On the Gross Domestic Products

[Latrinsorm]

Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis we took a -33% GDP in the second quarter, putting us at -10% on the year. You may have read that this is the worst quarter on record (1946-present) but I thought a graph was in order. Here's the last 30 years of annual real GDP changes:

https://imgur.com/5nPwuwK.png

Germany, meanwhile, took a -10% in the second quarter, putting them at -3% for the year. Their economy of course only goes back 30 years which is why I used that timespan above, and here's how it looks for them:

https://imgur.com/4bH9XxW.png

This will be a once in a lifetime medical crisis.

It doesn't have to be a once in a lifetime economic crisis.

Do as the Germans do. We already are... kind of, half-heartedly, intermittently. Since it's well known that a pound of prevention is worth sixteen pounds of cure, we're probably going to have to turn the German approach up to 11, but the sooner we get started on that the less likely we'll need one that goes to 12.

[Tgo01]

Germany also didn't have a political party in charge of all major cities and most major states that went out of their way to make the shutdowns as damaging as possible to get this exact result they wanted in an election year.

Rather than "do as the Germans do" it should be more like "Let's put petty politics behind us and come together as Americans." But sadly one major political party would rather see the US burn than to give the sitting president another term.

[Solkern]

a bunch of nonsense

It’ll be ok Karen, it’ll be ok.
Tell us more about how well our economy is going, and how ALL medical experts have said children don’t easily pass Covid 19 to others.

[Latrinsorm]

Germany also didn't have a political party in charge of all major cities and most major states that went out of their way to make the shutdowns as damaging as possible to get this exact result they wanted in an election year.

Rather than "do as the Germans do" it should be more like "Let's put petty politics behind us and come together as Americans." But sadly one major political party would rather see the US burn than to give the sitting president another term.

New York City is at phase 4 reopening months before the election. Did Mayor de Blasio switch parties when I wasn't looking? After his Presidential "campaign" I wouldn't be surprised lmbo (laughing my b*** off) boom roasted.

New England is the one area of the country that's kind of doing an okay job on coronavirus:

https://imgur.com/bIgNt2k.png

Now Mayor Garcetti, he's clearly trying to destroy Los Angeles. I'd give you that one, but given how loudly he campaigns for the Olympics he's probably just a bozo.

[Seizer]

https://imgur.com/bIgNt2k.png
Interesting I didn’t realize we were this bad in Denver, Colorado. Breaking news for me. I’ll have to ask my brother who works at a local hospital how bad it is.

[Latrinsorm]

Interesting I didn’t realize we were this bad in Denver, Colorado. Breaking news for me. I’ll have to ask my brother who works at a local hospital how bad it is.

i'm going to have a more detailed post on this tomorrow but that site has already recalibrated their scale once a few weeks ago: the states doing the worst job were so far off their scale that it looked like they were the same as states doing a merely poor job. when 41 states are "trending poorly", it's clearly worth knowing the gradations within that

in that vein colorado is in uncontrolled spread which is very serious trouble, but it's not like you're in a texas/florida situation, and since they are starting to level off i'm hopeful other states won't reach it either, so the site hopefully won't be compelled to do another recalibration

[Latrinsorm]

I also thought it would be worthwhile to point out again that there is not now and has never been a choice between fighting against the pandemic and fighting for the economy.

Here's what Germany's daily cases per million capita per week look like:

https://imgur.com/8lxz4P1.png

This is a textbook case of the hammer and the dance (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56): it's impossible to eradicate the virus, and without a vaccine it's impossible to reach herd immunity, so every reopening will eventually cause a rise in cases. But if we get the cases low enough before reopening, we can have a long and safe opening before pulling back when cases start to rise, and repeat that until the vaccine is discovered and administered.

Here's what ours look like next to theirs:

https://imgur.com/sutpVzL.png

And you can see four major mistakes we made, which I have labelled geometrically:

https://imgur.com/Jx6gXZR.png

red circle - after being in almost perfect lockstep with their growth, we wait slightly too long to shut down and so explode past them
green rectangle - after waiting slightly too long to shut down, we don't shut down that thoroughly and so don't see nearly as sharp a decline
dark red triangle - and despite seeing about as many cases as Germany did at their peak (440 to 470) we decide to proceed with reopening, which was WAY WAY WAY too early
and that cute little cuddle-bug the blue pentagon? that's where Germany pulled back after seeing their daily cases increase allll the way to 44 per million

They didn't wait for hospitalizations to follow suit, they didn't wait for deaths to follow suit, they didn't smugly assure themselves that these cases were magically different from all the other cases. They saw the increase, they pulled back, they stopped the increase.

Our increase started at the very same time: from 06/08 to 06/22 they saw a 61% increase and we saw an 86% increase. The difference starts the next week, when their prudent common sense approach engendered a 23% decrease and our THESE COLORS DON RUN approach engendered a 27% increase. Had we done the German method we would have stopped the rebound cold, and Florida's single day death record would still be 83, set all the way back on April 28th.

