trump appointee, has done a nursing home death count completely independent from state governments, and they have unequivocally proven there's absolutely nothing to this accusation.

.

There's no cloak.
There's not even a domino mask.
The hard numbers are right there for anyone who wants to look at them.
Don't believe me! Look them up yourself! They're all publicly available, I'm not hacking the Gibsons over here.

Or you can keep gobbling up the words telling you what you want to hear.

[Keller]

Tgo taking so many Ls he may have to change his user name to Tg LoL!

[Tgo01]

First, "65% higher" tells you absolutely nothing about where New York stands compared to every other state. But I can! And will, of course. 65% more nursing home deaths since the start of the pandemic would put New York state at 23 nursing home COVID deaths per 100 COVID deaths, which would be the 36th highest rate in the Union - in other words, still well below average.

It's hilarious this is what you took away from this.

Not the fact that the federal data is incomplete, not the fact that even the AP is calling out NY's attempt to obfuscate the real numbers. You just pick out one data set from one time period (the time period which was months after NY's worst time of the pandemic), and you do the math to calculate that NY still isn't that bad compared to other states.

Bitch, are you for real? At this point Cuomo could go on live TV and admit that he tried to murder as many old people as possible in an attempt to make Trump look bad and you would STILL be carrying his water.

I almost forgot how much of a troll you can be.

[Tgo01]

Tgo taking so many Ls he may have to change his user name to Tg LoL!

Yup that's me. I proved NY was hiding the real death toll from nursing homes, so Latrin went with federal data, I proved that the federal data was unreliable, so Latrin deflected like he always does when backed into a corner, and the murderer-wannabe Keller say I'm the one losing here.

See now at least Latrin is at worst a troll, at best you're a psychopath who enjoys the thought of people dying because they happen to live in an area that as a whole doesn't vote the way you want them to vote. So enjoy being a huge piece of shit.

[Latrinsorm]

It's hilarious this is what you took away from this.

Not the fact that the federal data is incomplete,

It's not, and I'll say it again in case you missed it skimming again.

The first report required by CMS from facilities and not states was not a week's worth but all data prior to May 17th, which is why they record 24,029 nursing home deaths in their "first week" and 3,511 the week after. CMS is run by a Trump appointee, has done a nursing home death count completely independent from state governments, and they have unequivocally proven there's absolutely nothing to this accusation.

[Tgo01]

It's not, and I'll say it again in case you missed it skimming again.

The first report required by CMS from facilities and not states was not a week's worth but all data prior to May 17th, which is why they record 24,029 nursing home deaths in their "first week" and 3,511 the week after. CMS is run by a Trump appointee, has done a nursing home death count completely independent from state governments, and they have unequivocally proven there's absolutely nothing to this accusation.


Another group of numbers also suggests an undercount. State health department surveys show 21,000 nursing home beds are lying empty this year, 13,000 more than expected — an increase of almost double the official state nursing home death tally.


Boston University geriatrics expert Thomas Perls said it doesn’t make sense that nursing home resident deaths as a percentage of total deaths in many nearby states are more than triple what was reported in New York.

“Whatever the cause, there is no way New York could be truly at 20%,” Perls said.


A running tally by The Associated Press shows that more than 68,600 residents and staff at nursing homes and long-term facilities across the nation have died from the coronarivus, out of more than 164,000 overall deaths.

For all 43 states that break out nursing home data, resident deaths make up 44% of total COVID deaths in their states, according to data from the Kaiser Family Foundation. Assuming the same proportion held in New York, that would translate to more than 11,000 nursing home deaths.

Yeah I'm gonna go ahead and go by this and not some random person on the PC. kthxbai!

[Latrinsorm]

Yeah I'm gonna go ahead and go by this and not some random person on the PC. kthxbai!

I've explicitly told you NOT to go by what I say, but to follow the links and look at the numbers for yourself. CMS is not some made up thing, Seema Verma is getting paid good money to do this stuff. All you have to do is for five minutes put aside your preconceived notions and look at a few numbers. Do you need a Boston University expert to do arithmetic for you? Do you need the Associated Press to tell you what rank a number is in a list? I taught physics to a lot of kids including journalism majors, trust me when I tell you they do not tend to be math savvy.