But we didn't.

And Florida's record set all the way back on yesterday is 253.

.

Our choices are:

save the economy and save lives, or

endanger lives and kill the economy

Seems like an easy call to me!

[Tgo01]

without a vaccine it's impossible to reach herd immunity

Where do you get that idea from?

From everything I have read thus far this virus isn't unique, it's just new. So that means once you have the virus and recover from it you will build an immunity to it, how long that immunity lasts isn't yet known because, well, it's new.

[Bobmuhthol]

Germany also didn't have a political party in charge of all major cities and most major states that went out of their way to make the shutdowns as damaging as possible to get this exact result they wanted in an election year.

Rather than "do as the Germans do" it should be more like "Let's put petty politics behind us and come together as Americans." But sadly one major political party would rather see the US burn than to give the sitting president another term.Holy shit you never disappoint.

[Tgo01]

Holy shit you never disappoint.

Oh goodie, Bob is here armed with his dictionary and insults in a vain attempt to prove how intelligent he is.

[Bobmuhthol]

Oh goodie, you're a fucking idiot.

[Solkern]

Where do you get that idea from?

From everything I have read thus far this virus isn't unique, it's just new. So that means once you have the virus and recover from it you will build an immunity to it, how long that immunity lasts isn't yet known because, well, it's new.


Why don't we have herd immunity or a true vaccine for the flu? Like any RNA based viruses because they mutate and change, you can't have a true vaccine. Flu vaccines may only help deal with symptoms, and only work on previous strains of the flu. That's why we are worried every year with flu season.
Coronavirus is no different, it will and already has mutated.

There have already been reports that the antibodies last anywhere between a few hours to a couple of weeks.

What makes coronavirus special, is that it can spread when a person shows no symptoms.

[Tgo01]

Why don't we have herd immunity or a true vaccine for the flu?

Because as I'm 99.99% positive I have explained to you several times before, the seasonal flu virus mutates so much that the immune system often doesn't recognize it when the body gets infected again. This is why there is a flu vaccine each and every single year whereas a lot of other vaccines you only need once in your life and some others only require one or two boosters afterwards.

Again from what we know so far the SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn't mutate nearly as frequently as the seasonal flu virus does. If it does then yes we are pretty much fucked.


Coronavirus is no different, it will and already has mutated.

Every virus mutates. Stop fear mongering.

[Bobmuhthol]

Again from what we know so far the SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn't mutate nearly as frequently as the seasonal flu virus does. If it does then yes we are pretty much fucked.Well it already mutated at least once within a few months, and that mutation became the dominant infection strain, so uh... what the fuck are you talking about?

[Tgo01]

Well it already mutated at least once within a few months, and that mutation became the dominant infection strain, so uh... what the fuck are you talking about?


Every virus mutates. Stop fear mongering.

.

[Bobmuhthol]

If it does then yes we are pretty much fucked.But every virus mutates and you want us to stop fear mongering?

At how many deaths does being concerned for society stop being "fear mongering"? 673,000 globally is not enough?

[Latrinsorm]

Where do you get that idea from?

From everything I have read thus far this virus isn't unique, it's just new. So that means once you have the virus and recover from it you will build an immunity to it, how long that immunity lasts isn't yet known because, well, it's new.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/coronavirus-antibodies-may-last-only-2-to-3-months-after-infection-study-suggests.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/covid-antibodies-fall-dramatically-in-first-three-months

And of course it is still possible to reach herd immunity WITH a vaccine because vaccines can be administered every three months without entailing a death count in the millions.

Mutation is not the issue, period with useful antibodies is the issue.

[Tgo01]

But every virus mutates and you want us to stop fear mongering?

Your understanding of mutating viruses seems to come from movies where a virus mutating means humanity is doomed. Every virus mutates, the question is how often it mutates and whether or not those mutations are bad. Most mutations are just slight changes that don't really change anything at all, some mutations could actually make a virus less lethal and less infectious. Again so far from everything I have read the mutations from this virus have been very infrequent and haven't changed the virus much overall, which would indicate it is not mutating rapidly or drastically enough to be comparable to the seasonal flu. But I'll admit I don't read each and every single news article and research paper out there so if you have something to share that shows the virus is indeed mutating at levels comparable to the seasonal flu I would love to read it.


At how many deaths does being concerned for society stop being "fear mongering"? 673,000 globally is not enough?

My "fear mongering" comment was specifically in reference to yours and Solkern's comment that the virus mutating is bad. Again every virus mutates, to suggest that we're in trouble because it's mutating shows a severe lack of knowledge on this subject.

[Tgo01]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/coronavirus-antibodies-may-last-only-2-to-3-months-after-infection-study-suggests.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/covid-antibodies-fall-dramatically-in-first-three-months

And of course it is still possible to reach herd immunity WITH a vaccine because vaccines can be administered every three months without entailing a death count in the millions.

Mutation is not the issue, period with useful antibodies is the issue.

None of that suggests we can't reach herd immunity without a vaccine. We have no idea how well an immune system will respond to reinfection yet. Again I'm not saying everything is roses and sunshine, it could be really bad, I just took umbrage on your stance that the only way to reach herd immunity is with a vaccine.

[Bobmuhthol]

My "fear mongering" comment was specifically in reference to yours and Solkern's comment that the virus mutating is bad. Again every virus mutates, to suggest that we're in trouble because it's mutating shows a severe lack of knowledge on this subject.So you think you understand science better than I do? You honestly believe that, you fucking idiot?

[Latrinsorm]

None of that suggests we can't reach herd immunity without a vaccine. We have no idea how well an immune system will respond to reinfection yet. Again I'm not saying everything is roses and sunshine, it could be really bad, I just took umbrage on your stance that the only way to reach herd immunity is with a vaccine.

...antibodies are how the immune system works. If you don't have antibodies after three months, you're about as vulnerable as anyone who's never had the disease. People are already (https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity) getting COVID for a second time, which is exactly what we'd expect with a three-ish month window of immunity and our completely bungled response.

Take all the umbrage you want, it's a fact that herd immunity based on natural infection is DOA.

[Iwannajoinin]

So according to that map midwest states with under 200 deaths since the start are doing "worse" than New York?

[Tgo01]

So you think you understand science better than I do? You honestly believe that, you fucking idiot?

Please don't bring out the dictionary again :(

[Tgo01]

...antibodies are how the immune system works. If you don't have antibodies after three months, you're about as vulnerable as anyone who's never had the disease. People are already (https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity) getting COVID for a second time, which is exactly what we'd expect with a three-ish month window of immunity and our completely bungled response.

Take all the umbrage you want, it's a fact that herd immunity based on natural infection is DOA.

And in the other thread you mocked me for linking to a NYPost article and here you are with Vox of all things.

A few explanations for this one particular patient:

The first infection was really a cold or the flu and the test results were a false positive
This one particular patient has a shitty immune system that isn't typical of how most people respond to reinfections of COVID-19
This person has another underlying health condition that makes his immune response to SARS-CoV-2 shitty.

To suggest this one patient is emblematic of the typical person's immune response is crazy. Crazy I say!

[Tgo01]

So according to that map midwest states with under 200 deaths since the start are doing "worse" than New York?

Latrin is the master at manipulating data (or using data someone else has manipulated) to push his point.

Notice it's not saying how well each state has done so far as a whole, rather they are focusing on "trends."

So since NY, NJ, MI, PA, etc all dropped the ball and fucked up really badly they are now "trending" better compared to where they were at the height of their failures, whereas other states who did really well in the beginning and are now having just a slight uptick in cases are "trending" worse.

It's like giving special recognition to an F student because they managed to bring their grade up to a D- while shitting all over a normally A+ student because lately they have only been getting an A.

[Latrinsorm]

So according to that map midwest states with under 200 deaths since the start are doing "worse" than New York?

The key word there isn't "worse" but "are" - if you'll notice, the color codes refer to trending, or how the situation in a given state is changing right now.

New York in the first two weeks of July saw 9,052 new cases and in the second two weeks 10,364 for a 14% increase.
Missouri in the same time periods saw 6,899 and 20,008 respectively for a 190%(!!!) increase.

Not only is Missouri suffering more cases (not per capita! raw cases), its increase is higher by an order of magnitude. Throw in that Missouri only has about a third of the population of New York and it's easy to see how Missouri is going in a very bad direction right now and New York right now isn't.

I picked Missouri because I couldn't find any Midwest states with under 200 deaths, but if you have a specific state in mind let me know and I can look up the same figures.

[Latrinsorm]

And in the other thread you mocked me for linking to a NYPost article and here you are with Vox of all things.

A few explanations for this one particular patient:

The first infection was really a cold or the flu and the test results were a false positive
This one particular patient has a shitty immune system that isn't typical of how most people respond to reinfections of COVID-19
This person has another underlying health condition that makes his immune response to SARS-CoV-2 shitty.

To suggest this one patient is emblematic of the typical person's immune response is crazy. Crazy I say!

The bolded teal text in the Vox article denotes a "hyperlink", which if you click on will lead you to five related events, as well as an explanation of coronavirus immunity in general. Good luck!

[Tgo01]

I picked Missouri because I couldn't find any Midwest states with under 200 deaths

How hard did you look?

South Dakota: 129 deaths
North Dakota: 103 deaths

[Tgo01]

The bolded teal text in the Vox article denotes a "hyperlink", which if you click on will lead you to five related events, as well as an explanation of coronavirus immunity in general. Good luck!

A whole 5!

Well that settles it. We understand literally everything there is to know about this virus that we weren't even aware of a year ago.

[Iwannajoinin]

The key word there isn't "worse" but "are" - if you'll notice, the color codes refer to trending, or how the situation in a given state is changing right now.

New York in the first two weeks of July saw 9,052 new cases and in the second two weeks 10,364 for a 14% increase.
Missouri in the same time periods saw 6,899 and 20,008 respectively for a 190%(!!!) increase.