[Tgo01]

I've explicitly told you NOT to go by what I say, but to follow the links and look at the numbers for yourself.

Yes, let's look at CMS.

Specifically this part:


Facilities may opt to report cumulative data retrospectively back to January 1, 2020. Therefore, some facilities may be reporting higher numbers of cases/deaths compared to other facilities, due to their retrospective reporting. Numbers for Week Ending 05/24/2020 may include reporting for any time between 01/01/2020 through 05/24/2020. Reporting for subsequent weeks is on a weekly basis.

Remember when I said the federal data you are relying on was incomplete and you said "The first report required by CMS from facilities and not states was not a week's worth but all data prior to May 17th"?

How does that match up with what I quoted there? Oh right, it doesn't. YOU used the word "required", CMS used the words "may opt." You do know this means there is a huge chance we have incomplete data like I said right?

Oh but it gets better!


We also note that CMS has authority over Medicare/Medicaid Certified Long Term Care facilities (also known as nursing homes) and does not oversee other types of senior living centers, such as assisted living communities. Therefore, only data for nursing homes is posted.

What's this? MORE incomplete data?

If only there were a more localized government...like perhaps on a state wide level...that could have been collecting this data from the beginning and been honest about the data instead of obfuscating the numbers to cover up their crimes?

Going to be fun seeing you deflect your way out of this one, Latrin. This should be good for a few laughs.

[Latrinsorm]

Yes, let's look at CMS.

Specifically this part:



Remember when I said the federal data you are relying on was incomplete and you said "The first report required by CMS from facilities and not states was not a week's worth but all data prior to May 17th"?

How does that match up with what I quoted there? Oh right, it doesn't. YOU used the word "required", CMS used the words "may opt." You do know this means there is a huge chance we have incomplete data like I said right?

It doesn't, and if you had looked at the numbers you would know why... which, of course, is why you haven't. What should trouble you is that the people pulling your strings haven't shown you those numbers either - they know they're giving you a cock and bull story. They know it for a fact, which means they must know for a fact you'll never dare to check them on it. So far it looks like they've got you pegged.


Oh but it gets better!



What's this? MORE incomplete data?

If only there were a more localized government...like perhaps on a state wide level...that could have been collecting this data from the beginning and been honest about the data instead of obfuscating the numbers to cover up their crimes?

Going to be fun seeing you deflect your way out of this one, Latrin. This should be good for a few laughs.

We have been talking explicitly and exclusively about nursing homes for weeks. If you had said "nursing homes and assisted living communities and other types of senior living centers", I would have helpfully provided you data that proved you wrong there instead. You would have ignored that too, but these are the breaks.

[Tgo01]

they know they're giving you a cock and bull story

You mean like you telling me the CMS data is 100% complete because they were "required" to report data prior to May 14th when in fact CMS states in plain English there was no such requirement?


We have been talking explicitly and exclusively about nursing homes for weeks. If you had said "nursing homes and assisted living communities and other types of senior living centers", I would have helpfully provided you data that proved you wrong there instead. You would have ignored that too, but these are the breaks.

You know "nursing home" is just an umbrella term that covers more than just "Medicare/Medicaid Certified Long Term Care facilities" right? Of course you know this but as per usual all you have are deflections when your bullshit is uncovered.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

For real, we need a Thunderdome.

[Latrinsorm]

You mean like you telling me the CMS data is 100% complete because they were "required" to report data prior to May 14th when in fact CMS states in plain English there was no such requirement?



You know "nursing home" is just an umbrella term that covers more than just "Medicare/Medicaid Certified Long Term Care facilities" right? Of course you know this but as per usual all you have are deflections when your bullshit is uncovered.

I don't mean what I didn't say. Like I said before, it's sad to see how far downhill you people have gone since I left.