Not only is Missouri suffering more cases (not per capita! raw cases), its increase is higher by an order of magnitude. Throw in that Missouri only has about a third of the population of New York and it's easy to see how Missouri is going in a very bad direction right now and New York right now isn't.

I picked Missouri because I couldn't find any Midwest states with under 200 deaths, but if you have a specific state in mind let me know and I can look up the same figures.

The dakotas. Both if them.

[Latrinsorm]

For future reference I think it's worth pointing out, Iwannajoinin, that Tgo01 didn't even bother to look at the numbers. He presumed that Midwest states were "having just a slight uptick" when in easily verifiable fact Missouri has seen cases almost triple. He presumed that the site was comparing to "the height of their failures" when in easily verifiable fact they look at two week trends.

If you don't want someone to make a pres out of u and them, my suggestion is look at the numbers for yourself, or in the worst case rely on people who will actually do it, like me. Everyone here is fully capable of looking at two numbers and dividing, but if you don't want to do it at any particular time (which isn't shameful) you should probably avoid people who spitefully refuse to (which is pretty shameful).

[Iwannajoinin]

I understand how averages can be used to paint an incorrect picture. 50 percent increase of 20 to 30 is not really worse than a decrease of 3500 to 3400.

[Latrinsorm]

The dakotas. Both if them.

That's fine. I consider them more border than legitimately Midwest (like Pennsylvania) but I can recognize that's not a universally shared opinion.

For North Dakota the above numbers are 878 and 1,808 for 106%, and
for South Dakota the numbers are 746 and 1,113 for 49%.

In each case the recent increase is far higher than New York's, and in each case the state has about 1/25th of New York's population so the per capita rate is far higher too (though not as bad as Missouri's in either case).

With such small sample sizes it's relatively easier for each of the Dakotas to flicker in and out of dark red just due to small sample size noise, but fwiw I think North Dakota is legitimately improving and so should be back to plain red relatively soon.

[Tgo01]

He presumed that Midwest states were "having just a slight uptick" when in easily verifiable fact Missouri has seen cases almost triple.

I didn't say anything about Midwest states in my comment.

According to your chart Wyoming is "Trending poorly" even though yesterday they had a whole 58 new cases and the day before that 39.

[Latrinsorm]

I understand how averages can be used to paint an incorrect picture. 50 percent increase of 20 to 30 is not really worse than a decrease of 3500 to 3400.

Sure, but what about a 50% increase from 16,000 per capita to 24,000 vs. a 14% increase from 9,000 per capita to 10,000?

[Iwannajoinin]

Small sample size noise

[Latrinsorm]

I didn't say anything about Midwest states in my comment.

According to your chart Wyoming is "Trending poorly" even though yesterday they had a whole 58 new cases and the day before that 39.

Sheesh, people don't actually fall for that, do they? This place really has gone downhill since I left.

And I thought we were past this, but single day reports tend to not be useful due to quirks in reporting. Some states don't report on weekends at all, for instance, which significantly skews every other day. The best bet is to use at least week long data - according to the chart I've shared which is not mine and uses two week data, Wyoming has seen a 22% increase along with increasing positivity rates and a much higher per capita rate of infection.

Do you think it's telling that you have voluntarily chosen multiple states that absolutely proved my claims, and you still won't be satisfied?

[Tgo01]

And I thought we were past this, but single day reports tend to not be useful due to quirks in reporting. Some states don't report on weekends at all, for instance

Fine. For the past 14 days Wyoming has averaged 47 new daily cases, the highest single day was 69.

Point being that map you shared was designed to make it look like the entire US was knee deep in shit when they have states like Wyoming averaging 47 new cases a day labeled as "trending poorly."

Whether you, Fauci, or anyone else likes it or not, barring some miracle with a super effective vaccine rolling out soon and we can mobilize enough people to inoculate the entire population in a short amount of time, most people are eventually going to get this virus.

Remember the plea (lie) at the beginning of this shit was to "stay home to SLOW the spread", "stay home to FLATTEN THE CURVE." Yeah that's because it's impossible to stop this virus from spreading. It just doesn't work like that. The entire point was to slow the spread so we didn't overwhelm the hospital system. Now that we see the hospitals were nowhere even close to being overrun to the point of people literally dying in the streets waiting to be treated we are now being told we need to keep doing this shit indefinitely until a cure or vaccine can be found.

[Latrinsorm]

Small sample size noise

Sure, we can talk small sample size. We'll stick with South Dakota since it has the smaller increase, and so if it can't be explained by noise North Dakota can't either.

Our first reading is 8.4E-4 ± 6.2E-5 at 95% confidence and our second is 1.3E-3 ± 7.5E-5. In other words, the true first rate could just as easily have been 8 or 9 per 10,000, and the second could just as easily have been 13 or 12 per 10,000, so the highest the ratio could have been was ~13/~8 = 71% and the lowest it could have been was ~12/~9 = 31%.

Performing the same calculation with New York, we get a range of 19% to 9% (the range is much smaller because of course New York is much bigger).

Even the lowest statistically plausible rate for South Dakota is still much higher than the highest statistically plausible rate for New York.

South Dakota's increase is higher than New York's to a statistically significant degree.

QED

[Iwannajoinin]

Keep that tap dancing going to try and make under 200 deaths worse than New York. Yes your numbers are probably right but you know what disingenuous means so I'll leave it at that.

[Latrinsorm]

Fine. For the past 14 days Wyoming has averaged 47 new daily cases, the highest single day was 69.

Point being that map you shared was designed to make it look like the entire US was knee deep in shit when they have states like Wyoming averaging 47 new cases a day labeled as "trending poorly."

Whether you, Fauci, or anyone else likes it or not, barring some miracle with a super effective vaccine rolling out soon and we can mobilize enough people to inoculate the entire population in a short amount of time, most people are eventually going to get this virus.

Remember the plea (lie) at the beginning of this shit was to "stay home to SLOW the spread", "stay home to FLATTEN THE CURVE." Yeah that's because it's impossible to stop this virus from spreading. It just doesn't work like that. The entire point was to slow the spread so we didn't overwhelm the hospital system. Now that we see the hospitals were nowhere even close to being overrun to the point of people literally dying in the streets waiting to be treated we are now being told we need to keep doing this shit indefinitely until a cure or vaccine can be found.

A trend does not depend on the distance between a point and another arbitrary threshold, it only depends on the point and where that point was previously. There are way more Elanthians wearing spidersilk now than in the 1970s. Surely you can agree spidersilk is NOT, repeat NOT trending.

I don't like anything about this scenario fwiw, but it is simply not the case that we require a miracle to keep most people from getting the virus. As I demonstrated in another treatise (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125555-On-Plateaus), we only need to get a vaccine by 12/31/2020 and treat everyone with it in 9 months, and we'll only see about 15% of the population getting the virus. Half a million dead, again, is not an outcome I like, but 15% is way way way lower than 100%. The underlined numbers are not guarantees, but neither are they wildly optimistic fever dreams.

What is guaranteed is that if everyone gets the virus millions will die. No amount of snark from you will change that, and the American people have proven unequivocally that that death toll will not be tolerated. Senator McConnell is going to pass a stimulus of at least a trillion dollars - it's too little and too late, but clearly he is strongly abjuring the path of just giving up.

What does he know that you don't?

[Latrinsorm]

Keep that tap dancing going to try and make under 200 deaths worse than New York. Yes your numbers are probably right but you know what disingenuous means so I'll leave it at that.

The graphic I linked does not purport to show or compare total deaths in any way. Again, it explicitly uses the word "trending" multiple times.

It is true that New York was in worse shape in March than any Midwest (or quasi Midwestern) state. When your house is on fire right now, do you care that someone else's house was burning worse a few months ago? This is the critical question because I only brought this graphic up in the first place because Tgo01 claimed people wanted the outbreak worse to influence the election - since the election occurs in November, why would those people be making things better now?

[Iwannajoinin]

No you brought up the graph for the same reason you couldn't find the states with under 200 deaths. Disingenuousness

I say that with confidence since you got no issues getting the numbers you want to push. But couldn't confirm a total death count.

[Tgo01]

I don't like anything about this scenario fwiw, but it is simply not the case that we require a miracle to keep most people from getting the virus. As I demonstrated in another treatise (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125555-On-Plateaus), we only need to get a vaccine by 12/31/2020 and treat everyone with it in 9 months, and we'll only see about 15% of the population getting the virus. Half a million dead, again, is not an outcome I like, but 15% is way way way lower than 100%.

So we don't need a miracle...we just need a super effective and safe vaccine to be developed in less than a year when most vaccines take 5-20+ years to develop, we then need to be able to produce enough vaccines and mobilize enough people to inoculate the entire US population (and the world!) in 9 months. A medical feat which has never been done before in the entire history of the world.


What is guaranteed is that if everyone gets the virus millions will die.

Like worldwide? Probably. I'm not saying this to be callous or uncaring, it's just a simple fact. This virus is most likely here to stay. Millions of people die every year around the world from the flu and we have a vaccine for that.

It's time we stopped living in this fantasy world where we can magically stop a highly infectious virus from spreading.

[Latrinsorm]

No you brought up the graph for the same reason you couldn't find the states with under 200 deaths. Disingenuousness

I say that with confidence since you got no issues getting the numbers you want to push. But couldn't confirm a total death count.

I found ten states with under 200 deaths, I just don't personally consider any of them Midwestern, and I'm not alone in that btw. Glancing around online it looks about 50/50 for people to consider the Dakotas Midwest or not, and then some people also consider Montana and Wyoming (also sub 200er) Midwestern and I think they're not even close. But in the end none of this matters: the Dakotas are states that are trending worse than New York! I'm not telling you to trust that I wouldn't purposefully hide something that proved me wrong. (I wouldn't, but I'm not telling you to trust that.) I'm telling you it makes no sense to accuse me of purposefully hiding something that proves me right.