Senior living center is the umbrella term, both in your source and in common usage (https://www.aplaceformom.com/planning-and-advice/articles/assisted-living-vs-nursing-homes): "Many people think of “senior living” and “nursing home” as synonymous, but over the past 30 years the terms have grown apart, and “nursing home” isn’t the senior care catch-all it used to be." That you would argue so many things your own sources prove wrong makes it clear there's no reaching past your partisan blinders, so I'll leave you to it.

[Astray]

For real, we need a Thunderdome.

With kill-pits?

[Tgo01]

I don't mean what I didn't say. Like I said before, it's sad to see how far downhill you people have gone since I left.

Senior living center is the umbrella term, both in your source and in common usage (https://www.aplaceformom.com/planning-and-advice/articles/assisted-living-vs-nursing-homes): "Many people think of “senior living” and “nursing home” as synonymous, but over the past 30 years the terms have grown apart, and “nursing home” isn’t the senior care catch-all it used to be." That you would argue so many things your own sources prove wrong makes it clear there's no reaching past your partisan blinders, so I'll leave you to it.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSG3C54G_vLXvZlWMslDIqv3-tZ90Z7wmYCLQ&usqp=CAU

[Methais]

I don't mean what I didn't say. Like I said before, it's sad to see how far downhill you people have gone since I left.


Oh sure sure Latrin...you learn how to buy bologna and salami and shit from a grocery store for the first time in your life in your 30s, and now suddenly you're better than everyone.

That learning how to grocery shop for the first time thing sure went to your head quickly, didn't it? Reported.

[Latrinsorm]

There's good news and bad news! Even though we've continued to decrease testing, an incredibly stupid and dangerous idea, cases have been decreasing even faster than the testing decrease in former hotspots like Arizona, Texas, Florida, California (although Texas' positivity remains troubling). Per covidexitstrategy.org we were at about 30 states seeing uncontrolled spread, 10 trending poorly, 5 caution warranted, and 5 trending better. Through August we're down to about 20 15 10 and 5 respectively. Granted, we've made no improvement in the number of states trending better, but at least we don't have quite so many trending quite so badly. That's good!

The bad news is we've been through this before, and it looks to be going about as badly this time as we take a look at our daily deaths by week:

https://imgur.com/bIdkLkO.png

We didn't have anywhere near as fast a decrease as we do an increase, and still don't.
It took us 3 weeks to go from 500 to 2000 daily deaths and 11 weeks to go from 2000 to 500.
It took us 4 weeks to go from 500 back up to 1100, and 4 weeks later we're only down to 900.

On top of tens of thousands more people dying than if we accomplished rapid declines, this also puts us in a much worse spot when the next increase happens, because a next increase will always happen - the virus will never go away on its own. This also isn't a global phenomenon, as we see in Germany (numbers scaled to our population levels):

https://imgur.com/FCFkRpn.png

We can also see that 100% is probably unattainable for the ratio between decrease and increase, but if we had accomplished Germany's 80% instead of our 50% we would have saved 45,000 lives through June, and then instead of doubling from 500 to 1000+ daily deaths we would have doubled from 15 to 30.

It's possible to fight this virus. We can do it. But we can only do it when we all work together.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

I was hoping for on Meatloaf.

I am disappoint.

[Latrinsorm]

As our cases begin rising again (last week was the highest since the week of 08/10), it's worth seeing again that it doesn't have to be this way: here are daily deaths per million capita for three states that got a lot of attention this summer...

https://imgur.com/RRY8CAB.png

It's possible for Americans to drive deaths all the way back down before reopening. New York and Arizona did it, Texas got close, and then there's Florida - and since we have yet to deploy Operation Bugs Bunny With a Hand Saw, infections there will inevitably spread to the rest of the country.

[Tgo01]

So weird how NY and NJ STILL have the most deaths per capita, and NY still has twice the number of deaths as the next highest state.

Not only that but Texas has a lower death rate than the US as a whole.

I thought everyone in Texas, Florida, and Arizona was supposed to be dead by now.

At what point do the fear porners apologize for trying to include everyone in their fetish? You're supposed to ask for consent you know!

It's crazy really. People like Latrin lost their minds over the possibility that Texas might be the next NY, yet here we are months later and people like him still aren't mad that NY is like NY.