[Solkern]

So we don't need a miracle...we just need a super effective and safe vaccine to be developed in less than a year when most vaccines take 5-20+ years to develop, we then need to be able to produce enough vaccines and mobilize enough people to inoculate the entire US population (and the world!) in 9 months. A medical feat which has never been done before in the entire history of the world.



Like worldwide? Probably. I'm not saying this to be callous or uncaring, it's just a simple fact. This virus is most likely here to stay. Millions of people die every year around the world from the flu and we have a vaccine for that.

It's time we stopped living in this fantasy world where we can magically stop a highly infectious virus from spreading.

Tgo, one simple question. If the lockdown is being used as a tool for the democrats to swing the election in their favor. Why is New York reopening(currently on phase 4)? Why aren’t they continuing to keep the state shut down?
I think ALL of new England is currently reopening and in phase 4/5.

[Tgo01]

Tgo, one simple question. If the lockdown is being used as a tool for the democrats to swing the election in their favor. Why is New York reopening(currently on phase 4)? Why aren’t they continuing to keep the state shut down?
I think ALL of new England is currently reopening and in phase 4/5.

A) The damage is already done.
B) These states STILL haven't reopened, not even close.

I'm pretty sure California just recently ordered all restaurants and bars to close again. Even in NY they are limited to 50% capacity. I think churches are still being fucked over by these states.

Let's also not forget

C) The states ran out of money.

Remember that huge push a couple of months ago where states like NY, NJ, and MI were demanding the federal government bail them out? You think that was just for shits and giggles? They wanted to keep their states shut down and wanted the federal government to pay them to do it. Democrat politicians may be evil but they aren't dumb.

Last but not least

D) They let the cat out of the bag with not only allowing mass protests and riots but actively encouraging them.

Kind of hard to tell everyone they need to stay home then tell people they are allowed to leave their home to riot and protest.

[Iwannajoinin]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midwestern_United_States


Your not hiding anything your just being disingenuous like a stated earlier. One state has over 30k deaths and one has under 200. I don't give a shit about trending numbers from small sample size when the numbers that really matter are that far apart.

[Latrinsorm]

So we don't need a miracle...we just need a super effective and safe vaccine to be developed in less than a year when most vaccines take 5-20+ years to develop, we then need to be able to produce enough vaccines and mobilize enough people to inoculate the entire US population (and the world!) in 9 months. A medical feat which has never been done before in the entire history of the world.



Like worldwide? Probably. I'm not saying this to be callous or uncaring, it's just a simple fact. This virus is most likely here to stay. Millions of people die every year around the world from the flu and we have a vaccine for that.

It's time we stopped living in this fantasy world where we can magically stop a highly infectious virus from spreading.

Not super effective, just usual vaccine effectiveness. (For the record we also aren't magically stopping the virus, a cloth mask is at best a masterwork item, it's still +0 for magical item purposes.)

We will already have produced enough vaccines by January 2021. I'm not sure how you haven't heard this, but companies are producing (and the US government is buying) enough doses of every promising vaccine candidate on the off chance it proves useful. This would have been a significant delay if we weren't doing it, but (at enormous expense) we have bypassed it.

Inoculating the entire US population is going to take time, but we managed national polio vaccination in about two years and that was in the 50s. In that context I don't think nine months is an unreasonable estimate - it works out to about 5 inoculations per CVS per hour, doesn't seem out of the question. Maybe it takes twelve, maybe it takes six, maybe it takes fifteen. The key is that the only loss compared to the "YOLO" stratagem is it offends your theory of macroeconomics and fiscal policy. We can live with that, and we will. We can't live with millions of needlessly dead Americans, and we won't.

[Tgo01]

Not super effective, just usual vaccine effectiveness.

Like the flu vaccine which wavers between 30-50% effectiveness? Will that allow us to achieve herd immunity?

[Bobmuhthol]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midwestern_United_States


Your not hiding anything your just being disingenuous like a stated earlier. One state has over 30k deaths and one has under 200. I don't give a shit about trending numbers from small sample size when the numbers that really matter are that far apart."I don't give a shit about math or rates of change, if there are more absolute deaths in a larger state then it is disingenuous to make an accurate claim about relative deaths!" - A fucking idiot.

Also, the fact that there are hundreds of deaths in one sample, but tens of thousands of deaths in a much larger sample, does not magically create statistical noise around "small samples." If there is only 1 death in a sample of 1,000,000 observations, we might not be able to tell the difference between a true rate of 1 per million or 2 per million, but we definitely don't have the problem of wondering if it's 1% (10,000 per million). It obviously ain't 1%. The sample size is the denominator (you fucking idiot), and the denominator of state population is not too small to perform statistical analysis.

[Iwannajoinin]

"I don't give a shit about math or rates of change, if there are more absolute deaths in a larger state then it is disingenuous to make an accurate claim about relative deaths!" - A fucking idiot.

Hi bob! You think New York is handling the virus better than north Dakota? I need a smart person's input and I couldn't help but think of you!

Yes, no, or apparently please!

[Latrinsorm]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midwestern_United_States


Your not hiding anything your just being disingenuous like a stated earlier. One state has over 30k deaths and one has under 200. I don't give a shit about trending numbers from small sample size when the numbers that really matter are that far apart.

It may surprise you to learn that not everyone agrees with Wikipedia in all cases, and it so happens that geography is one of those cases. Don't believe me! Here (https://www.vox.com/2016/1/28/10861176/great-plains-midwest) is first hand testimony from someone who believes (as you do!) that the Dakotas are in the Midwest but has faced vehement opposition from other people (who are not me). You can find many more online, I promise you.

If you'll recall, I never said you should care about trending numbers. I only said that these are trending numbers, these are clearly labeled as trending numbers, these are directly relevant to the specific point Tgo01 (whom I specifically quoted) brought up, and that small sample size effects are arithmetically insufficient to explain the difference in trends.

I don't think you're going to listen to any of this, but I do think it would be helpful for you to learn how to calculate small sample size effects yourself, so here it is:
For any rate x/y, the 95% standard deviation is given by 2*sqrt(x/y * (1-x/y) * y), and dividing that in turn by y lets you express it in terms of percentage as I did above.
People say "small sample size" a lot.
Now you know how to check whether they're full of baloney or not.
Isn't that fun?
Don't you wonder why nobody you've ever heard say small sample size deigned to tell you how to actually do it?
Look at that equation again, it takes 10 seconds to punch that into the calculator or spreadsheet application of your choice.
It's almost like they were trying to hide something, eh? :)

[Bobmuhthol]

Hi bob! You think New York is handling the virus better than north Dakota? I need a smart person's input and I couldn't help but think of you!

Yes, no, or apparently please!The rate of change of infections is worse in North Dakota than it is in New York.

[Iwannajoinin]

It's not wikipedia defining the midwest is the census bureau. I didnt read further than that since you obviously didnt read the shit I posted either.

[Iwannajoinin]

The rate of change of infections is worse in North Dakota than it is in New York.

Thanks bob!

[Latrinsorm]

Like the flu vaccine which wavers between 30-50% effectiveness? Will that allow us to achieve herd immunity?

The flu vaccine is an unusually ineffective vaccine, so no, not like the flu vaccine. Luckily influenza is extremely unrelated to coronaviruses (separate phylum, which is only one step under kingdom for those of us who forgot which king came over from ol' wossname sailing), so it is more likely the coronavirus vaccine will be as effective as the poliovirus vaccine with which it shares a phylum AND class.

Guess the people telling you the coronavirus was just the flu were even more wrong than you thought, huh? ;D

[Latrinsorm]

It's not wikipedia defining the midwest is the census bureau. I didnt read further than that since you obviously didnt read the shit I posted either.

It may also surprise you to learn not everyone agrees with the U.S. Government in all cases. You may recall a bit of a tiff that recently went all the way to the Supreme Court over the Census itself.

If you'd like to restate one thing you feel I didn't read, I'll be happy to restate the one thing I directly responded to it with! :D

[Tgo01]

so it is more likely the coronavirus vaccine will be as effective as the poliovirus vaccine with which it shares a phylum AND class.

We don't even have a vaccine yet and you're already determined it will be way more effective than the flu vaccine and we can produce enough dosages and inoculate the whole US in 9 months.

Just curious but do you consult a crystal ball or a Magic 8-Ball these days?

[Tgo01]

It may also surprise you to learn not everyone agrees with the U.S. Government in all cases. You may recall a bit of a tiff that recently went all the way to the Supreme Court over the Census itself.

If you'd like to restate one thing you feel I didn't read, I'll be happy to restate the one thing I directly responded to it with! :D

Iwannajoinin, don't get sucked in to Latrin's trap. This is his second greatest superpower: deflection.

Just look at him. You rightly called him out on missing North Dakota and South Dakota and now he has you roped in on getting into an argument about whether or not North Dakota or South Dakota are even part of the Midwest.

Don't fall for it! Turn back! Run!

[Iwannajoinin]

So crazy people bitching online trump the actual definition?
I guess that is normal for people on the internet to think.

I say you didnt read it because you were shitting on wikipedia not the government anout label until I pointed out your mistake? Contextual clues? Maybe you just missed my point initially, I dunno. Stupid or disingenuous. Pick which one you want me to label you as. I'll honor it.

[Iwannajoinin]

Shhhh...I know dont scare them off i got an hour left to work

[Latrinsorm]

We don't even have a vaccine yet and you're already determined it will be way more effective than the flu vaccine and we can produce enough dosages and inoculate the whole US in 9 months.

Just curious but do you consult a crystal ball or a Magic 8-Ball these days?

The word "likely" cannot be substituted with "will". If I say it is likely to rain, for example, I am not saying you will get wet.