[Latrinsorm]

So weird how NY and NJ STILL have the most deaths per capita, and NY still has twice the number of deaths as the next highest state.

Not only that but Texas has a lower death rate than the US as a whole.

I thought everyone in Texas, Florida, and Arizona was supposed to be dead by now.

At what point do the fear porners apologize for trying to include everyone in their fetish? You're supposed to ask for consent you know!

It's crazy really. People like Latrin lost their minds over the possibility that Texas might be the next NY, yet here we are months later and people like him still aren't mad that NY is like NY.

Actually in the OP I praised Texas for taking sensible action to address their hotspot, thereby halting and eventually reversing the increase in their cases, and I pointed that out again to you after your first ignorant response. I also predicted that deaths would go up proportionally, and sure enough after a 9-fold increase in new cases (peaking in the week starting 07/13) there was a 10-fold increase in new deaths (peaking in the week starting 08/10). What I never predicted was 'Texas will have the most deaths per capita in October' or 'everyone will be dead' or 'Texas will be the next New York'.

Everything I said would happen has happened.
Some things I did not say would happen have happened, some haven't.
That you so readily focus on the latter shows how impotent you were, are, and regrettably will remain against the actual mathematical claims I've offered.

And it doesn't have to be this way!

This is all just arithmetic. You can do arithmetic. You just have to WANT to, and specifically you have to want to more than you want to prostrate yourself before your indifferent masters and puppeteers.
As you'll see from my next post, they are doing everything they possibly can to prove to you they don't give a hoot about you.
What Stockholm Syndrome compels you to so slavishly pursue them?

[Latrinsorm]

As predicted, new daily cases have continued to rise: the 333,143 reported nationally for the week starting 10/05 are the most in a week since 08/10.

We know this is not a seasonal effect because influenza continues to be completely dominated by our shutdown measures: in a week where the past three years saw an average of 286 influenza cases reported to the CDC, this year saw only 17, almost exactly on the average of 15 cases per week we've seen since May.

We know we will see a proportional increase in deaths for at least three weeks, as deaths three weeks later has been very well correlated with cases since June:

https://imgur.com/QPfCVIC.png

All that's left to see is how high we will let deaths go before we take action - remember that Texas took action at the end of June and didn't see a peak in deaths until August.

[Tgo01]

In other news, some experts in WHO are speaking out against shutdowns and saying countries need to find other ways of dealing with the virus instead of shutdowns being their first response to outbreaks.

So weird. Who would have thought that shutting down the global economy for months wasn't very productive?

[Solkern]

In other news, some experts in WHO are speaking out against shutdowns and saying countries need to find other ways of dealing with the virus instead of shutdowns being their first response to outbreaks.

So weird. Who would have thought that shutting down the global economy for months wasn't very productive?

Who would have figured if we did a full shut down like they did in Thailand, Vietnam, and other SEA countries for 4 months.. people actually listened to health experts. We would probably be fully open and economy rocking right now like they are. Instead of the mess we are in now.

[Latrinsorm]

In other news, some experts in WHO are speaking out against shutdowns and saying countries need to find other ways of dealing with the virus instead of shutdowns being their first response to outbreaks.

So weird. Who would have thought that shutting down the global economy for months wasn't very productive?

Of course shutdowns shouldn't be the first response. The first response should be containment, as President George W. Bush did for SARS-CoV-1, and as countries including South Korea were able to do for SARS-CoV-2. If containment fails, then we must move on to mitigation, although again a shutdown isn't the first response in mitigation either. It is only when less onerous mitigation measures like contact tracing, mask wearing, travel restrictions etc. have failed that shutdowns must be employed.

In the US we don't have to keep shutting down because it's our first response, we have to keep shutting down because we have never once brought our overall levels low enough that weaker (and less damaging) mitigation measures will be enough.

If you have a fever of 100°, sure, start with a couple Tylenol.
If you have a fever of 106°, Tylenol ain't gonna cut it.
If you bring that fever down to 103° and it goes back up to 104°, you don't start with Tylenol because it only went up 1°.
You start with serious medicine because 104° is serious.