I can't stress this enough, we are already producing doses. No one can produce 300 million doses in a day, but we don't have to, we only have to produce that many in six months starting a month ago. That's not easy and it's definitely not cheap, but it's going to be done, it's in the bag.

I have not determined that the US can be inoculated in nine months, I've listened to people better informed than me who have determined that, and I've confirmed arithmetically that it's plausible. I encourage you to try doing either of those things! :D

[Latrinsorm]

So crazy people bitching online trump the actual definition?
I guess that is normal for people on the internet to think.

I say you didnt read it because you were shitting on wikipedia not the government anout label until I pointed out your mistake? Contextual clues? Maybe you just missed my point initially, I dunno. Stupid or disingenuous. Pick which one you want me to label you as. I'll honor it.

If enough people disagree with any authority's definition, yes, the definition becomes disputed or even changes entirely. That's how words work.

I think you have some typos in your second paragraph so I'm not sure what you're referring to. Would you like to clarify?

[Iwannajoinin]

If enough people disagree with any authority's definition, yes, the definition becomes disputed or even changes entirely. That's how words work.

I think you have some typos in your second paragraph so I'm not sure what you're referring to. Would you like to clarify?

So disingenuous it is then.
And no I dont care if I've misspelled words I can use reading comprehension and contextual clues. Hopefully your math on the vaccine is better than your reading comprehension of a few lines of text.

[FlayedAngel]

Germany also didn't have a political party in charge of all major cities and most major states that went out of their way to make the shutdowns as damaging as possible to get this exact result they wanted in an election year.

Rather than "do as the Germans do" it should be more like "Let's put petty politics behind us and come together as Americans." But sadly one major political party would rather see the US burn than to give the sitting president another term.
https://i.imgflip.com/2p0bmt.jpg



Just look at him. You rightly called him out on missing North Dakota and South Dakota and now he has you roped in on getting into an argument about whether or not North Dakota or South Dakota are even part of the Midwest.

Latrin explained the lack of inclusion, provided the general rationale behind it, and offered to reassess... but sure, dude.



So crazy people bitching online trump the actual definition?
I guess that is normal for people on the internet to think.
I say you didnt read it because you were shitting on wikipedia not the government anout label until I pointed out your mistake? Contextual clues? Maybe you just missed my point initially, I dunno. Stupid or disingenuous. Pick which one you want me to label you as. I'll honor it.

So disingenuous it is then.
And no I dont care if I've misspelled words I can use reading comprehension and contextual clues. Hopefully your math on the vaccine is better than your reading comprehension of a few lines of text.
My reading comprehension is fine, and your sentence still made very little inherent grammatical or structural sense -- asking you to rephrase it was being generous, not disingenuous.



Tell us more about how well our economy is going, and how ALL medical experts have said children don’t easily pass Covid 19 to others.
https://i.redd.it/9tlkuj9pfsd51.gif

[Solkern]

https://i.redd.it/9tlkuj9pfsd51.gif


I’m still waiting for tgo, to show us where ALL medical experts agreed and said children don’t spread COVID easily to others.

[Latrinsorm]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is currently projecting a 35.3% third quarter annualized real GDP increase. (https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow) This is big, if true! And since in the last thread (http://forum.gsplayers.com/showthread.php?125271-This-is-the-End&p=2160212#post2160212) their projection of -35.2% turned out to be quite close to the actual decline of -31.4% (https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-and-gdp-industry-annual), it seems reasonable to take them seriously at this point. So it's big! It's big good news.

It's also unbelievably terrible news, because it means the economy grew by $1.7 trillion only after the federal government put $2.2 trillion into it (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CARES_Act), and we are currently incapable of putting any more such money into it whatsoever. It's not quite as bad as it sounds because such stimulus programs tend to have a broad range of effect, as illustrated below:

https://www.clevelandfed.org/~/media/content/newsroom%20and%20events/publications/economic%20commentary/2014/ec%20201409%20why%20do%20economists%20still%20disa gree%20over%20government%20spending%20multipliers/ec%20201409%20why%20do%20economists%20still%20disa gree%20over%20government%20spending%20multipliers% 20img03.jpg?la=en

But as that site also shows, it's as bad as it sounds after all because during recessions government spending has a multiplier effect, so that $2.2t was really worth about $3.9t of real GDP. Yikes!

.

There is an argument to be made to endanger human lives for the sake of the economy: if we sacrificed 1,000 lives to receive $10,000,000,000,000, there is a logic there.

But Germany's 2020 GDP (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/14/germanys-2020-growth-forecasts-are-downgraded.html#:~:text=They%20now%20expect%20GDP% 20to,%2C%20and%202.7%25%20in%202022.) is projected to see the same -5% as we are (https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast/overview.html).

So we sacrificed 187,000 lives (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries) to receive $0.

There's no logic there.

[Suppa Hobbit Mage]

This guy made more sense that Chicken Little.

[Latrinsorm]

...that Chicken Little what?